UFC 263 Picks
- Thread starter Andy
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Andy
Pretty much a regular
I plan on betting Collier if I get the line I want, hoping for over +150. Think its generally a pkem vs felipe so would be solid value. Dont normally play too many fights i feel are coinflips unless i'm getting very significant value.
Vendramini is the better striker and should throw with some volume. Also think he's got a juijitsu edge. Ziam questionable in his takedown defense. Vendramini comes from a better fight camp here. I wonder what this line is if Ziam doesn't get a favorable scorecard in his last fight, a fight many thought he actually lost vs mullarkey.
Peterson/hooper a true coinflip and easy pass. Should be entertaining battle, esp if/when this goes to the ground.
Mckinney on very short notice too much of a wildcard to feel comfortable laying big odds on frevola. Mckinney has a lot of quick finishes, though likely gasses if he doesnt get one.
Kianzad-Davis an easy pass, Davis getting up there in age but still can't be counted out. never like laying big odds on women's fights, lets see if penny can pass this test.
Evloev is at the max odds i'll lay, I like him a lot here. Big grappling edge and solid cardio and his striking is improving. Seems to gain momentum as fight goes along. Dawodu will have a punchers chance, he has a striking edge but I dont think he will be able to keep this standing. I'm not a prop guy but evloev by sub looks juicy.
Murphy isn't the most technical fighter but she is very strong and aggressive and will put the pressure on you which is something calderwood doesn't deal with too well. whatever adv calderwood has with striking wont lead to any kind of finish. calderwood has struggled on the ground, been submitted a lot. murphy isn't an amazing grappler though a sub is live i think. plus odds seem like a solid play.
Stewart is probably my weakest play and it is going against conventional wisdom as most people know anders was about to finish stewart before the illegal knee. this rematch though is at a higher weight class and in the larger cage, it won't be the same fight. Did you know Stewart was a -175 fav last time? is he suddenly a solid dog now? seems like too big of an overcorrection. Think stewart will find some success on the feet here and anders while he may have a small wrestling adv he's not some finisher on the ground.
I had a hard time with the dober-riddell fight. the line seems correct. dober just a little bit better overall, should have a wrestling adv for sure though riddell is coming on and i like his striking. think this is one you just sit back and enjoy.
I think we all understand what the hill-craig fight is about. either craig gets knocked out or manages a late submission. price is too high for me to play hill and i prefer not to chase long odds on a submission hope.
What does Maia have left at his age is the only question. Always live on the ground, dont think we can fully trust muhammad here at over 2-1 odds.
Edwards should dominate diaz, showcase fight for him. diaz always susceptible to getting cut open. diaz will have the crowd i suppose. odds are kinda absurd.
Like Figueiredo quite a bit here, i think he won that last fight even with the point deduction. Moreno's path is to make this another war though I dont think he can finish deiveson. Figueiredo better all around here, more technically sound--should score points and take rounds, also has a grappling adv, submission is live.
Adesanya back at his normal weight, huge striking adv. people think vettori will just be able to do what Jan did but i think we saw where the size adv played a huge part. Dont see Isreal getting bullied the same here. Odds just a bit high for me to play him though.
Vendramini is the better striker and should throw with some volume. Also think he's got a juijitsu edge. Ziam questionable in his takedown defense. Vendramini comes from a better fight camp here. I wonder what this line is if Ziam doesn't get a favorable scorecard in his last fight, a fight many thought he actually lost vs mullarkey.
Peterson/hooper a true coinflip and easy pass. Should be entertaining battle, esp if/when this goes to the ground.
Mckinney on very short notice too much of a wildcard to feel comfortable laying big odds on frevola. Mckinney has a lot of quick finishes, though likely gasses if he doesnt get one.
Kianzad-Davis an easy pass, Davis getting up there in age but still can't be counted out. never like laying big odds on women's fights, lets see if penny can pass this test.
Evloev is at the max odds i'll lay, I like him a lot here. Big grappling edge and solid cardio and his striking is improving. Seems to gain momentum as fight goes along. Dawodu will have a punchers chance, he has a striking edge but I dont think he will be able to keep this standing. I'm not a prop guy but evloev by sub looks juicy.
Murphy isn't the most technical fighter but she is very strong and aggressive and will put the pressure on you which is something calderwood doesn't deal with too well. whatever adv calderwood has with striking wont lead to any kind of finish. calderwood has struggled on the ground, been submitted a lot. murphy isn't an amazing grappler though a sub is live i think. plus odds seem like a solid play.
Stewart is probably my weakest play and it is going against conventional wisdom as most people know anders was about to finish stewart before the illegal knee. this rematch though is at a higher weight class and in the larger cage, it won't be the same fight. Did you know Stewart was a -175 fav last time? is he suddenly a solid dog now? seems like too big of an overcorrection. Think stewart will find some success on the feet here and anders while he may have a small wrestling adv he's not some finisher on the ground.
I had a hard time with the dober-riddell fight. the line seems correct. dober just a little bit better overall, should have a wrestling adv for sure though riddell is coming on and i like his striking. think this is one you just sit back and enjoy.
I think we all understand what the hill-craig fight is about. either craig gets knocked out or manages a late submission. price is too high for me to play hill and i prefer not to chase long odds on a submission hope.
What does Maia have left at his age is the only question. Always live on the ground, dont think we can fully trust muhammad here at over 2-1 odds.
Edwards should dominate diaz, showcase fight for him. diaz always susceptible to getting cut open. diaz will have the crowd i suppose. odds are kinda absurd.
Like Figueiredo quite a bit here, i think he won that last fight even with the point deduction. Moreno's path is to make this another war though I dont think he can finish deiveson. Figueiredo better all around here, more technically sound--should score points and take rounds, also has a grappling adv, submission is live.
Adesanya back at his normal weight, huge striking adv. people think vettori will just be able to do what Jan did but i think we saw where the size adv played a huge part. Dont see Isreal getting bullied the same here. Odds just a bit high for me to play him though.
Andy
Pretty much a regular
Getting caught up after some time at the pool today. Thought I had a draw with vendramini, but 10-8 3rd was being a little hopeful. One judge agreed. Not sure why Luigi didn't press forward more and try to control it earlier. Ziam didn't seem like he was gonna get a ko with the game plan he was using. Obv ziam improved his takedown Def which maybe led to Luigi being cautious early. But man, that 3rd rnd. What could have been. Oh well, won't sweat a pkem line close Dec loss.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
It was all even into 3rd and hes got so much power and won the 2nd, he just changed style so quick, I liked the reasoning you had and just no way to factor in him falling apart like that
Get fig for a winning night
