Wednesday Discussion Thread/Lines

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
NBA - Feb 18
4:05 PM
501 CLEVELAND
502 TORONTO

4:05 PM
503 INDIANA
504 CHARLOTTE

4:35 PM
505 MINNESOTA +10-110 o194½-110
506 MIAMI -10-110 u194½-110

5:05 PM
507 CHICAGO -1½-110 o210-110
508 MILWAUKEE +1½-110 u210-110

5:05 PM
509 ORLANDO +1-110 o190-110
510 NEW ORLEANS -1-110 u190-110

4:05 PM
511 DENVER -1½-110 o203-110
512 PHILADELPHIA +1½-110 u203-110

5:35 PM
513 NEW JERSEY +7-110 o198½-110
514 DALLAS -7-110 u198½-110

7:05 PM
515 MEMPHIS
516 PORTLAND

7:05 PM
517 ATLANTA
518 SACRAMENTO

7:35 PM
519 LA LAKERS
520 GOLDEN STATE

7:35 PM
521 PHOENIX
522 LA CLIPPERS
 
Never saw some of the lines that were up and then got pulled once tonight got under way. Anybody have any of those. Suppose I could go searching but .....

BetCrimes1984 said:
LAC & PHX do it all again? gonna be an interesting total for that one. LAC at home is a diff kettle of fish when it comes to putting up Overs easily.
Click to expand...

No doubt. Wonder if Camby is going to have another "ear infection" tonight?
 
Also I dont think the Clippers had ever put up 2 straight 230/100-100 games before their 252 OT effort w/NYk & this past night's 240 w/PHX, although you'd have to think the AS break helped with that, but 3 straight? I think that's what they'll likely have to put up for an Over here.

FWIW - PHX is 10-2-1 to Under off their last 13 Over results.
 
Last edited:
how soon before wilcox and joe smith come in?

I'd want NO, but only if they're in. They gonna have enough trouble with Dwight without him
 
Nawlins are 11-8 to Over without Chandler in their lineup this season, which may not sound an emphatic number to Over, but it is when you realise they're 23-9 to Under with him in their lineup.

the difference he's meant is even more pronounced for their home games...
U/O 5-5 with him absent from the lineup
U/O 13-4 w/him present in the lineup

The beauty of this situation is all their previous low scoring games are going to exert an influence on their total lines until they've had a decent correction to their overall season bias towards Unders.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

FWIW - Orlando is 8-4 to Over their last 12 away (vs 8-4 to Under their last 12 at home). Magic have a pretty clear bias for totals production depending on venue.
 
SF_capper said:
how soon before wilcox and joe smith come in?

I'd want NO, but only if they're in. They gonna have enough trouble with Dwight without him
Click to expand...

When all physicals are passed. I would assume pretty quick since teams played one another yesterday. If all pass I would assume they are in uniform tonight.
 
Wow. Philly gets a 211 total vs. Indy, which was comical, then only 203 vs. Denver.

Interesting.
 
Miami total could stay way under too in the case of a blowout, which is certainly possible. Tough spot with travel for Minnesota, after a mentally and physically exhausting loss tonight. They no longer have the big man to fuck Miami up down low.
 
This season Philadelphia playing b-b at home is 4-1 under. They have also gone under their last 6 games. Denver has gone under 3 in a row and 5 of their last 7 road games. Do not see that total as an accident. Probably too high.
Was just at a Clipper blog. seems likely right now the Clipper front line will be Jordan. Anyone know how to play Taps.
 
Last edited:
Anyone else kinda think Zach Randolph sits the rest of year? 30 games left, 10 game suspension.. why play him the last 20?
When you thought the Clippers couldn't be disgraced even more they get that shit? I'm thinkin about trying to get Kaman in my fantasy BBall league to kill in the playoffs. WHy would Dunleavy let Randolph play?

For 2ms card, GS should cover. GUessing LA opens -4ish, won't be too surprised with 3. Not quite sure when to play it, but I guess if it opens 4 or better I'll play it on the spot. Homer play? oh yea, but GS thinks they can make the playoffs and have been prepping for this game big time all break considering we had nothing else to do. Biedrins might play. We're on a roll in this homestand and NEED wins before March comes around.

Also, when anyone finds out about New Orleans' players status, can you update?
 
agree with golden state...anytime i can get them at more than a possession at home it's an auto play for the rest of the year
 
I think GS backers will definitely catch more than 3. No way in hell the line is that low. GS just caught 4 vs. Phoenix and 2 vs. Utah (yes I know they won those games). But I mean, 43-10 vs. 19-35 and a spread of 3 points? That'd have to be some sort of a record.
 
sure hope so, but still stand by thinking we get 4. we were just -3 vs portland. Making LA -5 vs Portland +3 is a huge difference imo. But sure hope you're right
 
GS+3.5 (best play of day)

Heat -9.5 (blowout written all over it)

Bucks PK (back to back scares me a bit but Skiles has them playing great since Redd and Bogut went down. They lost to the Bulls at home earlier this year so big time revenge game for Skiles against his old club. Not to mention the Bucks have the better record and are at home on a 3 game ws and we don't have to lay points? O.k...
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Also I dont think the Clippers had ever put up 2 straight 230/100-100 games before their 252 OT effort w/NYk & this past night's 240 w/PHX, although you'd have to think the AS break helped with that, but 3 straight? I think that's what they'll likely have to put up for an Over here.

FWIW - PHX is 10-2-1 to Under off their last 13 Over results.
Click to expand...


Be careful with the Clipshow, theyve changed to an uptempo style of offense (may consider removing them from any 230/100/100 analysis), which is why youre seeing this high scoring affairs. Losing Zebo really hurts though, they had a lot of trouble scoring against a team that plays no D after he was thrown out.
 
wow at these lines. Charlotte giving 4.5, Warriors getting 5, CLips getting 7?! they were just getting 8 at phoenix on front of home and home. I know the differences. Jrich is in, Randolph out, but still
 
Atlanta line moved from 5 to 6 pretty quickly. really think they get the W, but not intereted in layin 6 with atlanta on the road

thinking about Miami
 
and I feel kinda bad about flip floppin, but Charlotte -5 is kinda crazy imo. I wouldnt consider charlotte the better team, and I know about Indi's road struggles, but Charlotte off OT from Orlando? Gerald not full strength, ionno. kinda leanin to points now
 
SF_capper said:
and I feel kinda bad about flip floppin, but Charlotte -5 is kinda crazy imo. I wouldnt consider charlotte the better team, and I know about Indi's road struggles, but Charlotte off OT from Orlando? Gerald not full strength, ionno. kinda leanin to points now
Click to expand...

Agree with that one. Cats laying medium chalk off an OT game and travel should be reserved for pretty damn shitty teams. Indy doesn't fit in that category.
 
fuck I just realized my 2 favorite games are on espn. I hate having my games being nationally televised, always have this weird feeling on these games as an extra capping component that I'm not up to.

hopefully New Orleans wants to embarass Orlando as much as they were embarassed on xmas
hopefully GS comes out fired up as they typically do at home on espn

played GS +5 for huge and gonna play New Orleans. Leaning to Miami, Indi, and Philly with small small direction leans to Portland and LAC
 
this'll be crazy if Phoenix ends up over -9. Typical home and homes see like 8/9 pt swings when the first home team wins the 1st game. can we see a line move the other way?!
 
Key feature with GS is that the game is less than nothing to LA. They play a ex team mate they liked just before a revenge game against NO.
 
Updated Lines

<TABLE border=0 cellPadding=6 align=center><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eff3fc><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
7:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>-7.5
+7.5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>CLEVELAND -350
TORONTO +290
OU 190</TD></TR><TR class=body2><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
7:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>+5
-5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>INDIANA +200
CHARLOTTE -230
OU 202</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eff3fc><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
7:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>-1
+1</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>DENVER -110
PHILADELPHIA -110
OU 200.5</TD></TR><TR class=body2><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
7:35 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>+9.5
-9.5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>MINNESOTA +425
MIAMI -550
OU 195</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eff3fc><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
8:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>-2
+2</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>CHICAGO -130
MILWAUKEE +110
OU 206.5</TD></TR><TR class=body2><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
8:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>+2
-2</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>ORLANDO +110
NEW ORLEANS -130
OU 189</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eff3fc><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
8:35 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>+7.5
-7.5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>NEW JERSEY +300
DALLAS -360
OU 199</TD></TR><TR class=body2><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
10:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>+11
-11</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>MEMPHIS
PORTLAND
OU 196</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eff3fc><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
10:05 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>-5
+5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>ATLANTA -220
SACRAMENTO +190
OU 208</TD></TR><TR class=body2><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
10:35 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>-5
+5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>LA LAKERS -220
GOLDEN STATE +190
OU 228.5</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eff3fc><TD class=events vAlign=top colSpan=2 noWrap>Feb 18
10:35 pm
matchup
preview</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=right>-7.5
+7.5</TD><TD class=event vAlign=top noWrap align=left>PHOENIX -340
LA CLIPPERS +280
OU 228</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
SF_capper said:
Anyone else kinda think Zach Randolph sits the rest of year? 30 games left, 10 game suspension.. why play him the last 20?
When you thought the Clippers couldn't be disgraced even more they get that shit? I'm thinkin about trying to get Kaman in my fantasy BBall league to kill in the playoffs. WHy would Dunleavy let Randolph play?

For 2ms card, GS should cover. GUessing LA opens -4ish, won't be too surprised with 3. Not quite sure when to play it, but I guess if it opens 4 or better I'll play it on the spot. Homer play? oh yea, but GS thinks they can make the playoffs and have been prepping for this game big time all break considering we had nothing else to do. Biedrins might play. We're on a roll in this homestand and NEED wins before March comes around.

Also, when anyone finds out about New Orleans' players status, can you update?
Click to expand...
What a pussy ass sucker punch he pulled last night. He's always been one.
 
A couple teams with nice revenge angles in effect tonight....


The Hornets lost @ ORL 88-68, shooting 33% & 4-16 from 3 pt land. Orlando off an ot come from behind win vs the Cats, sets up fairly well. I don't like the fact that th Hornets squeeked by the Thunder last night, but I tend to think they pull out the home win.....


Dallas- lost @ NJ 127-97, where Devin got his revenge- 41 pts 13 assists. NJ on a b2b after getting blown out by the Rockets last night, with distractions thanks to Vince's uncertainty with the team. I do think this line is a bit inflated, but nonetheless would lean home team.


Philly- solid home team with revenge, catching pts (presumably because of the b2b off a loss). Since Jan 1st, the Sixers are 10-3 @ home. The 3 losses? 2 pt loss to Dallas (coming off 7 straight wins), a 2 pt loss to NJ (b2b), and a 1 pt loss to the Celtics. Philly a definite play for me today.


I think a Mavs/Sixers/Heat ML parlay would fare well.
 
Took Grizz plus 6.5 and over 96 first half today. 3/4ths a unit each. Do not understand either number. Since the transition the Grizz have covered 4 straight on the road first half. At Utah a tough first half venue it was 56-56. The last 4 games they have out rebounded the opposition by 55 rebounds. Last 5 at the site they have lost the first half 1 time. The one time was with the ex coach who played the 20 points a quarter style and this happened.
Memphis 27 and then 21
Portland 24-31
103 points and they lost by 7
They do not like Portland and do not play any 20 point quarter structure. Last b-b road game at OKC
Mm 37-20
Okc 24-32
Last 4 home games Portland has scored 53, 59, 52, 56 in the first half.
Last 4 for Mempis were 3 big numbers and 1 small one against Philaelphia a team playing good d. Portland does not play good d.
 
metsrp86 said:
Be careful with the Clipshow, theyve changed to an uptempo style of offense (may consider removing them from any 230/100/100 analysis), which is why youre seeing this high scoring affairs. Losing Zebo really hurts though, they had a lot of trouble scoring against a team that plays no D after he was thrown out.
Click to expand...

For all their tempo change it'd made no difference on the 230 front.
 
kelenna and andris are OUT tonight via rotoworld. kelenna meese dup his knee yest n practice, biedrins syill not recovered. guessing that moved maggette to PF to match up with odom. so starters we have

Monta-Fisher
Crawford-Kobe
Jackson-Walton
Maggette-Odom
Turiaf-Biedrins
--altho jackson prolly guards kobe

bench with
farmar-cj watson
vujacic-morrow/belinelli (im guessing with no kelenna we see either morrow/belinelli with the PT)
ariza-randolph
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Nawlins are 11-8 to Over without Chandler in their lineup this season, which may not sound an emphatic number to Over, but it is when you realise they're 23-9 to Under with him in their lineup.

the difference he's meant is even more pronounced for their home games...
U/O 5-5 with him absent from the lineup
U/O 13-4 w/him present in the lineup

The beauty of this situation is all their previous low scoring games are going to exert an influence on their total lines until they've had a decent correction to their overall season bias towards Unders.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

FWIW - Orlando is 8-4 to Over their last 12 away (vs 8-4 to Under their last 12 at home). Magic have a pretty clear bias for totals production depending on venue.
Click to expand...

bingo
 
someone at blankets posted Chandler failed the physical for Okie so the deal is off. Found nothing on the net but if true that's a real pisser.
 
57-53 Portland at half time. If the Griss had shot free throws at all well they would have won su but got side and total. Hope I had company.
 
LAL down 6 at half. If you think LAL loses, GSW plus the points is appealing....
 
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