scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
This one was up earlier today despite the spilt squad situation. KC was -130 to -140 depending on when you got to it.
Wake up there's money on the table
- Thread starter scdoggy
- Start date
This one was up earlier today despite the spilt squad situation. KC was -130 to -140 depending on when you got to it.
Can't believe we didn't get the world famous Dice-K implosion earlier. Three consecutive one-out singles in the 1st only to fly into a double-play. Back-to-back one-out singles in the 2nd only to ground into a double-play. Ah well, time to rally 'em up.
P-Unit
Beacon of Calmness
Here you go doggy. ATL for me. They bringing the big boys....
[TABLE="class: tlineup"]
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[TD="colspan: 4"]7:05pm Braves (P. Maholm - L) @ Yankees (D. Phelps - R)</SPAN>
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Jordan Schafer (L) CF
2. Jason Heyward (L) RF
3. Justin Upton (R) LF
4. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
5. B.J. Upton (R) DH
6. Dan Uggla (R) 2B
7. Chris Johnson (R) 3B
8. Tyler Pastornicky (R) SS
9. Matt Pagnozzi (R) C
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
2. Ichiro Suzuki (L) LF
3. Jayson Nix (R) 2B
4. Travis Hafner (L) DH
5. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS
6. Chris Stewart (R) C
7. Dan Johnson (L) 1B
8. Zoilo Almonte (S) RF
9. Corban Joseph (L) 3B
[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TABLE="class: tlineup"]
<TBODY>[TR="class: lheader"]
[TD="colspan: 4"]7:05pm Braves (P. Maholm - L) @ Yankees (D. Phelps - R)</SPAN>
Gametime Forecast: 65°F • Partly Cloudy • 0%PoP
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Jordan Schafer (L) CF
2. Jason Heyward (L) RF
3. Justin Upton (R) LF
4. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
5. B.J. Upton (R) DH
6. Dan Uggla (R) 2B
7. Chris Johnson (R) 3B
8. Tyler Pastornicky (R) SS
9. Matt Pagnozzi (R) C
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
2. Ichiro Suzuki (L) LF
3. Jayson Nix (R) 2B
4. Travis Hafner (L) DH
5. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS
6. Chris Stewart (R) C
7. Dan Johnson (L) 1B
8. Zoilo Almonte (S) RF
9. Corban Joseph (L) 3B
[/TD]
[/TR]
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scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Yeah, I saw that P. I'm getting another 1.5 units there. Like I said earlier, they have the minus side on the wrong side of that one.
Total of 2.5 units on the Braves at +110
Fucking Frisco collapsed in the ninth. Sitting at 10-1-1 in Exhibition MLB with ATL pending.
Total of 2.5 units on the Braves at +110
Fucking Frisco collapsed in the ninth. Sitting at 10-1-1 in Exhibition MLB with ATL pending.
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
Tailed for $100 :thumbsup2:
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
MLB Exhibition YTD 11-1-1 +17.3 units
Won't be around much today. Don't like the Nats lineup today.
Phi -125 1.5 units
Stl -155 1 unit
Pit +115 1 unit - really don't get the line in this one. Pirates have most of their starters playing and Boston missing a few. Just don't see how you make Boston the fave here.
Won't be around much today. Don't like the Nats lineup today.
Phi -125 1.5 units
Stl -155 1 unit
Pit +115 1 unit - really don't get the line in this one. Pirates have most of their starters playing and Boston missing a few. Just don't see how you make Boston the fave here.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Detroit probably wins but the overall pitching edge for the game will be with toronto on paper and that makes laying it a little bit dicey .. I mean in ST ball it is far more about the lineups than the pitching ( sometimes a pitcher is working on adding a new pitch even ) but I really didn't see value in that detroit line. Cardinals are another deceivingly high favorite I wouldn't be surprised to see lose today based on non-lineup factors. Good thread guys btw. KC has to be played regression to the mean or no.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Go for it VK - always good to hear from you.
I'm not getting in front of that KC train unless the lineups dictate it. I think teams with a lot of young talent who will be competing for some actual playing time once the season starts are tough to bet against this time of year, and KC fits that description. You know those types of players will bring it every day. The seasoned vets who have positions locked up tend to mail it in at times during spring ball. My two cents anyway....
I'm not getting in front of that KC train unless the lineups dictate it. I think teams with a lot of young talent who will be competing for some actual playing time once the season starts are tough to bet against this time of year, and KC fits that description. You know those types of players will bring it every day. The seasoned vets who have positions locked up tend to mail it in at times during spring ball. My two cents anyway....
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
tailed for a unit on each :shake:
P-Unit
Beacon of Calmness
nice work, as usual.
As VK said, good thread. Lots of good value in these early ST games, but prices are already starting to firm up quite a bit. I mean, -180 in a ST game? rediculous....
Lots of faves covering early and I think as the lines move up there is definite value in some of these dogs. PIT today. Braves yesterday. Linesmakers putting lines out a day before they even know who will be travelling/playing is a joke and that lends to great opportunities to grab value.
As VK said, good thread. Lots of good value in these early ST games, but prices are already starting to firm up quite a bit. I mean, -180 in a ST game? rediculous....
Lots of faves covering early and I think as the lines move up there is definite value in some of these dogs. PIT today. Braves yesterday. Linesmakers putting lines out a day before they even know who will be travelling/playing is a joke and that lends to great opportunities to grab value.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
As the lineups get less unbalanced deeper into ST it will become easier to find value through pitchers 2-4 vs pitchers 2-4 for a given game. Also read between the lines on some of these pitchers when you are reading the blogs and what not. A few of them are adding new pitches and may throw their "bad" pitch a disproportionate number of times while they are doing it and when you are only throwng 3 innings that matters a lot. Agree with doggy that there is a big difference between llineups of starters that are young vs. lineups of starters that are established, older, vets. Also agree with punit .. some of these lines are getting a little inflated towards the faves with the 1-8(dh9) clear edge. Not sure it is time to jump ship on that yet but it appears it will be forced soon enough unless you get the lineups faster than everyone else and get down before the move.
Nice work today doggy.
Nice work today doggy.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Agree P - The lines are starting to shift for sure. We've seen some good value on bargain priced faves so far, but as prices move up, I'll be looking hard at the dogs. Especially in games against marquee teams (NYY, BOS, LAD). The scrubs on these teams are worth fading and that's where I'll be focusing the rest of the way.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
2013 MLB 14-1-1 +20.8 units
Thanks for all the well wishes fellas. Glad to help share what I see out there.
Not much value at all on today's prices. I looked at lineups and the only thing that jumped out at me was the RedSox, but they are playing a SS Twins team and I don't get a line. I do see a bit of value on the Yanks today at +105, and I think the price on the Mets is out of hand. Even with that Marlins lineup, there is value on +120. I have a few leans in the later games but nothing strong enough to play.
I hate this price, but I do think I'm backing a winner here so let's give it a go:
Baltimore -135 two units
Jays have a bunch of starters in, but they sort of fit into the discussion of guys who have positions locked up and may not be giving it 100% out there. No Markakis or Jones for Baltimore, but we get the rest of the starters. McLouth, Pearch, Jackson and Reimold round out the DH and OF spots, which I'm not sure is a bad thing. Like we talked about yesterday, sometimes its better to get the guys who are on the bubble in terms of getting playing time, and McLouth, Jackson, and Reimold in particular are going to be fighting for the remaining OF spot. Coming into the season it looked like McLouth's job but Reimold has been crushing the ball this spring, and at one time was a big prospect in Baltimore who fell out of favor due to repeated injuries. Jackson has been hitting well and its a three horse race for the last OF spot. Add to that a young guy like Machado who should come motivated, Brian Roberts trying to return to form, and guys like Weiters and Hardy filling out the reamining spots and I like it. Hamels also coming back from an injury riddled 2012. Showalter has these guys drinking their own Kool Aid, and looking at the way the Baltimore futures have dropped in the last few weeks, linesmakers are taking notice too. A big price to pay in spring ball, but I think its justified.
Thanks for all the well wishes fellas. Glad to help share what I see out there.
Not much value at all on today's prices. I looked at lineups and the only thing that jumped out at me was the RedSox, but they are playing a SS Twins team and I don't get a line. I do see a bit of value on the Yanks today at +105, and I think the price on the Mets is out of hand. Even with that Marlins lineup, there is value on +120. I have a few leans in the later games but nothing strong enough to play.
I hate this price, but I do think I'm backing a winner here so let's give it a go:
Baltimore -135 two units
Jays have a bunch of starters in, but they sort of fit into the discussion of guys who have positions locked up and may not be giving it 100% out there. No Markakis or Jones for Baltimore, but we get the rest of the starters. McLouth, Pearch, Jackson and Reimold round out the DH and OF spots, which I'm not sure is a bad thing. Like we talked about yesterday, sometimes its better to get the guys who are on the bubble in terms of getting playing time, and McLouth, Jackson, and Reimold in particular are going to be fighting for the remaining OF spot. Coming into the season it looked like McLouth's job but Reimold has been crushing the ball this spring, and at one time was a big prospect in Baltimore who fell out of favor due to repeated injuries. Jackson has been hitting well and its a three horse race for the last OF spot. Add to that a young guy like Machado who should come motivated, Brian Roberts trying to return to form, and guys like Weiters and Hardy filling out the reamining spots and I like it. Hamels also coming back from an injury riddled 2012. Showalter has these guys drinking their own Kool Aid, and looking at the way the Baltimore futures have dropped in the last few weeks, linesmakers are taking notice too. A big price to pay in spring ball, but I think its justified.
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Hey bud I'm new here but I must say you are pretty good...thanks a lot for the picks
P-Unit
Beacon of Calmness
Agree doggy. can also make a case for the Pirates today but was hoping for something closer to even money.
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[TD="colspan: 4"]1:05pm Rays (A. Cobb - R) @ Pirates (J. McDonald - R)</SPAN>
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[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Desmond Jennings (R) CF
2. Mike Fontenot (L) SS
3. Ryan Roberts (R) 2B
4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
5. James Loney (L) 1B
6. Jack Cust (L) DH
7. Sean Rodriguez (R) LF
8. Chris Gimenez (R) 3B
9. Jose Lobaton (S) C
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Felix Pie (L) LF
2. Travis Snider (L) RF
3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF
4. Brad Hawpe (L) 1B
5. Gaby Sanchez (R) 3B
6. Russell Martin (R) DH
7. Jordy Mercer (R) SS
8. Tony Sanchez (R) C
9. Josh Harrison (R) 2B
[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TABLE="class: tlineup"]
<TBODY>[TR="class: lheader"]
[TD="colspan: 4"]1:05pm Rays (A. Cobb - R) @ Pirates (J. McDonald - R)</SPAN>
Gametime Forecast: 62°F • Sunny • 0%PoP
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Desmond Jennings (R) CF
2. Mike Fontenot (L) SS
3. Ryan Roberts (R) 2B
4. Matt Joyce (L) RF
5. James Loney (L) 1B
6. Jack Cust (L) DH
7. Sean Rodriguez (R) LF
8. Chris Gimenez (R) 3B
9. Jose Lobaton (S) C
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1. Felix Pie (L) LF
2. Travis Snider (L) RF
3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF
4. Brad Hawpe (L) 1B
5. Gaby Sanchez (R) 3B
6. Russell Martin (R) DH
7. Jordy Mercer (R) SS
8. Tony Sanchez (R) C
9. Josh Harrison (R) 2B
[/TD]
[/TR]
</TBODY>[/TABLE]
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Dylan - thanks and welcome to the site. There are some really solid baseball cappers around here who jump into the mix once the real games begin. NCAA football and the baseball crew are by far my favorite forums to visit at this place. You'll get a lot of good info from this site, and I learn something new every season. Best of luck.
P U - what price are you getting on PIT? I saw even money earlier but now have a -105. I don't disagree with you at that price, and I probably would have made then -115-120ish.
P U - what price are you getting on PIT? I saw even money earlier but now have a -105. I don't disagree with you at that price, and I probably would have made then -115-120ish.
Coverdatspred
Curious About George Costanza‘s Modeling Career
Great work so far doggy, I've been betting the ST games here and there but overall been pretty busy researching for he upcoming season. Have straight up tailed on more than a couple with you. Keep up the nice run bro.
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