Washington Vs. Michigan - National Championship - Discussion

I get all the Michigan love...but it seems 4.5 with a team that can throw you to death has a backdoor left wide open. I could definitely see a 31-28 game. Michigan line play and how DeBoer approaches it will be the key. But AA just has dudes...def should be the favorite. Just a fishy number it seems.

And Michigan faced no great QB until yesterday and you could even question how great Milroe is...but he was by far the best on their schedule. McCord had a higher QBR but if he didn't have MHJ, he'd have been average at best.

I don't know....just trying to find reasons to not fall in love with Michigan right off the bat. Maybe I'm overthinking this though.
 
Penix so good at avoiding pressure. Seems to never take sacks. Can Michigan get home? They got home with ease against Bama....
 
Barring -2 turnovers or worse and barring the same officials doing the Washington game again, I would say this should be a walk in the park.

Even against the Texas secondary, while they torched them with those long plays they weren't exactly wide open. I doubt the Washington QB ( who is great) can repeat that level of precision again.

Unfortunate with how well Texas matched up with Michigan that we won't have a better championship game. DD win for Wolverines.

McCarthy played awful, Penix (sp?) played like Warren Moon or K Warner in their prime. Washington still needed crazy turnovers and the most suspect officiating in a CFP game in history, along with bad play calling at the 10 yard line at the end from Texas to pull that off and Michigan matches up WAY better against Washington than Texas did.

I suppose McCarthy could suck again.

I thought the Olineman out for Michigan hurt them too in yesterdays game and it may again.
 
Washington +4 all day long as Michigan was pretty lucky to escape Alabama. UM celebrating a win against one of the weakest Bama teams of the last 5-10 years. UW stops Blake and it's over. Forcing JJ to throw 30+ pass attempts will result in a disaster as he's grossly overrated IMO. Anyone can look like a stud throwing the ball 15 times a game of which 70% of them are short/screen passes.
 
CryptoWhale said:
Washington +4 all day long as Michigan was pretty lucky to escape Alabama. UM celebrating a win against one of the weakest Bama teams of the last 5-10 years. UW stops Blake and it's over. Forcing JJ to throw 30+ pass attempts will result in a disaster as he's grossly overrated IMO. Anyone can look like a stud throwing the ball 15 times a game of which 70% of them are short/screen passes.
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UW has no pass rush and a subpar rush defense. There’s no reason to think they can simply take the running game away.

VK makes some great points. The main being Pennix couldn’t have been anymore accurate, and he’s facing a superior secondary to Texas, and if UM doesn’t gift away two scoring drives the game shouldn’t be close.

I just find it hard to sustain long drives if there’s nothing over the top and deep with zero threat of a run.
 
scarf31 said:
I get all the Michigan love...but it seems 4.5 with a team that can throw you to death has a backdoor left wide open. I could definitely see a 31-28 game. Michigan line play and how DeBoer approaches it will be the key. But AA just has dudes...def should be the favorite. Just a fishy number it seems.

And Michigan faced no great QB until yesterday and you could even question how great Milroe is...but he was by far the best on their schedule. McCord had a higher QBR but if he didn't have MHJ, he'd have been average at best.

I don't know....just trying to find reasons to not fall in love with Michigan right off the bat. Maybe I'm overthinking this though.
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Back door worried me for sure. Could be up 17 early 4q and lose the bet.
 
Inspekdah said:
UW has no pass rush and a subpar rush defense. There’s no reason to think they can simply take the running game away.

VK makes some great points. The main being Pennix couldn’t have been anymore accurate, and he’s facing a superior secondary to Texas, and if UM doesn’t gift away two scoring drives the game shouldn’t be close.

I just find it hard to sustain long drives if there’s nothing over the top and deep with zero threat of a run.
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Michigan and Horns secondary are not in the same zip code. And as we talked Horns have no pass rush.

Will be a different look for Penix, in multiple respects, with UM.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Michigan and Horns secondary are not in the same zip code. And as we talked Horns have no pass rush.

Will be a different look for Penix, in multiple respects, with UM.
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Might have been mentioned already but I was surprised to hear Penix talk about how predictable the Horns defense was.
 
It is fair to say that Michigan has not faced a passing game like UW's...but few have in reality. Fair to say UW is a top 3 passing team in the nation? I think so. And the best pass defense they've seen all year was probably Oregon or Texas?

Oregon I think is in the 20-30 rank range. Fair to say UW will have success vs. Michigan and putting up 24 feels like the right range based on past results. Boils down to if we think Michigan offense can be 30+ with relative ease...
 
rambler882 said:
It is fair to say that Michigan has not faced a passing game like UW's...but few have in reality. Fair to say UW is a top 3 passing team in the nation? I think so. And the best pass defense they've seen all year was probably Oregon or Texas?

Oregon I think is in the 20-30 rank range. Fair to say UW will have success vs. Michigan and putting up 24 feels like the right range based on past results. Boils down to if we think Michigan offense can be 30+ with relative ease...
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I’m more of an eyes guy and what I saw vs the Bama deep bowl is all I needed to see. Texas secondary isn’t close to UM. And I think both Texas and Oregon were better 3 times and should have won all of those games. I suppose UM could have critical turnover.
 
UW Dogs again! 4 of last 5 games now Including this game) and a perfect 3-0 in those dog games.

Are national championship teams (winners) suppose to brink chalk ?

+9 against Oregon! +9 winner ! National championship teams +9 heading into a national title game not even the championship.

Only +4.5 now why? Its either fishy or what I think is its a mismatch Michigan victory. UW met their match and lose!

Good run for this cash cow but not this game.
 
Played Wash ML live and split Mich -3 Live and Bama tt Over 21.5. Duboer is a great coach IMO but he should apologize for the completely stupid clock mgt at end of game. Nobody is even talking about throwing the incomplete pass on 3rd goal from 9 before kick last fg (they ran for no yards on 1st and 2nd to eat clock). If they run on 3rd or Penix just takes an inbounds sack they make Texas use 2nd TO. As for last Wash series, I didn't know that injury rule that saved Texas 30 seconds but he should have - and should have just taken a knee all 3 snaps. So game should have been over, or at minimum they punt Texas way back with like 20 seconds left. Again, totally idiotic coaching from a usually great coach.

As for this game, would be no bet if regular season. That being said, Michigan hasn't seen an offense and QB like this - McCord is below average and Milroe is average passer at best. To me, it's all about whether Michigan can put pressure on Penix. if not, he'll do real well. on other side if Michigan quits fiddle farting around on offense they should score alot on that Wash D. So coinflip for me.

PS I actually found myself rooting for Texas at end (at expense of my ML bet) just because Wash clock mgt was so piss poor.
 
Inspekdah said:
I’m more of an eyes guy and what I saw vs the Bama deep bowl is all I needed to see. Texas secondary isn’t close to UM. And I think both Texas and Oregon were better 3 times and should have won all of those games. I suppose UM could have critical turnover.
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You think Texas should of beat Washington and Oregon in pac championship ?
 
EL CAPO said:
You think Texas should of beat Washington and Oregon in pac championship ?
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Oregon blew the game twice vs UW this year and Texas gifted the game away with 2 fumbles when UW was trying to give the game away yesterday. Haven’t been a fan of UW 2h all season but they’ve gotten by.
 
rambler882 said:
It is fair to say that Michigan has not faced a passing game like UW's...but few have in reality. Fair to say UW is a top 3 passing team in the nation? I think so. And the best pass defense they've seen all year was probably Oregon or Texas?

Oregon I think is in the 20-30 rank range. Fair to say UW will have success vs. Michigan and putting up 24 feels like the right range based on past results. Boils down to if we think Michigan offense can be 30+ with relative ease...
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I'm ready to walk right back into looking like a Michigan non believer.

Contrast of styles. What's more reliable the run game advantage or the elite pass game advantage. To me the largest delta in any matchup in the game is the explosive play ability. I think Washington has had more comparable tests vs the run then Michigan has tests vs the pass. The game prep on a week vs a month is a factor too.

Elite QBs and explosive plays has been what has won this game. Usually higher scoring.
 
Inspekdah said:
Oregon blew the game twice vs UW this year and Texas gifted the game away with 2 fumbles when UW was trying to give the game away yesterday. Haven’t been a fan of UW 2h all season but they’ve gotten by.
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I saw that differently....thought they controlled the Texas game and were superior....they out physicalled Oregon the second meeting that is what made me a believer. First game Oregon out physicalled them.

I think the lull in the middle of season should almost be thrown out....almost losing to Stanford type teams is not indicative of a team that beat Oregon and Texas. No idea what happened middle of season...no one believed. They got several starters back on d for Oregon and best wide receiver
 
Washington sack rate is 130th in country. If you can't rush the Michigan QB it's gonna be a loooong day.

Washington D is 82nd in yard per rush allowed, if you can't bottle up Michigan in the run game it's going to be an even looooooooooonger day.


Michigan will win the LOS much like they did in the Rose imo...but not as confident as I was in the Rose Bowl because of the Washngton pace/tempo on offense.

If you're looking for props, JJ pass over and Blake Corum rush over should be solid money.

People keep fading Michigan..been going on a over a month now. Money keeps burning.

People stubbornly do not like them because of a few things....Harbaugh/sign stealing bs/offense is old school/just because it's Michigan.

AND I LOVE IT
 
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EL CAPO said:
I'm ready to walk right back into looking like a Michigan non believer.

Contrast of styles. What's more reliable the run game advantage or the elite pass game advantage. To me the largest delta in any matchup in the game is the explosive play ability. I think Washington has had more comparable tests vs the run then Michigan has tests vs the pass. The game prep on a week vs a month is a factor too.

Elite QBs and explosive plays has been what has won this game. Usually higher scoring.
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That is accurate in general but certainly can point to the elite qb losing in games. Stroud vs bennett last year? Eli manning vs brady lol

My point is more what was the best each team faced in pass def and pass attack… to me neither has faced anything close to each other so its hard to know what to expect. Penix quick release should neutralize pass rush a bit. But i dont think the explosive plays will be there as much if at all bc there is no real run game to speak of.

Flip side, mich can run and has the ability to pass. UM has a better chance at controlling the game in total… but anything can happen in a game, its why they play. Cough TCU
 
Agree with the above. First thought was Michigan but definitely concerned about their lack of facing a good passing team all season. Legit concern about back door being open in this one.
 
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