Wednesday Discussion Thread

Spencer Arrighetti o5.5 Ks -113 @ FD

Reds have gone under this number 9 out of last 10 games, but will taken my chances with a guy who's been on absolute fire of late.

1725458297278.png
 
That's it. Unless @2daBank can convince me of some plays ;)

TOR FF ML -102 @ FD
Bowden Francis o5.5 Ks +115 @ DK
Spencer Arrighetti o5.5 Ks -113 @ FD
WSH/MIA o8.5 +100 @ FD
MIN/TB o8 +100 @ MGM
Imanaga o6.5 Ks +120
MIL TT o3.5 -125
AZ TT o4.5 +124 @ FD
 
peelpub94 said:
TOR FF ML -102 @ FD
Bowden Francis o5.5 Ks +115 @ DK
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I just can’t feel this cat like you been, you been spot on so far tho, maybe cause my wife French and I always talk shit bout her and French, even tho they always winning the soccer! I don’t even know he is French bout sounds like, lol.

Anyways I have doubts this run continues today, not saying he fluky but also not sure some these numbers gonna stick, I couldn’t turn down Philly Ff Tt ov 1.5, if he beats me or Philly stays cold I’ll tip my cap. Doesn’t mean he ain’t gonna punch out a bunch also.
 
@peelpub94 you got great get on number also, 15 years ago I thought it was my job to hit overnights and beat closers but then a funny (or horrible depending on point of view) thing happened. Started noticing all the lines I smash over night stopped ever winning games! Got to point it was either arb or not bet overnights much, didn’t have desire for option A. I don’t like line moving against me anymore but I’m perfectly happy waiting for certain ones to be pushed up them play a good price! Obviously better to have better number it just doesn’t make me feel warm and cozy like it used to! Lol
 
This a super interesting game for Gallen, I have no clue which way his out total gonna move, I grabbed some ov 17.5 outs at -140. Think his k price been going up, this game has a small dilemma as in I prefer he k’s no more than 1 a inning, they need to get him back to the guy they can count on to go 6+, his 1st pitch strikes been the biggest culprit so looking for him to get back into the zone and get giants to hit into some quick outs. Good park for it and giants have been great about allowing rhp to pitch deep into games on them. We never see a -140 on Gallen go go 6 again if he comes out and pitches like he should tonight so I played -140. If it goes down I’ll consider either buying more or I’ll be looking at A alt k number as I think one will happen for sure, he either pitches deep and will be right around 5-6 k’s or he fans 7+ and done by 5th.
 
Town on Shota-son. I mean I grabbed the +120 on ov 6.5 k’s off the top. I don’t think I want it all invested there tho, his price on 17.5 outs is Redic. I paid -200 for someone few years back but I made the case it shoulda been -300 and was right, I don’t think I can make the case here, not enough history. Seriously considering pirates Ff tt u1.5, he been getting touched up w some bombs this month but the hits mostly way down, pirates not exactly a bunch of mashers! Without a home run or any shit defense I think they struggle to bring in 2.
 
2daBank said:
This a super interesting game for Gallen, I have no clue which way his out total gonna move, I grabbed some ov 17.5 outs at -140. Think his k price been going up, this game has a small dilemma as in I prefer he k’s no more than 1 a inning, they need to get him back to the guy they can count on to go 6+, his 1st pitch strikes been the biggest culprit so looking for him to get back into the zone and get giants to hit into some quick outs. Good park for it and giants have been great about allowing rhp to pitch deep into games on them. We never see a -140 on Gallen go go 6 again if he comes out and pitches like he should tonight so I played -140. If it goes down I’ll consider either buying more or I’ll be looking at A alt k number as I think one will happen for sure, he either pitches deep and will be right around 5-6 k’s or he fans 7+ and done by 5th.
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I actually like the over 17.5 outs more than the 6.5 Ks. He's only K'd more than 6 once in 10 starts vs the Giants. But you figure, if he goes 18 outs, 7 of them could be from strike outs? IDK.. but Jonathon Freaking Cannon and Adam Oller went 6 innings vs the Giants recently, if Gallen can't then maybe he needs to lay off the booze.
 
2daBank said:
This a super interesting game for Gallen, I have no clue which way his out total gonna move, I grabbed some ov 17.5 outs at -140. Think his k price been going up, this game has a small dilemma as in I prefer he k’s no more than 1 a inning, they need to get him back to the guy they can count on to go 6+, his 1st pitch strikes been the biggest culprit so looking for him to get back into the zone and get giants to hit into some quick outs. Good park for it and giants have been great about allowing rhp to pitch deep into games on them. We never see a -140 on Gallen go go 6 again if he comes out and pitches like he should tonight so I played -140. If it goes down I’ll consider either buying more or I’ll be looking at A alt k number as I think one will happen for sure, he either pitches deep and will be right around 5-6 k’s or he fans 7+ and done by 5th.
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His fastball has been hitting a lot of barrels. Not sure if it's fatigue after the deep run last season for the first time or what the story is. I don't thing the velo is really down much but it simply hasn't had the movement that it has in the past. Kinda hoped they'd let him skip a start at some point because if he's pitching the way he's been it won't be worth much in the postseason
 
peelpub94 said:
I actually like the over 17.5 outs more than the 6.5 Ks. He's only K'd more than 6 once in 10 starts vs the Giants. But you figure, if he goes 18 outs, 7 of them could be from strike outs? IDK.. but Jonathon Freaking Cannon and Adam Oller went 6 innings vs the Giants recently, if Gallen can't then maybe he needs to lay off the booze.
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Oh yes no doubt, that why I played the outs! The k’s was still 5.5 last I saw with like -165 to over, just saying that if I get to a point I’m nervous bout k’s I could put a little on that. We agree at moment im just on the outs, makes more sense but just tad nervous giants been punching out a lot, if he continues w the lower 1st pitch strike rate I could end up annoyed if he striking out guys in deeper counts. Just the little guy in back my head playing devil advocate (might actually be devil i don’t ask, lol)..
 
KJ said:
His fastball has been hitting a lot of barrels. Not sure if it's fatigue after the deep run last season for the first time or what the story is. I don't thing the velo is really down much but it simply hasn't had the movement that it has in the past. Kinda hoped they'd let him skip a start at some point because if he's pitching the way he's been it won't be worth much in the postseason
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He clearly not hitting spots cause the 1dt pitch k down like 10% at least. Stands to reason if he not locating guys gonna make more contact when he in zone then presto he starts going deep into counts trying to punch out guys which ain’t his game, they should just come naturally as he pitches more efficient.
 
peelpub94 said:
He's also walking more
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All starts with locating that 1st pitch strike. The fact they sending him back on his normal 4 I feel like everything fine. I feel like he getting close. He has had to face some tough lineups llately but his 1st pitch strike rate has been much more where I wanna see it 4 of last 6 games. That really the key, get ahead and have them hitting pitches out the zone. He falls behind and guys get patient and he has to work lot more.
 
There have been 2 games in MLB history where a player had:

6+ RBI
5+ times on base
4+ XBH
3+ HR
a leadoff HR
a HR in the 9th or later

Both were by Kyle Schwarber within the last 30 days.


...And he just did it again just now.
 
I always hate myself when I play schwarber ov h,r,rbi and he jacks leadoff bomb. Happy to bet but always feel like all shoulda played hr prop! Be nice if Phillies get the 2 before end of inning
 
So my mini answer fo gallen since I’m still tad nervous bout my play on his outs was to play him to get the W +130,, he only has to pitch 5 to cash that I’m confident he at least goes 5+ and snakes outta have runs for him, lol
 
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small play on Bobby miller ov 15.5 outs +105., he has struggled to get into the 6th but feel like lad has incentive to see what happens long as things going ok, good park for him to get some quick fly outs.
 
Boom Philly team total hits.’

Another I couldn’t resist.

Red Sox Ff tt ov1.5 -160 .. they in a RR for me w Philly ov and oak Ff tt ov. Parlay w what you like it was just a bit juicy for me. They have not been hitting but if megil who has awful splits vs lefties holds down this lefty heavy lineup I’ll tip my cap!
 
Harper get hurt? I see they just PH for him

Took SD f5 tt o2.5 -110, no reason to think they can't get to 3 the way they're hitting righties at the moment. Montero isn't someone I'm scared of to sit 'em down.
 
KJ said:
Harper get hurt? I see they just PH for him

Took SD f5 tt o2.5 -110, no reason to think they can't get to 3 the way they're hitting righties at the moment. Montero isn't someone I'm scared of to sit 'em down.
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Hit by pitch in elbow
 
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Also LAD/LAA o10 -110

Fading Miller, Canning, LAD bullpen, LAA bullpen. Both teams should be able to hit all that bullshit on the mound tonight me thinks.
 
2daBank said:
I just can’t feel this cat like you been, you been spot on so far tho, maybe cause my wife French and I always talk shit bout her and French, even tho they always winning the soccer! I don’t even know he is French bout sounds like, lol.

Anyways I have doubts this run continues today, not saying he fluky but also not sure some these numbers gonna stick, I couldn’t turn down Philly Ff Tt ov 1.5, if he beats me or Philly stays cold I’ll tip my cap. Doesn’t mean he ain’t gonna punch out a bunch also.
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He hit it :)
 
My fav inconsistent pain in the ass back on my card. Gore has actually pitched well lately, if he keeps his walks down he can pretty much handle any lineup, and we just watched freaking Patrick Corbin punch out 8 fish! If you get sat down that much by Corbin any lefty can mow you down

Gore iv 5.5 k’s
 
bulldogs said:
I mean why even think about it. They get beat by more than 1.5 every game it seems.
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Yea shoooda cashed gm 1 and been done. Either way been done but cannon even money to punch 4 worth it. Even Flexen got 4 and he was clearly still drunk.
 
Can’t believe it but besides A’s Ff tt ov 1.5, Ff ml, langerliers ov 1.5 h,r, rbi but i took a small stab at Kirby u17.5 outs +140 it prob get higher closer to game.

Cant ignore the improvements in A’s lineup has made, they been one the better hitting teams since asb! Kirby doesn’t have a great numbers vs A’s or in Oakland. It not just the surface stats either, several of A’s hitters have huge exit velo so they seeing his pitches and staring him up. Worth it to me.
 
KJ said:
Also LAD/LAA o10 -110

Fading Miller, Canning, LAD bullpen, LAA bullpen. Both teams should be able to hit all that bullshit on the mound tonight me thinks.
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I think miller pitches well but not like them any kind of track record that agrees, lol. Just think that park should play nicely if he just keeps firing high heat that it getting enough ride to keep a not real good laa lineup swinging underneath it.
 
True to form, Gallen just walked three straight after being ahead 1-2, 0-2 and 1-2. No confidence in his put away pitches at all. Could have been a very short inning, now it will be close to 30 pitches.
 
End of the day Gallen threw 6 innings of no-hit ball but on 100 pitches, obviously didn't come out for the 7th and magically SF put up 4 runs to make the final look competitive. They weren't hitting him, they just made him throw a ton of pitches. 8 ks and 4 walks easily jam that pitch count up.

And thanks to LAA for doing all the lifting on that over, can't believe that Gas Canning shut down the Dodgers' bats
 
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