rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
What about UW not facing a great pass defense…
Washington Vs. Michigan - National Championship - Discussion
- Thread starter Frank Costanza
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Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Heard a good analysis as how Michigan bottled up Stroud with all of those weapons last couple of years. And again Alabama isn’t Pennix but they’re just as good with the deep ball and not one even looked remotely open. I think it’s hard to dink and dunk against Michigan without a running game.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
When I see these matchups usually the defense is the one that wins out in a big way. Reminds me of Manning’s historic year with Denver only to run into the boom and completely hit a wall.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Truth is, sometimes offense wins.. sometimes defense. There is no stat sig on this angle. We have all the inputs, we have our educated guesses and we then hope 20yr old children execute. Some do, some dont.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
100% true. My eyes saw Pennix dropping in dimes vs a lost Texas secondary and the kids made great catches. But the windows weren’t that big and I don’t see UM being lost like they were vs TCU. Texas pass rush blows and the biggest plays of the game were made by Pennix legs. If you can’t run the ball, you can’t stop the run, you can’t rush the passer, and all you can do is hope to throw for 450 yards against the best secondary in the nation - that’s a tall tall ask. And UM defended those deep shots easily despite Alabama being more than capable and successfully having run the ball on them.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Im on UM for all the reasons too
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
The only hesitation I have from it being the largest wager of my life is what we saw against TCU with most of the same players. I blame that on having bad sign intelligence but I really don’t know what happened scheme wise to get sucked into a 100 point 1000 yard shootout.
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
michigan ypc is 4.3 on the season. oregons is 5.9. texas is 5.0.........i would say washington has faced comparable rush offenses.
michigans best passers faced was maryalnd and ohio state and i don't think that is comparable in the same realm. if ohio state had penix they throw for 350 -400...
i think its fair to say washington may be more elite at their pass game then michigan is at their run game...........Explosive plays meaning the pass - i think is wider then any other matchup - washington d vs michigan run , etc........michigan tho the more well rounded all around team. michigan more consistent, more deserving title winner based on season on whole....kind of reminds me of bama vs georgia in 21 where geoergia was better all year......but i kind of think washingtons peak is better.
over in this game is somewhat enticing......don't see how michigan stops penix and don't see how washington stops the any good offense under 25. Both duck-UW games landed near 65, michigan will try to slow the pace down but ohio state michigan had 54 points. which is where this game is lined....well washington has a much better offense then oh state and much worse defense
saban admitted the national title game is now won by offense`these days
the common theme all year has been parity cause no elite teams......washington can compete, i think some people overeacting to rose bowl beating bama like its a normal bama team. and it's not.......bama pass pro has been trash all year, washington will hold up way better there.
expecting super close game , inclined to take the points
If ASU, Stanford, Utah, Oregon State (DJU isn't good in the lights) all had better qbs Washington wouldn't even be here. We can play this game all day. It doesn't work.
Washington pass game is no doubt scary though...I think it's more because of their tempo. Michigan can stop passing teams, but they haven't faced a fast tempo like Washington this year. How they scheme for that will be interesting.
michigans d had to be designed to stop stroud and all those weapons past few years o in theory should be designed to stop penix.....all i know is this year there was more openings for osu in that game via the pass - maybe due to day having a gameplan advantage of what hasn't worked past 2 years
the x factor is coaching in this game - minter is very scary with prep - i think they outcoached bama big time. no other program is better in big time games nowadays then michgian coaching wise...they play possom most of year and save all kinds of looks for big games.........does he have the same advantage without the long prep vs bama then with 7 days .....is DeBoer able to figure out minters plan like day this year or will penix be confused ??.......thats the cap right there and we just don't know
The only reason i say washingtons peak is higher is because of penix.........he is the other x factor,,,,,,,literally every other big game in last 5 years most people would be all over the better qb and wideouts......the wideout disparity is massive........can't remember last natty the burrow watson lawrence type qb hasn't won
in a close game i think michigan gets the edge due to - ability to grind out tough yards via the ground which is more vital in tight cirtical situations - and 2 the staff seems to save plays for those moments
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Great thread. Great points for both sides. Makes me realize this game could go either way.
My thoughts are whether Washington can be formidable on defense? I think the Huskies will score their share of points (24-30) does their D give up 33 points like they did to Stanford or 31 the last 2 games? Can Washington keep Michigan in the Mid 20’s because if they do, they win. Could be a classic.
My thoughts are whether Washington can be formidable on defense? I think the Huskies will score their share of points (24-30) does their D give up 33 points like they did to Stanford or 31 the last 2 games? Can Washington keep Michigan in the Mid 20’s because if they do, they win. Could be a classic.
Glad to see great points both ways...
I saw something today...
a lot of similarities from 2014/2015 OSU run and this UM run (Bama in semi's and high powered P12 attack in Finals)
Also, the 2021 OSU and 2023 Wash offenses can be compared a bit, no doubt.
Again, BEND DON'T BREAK will be the philosophy IMO.
I'm in line with a lot of this. Good thoughts. Coaching is huge here. Tough, tough game. No walk in the park for Michigan like a lot of people think imo. If people thought bama and Michigan was a big contrast in styles and made a great fight this is even better.
Doman was pitiful. No hang time. Hopefully all corrected and not injured.
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
I don't know where the Texas has no pass rush stuff is coming from. They had a Top 15 graded pass rush from PFF and pressured Penix on a whooping 41% of his drop backs. He just is so good under pressure. One of the best ever maybe.
He doesn't take sacks at all. An 8.0% pressure to sack ratio is absurd. The guy sidesteps pressure in the pocket and gets the ball out so fast.
Milroe for Alabama is a disaster under pressure. 32.5% pressure to sack ratio is 3rd worst in the country and a PFF grade of 39 is truly pathetic. You saw his inability to read defenses and hold the ball on full display in the Rose Bowl. That won't be the case here and Michigan Under sacks is something I will hit.
Michigan has not seen a QB in the same stratosphere as this all season. 3 NFL WR to boot. All Washington has done with Penix is score. It's so hard to lay points against elite QBs like this. Look at Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers records as under dogs. They rarely if ever get blown out. Not saying Penix is that but point remains. He's 5-0 at Washington as a dog.
But at the same time it feels like Michigan is the better team top to bottom. They are much better in the trenches there is no debate. Johnson at RB says he will play for Washington but he had the foot injury before the game, did not look good, and then carted off writhing in pain. This seems like last year when TCU RB got hurt and said he would play but didn't.
I think the play here is the Over, and in particular the 1H Over. DeBoer and Harbaugh are notorious for bleeding the clock in the 2H of games. I don't think Washington is going to be able to run with Johnson banged up and expect them to come out early playing fast and throwing often. Michigan has played snails all season and I expect DeBoer to test them early with pace. I do think Michigan can score as well. Not really sold on Washington's defense at all. They haven't gotten consistent stops against good teams. In games with spreads of less than 14, minus the rain game against ORST, Washington has gone 5-1 to the Over and games have averaged 73 points per game.
Side is tough. Michigan is the better team but damn it's so hard to lay more than 3 to elite QBs. Feels like a 34-31 game.
He doesn't take sacks at all. An 8.0% pressure to sack ratio is absurd. The guy sidesteps pressure in the pocket and gets the ball out so fast.
Milroe for Alabama is a disaster under pressure. 32.5% pressure to sack ratio is 3rd worst in the country and a PFF grade of 39 is truly pathetic. You saw his inability to read defenses and hold the ball on full display in the Rose Bowl. That won't be the case here and Michigan Under sacks is something I will hit.
Michigan has not seen a QB in the same stratosphere as this all season. 3 NFL WR to boot. All Washington has done with Penix is score. It's so hard to lay points against elite QBs like this. Look at Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers records as under dogs. They rarely if ever get blown out. Not saying Penix is that but point remains. He's 5-0 at Washington as a dog.
But at the same time it feels like Michigan is the better team top to bottom. They are much better in the trenches there is no debate. Johnson at RB says he will play for Washington but he had the foot injury before the game, did not look good, and then carted off writhing in pain. This seems like last year when TCU RB got hurt and said he would play but didn't.
I think the play here is the Over, and in particular the 1H Over. DeBoer and Harbaugh are notorious for bleeding the clock in the 2H of games. I don't think Washington is going to be able to run with Johnson banged up and expect them to come out early playing fast and throwing often. Michigan has played snails all season and I expect DeBoer to test them early with pace. I do think Michigan can score as well. Not really sold on Washington's defense at all. They haven't gotten consistent stops against good teams. In games with spreads of less than 14, minus the rain game against ORST, Washington has gone 5-1 to the Over and games have averaged 73 points per game.
Side is tough. Michigan is the better team but damn it's so hard to lay more than 3 to elite QBs. Feels like a 34-31 game.
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
Did a little digging and looked at the stats for Top 3 CB for Oregon, Texas, whom Washington has played, and then Michigan. Gives a good gauge going against those 3 WR for Washington
Oregon: 63% completions allowed at 7.2 YPA and 7 TD/5 INT
Texas: 61% completions allowed at 9.1 YPA and 4TD/4INT
Michigan: 50% completions at 7.1 YPA and 3TD/6INT
The caveats being that the Oregon and Texas stats include numbers against Washington and Michigan hasn't played anyone like that...BUT I think Michigan has the best trio of CB these Washington WR have seen. This miiiiiight be the difference. If Penix has to hold the ball a split second more than he did vs Texas then there is time for the rush to get home, even as good as Penix is vs the rush.
Bottom line from the side perspective a very tough game. Will do some more digging but starting to actually lean MICH.
Oregon: 63% completions allowed at 7.2 YPA and 7 TD/5 INT
Texas: 61% completions allowed at 9.1 YPA and 4TD/4INT
Michigan: 50% completions at 7.1 YPA and 3TD/6INT
The caveats being that the Oregon and Texas stats include numbers against Washington and Michigan hasn't played anyone like that...BUT I think Michigan has the best trio of CB these Washington WR have seen. This miiiiiight be the difference. If Penix has to hold the ball a split second more than he did vs Texas then there is time for the rush to get home, even as good as Penix is vs the rush.
Bottom line from the side perspective a very tough game. Will do some more digging but starting to actually lean MICH.
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
OK I think the play is actually Michigan ML. Will lay off the 1H Over.
Some -184 out there right now. Looked it over again and they are the better team. I think those Michigan CB are the difference against the Washington WR. And thinking back Michigan kicked the shit out of ALABAMA at the line of scrimmage. They should perform quite well against a weaker team. There is genuine concern about Penix and backdoors, so I will eliminate that and take the ML. Also who the hell wants to lay 4.5, see the team win the title, and lose money when they win by 3 in a championship game?
Some -184 out there right now. Looked it over again and they are the better team. I think those Michigan CB are the difference against the Washington WR. And thinking back Michigan kicked the shit out of ALABAMA at the line of scrimmage. They should perform quite well against a weaker team. There is genuine concern about Penix and backdoors, so I will eliminate that and take the ML. Also who the hell wants to lay 4.5, see the team win the title, and lose money when they win by 3 in a championship game?
The question is why the hell penix...being as good as he is...struggled vs teams like Arizona st and Stanford I still can't wrap my head around it. I think he is the better QB vs Daniels as a pro prospect and for my money better then maye and Williams. This penix is SPECIAL. When he is dialed in it's poetry in motion.
I would say the other caveat is Texas and Oregon had to play alot more Maryland type teams then say iowas....tech okie state...usc Washington State etc.
It's all about minter disguises imo....if Washington has a great plan they can hit crossers and get 1 v 1 first round QB and wr jump ball plays like vs Texas that are unguardable.
Washington is a super interesting team to me because.....u don't ever see a lull that low ...or getting physically out manned vs Oregon in game 1....label soft team was accurate. I completely was non believer. And then come out game 2 vs Oregon and physically out physical Oregon in the trenches and they did game 2. The Utah Oregon and other conference rematches of years prior are not like that it's pretty same result most of time. There was a reason that like was 10....that game made made me a believer
The first Oregon game the dline got pressure and they caused some confusion on the backend with zone.
Alabama had 172 rush yards Michigan 130. Michigan still will give up some run it's just a super well coached team that is not super dominant anywhere but solid everywhere. Most of the kicking was pass rush and month long disguises. The first half Michigan had a better plan. Second half saban had some adjustments.
I think the short prep is more favorable to Washington
And again Alabama was like in 100s in sacks allowed this year and had milroe....I know it sounds like I'm a Michigan hater....but reputable cappers like bud Elliott and crimsonk don't think this Alabama team is any good so I'm not alone.
Michigan isn't designed to blow teams out...way their style of play is. A Washington tease would also be a good pick.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Holy shit, had to go see the actual list on the ESPN site to make sure it wasnt some website trolling
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Kansas fucking state?
Guessing most think the opposite but I actually do believe it is more likely Washington blows Michigan out then vice versa....due to the explosive nature...if Michigan has some fumbles early and gets behind 14 points or gets behind the chains I believe it is harder for them to score from behind them uw.
totally understand the frustration by some Michigan faithful when people question how elite they are,,,,that the ohio state team isn't a great ohio state team, and i believe that, i believe it's a multi loss oh state team in a quality big ten, or that bama isn't a great bama team, and i agree with that , that its a 2-3 loss bama team in a quality sec year
End of day michigan deserves historical status if they beat uw. who is a quality national title foe....
the team michigan reminds me most is CLEMSON when they had their great run as they did it with coaching, team unity, 3-4 stars in many spots instead of 5 stars, and just critical moment plays and fundamentals ..........go look at those clemson teams - thats exactly how they did it. very similar parallels.
totally understand the frustration by some Michigan faithful when people question how elite they are,,,,that the ohio state team isn't a great ohio state team, and i believe that, i believe it's a multi loss oh state team in a quality big ten, or that bama isn't a great bama team, and i agree with that , that its a 2-3 loss bama team in a quality sec year
End of day michigan deserves historical status if they beat uw. who is a quality national title foe....
the team michigan reminds me most is CLEMSON when they had their great run as they did it with coaching, team unity, 3-4 stars in many spots instead of 5 stars, and just critical moment plays and fundamentals ..........go look at those clemson teams - thats exactly how they did it. very similar parallels.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I have not seen the TX has no pass rush narrative, it all has been about Penix quick release neutralizes it. The chatter has been that UW has meh pass rush which is true
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I still remember Penix at IU and fading him because he has a soft ass arm lol, it was easy money as he floated INTs galore. Good for him that he has improved after 9 years in college.
Ill lob something out… all this talk about UM not facing anyone blah blah but same time folks admit this defense on par or better than last year? Well ok… how did UM look against Stroud last year? They fucked up ohio st which that team is/was way better than UW.
Again all this comparing is a game but acting like UM cant crush great teams… they can. And UW isnt some elite generational team.
Ill lob something out… all this talk about UM not facing anyone blah blah but same time folks admit this defense on par or better than last year? Well ok… how did UM look against Stroud last year? They fucked up ohio st which that team is/was way better than UW.
Again all this comparing is a game but acting like UM cant crush great teams… they can. And UW isnt some elite generational team.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Should be a good one. If the battles are won in the trenches, it should be Michigan’s game.
Even IF Penix has a great game, that D is really really good.
I’m really interested to see how UM goes about this game from coaching/playcalling aspect. Washington should get the ball 1st regardless heads or tails, right?
Even IF Penix has a great game, that D is really really good.
I’m really interested to see how UM goes about this game from coaching/playcalling aspect. Washington should get the ball 1st regardless heads or tails, right?
I'd love Michigan win a coin toss, feels like forever.
I can't stand receiving the ball.
Although, this would be the game to do that.
Michigan offense can breathe a bit here after the last two months of defenses.
No, Maryland wasn't a powerhouse D, but JJ couldn't walk the day before.
Not when they didn't have Harbaugh for two top 10 games. PSU on the road, OSU at home, Maryland on the road in between. No Astro was suspended during their win.
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
hope you absolutely pounded -3. Still -4 bovada, -4.5 most places
Nah. As Hunt says below.
If people think this was a legitimate thing this year and changed the outcomes vs the first 6 opponents -- well there isn't getting past stupid now is there? (Average margin of victory was 33.6ppg).
Homey been gone since.
As most have said, even the anonymous coaches article yesterday, there isn't much of an advantage in sign stealing (they all do it).
We certainly haven't put asterisks with all these champions that used ineligible players, now have we?
Oh, if you read the article yesterday in The Athletic regarding NIL, where is the NCAA here? None of this is 'legal'. You have kids straight up admitting all these schools are commiting violations.
Anyways, back to capping this game...
Oh, if you read the article yesterday in The Athletic regarding NIL, where is the NCAA here? None of this is 'legal'. You have kids straight up admitting all these schools are commiting violations.
Anyways, back to capping this game...
I think he means 3.5 there.
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
So, rumor is this ACC officiating crew is very flag happy.
That's a concern.
Remember, Michigan is one of the least penalized teams (2.8 I believe) while Washington is pretty high in the category (over 7 per game)...
But, along with being flag happy, this crew apparently loved P.I. calls.
Advantage: Washington.
That's a concern.
Remember, Michigan is one of the least penalized teams (2.8 I believe) while Washington is pretty high in the category (over 7 per game)...
But, along with being flag happy, this crew apparently loved P.I. calls.
Advantage: Washington.
And personal fouls, advantage Michigan.
RetroRetrovk
Pretty much a regular
I think Texas is better than Washington so given that we want the two best teams in the championship, I think Texas should go.
Everyone is getting on Texas pass coverage and I get it by the numbers but if you watched the game the Washington QB was throwing nearly perfect passes. I think some of this was the lack of pass rush that Texas gets. In any event, Michigan will get a decent rush and being perfect will be that much harder (and I don't think he could repeat that performance anyway).
Washington run defense was pretty bad. Texas took out their collective six shooter and shot themselves in the foot repeatedly but seemed able to move the ball at near will on Washington.
11 pt win or so for Michigan is my guess.
Everyone is getting on Texas pass coverage and I get it by the numbers but if you watched the game the Washington QB was throwing nearly perfect passes. I think some of this was the lack of pass rush that Texas gets. In any event, Michigan will get a decent rush and being perfect will be that much harder (and I don't think he could repeat that performance anyway).
Washington run defense was pretty bad. Texas took out their collective six shooter and shot themselves in the foot repeatedly but seemed able to move the ball at near will on Washington.
11 pt win or so for Michigan is my guess.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
I still stand by this and how this Michigan defense did shut down a better offense last year in Ohio St.
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