Week 1 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Thursday, September 2nd


Rutgers -13 vs Temple

Central Florida -3.5 vs Boise St

Appy St -13 vs East Carolina

NC State -16.5 vs South Florida

Tennessee -30 vs Bowling Green

Ohio State -14 vs Minnesota


Friday, September 3rd


North Carolina -6 @ Va Tech

Wake Forest -32 vs Old Dominion

Duke -7.5 @ Charlotte

Northwestern -6.5 vs Michigan State


Saturday, September 4th


Michigan -16,5 vs Western Michigan

Georgia St -3 vs Army

Kansas St PK vs Stanford

Kentucky -28.5 vs UL-Monroe

Oklahoma -21.5 @ Tulane

Wisconsin -4 vs Penn State

Arkansas -21.5 vs Rice

Oregon -20.5 vs Fresno St

West Virginia -4 @ Maryland

Iowa -4.5 vs Indiana

Cincy -21.5 vs Miami OH

Marshall -2 @ Navy

Alabama -18.5 @ Miami FL

Pitt -36 vs Umass

Mizzou -11 vs Central Michigan

Messy St -27.5 vs La Tech

Texas -12 vs UL-Lafayette

USC -17 vs San Jones State

Purdue -7.5 vs Oregon St

Texas Tech -4 vs Houston

Baylor -12 vs Texas State

Ohio PK vs Syracuse

Auburn -35.5 vs Akron

Illinois -6 vs UTSA

Florida -25.5 vs FAU

Ga Tech -15.5 vs N. Illinois

Clemson -3.5 vs Georgia

Southern Miss -1.5 @ S. Alabama

Texas A&M -29 vs Kent State

LSU -5 @ UCLA

BYU -10 @ Arizona

Cal -3.5 vs Nevada

SDSU -28.5 vs New Mexico St

Wazzou -15 vs Utah State



Sunday, September 5th


Notre Dame -9.5 @ Florida State


Monday, September 6th


Ole Miss -8 vs Louisville
 
First blush:

That seems a tad short for Oklahoma at Turchin. Maybe Oklahoma will be working the kinks out, but I would’ve thought 24 at the least.

I haven’t looked at Indiana, but did they lose a bunch off the team? Iowa usually solid but for the 1st game maybe home dawgs worth a look.

Pitt laying 36 to anyone is odd. Don’t know much about UMASS

UGA prolly get my money

Oregon St getting the slash looks appealing
 
twinkie13 said:
First blush:

That seems a tad short for Oklahoma at Turchin. Maybe Oklahoma will be working the kinks out, but I would’ve thought 24 at the least.

I haven’t looked at Indiana, but did they lose a bunch off the team? Iowa usually solid but for the 1st game maybe home dawgs worth a look.

Pitt laying 36 to anyone is odd. Don’t know much about UMASS

UGA prolly get my money

Oregon St getting the slash looks appealing
Click to expand...
Pitt can score 86 if they choose to
 
twinkie13 said:
First blush:

That seems a tad short for Oklahoma at Turchin. Maybe Oklahoma will be working the kinks out, but I would’ve thought 24 at the least.

I haven’t looked at Indiana, but did they lose a bunch off the team? Iowa usually solid but for the 1st game maybe home dawgs worth a look.

Pitt laying 36 to anyone is odd. Don’t know much about UMASS

UGA prolly get my money

Oregon St getting the slash looks appealing
Click to expand...
I agree on the OU number. I'm guessing 21 or so once game isn't circled.

Indiana is the road team. Penix is back for his 9th year.

UMass is the worst team or bottom 2/3 in the country. We've had threads dedicated to the fade. Trust me, my first thought there was how can Pitt screw up the spread and team total here.

UGA my team this year, definitely like the points there. Feels like one that might be an old fashioned kind of score.
 
KJ said:
Pitt can score 86 if they choose to
Click to expand...
UMass is a bad football team, 1-11 in 2019. I believe it was BLOODHOUND who once told me ‘ never bet on a bad football team.’
Umass’ 1 win was vs Akron . Their closest loss was by 21 to UConn.

At 36 points, they would have been 6-6. Two of those ‘wins’ would have been 1 point to Charlotte, 17-52, and 2 points to Coastal Carolina, 28-62.
 
Feel good about K-State this year (7ish wins if QB stays healthy). I think Stanford stinks and will be betting the Cats in Dallas PK or -1.
 
twinkie13 said:
First blush:

That seems a tad short for Oklahoma at Turchin. Maybe Oklahoma will be working the kinks out, but I would’ve thought 24 at the least.

I haven’t looked at Indiana, but did they lose a bunch off the team? Iowa usually solid but for the 1st game maybe home dawgs worth a look.

Pitt laying 36 to anyone is odd. Don’t know much about UMASS

UGA prolly get my money

Oregon St getting the slash looks appealing
Click to expand...
Per PS:

Offense: "This year they have 8 starters back including Penix and should be more potent."
Defense: "This year 9 starters are back including my #5 LB and #7 DB's in the country. They are my #5 Defense!"
2021: "This year they have 17 starters returning (most in 6 years) and they get Ohio State at home. This team believes in Tom Allen and all 9 sets of my power ratings call for at least a 9-win season for the first time since 1967."
 
Regarding Indiana and Iowa, a few comments (most from reading Phil's book):

Iowa D has not allowed more than 25 points for 22 consecutive games (longest streak in NCAA)

Phil Steele ranks their DB unit 9th nationally

Indiana did go 2-0 ATS as away fav last year and was 4-0 ATS overall on the road 2020 (3-1 SU). IU was strong on the road in 2019 as well 0-2 ATS as away favs, but 2-0 SU...went 3-0 ATS as away dog with 1 upset, making them 3-2 SU 2019 = 6-3 SU on the road last 2 years (3 SU losses MSU/OSU/PSU).

Phil Steele must have a misprint on his Big Ten Unit Rankings as he labels IU DBs #11 yet says they are the 7th best group nationally. So perhaps he means IU has B1G's #1 DB unit (he has Iowa DB unit #2 in the league).

The transformation IU has had under Allen on defense is quite amazing, unfortunately we haven't seen a full season of Pennix at QB for the O. Last year they forgot how to run the ball and the OL doesn't look overwhelming (Phil Steele 10th OL unit in B1G).

Under could make sense.
 
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Regarding IU transfers, Carr mentioned in this quote is former USC RB Stephen Carr, but I'm just as interested in how the others might contribute:

Carr wasn't the only one buying in. IU has loaded up on difference-making transfers. Besides Carr, there's defensive lineman Jaren Hardy (from Auburn), defensive lineman Ryder Anderson (Ole Miss), wide receiver D.J. Matthews Jr. (Florida State), offensive lineman Zach Carpenter (Michigan), wide receiver Camron Buckley (Texas A&M), and defensive lineman Weston Kramer (Northern Illinois).
Click to expand...

Weston Kramer was 2nd Tm MAC at NIU. Some MAC DL transfers have been impact players in the Big Ten before. I don't know the significance of the other players other than Carr. It upgrades the talent if nothing else.
 
s--k said:
Regarding Indiana and Iowa, a few comments (most from reading Phil's book):

Iowa D has not allowed more than 25 points for 22 consecutive games (longest streak in NCAA)

Phil Steele ranks their DB unit 9th nationally

Indiana did go 2-0 ATS as away fav last year and was 4-0 ATS overall on the road 2020 (3-1 SU). IU was strong on the road in 2019 as well 0-2 ATS as away favs, but 2-0 SU...went 3-0 ATS as away dog with 1 upset, making them 3-2 SU 2019 = 6-3 SU on the road last 2 years (3 SU losses MSU/OSU/PSU).

Phil Steele must have a misprint on his Big Ten Unit Rankings as he labels IU DBs #11 yet says they are the 7th best group nationally. So perhaps he means IU has B1G's #1 DB unit (he has Iowa DB unit #2 in the league).

The transformation IU has had under Allen on defense is quite amazing, unfortunately we haven't seen a full season of Pennix at QB for the O. Last year they forgot how to run the ball and the OL doesn't look overwhelming (Phil Steele 10th OL unit in B1G).

Under could make sense.
Click to expand...

He made some errors with big ten stuff for sure. Cam Taylor not on any of the four all big ten teams, yet Phil has him as his 7th best CB in the country at the front of the mag.
 
Most of you guys know that I am pretty much a favs player, so big chalk doesn’t scare me at all. as there will be plenty of blowouts early on, just gotta find the right ones to play.

At first glance, here are the ones I have my eye on and will be digging deeper into…

No lines yet on these and I expect some of them to be higher than Smokey from Friday, but will still be interested once they come out:
Sat 8/28 - SJSU vs S Utah
Thur 9/2 - Coastal vs Citadel
Sat 9/4 - UVA vs W&M
Sat 9/4 - Liberty vs Campbell

Week 1 Potential Plays:
Thur 9/2 - NCSU -17.5 vs USF
Fri 9/3 - Wake -32.5 vs ODU
Fri 9/3 - UNC -5.5 vs VaTech
Sat 9/4 - Kentucky -29 vs ULM
Sat 9/4 - Auburn -36 vs Akron
Sat 9/4 - A&M -30 vs Kent
Sat 9/4 - Baylor -13 vs Texas State
Sat 9/4 - Oklahoma -22.5 vs Tulane
 
s--k said:
Regarding Indiana and Iowa, a few comments (most from reading Phil's book):

Iowa D has not allowed more than 25 points for 22 consecutive games (longest streak in NCAA)

Phil Steele ranks their DB unit 9th nationally

Indiana did go 2-0 ATS as away fav last year and was 4-0 ATS overall on the road 2020 (3-1 SU). IU was strong on the road in 2019 as well 0-2 ATS as away favs, but 2-0 SU...went 3-0 ATS as away dog with 1 upset, making them 3-2 SU 2019 = 6-3 SU on the road last 2 years (3 SU losses MSU/OSU/PSU).

Phil Steele must have a misprint on his Big Ten Unit Rankings as he labels IU DBs #11 yet says they are the 7th best group nationally. So perhaps he means IU has B1G's #1 DB unit (he has Iowa DB unit #2 in the league).

The transformation IU has had under Allen on defense is quite amazing, unfortunately we haven't seen a full season of Pennix at QB for the O. Last year they forgot how to run the ball and the OL doesn't look overwhelming (Phil Steele 10th OL unit in B1G).

Under could make sense.
Click to expand...

I think he transposed IU and Rutgers Big 10 DB rankings...
 
carolinablue said:
Most of you guys know that I am pretty much a favs player, so big chalk doesn’t scare me at all. as there will be plenty of blowouts early on, just gotta find the right ones to play.

At first glance, here are the ones I have my eye on and will be digging deeper into…

No lines yet on these and I expect some of them to be higher than Smokey from Friday, but will still be interested once they come out:
Sat 8/28 - SJSU vs S Utah
Thur 9/2 - Coastal vs Citadel
Sat 9/4 - UVA vs W&M
Sat 9/4 - Liberty vs Campbell

Week 1 Potential Plays:
Thur 9/2 - NCSU -17.5 vs USF
Fri 9/3 - Wake -32.5 vs ODU
Fri 9/3 - UNC -5.5 vs VaTech
Sat 9/4 - Kentucky -29 vs ULM
Sat 9/4 - Auburn -36 vs Akron
Sat 9/4 - A&M -30 vs Kent
Sat 9/4 - Baylor -13 vs Texas State
Sat 9/4 - Oklahoma -22.5 vs Tulane
Click to expand...
Yea I still don’t get the Tulane line. OK starters not going that long?
 
Not sure what you can get down on W Kentucky vs UT Martin in week 1...but they are way under the radar generally with a whole new offense imported from Houston Baptist including OC, good QB, and 3 Wr. Will be looking to play overs/TT overs with them early...This is an Air Raid offense that threw for 567 @ Texas Tech last fall...

wkusports.com

Record-Setting Transfer Quarterback Bailey Zappe Signs With WKU Football - Western Kentucky University Athletics

His 567 pass yards this season at Texas Tech were the most ever for an FCS player against an FBS defense.
wkusports.com wkusports.com
 
twinkie13 said:
Yea I still don’t get the Tulane line. OK starters not going that long?
Click to expand...
I expect it to be closer to 28 by week 1, so will probably jump on it first week in August when I fund my account. They have Western in Week 2, so no situational issues in the opener. I know that Tulane can take the air out of the sails a bit if they get going, but fully expect the Sooners to take care of business in Week 1 so hoping I can lock it in before the value is lost.
 
In weeks 1 or 2 the Irish are 0-7 ATS as road chalk. I was reading about the QB situation. They have a transfer in from Wisky. sat out last season. Looks to be decent, steady type but Wisky is known for strong running running attack first. Irish were only 6-6 ATS last season and I predict worse than .500 ATS this season. Surely as I always do Irish are horrible as home chalk, one of my bread and butter fades.
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
In weeks 1 or 2 the Irish are 0-7 ATS as road chalk. I was reading about the QB situation. They have a transfer in from Wisky. sat out last season. Looks to be decent, steady type but Wisky is known for strong running running attack first. Irish were only 6-6 ATS last season and I predict worst than .500 ATS this season. Surely as I always do Irish are horrible as home chalk, one of my bread and butter fades.
Click to expand...
How far back does this go?
 
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spottie2935 said:
In weeks 1 or 2 the Irish are 0-7 ATS as road chalk. I was reading about the QB situation. They have a transfer in from Wisky. sat out last season. Looks to be decent, steady type but Wisky is known for strong running running attack first. Irish were only 6-6 ATS last season and I predict worse than .500 ATS this season. Surely as I always do Irish are horrible as home chalk, one of my bread and butter fades.
Click to expand...
Jack Coan time
 
Will be interested in the over in the Ole Miss v Ville game if it opens less than mid 60s, as at first glance, I would expect that one to be something like 45-31. Also, considering Alabama even at 18, as I am not sure Miami will be able to keep up, but thinking that the over may be the better option depending on the number, as I am not a huge fan of 18, but honestly may still take it at anything under 20 even though it may be biased given how much money Alabama made me last year. Thoughts?
 
carolinablue said:
Will be interested in the over in the Ole Miss v Ville game if it opens less than mid 60s, as at first glance, I would expect that one to be something like 45-31. Also, considering Alabama even at 18, as I am not sure Miami will be able to keep up, but thinking that the over may be the better option depending on the number, as I am not a huge fan of 18, but honestly may still take it at anything under 20 even though it may be biased given how much money Alabama made me last year. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I would never lay that many against the best playmaker on the field
 
carolinablue said:
I assume you mean King but not sure I am buying what everyone is selling with him as he should have been able to pick us apart last year but didn’t even come close. I’m just not sold on him yet.
Click to expand...
So here goes...he was a hard purchase at UH, last year should be tossed for what it was

He will be better than the UNC QB stats wise, not that it means he's better, but I trust him more than anyone in the ACC when the game is on the line. Giving that many points to him is absurd imo.
 
KJ said:
So here goes...he was a hard purchase at UH, last year should be tossed for what it was

He will be better than the UNC QB stats wise, not that it means he's better, but I trust him more than anyone in the ACC when the game is on the line. Giving that many points to him is absurd imo.
Click to expand...
You did see the money train last year, yes?
 
KJ said:
So here goes...he was a hard purchase at UH, last year should be tossed for what it was

He will be better than the UNC QB stats wise, not that it means he's better, but I trust him more than anyone in the ACC when the game is on the line. Giving that many points to him is absurd imo.
Click to expand...
If it was against anyone but Alabama, I hear ya but I could easily see this one more likely being 45-17 or 52-24 than 35-20 or 31-14 to stay within the number. Not saying I’m gonna play it, just on my short list. Appreciate the discussion, good stuff man.
 
carolinablue said:
If it was against anyone but Alabama, I hear ya but I could easily see this one more likely being 45-17 or 52-24 than 35-20 or 31-14 to stay within the number. Not saying I’m gonna play it, just on my short list. Appreciate the discussion, good stuff man.
Click to expand...
I just don't see Bama dominating him defensively

Think it's a game
 
gps_3 said:
How good is Miami's OL? Because Alabama's front 7 will be very, very good
Click to expand...
I'd be more worried about a stationary QB. I don't know about OL, I don't think it's the game changer, I know that.

Love Miami D vs this offense and a playmaking QB. Think it's a one score game come crunch time
 
Let’s keep in mind King is coming off a torn acl. Should be ready week 1 but have to factor it in the handicap, how mobile will he be early in the season?
 
carolinablue said:
Will be interested in the over in the Ole Miss v Ville game if it opens less than mid 60s, as at first glance, I would expect that one to be something like 45-31. Also, considering Alabama even at 18, as I am not sure Miami will be able to keep up, but thinking that the over may be the better option depending on the number, as I am not a huge fan of 18, but honestly may still take it at anything under 20 even though it may be biased given how much money Alabama made me last year. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
And yes that total is one I have on my radar at open
 
gps_3 said:
How good is Miami's OL? Because Alabama's front 7 will be very, very good
Click to expand...
191 career OL starts returning. Though not sure it will matter. King isn't just coming off an ACL....he's coming off an ACL that he tore December 29th in their bowl game against OkSt. Yes, guys heal quickly with modern day surgeries, but 8 mths later against Bama?

:headscratch:
 
Buck50 said:
191 career OL starts returning. Though not sure it will matter. King isn't just coming off an ACL....he's coming off an ACL that he tore December 29th in their bowl game against OkSt. Yes, guys heal quickly with modern day surgeries, but 8 mths later against Bama?

:headscratch:
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info. Alabama may or may not cover against Miami, but if the U keeps it close, I think it's because the are able to limit Alabama's offense rather than King going wild on offense. There's the knee as mentioned. But on D, Alabama is probably 10 deep on the DL with legit SEC caliber players, albeit with no true superstars. But Will Anderson is a superstar and he has the potential to be a top 10 pick in a couple of years. The whole LB corps is filthy. If King and the Cane offense score at will, then they are a legit threat to win it all
 
gps_3 said:
Thanks for the info. Alabama may or may not cover against Miami, but if the U keeps it close, I think it's because the are able to limit Alabama's offense rather than King going wild on offense. There's the knee as mentioned. But on D, Alabama is probably 10 deep on the DL with legit SEC caliber players, albeit with no true superstars. But Will Anderson is a superstar and he has the potential to be a top 10 pick in a couple of years. The whole LB corps is filthy. If King and the Cane offense score at will, then they are a legit threat to win it all
Click to expand...
Curious since you are dialed in on Bama what your thoughts are on the Tide WRs. My Buckeye team obviously got taken to the cleaners in the title game….that wasn’t all that surprising. What I was surprised at was Bama taking Jameson Williams. Good kid that has blazing speed, but I can’t believe he’s be a top 5 option at WR for Bama no matter who they lost in the draft. He may be help as a return man, but IMO he is not an elite WR.
 
Buck50 said:
Curious since you are dialed in on Bama what your thoughts are on the Tide WRs. My Buckeye team obviously got taken to the cleaners in the title game….that wasn’t all that surprising. What I was surprised at was Bama taking Jameson Williams. Good kid that has blazing speed, but I can’t believe he’s be a top 5 option at WR for Bama no matter who they lost in the draft. He may be help as a return man, but IMO he is not an elite WR.
Click to expand...
I think his skill set is something that our most experienced guys are lacking, and that's why his path to playing time is clearer at Alabama than tOSU. Metchie has great hands and is fast enough, but he's not a stretch the field kind of guy, or hasn't been yet. After him, the most experienced WR is Slade Bolden who is a jack of all trades kind of player, more of a 3rd option than a #2. Everyone else on the roster has minimal, if any, experience. And taking Williams tells me that none of the young guys are ready yet in the eyes of O'Brien to be counted on early
 
Great discussion guys, really appreciate it! Curious if any of you guys have any dissenting viewpoints on the other 3 SEC plays that are on my short list. I get that a lot of you guys hate laying big numbers, and that's fair, but looking more for some insights from you SEC guys as I haven't dug too deep into these yet as I won't be funding my account for a few weeks, so plan to get more into things while on the beach next week.
 
carolinablue said:
Great discussion guys, really appreciate it! Curious if any of you guys have any dissenting viewpoints on the other 3 SEC plays that are on my short list. I get that a lot of you guys hate laying big numbers, and that's fair, but looking more for some insights from you SEC guys as I haven't dug too deep into these yet as I won't be funding my account for a few weeks, so plan to get more into things while on the beach next week.
Click to expand...
One thing I was thinking about was Kent might be able to put up some points on A&M or slide in the backdoor with that offense so not in love with potentially laying 30 in that one because of that Kent offense, although not sure how effective they will be against A&M's defense.
 
I know Akron is terrible, but I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be laying 5+ TDs with AU's offense under a brand new coaching staff. I agree on UK, don't think Terry Bowden can correct that train wreck at La Monroe that quickly. I feel like aTm has come out flat early on before, not sure if I'm remembering correctly though. Aggie defense should be strong as you mentioned, so if the offense gets going early, I can see a cover there.
 
gps_3 said:
I know Akron is terrible, but I'm not sure how comfortable I'd be laying 5+ TDs with AU's offense under a brand new coaching staff. I agree on UK, don't think Terry Bowden can correct that train wreck at La Monroe that quickly. I feel like aTm has come out flat early on before, not sure if I'm remembering correctly though. Aggie defense should be strong as you mentioned, so if the offense gets going early, I can see a cover there.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the feedback, appreciate it! With regard to Auburn, I am thinking they will want to put on a show for the fans given the new staff, so kinda opposite mindset on that one as I see something like 52-10 worst case. UK I am seeing something like 45-9 worst case with a similar fee to the Auburn one.
 
carolinablue said:
Thanks for the feedback, appreciate it! With regard to Auburn, I am thinking they will want to put on a show for the fans given the new staff, so kinda opposite mindset on that one as I see something like 52-10 worst case. UK I am seeing something like 45-9 worst case with a similar fee to the Auburn one.
Click to expand...
I have no doubts AU will want to put on a show. I question whether they are capable. But I've been wrong about AU too many times to count, so you are probably right
 
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