Week 1 Discussion Thread

2daBank said:
what you think about that ml parlay for tonight? feels pretty safe to me!! i dont see any chance in hell of the buckeyes losing, i actually think they cover im just not super thrilled with the idea of laying 2 tds on the road in a conf game as opener!! i like nc st a lot and south florida looks like ass, i dunno as much bout ecu this year but i trust app st to continue being solid..
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i will say i didnt realize app st has went from -13 down to -9 currently, that a little concerning, should i be worried about ecu?
 
2daBank said:
what you think about that ml parlay for tonight? feels pretty safe to me!! i dont see any chance in hell of the buckeyes losing, i actually think they cover im just not super thrilled with the idea of laying 2 tds on the road in a conf game as opener!! i like nc st a lot and south florida looks like ass, i dunno as much bout ecu this year but i trust app st to continue being solid..
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I might jump on it myself. Thinking about laying it with appy now that it’s under 10
 
twinkie13 said:
First blush:

That seems a tad short for Oklahoma at Turchin. Maybe Oklahoma will be working the kinks out, but I would’ve thought 24 at the least.

I haven’t looked at Indiana, but did they lose a bunch off the team? Iowa usually solid but for the 1st game maybe home dawgs worth a look.

Pitt laying 36 to anyone is odd. Don’t know much about UMASS

UGA prolly get my money

Oregon St getting the slash looks appealing
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umass been the kind of team their opponents pretty much name the score.. whether that means pitt winning by 40 i dunno but i certainly wouldnt look to back umass!! pitt front 7 is always nasty so gotta think unlikely umass scores more than once.. i think pitt gonna be pretty good, i like their qb and as i said their defensive front is always strong!!

i think hoosiers return damn near everyone including pennix who got hurt last season.. im not sure what kind of season hoosiers gonna have? lot of ppl high on them but there is def the thought among lot of sharp ppl that they fall back off as a team like them often struggle to maintain that level of success after a impressive season where they kinda came out of nowhere. they kinda a watch and see type of team for me,, big10 never been a real strong conference for me anyways, lol..


how is lsu defense gonna look this year twink? i cant imagine they gonna allow ucla to gash them in the run game like they did vs hawaii!! if tigers run defense is strong i think chip kelly offense will struggle as bruins qb is a wildly inconsistent passer imo.. the under seems like the best play to me in that one,,, that -3 line screams your squad might be in some trouble!! or the "sharps" are crazy!! lol
 
JROCK1966 said:
Per PS:

Offense: "This year they have 8 starters back including Penix and should be more potent."
Defense: "This year 9 starters are back including my #5 LB and #7 DB's in the country. They are my #5 Defense!"
2021: "This year they have 17 starters returning (most in 6 years) and they get Ohio State at home. This team believes in Tom Allen and all 9 sets of my power ratings call for at least a 9-win season for the first time since 1967."
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that what makes this year so exciting,,, dont think we ever seen anything like this with so many teams returning so many kids!!
 
s--k said:
Regarding Indiana and Iowa, a few comments (most from reading Phil's book):

Iowa D has not allowed more than 25 points for 22 consecutive games (longest streak in NCAA)

Phil Steele ranks their DB unit 9th nationally

Indiana did go 2-0 ATS as away fav last year and was 4-0 ATS overall on the road 2020 (3-1 SU). IU was strong on the road in 2019 as well 0-2 ATS as away favs, but 2-0 SU...went 3-0 ATS as away dog with 1 upset, making them 3-2 SU 2019 = 6-3 SU on the road last 2 years (3 SU losses MSU/OSU/PSU).

Phil Steele must have a misprint on his Big Ten Unit Rankings as he labels IU DBs #11 yet says they are the 7th best group nationally. So perhaps he means IU has B1G's #1 DB unit (he has Iowa DB unit #2 in the league).

The transformation IU has had under Allen on defense is quite amazing, unfortunately we haven't seen a full season of Pennix at QB for the O. Last year they forgot how to run the ball and the OL doesn't look overwhelming (Phil Steele 10th OL unit in B1G).

Under could make sense.
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under always feels like a decent play in iowa games!! as i mentioned in the dog thread i think unders as a whole will be pretty solid this week, majority of the teams playing in week 0 offenses got off to fairly slow starts,,
 
couple weeks ago i thought i was gonna be all over ULL vs texas but im not so sure anymore. feel like u la la is a awful trendy dog and honestly i just dont know what texas is gonna look like? anyone feel strongly about that game one way or the other?
 
Marsski said:
Not sure what you can get down on W Kentucky vs UT Martin in week 1...but they are way under the radar generally with a whole new offense imported from Houston Baptist including OC, good QB, and 3 Wr. Will be looking to play overs/TT overs with them early...This is an Air Raid offense that threw for 567 @ Texas Tech last fall...

wkusports.com

Record-Setting Transfer Quarterback Bailey Zappe Signs With WKU Football - Western Kentucky University Athletics

His 567 pass yards this season at Texas Tech were the most ever for an FCS player against an FBS defense.
wkusports.com wkusports.com
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i got -22 and 57 total, no team totals. what you thinking far as score in this one?
 
2daBank said:
couple weeks ago i thought i was gonna be all over ULL vs texas but im not so sure anymore. feel like u la la is a awful trendy dog and honestly i just dont know what texas is gonna look like? anyone feel strongly about that game one way or the other?
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Feel the same about it all
 
spottie2935 said:
In weeks 1 or 2 the Irish are 0-7 ATS as road chalk. I was reading about the QB situation. They have a transfer in from Wisky. sat out last season. Looks to be decent, steady type but Wisky is known for strong running running attack first. Irish were only 6-6 ATS last season and I predict worse than .500 ATS this season. Surely as I always do Irish are horrible as home chalk, one of my bread and butter fades.
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i wish i knew wtf to expect from the noles? i really hope Norvell gets them headed in the right direction as i like it better when some these acc teams are strong. you would think with the kind of dudes he should be able to recruit to fsu he outta get his offense humming sooner than later. that defense been so bad of late tho..
 
KJ said:
So here goes...he was a hard purchase at UH, last year should be tossed for what it was

He will be better than the UNC QB stats wise, not that it means he's better, but I trust him more than anyone in the ACC when the game is on the line. Giving that many points to him is absurd imo.
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he is coming off a pretty bad injury tho isnt he? hard to know what to expect? during the spring game it sounded like they wernt sure he be ready for the opener? by all accounts sounds like bama defense gonna be nasty, tough 1st game for a kid coming back from injury. i like hunt's idea of the canes team total under,, other than that i think ill be looking for a chance to back bama in the second half (total opposite of last year where the 1st half was the way to go!),, canes defensive front appears to be rather smallish so i gotta think bama is gonna lean on them with their big oline the entire game and not sure canes be able to hold up as the game goes..
 
2daBank said:
umass been the kind of team their opponents pretty much name the score.. whether that means pitt winning by 40 i dunno but i certainly wouldnt look to back umass!! pitt front 7 is always nasty so gotta think unlikely umass scores more than once.. i think pitt gonna be pretty good, i like their qb and as i said their defensive front is always strong!!

i think hoosiers return damn near everyone including pennix who got hurt last season.. im not sure what kind of season hoosiers gonna have? lot of ppl high on them but there is def the thought among lot of sharp ppl that they fall back off as a team like them often struggle to maintain that level of success after a impressive season where they kinda came out of nowhere. they kinda a watch and see type of team for me,, big10 never been a real strong conference for me anyways, lol..


how is lsu defense gonna look this year twink? i cant imagine they gonna allow ucla to gash them in the run game like they did vs hawaii!! if tigers run defense is strong i think chip kelly offense will struggle as bruins qb is a wildly inconsistent passer imo.. the under seems like the best play to me in that one,,, that -3 line screams your squad might be in some trouble!! or the "sharps" are crazy!! lol
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Defense should be way better
 
gsro said:
is this real life? banksy is alive?

tosu, nc state and boise for me tonight.
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yep, still breathing! lol

i like boise (along with those others in a ml parlay) also.. ucf offense looks to be scary good but getting 6.5 with boise in a game like this impossible to pass up!! gotta figure boise should be able to score and they def bring the better defense into the game..
 
2daBank said:
yep, still breathing! lol

i like boise (along with those others in a ml parlay) also.. ucf offense looks to be scary good but getting 6.5 with boise in a game like this impossible to pass up!! gotta figure boise should be able to score and they def bring the better defense into the game..
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nevr forget what is the UCF defense..
 
twinkie13 said:
Defense should be way better
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that what im assuming, i just cant picture bruins running all over them,. and like i said if tigers able to slow the running game down i dont think DTR will be able to consistently move the chains with his arm, he just not all that accurate of a passer and nothing i saw last week screamed improvement as he was sailing throws to wide open guys.. few weeks ago i was leaning ucla but after watching them last week im not sold on that at all!! i do think it a big advantage for the teams who got a game in week 0 but i cant back them only getting 3 points,, the total feels a td too high tho..
 
survive&advance said:
It won’t happen but if I were Diaz I would honestly think about sitting King week 1. You aren’t beating bama with him anyways imo, might as well not jeopardize his health first game of a long season
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i could have swore when i watched canes spring game they were saying they wernt sure if he be back for this game? obviously it appears he is but i certainly dont expect a bunch out of him..
 
s--k said:
VT Justin Fuente said that QB Braxton Burmeister is the 3rd or 4th best athlete on the team. Fuente has always been high on that kid. I assume that is hyperbole, I don't doubt the kid has athleticism, but compared to other skill players or impact players on D the 3rd or 4th best on the entire team?
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that kinda screamed to me he doesnt have many great athletes on this squad. lol
 
carolinablue said:
As long as we play up to our ability and don’t get rattled by the environment or make a bad mistake early, we should take care of business against the Hokies as they don’t have the talent to hang with us for sixty minutes in my opinion. I am thinking something like 45-24 if we play our game, 35-31 if we let them stick around.
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the environment is def my biggest concern, that place on a friday night be crazy, this year be even more obnoxious id assume.. im super high on your heels tho so ill be on them even if this line scares me a bit along with breaking in new skill guys at a tough place to play..
 
carolinablue said:
I actually looked at the UM total and the UNC total as both seemed high to me at 67, but I suck at unders so what do I know...
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if week 0 was any kind of indicator unders should be pretty solid bets this weekend, maybe 1st half more so than full game?
 
KJ said:
If you want an actual angle, Willie will run wishbone into the ground. Enjoy the under in this puppy, there will not be a bunch of plays
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Offense is different now with Pratt at QB. If Tulane wants to keep some 1s in the game second half they should score. And I think it is feasible that Riley looks to mass subs in the second half assuming they are up by 5 scores. I'd probably rather have OU 1st H than full game or look game over.
 
2daBank said:
ucf offense could be scary good this year but damn, laying 6.5 to boise? feel like you cant go wrong taking boise+6.5 in a game like this, they always show up!!
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I think UCF is in better spot tonight but man if I can get a Boise+7 I might not be able to turn that away.
 
2daBank said:
couple weeks ago i thought i was gonna be all over ULL vs texas but im not so sure anymore. feel like u la la is a awful trendy dog and honestly i just dont know what texas is gonna look like? anyone feel strongly about that game one way or the other?
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Honestly, as crazy as this sounds, I didn't think ULL was quite as good as they were made out to be last year. Good yeah, great no. At the very least, not consistently very good. Too many unknowns with Texas to try and take them.
 
Marsski mentioned the crowd thing tonight, for some of these teams, playing in front of loud passionate fan bases for the first time is going to kick it up a notch. Thinking of Utah as one, first half atleast and their overall depth might be good enough I lay full game points vs good Weber St team. Rice Eccles is going to be amazing tonight. They had stadium construction last year, closing in one end or something. Supposed to make it louder.
 
2daBank said:
that kinda screamed to me he doesnt have many great athletes on this squad. lol
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Yeah it was odd if he actually meant it in a literal sense. There is something happening with so many player defections lately in Hokieland that tells me something isn't right there.
 
s--k said:
Honestly, as crazy as this sounds, I didn't think ULL was quite as good as they were made out to be last year. Good yeah, great no. At the very least, not consistently very good. Too many unknowns with Texas to try and take them.
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i understand what you saying, lewis consistency as a passer leaves something to be desired to say the least. them cashing a ml ticket for me against iowa st at beginning the year had me infatuated with them, lol... i do worry they getting too much respect now and yea i have no clue what the horns gonna look like under coach sark.. i like these non power 5 schools when they come out of nowhere, once they get on the map i fall out of love with them (kinda like my women!)... im afraid once san jose st gives usc everything they want they gonna get a lot of attention, i do have a season win total over on them so i guess if they start getting too much respect on the lines at least i still have that to root for and maybe some chances to fade as favs..

nevada another one that ppl noticing now, i was hoping to get more than +3 against Cal, that one i liked more a few weeks ago but im not sure bout Cal, they were supposed to take a jump last season but never got going or even much a chance. so im little worried cal could be pretty good. i sure do like wolfpack offense tho!!! i took their team total over also, id love for them to beat either Cal or k-st, they get one of those and they shouldnt have a problem getting to 8 wins!!
 
2daBank said:
nevada another one that ppl noticing now, i was hoping to get more than +3 against Cal, that one i liked more a few weeks ago but im not sure bout Cal, they were supposed to take a jump last season but never got going or even much a chance. so im little worried cal could be pretty good. i sure do like wolfpack offense tho!!! i took their team total over also, id love for them to beat either Cal or k-st, they get one of those and they shouldnt have a problem getting to 8 wins!!
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Cal was picked to finish 2nd in the North last year. Don't know without covid if that would've actually happened, maybe. They are exactly the same team this year with one very big exception. No Brett Johnson in the middle of the DL, he might be their best player on the team (off field injury this spring).

Nevada has beat them two straight, so no doubt Cal will be as ready as they can be. Cal HC Justin Wilcox has had a lot of success vs air raid teams (beat ranked Wazzou teams as TD+ to DD dogs in 17 and 18 and beat an unranked Wazzou team as a TD dog in 2019!). But Nevada isn't quite like a Mike Leach Wazzou team, they are better in multiple ways. Tough game.
 
s--k said:
Cal was picked to finish 2nd in the North last year. Don't know without covid if that would've actually happened, maybe. They are exactly the same team this year with one very big exception. No Brett Johnson in the middle of the DL, he might be their best player on the team (off field injury this spring).

Nevada has beat them two straight, so no doubt Cal will be as ready as they can be. Cal HC Justin Wilcox has had a lot of success vs air raid teams (beat ranked Wazzou teams as TD+ to DD dogs in 17 and 18 and beat an unranked Wazzou team as a TD dog in 2019!). But Nevada isn't quite like a Mike Leach Wazzou team, they are better in multiple ways. Tough game.
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yea i recall guys being high on cal last year but obviously didnt really pan out,, hard to read anything into last year tho,, i know the d was supposed to be really good..
 
FWIW and I do not know if it has been mentioned.

Watched Sarkisian's show yesterday. He made it clear that while Hudson Card is the starter there will also be playing time for Casey Thompson
 
Just checked weather for all games tonight, nothing windy at all that I see light rain possible in Evanston, Boulder, Ft Collins

Only one that seems significant is in Lawrence, seeing heavy rain on periodically to all game and flash flood watch tonight
 
It amazes me that there was no line movement upon the announcement that Tyler Davis was essentially doubtful for CoViD-related reasons. He's easily the second-most-important player on the team, surely worth a 7-point line adjustment. perhaps he will still be able to play. From a random guy on Tigernet:

Since the ACC and SEC does not require testing of vaccinated players, I am hearing that he will be good to go if he can post a negative test before Saturday. Someone better barely stick that Q-Tip to the tip of his nostril.

Also, Clemson has got to stop testing vaccinated students every week moving forward or this football season is going to be very stressful. No other school in the ACC, besides Duke, is doing this to vaccinated students.
 
Agree with random tigernet guy, testing vaccinated players is stupid - just let them play without testing
 
Knamelis said:
Great call here - if you have time interested in your thoughts on Ohio vs Cuse, thanks!
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Not sure what to expect in game 1 of the Albin era. I lean to the over 55 because I think Bobcats running attack will be effective early with Tuggle and open up the passing game for Rourke downfield. Rogers will also play some in a rush heavy package....he's pretty athletic but passing was shaky last year. Bobcats D is missing some key players from last year and wouldn't be surprised if Syracuse has plenty of time in the pocket as our pass rush was dismal last year. I think we see some big plays both ways, Syracuse has a pretty good back as well...See it like 31-28ish...I may be on the over but probably won't play a side
 
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