Week 1 Discussion Thread

No doubt the weakest should be ULM. No matter who their coaches are, that team looks like a continual trainwreck. I think Akron will be better for sure if they get Nelson back at QB, they showed marked improvement last season, even if it was harder to see in final scores, they were much better. Kent has the best QB in the league but a horrible D. Considering the lines, I might look towards first half options depending what they are. ULM should be among the worst teams in the country, Kent is respectable midmajor type and Akron might be better than expected end of year. Kentucky I would think is the best play among those.
 
s--k said:
No doubt the weakest should be ULM. No matter who their coaches are, that team looks like a continual trainwreck. I think Akron will be better for sure if they get Nelson back at QB, they showed marked improvement last season, even if it was harder to see in final scores, they were much better. Kent has the best QB in the league but a horrible D. Considering the lines, I might look towards first half options depending what they are. ULM should be among the worst teams in the country, Kent is respectable midmajor type and Akron might be better than expected end of year. Kentucky I would think is the best play among those.
Click to expand...
I am pretty much aligned with you on that as I think Kentucky at 30.5 or less will probably make the cut for me. Auburn May make it at 37.5 or less while I think I won’t be on A&M unless that one comes down under 28 but I don’t see that happening. Appreciate the thoughts, good stuff man.
 
KJ said:
I'd be more worried about a stationary QB. I don't know about OL, I don't think it's the game changer, I know that.

Love Miami D vs this offense and a playmaking QB. Think it's a one score game come crunch time
Click to expand...

You very well could be right. On the other hand, you are going up against Saban in an opener:

14-0 SU (+29 ppg)
12-2 ATS (covering by almost 8 ppg)

Additionally:
Your savior, QB King, off of major knee surgery 8 months hence (soon as this game starts going south, he could get pulled, eliminating the back door)
Your coach is Manny Diaz, he is in over his head but has at least upgraded his staff from year 1
'Canes not even competitive in their 2 toughest games last year (Clemson, UNC), see point right above ^^^

It may lose, but I am perfectly happy with my Tide -13 ticket
 
It won’t happen but if I were Diaz I would honestly think about sitting King week 1. You aren’t beating bama with him anyways imo, might as well not jeopardize his health first game of a long season
 
survive&advance said:
It won’t happen but if I were Diaz I would honestly think about sitting King week 1. You aren’t beating bama with him anyways imo, might as well not jeopardize his health first game of a long season
Click to expand...

Largely agree with your on the field reasoning; however, it does send a possible message to the entire team...i would think kids dont go to the U to throw in the towel against anyone and King is going to want to play and will let folks know that if there was talk of him sitting. And you're right, it wont happen.
 
If I placed this ML parlay talk me off any of the games listed. I know parlays are sucker bets but I want to be talked out of any of these games.

Alabama
NC State
Cincinnati
Missouri
USC
Florida
Ohio St
Michigan
Appy St
 
carolinablue said:
I am pretty much aligned with you on that as I think Kentucky at 30.5 or less will probably make the cut for me. Auburn May make it at 37.5 or less while I think I won’t be on A&M unless that one comes down under 28 but I don’t see that happening. Appreciate the thoughts, good stuff man.
Click to expand...

I think I like the idea of UK QBs Levis and Gatewood getting plenty of reps in the new offense (assuming they are capable and pick it up). It will be important to build up some confidence, experience and production in the new system after last year's abysmal O (22ppg and under 300y total O in 6 games)
 
VT Justin Fuente said that QB Braxton Burmeister is the 3rd or 4th best athlete on the team. Fuente has always been high on that kid. I assume that is hyperbole, I don't doubt the kid has athleticism, but compared to other skill players or impact players on D the 3rd or 4th best on the entire team?
 
s--k said:
VT Justin Fuente said that QB Braxton Burmeister is the 3rd or 4th best athlete on the team. Fuente has always been high on that kid. I assume that is hyperbole, I don't doubt the kid has athleticism, but compared to other skill players or impact players on D the 3rd or 4th best on the entire team?
Click to expand...
As long as we play up to our ability and don’t get rattled by the environment or make a bad mistake early, we should take care of business against the Hokies as they don’t have the talent to hang with us for sixty minutes in my opinion. I am thinking something like 45-24 if we play our game, 35-31 if we let them stick around.
 
s--k said:
I think I like the idea of UK QBs Levis and Gatewood getting plenty of reps in the new offense (assuming they are capable and pick it up). It will be important to build up some confidence, experience and production in the new system after last year's abysmal O (22ppg and under 300y total O in 6 games)
Click to expand...
Completely agree and couldn’t ask for a better week one opponent to build that confidence against.
 
VolsWhiskeyMaker said:
If I placed this ML parlay talk me off any of the games listed. I know parlays are sucker bets but I want to be talked out of any of these games.

Alabama
NC State
Cincinnati
Missouri
USC
Florida
Ohio St
Michigan
Appy St
Click to expand...
Not a huge fan of App St in that lineup given the game is here in Charlotte and ticket sales are pointing towards a split crowd at BoA. Not saying they will lose but would probably stay away from neutral site games if it was me, but hope you cash if you decide to lock it in.
 
Last edited:
carolinablue said:
As long as we play up to our ability and don’t get rattled by the environment or make a bad mistake early, we should take care of business against the Hokies as they don’t have the talent to hang with us for sixty minutes in my opinion. I am thinking something like 45-24 if we play our game, 35-31 if we let them stick around.
Click to expand...
I would play UNC as well
 
Damn which one of you aholes moved the OU line 3.5pts before I could hit it at 22.5! I don’t even have my account funded yet…5818C8DC-4AD2-4CA2-9665-EE3F37264C23.jpeg
 
carolinablue said:
Most of you guys know that I am pretty much a favs player, so big chalk doesn’t scare me at all. as there will be plenty of blowouts early on, just gotta find the right ones to play.

At first glance, here are the ones I have my eye on and will be digging deeper into…

No lines yet on these and I expect some of them to be higher than Smokey from Friday, but will still be interested once they come out:
Sat 8/28 - SJSU vs S Utah
Thur 9/2 - Coastal vs Citadel
Sat 9/4 - UVA vs W&M
Sat 9/4 - Liberty vs Campbell

Week 1 Potential Plays:
Thur 9/2 - NCSU -17.5 vs USF
Fri 9/3 - Wake -32.5 vs ODU
Fri 9/3 - UNC -5.5 vs VaTech
Sat 9/4 - Kentucky -29 vs ULM
Sat 9/4 - Auburn -36 vs Akron
Sat 9/4 - A&M -30 vs Kent
Sat 9/4 - Baylor -13 vs Texas State
Sat 9/4 - Oklahoma -22.5 vs Tulane
Click to expand...

of course like oklahoma , that line is going to get to 28. Unfortunately lotta lines have already moved from when they first came out. I'm in the same boat looking at early lines and game of year lines already moved. would also be nice to live in a legal betting state to have access to draftkings, circa, etc. When is florida going to legalize gambling ?

some of these plays
baylor -13 . They don't have the offense yet to prove to cover as favs
Tamu - beautiful matchup for tamu. They probably can match what buffalo did to kent. But I also would never play a fav against Kent's offense with 30 points.
auburn - I'm looking at tennessee vs ulm before akron/auburn. Both new systems but I think Bowling Green is now the worst team behind umass maybe. BG couldn't score against kent, akron, - their offense was trash. And tennessee's d if it can afford to be as bad as people think it will it will be this game. But on offense tennessee is going to run very fast pace and you would think would keep the petal on to learn the system ?
kentucky - I like this game - but might be in make kentucky show it to me first. We are talking about stoops.
unc - i like unc but they aren't very consistent and lose games like these. Lost at VT last time. I think Fuente gets canned this year so can go along with this but is UNC going to be any better defending the run ?
 
EL CAPO said:
of course like oklahoma , that line is going to get to 28. Unfortunately lotta lines have already moved from when they first came out. I'm in the same boat looking at early lines and game of year lines already moved. would also be nice to live in a legal betting state to have access to draftkings, circa, etc. When is florida going to legalize gambling ?

some of these plays
baylor -13 . They don't have the offense yet to prove to cover as favs
Tamu - beautiful matchup for tamu. They probably can match what buffalo did to kent. But I also would never play a fav against Kent's offense with 30 points.
auburn - I'm looking at tennessee vs ulm before akron/auburn. Both new systems but I think Bowling Green is now the worst team behind umass maybe. BG couldn't score against kent, akron, - their offense was trash. And tennessee's d if it can afford to be as bad as people think it will it will be this game. But on offense tennessee is going to run very fast pace and you would think would keep the petal on to learn the system ?
kentucky - I like this game - but might be in make kentucky show it to me first. We are talking about stoops.
unc - i like unc but they aren't very consistent and lose games like these. Lost at VT last time. I think Fuente gets canned this year so can go along with this but is UNC going to be any better defending the run ?
Click to expand...
Hear you on the line moves, I’m slow loading my account this year as it won’t be til August so hopefully none of my potential plays cross any thresholds.

appreciate the thoughts on the plays as I am always up for good solid discussion, so thanks for the info!

Baylor - I don’t think Texas State gets more than 10 so if Baylor hits 24 I think I would be good as I see this as something like 31-9 or 28-10 give or take.

A&M - Yeah hear ya about Kent but not sure they can put up enough points against this D as I think the Aggies could hit 50.

Auburn - I actually think they have a better chance of hitting 50 than Tenny’s offense which is why the Vols didn’t make my potential list, as I just don’t trust Tenn until they prove otherwise but definitely see your point as I am not in love with potentially laying 6 scores even against the zips.

Kentucky - Actually my favorite SEC lean at this point as I expect ULM to be one of the bottom 10 this year so if the KY offense can get me 40, I feel pretty good about this one as I am thinking something like 45-10 or so.

UNC - Hear ya, but this year will be different…I hope!
 
I looked to see if Sagarin updated his season rankings. It looks like he didn't. However I did find this interesting.

5. BYU -12
9. Ball St
12. Buffalo
17. Indiana
20. Toledo
21. Coastal Carolina
25. Western Michigan +17
30. Louisiana Laf +9.5
33. San Jose State +16
35. Eastern Michigan
39. Kent State +29.5

I listed the week 1 lines next to some of the teams that I find could be regression teams this season. Interesting enough these teams play some underperforming huge schools.

Michigan USC Texas Texas A&M

Personally I see one one of these teams covering in week 1. I want to watch this but I will not bet any of these. If it works like I think it will I will remember this for future seasons.
 
Does anyone know how games will be affected if a team has to forfeit because of covid? If you have a team on a parlay and they have to forfeit will it be knocked off the ticket or does that count as a loss on your card?
 
spottie2935 said:
I looked to see if Sagarin updated his season rankings. It looks like he didn't. However I did find this interesting.

5. BYU -12
9. Ball St
12. Buffalo
17. Indiana
20. Toledo
21. Coastal Carolina
25. Western Michigan +17
30. Louisiana Laf +9.5
33. San Jose State +16
35. Eastern Michigan
39. Kent State +29.5

I listed the week 1 lines next to some of the teams that I find could be regression teams this season. Interesting enough these teams play some underperforming huge schools.

Michigan USC Texas Texas A&M

Personally I see one one of these teams covering in week 1. I want to watch this but I will not bet any of these. If it works like I think it will I will remember this for future seasons.
Click to expand...
BYU improves at QB ;)
 
Why do some sites wait to put up MLs? I'm assuming some of the offshores now have MLs posted but, like Heritage seems to wait until a day or two out from the game.

Random curiosity.
 
spottie2935 said:
I looked to see if Sagarin updated his season rankings. It looks like he didn't. However I did find this interesting.

5. BYU -12
9. Ball St
12. Buffalo
17. Indiana
20. Toledo
21. Coastal Carolina
25. Western Michigan +17
30. Louisiana Laf +9.5
33. San Jose State +16
35. Eastern Michigan
39. Kent State +29.5

I listed the week 1 lines next to some of the teams that I find could be regression teams this season. Interesting enough these teams play some underperforming huge schools.

Michigan USC Texas Texas A&M

Personally I see one one of these teams covering in week 1. I want to watch this but I will not bet any of these. If it works like I think it will I will remember this for future seasons.
Click to expand...
Yeah. Covid and the lack of inter-conference games made Sagarin meaningless for inter-conference comparisons.
 
Big Ten thread and personal thread up this week...

But, just a quick thought...

That total in A2 is VERY high, imo.

45-21 stays under

38-17 well under

42-24 gets it

38-24 comfortable

35-21...

You get my drift...

Was expecting something more like 59.5 to 61.5 tops..
 
Frank Costanza said:
Why do some sites wait to put up MLs? I'm assuming some of the offshores now have MLs posted but, like Heritage seems to wait until a day or two out from the game.

Random curiosity.
Click to expand...
Money lines can vary pretty widely place to place, so maybe they are cautious about posting an outlier number they get taken advantage of?
 
B.A.R. said:
Big Ten thread and personal thread up this week...

But, just a quick thought...

That total in A2 is VERY high, imo.

45-21 stays under

38-17 well under

42-24 gets it

38-24 comfortable

35-21...

You get my drift...

Was expecting something more like 59.5 to 61.5 tops..
Click to expand...
A2? Ann Arbor I'm guessing?
 
“I don’t think there is too fast of a tempo that we can play at,” said Wells with a knowing grin. “The faster we go, the more the defense is going to be on their heels and the less time the defense has time to think and make checks and stuff like that. One read and go is pretty much our mentality going into the season.”

Imagine playing a hurry-up offense for an entire game. That’s what Marshall is doing. Hurry to the line of scrimmage. Hurry to get the snap to Wells. And expect Wells to get rid of the ball in a hurry.
“Yeah,” said Wells, “it’s as fast as possible.”
Everyone has seen hurry-up offenses on occasion. Particularly at the end of halves and games. But this is on every play, all plays.
“It’s like a two-minute drill on every play,” said the 6-foot-1, 203-pound second-year quarterback. “It’s usually one read and that’s about it. One read takes you through the whole play.
Click to expand...

That will be interesting if Marshall's offense can make it work like they want each possession. If so, Navy D will have trouble for sure and put pressure on Mids O to score. But if Marshall tries going that fast and they miss a few plays and have to give the ball back to Navy quicker, well, Marshall's D will be in trouble. And Wells was a QB who was awful in his final 3 games after looking fantastic in the first 7 games. Will be intriguing to watch.
 
s--k said:
That will be interesting if Marshall's offense can make it work like they want each possession. If so, Navy D will have trouble for sure and put pressure on Mids O to score. But if Marshall tries going that fast and they miss a few plays and have to give the ball back to Navy quicker, well, Marshall's D will be in trouble. And Wells was a QB who was awful in his final 3 games after looking fantastic in the first 7 games. Will be intriguing to watch.
Click to expand...
Took Marshall early at 2 as I like the matchup in terms of athletes on both sides and the fact that preparation time vs teams like Navy and Army are key in my view.
 
s--k said:
That will be interesting if Marshall's offense can make it work like they want each possession. If so, Navy D will have trouble for sure and put pressure on Mids O to score. But if Marshall tries going that fast and they miss a few plays and have to give the ball back to Navy quicker, well, Marshall's D will be in trouble. And Wells was a QB who was awful in his final 3 games after looking fantastic in the first 7 games. Will be intriguing to watch.
Click to expand...
I’ve always wondered why teams only play fast at 2 min warnings and not at start of games…..looking forward to how Marshall does it…..i would like to see more teams do this, like the NBA…..all tempo…
 
number2 said:
I’ve always wondered why teams only play fast at 2 min warnings and not at start of games…..looking forward to how Marshall does it…..i would like to see more teams do this, like the NBA…..all tempo…
Click to expand...
Yes yes yes
 
Sep 2 Thu 2021

5:30 PM
135Temple+13½
-103		+440O 51
-115
136Rutgers+1 Markets-13½
-117		-560U 51
-105
6:00 PM
137Boise State+5½
-105		+195O 68½
-110
138Central Florida+1 Markets-5½
-115		-225U 68½
-110
6:30 PM
139East Carolina+10
-110		+320O 58
-110
140Appalachian State+1 Markets-10
-110		-400U 58
-110
6:30 PM
141South Florida+18
-105		+660O 58½
-115
142NC State+1 Markets-18
-115		-1000U 58½
-105
7:00 PM
143Bowling Green+34½
-110		O 59½
-110
144Tennessee+1 Markets-34½
-110		U 59½
-110
7:00 PM
145Ohio State-13½
-113		-550O 65½
-110
146Minnesota+1 Markets+13½
-107		+430U 65½
-110
Sep 3 Fri 2021

5:00 PM
147North Carolina-5
-110		-205O 64½
-110
148Virginia Tech+1 Markets+5
-110		+175U 64½
-110
6:00 PM
149Old Dominion+31
-110		O 64
-110
150Wake Forest+1 Markets-31
-110		U 64
-110
6:00 PM
151Duke-6½
-110		-255O 60½
-110
152Charlotte+1 Markets+6½
-110		+215U 60½
-110
8:00 PM
153Michigan State+3
-107		+135O 45
-110
154Northwestern+1 Markets-3
-113		-155U 45
-110
Sep 4 Sat 2021

11:00 AM
155Western Michigan+17
-115		+665O 67½
-115
156Michigan+1 Markets-17
-105		-925U 67½
-105
11:00 AM
157Army+3
-115		+125O 51½
-105
158Georgia State+1 Markets-3
-105		-145U 51½
-115
11:00 AM
159Stanford+2½
-101		+117O 53
-110
160Kansas State+1 Markets-2½
-119		-137U 53
-110
11:00 AM
161UL Monroe+29½
-110		O 55
-110
162Kentucky+1 Markets-29½
-110		U 55
-110
11:00 AM
163Oklahoma-26½
-102		O 69
-110
164Tulane+1 Markets+26½
-118		U 69
-110
11:00 AM
165Penn State+4½
-105		+180O 50
-110
166Wisconsin+1 Markets-4½
-115		-210U 50
-110
1:00 PM
167Rice+19½
-110		+750O 51½
-110
168Arkansas+1 Markets-19½
-110		-1200U 51½
-110
2:30 PM
171West Virginia-3
-110		-160O 56½
-110
172Maryland+1 Markets+3
-110		+140U 56½
-110
2:30 PM
173Indiana+3
-107		+140O 46
-105
174Iowa+1 Markets-3
-113		-160U 46
-115
2:30 PM
175Miami Ohio+23
-110		O 51
-105
176Cincinnati+1 Markets-23
-110		U 51
-115
2:30 PM
177Marshall-3
-115		-155O 46½
-110
178Navy+1 Markets+3
-105		+135U 46½
-110
2:30 PM
179Alabama-19½
-110		-1100O 61½
-107
180Miami Florida+1 Markets+19½
-110		+700U 61½
-113
3:00 PM
181Massachusetts+38
-120		O 56
-110
182Pittsburgh+1 Markets-38
+100		U 56
-110
3:00 PM
183Central Michigan+13½
-110		+450O 60½
-110
184Missouri+1 Markets-13½
-110		-570U 60½
-110
3:00 PM
185Louisiana Tech+23½
-115		O 52½
-110
186Mississippi State+1 Markets-23½
-105		U 52½
-110
3:30 PM
187UL Lafayette+9
-110		+270O 57½
-110
188Texas+1 Markets-9
-110		-325U 57½
-110
4:00 PM
189San Jose State+15
-105		+550O 59½
-110
190USC+1 Markets-15
-115		-750U 59½
-110
6:00 PM
191Oregon State+7
-110		+230O 65
-115
192Purdue+1 Markets-7
-110		-275U 65
-105
6:00 PM
193Texas Tech-2
-110		-120O 64
-110
194Houston+1 Markets+2
-110		+100U 64
-110
6:00 PM
195Baylor-13½
-110		-550O 55
-110
196Texas State+1 Markets+13½
-110		+430U 55
-110
6:00 PM
197Syracuse-1½
-110		O 56
-110
198Ohio+1 Markets+1½
-110		U 56
-110
6:00 PM
199Akron+37
+100		O 55
-110
200Auburn+1 Markets-37
-120		U 55
-110
6:30 PM
203Florida Atlantic+24½
-112		O 52½
-110
204Florida+1 Markets-24½
-108		U 52½
-110
6:30 PM
205Northern Illinois+17½
-105		+660O 56½
-115
206Georgia Tech+1 Markets-17½
-115		-1000U 56½
-105
6:30 PM
207Georgia+3
-110		+140O 51½
-110
208Clemson+1 Markets-3
-110		-160U 51½
-110
7:00 PM
209Southern Miss-1½
-115		-125O 54
-110
210South Alabama+1 Markets+1½
-105		+105U 54
-110
7:00 PM
211Kent State+29½
-105		O 65½
-110
212Texas A&M+1 Markets-29½
-115		U 65½
-110
9:30 PM
215BYU-12
-110		-450O 54½
-110
216Arizona+1 Markets+12
-110		+360U 54½
-110
9:30 PM
217Nevada+3½
-110		+150O 52½
-110
218California+1 Markets-3½
-110		-170U 52½
-110
9:30 PM
219New Mexico State+30
-110		O 50
-110
220San Diego State-30
-110		U 50
-110
10:00 PM
221Utah State+16½
-105		+605O 64½
-110
222Washington State+1 Markets-16½
-115		-825U 64½
-110
Sep 5 Sun 2021

6:30 PM
223Notre Dame-7½
-110		-300O 56
-110
224Florida State+1 Markets+7½
-110		+250U 56
-110
Sep 6 Mon 2021

7:00 PM
225Louisville+9½
-110		+300O 75½
-110
226Mississippi+1 Markets-9½
-110		-370U 75½
-110
 
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