NBA 2024-25 Post-Road Trip ATS Results

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures for the last 20 seasons (sans Covid-19 venue-affected '20-21) are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 741-799-31 ....... -58

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 693-820-23 ....... -125


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.12% vs. 45.80% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Please note:

(1) Where 5+ days of rest breaks up a team's road trip, or breaks up a team's return game/games, all normally applicable games following that break have been excluded.

(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.

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Teams off 4 game road trips

1st Game Back - Eastern teams


Overall ...................................... 188-202-11


As the Fav ..................................... 118-128-5
As the Dog ..................................... 70-74-6

vs. Conference teams ............. 121-127-10
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 67-75-1


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 83-83-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 38-44-5

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 35-45
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 32-30-1


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ...................................... 218-220-11


As the Fav ..................................... 159-150-9
As the Dog ..................................... 59-70-2

vs. Conference teams ................. 129-127-8
vs. non-Conference teams .......... 89-93-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 88-84-7
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 41-43-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 71-66-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 18-27-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ...................................... 104-141-6
Road game ........................................... 62-80-3


@Home as a Fav ................................... 63-83-4
@Home as a Dog ................................. 41-58-2

on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-21-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 46-59-1


@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 72-83-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 32-58-5

on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 53-72-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 9-8


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 42-52-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 30-31

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-31-3
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 11-27-2

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-20-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 38-52-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 8-7


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..................................... 143-162-5
Road game ......................................... 65-61-1


@Home as a Fav .................................. 100-122-1
@Home as a Dog .................................. 43-40-1

on the Road as a Fav ............................ 19-12
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 46-49-1


@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 90-106-5
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 53-56

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 42-52-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 23-9


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 64-80-4
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 26-26-1

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 36-42
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 17-14

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-11
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 29-41-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 6-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 17-8

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Teams off 5+ game road trips

1st Game Back - Eastern teams


Overall .............................................. 164-187-3


As the Fav ........................................ 106-126-3
As the Dog ........................................ 58-61

vs. Conference teams ................. 102-111-1
vs. non-Conference teams .......... 62-76-2


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 66-72-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 36-39

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 40-54-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 22-22


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................................... 171-190-6


As the Fav ......................................... 113-138-4
As the Dog ......................................... 58-52-2

vs. Conference teams .................. 100-110-1
vs. non-Conference teams ........... 71-80-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 62-73-2
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 38-37-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 51-65-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 20-15-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ..................................... 118-108-5
Road game ....................................... 51-67-1


@Home as a Fav .................................. 78-73-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 40-35-2

on the Road as a Fav .......................... 18-11-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 33-56


@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 74-76-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 44-32-1

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 44-61-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 7-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 52-54-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 22-22-2

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 26-19-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 18-13

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 14-10-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 30-51

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 3-5


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ....................................... 108-140-2
Road game ........................................... 42-61-2


@Home as a Fav ..................................... 74-89-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 34-51

on the Road as a Fav ............................. 14-16
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 28-45-2


@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 70-91-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 38-49

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 35-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 7-7-1


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 46-53-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 24-38

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 28-36
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 10-13

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 12-13
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 23-41-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 2-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1

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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 20 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.38%
Split results ..... 48.57%
Lose both ...... 29.05%


Off 5+ game road trips (last 20 seasons, not incl. venue-affected '20-21)
Win both ......... 22.87%
Split results ..... 46.87%
Lose both ...... 30.26%
 
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November

NOR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs. IND - Won
3rd - Home Fave vs. ATL - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. TOR -
Won
8th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Lost

BOS off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. GS -
Lost
8th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Lost

NYK off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. MIL - Won

10th - Road Fave vs. IND - Lost

ORL off a 5 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won
10th - Home Fave vs. WAS - Won

LAL off a 5 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. PHI - Won

10th - Home Fave vs. TOR - Won

POR off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Dog vs. MEM - Lost
12th - Home Dog vs. MIN - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
12th - Home Dog vs. PHX - Lost

14th - Home Dog vs. DAL - Won

GS off a 5 game trip
12th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Won
15th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost

TOR off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. DET - Lost

16th - Road Dog vs. BOS - Won

WAS off a 5 game trip
17th - Home Dog vs. DET - Lost

18th - Road Dog vs. NYK - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
18th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Lost
20th - Home Dog vs. NYK - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Dog vs. NYK - Won
26th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Lost

ATL off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost

27th - Road Dog vs. CLE - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
29th - Home Dog vs. SAC - Won
1st - Home Dog vs. DAL - Lost
 
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December

NYK off a 5 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won
3rd - Home Fave vs. ORL - Won

TOR off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs. MIA - Won
3rd - Home Dog vs. IND - Won

LAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs. DEN -
Won
3rd - Home Fave vs. POR - Won

OKC off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. UTH - Won

5th - Road Fave vs. TOR - Won

LAL off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. POR -
No 2nd game due to break

IND off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. CHA -
No 2nd game due to break


ORL off a 5 game trip
8th - Home vs. PHX -
No 2nd game due to break


DEN off a 5 game trip
23rd - Home Fave vs. PHX -
25th - Road vs. PHX -


UTH off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. PHI -
30th - Home vs. DEN -

SAS off a 4 game trip
31st - Home vs. LAC -
3rd - Road Dog vs. DEN -
 
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January

DET off a 4 game trip
1st - Home vs. ORL -
3rd - Home vs. CHA -

DAL off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. CLE -
6th - Road vs. MIN -

CLE off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. CHA -
8th - Home vs. OKC -


PHI off a 6 game trip
6th - Home vs. PHX -
8th - Home Fave vs. WAS -

MEM off a 5 game trip
6th - Home vs. DAL -
9th - Home vs. HOU -


BOS off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs. SAC -
12th - Home Fave vs. NOR -


POR off a 5 game trip
11th - Home vs. MIA -
14th - Home vs. BRK -

ATL off a 6 game trip
11th - Home vs. HOU -
14th - Home vs. PHX -


OKC off a 4 game trip
16th - Home vs. CLE -
17th - Road vs. DAL -


MIA off a 6 game trip
17th - Home vs. DEN -
19th - Home Fave vs. SAS -


GS off a 4 game trip
18th - Home vs. WAS -
20th - Home vs. BOS -


CHA off a 5 game trip
20th - Home vs. DAL -
22nd - Road vs. MEM -

BRK off a 6 game trip
21st - Home vs. NYK -
22nd - Home vs. PHX -

PHX off a 5 game trip
25th - Home Fave vs. WAS -
27th - Home vs. LAC -


BOS off a 4 game trip
27th - Home Fave vs. HOU -
29th - Home Fave vs. CHC -


WAS off a 6 game trip
29th - Home vs. TOR -
30th - Home vs. LAL -

DET off a 5 game trip
31st - Home vs. DAL -
2nd - Home vs. CHC -
 
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February

MIL off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home vs. MEM -
3rd - Road Dog vs. OKC -

LAC off a 4 game trip
4th - Home vs. LAL -
6th - Home vs. IND -


SAC off a 6 game trip
5th - Home vs. ORL -
6th - Road vs. POR -


ATL off a 4 game trip
5th - Home vs. SAS -
7th - Home vs. MIL -


LAL off a 6 game trip
6th - Home vs. GS -
8th - Home vs. IND -


PHX off a 4 game trip
7th - Home vs. UTH -
8th - Home vs. DEN -


DAL off a 5 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. HOU -
10th - Home Fave vs. SAC -

ORL off a 6 game trip
8th - Home vs. SAS -
10th - Home vs. ATL -


HOU off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. TOR -
12th - Home vs. PHX -

MIA off a 4 game trip
10th - Home vs. BOS -
12th - Road Dog vs. OKC -

IND off a 4 game trip
11th - Home vs. NYK -
12th - Road Dog vs. WAS -
 
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March

CHA off a 5 game trip
1st - Home vs. WAS -
3rd - Home vs. GS -


SAS off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home vs. OKC -
4th - Home vs. BRK -

MIN off a 4 game trip
4th - Home Fave vs. PHI -
5th - Road vs. CHA -

DEN off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. SAC -
7th - Home Fave vs. PHX -


LAC off a 7 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. DET -
7th - Home Fave vs. NYK -


NOR off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. HOU -
8th - Road Dog vs. HOU -


TOR off a 4 game trip
7th - Home vs. UTH -
8th - Home vs. WAS -


SAC off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. SAS -
9th - Road Dog vs. LAC -


GS off a 5 game trip
8th - Home Fave vs. DET -
10th - Home Fave vs. POR -

POR off a 7 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. DET -
10th - Road Dog vs. GS -

UTH off a 5 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. TOR -
16th - Road Dog vs. MIN -


PHX off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. SAC -
16th - Road vs. LAL -

LAL off a 4 game trip
16th - Home vs. PHX -
18th - Home vs. MIL -


NYK off a 5 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. MIA -
19th - Road vs. SAS -

WAS off a 7 game trip
21st - Home Fave vs. ORL -
22nd - Road Dog vs. NYK -


TOR off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home vs. SAS -
24th - Road Dog vs. WAS -

DEN off a 4 game trip
24th - Home Fave vs. CHC -
26th - Home Fave vs. MIL -


PHI off a 6 game trip
26th - Home Fave vs. WAS -
29th - Home Fave vs. MIA -

CLE off a 5 game trip
27th - Home vs. SAS -
28th - Road Dog vs. DET -

CHC off a 6 game trip
27th - Home vs. LAL -
29th - Home vs. DAL -

MIL off a 5 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. NYK -
30th - Home Fave vs. ATL -


LAC off a 5 game trip
29th - Home vs. LAL -
31st - Home vs. BOS -


DAL off a 4 game trip
31st - Home Fave vs. BRK -
2nd - Home Fave vs. ATL -

LAL off a 4 game trip
31st - Home vs. HOU -
3rd - Home vs. GS -
 
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April

LAC off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home vs. NOR -
4th - Home vs. DAL -


BOS off a 6 game trip
2nd - Home Fave vs. MIA -
4th - Home Fave vs. PHX -

GS off a 6 game trip
4th - Home vs. DEN -
6th - Home vs. HOU -

POR off a 5 game trip
6th - Home vs. SAS -
9th - Road vs. UTH -

SAC off a 6 game trip
9th - Home vs. DEN -
11th - Home vs. LAC -

UTH off a 5 game trip
9th - Home vs. POR -
11th - Home vs. OKC -

MIN off a 5 game trip
11th - Home vs. BRK -
13th - Home vs. UTH -

ATL off a 6 game trip
13th - Home vs. NOR -
No 2nd game


SAS off a 4 game trip
13th - Home vs. TOR -
No 2nd game


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Overall results for the 2024-25 season

Off 4 game trips
Won-Won ..........
Split Results ......
Lost-Lost ............

Off 5+ game trips
Won-Won ..........
Split Results ......
Lost-Lost ............

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ........
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ......

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .....
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ...

Combined Results


Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .....
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ...
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The schedule makers have been cruel to a number of teams who face b2b fixtures after finishing 4+ game road trips
(Note: opponents underlined in bolded blue are also playing the second game of a b2b spot)...

Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 1 day's rest since their trip's end

WAS off a 5 game trip
Nov. 17th - Home vs. DET - Lost
Nov. 18th - Road vs. NYK - Lost

OKC off a 4 game trip
Jan. 16th - Home vs. CLE -
Jan. 17th - Road vs. DAL -


BRK off a 6 game trip
Jan. 21st - Home vs.
NYK -
Jan. 22nd - Home vs. PHX -

WAS off a 6 game trip
Jan. 29th - Home vs. TOR -
Jan. 30th - Home vs. LAL -


MIL off a 4 game trip
Feb. 2nd - Home vs. MEM -
Feb. 3rd - Road vs. OKC -


SAC off a 6 game trip
Feb. 5th - Home vs. ORL -
Feb. 6th - Road vs. POR -


PHX off a 4 game trip
Feb. 7th - Home vs. UTH -
Feb. 8th - Home vs. DEN -


NOR off a 4 game trip
Feb. 12th - Home vs. SAC -
Feb. 13th - Home vs.
SAC -

PHX off a 4 game trip
Feb. 27th - Home vs. NOR -
Feb. 28th - Home vs.
NOR -

MIN off a 4 game trip
Mar. 4th - Home vs.
PHI -
Mar. 5th - Road vs. CHA -


POR off a 7 game trip
Mar. 9th - Home vs. DET -
Mar. 10th - Road vs. GS -

CLE off a 5 game trip
Mar. 27th - Home vs. SAS -
Mar. 28th - Road vs. DET -



Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 2+ days rest since their trip's end

TOR off a 5 game trip
Nov. 15th - Home vs. DET - Lost
Nov. 16th - Road vs. BOS - Won

IND off a 4 game trip
Feb. 11th - Home vs. NYK -
Feb. 12th - Road vs. WAS -

TOR off a 4 game trip
Mar. 7th - Home vs. UTH -
Mar. 8th - Home vs. WAS -


WAS off a 7 game trip
Mar. 21st - Home vs. ORL -
Mar. 22nd - Road vs. NYK -


TOR off a 4 game trip
Mar. 23rd - Home vs. SAS -
Mar. 24th - Road vs. WAS -



Overall results (last 27 seasons, not incl. Covid-affected '20-21)

1st game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip:.. 128-150-6 .... 46.04% win rate
2nd game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip: 124-154-6 .... 44.60% win rate

Either b2b game off any rest vs. opponent NOT playing b2b: 180-231-8 ... 43.80% win rate
Either b2b game off any rest vs. an opponent playing b2b:....... 72-73-4 ...... 49.65% win rate


1st Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 50-65-4
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 44-47-1
Overall: 94-112-4

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 11-24-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 23-14
Overall: 34-38-1


2nd Game Back


1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 47-57-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 39-62-2
Overall: 86-119-3 ... a 41.95% win rate.

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 23-18-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 15-17-2
Overall: 38-35-3 ... a 52.05% win rate


Result Sequences (do not include those involving Pushes)

Sequence ......... W-W ... W-L ... L-W ... L-L
1 day of rest ...... 32 ........ 27 ...... 36 ..... 47
2+ days rest ...... 35 ........ 30 ...... 14 ..... 50

Looking at these results within each rest grouping, the most notable stat to emerge is -

Teams who have lost their 1st game off short rest have lost their 2nd game at a 56.62% rate,
but off longer rest have lost their subsequent game at a much higher 78.12% rate.

It's definitely worth paying some attention to the result of the 1st game when trying
to ascertain what's worth betting for the 2nd game in longer rest situations.
 
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With the new schedule idea of teams playing back to back road games at the same site, wonder how that will affect this
 
With the new schedule idea of teams playing back to back road games at the same site, wonder how that will affect this

(2) When a team off such a road trip played both 1st & 2nd games back at home against the same opponent, that team's results are excluded.
 
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