Its funny how life works isnt it....probably my best 2 day spurt in the NBA over the weekend where I tally 50++ units to only fall flat on my face due to trying to push the envelope and dropping half of that back on Monday...thats why its always a marthon and more about what your gonna do tmmrw then what you did yesterday..There were spots I liked and I have no regrets other then posting the doo-doo...most of us were thinking the same way....
Also I think we all know about BillIvy's mass exodus from Covers. I would think everything will go alot smoother here if everyone just simply puts it behind them and moves on. No bashing the old site and simply ' fit in ' to this forum. Its a fun place that appreciates everyone's contributions plain and simple.....
So lets get back to work..
My ratings system is simple: Small = 1unit , Medium = 2units , Large = 4 units , XLarge +5 units. Whne I play dogs I like to have a piece of the ML so the phrase value play would mean essentially a wager 1/8 the size of my spread bet..questions please ask.....?
Denver @ Atlanta
Now alot if not all of the credit goes to BAR for finding this spot. However it seems everyone has realized now what a great bounce back spot this was for Denver. This is something stuck out to me...
The Nuggets (11-7) have been terrible in Atlanta, losing 15 of their last 16 visits to the city. Denver's 100-96 win on Feb. 15, 2005, was its first in Atlanta since the 1988-89 season. Overall, the Hawks (8-12) have won nine of the last 12 meetings between the teams
That is something I owuld have hoped keep the line down...
This is actually the 2nd time a team comes to A-T-L with revenge on there minds. See what Clev did to the Hawks a few games laying -3.5....We had a conversation of where this line would open assuming JJ was playing I felt 3 or 3.5 would be fair with the possibility it could be a shaded a 1/2 more on either side(low end -2.5 or high end -4). It opened -3.5 and has exploded to 6...
I think when Joe Johnson misses a game its clearly something that is fairly serious. However I would rather a gimpy JJ play to keep the line down but play less then what we have come to expect from him...Plus the Hawks were in that dangerous spot of returning home from a West Coast trip (5 gamer).
At this point I am begininng to wonder if the Hawks are starting to look attractive?? They were tied versus Cle after 3 quarters before shitting the bed in the 4th Q and falling by 11....as I said this is basically the same spot / situation as that game.
Now the Hawks have Marvin Williams working his way back into playing form , Salim Stoudamire is a scorer in my book while a different player then JJ he is similair in some fashions , and ZaZa who was suspended the 1st game. The main reasons DEN lost to ATL blowing a 14 pt lead was inabilty to hit a shot but really and inabilityto make FT's...16/33!!
Denver has played well on the road but up until this point has been undervalued in those situations. So looking at 6 is fairly high.
Going to try and wait and see whats up with JJ , I would rather seem him play and see the line adjust downward for his return to make a play on Denver....what I am looking at is the 1st Half over (105 +100)
I didnt watch the 1st meeting and was wondering IF JJ was guarding Carmelo, if he wasnt who was( I am assuming it was Josh Smith)? Since Melo hasnt played especially well versus ATL wanted to see if it was possibly attributed to who was guarding him..?? That would naturally add to JJ loss if it had been him but as I said assuming it was Josh Smith...
Play: Denver -3.5 -108 1st Half (Medium)
Seattle @ Milw
Last nite my first instinct was Over..?? Then I noticed Milw is actually more of an Under team at home with lower average scores. While Sea will be w/o its main scorer Ray Allen but very vital IMO is Earl Watson's status listed as Questionable with back pains..also for MILW Villanueva has showed up as QUES as well with Elbow woes again...
If Earl Watson doesnt play how BAD is Seattle's bench...Petro , Wilks , Gelabale...??
The Sonics have been a great DOG this year on the road but I would suggest the losses of Allen and Watson (along with Fortson's continued absence) would be just to great to overcome on the road. Especially since they havent traveled w/o Allen yet this season...
So we need an injury update before I go further...Looking at an Under 206.5 , Under 102 1st half , Bucks -4.5 and / or Sonics +2.5 1st Half....
LAL @ Houston
We know TMac is OUT here. We also know that LAL is in a great sandwich spot here...home win(upset) vs SA , travel to face shorthanded Hous , with game @ Dallas on deck..
I mentioned to RedBearde late last nite how the Rockets being favored even w/o Mac isnt as ODD as it looks. We have to remember this LAL team has been DOGGED to LAC twice , was dogged by 4.5 at home to the Spurs and generally hasnt traveled much at all this year. So if your catching 5 pts at home it suggests alot about your teams overall value / strength ...its very logical to think it would only mean LAL is road chalk versus the bottomfeeders of the NBA..Char , Port , etc...Also look at how big Houston spreads ahve been at home...they have mostly been slightily overvalued cause of how tough they are to defeat at home...so if TMac played I would NOT have been suprised to see 6 pt spread here..or in that realm....
Basically I feel Hou is peaking ...they just played 4 in 5 and walked away winning @ Houston as chalk...which basically was all on Mings shoulder with ahuge 4th Q....is he not the most improved player in the NBA ? They have a supporting cast that dosnt have aging vets and Bonzi Wells could he get some PT here...wouldnt count on much though..
Since I feel Hous wins it must play there type of game and feed Ming in the post. The rockets have held opps to 40% shooting at home but only 36% last 5 games!!!Hous seems to be consistently in the mid to upper 80's lately and even at low 90's and a Hous cover means an UNDER...
Play: Houston -2 -110 (XLarge) , Under 184 -110 (Medium)
Sac @ GS
For some reason I am little baffled this line has moved off -3. The Kings have just a 2-6 away record and havent looked like anything special of late.
GS went through a down period as they were thin due to injuries biut outside of Richardson they seem healthy again...Baron , Murphy , Pietrus all missed some time at one point. GS has been tough at home already owning a win over SAC this season when Baron Davis had something like 10 dimes in the 1st Q....the 1st meeting Miller missed while Jrich played and Murphy didnt....
Here Artest has a somewhat sprained ankle that could affect him here...
Basically I just dont see what makes Sac attractive here.....generally SAC has been the better team the past decade :
<LI class=morecool>Kings are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State. <LI class=morecool>Kings are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
GS is much like Pho with there up tempo pace and probably plays less defense...so the fact the Kings were lit up for 127 makes me very comfortable in thinking GS cracks 110....
-Over is 21-8 in Warriors last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Warriors only 69.6% from the FT line at home need to improve on that...they do shot nearly 49% from the floor and Sac allows 49% from the floor on the road....
The keys to an OVER here IMO are three pt FG percentage , FT percentage and competiveness of the game.....
Of the past 12 home games GS has scored 100 + in 8 , 106 0r 107 in 2 others and a 91 vs Utah.....and 101 in a blowout vs NO..
On 1 day rest....
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b> </TD><TD class=datahl2 colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>SAC</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>95.0</TD><TD class=datacell>90.0</TD><TD class=datacell>185.0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>GS</TD><TD class=datacell>7-5</TD><TD class=datacell>8-4-0</TD><TD class=datacell>110.2</TD><TD class=datacell>107.9</TD><TD class=datacell>218.1</TD><TD class=datacell>9-3
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So lean GS -2.5 -108 here......
Looking at Over 213 , Over 107.5 1st Half , Ov 108 -111 GS team
Also I think we all know about BillIvy's mass exodus from Covers. I would think everything will go alot smoother here if everyone just simply puts it behind them and moves on. No bashing the old site and simply ' fit in ' to this forum. Its a fun place that appreciates everyone's contributions plain and simple.....
So lets get back to work..
My ratings system is simple: Small = 1unit , Medium = 2units , Large = 4 units , XLarge +5 units. Whne I play dogs I like to have a piece of the ML so the phrase value play would mean essentially a wager 1/8 the size of my spread bet..questions please ask.....?
Denver @ Atlanta
Now alot if not all of the credit goes to BAR for finding this spot. However it seems everyone has realized now what a great bounce back spot this was for Denver. This is something stuck out to me...
The Nuggets (11-7) have been terrible in Atlanta, losing 15 of their last 16 visits to the city. Denver's 100-96 win on Feb. 15, 2005, was its first in Atlanta since the 1988-89 season. Overall, the Hawks (8-12) have won nine of the last 12 meetings between the teams
That is something I owuld have hoped keep the line down...
This is actually the 2nd time a team comes to A-T-L with revenge on there minds. See what Clev did to the Hawks a few games laying -3.5....We had a conversation of where this line would open assuming JJ was playing I felt 3 or 3.5 would be fair with the possibility it could be a shaded a 1/2 more on either side(low end -2.5 or high end -4). It opened -3.5 and has exploded to 6...
I think when Joe Johnson misses a game its clearly something that is fairly serious. However I would rather a gimpy JJ play to keep the line down but play less then what we have come to expect from him...Plus the Hawks were in that dangerous spot of returning home from a West Coast trip (5 gamer).
At this point I am begininng to wonder if the Hawks are starting to look attractive?? They were tied versus Cle after 3 quarters before shitting the bed in the 4th Q and falling by 11....as I said this is basically the same spot / situation as that game.
Now the Hawks have Marvin Williams working his way back into playing form , Salim Stoudamire is a scorer in my book while a different player then JJ he is similair in some fashions , and ZaZa who was suspended the 1st game. The main reasons DEN lost to ATL blowing a 14 pt lead was inabilty to hit a shot but really and inabilityto make FT's...16/33!!
Denver has played well on the road but up until this point has been undervalued in those situations. So looking at 6 is fairly high.
Going to try and wait and see whats up with JJ , I would rather seem him play and see the line adjust downward for his return to make a play on Denver....what I am looking at is the 1st Half over (105 +100)
I didnt watch the 1st meeting and was wondering IF JJ was guarding Carmelo, if he wasnt who was( I am assuming it was Josh Smith)? Since Melo hasnt played especially well versus ATL wanted to see if it was possibly attributed to who was guarding him..?? That would naturally add to JJ loss if it had been him but as I said assuming it was Josh Smith...
Play: Denver -3.5 -108 1st Half (Medium)
Seattle @ Milw
Last nite my first instinct was Over..?? Then I noticed Milw is actually more of an Under team at home with lower average scores. While Sea will be w/o its main scorer Ray Allen but very vital IMO is Earl Watson's status listed as Questionable with back pains..also for MILW Villanueva has showed up as QUES as well with Elbow woes again...
If Earl Watson doesnt play how BAD is Seattle's bench...Petro , Wilks , Gelabale...??
The Sonics have been a great DOG this year on the road but I would suggest the losses of Allen and Watson (along with Fortson's continued absence) would be just to great to overcome on the road. Especially since they havent traveled w/o Allen yet this season...
So we need an injury update before I go further...Looking at an Under 206.5 , Under 102 1st half , Bucks -4.5 and / or Sonics +2.5 1st Half....
LAL @ Houston
We know TMac is OUT here. We also know that LAL is in a great sandwich spot here...home win(upset) vs SA , travel to face shorthanded Hous , with game @ Dallas on deck..
I mentioned to RedBearde late last nite how the Rockets being favored even w/o Mac isnt as ODD as it looks. We have to remember this LAL team has been DOGGED to LAC twice , was dogged by 4.5 at home to the Spurs and generally hasnt traveled much at all this year. So if your catching 5 pts at home it suggests alot about your teams overall value / strength ...its very logical to think it would only mean LAL is road chalk versus the bottomfeeders of the NBA..Char , Port , etc...Also look at how big Houston spreads ahve been at home...they have mostly been slightily overvalued cause of how tough they are to defeat at home...so if TMac played I would NOT have been suprised to see 6 pt spread here..or in that realm....
Basically I feel Hou is peaking ...they just played 4 in 5 and walked away winning @ Houston as chalk...which basically was all on Mings shoulder with ahuge 4th Q....is he not the most improved player in the NBA ? They have a supporting cast that dosnt have aging vets and Bonzi Wells could he get some PT here...wouldnt count on much though..
Since I feel Hous wins it must play there type of game and feed Ming in the post. The rockets have held opps to 40% shooting at home but only 36% last 5 games!!!Hous seems to be consistently in the mid to upper 80's lately and even at low 90's and a Hous cover means an UNDER...
Play: Houston -2 -110 (XLarge) , Under 184 -110 (Medium)
Sac @ GS
For some reason I am little baffled this line has moved off -3. The Kings have just a 2-6 away record and havent looked like anything special of late.
GS went through a down period as they were thin due to injuries biut outside of Richardson they seem healthy again...Baron , Murphy , Pietrus all missed some time at one point. GS has been tough at home already owning a win over SAC this season when Baron Davis had something like 10 dimes in the 1st Q....the 1st meeting Miller missed while Jrich played and Murphy didnt....
Here Artest has a somewhat sprained ankle that could affect him here...
Basically I just dont see what makes Sac attractive here.....generally SAC has been the better team the past decade :
<LI class=morecool>Kings are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State. <LI class=morecool>Kings are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
GS is much like Pho with there up tempo pace and probably plays less defense...so the fact the Kings were lit up for 127 makes me very comfortable in thinking GS cracks 110....
-Over is 21-8 in Warriors last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Warriors only 69.6% from the FT line at home need to improve on that...they do shot nearly 49% from the floor and Sac allows 49% from the floor on the road....
The keys to an OVER here IMO are three pt FG percentage , FT percentage and competiveness of the game.....
Of the past 12 home games GS has scored 100 + in 8 , 106 0r 107 in 2 others and a 91 vs Utah.....and 101 in a blowout vs NO..
On 1 day rest....
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b> </TD><TD class=datahl2 colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>SAC</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>95.0</TD><TD class=datacell>90.0</TD><TD class=datacell>185.0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>GS</TD><TD class=datacell>7-5</TD><TD class=datacell>8-4-0</TD><TD class=datacell>110.2</TD><TD class=datacell>107.9</TD><TD class=datacell>218.1</TD><TD class=datacell>9-3
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So lean GS -2.5 -108 here......
Looking at Over 213 , Over 107.5 1st Half , Ov 108 -111 GS team
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