Us Open Picks

alangrrbs

alangrrbs

Pretty much a regular
Henrik Stenson ov Jordan Spieth



Spieth has not been elite over the last couple months, and it’s all because of putting. His last 4 finishes are 41st, 21st, 32nd, and missed cut. Jack Nicklaus talked about it at The Memorial. GIVE THE QUOTE. Stenson meanwhile has been steady and consistent, 26th, 13th, 23rd, 5th, 6th…he’s comfortable with his game, and he’s comfortable with his putting now.



Patrick Reed ov Sergio Garcia



Here we go with the baby theory. Since Sergio Garcia had his first baby here are his finishes in tournament play. MC, MC, MC, 70th, MC. Patrick Reed now has his contacts in, and he’s been really good. He won the Masters, hasn’t missed the cut since then, and has finished 29th, 40th, and 8th since then. And Reed has decent history at US Opens, he finished 13th last year…and that was without contacts!!!



Charles Howell ov Kevin Chappell



Giving credit to @josephwatson23. Last week he noticed a friday matchup against Kevin Chappell who’s been struggling, and I noticed it too…we made some money off of him. Somethings wrong with Kevin Chappell. He’s normally a pretty good golfer, and he’s got good course history at a lot of tournaments, but listen to these stats. Before the Masters, he finished 7th, 30th, 20th, 8th, 31st, 6th, 21st. Now start at the Masters. MC, Mc, 30th, Mc, Mc, Mc. Since the Masters, 6 tournaments and one round under 70. He’s been bad. We went over Charles Howell last week and how sneaky good he’s been…no missed cuts, his last finishes are 26th, 65th, 9th, 17th, 21st, 55h, 18th, 9th. And he’s only 6700 in draftkings.



Jimmy Walker ov Kyle Stanley



I don’t need to go into a ton of detail here, Jimmy Walker is back from Lyme disease he looks healthy and his last few finishes show that. 20th, 6th, 2nd, 4th. Kyle Stanley is all over the board, he’s super inconsistent 2nd, missed cut, 13th, 52nd. Give me the guy in the middle of a hot streak over an inconsistent Kyle Stanley



Shane Lowry ov Aaron Wise



This one feels like a gift. We love betting against random guys who win tournaments, and we’ve won betting against Aaron Wise recently, and we’re gonna do it again this week. Since his win he’s missed the cut two times in a row and in his win at the Byron Nelson he’s worse round was 68, since then he doesn’t have a round under 70. Meanwhile, Shane Lowry has been decent over the last few months. No missed cuts, he even has a couple of top 15 finishes. Look. This is a big boy tournament. Shane Lowry has finished 46th, 9th, and 2nd in the last 3 US Opens. Aaron Wise has played in one US Open, that was in 2016. He missed the cut and shot +10.



Ian Poulter ov Luke List



You want to talk big boy tournaments, and betting on the Adults? Give me Ian freaking Poulter on the big stage. Ian Poulter earlier this year had to win a tournament to make it into the Masters…what’d he do? Won the tournament. We talk about betting against random guys who win tournaments, but Poulter isn’t a random guy. Since his win, no missed cuts, he turned around on a short week after his win and made the cut at the masters, and since then he’s played in 4 tournaments, and finished in the top 20 every single time. Luke List has a couple random good finishes, but his last 2 tournaments 37th, and 56th, and here’s the other big thing for me in this matchup. The US Open is a different course every year, but Poulter hasn’t missed the cut since 2011 at the US Open…Luke List has played in 3 US Opens. He’s never made the cut.



Kiradech Aphibrnrat ov Cameron Smith



We mentioned the other week about how bad Cameron Smith has been since the Zurich, and we weren’t kidding. Before the Zurich, he finished 32nd and the RBC Heritage, 5th at the masters and 5th at the match play. But his second round at the Zurich he and his partner shot 76. Since that round he’s played in 3 tournaments, hasn’t made the cut in any tournament and here are his round scores. 76, 75, 79, 74, 75, 72. Barn Rat missed the cut last week, but before that no missed cuts in several months he even has a few top 5 finishes and a 13th in there. This is just a big fade of Cameron Smith who still looks like a 13 year old going through puberty…so again. Give me the adult.
 
And I will have a few more prop plays tomorrow. And for the record, me and Sacker came up with these plays and the prop plays. We head out to Shinnecock tomorrow and will be there Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Can't wait.
 
Outstanding write-ups.

That is GREAT capping there.

Have a great time at the tourney, quite jealous!
 
Have a great time out there Andy! I was considering the fade Chappell angle but I am concerned about the low ball flight of Howell III... Not sure he can hold these greens. Curious to see how much rain they get on Wednesday. That could really help him out... Enjoy Shinnecock and say hello to Sacker...

The other plays look solid imo good luck
 
We are heading there now to stay the night. We made some more plays, I’ll post later tonight when we get there. Some make and miss the cut parlays.
 
More plays for the tourney:

1st round Andrew Johnston ov Kevin Chappell
Winning score under 275.5
Winning scores under 274.5
Phil to finish under 20.5

To make the cut parlay:
Dustin, Justin Rose, Mickelson Grace $100 to win $116

To make the cut parlay:
Dustin, Rory, Rose, Rahm, Tiger, Koepka, Stenson, Phil, Grace, Fleetwood, Casey, Noren, Walker $140 to win $3028

To Miss the cut parlay
Aaron Wise, Tyrell Hatton, Luke List, Brian Harman, Cameron Smith $140 to win $8,800

To Miss the cut parlay
Cameron Smith, Aaron Wise $100 to win $440
 
Me and Sacker looking at the weather...the afternoon guys tomorrow got hosed. They get high winds tomorrow afternoon and friday morning. The thursday morning guys get low winds tomorrow morning and friday afternoon.

So we made some parlays to fade afternoon guys tomorrow.

To Miss the cut

Snedeker, Tiger, Cameron Smith, Tyrell Hatton

To Miss the cut

Snedeker, Sergio, Dufner, Cameron Smith
 
REALLY like your "to miss the cut" plays, Andy, BUT none of them are offered at the Las Vegas books this weekend. some what surprised you did NOT add Sergio Garcia with his recent "performance". I have a "to make the cut? NO +200 straight up bet on him. CUT 4 of his last 5 tourneys

also chanced this "dog with the least fleas" group bet (bet/return)

Matthew Fitzpatrick+250 (40/140) (T-8th BMW PGA his last. MADE the CUT Players, RBC and Masters before that. MADE the CUT his 3 previous US Opens)
Byeong-Hun An +250 (CUT FedEx St Jude. T-2nd Memorial. T-15th BMW PGA. CUT 3 of his 4 US Opens)
Aaron Wise +260 (CUT Memorial. CUT Colonial. WIN Byron Nelson. CUT his one US Open)
Peter Uihlein +275 (T-43rd FedEx St Jude. T-5th Memorial. CUT both his US Opens)
 
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so Sergio Garcia decides to PLAY GOLF this weekend ??? [+5] a decent score for him considering that MAY make the CUT. the whole 1st round pretty much a WRECK for me with "Rahmbo [+8] and "The Mole [+5]. looks like the CUT could come @ [+6]. at least Stenson [+1] over Spieth [+8] looking GOOD for you, Andy. hard to believe only FIVE players [even] or better and the FOUR [-1] tied for the lead

waiting to read your and sacker's assessment of the 1st round :shake:
 
Amazing first day. I'll give you guys some things we saw.

-Weather was brutal for the morning guys...then even worse for the start of the afternoon guys. But then around 5 or so, the wind died down a bunch so if you look, some of the late guys played great late. Stenson was +4 and then finished the round shooting -3 for a total of +1. Tomorrow's wind is going to be around 7-9 MPH, and then late afternoon be below 5 MPH. I think we see lower scores tomorrow.

-We bet Beef ov Chappell, so we followed them for a few holes. Beef was awesome. Super nice, got a great pic with him, talked to the gallery, and seemed right at home. He hit one in the fescue, took his medicine and double bogey...played the rest of the round 1 over which was impressive.

-Day was a train wreck in person. So was Rory, Phil, and Spieth. We couldn't follow the Phil group cause there's so many people there you can't see anything.

-The Tiger galleries are insanity. I watched 2 holes, and couldn't take any more. It's a complete circus. I can't believe other guys can play golf in that environement. You can't see how crazy it is on TV. In person it's over the top.

-The 10th hole and the 2nd hole were crazy to watch. Especially the 2nd. It's basically not fair...lol. I watched 12 guys in a row...11 of them bogey or worse.

-Good lord Brooks Koepka looks like he could play linebacker for the Ravens. He's a beast.

-Me and Sacker parked at the parking area where you take the bus into Shinnecock. We got on the bus at 6:15. It's a 9.8 mile drive. Traffic was so bad, it took us 2 hours to get there. 9.8 miles...2 hours.
 
-The group of Stenson, Adam Scott and Martin Kaymer had a very strange vibe and feel to it. Stenson was either walking way behind or in front of them. Scott and Kaymer were all over the place. A couple times, Scott was away and Stenson hit. Another time, he was so far behind his playing partners, they opened the fairway for people to walk through without noticing he was behind so he had to walk through us. I was 4 feet from him...told him good luck, he smiled and said thanks. As I was walking down the side, Scott hit one out of the fescue and missed my head by a foot. I found his ball and stood there til he got up there and watched him hit. It was pretty cool. Got a great pic of it on twitter.

Our parlay to miss the cut of Wise, Smith, Harman, Hatton, List is pretty good right now. +4 is the best score, and that's Harman. List and Hatton at +5. Wise and Smith terrible. We'll probably follow them if it's close at the end of their round tomorrow. If it hits, me and Sacker win $8,800, and we sell our tickets for Saturday and party tomorrow night and Saturday.

Ill check in with everyone tomorrow night!
 
Great recap.

Thanks for taking the time to do that. I love reading that type of stuff. The thoughts on that grouping are very interesting (Henrik, Scott and Kaymer). I wonder if there is some backstory there...
 
cut should be around +10 or so I'm guessing after today... Maybe higher?

Thank you for sharing the updates... The carnage was tough to watch on tv...
 
I have added @golfbettingguys to my twitter "following list", Andy. EXCELLENT info about Thursday's play and LOVED the pic of my man "The Beef". I HOPE you are correct about Tiger galleries being a distraction. he plays with Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson Friday and I need DJ to "BLOW UP"!!! :)
 
Andy, did you and sacker follow the Rahm-Garcia group any Friday ??? I am STILL in shock at how BAD "Rahmbo" played this tourney [+7} Friday for tourney [+15] CUT. his ONLY missed cuts the last calender year at that Zurich Classic two ball event in New Orleans late April, the Andalucia Masters in Spain last October AND last years US Open @ Erin Hills. he definitely needs to take next week off and get ready for the upcoming four "Euro Tour Majors" Open de France, Irish Open (defending champion) Scottish Open and British Open :confused:

btw, at least I get some back on BOTH Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia "to make the cut?" NO bets. the "Rahmbo" bet a "halfazzed hedge" just in case he screwed up so I got back about 70% of what I bet on the Big Basque this week :shake7:
 
Friday Thoughts

-I live in Indiana, and I'm used to weathermen screwing up forecasts. The forecast today was the worst I've ever seen. We woke up at 6:30 AM, and the forecast was nice morning, calm, slight chance of rain in the afternoon. It rained for 2 hours in the morning, was windy, and then calmed down and was beautiful in the afternoon. Complete opposite.

-Holy Christ did the morning guys get hosed. They played in absolutely terrible conditions, and the afternoon guys got no wind, and soft greens. What DJ and Fleetwood did in the morning was truly incredible. Sacker and I think DJ is in a class all by himself on tour right now.

-Up until this week, I was on the side of the galleries, and I thought the golfers were being babies complaining about galleries. After this week, I need to rethink my position. Poulter's implosion on the 8th hole was a direct result of the gallery...and the crazy part was it was his fans!!!!! It's too much to go into detail here, but I'll go over it and the Tiger and Phil galleries on the pod on Tuesday. I saw a lot of things that I never knew about until seeing it in person.

-Sacker is doubled up on Phil ov DeChambeau, and Grace ov DeChambeau bets. Dechambeu made well over 100 feet in putts. Believe me....I heard about it all day....lol. No way Bryson does that again tomorrow.

-Bubba is really bad at links courses, we thought it before the tournament, and it played out here. He was terrible, couldn't get anything going, and he even had the better tee times.

-Our big miss the cut parlay of List, Wise, Smith, Harman and Hatton got torpedoed with the weather. List, Wise, Smith...morning today missed the cut. Harman and Hatton make the cut...afternoon today.

-Jon Rahm is never going to win a major if he doesn't change something with his attitude after a bad shot. I didn't watch a ton of him, but when you watch him, you can just see how mad he gets. You see it on TV, but you don't see him when they cut away. He's pouting, he walks mad down the fairway, doesn't talk to his caddie...it's really a bad look for him, and it absolutely affects his game.
 
-Shinnecock has been great. The course looks fantastic, the prices of concessions are very reasonable, the souvenir shop is very well run, great products, not too expensive. They fixed the shuttle situation today. The ride yesterday took 2 hours. Rides today were 45 minutes. But boy did they mess up the crossing the fairways areas, and some of the roped off areas. They're a disaster. There are many areas where they funnel you into an area, and it ends up being a dead end, and you have to walk a mile to a crazy path they have for you. And there aren't very many of them. We waited 30 minutes at a crossing today because golfers kept coming through, and they wouldn't open the rope. It's the one downside from this weekend.

-Favorite hole to watch this week is hole 10. Guys drive it with an iron or wood into the fairway right before a huge hill. A few guys try to drive it down the hill to have a short pitch, but it's up a huge hill. And it's easy to put it over the green. Bubba put it at the bottom of the hill, and it took him 3 shots to get it up. Standing on that green was the best spot so far. Hole 2 in the stands was awesome yesterday cause it was playing so hard. But the rain softened up the green today, and guys were playing it much easier.
 
Thanks BAR. It's an interesting idea. It's be a nice touch from the networks to literally have someone who's a reporter type do the fan experience every week. I'm with you though. If every week someone could give me perspective from an actual fan's perspective...that'd be pretty awesome.
 
excellent write up yet AGAIN, Andy. I agree with your comments on my boy "Rahmbo". have seen it before when he plays poorly in Euro Tour tourneys. crabs at the gallery, crabs at the TV camera people and can just be a miserable jerk. needs to mature. couple of poor shots or a three putt an he loses concentration. reminds me of the Aussie Bruce "Crabby" Crampton back in his day :shake:

probably DJ's tourney with a four shot lead and playing "controlled golf" although BOTH Tommy Fleetwood and Brooks Koepka shooting [-4] for tourney [+1] look interesting only because I have seen them shoot "wicked low" rounds when they get it going. I do NOT see either tied 2nd Scott Piercy or Charley Hoffman challenging DJ :confused:
 
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from @golfbettingguys Wonder if we will get a heavy dose of Weekend Charley this week?

Charley Hoffman adjusted "to win" odds 25-1 @ Westgate & William-Hill. Scott Piercy 40-1 @ Westgate

interesting DJ prop @ Westgate. his "to win" -150 vs FIELD +130. he is "to win" -135 @ William-Hill
 
btw, FANTASTIC result on your tourney match plays this week, Andy. after 2nd round >>>

Henrik Stenson [even/+1] ov Jordan Spieth [+1/+9] CUT WIN
Patrick Reed [+2/+5] ov Sergio Garcia [+9/+14] CUT WIN
Charles Howell [+2/+3] ov Kevin Chappell [+2/+7] in play
Jimmy Walker [even/+5] ov Kyle Stanley [+9/+14] CUT WIN
Shane Lowry [+9/+14] CUT ov Aaron Wise [+4/+11] CUT lose
Ian Poulter [+2/+1] ov Luke List [+7/+12] CUT WIN
Kiradech Aphibrnrat [+2/+8] ov Cameron Smith [+2/+11] CUT WIN

5 WIN and 1 loss after the cut = 6 matches you do NOT have to SWEAT the weekend with just one "in play" and Howell with a four shot lead :shake:
 
No problem everyone. Happy to do it.

Yeah, LeRink...we’re profitable alreadyHowell finishes off Chappell and Phil gets into top 20, and we hit those under totals bets...it’ll be the biggest week we’ve ever had on the podcast. Combine that with me actually being there in person, it would be a memorable week for sure.
 
Charles Howell [+7/+10] ov Kevin Chappell [+8/+15] after 3rd round looking good, Andy :shake:

WTF HAPPENED on Saturday ??? OK the wind was blowing BUT just FIVE golfers EVEN or UNDER PAR ??? just can NOT BELIEVE some of the scores from 2nd round leaders. DJ [+7] for [+3] ??? "The Hoff" [+7] for [+7] ??? "The Poulter-geist" [+6] for [+7] ??? AND Tommy Fleetwood [+8] for [+9] ??? that "Cocker Tommy" score just has me in SHOCK!!! :shitstorm:
 
read your "Wow. Mike Davis apologizing on Fox about the course tells you everything you need to know" tweet, Andy. you are at the course so you can assess it better than I can just watching on TV BUT I can NOT see HOW playing this course for the membership can be enjoyable. reminds me of when I used to get to play Oakmont a few times when I was flying corporate out of Pittsburgh back in the late 1970's. THAT place was "gimmick golf" with their "church pew" sand traps and lightning fast greens that sloped AWAY from the fairways. the damn greens were SO hard and SO fast we used to practice putting on the company hanger's epoxy cement floor!!!

:golffrustrated:
 
Well, the course isn't set up for the members. The tees for the members are way closer, and the rough and greens are way different. I heard lots of locals talking about the course this week, and how crazy they made it this week. Today was bad. It was a bad look for the whole tournament. On TV you also couldn't tell how freaking hot it was. It was blistering. That being said, there's a slew of guys at the top, and it comes down to one round. I kind of like the end of this epic tourney with all the craziness comes down to one round. Tomorrow will be bananas. As for reporting, I actually took a flight home tonight, and just got home. We don't have tickets for tomorrow, so I just got a flight tonight so I can watch the whole thing tomorrow. I'm beat, but I'll be doing a big thing about the US Open on the pod this week about stuff you couldn't see on TV. My goal is to come up with stuff nobody else talks about, and of course there will be Sacker stories. Lol
 
LeRinkRat said:
btw, FANTASTIC result on your tourney match plays this week, Andy. after 2nd round >>>

Henrik Stenson [even/+1] ov Jordan Spieth [+1/+9] CUT WIN
Patrick Reed [+2/+5] ov Sergio Garcia [+9/+14] CUT WIN
Charles Howell [+2/+3] ov Kevin Chappell [+2/+7] in play
Jimmy Walker [even/+5] ov Kyle Stanley [+9/+14] CUT WIN
Shane Lowry [+9/+14] CUT ov Aaron Wise [+4/+11] CUT lose
Ian Poulter [+2/+1] ov Luke List [+7/+12] CUT WIN
Kiradech Aphibrnrat [+2/+8] ov Cameron Smith [+2/+11] CUT WIN

5 WIN and 1 loss after the cut = 6 matches you do NOT have to SWEAT the weekend with just one "in play" and Howell with a four shot lead :shake:
Click to expand...

AND Charles Howell III [+2] for tourney [+12] ov Kevin Chappell [+7] for [+22] WIN

 
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