Real simple approach : Fresh start goal is to be +100 without ever really having more then 5 u on a play....by the end of the month!
Sides/Totals 1-0 +2.67u
1st Q: -1.55u
1st H: +0.50
2nd H -0.65
Here's my take and some thoughts in my 1-1-2007 thread on monday nite.
Clippers @ Orlando :
It appears both teams are righting the ship so to speak. However while LAC has gone just 2-10 away it also has not played @ an Eastern Conference foe yet. Before the heat blowut the DOG had covered 12 straight times in an Orlando Magic game...Thank BetCrimes for puttingthis angle on my radar. I say that this is IMO a great indicator of misperception of a team..and in ORL's case solidifies my thoughts of how the betting public always finds value in ORL nomatter how poorly they are playing. I digress....Orl might be w/o Hill and Dooling and are 4-4 SU past 8 at home..beating shorthanded Philly and NO teams barely, beating up on a shorthanded Miami team and defeating bad road team Cleveland but as home dogs..So looking at playing Clippers +5 (some ML +178 for value) and even an over possibly...as I owuld expect this game to be played in the low to mid 90's...
Spurs @ Cavs:
As I have bee saying the biggest factor here is figuring out SA's mindset in payback situations. They have already spanked 2 teams they lost to in 2007. Regardless of that though I feel this lean is INFLATED...worst case I could see SA -1.5 but not 3.5/4. Cleveland spanked them last year at home where they ahve a great home court advantage now and have gone 3-2 SU past 5 in Cle including a narrow 2 point loss. Believe LeBron dropped 44 at home in this game...Cavs are 13-3(9-2 L11) L16 as home dogs. Home team is 4-1 ATS , Spurs are 1-4 ATS in Cle and DOG is 5-2 ATS in the series recently. SA has been playing its best ball of late and that is a plus for Cavs backers.. SA has been between -2.5 to -4.5 to a hostof teams on the road and none appear better then Cle is at home..cavs can rebound with SA and Spurs lately seem to have no answer for LeBron...Really like Cavs +4 (ML +150for value) and an over..
Golden State @ New Orleans:
Well I can say for sure I have no idea why the line went from 3 to 5. I understand how a depleted NO team must be a dog but GS is 3-11 away with injuries of their own! The Hornets have struggled vs elite teams but against medicore or worse they have been fine at home...Ellis looks out leaving Davis and MacLeod as the starting backcourt with Richardson and Roberson also out!!! Without much thought and great concern I really like NO +5 -105 / ML +175...no real opinion on the total maybe an under with so many missing..but no interest! Home team 9-1 SU past 10 meetings...
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>New Orleans</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
With Hinrich IN I owuld have loved Chicago here but still like them. In my opinion PHO was very lucky to walk away with a win in DET , let alone the cover! RASHEED WALLACE...what was he thinking that after each miss he was due? 4/17FGs and 0/7 2pters...oh yeah if your missing your jumpers try to getto the line right...2/2 FT's. Anyway CHI is so tough at home and PHO hasnt exactly coasted vs any Eastern teams...see NJ , See Boston ...and so on..Like the Under 214 here and the Bulls....+4 -106 and ML +150
Seattle @ Dallas:
Waiting to get more info on Diggler and Stackhouse but leans Sonics +11 and over 192...
Philly @ Denver: Sixers +7.5 -110 {5units} ML +250{1/2u}
Simply put ridiculous line! They are playing into the AI versus his former team hype...uhmm I knwo AI is better butisnt this Andre Millers former team as well?? Isnt Philly surrounding pieces especially if Webber makes ana appearance much better then Denvers surrounding pieces?? Simply pu if Den is only -7.5 to a depleted Sonics and Boston -6 how can they be this big versus Philly...its simple logic...this should be about -5.5 but cause of AI you may to much...Nuggs are 2-3 with AI and 2-1 at home culd have they faced two more shorthanded teams then Seattle and Denver?? I owuld expect a great effort from the Sixers here...remember AI is a ballhog...thinking an over with little defense being played...
Knicks @ Kings:
Not sure anyone can justify the Knicks or an over but thats how it sets up..really not into this game yet will look at sometime after the games start tonite. Basically I could see -7 here but holy Inflation!!! Knicks or pass @ +9.5 +101 / ML +445
Thats about all!! In summary all DOGS look attractive and all overs except the Under in Chicago and passes on Kings total and New Orleans total.....
The NEW BALL: basically playing with the old ball for so long it really should be a very short adjustment period for players...overs dont concern me with the new ball...I think its not a big deal...I play basketball innumerous leagues...different courts every nite and different balls...you sort of get used to each after playing there...muscle memory in a way...that after a few warms ups get the feel back..so I expect most players to be comfortable with it...unless its a mental thing!
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Sides/Totals 1-0 +2.67u
1st Q: -1.55u
1st H: +0.50
2nd H -0.65
Here's my take and some thoughts in my 1-1-2007 thread on monday nite.
Clippers @ Orlando :
It appears both teams are righting the ship so to speak. However while LAC has gone just 2-10 away it also has not played @ an Eastern Conference foe yet. Before the heat blowut the DOG had covered 12 straight times in an Orlando Magic game...Thank BetCrimes for puttingthis angle on my radar. I say that this is IMO a great indicator of misperception of a team..and in ORL's case solidifies my thoughts of how the betting public always finds value in ORL nomatter how poorly they are playing. I digress....Orl might be w/o Hill and Dooling and are 4-4 SU past 8 at home..beating shorthanded Philly and NO teams barely, beating up on a shorthanded Miami team and defeating bad road team Cleveland but as home dogs..So looking at playing Clippers +5 (some ML +178 for value) and even an over possibly...as I owuld expect this game to be played in the low to mid 90's...
Spurs @ Cavs:
As I have bee saying the biggest factor here is figuring out SA's mindset in payback situations. They have already spanked 2 teams they lost to in 2007. Regardless of that though I feel this lean is INFLATED...worst case I could see SA -1.5 but not 3.5/4. Cleveland spanked them last year at home where they ahve a great home court advantage now and have gone 3-2 SU past 5 in Cle including a narrow 2 point loss. Believe LeBron dropped 44 at home in this game...Cavs are 13-3(9-2 L11) L16 as home dogs. Home team is 4-1 ATS , Spurs are 1-4 ATS in Cle and DOG is 5-2 ATS in the series recently. SA has been playing its best ball of late and that is a plus for Cavs backers.. SA has been between -2.5 to -4.5 to a hostof teams on the road and none appear better then Cle is at home..cavs can rebound with SA and Spurs lately seem to have no answer for LeBron...Really like Cavs +4 (ML +150for value) and an over..
Golden State @ New Orleans:
Well I can say for sure I have no idea why the line went from 3 to 5. I understand how a depleted NO team must be a dog but GS is 3-11 away with injuries of their own! The Hornets have struggled vs elite teams but against medicore or worse they have been fine at home...Ellis looks out leaving Davis and MacLeod as the starting backcourt with Richardson and Roberson also out!!! Without much thought and great concern I really like NO +5 -105 / ML +175...no real opinion on the total maybe an under with so many missing..but no interest! Home team 9-1 SU past 10 meetings...
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>New Orleans</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
- <LI class=more>Hornets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. <LI class=more>Hornets are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Hornets are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 2 days rest.
With Hinrich IN I owuld have loved Chicago here but still like them. In my opinion PHO was very lucky to walk away with a win in DET , let alone the cover! RASHEED WALLACE...what was he thinking that after each miss he was due? 4/17FGs and 0/7 2pters...oh yeah if your missing your jumpers try to getto the line right...2/2 FT's. Anyway CHI is so tough at home and PHO hasnt exactly coasted vs any Eastern teams...see NJ , See Boston ...and so on..Like the Under 214 here and the Bulls....+4 -106 and ML +150
Seattle @ Dallas:
Waiting to get more info on Diggler and Stackhouse but leans Sonics +11 and over 192...
Philly @ Denver: Sixers +7.5 -110 {5units} ML +250{1/2u}
Simply put ridiculous line! They are playing into the AI versus his former team hype...uhmm I knwo AI is better butisnt this Andre Millers former team as well?? Isnt Philly surrounding pieces especially if Webber makes ana appearance much better then Denvers surrounding pieces?? Simply pu if Den is only -7.5 to a depleted Sonics and Boston -6 how can they be this big versus Philly...its simple logic...this should be about -5.5 but cause of AI you may to much...Nuggs are 2-3 with AI and 2-1 at home culd have they faced two more shorthanded teams then Seattle and Denver?? I owuld expect a great effort from the Sixers here...remember AI is a ballhog...thinking an over with little defense being played...
Knicks @ Kings:
Not sure anyone can justify the Knicks or an over but thats how it sets up..really not into this game yet will look at sometime after the games start tonite. Basically I could see -7 here but holy Inflation!!! Knicks or pass @ +9.5 +101 / ML +445
Thats about all!! In summary all DOGS look attractive and all overs except the Under in Chicago and passes on Kings total and New Orleans total.....
The NEW BALL: basically playing with the old ball for so long it really should be a very short adjustment period for players...overs dont concern me with the new ball...I think its not a big deal...I play basketball innumerous leagues...different courts every nite and different balls...you sort of get used to each after playing there...muscle memory in a way...that after a few warms ups get the feel back..so I expect most players to be comfortable with it...unless its a mental thing!
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