Well the nite started out with Dallas and Pho mauling there Eastern Conference foes. Not really to my suprise since it seemed like the prevailing wisdom was the lines were to big. Unfortunately I told myself fuck it and rolled big plays with them. The next mistake was backing NO. I know they have played well but any time you have a bad team as a small road dog be cautious. Think back a few nites ago when NO was like 6 pt dogs in Atlanta cant say there is much difference bewteen those two bottomfeeders. Unfortunately Denver is for real which I know but thought maybe Seattle could beat them ...they did in 3 of the 4 quarters it was the one losing on ethat proved to much. Although they lead 106-103 with 3 to play...Nuggs rolled 10 straight points. Allen had a mini-meltdown with some turnovers resulting ion Den buckets. Any way I nailed my best best in Seattle over and actually made some coin with 2nd Halves!! So maybe I have righted the ship cause the majority of my opinions were correct tonite.
HUGE WED card....
> Pistons @ Charlotte : Well BAR beat me to the punch here. I absolutely agree that after two embarassing defeats to Charlotte the Pistons are in revenge mode. They showed me alot blowing out Sacramento from the opening tip. Billups return is huge and I still think Webber's signing at the end of the day will be a big plus. For all the shit he takes I can see him dishing off to Rip and Chauncey much more then the Black Hole Rasheed Wallace. You go over to Covers.com and read how Saunders is quoted as saying Webber probably hsould have 9 more assists already and the team will like his dishing ability. Now that makes me feel wise since I said it before the article. The Bobcats should really miss Sean May(Questionable, hasnt played in bout a week) and Primo Brezec here. Not sure of Wallace's situation think Redbearde said he sat out Tuesday pratice.
Looking at somewhere bewteen a 3 to 5 unit play on the Pistons @ -6.5 . Little suprised the total went to 186.5 but I still lean to the under. Might be a small play later on
> Philly @ Cleveland : Tend to like the Sixers here w/o much research. Just dont like Cavs as big favs and like Philly as big dogs. I think Cheeks has found something starting his bigs together Hunter and Dalembert. At the end of the day Phillys Defense is still unimpressive and with a long run of overs in the series I look for that to continue since I feel Philly is competitive here IMO. Willie Green's status is unknown .
Like I said in Killa's thread Phillys defense has been poor of late going back to the West Coast trip that started in GSW. All there opponents have scored I believe 97 + in the road games. Cleveland after a bad performance should be focused. Previously the Cavs trio of LeBron , Gooden and Zydrunas have given Philly fits. Philly has moved Hunter in the starting lineup with Dalembert now. A move I like. Both teams are allowing 40% from three pt recently on a highvolume of shots. As big chalk at home -8 or better Cavs are just 3-6 ATS. A concern would be FT shooting as Cavs are again struggling at the line. With Leron now part of the problem down to 70% on the season. Two 6 for 13 performances last 5 but he also had 12/14 & 13/15 games in that span.
At the end of the day I expect this to be competitive but wuz suprised we saw the game go to -11 and the total dip to 187. I find it hard to believe Cavs cant crack 100 here. The Cavs trio avgs 60 pts against Cle but I think that is higher in recent meetings. My worst case for this is 96-85 which puts us on 181...I respect Killa obvioulsy but its hard to not like an over here. I had the total @ 190.5 .
> Miami @ Indiana: Gonna wait on Wade and Tinsleys status expect a PK here. If Wade is OUT hoping Indy is only -3 or so which makes them very attractive. Thinking healthy Wade equals 193 total and 191 w/o him.
Well Wade's status is uncertain as is Shaq's. It sounds as if Wade could play. I just dont know if they priced him into the spread or not. I had expected -3 w/o Wade so I think they priced him as OUT. I could be wrong though. Miami struggles in Indiana and if Wade is OUT I do really like Indiana here. With a slight lean towards the under.
At the end I need to know who is playing for Miami but like Indiana. have to think that Miami will be overvalued in a sense thanks to the NYL beatdown.
> NO @ Tor : Looks like Ford is doubtful and would expect another 8 pt spread here. Say 190.5 total...
Okay I expect Ford to miss based on how the have described his injury but this is my GUESS. I actually like the points here. Calderon stepped up and played well in his absence. I just think pyschologically teams get up that 1st game when starts are out. The Hornets lost in Philly last nite and are back to back. I think they are a better team then what Charlotte has to offer , a much better team.
Going to play New Orleans here probably for 3 units @ +8.5. Really not sure about the total its very tight IMO. For NO to cover slight Over lean cause worst case I would have 191 , 192 pts in that situation. Well thats not true I could see 187,188...here as well...
> Atl @ Boston: Boston is OFF the board but really shouldnt be IMO ....expect Boston -2.5 w/o Wally World (-3.5 with) and 185.5 total . I do like the Celts here in the rematch...
The total at 184 looks low but its fairly tight. I do like Boston and Wally should help think Boston is around 95/96 pts where Atl is 87/88. Hate to lay -4 here but Boston is desperate for a win and ATL is just not a team I want to back on the road.
Just looking at the Celtics here and it will be a play. Size is the issue..
> Suns @ NYK: Another OFF game with Suns @ NYK. Looks like Marybury wont go so expecting -8.5 / 218. Part of me didnt like the defensive effort by NYK in Miami but I think this game plays Under.....so hoping for a ridiculous total...
Well my guesstimate was right. Well call me crazy but I am thinking about NYK and the Under despite Marburys absence . The Suns havent been great as road chalk and the Wiz game had alot of motivation for them. The backend is of no concern . Its more they shot 60% and 57% past two. They also had just 2 games above 108 pts away since that game @ Boston . NYK wants to run like PHO does which scares me. I just think NY is capable of good defense and that might be emphasized afte the Heat game. I alsothink NY is up for this game as well. What I do like is PHO trouble in NY with just 1 win past 5 trips. That one win was the great starting 5 of the Suns that included Joe Johnson and Q with the 3 current stud holdevers Nash , Marion and Amare! One thing is Crawford has played well , very well against PHO where marbury onlt had one huge game vs them. The NYK team was bad Ariza , Kurt Thomas and Mohammed (Sweetney) was the frontline.
You have to like Quentin playing his old team and he is playing like the player we expected him to be. Curry is a beast and if Crawford plays to prior meetings this could get interesting. Crawford has 40 and 29 past 2 home games with 21 in PHO earlier. I think I will playing NYK and possibly the Under....
Later slate
> Rockets @ Spurs : I am a little weary here. Spurs have revenge after being embarrassed on there home court. Hou is not playing poorly but still has dropped 3 straight. Not a good spot for Houston here...
Bottomline is Spurs have revenge for an embarrassing home loss here. They had won 7 straight in the series. I dont trust SA much after they fucked me versus LAL but Houston has dropped 3 straight. Withhow Hous has been playing on both ends of the ball it would be suprising for me to see an Under. The Rockets worst case get 80 here and really thats closer to 85. They have allowed 100 + 4 straight . Hard to believe we dont se Spurs cracking 95.
> Memphis @ Utah: Memphis is untouchable on the road at the moment. Utah seems to be getting its act together ....wont say I lean Under but I do only cause I cant see memphis competing...115-101...
Well I dont see how one could entertain Memphis on the road. The Jazz are playing real well and I might go for a 1st half play. While the under looks attractive it again simle boils down to the comeptiveness of the game. If Mem covered it certainly goes Over but as said thats a tough sell. I dont see how Utah doesnt crack 115. So really worst case is about 212 points...figure 114-98...
Thinking Utah 1st half or -12 not sure. However I am starting to like the over here in Utah. Especially if it creeps lower. Utah has scored 105,106,110 past 3 at home. Utah is putting teams on the FT line at an alarming rate!! Miami shot 45 and they shot 54!! Only 130 shots that game and 229 pts!!!Thats beyond insane. Memphis gets to the line alot and put opponents there alot....this will be the secondary key to the game...1st half over..??
> Minny @ Portland :have to ride Minny with a new coach and it seems like the players like Wittman. The total seems awfully low with Minnhy defensive effort lately
Not crazy about Wolves as road chalk but last trip to Portland ended with a buzzer beating loss. I think the total is way low but with a new coach defense could emphasised ..certainly could see 93-87 game. Previously 8 straight unders in the series including 5 in Portland.
Looking at small play on the Wolves with a new coach. Probably stay away from the total.
> Bucks @ Kings: Not sure Sac is playing good enough to lay 10 pt sto anyone even Milw. I think this one plays under though as Kings offense has been lacking ....
Bogut got into foul trouble early and they cant afford to lose him. Really hard to get involved. I cant see laying 10 with Kings as they have struggled on offense. Which while its like they score 99 or better here still make sthe under attractive...101-90?
> NJN @ GSW:tend to lean towards GS in the late one. I really like the new look Warriors and while 6 seems high they were just 5 to Sacramento so it makes sense in that manner. Kristic really played well in the last meeting and can Moore duplicate his play? You get Harrington and Jackson fresh off the but kicking they just took in NJ which lead to the deal IMO....Kidd and Carter didnt play well in the Sac game and the will wear down as NJ becomes overdependent on them... Earlier NJ trailed nearly every minute of the first 3 quarters but managed to win the fourth by 14! Tend to lean Under 206....
The wrench in my plans here is Baron Davis being gametime decision. They dont have much at PG really. Ellis and Jaskevicius(spelling?).
I think NJ will struggle to score and lean Under especially with better defensive players in GSW now. However hoping Davis plays but think regrdless I will roll with GSW..just not sire how big..
Good Luck . We will take it up tmrw...
HUGE WED card....
> Pistons @ Charlotte : Well BAR beat me to the punch here. I absolutely agree that after two embarassing defeats to Charlotte the Pistons are in revenge mode. They showed me alot blowing out Sacramento from the opening tip. Billups return is huge and I still think Webber's signing at the end of the day will be a big plus. For all the shit he takes I can see him dishing off to Rip and Chauncey much more then the Black Hole Rasheed Wallace. You go over to Covers.com and read how Saunders is quoted as saying Webber probably hsould have 9 more assists already and the team will like his dishing ability. Now that makes me feel wise since I said it before the article. The Bobcats should really miss Sean May(Questionable, hasnt played in bout a week) and Primo Brezec here. Not sure of Wallace's situation think Redbearde said he sat out Tuesday pratice.
Looking at somewhere bewteen a 3 to 5 unit play on the Pistons @ -6.5 . Little suprised the total went to 186.5 but I still lean to the under. Might be a small play later on
> Philly @ Cleveland : Tend to like the Sixers here w/o much research. Just dont like Cavs as big favs and like Philly as big dogs. I think Cheeks has found something starting his bigs together Hunter and Dalembert. At the end of the day Phillys Defense is still unimpressive and with a long run of overs in the series I look for that to continue since I feel Philly is competitive here IMO. Willie Green's status is unknown .
Like I said in Killa's thread Phillys defense has been poor of late going back to the West Coast trip that started in GSW. All there opponents have scored I believe 97 + in the road games. Cleveland after a bad performance should be focused. Previously the Cavs trio of LeBron , Gooden and Zydrunas have given Philly fits. Philly has moved Hunter in the starting lineup with Dalembert now. A move I like. Both teams are allowing 40% from three pt recently on a highvolume of shots. As big chalk at home -8 or better Cavs are just 3-6 ATS. A concern would be FT shooting as Cavs are again struggling at the line. With Leron now part of the problem down to 70% on the season. Two 6 for 13 performances last 5 but he also had 12/14 & 13/15 games in that span.
At the end of the day I expect this to be competitive but wuz suprised we saw the game go to -11 and the total dip to 187. I find it hard to believe Cavs cant crack 100 here. The Cavs trio avgs 60 pts against Cle but I think that is higher in recent meetings. My worst case for this is 96-85 which puts us on 181...I respect Killa obvioulsy but its hard to not like an over here. I had the total @ 190.5 .
> Miami @ Indiana: Gonna wait on Wade and Tinsleys status expect a PK here. If Wade is OUT hoping Indy is only -3 or so which makes them very attractive. Thinking healthy Wade equals 193 total and 191 w/o him.
Well Wade's status is uncertain as is Shaq's. It sounds as if Wade could play. I just dont know if they priced him into the spread or not. I had expected -3 w/o Wade so I think they priced him as OUT. I could be wrong though. Miami struggles in Indiana and if Wade is OUT I do really like Indiana here. With a slight lean towards the under.
At the end I need to know who is playing for Miami but like Indiana. have to think that Miami will be overvalued in a sense thanks to the NYL beatdown.
> NO @ Tor : Looks like Ford is doubtful and would expect another 8 pt spread here. Say 190.5 total...
Okay I expect Ford to miss based on how the have described his injury but this is my GUESS. I actually like the points here. Calderon stepped up and played well in his absence. I just think pyschologically teams get up that 1st game when starts are out. The Hornets lost in Philly last nite and are back to back. I think they are a better team then what Charlotte has to offer , a much better team.
Going to play New Orleans here probably for 3 units @ +8.5. Really not sure about the total its very tight IMO. For NO to cover slight Over lean cause worst case I would have 191 , 192 pts in that situation. Well thats not true I could see 187,188...here as well...
> Atl @ Boston: Boston is OFF the board but really shouldnt be IMO ....expect Boston -2.5 w/o Wally World (-3.5 with) and 185.5 total . I do like the Celts here in the rematch...
The total at 184 looks low but its fairly tight. I do like Boston and Wally should help think Boston is around 95/96 pts where Atl is 87/88. Hate to lay -4 here but Boston is desperate for a win and ATL is just not a team I want to back on the road.
Just looking at the Celtics here and it will be a play. Size is the issue..
> Suns @ NYK: Another OFF game with Suns @ NYK. Looks like Marybury wont go so expecting -8.5 / 218. Part of me didnt like the defensive effort by NYK in Miami but I think this game plays Under.....so hoping for a ridiculous total...
Well my guesstimate was right. Well call me crazy but I am thinking about NYK and the Under despite Marburys absence . The Suns havent been great as road chalk and the Wiz game had alot of motivation for them. The backend is of no concern . Its more they shot 60% and 57% past two. They also had just 2 games above 108 pts away since that game @ Boston . NYK wants to run like PHO does which scares me. I just think NY is capable of good defense and that might be emphasized afte the Heat game. I alsothink NY is up for this game as well. What I do like is PHO trouble in NY with just 1 win past 5 trips. That one win was the great starting 5 of the Suns that included Joe Johnson and Q with the 3 current stud holdevers Nash , Marion and Amare! One thing is Crawford has played well , very well against PHO where marbury onlt had one huge game vs them. The NYK team was bad Ariza , Kurt Thomas and Mohammed (Sweetney) was the frontline.
You have to like Quentin playing his old team and he is playing like the player we expected him to be. Curry is a beast and if Crawford plays to prior meetings this could get interesting. Crawford has 40 and 29 past 2 home games with 21 in PHO earlier. I think I will playing NYK and possibly the Under....
Later slate
> Rockets @ Spurs : I am a little weary here. Spurs have revenge after being embarrassed on there home court. Hou is not playing poorly but still has dropped 3 straight. Not a good spot for Houston here...
Bottomline is Spurs have revenge for an embarrassing home loss here. They had won 7 straight in the series. I dont trust SA much after they fucked me versus LAL but Houston has dropped 3 straight. Withhow Hous has been playing on both ends of the ball it would be suprising for me to see an Under. The Rockets worst case get 80 here and really thats closer to 85. They have allowed 100 + 4 straight . Hard to believe we dont se Spurs cracking 95.
> Memphis @ Utah: Memphis is untouchable on the road at the moment. Utah seems to be getting its act together ....wont say I lean Under but I do only cause I cant see memphis competing...115-101...
Well I dont see how one could entertain Memphis on the road. The Jazz are playing real well and I might go for a 1st half play. While the under looks attractive it again simle boils down to the comeptiveness of the game. If Mem covered it certainly goes Over but as said thats a tough sell. I dont see how Utah doesnt crack 115. So really worst case is about 212 points...figure 114-98...
Thinking Utah 1st half or -12 not sure. However I am starting to like the over here in Utah. Especially if it creeps lower. Utah has scored 105,106,110 past 3 at home. Utah is putting teams on the FT line at an alarming rate!! Miami shot 45 and they shot 54!! Only 130 shots that game and 229 pts!!!Thats beyond insane. Memphis gets to the line alot and put opponents there alot....this will be the secondary key to the game...1st half over..??
> Minny @ Portland :have to ride Minny with a new coach and it seems like the players like Wittman. The total seems awfully low with Minnhy defensive effort lately
Not crazy about Wolves as road chalk but last trip to Portland ended with a buzzer beating loss. I think the total is way low but with a new coach defense could emphasised ..certainly could see 93-87 game. Previously 8 straight unders in the series including 5 in Portland.
Looking at small play on the Wolves with a new coach. Probably stay away from the total.
> Bucks @ Kings: Not sure Sac is playing good enough to lay 10 pt sto anyone even Milw. I think this one plays under though as Kings offense has been lacking ....
Bogut got into foul trouble early and they cant afford to lose him. Really hard to get involved. I cant see laying 10 with Kings as they have struggled on offense. Which while its like they score 99 or better here still make sthe under attractive...101-90?
> NJN @ GSW:tend to lean towards GS in the late one. I really like the new look Warriors and while 6 seems high they were just 5 to Sacramento so it makes sense in that manner. Kristic really played well in the last meeting and can Moore duplicate his play? You get Harrington and Jackson fresh off the but kicking they just took in NJ which lead to the deal IMO....Kidd and Carter didnt play well in the Sac game and the will wear down as NJ becomes overdependent on them... Earlier NJ trailed nearly every minute of the first 3 quarters but managed to win the fourth by 14! Tend to lean Under 206....
The wrench in my plans here is Baron Davis being gametime decision. They dont have much at PG really. Ellis and Jaskevicius(spelling?).
I think NJ will struggle to score and lean Under especially with better defensive players in GSW now. However hoping Davis plays but think regrdless I will roll with GSW..just not sire how big..
Good Luck . We will take it up tmrw...
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