Wed Discussion

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Wed 4/30

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
T. Gorzelanny</TD><TD>+1.5 -139</TD><TD>+146</TD><TD>OVER 9 +114</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>10:10 AM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>New York Mets
OL. Perez</TD><TD>-1.5 +129</TD><TD>-154</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -124</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang</TD><TD>-1.5 +151</TD><TD>-107</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:15 AM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
B. Looper</TD><TD>+1.5 -161</TD><TD>-101</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -125</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>Houston Astros
S. Chacon</TD><TD>+1.5 -132</TD><TD>+146</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>12:40 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
R. Johnson</TD><TD>-1.5 +122</TD><TD>-154</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
U. Jimenez</TD><TD>+1.5 -219</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>OVER 8 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>12:45 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
J. Sanchez</TD><TD>-1.5 +199</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
J. Jurrjens</TD><TD>-1.5 +153</TD><TD>-115</TD><TD>OVER 9 -113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>01:35 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
S. Hill</TD><TD>+1.5 -163</TD><TD>+107</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +103</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
C. Young</TD><TD>+1.5 -187</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>OVER 10 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
J. Moyer</TD><TD>-1.5 +177</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</TD><TD>-1.5 +147</TD><TD>-106</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
S. Olsen</TD><TD>+1.5 -157</TD><TD>-102</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
J. Suppan</TD><TD></TD><TD>+121</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
R. Dempster</TD><TD></TD><TD>-129</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
N. Masset</TD><TD>+1.5 -172</TD><TD>+113</TD><TD>OVER 9 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>10:10 AM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
N. Blackburn</TD><TD>-1.5 +162</TD><TD>-121</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
J. Washburn</TD><TD>+1.5 -131</TD><TD>+155</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
C. Lee</TD><TD>-1.5 +121</TD><TD>-163</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -108</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
D. McGowan</TD><TD>+1.5 -127</TD><TD>+154</TD><TD>OVER 9 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka</TD><TD>-1.5 +117</TD><TD>-162</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman</TD><TD>+1.5 -150</TD><TD>+126</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>New York Yankees
A. Pettitte</TD><TD>-1.5 +140</TD><TD>-134</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister</TD><TD>-1.5 +152</TD><TD>-113</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
K. Millwood</TD><TD>+1.5 -162</TD><TD>+105</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -120</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Wed 4/30</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
D. Eveland</TD><TD>+1.5 -160</TD><TD>+130</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>LAA Angels
E. Santana</TD><TD>-1.5 +150</TD><TD>-138</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -107</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Well I have some free time today so figured I would get this going....

Hell I played so many games yesterday I cant recall what the hell I even talked about . Lets see Yanks lost 6-4 . In alot of ways it sucked to push that total especially since I was banking on getting 10.5 runs but with the sloppiness early and like 6-2 in the b4th you cant be to pissed. Just when DETs pen is sloppy kinda irks ya at this point. Once we got to the b6th same score I knew it wasnt losing . So many totals fucked up late yesterday..this and the Mets under really hurt the most....

Really didnt watch any of it and not sure what to make of Hughes bad start. Other then I had some concern he pitched just 2 innings last week in Chi because of the rain. There's always that line of not throwing enough and maybe throwing to much you look for. He just seems to get in jams and cant work his way out. Great job by the Yankee pen . Nice to see Ohlendorf bounce back would like to se if he was closing up his front shoulder. So many roster moves I wasnt even sure Edwar Ramirez was on the team but I love his stuff. His only issue last year was when he came in MOB its when he seemed to struggle the most and the stats actually back that up...So again we taxed our pen and we didnt have a day off . This Yanks lineup is weak and now thats it Derek Jeter's team again interesting to see if he can carry the team. The 3 doubles and triples with ZERO Hrs is a concern. He looks a step behind at the plate IMO. This is gonna be a real interesting stretch for us...

The Philles game went alot like I thought it would . Maddux was solid and both SP allowed an extra run late when the pens couldnt save them. Tough over for the under backers but as I commented yesterday kinda strange they hung a 9 up there with SD offense struggles...

Anyway for me great day on sides but terrible for the most part on totals. I read alot into how lines are set and really liked the A's over and even more when I saw the home plate ump and the push to 9 runs...anyway it was never close 2-0 pitchers duel....

Onto Wed and DAY games....:shake:
 
Day starts...

Right now will I am not excited about Oliver Perez's pitching real tough to back Pitt vs a LH SP or with Gorzelanny throwing . Since opeing camp with a sore shoulder he hasnt looked right and has battled inconsistency . His own words..

“I couldn’t find the zone. I don’t know what it is,” said Gorzelanny, who is 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. “I’m not happy with what’s going on.”

1-5 away vs LHP and that lone win was opening day and gift 12-11 as they didnt hit Glavine much. He left after 5 leading 4-2 and something like 15 runs scored after the 8th inning started.

5 Inn 7 H 2 R 1 Er 2bb 3K

Lose 5-4 and 7-3 @ Florida to Olsen ( 6Inn 7 H 4 ER 2BB 5 K)and Hendrickson (5.1 5 H 3R 1 ER 3BB 4 K).

Lose 11-2 @ Cincy but more thanks To Matt Morris . Kuo went 4 innings allowing 2H 1 Er 1bb 6K.

Lose 3-2 @ Chi vs Hill. Again very medicore start 5in 3H 1 Er 3bb 4K

Yesterday lose 5-4 @ Johan Santana. Again 5.2 inn 2 H 2 Er 3BB 7 K . Lucky for them they had 2 hits both solo Hrs and the pen in the 6th got out of jam for NYbefore later blowing the win ...

At home they are 0-3 but more due to there pitching . Lily was struggling couldnt complete 4 innings allowed 5 runs and 7 hits , Hill lasted just 3 innings allowing 3 hits and earned runs , Hendrickson went 8 Inn 8 h 4r 3earned ...two of the home games the Pitt starter was Matt Morris...

So they are 1-8 vs LHP so far however its been a combination of terrible SP and poor clutch hitting that seems to have them struggling. They made Johan work yesterday throwing 112 pitches and judging by the fact most opposing LH SP didnt really make it past 6 innings they probably all labored.

Pitts biggest offense issue is there lineup struggling after the 5th spot as they get next nothing from 6 to 8 in the order right now. When they see a LH McLouth and Nady have very solid splits as does Doumit n limited atbats. Everyone else funk ! 16-88 1 Hr 4 RBI bewteen Bay , Sanchez , Bautista and LaRoche 11bb 25K...that leaves whoever plays SS Gomez , Rivas , Bixler 8-42 6rbi 1bb 8 K between that bunch vs LHP. Paulino if he catches 4-17. There is hope I guess as Paulino did hit 407 5hr 17 rbi vs LH last year (339 in 2006), Sanchez hit 364 4Hr 20 RBI ( and 442 in 129abs in 2006) but Jack Wilsons absence hurts when he hits 320 with 6Hrs and 18 RBI. Even LHB LaRoche hit 299 with 30 RBI so there is alot of underperforming going on .

Still right now they arent producing. Gorzelanny outisde of his Cubbie starts has been manageable. Those Cubbie spanked him for 12hits , 14 runs in 5 innings and 8 BB 5K...And he does have good day splits for his career if we exclude his 2 Cub starts this season

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>92.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>80</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>33</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>56</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.225</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>




</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
With Hudson calling balls and strikes though( 5-1 road team and 21-12 last year) and NYM pen maybe a bit thin since they have now gone 5 straight games without a SP completing 6 innings , coupled with Pitts ability to seemingly chase LH SP fairly early especially considering there record against it might make Pitt look attractive here.Kinda crazy to see Hudson as the anti home fav ump but he is favs above -120 Lyr were 4-14 , in 2006 14-10 , 10-7 in 2005. Another plus for Pitt is the fact NYM has a few LHP in there lineups and that is a strong point for there LHP. You could say he has struggled vs NY in the past but only Reyes and Wright have done something vs him and 4-11 is hardly a big sample as Beltran , Delgado and Church are 1-8 combined so 5-19 in limited abs?? Who cares ...the bigest question is Gorzelanny healthy ? So hard to tell but I will watch him today. Outside of Cubbies 3 starts 17.2 Inn 12 H 7 er 14 BB 8K.

On the flip side you have Oliver Perez vs the team that traded and him but also sort of gave up on him . Perez was originally a POD who came over with Jason Bay in the Giles deal. So after losing his 1st start vs them last year I would think in his second opportunity he would like to get a win vs them but just as importantly pitch well. Last year he lost allowing 5 UNearned runs. Crazy thing is I dont recall such a solid SP especially stats wise allow 20 UNearned runs like he did in 2007 ( 20 of 90 were UNearned). That really makes your ERA useless when your basically allowing 0.75 MORE runs per start. In terms of playing totals I mean. In his career he seems to be very inconsistent but always seemingly good in May and July or every other month.

So Perez tough guy to get a handle on .last year for the most part he was real dependable at home until a start in August vs ATL where after that he seemed to struggle @ Shea. In his 1st 11 starts he went 6 innings or better in 9 well 8 cause 5 2/3in one start I counted as 6 inn) in of them always allowing 3 runs or less. In the two he didnt one time he was chased because of 7 walks in 2.2 inn and the other he allowed 4 uns in 5.2innings.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Date</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opponent</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Dec</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jul 26</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>PIT</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 4-8</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>114.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.84</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jul 20</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ LAD</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 4-1</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>108.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.00</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jul 15</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>CIN</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 5-2</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>100.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Date</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opponent</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Dec</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jun 26</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>STL</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 3-5</TD><TD class=yspscores>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>94.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jun 20</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>MIN</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 2-6</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>88.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jun 15</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ NYY</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 2-0</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>83.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.93</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jun 9</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ DET</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 7-8</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>75.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Jun 3</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>ARI</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 1-4</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>70.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.80</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Date</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opponent</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Dec</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 29</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>SFO</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 5-4</TD><TD class=yspscores>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>63.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.69</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 23</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ ATL</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 3-0</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>56.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.54</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 18</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>NYY</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 3-2</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>49.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.90</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 13</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>MIL</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 9-1</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>42.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.00</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 7</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ SFO</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 4-9</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>33.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.48</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> May 2</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>FLA</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 6-3</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>29.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.41</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Date</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opponent</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Dec</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 27</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ WAS</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 3-4</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>23.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.86</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 21</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>ATL</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 7-2</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.31</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 11</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>PHI</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>L 2-5</TD><TD class=yspscores>L</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.72</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left> Apr 6</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>@ ATL</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>W 11-1</TD><TD class=yspscores>W</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.29</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

68.2 INN 50 H 30 R 23 ER 29 BB 69K 8 Hrs home starts until August(.195BAA 1.15 WHIP) ...in some ways that 2.84 is misleading since he allowed 5 runs that day his ERA balloned to 3.56 by the end of the year. He pitched 6 more times at home but was real good in two and pretty bad in the other 4. Really dont see much of a difference bewteen night and day splits with him and because of his last 6 home starts his overall home numbers werent as good at home.

This year he hasnt been good and with the bullpen possible fatigued its nice to hear him comment about wanting to go deeper in games. In 5 starts for the most part he has lived on the edge. He managed to not be unscored upon in 3 of them . 17.2 Inn 12 H 9BB 17 K . His recent start vs Wash he was unscored upon again through 5 but the suddenly improving Nats "tagged" him in the 5th and 6th innings. Thing is @ Wash he didnt actual pitch that bad. We go B5th Mets lead 3-0 to that point 2 singles and 2 walks which happened to come with in a 3batter span in the third. Anyway he walks Willie Harris (161avg)to start bad for 3 reasons weak hitter , leadoff the inning with a walk usually scores and the guy has speed, Wil Nieves singles ( the exYank who was 10-71 past few years for us but had a couple good games this year still weak) , Belliard(.214) PH walk , then Lopez singles in 2 runs and the last run scores on a Zimmerman groundout. Are these the guys in Wash lineup that should be beating you especially atalent like Perez?? Clearly not. The worst part is the sixth inning leadoff singles by Pena and Boone which isnt that bad as they hit LHP well anyway gets 2 out then they pull him. Heilman comes in walks Milledge to load them and then serves up a GRAND SLAM ! Lopez no less again and he has 6 RBI that day !

So bottomline he wasnt sharp but he actually wasnt hit that hard at all. Only the Brewers hit him and I basically give LHP a pass when facing MILW since they have started the year smoking LH in large part to Gabe Kapler. They beat Johan Santana and Cole Hamels already enuff said. Pitt in limited atbats 3-16 vs him and 3-19 if Paulino plays over Doumit who could start at 1st I guess...Other positives for Perez only 1 HR allowed so far this season just 5 in 10 day starts last year..

Even after yesterday mets pen still alowed just 14 runs , 10 earned in nearly 52 innings. Plus for the Pitt pen as bad as was on the road really it was mostly the 1st two game sof the year and then series @ Wrigley which was caused by the SP not goingdeep and seemingly logging alot of innings on that trip...which is happening to NY since the past 9 games I think only Johan Santana cleared 6 innings..witha day off Pitt pen had 2 days off basically thanks to Maholm on Sunday but Morris release pushed Dumtrait into the rotation as well. Everyone should be available an dlook for Capps to get some work with 4 days off already. Another plus for Gorzelanny is the extra day off his career stats improve with more rest. His record and ERA really dont but 263 BAA vs 278 on normal rest but his command was much better as well 1.29 WHIP vs 1.76 WHIP huge difference..he also went up to avg 6.2 on longer rest from 6 inn...the starts are similiar as well 19 on normal vs 12 on extended..

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>4.24</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>17.0</TD><TD align=left>15</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>.254</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>3.63</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>39.2</TD><TD align=left>29</TD><TD align=left>18</TD><TD align=left>16</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>20</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>25</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.206</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3.77</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>117.0</TD><TD align=right>129</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>42</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>77</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.278</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>4.07</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>79.2</TD><TD align=right>78</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>54</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.263</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In general NYM hasnt hit much this year especially at home. They have played 13 games at home and 11 of those have totaled 9 runs or less (9-7 and 8-2 the others) . In 8 of 13 they have allowed 3runs or less the others...4, 5 (twice) 6 ,9 runs... they have hit 243 at home and when they oppose LHP have pitched best allowing just 2.7 runs in 10 games which they are 8-2...1-8 vs LHP against 8-2 vs LHP...


So all this and I couldnt tell you if anything looks good in the matchup. I do like the UNDER 9 but why is this total getting bet up so hard ? Also while I have no data to support this its just something I noticed along , long time ago and thats when 2 LHP oppose eachother the games tend to play UNDER but w/o statistical data to back it up its just a guess....some interest in Pitt +1.5 RL -140 based on the fact runs could ve scarce...last year Perez won 5 of his 1st 6 at home but then went just 4-7 the rest of the way and has lost both starts at home in 2008...so NYM have won just 4 of his last 13 starts @ Shea...

When NY opposed a LH at home ..
beat Parra 4-2 ...(Figuerora)
lost to Moyer 5-2 ( Perez)
beat Nats 6-0 Perez (Figuerora ) , 5-2 Chico (Maine) , 3-2 Lannan (Pelfrey)

On a shorter note ...loking at Harang and the Under...somewhat more because when I saw the series price on Monday I suspected Cincy might win this series but then again Cincy had the bigger names starting as well...under because Harang has been so solid especially his day starts , Looper in 2007 and even 2006 as a reliever had ridiculous day splits ...though his start at home vs SF was awful but I kinda felt that one coming remember fading him hard that day...before this year a great UNDER trend @ home with 8 and 8.5 totals 39-16 UNDER but its reversed to 6-2 over this year.....Reds really only scored more then 4 runs in 4 of the past 14 games and exactly 4 runs in 2 others...big outputs 8 vs struggling Ted Lilly , 9 when Kuo opposed them a converted reliever ,10 when Correia left with an injury early and the pen got stretched out ,10 when Zito was plastered the day after and sent to the pen...so basically they havent hit good pitching in those big games and 3 were vs LHP ... Resd are 262 vs RP with 4.2 runs scored , day games 4.5 runs but only 228 avg and 3.7 runs per in theer division with a 5-11 record...Looper did beat Arroyo and CIncy twice at home 5-2 and 3-2..The PENS seem in decent shape although I worry about STL lately ...though McClellans emergence with Franklin really soldifies the middle...

Jim Wolf calling strikes has a 5-1 over record but at look at the SP in his games coupled with the totals assigned and I see why. Looper pitched fine with im vs Wash 6 inn 3 h 1 run at home but Russ Springer allwoing 3 runs in relief pushed it over...

Looking at the Cards at home this year with 8 and 8.5 totals ( 7 of the 8 were 8.5 totals) onething sticks out 5-4 games ! Three of the 8.5's that went at over home were 5-4 and yesterdays was 7-2 so that accounts for 6 of them . The others were 8-3 wins and 8-2 loss one of which was Loopers rough outing vs Sanchez and SFG...the 8-3 game again bullpen..4-1 after 5inn and 4-3 b8th when 4 were scored to widen the lead..the Looper game he allowed 7 in 3 innings the other guys 15 innings and 3 runs....

Anyway I think 8 is sort of what the total should be making 8.5 value IMO..to bad its 8 now...big difference...

Seems like beautiful weather today which makes me think OVERS but then again the pitchers might be the happiest after the recent cold spell.....

Phillips is heating up for Cincy along with Encarnacion otherwise not much else but I am sure there are those happy to see Dunn go yard even down 7-0 top 9th 2 out....and really most Cards seem to hitting well of late with Pujols leading the way..seems like everyone in STL is above the 280 mark past week...which I guess makes it hard to actually fade them...maybe Reds +1.5 but thats gotta be crazy expensive..Looper 18 inn at home 10 hits 2 runs excluding the SFG fiasco...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Home</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>94.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>83</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>36</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>35</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>44</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.236</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Away</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>80.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>100</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>64</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>61</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>43</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.81</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.59</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.304</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> </TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Day</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>64.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>45</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.82</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.96</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.198</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Night</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>110.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>138</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>87</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>83</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>55</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.75</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.55</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.304</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As you can see in 2007 completely different SP when at home or starting the day. I would guess the majority of his day starts happened to be at home... hard to pay to fade that stuff...

Dunn , Junior , Phillips and Encarnacion were 0-23 vs him last year , Hatteberg 2-5 , keppinger 1-3 and Ross 0-5 also just 1 walk to this group. That foursome is 6-40 career against him with Dunn hitting 2 bombs and Junior 3-12 , Ross 1-9 , Bako 1-4 solo Hr , Patterson 2-6 , Hatteberg 2-7 , Freel 3-8 if he plays...

Outside of the Wrigley wind game Harang has not allowed more then 2 runs and only opening day when eh went 6 failed to go at least 7 and in the past 5 has come out for the 8thinning 3 times. Stil he is just 1-3 on the season. He has been solid against LHB and for as good as he pitched vs RHB 207 BAA he has allowed 5 Hrs to them..(again take the Wrigley game into account). Looper a guy who is better on normal rest while Harang has shown a preference to that extra day but in the past year that has narrowed just like he has overcome his day issues this season. He really was just as good at home as he was away last year his weakness being day starts where he muct have had a handful of terrible ones to skew his numbers...Think past 2 years STL lineup is only 12-56 against him assuming Ryan plays SS today and Kennedy 2ndb...with a few guys really not seeing him ....

Basically Iguess looking at both NL unders at this point...I cant take Cincy looking at the Cards having a tougher lineup probably and Loopers splits ...if Looper was -130 I could see value but not when Harang is basically -120...the flip is Harang pitching so well he has to win or get hit hard....

Hope this is helpful in making a decision tough calls early but Good Luck all and please feel free to discuss and I have no problem with anyone disagreeing or being opposite. When I have a STRONG feeling on something I think you guys tend to know...

Just starting to look at the AL game but spot starter tends to mean what can the bullpen do for 3 innings maybe 4 ?? So looking more at Minny cause WSox not hitting much....

Be Back.....again GL !:shake::cheers:
 
Wind: From the Northwest at 22 MPH

This at Shea listed on Scoresandodds.com matchups. Gonna listen to the pregame because I have no idea if this means blowing in or out...think its about 55 degrees here the suns out but we have that cool crisp air feel...
 
WS at Minn is a very confusing game. So much that I wound up playing Minn pick minus 22 cents first 5 and WS plus 26 cents for game. Appointment in 10 minutes gl.
 
SportsNut said:
Wind: From the Northwest at 22 MPH

This at Shea listed on Scoresandodds.com matchups. Gonna listen to the pregame because I have no idea if this means blowing in or out...think its about 55 degrees here the suns out but we have that cool crisp air feel...
Click to expand...

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb/gameforecast/11368?eventid=242913

blowing out to right field at 11mph to 15mph, now with gusts blowing shit to the moon at about 30mph.

http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USNY0996?from=hrly_topnav_undeclared
 
Interesting thing I see well 1st Konerko and AJ get the day off which means Toby Hall catches ( Swisher to 1st and Anderson to CF) .

Anyway Hall caught 5games so far .

W 5-3
L 2-5
W 4-1
L5-0
L5-1

All low scoring...

WSox are 9-1 in day games so far allowing just 2.5 runs OR 25 runs in 10 games !! Granted the offensive production increases to 258 avg still medicore but 6.4 runs per game..However 2 big bats out of the lineup and another returning after a 4 gams OUT in Dye (came back yesterday I think)....

Pens WSox 2.41 ERA away and Twins 1.69 at home which also Minny got a "pen" break with Boonser pitching well yesterday

Masset HORRIFIC career splits vs Minny but there has been some turnover in the lineup past few years and he is a young guy who maybe had to take one for the team in a route.

WSox day splits..
Dye 389 2Hrs 7 RBI ( again doeshe need a few games to get back in the groove though??)
Quentin .368 3 Hrs 10 RBI
Thome 300 3Hr 9 RBI (14K in 40ab)
Crede 231 3Hr 11 Rbi
Uribe 200 2Hr 4 RBI
Swisher 167 1 RBI
Cabrera 163 1Hr 1 RBI
Anderson & Hall 4/21 .190 1 RBI

So we can see the WSOX losing Konerko and AJ lose alot. Konerko 289 3Hr 12 Rbi and A.J. 316 1Hr 9 RBI...

So Dye is a big factor here as he went 0-4 with 2K's in his return yesterday but Boonser was dealing......also only 247 career hitter vs Minny with 310 OBP and 719 OPS...

White Sox offense is LOTS of WALKS , LOTS of K's and LOTS of HRS!

take away Chicago using Buerhle in game 2 of the year on long rest just to face Cle and they have allowed ONLY 23 runs in 107.1 day innings...1.93 ERA ...Masset himself 5 .1 inn just 3 hits and no runs in day appearances...Logan , Jenks , Thornton 15.1 day innings 10 hits 1 run 4bbks...Linebrink solid 7 inn 3 runs...only weak link Dotel...6 runs and 4 earned in 4.2Inn...Clearly much better then 2007 but what isnt about there staff and 2004 they had solid numbers...

4 straight unders at home vs Minny after a couple of overs vs TB (2-0 over) and 4-2-1 Under streak to start the year.....insane in 13 games they scored 6 runs (twice ) and 4 runs (twice) otherwise less then 3 athome...in 9 others !! Including 5 straight at home and 6 of 7...Twins just 3-6 in day games scoring 2.6 runs (2.8 at home) and 3.7 vs RHP...lineup has 20 RBI in day games and Morneau has 3hr and 10 of those 20 Rbi...and happens to be 4-5 1Hr and 7 Rbi against Masset.....

Blackburn just 1 run allowed at home in 2 starts and 2 runs in 12.2 innings in the day...5 runs and 12 hits in 17 day innings from there 4 core relievers....some tough road assignments..which outside of 1 bad inning at det with a5-0 lead and the gasoline pen plus one bad one @ texas he has been real solid...faced WSox in Chi 5 inn 7 h 2 runs which is okay...short samples but home and turf seem to do well for him...

probaly playing UNDER 9 and maybe Minny here:cheers:
















 
Thanks Tuck and Red. Good stuff...

Now Red how bout the theory that for the 1st 5 innings at least it shouldnt matter much with 2 LH SP ?? Might just play 1st 5 innings UNDER...crazy delay because of a water main break ...another 10 minutes or so ...:cheers:
 
Looking at the over @ Arizona...

one thing stands out for sure Wally Bell likes his home chalk..
3-1 so far
only 15-11 last year home favs
21-6 home favs in 2006
20-4 home favs in 2005

57-22 for home chalk...

Astros are 15-36 in their last 51 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.
Diamondbacks are 21-6 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.

Still cant like either side much..great points for fading Houston based on trends but not loving RJ vs Houston middle of the order ..Chacon despite his terrible splits vs Zona was good in 3 starts in 05 at thatpark clearly a different lineup though but then again he still lost all 3...Chacon is just one of the guys whohelps his team hang around but doesnt help them win ...ANthony Young of this decade...

-
Clearly the Mutts are done ..7-0 b2nd and allowd just 3 hits....we might see 20 runs on 10 hits today....kicking myself for passing on Pitt +1.5 RL...

Also @ SF hard to pass on SFG and Sanchez plus looking at the over...want to see some lineups before I really worry much about these 3:40 games.....BOL:cheers:
 
Think I totally flipped on the SF-COL game. Big game for both as SF starts a road trip after this and Col gets a much needed day off as there last one was 4-14. I think a win and some fresh blood brings some positives to the park.

As good as Sanchez has been COL is a tough test with some quality RH hitters especially Holliday , Atkins but even Spillboroghs is against LHP Sanchez success has come largely from taking away all hope for LHB..3 / 27 oBBs and 13 KS 115 BAA. Only Helton is LH and he is a solid bat who can at least work the count vs Sanchez IMO...Sanchez for as good as he has been curious to see how he bounces back after a 8 inning start but also he went 6 innings or better just twice in 5 outings so far. If thats the case the SFG pen has been used alot lately and even the last 2 days plus the end of the Cincy series so they could be taxed.

Morales has had more success in the day and has only been terrible his last start. Like hi spower stuff vs a weak hitting lineup as long as he can throw strikes. SFG has scored 4 runs or more just 4 of the past 14 games...most of there wins have been sutouts but always 2 runs or less. Molina sits leaving Rowand who hit well the past 2 days but a power pitcher is a toughe task for him IMO then a LHP and a ciontact SP liek Cook...

also like 1st 5 under as SFG pen concerns more then COL...:cheers:
 
Started the day 2-1 ..Twins win , Under 9 Twins wins and just officially lost the Mets under 9 . Little pissed I laid off Pirates +1.5 RL as I tried to get it but just after waiting so long went OTB and under 8 @ Cincy could actually hit but I dont regret passing that ...

Have COL ML {2units} and Under 4 1st 5 Inn SFG {1u} and Over 9.5 Houston +105 to which its already 4-0 Houston top 5.....

Be beack shortly with some thoughts onATL and Washington..:cheers:
 
@ Washington 4:35PM

- First note is Cordero heads back to the DL.

- More importantly is that Washington has now WON 5 of 7 . The losses were against STUDS Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano. Otherwise they are doing enoiugh to beat the mid tier SP of late after a terrible start to the season. Also Braves have lost 3 straight and 5 of 7 games defeating only Pelfrey and Badenhop. Quite the opposite of what Washington is doing..H2H so far Wash is 4-3

-Jurrjens has impressed us all so far. I think we all like his grit and toughness rarely seen in a youngster especially one who doesnt come with the media spotlight. I dont like the fact he is walking more and more guys whuich is leading to a higher pitch count. Especially with ATL staff so banged up and there pen unreliable at this point. L3 outings 107 , 114 ,100 to work 6 inn , 7 in and 6 inn...onlygoing 6 leaves 3 innings of work for the pen...

"This is about the seventh or eighth game you're about to pull your hair out after," said Jones, who has hit three of his homers against the Nationals. "We are not swinging the bats well, we're not executing on offense. We're not hitting behind runners, getting runners in from third with less than two outs. We're not making the big pitch when we really need to."

Both teams are really unfamiliar with the SP. True Wash has never seen Jurrjens but most teams havent and Hill while he made 2 starts vs ATL in his career most guys have about 3 atbtas vs him.

Jurrjens has made 3 away starts and the numbers are solid for sure. However his team lost 2 of the 3 . They won @ Shea vs Pelfrey when he was about even money , they lost @ Fla vs Olson when he was favored by 115 and lost @ Col facing Jimenez catching +105 to 110. So how is he -130 here ? The Braves arent playing well and have pitching issues. They have scored 3 runs each past 3 games. If they Braves were slight favs with Glavine last night and will say Jurrjens is at least as good or even slightily better then Glavine there is still the fact that Shawn Hill is at worst slightily better then Redding at this point. All things aside a healthy Hill is much better then Redding IMO. Clearly Hill is still building arm strength and stamina at this point tiring in the 6th inning his 1st time out and lasting just 5 vs NYM at home. There is no denying Hill hasnt been his sharpest but he gets and extra days rest here as well while facing a slumping offense regardless of the names in there lineup...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4.13</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>48.0</TD><TD align=right>42</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>28</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.233</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2.64</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>44.1</TD><TD align=right>39</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.234</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last year that extra day was a huge plus. His BAA didnt really change but he appears to have had better command looking at the lower walk ratio and higher K ratio. Plus his ERA went down and he lasted longer...So I think he can give a solid 6 maybe 6 + innings here...2runs or less type solid..

Braves 4-10 away so far this season and 1-5 as chalk. While Nats are 6-7 at home and 4-0 a small dogs. There offense is improving but still inconsistent scoring 5 or better in 6 of the past 12 games..Also Nats are 39-27 L2+ years as small home dogs and 60-42 at home when the total is set at 9 or 9.5

Granted ATL has hit 293 in day games and 280 vs RHP but they are in a funk now and I cant weigh those heavily just like Wash early deep slump doesnt mean as much...last year RHB were only 189 against him...

So still looking at a few things but gonna play Wash interested in them +1.5 RL and maybe under...:cheers:
 
Got tied up for awhile...looking at the late game now...

Disappointed that while I flipped off SFG for COL the game went much like I expected except COL couldnt get many key hits and they couldnt hold a 2-1 lead but Jimenez was better then Sanchez...lost only like a 1/2 unit but feels like a game I should I have cleaned up on...

Same deal in Wash 1st 5 inn under was a winner easy but naturally a small play. In some ways tough to lose if u had ATL when they had a 2-1 lead but how the hell did Wash blow it in the 11th ? Basically I didnt like ATLs pen and thats what lost both SP were better then expected. Like Chipper said Braves just cant do no right ! Why the hell was Acosta starting the 12th anyway...?

Lots of shit pending and I will say its safe to say I lostthe 1st 5 inn over @ Boston.....

BOL all..cubbies raking early wish I had them !:cheers:
 
The game out in LAA just looks to easy to take LAA . Santana has been real good so far and his stats vs OAK are off the charts..

The interesting part about Ervin Santana vs OAK is the fact he always faced them afetr July...for 3 years ! 9 career starts vs them and 8 UNDERS his last being teh 1st OVA....

Santana is 3-0-2 UNDER this year and Eveland 5-0 UNDER...so why open this at 9 ? Just seems like they want under money and I could see Eveland getting hit here seeing as he was so-so his road outings @ WSox and Seatttle lineups who are above avg vs LHP IMO like LAA is.....the middle relief part of LAA pen is weak...

Over 8.5 and 1st 5 Inn.....
 
agree that eveland will probably get hit. Lot of bat speed in that lineup. I however believe that if Irvin can go 7 and it goes to Speier, the bullpen is set for a Shields then K-rod knockout. O'day and Oliver are the questionable ones. If you can avoid them, angels should win a tight game.
 
and yeah, at that price, I see a lot of value in the A's RL... These two teams historically play close... but with all the new guys on the A's, who knows if they give a shit about the rivalry.. gl sn!
 
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