Wed NBA

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Just starting the look ahead thread. Been en fuego with Sides but Not so Good with Totals....

I'll breakdown the games at some point...

Looking strong early:

Charlotte +7 or better - The whole world be impressed with SA blow out win and cite revenge for a play. However this line is seriously flawed I will argue it should be -5 or -5.5 at the highest.....

Indy -2 ++ - The Pacers were ragged at the end of there trip well this is the end of Orl successful trip. Indy lost a close one in ORL and I think we possibly should have seen -3 here ...solid play not strong though

Cavs / Raps - You have to be aware of Bosh's eye infection and Cle off a beating....

NO / LAL - Same deal Kobe gametime and NO still could be w/o there TRIO

Wiz +1 - Line makes no sense....first meeting NYK caught 3 at home...
NY improving but Toronto and Memphis are NOT as good as Wiz depite records....one thing Home team owns the series 8 of 10...

mem/ Bos - Need an injury update on Perkins , Pierce and Wally..

Minny +1 - Seems like everyone has slept on Minny...really havent even looked at this yet...

Blazers +7.5 - Could a win breed some momentum?? Have to look at this one as well but off the top of my head seems high for Milwaukee..not sure of series history

Atl / Den - An Over?? have to look at any dog catching 10....

Philly +8.5- Chi is HOT but could be overvalued after the beating they threw down on Boston. I really didnt look at the bottom half of the crad much.....
 
(XLarge Play) downgraded to Large Play

Charlotte +8 -110 & Value Play on the ML +310(which means 1/8 the size)

For the life of mean I cant figure out how this line is so high. Understandable the Spurs are looking for revenge but I think its clearly the fact SA just won by 40!! Now if you noticed I faded GS both these days so I would say GS was more responsible for the blowout finals then there opponents were. I also felt +4 ws to much for Char to be getting on Sunday..

The way I have it this is game that deserves a 5 or 5.5 tag..at best. Looking back Charlotte has never been higher then +4 this season and they were +11.5 in SA earlier but caught the Spurs in a bad spot but that number even if good solidifies my belief of the 5 range( I know run-on sentence). Think SA highest chalk was -6 @ Port which I thought was abit cheap and pounded SA that Mon nite but even at 7.5 I would think Char is a better , more consistent team then Portland. In fact while SA has owned Char in its early years the Spurs were 8.5 and 8 pt favs in the 1st seasons @ Char. Now has Char made some strides this season to deserve better.

Matt Carroll is OUT it appears which is unfortunate since he has played well off the bench of late. However I did notice that in the 1st meeting it really was all the starters who played 40++ minutes of a game that saw an OT session.

Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.


Dare I say with how poor I have done on totals I lean towards the UNDER..

Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
 
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(Large )

Wolves ML -110

Basically here I thought Minny was way undervalued when they visited Houston earlier this year. They manage a ATS win but lost SU. Here they have continued there improve play and had some rest while Hous is back to back. I had this about MIN -2.5 and it opened +1.

Houston just isnt much better then an average away team IMO based on performance and previous spreads. You see defeats to Utah , NO , Det & Pho with somewhat narrow wins to teams like Memphis , NYK , and Milw . They blew out a struggling Miami squad as there only impressive away win IMO...
 
NCAAB

Providence +15 -110 (down to medium) i just dont like Fruars no road games yet..

The Gators are struggling losing to Kansas and FSU now. Brewer is OUT with Mono while Noah has battled an upper resp infection. The Friars have played well at home except they havent traveled yet. They met last 12/6 and Providence hung around at home as 5.5 pt dogs. Really Prov only lost McGrath and Brewer is not playing...so I just think this should be a very competitive game and you need to FADE perception...I have also faded FLA against KU and FSU ....

Okalhoma mL -143 (medium)
LTech +4 -110 (Medium)ML

Denver U +15.5 -110 (small)ML
Utah +7.5 -110 (small)ML
Old Dom +9 -110 (small) ML
 
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SportsNut said:
Spurs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 Wednesday games.
Click to expand...


SN,

You don't really believe this trend you state matters, do you?



GL

MM
 
Good luck Sportsnut. The plays look solid.

I'm on Providence as well. Even putting down a small play on the the Friars ML +1140 for shiite's and giggles.
:shake:
 
Don't understand how you can back Charlotte here. Sure, there is VALUE in the line. But just because a book compensates for some factors... doesn't mean that the line is wrong. When's the last time a team not named the Mavs has beaten SAS 2 times in a row? SAS would have to be completely unmotivated to not win this game. Only way I see a cover is if they fold em in... and they might with the team being banged up right now. Otherwise, a point or two of value b/c a revenge factor isn't really value IMO.
 
MountainMan said:
SN,

You don't really believe this trend you state matters, do you?



GL

MM
Click to expand...


MM its the only reason I played this game. Just kidding of course not...I find them comical as do you so its kind of a running joke that I post them cause they are kept track of by someone....
 
Inspekdah said:
Don't understand how you can back Charlotte here. Sure, there is VALUE in the line. But just because a book compensates for some factors... doesn't mean that the line is wrong. When's the last time a team not named the Mavs has beaten SAS 2 times in a row? SAS would have to be completely unmotivated to not win this game. Only way I see a cover is if they fold em in... and they might with the team being banged up right now. Otherwise, a point or two of value b/c a revenge factor isn't really value IMO.
Click to expand...

The key is over compensates along with the betting public not understanding this factor. Its the same reson we liked Wash on Monday so I cant understand the suprise? In the NBA a 2 pt difference in a line is like a TD in the NFL. Every big bet I have hammered is probably a line that is only off my two points but its a fade on perception.

Where did I say Char was going to win...there is a quite range between WIN and loss by 8 points isnt there? I am saying they will be competitive in this game ..I respect your opinions but I will simply say just check my history when it comes to picking out bad lines cheap or fat .....

This is a scary situation cause they want to get some payback for losing to a bottomfeeder no doubt . Bobcats can be hot and cold but explain to be how SA is 11 pts better on a neutral court. Its an easy opportunity for an oddsmakers to shade a bit higher and have SA money...at the end of teh day it might be a close game and the final is 6 pt margin and SA backers will be saying things like I got screwed I had the right side...blah , blah just like lwhat happened in MNF with Carolina...you bet bad lines and you getthe bad breaks iMO..

Probably play the 1st Half as well..If I was so sure I would go drop a 100K on it but here's the risk factor .....my logic vs the books prices...

GL
 
Basically me leans right now are :

Indy -2 , Cavs -8.5 (Bosh status?) , Memphis ( Boston will be w/o Perkins as well) , Portland , Wiz , Lakers ( begging Kobe to not play!!) plus some total looks be back later !
 
So--- a placebo is given and the phoney medication deludes the patient into feeling better and he then performs better because of it and that is different from a team performing better on a day of the week because by what was initally a coincidence that they had played better on that day of the week how? Playing well is primarily Mental. How you think you are going to play has real inpact.
 
Thanks for the good answer SN.............

I do respect your opinion and after seeing that stat had to wonder a little. No longer wonder though. Keep up the deep thought..it pays in the long run

GL

MM
 
Nut, do your thing man...
Took the money line last time these two played and cashed bobcats at over +700...
Plus that many points is hard to pass up... GL tonight nut,
'an_horse' 'an_horse'
 
tuck321 said:
So--- a placebo is given and the phoney medication deludes the patient into feeling better and he then performs better because of it and that is different from a team performing better on a day of the week because by what was initally a coincidence that they had played better on that day of the week how? Playing well is primarily Mental. How you think you are going to play has real inpact.
Click to expand...

Agreed its mainly coincidence ....
 
MountainMan said:
Thanks for the good answer SN.............

I do respect your opinion and after seeing that stat had to wonder a little. No longer wonder though. Keep up the deep thought..it pays in the long run

GL

MM
Click to expand...

Thanks MM . I admit though I rather have those trends back up my thoughts then be against me. The universe works in weird ways...I do alot of "guess work" but hopefully I dont ever come across as guessing...GL
 
The Farm said:
Nut, do your thing man...
Took the money line last time these two played and cashed bobcats at over +700...
Plus that many points is hard to pass up... GL tonight nut,
'an_horse' 'an_horse'
Click to expand...

Thanks Farm....GL as well.....

I like 'butting heads' with other cappers. Who are we here without conviction in our thoughts? I am readily willing to admit when I make mistakes and clearly understand his points. I just thought he would understand my take and to me that 2 points in an NBA game is enormous IMO...I rather have a guy like inspekdah voice his opinion , concern then say nothing....

its just hard for me at least to get the proper tone across when I am typing on a message board and not saying it face to face...
 
what did you think about atl - den tonite?? is it realistic to think atl can keep pace with den ? den resting while atl playing b2b.. really like den 1qtr.
 
Thanks guys short on time for now:(ask questions)

Indiana -2 -105 ( Medium)

Cavs -8 -105 (Small)

Grizz +3 -102 (Small) ML +143 (Value)

Wizards +100 (medium)

Blazers +7.5 or +8 (Small)

Leans on the three home teams in strength order Bulls , Lakers and Nuggs
 
Updated

roondog said:
nut... where is your char play??? are you not playing them now??
Click to expand...

I had posted it earlier. Little suprised it hit 8 @ pinny so I knocked it a down a level ...but have now decided to just keep the original size of XL play...large play @ +8 and small @ +8.5...MY PREDICTION IS SPURS by 6!!!

Also I have been busy today and just ahvent put the proper effort forward here so please be cautious tonite...also have a basketball game at 7 be back before 9 ....

7 PM's
Pacers -2 -105 ( medium size) Win +2.00
Cavs -8 (small) fade the Dunkel Index here! Dumbass Loss -1.05
Bobcats +8 -110 (large ) ML +310 (value) +8.5 -110 (small) Dumbass Loss -6.10
Grizz +3.5 -112 (small ) Win +1.00 ML +143 (value)W +1.18 net
Wizards +100 (medium) Win +2.00
Wolves ML -110 (Large) Win +4.00
Blazers +7.5 -105 (small) L -1.18 should have bought 8! ML +310 (value)

Totals
Und 188 -110 SA (small)Win +1.
Und 195.5 -109 Tor (small) Win +1
Over 186 -109 Orl (small)Loss -1.09
Over 101.5 +100 Wash 1st H (small) Win +1.00 (could be a sucker bet!)


looking athe overs @ 9pms and Under late game..
 
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Late edition:

Nuggets -6.5 -112 1st H (small) Beware of the total ATL is shorthanded. L -1.12

Over 197 -109 Philly ( Large) Win +4.00

Bulls -9 -110 (lean) (gonna wait till half)


2nd H

Minny +1 -106 (small) Win +1.00

Hedge Milw -5 -114 (small)W +1.00
 
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Congrats Spurs backers I was wrong. Wish I was around at half might have tried to hedge...especially Inspekadeh...

What Brevin get ejected or something??
 
Nut, just so you're aware: your private message inbox is so full it cannot receive any new messages. So unless you start reading and deleting (or shifting), you'll be out of whatever loops you got going on.
 
Philly just sucks. I hate them :hairout:

They're going to ruin my perfect night :moose:
 
I'm hoping philly can get within 15 and position themselves for a backdoor cover. It's not looking good but it's still early. GL:cheers:
 
I wish I took Chi I was so close ...thanks Bet I'll take care of it. I sosmeone trying to PM me?? I am sure Eames is ...
 
In LA :

Under 189 -110 (medium)

LaL -9-106 (small)...I dont want to Kobe to play...
 
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awesome night Nut...got lucky covering my Bucks -7.5, gotta love nights like these where everything seems to fall into place.
 
xpression syst_m said:
awesome night Nut...got lucky covering my Bucks -7.5, gotta love nights like these where everything seems to fall into place.
Click to expand...

pretty good I fucked up 1 or 2 though...nice calls with Milw and Ind...I dont know why I didnt pound Indy though...just got sidetracked today..Thursday is such a welcome day off....3 games....
 
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