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Tuesday NBA

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Its funny how life works isnt it....probably my best 2 day spurt in the NBA over the weekend where I tally 50++ units to only fall flat on my face due to trying to push the envelope and dropping half of that back on Monday...thats why its always a marthon and more about what your gonna do tmmrw then what you did yesterday..There were spots I liked and I have no regrets other then posting the doo-doo...most of us were thinking the same way....

Also I think we all know about BillIvy's mass exodus from Covers. I would think everything will go alot smoother here if everyone just simply puts it behind them and moves on. No bashing the old site and simply ' fit in ' to this forum. Its a fun place that appreciates everyone's contributions plain and simple.....

So lets get back to work..

My ratings system is simple: Small = 1unit , Medium = 2units , Large = 4 units , XLarge +5 units. Whne I play dogs I like to have a piece of the ML so the phrase value play would mean essentially a wager 1/8 the size of my spread bet..questions please ask.....?

Denver @ Atlanta

Now alot if not all of the credit goes to BAR for finding this spot. However it seems everyone has realized now what a great bounce back spot this was for Denver. This is something stuck out to me...


The Nuggets (11-7) have been terrible in Atlanta, losing 15 of their last 16 visits to the city. Denver's 100-96 win on Feb. 15, 2005, was its first in Atlanta since the 1988-89 season. Overall, the Hawks (8-12) have won nine of the last 12 meetings between the teams

That is something I owuld have hoped keep the line down...

This is actually the 2nd time a team comes to A-T-L with revenge on there minds. See what Clev did to the Hawks a few games laying -3.5....We had a conversation of where this line would open assuming JJ was playing I felt 3 or 3.5 would be fair with the possibility it could be a shaded a 1/2 more on either side(low end -2.5 or high end -4). It opened -3.5 and has exploded to 6...

I think when Joe Johnson misses a game its clearly something that is fairly serious. However I would rather a gimpy JJ play to keep the line down but play less then what we have come to expect from him...Plus the Hawks were in that dangerous spot of returning home from a West Coast trip (5 gamer).

At this point I am begininng to wonder if the Hawks are starting to look attractive?? They were tied versus Cle after 3 quarters before shitting the bed in the 4th Q and falling by 11....as I said this is basically the same spot / situation as that game.

Now the Hawks have Marvin Williams working his way back into playing form , Salim Stoudamire is a scorer in my book while a different player then JJ he is similair in some fashions , and ZaZa who was suspended the 1st game. The main reasons DEN lost to ATL blowing a 14 pt lead was inabilty to hit a shot but really and inabilityto make FT's...16/33!!

Denver has played well on the road but up until this point has been undervalued in those situations. So looking at 6 is fairly high.

Going to try and wait and see whats up with JJ , I would rather seem him play and see the line adjust downward for his return to make a play on Denver....what I am looking at is the 1st Half over (105 +100)

I didnt watch the 1st meeting and was wondering IF JJ was guarding Carmelo, if he wasnt who was( I am assuming it was Josh Smith)? Since Melo hasnt played especially well versus ATL wanted to see if it was possibly attributed to who was guarding him..?? That would naturally add to JJ loss if it had been him but as I said assuming it was Josh Smith...

Play: Denver -3.5 -108 1st Half (Medium)

Seattle @ Milw

Last nite my first instinct was Over..?? Then I noticed Milw is actually more of an Under team at home with lower average scores. While Sea will be w/o its main scorer Ray Allen but very vital IMO is Earl Watson's status listed as Questionable with back pains..also for MILW Villanueva has showed up as QUES as well with Elbow woes again...

If Earl Watson doesnt play how BAD is Seattle's bench...Petro , Wilks , Gelabale...??

The Sonics have been a great DOG this year on the road but I would suggest the losses of Allen and Watson (along with Fortson's continued absence) would be just to great to overcome on the road. Especially since they havent traveled w/o Allen yet this season...

So we need an injury update before I go further...Looking at an Under 206.5 , Under 102 1st half , Bucks -4.5 and / or Sonics +2.5 1st Half....

LAL @ Houston

We know TMac is OUT here. We also know that LAL is in a great sandwich spot here...home win(upset) vs SA , travel to face shorthanded Hous , with game @ Dallas on deck..

I mentioned to RedBearde late last nite how the Rockets being favored even w/o Mac isnt as ODD as it looks. We have to remember this LAL team has been DOGGED to LAC twice , was dogged by 4.5 at home to the Spurs and generally hasnt traveled much at all this year. So if your catching 5 pts at home it suggests alot about your teams overall value / strength ...its very logical to think it would only mean LAL is road chalk versus the bottomfeeders of the NBA..Char , Port , etc...Also look at how big Houston spreads ahve been at home...they have mostly been slightily overvalued cause of how tough they are to defeat at home...so if TMac played I would NOT have been suprised to see 6 pt spread here..or in that realm....

Basically I feel Hou is peaking ...they just played 4 in 5 and walked away winning @ Houston as chalk...which basically was all on Mings shoulder with ahuge 4th Q....is he not the most improved player in the NBA ? They have a supporting cast that dosnt have aging vets and Bonzi Wells could he get some PT here...wouldnt count on much though..

Since I feel Hous wins it must play there type of game and feed Ming in the post. The rockets have held opps to 40% shooting at home but only 36% last 5 games!!!Hous seems to be consistently in the mid to upper 80's lately and even at low 90's and a Hous cover means an UNDER...

Play: Houston -2 -110 (XLarge) , Under 184 -110 (Medium)

Sac @ GS

For some reason I am little baffled this line has moved off -3. The Kings have just a 2-6 away record and havent looked like anything special of late.

GS went through a down period as they were thin due to injuries biut outside of Richardson they seem healthy again...Baron , Murphy , Pietrus all missed some time at one point. GS has been tough at home already owning a win over SAC this season when Baron Davis had something like 10 dimes in the 1st Q....the 1st meeting Miller missed while Jrich played and Murphy didnt....

Here Artest has a somewhat sprained ankle that could affect him here...


Basically I just dont see what makes Sac attractive here.....generally SAC has been the better team the past decade :

<LI class=morecool>Kings are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State. <LI class=morecool>Kings are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

GS is much like Pho with there up tempo pace and probably plays less defense...so the fact the Kings were lit up for 127 makes me very comfortable in thinking GS cracks 110....

-Over is 21-8 in Warriors last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Warriors only 69.6% from the FT line at home need to improve on that...they do shot nearly 49% from the floor and Sac allows 49% from the floor on the road....

The keys to an OVER here IMO are three pt FG percentage , FT percentage and competiveness of the game.....

Of the past 12 home games GS has scored 100 + in 8 , 106 0r 107 in 2 others and a 91 vs Utah.....and 101 in a blowout vs NO..

On 1 day rest....
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b> </TD><TD class=datahl2 colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>SAC</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2</TD><TD class=datacell>4-2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>95.0</TD><TD class=datacell>90.0</TD><TD class=datacell>185.0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>GS</TD><TD class=datacell>7-5</TD><TD class=datacell>8-4-0</TD><TD class=datacell>110.2</TD><TD class=datacell>107.9</TD><TD class=datacell>218.1</TD><TD class=datacell>9-3

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So lean GS -2.5 -108 here......

Looking at Over 213 , Over 107.5 1st Half , Ov 108 -111 GS team
 
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looks good sportsnut. glad you think the under in this game as no one else has said a word really about it and I think this is going under. GL today
 
good luck nut, i am tempted a little by the sonics ml myself, i dont think that rockets line can get any lower than -2, so i may buy a few and hope kobe tweaks an ankle or something for a chance to scalp and middle
 
i leaning towards .5 units on Sonics ML (+179), mo williams will come back to earth and Redd can't carry the team every night
 
mr21 said:
i leaning towards .5 units on Sonics ML (+179), mo williams will come back to earth and Redd can't carry the team every night

hopefully, charlie will be missing the game as well :)

<table class="wire" id="dgrdWire" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="date">12/12/06
01:45 PM</td><td class="title"> Injuries NBA </td><td class="text">Milwaukee's Charlie Villanueva got hit on his injured left elbow in practice on Monday, leaving his status for Tuesday's game in question.</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Had the injury listed as one my question marks for the game..looking at the fact he has played only twice so far sort of makes me feel like it enhances the under and doesnt change my mind on a side much...if Earl Watson is unable to go.. He had 24 pts in 25 minutes in NY and they still lost....

To me the Sonics will be sort of overvalued cause they are 3-0 at home w/o Ray Allen. They played well but its home where factors are easier toovercome persay and the road is always a different factor...Watson missing leaves them with no bench...and they Sonics could tire in the 2nd H thats why I preferred the 1st H if I went with Sea...

I think ist more then Maurice Willaims career game its been a different leading scorer for 4 straight...wish I could get a answer on Earl Watson...

GL though
 
Yes, its definetely a marathon. It is so easy to win a bunch of money, but even more easy to lose it.
But hey look at the good side, now you know why you lost that bankroll and can prevent it in the future better.
Not trying to school nobody in anyway, I respect your betting, You bring strong points to the table and help everyone elso you posts here.
I have learned the most in this game from my losses.
 
MX_259 said:
Yes, its definetely a marathon. It is so easy to win a bunch of money, but even more easy to lose it.
But hey look at the good side, now you know why you lost that bankroll and can prevent it in the future better.
Not trying to school nobody in anyway, I respect your betting, You bring strong points to the table and help everyone elso you posts here.
I have learned the most in this game from my losses.

I dont mind giving some back. You are correct you must learn from losses and I did ...LAC is a BAD team...I have had one losing sport over the past 3 or 4 years bewteen MLB , NFL , NCAAB , NBA , NCAAF....losing sucks but I dont get overly concerned at the end of the day by a single days performance.... about the only thing I would change yesterday is banging the Jazz harder....we are nothing w/o conviction.....the same thought process that got me to +50 units in 2 days made me +25 over 3 days....big picture if one sport I can prosper 25 units in 3 days I am happy.....the key is its best to have those bad days after you have been on a run....

BOL tonite....
 
Thanks, same here. I got boxed for telling a drunk joke over there believe it or not. 3yr member and no respect. I watched brand new posters fuck up that site pretty bad. That got me fed up. I remember one crazy night when me and the poster "dad" went back and forth telling crazy JOKES over there and nothing happened. The site has really faded away IMO.
 
Tonite:

Houston Rockets -2 -110 (XLarge ) L -5.50 & L -2.00
Nuggets 1st H -3.5 -108 (Medium) L -2.16
Bucks -4.5 -110 (Large) L -4.40
Warriors -2.5 -110 (med )& -3 +100 (med) Win +4.00
(-10.06)

Totals
Under 184 -110 Houston (Medium) L -2.20
Under 208 -110 Bucks (Medium) Win +2.00
Over 104.5 -101 Atl 1st Half (Small).L -1.01
Over 52.5 -101 1st Q Atl (Small) L -1.01
Over 213.5 -110 GS (Large) W +4.00
Over 54.5 -101 GS 1st Q (Small) W +1.00

(+2.69)

Team Totals
Over 108 -111 GS (Medium) Win +2.00
Under 101 -110 Milw(Small) WIn +1.00

(+3.00)

So -4.37 stinks but not awful......
 
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Good write-ups as usual from a fellow nyer. Good to see u liking the under in Houston and the over in Golden State. Gl Nut!
 
esco said:
Good write-ups as usual from a fellow nyer. Good to see u liking the under in Houston and the over in Golden State. Gl Nut!

Thanks bro....nice to have some NY flavor in here with me...

I will say that move up on that Hous total has me now concerned but lets see what happens.....BOL tonite!
 
Always good stuff SportsNut, bol with them tonight.

- We also need to get your avatar title changed (if you want), send me a PM with what you'd like...
 
2ND Half

Over 104 +100 (Medium) L -2.00

ATL +8 -115 (Small)..reversed fields.. L -1.15
 
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Added....

Hou -2 +104 (Medium) Loss -2.00
GS -2.5 -110 (Medium)
GS -3 +100(medium)
 
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GUILTY.....of overthinking so far....

Said it looked DEN was one of those rare occassions....did I play them at Half..??

Said the Sonics 1st H was the best way to play them ....and the 1st H Under....

Doing a nice job of just not letting it flow.......
 
Fondybadger said:
This bucks game is coming down to the wire... bucks up 1, with 20 seconds left, there ball out of a timeout...

yeah...I cant get anything right....I knew I was fucked at half with the Houston game should have wiggled out and hedged....never want your team to lead for 22 minutes and then suddenly be down at half....

GL tonite
 
Kings have been struggling a lot and the Warriors just have more firepower. I really like the Warriors and hope this will play will start to steer the ship right. GL!!!!
 
In case you need any Watson info for tomorrow's game against the Bulls.

Sonics guard Earl Watson left Tuesday's game in the second quarter with a lower back contusion and did not return.
 
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