Wednesday MLB Discussion

Anyone looking at the over in STL tonight?.....Fairchild behind the dish...wind out to RF a tad (5-10mph)...high humidity (currently a light drizzle) and 5 runs scored in the 9th yesterday (carryover to today?). Currently see 9 @ +105.
 
5/27 is the last time Tampa lost a game in which they scored 5 runs or more (up until that date they were 22-6 SU in games they scored at least 5 runs in). Since then they have gone 30-0 SU in games they've scored at least 5 runs in.
 
San Francisco 0-10 in their last 10 against LHP if Lincecum isn't starting

Better team - better bullpen.

like Lo Duca joining the team.

Florida +121
 
Yanks win rather comfortable ....pissed I passed on the UNDER ...

Pretty much no suprises so far . Silly plays fucking around with Balt UNDER 11.5 ..smack for that one !!

Should have played CLE-Over almost pulled the trigger was just short on time...

Needs LAD to finish a parlay for 6 units so not sure what I am soing there . Also have Marlins to win the series at SFG so up 1-0 may sit out....

Trying to catch up...:cheers:
 
nut

thoughts on SF game?



both olsen and Cain stuck with losses in most recent meetings against respective teams
 
Philly has to be of interest either ML or RL ...Myers throwing well and Philly get second look at Balester and Nats pen is thin ...

Cards -Wellenemyer throwing well and seem to recall good history vs Pitt . Davis solid fill in SP but there pen is a concern from teh 7th on..

Sd 1st score Prop - nice rally to close the game. Peavy has struggled on the road but rare price for him. Think he lost 2-1 last outing vs Webb @ Petco..

LAD ML - just like them vs LHSP

Twinkies ML - Hate the price and hate fading Braden but think Liriano 0 earned in 2 starts at home is in a great spot with Nathan to follow

A's away vs LHSP 5-14
1 4 2 0 1 3 7 4 1 5 2 2 0 0 3 1 2 1 9

The wins 4-2 vs Rogers to end theer losing streak m 7-1 vs Buerhle when WS where streakin , 5-1 vs Zito big deal IL play and the AL won , 2-1 vs Buerhle and the 9 spot vs CC when he was more like Dana Eveland.

Thats 14 of 19 3 runs or less and 12 have 2 runs or less !

Twins at home vs LHSP 16-4
11 7 4 10 6 7 14 4 9 6 1 7 2 2 6 7 7 0 4 0

So Twins won 10 straight at home vs LHSP 12 of 13 and15 of 17 ...
There loss vs Parra 5-1 , 3-2 Olsen of Balt , Lee 4-0 and Suanders 1-0 with the 1st two in April...

So UNDER-OAK parlay worth a shot as a safety longshot play...

Might fade meche unimpressed with recent outings

Yanks ML as well strong -Pettitte two sloid efforts wasted by his team......:cheers:

Missed getting home in time to play 1st inn score YES prop was like +140! I'll take it though especially if SD can hold on...:cheers:
 
Olsen's start against SF was strange. watched that game and a first inning error sort of set Olsen in a bad position from the beginning. Molina, Rowand, and Winn did most of the damage but AT&T far different park. Giants are 13 games under .500 at home and Cain receives no run support regularly.
 
sLOVENAI HAS MOST MEDAILS ON THE PEOPLE ON THE WORLD,... lOKKKS ON AZE KOPITARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
 
Played Marlins ML and lesser plays on 1st 5 inn FLA and under 7.5...

SF 14-4 UND on WED and 2-7 after being shutout . Pettitte sort of was like Scott Olsen lately....and clearly SF struggles vs LHSP as Pigeon mentioned....
 
Wow . So much for Peavys 4-0 lead down 6-4 already ...

Pending : all 1/2 units -SD ML , SD 1st 5 ML , Over 7 runs , and SD +1.5 RL....
 
do dogs win anymore? damn...

Nah and they wont . There are to many teams who have severe issues in the three major categories - SP , Bullpens and offense ...

Last two days Home teams were like -340 and I dont recall ever seeing that ...

and I even played for a UNIT today and talk about a layup..

think its 67-33 HOME team runs with the final games.....
 
Angels cash, yes sirrr. too much pride going on there.

Congrats . However I disagree thats a terrible win by them. If they had pride they wouldnt need to escape by 1 run after there recent stretch in general and @ TB....they are fade material at this point ...not everyday but if they start having 4-3 or 3-4 weeks at there prices there is $$$ to be made..:cheers:
 
Congrats . However I disagree thats a terrible win by them. If they had pride they wouldnt need to escape by 1 run after there recent stretch in general and @ TB....they are fade material at this point ...not everyday but if they start having 4-3 or 3-4 weeks at there prices there is $$$ to be made..:cheers:
Understood and Agree. Just figured Today was just an automatic spot to me to play Angels. Too many factors to pass up.
 
Lo Duca in the 2 spot (Hermida moved to the 8th spot), has singled and walked in his first 2 ABs... cmon Cantu
 
Understood and Agree. Just figured Today was just an automatic spot to me to play Angels. Too many factors to pass up.


I am not knocking anyone especially True Blue . I am just saying the way they won considering the situation left me unimpressed . I would expect a team who is playing well to take advantage of a situation like this. The fact they didnt to me only reiterates they are NOT playing good baseball. To be honest though I have felt LAA was getting way overrated by there home series vs NYY . There is a difference bewteen beating a team and having a team allow you to beat them through lack of execution in crucial spots. Today WSox could have coasted but instead pasted the Mariners . Entirely different situation but I think its a good sign that they are beating down the inferior teams at the moment .

So my apologies if I am came off as an AHole ! :shake:
 
i agree with nut

dogs will be barking less as we go on this late in season

bein a mainly dog player, finding the spots and payin to go against winning clubs is not a proposition i want to deal with

luckliy foots around the corner until mlb playoffs
 
i agree that the win was ugly and there were a horrid number of men left on base. GA's "hit" at the end was even questionable along with the popped up bunt by aybar. Somehow they seem to come through in a lot in situations like this, i guess that's what i meant by the pride. This was the first game i played the angels for this series, so figured it to be a good spot where TB isnt sharp as they would have been in a nonsweep setting. I pick my spots with this team but usually lose when i bet against them so i dont even try anymore..
 
I am not knocking anyone especially True Blue . I am just saying the way they won considering the situation left me unimpressed . I would expect a team who is playing well to take advantage of a situation like this. The fact they didnt to me only reiterates they are NOT playing good baseball. To be honest though I have felt LAA was getting way overrated by there home series vs NYY . There is a difference bewteen beating a team and having a team allow you to beat them through lack of execution in crucial spots. Today WSox could have coasted but instead pasted the Mariners . Entirely different situation but I think its a good sign that they are beating down the inferior teams at the moment .

So my apologies if I am came off as an AHole ! :shake:

No problem man. What I highlighted is my reasoning towards taking Angels. I didn't watch their game nor any game today I bet except AZ tonight. All I was hoping was for something different than the Angels losing a bunch lately and TB winning a bunch lately. Like I have learned things from what you've said. Go against what seems obvious :shake:
 
dogs will be barking less as we go on this late in season

Agreed. If you want to continue betting hardball be prepared to lay the chalk or lay the runs. We're seeing -300 or worse every other day now. Personally, I'm waiting on the White Sox to go on a tear soon, but that will likely come with price tags like today (-210).
 
Just wanted to clear it up. I responded so felt I should clarify . I didnt play much early and actually passed on alot of the early games I was just rushing to get the outdoor and to often I have seen myself piss away 4 or 5 units even more on hasty decisions . I was close to playing TB ML but while I thought they could sweep really what was there edge here ? Pen seemed a bit overworked in what little starts the guys had opposing eachother Weaver's were clearly stronger .

I just think people started crowning LAA champs way to early . I LOVE the fact they get the most out of there talent . Trust me as a Yankee fan its something you appreciate . Really reminds me of the "good " Yankee teams from 96 to 2001. Yo have a guy like Garrett Anderson who is overpaid in recent years by his production but just remindsof Bernie Williams . Who when he felt healthy in his last 4 or 5 seasons looked like his "prime" self. Good young players from there minor leagues like Figgins , Aybar , Itzuris , Kotchmans ince dealt think Nick Johnson , the catchers , etc ....

I respect them greatly just think there margin for error is slim unless Tex starts hitting consisently like he did back in his best years in Texas. There SP cant get any better really neither can the pen unless it adds arms. When they were smoking HOT that was the best they will look . Lost is there Division ..Oak , Seattle , Texas ...A's can beat them because there pitching keeps them competitive and it was never better then LAAs , Seatte joke , and texas if they could outslug them had a chance but the SP disparity was tremnedous...

Not sure but think they are 500 since the 1st game @ Yankee Stadium like 9-9 or 9-8 possibly with like 5 wins by 1 run ....

Who knows not even sure who is ondeck for them....

Just an opinion...:shake:
 
angels host the twins in a 4 game set. good thoughts on the angels - havent really looked at it from that perspective. the angels to me just always seemed like one of those feisty teams that takes advantage of the other team's mistakes a lot better than some do. their division really is horrible though, and that has accounted for a lot of their record. something to keep in mind for sure.
 
Agreed. If you want to continue betting hardball be prepared to lay the chalk or lay the runs. We're seeing -300 or worse every other day now. Personally, I'm waiting on the White Sox to go on a tear soon, but that will likely come with price tags like today (-210).


The sad part is really Chi should be about -350 vs Seattle with how each is playing. mariners pen is taxed there throwing guys who are fringe 5th SP in the majors and the other side is CHI who throws out 4 high quality SP and has a decent pen with a lineup that is deep and top 10 in baseball.....

Seattle cant outpitch them so they need to outhit them but arent a very good offense . Which leaves most of the hope for a SEA win in WSox just having a bad day....

Its insane basically we have about 8-10 teams who are the equivalent of what TB has been the past 5 or 6 years.....

I think at -220 or 240 teams like CHI are a steal......like STL today ..part of me cringes laying -230 or paying -125 to lay -1.5 but same deal. Pitt won cause it outpitched STL yesterday whats the chances they can do it again vs a division opponent in a playoff race . Factored with using Jason Davis a nice upside arm but not a guy who has ever shown consistency or make you believe he can do it repeatedly week after week....

The gap in baseball is crazy right now there are so many BAD teams and bad pitching staffs..

Going to be interesting for sure but doesnt mean opportunties wont present themselves...as MILW and NYY did today ...:cheers:

I dont want to even think about football !!!!!!!Though the preseason I have been on an insane run ...but dont trust myself betting Exhibition football ....
 
entering the Tampa series, the Angels were 1-2 SU after going 20-5 SU their previous 25 games (including 13 vs BOS+NYY). Tampa has a fantastic home record, and they caught the Angels on a down slope - nobody, no matter how good they are, is going to perform at that kind of 80% pace forever. I credit the Angels for winning a game at all.
 
I still have not forgotten about that 2.5 month period where they averaged some absurd 2-3 runs a game. The thing is though... they won so many of those games. They way this team is, either the pitching or hitting will pick it up and carry the team. It is very rare when either of these assets do not show up.
 
entering the Tampa series, the Angels were 1-2 SU after going 20-5 SU their previous 25 games (including 13 vs BOS+NYY). Tampa has a fantastic home record, and they caught the Angels on a down slope - nobody, no matter how good they are, is going to perform at that kind of 80% pace forever. I credit the Angels for winning a game at all.

agreed.

On a side note, Jeff Francis is 2 for 2 off Billingsley tonight, single and a double. :popcorn:
 
angels host the twins in a 4 game set. good thoughts on the angels - havent really looked at it from that perspective. the angels to me just always seemed like one of those feisty teams that takes advantage of the other team's mistakes a lot better than some do. their division really is horrible though, and that has accounted for a lot of their record. something to keep in mind for sure.

Absolutely. LAA rarely beats themselves and if you allow any team to hang around then its almost inevitable you will lose . multiplied by the brand of ball LAA plays..

Meant to say OAK cant beat them because A's pitching is what keep them competitive but it still wasnt as good as LAA . They had that huge stretch where they won neary every game but couldnt score more then 4 runs ...

Nothing to be ashamed about consistency though .....

Guess I feel they were due to level off ..Really look at LAA and White Sox whats the real difference ?
 
Okay LAD scaring me . Back to back innings stranded runners and makes it inevitable COL will score ....already 1st and 2nd come on LAD and Billinsgley ....shoud be like 6-1 easy ...
 
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