dennishopson
Pretty much a regular
Hey Betcrimes, any thoughts on the under in that one?
Tuesday MLB Discussion
- Thread starter BetCrimes1984
- Start date
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
That would def. be my attitude - Under or no play. I think they have their "hit-a-thon" on Wednesday or Thursday.
dennishopson
Pretty much a regular
"hit-a-thon" :36_11_6:
Good point dude.......:shake:
Good point dude.......:shake:
CharlieBX
Friend of CTG
Depending on the price, I may give Detroit a very serious look. Sowers has horrible numbers against Detroit and Verlander has been getting his act together lately after his bad start to the year. Cleveland trading Sabathia yah...pretty much signaled the white flag being waved imo.
It seems the Yankees are going with Pettitte it seems. I still like Kazmir. Tampa Bay is taking care of business right now, and what better way to go about it than to sweep Boston and now go to New York and take them down? In a 2 week span they have the chance to be able to say they've won series against the two teams that have owned this division for what seems like forever.
Call me crazy but I kind of like Atlanta in one of the late games. Not sure why, gut feeling so far but I think they can hit Billingsley here. hmmmmm...we'll see how the line moves on this one.
Anyone else looking at the White Sox/Royals game? Honestly, I get the feeling KC pulls it out here. Line seems to be trying to bring in White Sox money here as I would've made Contreras a -140ish instead I see it's damn near even. Although he has a very good overall record against KC, looking at the current Royals lineup you'll see these guys can get some hits off of him. Davies has been pretty solid this year although his last few starts have gotten shaky. IF he's got at least a decent game going tomorrow I think he can handle the White Sox lineup as they have some really limited ABs against him and they do tend to struggle the first time they see a decent pitcher.
It seems the Yankees are going with Pettitte it seems. I still like Kazmir. Tampa Bay is taking care of business right now, and what better way to go about it than to sweep Boston and now go to New York and take them down? In a 2 week span they have the chance to be able to say they've won series against the two teams that have owned this division for what seems like forever.
Call me crazy but I kind of like Atlanta in one of the late games. Not sure why, gut feeling so far but I think they can hit Billingsley here. hmmmmm...we'll see how the line moves on this one.
Anyone else looking at the White Sox/Royals game? Honestly, I get the feeling KC pulls it out here. Line seems to be trying to bring in White Sox money here as I would've made Contreras a -140ish instead I see it's damn near even. Although he has a very good overall record against KC, looking at the current Royals lineup you'll see these guys can get some hits off of him. Davies has been pretty solid this year although his last few starts have gotten shaky. IF he's got at least a decent game going tomorrow I think he can handle the White Sox lineup as they have some really limited ABs against him and they do tend to struggle the first time they see a decent pitcher.
CharlieBX
Friend of CTG
Hamels is always worth a look because with him on the mound Philly always has a serious chance to win. However the price is damn high and they're playing St. Louis here...and although I don't really fear Pineiro, I really respect St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan as it seems this guy can get some amazing performances out of anyone. Remember how he got Jeff Weaver to pitch his best games ever 2 years ago?
That Colorado/Milwaukee game is going to be interesting. If CC wins people will be like "Aw shit...how the fuck could I bet on the road woeful Colorado Rockies..." and if CC loses people will be saying "Yep...everyone was overhyped on CC's debut, got trapped into it.". Well, there's always the chance of the "FUCK NED YOST!!!" line being used LOL. Definitely a game I'll stay away from.
Almost forgot, I do like Boston. Lester is on fire right now...plain and simple he dominated the Yankees. Letdown spot? If he was on the road I'd say maybe, but here at home I don't think so.
That Colorado/Milwaukee game is going to be interesting. If CC wins people will be like "Aw shit...how the fuck could I bet on the road woeful Colorado Rockies..." and if CC loses people will be saying "Yep...everyone was overhyped on CC's debut, got trapped into it.". Well, there's always the chance of the "FUCK NED YOST!!!" line being used LOL. Definitely a game I'll stay away from.
Almost forgot, I do like Boston. Lester is on fire right now...plain and simple he dominated the Yankees. Letdown spot? If he was on the road I'd say maybe, but here at home I don't think so.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Minny is 4-12 SU on the road vs AL teams .500 or better. Monday's thread discussed how game 1 was their best chance for a win. It was, and they blew it. A 25% win rate in this spot can't be backed IMO.
CharlieBX
Friend of CTG
BC, excellent point there sir. Yes I too felt Minny's best shot was pulling it out in game one. Blackburn got tossed around by Boston in his one game against them earlier in the year and the only reason Minny won that game 9-8 is because they happen to face Wakefield on a bad day for him.
Lester has faced Minny once earlier this year, at Minny if I recall and the Twins won. I think he gets them back here.
Lester has faced Minny once earlier this year, at Minny if I recall and the Twins won. I think he gets them back here.
B
buckeyeburritos
Guest
st louis at +199 now
Sarcastic Sword
Pretty much a regular
With the way bullpens are blowing games, no pitcher is worth a look at -150 or better imo............Plus, its against a decent team..........I am not a Piniero fan but hes having a good year and for the cards to be a +180 dog is great value.................Yes, Hamels is a stud but he's no lock, especially in that ballpark against what will probably be an all-right handed lineup.....I'll gladly take LaRussa's bunch...
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
IMO a Red sox/Brewers parlay would be better.
I know this is Webb on the mound, & I know it's the Nationals with Odalis Perez, but why risk a play on Arizona? They are just a losing proposition on the road @17-26. Not saying they lose, but they can't generate run support. In their last 19 road games, they have managed over 4 runs in just 3 of them. They are 6-13 in that span. Still tough to back the Nats su here, as they seem to find ways to lose. A case can definitely be made for them +1.5-115. Leaning on the Zona team under4, game u7.5 & Nats+1.5. u6.5 is +155, which IMO is a better value than playing the Nats ml. I would think if they manage the home win, it'll likely be because the Zona bats couldn't do anything. Thinking a 3-2 type of game.....
I was shocked to see such a high price tag on Oakland tonight. I think the A's roll, which correlates to the under even with Big Chief Silva on the bump. I wouldn't play a total, but Oakland laying the wood makes sense, but I cannot bring myself to lay that kind of price just yet.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Hamels+CC+Duchscherer ML 1 to win 2.25:smiley_acbe:
AgainstThePublic
Master of the Pickle Tickle
That is why I play the 1st 5 innings most of the time. It eliminates bullpens and dumb managerial decisions.
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
can you please go get Chief back :shake: we don't want him any more. :smiley_acbe:
Jesus Christ, I would even take Brad Radke instead of him :tiphat::36_11_6:
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
if it were only that easy my friend. But you know how it is. I'll take 1st 5 innings and they'll start playing in the 6th and win 6:1.
What then? They whipped the hell out of them yet I couldn't capitalize. You're right about wanting to eliminate the effect of bullpens, but it's a two bladed sword.
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
I agree. I'm not only a Mariners fan, but I took them at my sane and unbiased mind last night. Not tonight. Silva is 12-24, 5.24 ERA on the road in the last 3 years, similar this year, 2-5, 5.86 ERA, .329 BAA...
Duchscherer is a different animal to what Eveland has to bring. I knew Eveland was good for a couple of runs last night, but I expect nothing less than a shutout today. Seattle off a loss, couldn't convert shit last night, another choked road game (3:0 up in the 1st, runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out in top of the 9th, get nothing)...
Oakland wins 4-0. There's a reason why the line is 7.5 in Oaktown and 9 in Milwaukee.
CC will not shut out the Rockies, they will score 3-4 runs off him at least. Problem is, Milwaukee can score 5,6 or more. It all affects both the RL and the total.
Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Odalis Perez (2-5, 3.78) is 0-2 with a 2.27 ERA in seven starts at Nationals Park and 5-5 with a 3.45 ERA in 20 games -- 18 starts -- against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona is 12-20 in their last 32 overall.
Arizona is 7-14 in last 21 games.
Out of Arizona's last 9 wins, 6 of them were by 1 run.
Washington +1,5 seems enticing. Good price.
Arizona is 12-20 in their last 32 overall.
Arizona is 7-14 in last 21 games.
Out of Arizona's last 9 wins, 6 of them were by 1 run.
Washington +1,5 seems enticing. Good price.
TB @ NYY thoughts :
I have to disagree with what little I have read my the board on this matchup. First my BIGGEST concern is this Yanks have lost 11 of 16 opening games at Home this season a disturbing trend which has alot to do with why they are something like 20-4 in Game 3s . TB also is 11-2 in Opening Games after a Loss and a healthy 20-9 overall in series openers . That is my primary concern . However different scenario here with a 2 game set and a day off IMO. Still who can toss out the above numbers quickly , I cant .
I'll be the first to talk about the Yankees shortcomings and just because I am huge fan it only means by #1 interest is in this team . I hate to have bet against them and generally stick to the +1.5 RL when I do because its hard to cheer for something you care about to LOSE . That 's my personality . There have been many a times when I have even lowered plays of mine because I was going against a certain poster who I would consider a friend because I hate to have root for them to lose . Thats me so understand that when I am talking about the Yanks . I am not some super fan with blinders but I do admit to be overly optimistic at times . Anyway ....
Scott Kazmir is god-like ? I said way back when that he would start to regress as June is not his MONTH . I faded him back @ LAA because I still think that quality pitcher vs quality pitcher with TB's team the home team has the edge against him. There seems to be alot of critcism of Joba Chamberlain out there and his effectiveness as a SP. Clearly the kid is a work in progress but look at each start who is hitting the kid ? Has anyone strung together a couple of hits against him to score ? Has anyone ripped a bunch of balls off him hits or outs ? Right now Joba's weakness is partly his command but more his approach . He needs to lose the swing and miss mentality of a power reliever . He needs to realize he cant strikeout anyone until the get 2 strikes so save the filthy stuff till later in the count . Early in the count just spot your fastball well. That was the BIGGEST thing I never learned until I matured past my college days . I wa sthink headed and in love with the ability to overpwoer people and make them look foolish . It was always about throwing every pitch as hard as I could and snapping off every slider to make the hitter look foolish . It worked a great deal of the time for me because I was blessed a great arm and developed a great slider . Fatigue rarely set in when it was mostly 7 inning games . However if I would have learned to pitch before entering college and mastered while I was in college then there is no doubt I would have been drafted instead of pissing away some good opportunities in college . Those are life's lessons . Those things are what pisses me off about the Yankees . I see the correctable flaw quickly and expect someone to see it in the organization especially since thats what they get paid for . I am not even talking about pitching to contact in Joba's case not a great fan of that phrase . Just the more you show the better the hitter's edge if its less then its sharpest . Perfect example is Youk sitting slider 0-2 vs Joba and hitting a blooper to RF on Sunday . The point about Joba is really what is the difference bewteen him and Kazmir ? Besides LH and RHP , the fact Joba's fastball is alot better ...besides Joba is a monster and Kaz is Ron Guidry like .
There really is not much of a difference . Kazmir still is troubled by high pitch counts and often exits games quicker then one would like for a kid with such dominant stuff . The real issue is the fact is he is already a few seasons into his mL career and hasnt made enough strides in this dept . While at least Joba is less then 10 starts into his career after some success as a reliever .
His first full season 32 starts ONLY 186 innings thats just under 6 inn per start (192 would be 6) . His 2nd season he dealt with an injury and made 24 starts with 144 inn exactly 6 inn per start . Last year 34 starts and 206.2 which again is basically 6 inn per start (204 inn is 6 inn so not even close to 6.1 inn) . This year 12 starts 72 innings and yet again 6 inn exactly . See the pattern ??
So how is he god when he is a 6 inning SP ? Filthy stuff no doubt but dominanting SP I dont agree .
Then recent performance as I noted awhile back think before the Cubs game his worst month is JUNE in his career and again held true although this was possibly on eof his better ones. Point is Kazmir is not the superstar he is made out to be . His stuff is awesome and at times so are his performances . I am not knocking him but trying to put him in prespective.
His last few starts are poor . Since laboring @ LAA when he went 117 pitches and gave up the lead in the 7th he has gone 4.2 inn , 5,2 inn , 5 inn and 5 inn. Throwing 110 , 106 ,103 and 107 pitches in those outings . Thats 20.1 inn for 416 PITCHES !
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>7-6</TD><TD class=datacell>-132/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>107 </TD><TD class=datacell>21.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/27/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ PIT</TD><TD class=datacell>10-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-175/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>103 </TD><TD class=datacell>20.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.38</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/22/08</TD><TD class=datacell>HOU</TD><TD class=datacell>2-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-225/8</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>106 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.43</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/17/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CHC</TD><TD class=datacell>3-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-136/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>4.2</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>110 </TD><TD class=datacell>23.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
While he is not allowing alot of hits we see with each start it slowly increasing and the Ks slowly decreasing . Usually a sign of his stuff regressing as well ( decrease in velocity or command and perhaps a flatter slider). His 2008 start vs NYY I think Matsui and Abreu sat while Arod and Posada were injured . So basically we were minus our 3-4-6-7 hitters ....not a tough task .
Think NY might start Molina at C and DH Posada since TB can run well . Leaving the OF spot open and I think Christian was recalled when Damon was DLed so would guess he is the frontrunner to start in LF over the LH Gardner ..
Looking @ Kaz on the road we pass on his 1st start off the DL @ Boston , then @ Oak generally struggle with LHSP especially the better ones and he was -120 vs Greg Smith , then @ Texas and we know how bad Texas is vs LHSP compared to RHSP or at least I hope we do by now (close game late vs PAdilla but excellent start IMO) price was around -140 , then there was @ LAA vs Lackey again solid start vs a team missing some bats and slumping about +105 or +110 dog , and @ Pitt faced a young kid making his ML debut got a big lead early and nearly pissed it away .
So basically IMO if he is small fav @ Oak to Greg Smith and small dog @ LAA to Lackey there is NO WAY he should be favored @ Yankee Stadium especially in current form . NO WAY ! Yanks should have opended no lower then -110 here IMO.
However TB is starting to become public as perception increases . As I pointed out yesterday though most of there recent home wins were all close games minus the Hovechar and Bannister starts 2 kids who have road issues right now. As I said with most teams they wins that are close and generally pulled out at late at home tend to be losses on the road citing Boston as a great example losing SIX 1 run games on there 3-7 trip and then come home and win 1-0 in the b8th .
Kaz has some solid success vs some NYY bats :
Cano 1-13 7Ks
Giambi 2-16 7Ks (Betemit may start actually )
Jeter 3-23
ARod 2-18
J.Molina 1-8
Abreu 3-9
Melky 4-10
Posada 8-17
For NYY its rather simple AGAIN. Be patient and work counts like they started to do later in the game vs Wakefield and we saw how quickly Wake went from looking good to looking like he was struggling . Its all an illusion .
With Pettitte he clearly didnt have much vs Boston but neither did his teammates . He had won 4 straight starts on excellent pitching so he is allowed a hiccup and you could see him start to labor vs SD and Cincy in the 5th and 6th innings if you watched closely (plus a rain delay in his previous start) .
Pettitte season has seen huge differences in LHB vs RHB . Good news is look at TB lineup with Pena back ....Though TB has given Andy some headaches since his return to Pinstripes in 2007 . 7 starts just 3-4 record . Only 1 start where he went 7 innings .
38 Inn 56 H 28R 24ER 16BB 34K 4Hrs
So for one reason or another TB has given him headaches . I know both years I think he started his season vs TB off an injury and was less then 100% but generally rather suprising when you see the numbers .
So far in 2008 Bartlett and Gomes have hurt him. Gomes owns him at 6-7 and Bartlett was 4-10 but on the DL now. Really the core lineup though not much .
Crawford 2-10
Iwamura 2-6
Longoria 1-5
Pena 1-6
Upton 2-9
2007
Gomes 2-9 6Ks
Crawford 2-8
Iwamura 1-11
Navarro 2-6
Pena 4-8 2Hrs
Upton 1-6
Zobrist 1-3
So it seems alot of timely hitting vs him as well as alot of scrub squad type players having brief success vs him. The only worries on the surface are Gomes 2008 numbers whihc if they came in April were when Pettitte was basically in ST mode and Pena 2007 stats which he has yet to duplicate that production.
TB has a very good pen but Wheeler looked terrible yesterday and Percival on the DL sort of thins it out but Balfour has been excellent . Closing games out an issue IMO especially away especially with Al Reyes and Percival DLed and Wheelers egg yesterday .
Bottomline :
Wrong team is favored IMO . TB is still just 19-19 away and probably well below .500 if not IL play (6-3 away in IL so 13-16 vs AL or 13-10 vs teams not named Boston) .
TB split a 4 game set @ NYY but beat Ian Kennedy who never had it going right in 2008 and beat Pettitte in his 1st 2008 start narrowly due to a 2run error and Gomes 3 run Hr in the 5th which barely got out the park and came at time when Andy was probably tiring . Otherwise they managed 1 run in 2 games vs Moose and Wang .
Just expect Pettitte to bounce back here and pitch like he was previously in what is a favorable matchup for him on paper . Also see Kaz's splits in outdoor games vs indoor games WHIP increase heavily as does the ERA . Pettitte had the rut a few starts into the season where after a good couple of starts he appeared to be hitting a wall in the 5th inning nearly everytime and getting some bad breaks as well . He lost 5 straight starts well the Yanks did but outside of that he has NOT lost or NYY has not lost consecutive starts for him and he has won 9 of 12 games for the Yanks . Seemed to happen last year as well . Losing 6 of his 1st 7 starts including 4 in a row but rebounded to win 20 of his final 27 starts . Never losing consecutive turns after July 1st going 14-5 in the last 19 so wonder if this is a trend due to his abbreviated Springs ......
With Kaz he goes on an extra days rest here and generally has been slightily better in his career in that spot . His 2008 stats looked skewed IMO . His 2nd start of the year and 1st at home was vs LAA which he did well but LAA offensively at the time was terrible , then next two turns were Texas both times as I said texas vs LHP not very good and terrible on the road , with the last being vs the Cubbies at home . So weighing that lightily .....
Good Luck .
Strong Lean towards NYY but want to see the LINEUPS . TB was never favored @ Boston so why NYY with Pettitte ? Beckett was about 30 cents higher recently facing Rasner , with a better lineup / offense and Beckett is a better SP then Kaz while Boston has a better closer ....
:cheers:My only writeup for the day I am burn out ...
I have to disagree with what little I have read my the board on this matchup. First my BIGGEST concern is this Yanks have lost 11 of 16 opening games at Home this season a disturbing trend which has alot to do with why they are something like 20-4 in Game 3s . TB also is 11-2 in Opening Games after a Loss and a healthy 20-9 overall in series openers . That is my primary concern . However different scenario here with a 2 game set and a day off IMO. Still who can toss out the above numbers quickly , I cant .
I'll be the first to talk about the Yankees shortcomings and just because I am huge fan it only means by #1 interest is in this team . I hate to have bet against them and generally stick to the +1.5 RL when I do because its hard to cheer for something you care about to LOSE . That 's my personality . There have been many a times when I have even lowered plays of mine because I was going against a certain poster who I would consider a friend because I hate to have root for them to lose . Thats me so understand that when I am talking about the Yanks . I am not some super fan with blinders but I do admit to be overly optimistic at times . Anyway ....
Scott Kazmir is god-like ? I said way back when that he would start to regress as June is not his MONTH . I faded him back @ LAA because I still think that quality pitcher vs quality pitcher with TB's team the home team has the edge against him. There seems to be alot of critcism of Joba Chamberlain out there and his effectiveness as a SP. Clearly the kid is a work in progress but look at each start who is hitting the kid ? Has anyone strung together a couple of hits against him to score ? Has anyone ripped a bunch of balls off him hits or outs ? Right now Joba's weakness is partly his command but more his approach . He needs to lose the swing and miss mentality of a power reliever . He needs to realize he cant strikeout anyone until the get 2 strikes so save the filthy stuff till later in the count . Early in the count just spot your fastball well. That was the BIGGEST thing I never learned until I matured past my college days . I wa sthink headed and in love with the ability to overpwoer people and make them look foolish . It was always about throwing every pitch as hard as I could and snapping off every slider to make the hitter look foolish . It worked a great deal of the time for me because I was blessed a great arm and developed a great slider . Fatigue rarely set in when it was mostly 7 inning games . However if I would have learned to pitch before entering college and mastered while I was in college then there is no doubt I would have been drafted instead of pissing away some good opportunities in college . Those are life's lessons . Those things are what pisses me off about the Yankees . I see the correctable flaw quickly and expect someone to see it in the organization especially since thats what they get paid for . I am not even talking about pitching to contact in Joba's case not a great fan of that phrase . Just the more you show the better the hitter's edge if its less then its sharpest . Perfect example is Youk sitting slider 0-2 vs Joba and hitting a blooper to RF on Sunday . The point about Joba is really what is the difference bewteen him and Kazmir ? Besides LH and RHP , the fact Joba's fastball is alot better ...besides Joba is a monster and Kaz is Ron Guidry like .
There really is not much of a difference . Kazmir still is troubled by high pitch counts and often exits games quicker then one would like for a kid with such dominant stuff . The real issue is the fact is he is already a few seasons into his mL career and hasnt made enough strides in this dept . While at least Joba is less then 10 starts into his career after some success as a reliever .
His first full season 32 starts ONLY 186 innings thats just under 6 inn per start (192 would be 6) . His 2nd season he dealt with an injury and made 24 starts with 144 inn exactly 6 inn per start . Last year 34 starts and 206.2 which again is basically 6 inn per start (204 inn is 6 inn so not even close to 6.1 inn) . This year 12 starts 72 innings and yet again 6 inn exactly . See the pattern ??
So how is he god when he is a 6 inning SP ? Filthy stuff no doubt but dominanting SP I dont agree .
Then recent performance as I noted awhile back think before the Cubs game his worst month is JUNE in his career and again held true although this was possibly on eof his better ones. Point is Kazmir is not the superstar he is made out to be . His stuff is awesome and at times so are his performances . I am not knocking him but trying to put him in prespective.
His last few starts are poor . Since laboring @ LAA when he went 117 pitches and gave up the lead in the 7th he has gone 4.2 inn , 5,2 inn , 5 inn and 5 inn. Throwing 110 , 106 ,103 and 107 pitches in those outings . Thats 20.1 inn for 416 PITCHES !
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>7-6</TD><TD class=datacell>-132/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>107 </TD><TD class=datacell>21.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/27/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ PIT</TD><TD class=datacell>10-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-175/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>103 </TD><TD class=datacell>20.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.38</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/22/08</TD><TD class=datacell>HOU</TD><TD class=datacell>2-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-225/8</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>106 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.43</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/17/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CHC</TD><TD class=datacell>3-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-136/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>4.2</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>110 </TD><TD class=datacell>23.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
While he is not allowing alot of hits we see with each start it slowly increasing and the Ks slowly decreasing . Usually a sign of his stuff regressing as well ( decrease in velocity or command and perhaps a flatter slider). His 2008 start vs NYY I think Matsui and Abreu sat while Arod and Posada were injured . So basically we were minus our 3-4-6-7 hitters ....not a tough task .
Think NY might start Molina at C and DH Posada since TB can run well . Leaving the OF spot open and I think Christian was recalled when Damon was DLed so would guess he is the frontrunner to start in LF over the LH Gardner ..
Looking @ Kaz on the road we pass on his 1st start off the DL @ Boston , then @ Oak generally struggle with LHSP especially the better ones and he was -120 vs Greg Smith , then @ Texas and we know how bad Texas is vs LHSP compared to RHSP or at least I hope we do by now (close game late vs PAdilla but excellent start IMO) price was around -140 , then there was @ LAA vs Lackey again solid start vs a team missing some bats and slumping about +105 or +110 dog , and @ Pitt faced a young kid making his ML debut got a big lead early and nearly pissed it away .
So basically IMO if he is small fav @ Oak to Greg Smith and small dog @ LAA to Lackey there is NO WAY he should be favored @ Yankee Stadium especially in current form . NO WAY ! Yanks should have opended no lower then -110 here IMO.
However TB is starting to become public as perception increases . As I pointed out yesterday though most of there recent home wins were all close games minus the Hovechar and Bannister starts 2 kids who have road issues right now. As I said with most teams they wins that are close and generally pulled out at late at home tend to be losses on the road citing Boston as a great example losing SIX 1 run games on there 3-7 trip and then come home and win 1-0 in the b8th .
Kaz has some solid success vs some NYY bats :
Cano 1-13 7Ks
Giambi 2-16 7Ks (Betemit may start actually )
Jeter 3-23
ARod 2-18
J.Molina 1-8
Abreu 3-9
Melky 4-10
Posada 8-17
For NYY its rather simple AGAIN. Be patient and work counts like they started to do later in the game vs Wakefield and we saw how quickly Wake went from looking good to looking like he was struggling . Its all an illusion .
With Pettitte he clearly didnt have much vs Boston but neither did his teammates . He had won 4 straight starts on excellent pitching so he is allowed a hiccup and you could see him start to labor vs SD and Cincy in the 5th and 6th innings if you watched closely (plus a rain delay in his previous start) .
Pettitte season has seen huge differences in LHB vs RHB . Good news is look at TB lineup with Pena back ....Though TB has given Andy some headaches since his return to Pinstripes in 2007 . 7 starts just 3-4 record . Only 1 start where he went 7 innings .
38 Inn 56 H 28R 24ER 16BB 34K 4Hrs
So for one reason or another TB has given him headaches . I know both years I think he started his season vs TB off an injury and was less then 100% but generally rather suprising when you see the numbers .
So far in 2008 Bartlett and Gomes have hurt him. Gomes owns him at 6-7 and Bartlett was 4-10 but on the DL now. Really the core lineup though not much .
Crawford 2-10
Iwamura 2-6
Longoria 1-5
Pena 1-6
Upton 2-9
2007
Gomes 2-9 6Ks
Crawford 2-8
Iwamura 1-11
Navarro 2-6
Pena 4-8 2Hrs
Upton 1-6
Zobrist 1-3
So it seems alot of timely hitting vs him as well as alot of scrub squad type players having brief success vs him. The only worries on the surface are Gomes 2008 numbers whihc if they came in April were when Pettitte was basically in ST mode and Pena 2007 stats which he has yet to duplicate that production.
TB has a very good pen but Wheeler looked terrible yesterday and Percival on the DL sort of thins it out but Balfour has been excellent . Closing games out an issue IMO especially away especially with Al Reyes and Percival DLed and Wheelers egg yesterday .
Bottomline :
Wrong team is favored IMO . TB is still just 19-19 away and probably well below .500 if not IL play (6-3 away in IL so 13-16 vs AL or 13-10 vs teams not named Boston) .
TB split a 4 game set @ NYY but beat Ian Kennedy who never had it going right in 2008 and beat Pettitte in his 1st 2008 start narrowly due to a 2run error and Gomes 3 run Hr in the 5th which barely got out the park and came at time when Andy was probably tiring . Otherwise they managed 1 run in 2 games vs Moose and Wang .
Just expect Pettitte to bounce back here and pitch like he was previously in what is a favorable matchup for him on paper . Also see Kaz's splits in outdoor games vs indoor games WHIP increase heavily as does the ERA . Pettitte had the rut a few starts into the season where after a good couple of starts he appeared to be hitting a wall in the 5th inning nearly everytime and getting some bad breaks as well . He lost 5 straight starts well the Yanks did but outside of that he has NOT lost or NYY has not lost consecutive starts for him and he has won 9 of 12 games for the Yanks . Seemed to happen last year as well . Losing 6 of his 1st 7 starts including 4 in a row but rebounded to win 20 of his final 27 starts . Never losing consecutive turns after July 1st going 14-5 in the last 19 so wonder if this is a trend due to his abbreviated Springs ......
With Kaz he goes on an extra days rest here and generally has been slightily better in his career in that spot . His 2008 stats looked skewed IMO . His 2nd start of the year and 1st at home was vs LAA which he did well but LAA offensively at the time was terrible , then next two turns were Texas both times as I said texas vs LHP not very good and terrible on the road , with the last being vs the Cubbies at home . So weighing that lightily .....
Good Luck .
Strong Lean towards NYY but want to see the LINEUPS . TB was never favored @ Boston so why NYY with Pettitte ? Beckett was about 30 cents higher recently facing Rasner , with a better lineup / offense and Beckett is a better SP then Kaz while Boston has a better closer ....
:cheers:My only writeup for the day I am burn out ...
AgainstThePublic
Master of the Pickle Tickle
Great writeup SN and I agree with all your points. I don't care how bad the Yanks have been playing. Anytime you get Pettitte at home in pretty much a must win series for the Yanks, I am not thinking twice in taking the Yanks. Huge two game series IMO and here is where the season needs to turn around for the Yanks. Like NYY 1st 5 and game. GL.
Last comments - COL @ MILW -
Again I disagree . Col has won 6 of 7 now and is playing better . Redman pitched a damn good game vs a damn good lineup in Fla allowing 6hits and 2 runs in 6 innings granted there are weaker vs LHP. He is capable of keeping his team in the game . It is not recent history but Redman at one time really enjoed facing MILW if you look at his L10 starts vs them( basically 03 to 05). Sure different lineup , different makeup , etc but its always good to have that previous success in the past . When he toes the rubber he is pitching vs Milw not so much each indivual player . While CC though in the same time frame never really did well vs Colorado . Col has played MILW very well in 2007 and 2008 . Col took 2 of 3 this year at home losing 3-2 in game 3 before winning yesterday . They swept them at home in 2007 and while they lost 2 of 3 @ Milw both were by 1 run . So COL is 7-3 SU inthese games all losses by 1 RUN .
CC threw a 123 pitches his last outing and CLE seemed fined with his elevated pitch counts recently as he went 116 the previous two. Granted a big dude the pitch count is less worrisome with him but its more then 1 start . Also he is more hittable when he a days extra rest and at night .
June pitches 119 , 106 , 112 , 116 ,116 , 123(really July2nd). Kinda odd as I think he topped 115 pitches just 4 times in 2007 though he did often in 2006 . Really there is no indication elevated pitch counts bother him but just seems like the made up there mind a while back he was gonna be traded and they sucked every last ounce out of him .Which is odd because you think he would be babied in this period.
Anyway point is there is to much hype hailing CC as the savior . This team is much better now still it has huge bullpen issues and 2 staff aces followed by three question marks . To many RHBs in there lineup and what happens if Branyan becomes Russell Branyan again ?
COL just beat 4LHSP at home as there lineup has changed with Baker involved and Barmes returning from injury to a more RH dominanted lineup . They also hit 3 of the 4 LH very hard and chased them early (Olsen , Wolf and Hendrickson) with only Andrew Miller being somewhat solid 6.2 5 h 3 runs . COL is 7-1 L8 vs LHSP and 9-2 L11 since players started getting healthy . They have faced just 3 LHSP away with Rogers being the most recent winning 2-1 (Cook vs Kershaw) , 2-0 ( DeLaRosa vs Danks) and losing 4-3 to Gambler who they touched up for 8 hits and 3 runs in 6 innings . So they are improving vs LHSP as well .
Milw looks awesome vs LHSP but alot of junker type LHP have given them trouble and at times LH have shut them down at home . See Maholm on Saturday , guys like Doug Davis and Glen Perkins have been quality vs them , Jo Jo Reyes lost 1-0 @ Milw , Odalis Perez , Jaime Moyer , Scott Olsen one of the more solid guys shut them down home and away . So a LH can silence MILW .....Dont trust Milw's pen at all ..
Probably stick to COL +1.5 RL . After letting it all hang out vs WSox trying to get CLe a win he nows has to "impress" his teammates , his new city and fans and everyone watching ...certainnly capable of it but rather gamble the other way :cheers:
Again I disagree . Col has won 6 of 7 now and is playing better . Redman pitched a damn good game vs a damn good lineup in Fla allowing 6hits and 2 runs in 6 innings granted there are weaker vs LHP. He is capable of keeping his team in the game . It is not recent history but Redman at one time really enjoed facing MILW if you look at his L10 starts vs them( basically 03 to 05). Sure different lineup , different makeup , etc but its always good to have that previous success in the past . When he toes the rubber he is pitching vs Milw not so much each indivual player . While CC though in the same time frame never really did well vs Colorado . Col has played MILW very well in 2007 and 2008 . Col took 2 of 3 this year at home losing 3-2 in game 3 before winning yesterday . They swept them at home in 2007 and while they lost 2 of 3 @ Milw both were by 1 run . So COL is 7-3 SU inthese games all losses by 1 RUN .
CC threw a 123 pitches his last outing and CLE seemed fined with his elevated pitch counts recently as he went 116 the previous two. Granted a big dude the pitch count is less worrisome with him but its more then 1 start . Also he is more hittable when he a days extra rest and at night .
June pitches 119 , 106 , 112 , 116 ,116 , 123(really July2nd). Kinda odd as I think he topped 115 pitches just 4 times in 2007 though he did often in 2006 . Really there is no indication elevated pitch counts bother him but just seems like the made up there mind a while back he was gonna be traded and they sucked every last ounce out of him .Which is odd because you think he would be babied in this period.
Anyway point is there is to much hype hailing CC as the savior . This team is much better now still it has huge bullpen issues and 2 staff aces followed by three question marks . To many RHBs in there lineup and what happens if Branyan becomes Russell Branyan again ?
COL just beat 4LHSP at home as there lineup has changed with Baker involved and Barmes returning from injury to a more RH dominanted lineup . They also hit 3 of the 4 LH very hard and chased them early (Olsen , Wolf and Hendrickson) with only Andrew Miller being somewhat solid 6.2 5 h 3 runs . COL is 7-1 L8 vs LHSP and 9-2 L11 since players started getting healthy . They have faced just 3 LHSP away with Rogers being the most recent winning 2-1 (Cook vs Kershaw) , 2-0 ( DeLaRosa vs Danks) and losing 4-3 to Gambler who they touched up for 8 hits and 3 runs in 6 innings . So they are improving vs LHSP as well .
Milw looks awesome vs LHSP but alot of junker type LHP have given them trouble and at times LH have shut them down at home . See Maholm on Saturday , guys like Doug Davis and Glen Perkins have been quality vs them , Jo Jo Reyes lost 1-0 @ Milw , Odalis Perez , Jaime Moyer , Scott Olsen one of the more solid guys shut them down home and away . So a LH can silence MILW .....Dont trust Milw's pen at all ..
Probably stick to COL +1.5 RL . After letting it all hang out vs WSox trying to get CLe a win he nows has to "impress" his teammates , his new city and fans and everyone watching ...certainnly capable of it but rather gamble the other way :cheers:
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
I will be on NY tonight for sure. Tampa a much different team away from home and great value on NY here. The way they won that last game in Boston is the type of game that can be the start of something big. Girardi ejected, kid from the minors gets gamewinning hit off a dominant closer from their biggest rival.....
Yanks big for me tonight at -105
Yanks big for me tonight at -105
DaBestBody4Life
Professional Student
loving yanks...liking giants and padres...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Good stuff on the Rockies, Nut.
You are a little off in your talks about Wheeler, though. Longoria made a timely error to lead off the inning, and after a grounder moved the runner over, they intentionally walked Gload to get the righty/righty matchup to try to induce the double play. He made a mistake and it got tattooed, and the shell-shock carried over into the Aviles at-bat, as he also hit one 9 miles when he was sitting dead-red after Wheeler fell behind in the count. The one real bad pitch was to Buck - but despite giving up four runs, he wasn't as bad as it might look.
Also, you say 'TB was never favored @ Boston so why NYY with Pettitte?'
I can answer that - Boston is the best team in baseball. If they and the Yankees marched the same pitcher out there, the Red Sox would be favorite on a neutral site no matter who the pitcher was.
You are a little off in your talks about Wheeler, though. Longoria made a timely error to lead off the inning, and after a grounder moved the runner over, they intentionally walked Gload to get the righty/righty matchup to try to induce the double play. He made a mistake and it got tattooed, and the shell-shock carried over into the Aviles at-bat, as he also hit one 9 miles when he was sitting dead-red after Wheeler fell behind in the count. The one real bad pitch was to Buck - but despite giving up four runs, he wasn't as bad as it might look.
Also, you say 'TB was never favored @ Boston so why NYY with Pettitte?'
I can answer that - Boston is the best team in baseball. If they and the Yankees marched the same pitcher out there, the Red Sox would be favorite on a neutral site no matter who the pitcher was.
Big Herm
Pretty much a regular
Favorite play of the day is Pitt at home. Snell has been solid at home and when he does get lit up it seems to be by teams that draw walks(Toronto, STL, CWS, etc). Houston is 2nd lowest in BB/G, averaging 2.84 a game. Only KC has a lower rate. His better games have come against tams like MIL, FLA, ARI, WAS...teams that either don't walk much, k a good amount, or both. If I am not mistaken, every team that has hit him well is in the top half in BB/G. 3 of the 4 teams he has done well against are bottom half and Zona, the other, is 3rd to worst in K/G. Thinking Snell can be wildly effective and get the Stros to hit into outs. He has vpretty good BvP vs HOU as well, only a few relative guys have hit him pretty well and nobody has homered off him in 75 ABs.
On the flip side Backe is terrible on the road. He is very homer prone and while the BA of the Bucs against him is not great overall, he has given up 7 HRs in 99 ABs, and a .485 SLG against. Like the Bucs and the over here.
On the flip side Backe is terrible on the road. He is very homer prone and while the BA of the Bucs against him is not great overall, he has given up 7 HRs in 99 ABs, and a .485 SLG against. Like the Bucs and the over here.
I agree CKR . I did forget the error which allowed the flood gates to open . Basically though as him as there closer option option I am less then comfortable . Probably did sound like I was pissing on Wheeler but didnt mean to.
I think my point with the comparision is that TB came into both Boston series playing real well (ie: raised expectations) and still they were dogs. Lester early on was favored vs Kazmir in what to me is a similar type spot as today in NYY and back then hard to believe Lester's value is ahead of Pettitte's. Basically TB walked in playing well @ Boston and even at the prices listed TB was overvalued . So if they are overvalued as say +120 dogs in Boston how can they be favored @ NYY ? Kaz was -160 at home vs a young SP Ian Kennedy , minus ARod and Posada (Matsui and Abreu as well)hard to believe he is now worth signifcantly more on the road , facing Pettitte and a healthier NYY lineup . Sure TB has improved but so has NYY and TB still hasnt shown any ability vs upper tier teams on the road . I dont see how this matchup would be -110 TB on a neutral site let alone @ NYY . Its basically saying TB would be at least -180 if this matchup were at home . Now clearly reading lines is not that cut and dry but you get my jist . Beckett laying -130 @ the Stdium or -140 is logically cause I could see him being around -210 or -220 @ Fenway . Here I just dont see where they get this price from. if NYY was any kind of healthy I would expect at least -140. Are they looking for NYY money ? Could be ..Yanks still have to hit and that is an issue
Also I agree Boston would be favored on a neutral site but slim margin IMO(10 cents maybe 15 cents top) . Anytime a home team is priced -140 an below with comparable SP you can guess on a neutral field the away team would be favored . Also we cant forgot Wang , Damon and Matsui three key players replaced basically by Ponson , Gardner and Betemit or Molina is a drastic drop .
I look @ TB L10 games and the opposing SP is terrible .
Pitt sent out Barthmeir , Taubenheim and Gorezlanny recently demoted to AAA .
Boston sent out Masterson , Wake and DiceK .Not terrible but also not Beckett and Lester . DiceK the best of the bunch left early but Bos had a 4-1 lead in the 7th or 8th inning .
KC loses 3-0 and wins in xtras with Grienke and Meche and lose BIG with Hovechar and Bannister .
So what has TB done at all of late is my question?? :shake:
Good Luck today CKR. I have to take the Yanks ML here (maybe RL) if I am sucker for it so be it and I dont mean you implied I was being one . Just talking outloud.
I think my point with the comparision is that TB came into both Boston series playing real well (ie: raised expectations) and still they were dogs. Lester early on was favored vs Kazmir in what to me is a similar type spot as today in NYY and back then hard to believe Lester's value is ahead of Pettitte's. Basically TB walked in playing well @ Boston and even at the prices listed TB was overvalued . So if they are overvalued as say +120 dogs in Boston how can they be favored @ NYY ? Kaz was -160 at home vs a young SP Ian Kennedy , minus ARod and Posada (Matsui and Abreu as well)hard to believe he is now worth signifcantly more on the road , facing Pettitte and a healthier NYY lineup . Sure TB has improved but so has NYY and TB still hasnt shown any ability vs upper tier teams on the road . I dont see how this matchup would be -110 TB on a neutral site let alone @ NYY . Its basically saying TB would be at least -180 if this matchup were at home . Now clearly reading lines is not that cut and dry but you get my jist . Beckett laying -130 @ the Stdium or -140 is logically cause I could see him being around -210 or -220 @ Fenway . Here I just dont see where they get this price from. if NYY was any kind of healthy I would expect at least -140. Are they looking for NYY money ? Could be ..Yanks still have to hit and that is an issue
Also I agree Boston would be favored on a neutral site but slim margin IMO(10 cents maybe 15 cents top) . Anytime a home team is priced -140 an below with comparable SP you can guess on a neutral field the away team would be favored . Also we cant forgot Wang , Damon and Matsui three key players replaced basically by Ponson , Gardner and Betemit or Molina is a drastic drop .
I look @ TB L10 games and the opposing SP is terrible .
Pitt sent out Barthmeir , Taubenheim and Gorezlanny recently demoted to AAA .
Boston sent out Masterson , Wake and DiceK .Not terrible but also not Beckett and Lester . DiceK the best of the bunch left early but Bos had a 4-1 lead in the 7th or 8th inning .
KC loses 3-0 and wins in xtras with Grienke and Meche and lose BIG with Hovechar and Bannister .
So what has TB done at all of late is my question?? :shake:
Good Luck today CKR. I have to take the Yanks ML here (maybe RL) if I am sucker for it so be it and I dont mean you implied I was being one . Just talking outloud.
dennishopson
Pretty much a regular
SportsNut, always appreciate your opinion.......:shake::shake::shake:
I'm just in a stubborn rut over liking TB tonight more about thinking that the Rays hit Pettitte that I'm worried about Kaz's pitch count against the Red Sox and Pirates.........Hell, I just played the Rays RL @ +150
opcorn:
Me being just damn stubborn over this play is probably most of it...:shake:
GL guys with all of your plays tonight..........................:cheers:
I'm just in a stubborn rut over liking TB tonight more about thinking that the Rays hit Pettitte that I'm worried about Kaz's pitch count against the Red Sox and Pirates.........Hell, I just played the Rays RL @ +150
opcorn:Me being just damn stubborn over this play is probably most of it...:shake:
GL guys with all of your plays tonight..........................:cheers:
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Things do not stay the same. There have been many statements made based largely on air about the strength of plays. Arizona is of course a big favorite today and the reason is--------. Currently not interested in the Yankee game but that would be the only side I could play. Kaz has to at least pitch a good game before I get interested in betting on him and the Days point square at NY plus the Yanks finally scored some runs last game. Still undecided about Minn. I know most of you think thats a done deal but honestly I am only hesitant about Minn because of umpire history. Very intersted in the Reds. Things change. Marmol looks weak. Edmonds may be out. Soriano still gone Plenty of guys on that Reds team that have hit Dempster. Harang 11-5 with 6 plus rest. The Cubs are seriously depleted right now and the Reds are closing in on 500 while the Cubs are 4-6 last 10 and have lost 2 of their last 3 home games. When the Cubs were swept at Tampa a downward cycle started. Do not see it changing till they get healthy again. Will wait on ump and line ups.
Maybe I should mention that this is the Brewers Great Day. 18-2 last 20 at home on Tuesday. Still have not played the game.
Maybe I should mention that this is the Brewers Great Day. 18-2 last 20 at home on Tuesday. Still have not played the game.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Can someone explain the line in Texas to me?
Saunders has some of the best numbers in the league this season vs. a kid making his first MLB start.
Angels hit lefties at .271, Texas at .255
Angels on the road are 28-15; Tex at home are 21-19
Angels pen ERA is over a pt lower than Tex.
So why is the line so low on ANA? Saunders is -124. This line should be at least -140 IMO. If this were at home we'd be looking at -180 or more, easy.
Something is up with this line. They're beggin you to take the Halos.
Saunders has some of the best numbers in the league this season vs. a kid making his first MLB start.
Angels hit lefties at .271, Texas at .255
Angels on the road are 28-15; Tex at home are 21-19
Angels pen ERA is over a pt lower than Tex.
So why is the line so low on ANA? Saunders is -124. This line should be at least -140 IMO. If this were at home we'd be looking at -180 or more, easy.
Something is up with this line. They're beggin you to take the Halos.
Good stuff Herm. I remember when you brought that up earlier about Snell . Houston is in some trouble ...leaning Pitt as well .
Good Luck DH . I think the game could go either way but based on Kazs recent starts I dont think price is warranted . Thats all certainly not a game I love either .
Last comment -
Disagree with value in STL. They just faced Marshall and Lilly at home and did next nothing off them and clearly Cole Hamels is a step up . They probably should have been swept by Chicago at home . There past 4 games they scored 1,1,5,1 with 3 in the 9th off Wood in the lone win . Hamels is clearly an ACE and there job is stop losing streaks and Philly has lost 3 straight with Happ going tmrw and I am sure he is aware of this. Philly has lost 3 straight but 4-4 tied game the pen blew it late , they tied it late vs NYM and lost in extras and yesterday down 10-1 almost came all the way back had the tieing run on 2nd and winning run up at the plate . So should be some good momentum. Eaton gave them NO CHANCE and they almost won.
Piniero has been hit hard his past 2 starts and isnt pitching like he was a month ago. 11runs and 21 hits in 12.2 innings .....
The big reason Philly lost the past 3 days was SP. They fell behind 3-0 and tied it , they fell behind 2-0 and tied it , the fell behind 10-1 and lost 10-9 !
While it looks high I really dont see how STL has better then 30% chance of winning this game its probably closer to half that .
Good Luck DH . I think the game could go either way but based on Kazs recent starts I dont think price is warranted . Thats all certainly not a game I love either .
Last comment -
Disagree with value in STL. They just faced Marshall and Lilly at home and did next nothing off them and clearly Cole Hamels is a step up . They probably should have been swept by Chicago at home . There past 4 games they scored 1,1,5,1 with 3 in the 9th off Wood in the lone win . Hamels is clearly an ACE and there job is stop losing streaks and Philly has lost 3 straight with Happ going tmrw and I am sure he is aware of this. Philly has lost 3 straight but 4-4 tied game the pen blew it late , they tied it late vs NYM and lost in extras and yesterday down 10-1 almost came all the way back had the tieing run on 2nd and winning run up at the plate . So should be some good momentum. Eaton gave them NO CHANCE and they almost won.
Piniero has been hit hard his past 2 starts and isnt pitching like he was a month ago. 11runs and 21 hits in 12.2 innings .....
The big reason Philly lost the past 3 days was SP. They fell behind 3-0 and tied it , they fell behind 2-0 and tied it , the fell behind 10-1 and lost 10-9 !
While it looks high I really dont see how STL has better then 30% chance of winning this game its probably closer to half that .
Look at Saunders career vs Texas and @ Texas . Solid SP but very hittable . The only reason Texas lost yesterday was Mendoza putting them down 8-0 b2nd . Texas rallied made it 8-6 and the turning point in the game was the 6thinning . After a big 5th inning Texas puts the 1st two MOB and has Young , Hamilton , Bradley up with NO OUT . Young Ks and Hamilton hits into a DP. Like always Tori Hunter leads off the next inning with a solo HR . If Young and Hamilton do something the momentum would have carried Texas to a victory . Anyone who had LAA was very lucky that the 6th ended like it did otherwise the game was texas and people would be talking about how LAA blew an 8-0 lead .
You know nothing about the kid starting for Texas so how can we form an opinion ?
Joe Saunders (L) Previous Starts vs. Texas
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/26/07</TD><TD class=datacell>@ TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>2-16</TD><TD class=datacell>-113/10</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>7 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>104 </TD><TD class=datacell>20.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/31/07</TD><TD class=datacell>TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>7-6</TD><TD class=datacell>-185/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>99 </TD><TD class=datacell>19.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>4.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/25/06</TD><TD class=datacell>TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>8-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-139/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>97 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.40</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/16/06</TD><TD class=datacell>@ TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>3-9</TD><TD class=datacell>108/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>2.2</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>70 </TD><TD class=datacell>26.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/06/06</TD><TD class=datacell>TEX</TD><TD class=datacell>9-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-107/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>104 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.67</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Plus Saunders last 7 starts have been medicore . Think 4 times he allowed at least 4 runs and another time 3 runs in 5 innings . Texas we know doesnt hit LHP well and thats all Saunders faces teams who are struggling or dont hit LHP well . He is an illusion .....
If you are going to war who do you want Texas lineup or LAA lineup to outhit someone ?
Also his head is another place as his wife is due to give birth any minute now.....:shake:
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
NUT: Was not long ago, 4-5 weeks maybe that Petitte was getting pounded. He has pitched better lately but I am still leary of a player whos form has regressed after steroid use has stopped. Andy was one of th few to stand up & admitt he was a user, the others are easy to spot, just look for guys who had career #'s last 2-3 yrs & current form is not close to what it was(THEY WERE USERS) Guys who had poorer #'s & are improving are likely to be the guys who were clean. Bottom line I am just not sold on Andys recent form.
I was leaning SD although I played them yesterday as well .
FLA is very , very weak vs LHP.
Jacobs 244 5hr 16 rbi (78abs 3bb to 23Ks)
Hermedia 206 1hr 6 rbi (68abs 7bb 18Ks)
Treanor 11-53 0 Hr 2 Rbi 7bb 14 K
Uggla 15-73 2hrs 8rbi 10bb 24K
Hanley 22-80 .275 2hr 3 rbi 13 bb 21 K
Helms 10-48 1hr 9 rbi 6bb 14K
Cantu 25-74 4hr 10 rbi (lone good hitter )
Willingham 10-41 3hrs 7rbi
Ross 22-70 7hr 19 rbi
So you have a good hitter vs LHP in Cantu and two solid ones in Hanley and Ross but Ross stats were like 1 big month . Little else....
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Thanks Nut - I didn't realize his kid was due.
I'll agree that I'd take Texas to out hit someone, but the pitching really favors LA. Not just the starter, but their pen as well. Big diffference there.
While Saunders number vs. the Rangers are not overly impressive, he's been a different pitcher this year. You're wrong about the last 7 starts though. He's given up 2ER or less in 6 of his last 8 starts.
More importantly for us bettors though is his team's record in games he started. LA is 12-3 in his 15 starts this season. With numbers like that, he's got to be one of the top two or three most profitable pitchers in the league in terms of units won this season.....
I'll agree that I'd take Texas to out hit someone, but the pitching really favors LA. Not just the starter, but their pen as well. Big diffference there.
While Saunders number vs. the Rangers are not overly impressive, he's been a different pitcher this year. You're wrong about the last 7 starts though. He's given up 2ER or less in 6 of his last 8 starts.
More importantly for us bettors though is his team's record in games he started. LA is 12-3 in his 15 starts this season. With numbers like that, he's got to be one of the top two or three most profitable pitchers in the league in terms of units won this season.....
babyneedshoes
Pretty much a regular
Guys, don't post much but feel real strong about Min-Sox under tonight and wanted to share. Lester has been lights out recently and is a real threat to go 8 or 9 shutout innings. Don't know a whole lot about Blackburn but his overall and recent numbers are solid.
But the most important aspect of this game is the lack of punch the Sox have shown recently, especially with runners in scoring position. I was at the Tampa games and saw all 4 of the Yanks gms and last night's as well and these guys are just struggling big time. Tek a total mess and might not even be in the lineup tonight. Coco has been horrible. He's had countless opportunities to bring in a guy from 3rd with less than 2 outs and all he does is pop out or K. Jacoby has hit the wall offensively. Manny looks like shit although he did get the game winner last night thru the drawn in infield. Drew has been spectacular the last 6 weeks and Pedroia is on fire but I just don't see these guys busting out offensively until after they get a few days off. I could go on (Lugo hasn't had a meaningful rbi since his Tampa days, Youk is streaky, has there been a Sean Casey sighting?)
I also like that Lester is pretty good at keeping baserunners close which should negate some of Minns speed should they get aboard.
Bottom line is I love the under tonight.
Big play for me 2 units under 9.5
Added a 1/2 unit at roughly 2:1 on the Sox/under parlay.
Good luck tonight.
But the most important aspect of this game is the lack of punch the Sox have shown recently, especially with runners in scoring position. I was at the Tampa games and saw all 4 of the Yanks gms and last night's as well and these guys are just struggling big time. Tek a total mess and might not even be in the lineup tonight. Coco has been horrible. He's had countless opportunities to bring in a guy from 3rd with less than 2 outs and all he does is pop out or K. Jacoby has hit the wall offensively. Manny looks like shit although he did get the game winner last night thru the drawn in infield. Drew has been spectacular the last 6 weeks and Pedroia is on fire but I just don't see these guys busting out offensively until after they get a few days off. I could go on (Lugo hasn't had a meaningful rbi since his Tampa days, Youk is streaky, has there been a Sean Casey sighting?)
I also like that Lester is pretty good at keeping baserunners close which should negate some of Minns speed should they get aboard.
Bottom line is I love the under tonight.
Big play for me 2 units under 9.5
Added a 1/2 unit at roughly 2:1 on the Sox/under parlay.
Good luck tonight.
cashflowmatters
Where the cash flows, matters
SCDOGGY: Very well put, Angels just seem to win when Saunders starts.
babyneedshoes
Pretty much a regular
One more thing I forgot to mention was how great Boston's defense has looked lately. Spectacular at times.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
You guys are missing my point. Oddsmakers should be making LAA a much bigger fave. The wife giving birth issue would take a few pts off this line. I'm playing Texas. This is a very fishy line, and they wouldn't make ANA a bargain like this unless something was amiss.
Absolutely SC . Just trying to say Texas is like Coors was in the beginning . SP is really a useless factor cause runs will be scored . My point was we dont know what this kid is capable of for Texas and Saunders seems to be slowly unraveling and has a poor history @ Texas. I am not big on LAA pen outside of Shields and KRod but they do have an edge . Still outside of a handful of games which we all remember vividly the Texas pen has been dare I say excellent for the past 6 weeks or so. I really dont worry about LAA middle relievers especially if Saunders is chasd in the 4th or 5th.
I was trying to say LAA didnt really beat Texas as it was mostly the Texas SP who beat Texas . If this kid can avoid being shelled Texas chances are better then 50-50 to win this its just the area of he being shelled that controls so much of the outcome.
Your focusing on earned runs . If they are unearned they still count . Pitchers who continually allow unearned runs tend to be guys who cant overcome an error a bad sign IMO. I think people dont realize how important is to be consistent as a SP. If you consistenly throw strikes , go deep in games and sidestep big innings and pitch for a 500 team or better you will win quite often . Look at Mike Mussina as the perfect example . Joe Saunders is doing the same thing in a different manner . He won 12 of 15 because of consistencty , favorable opponents , a solid pen NOT his pitching .
He has been very profitable but again look at who he is pitching against ..
Oak - think about 3-11 on the road vs LHP and probably avg less then 3 runs per in those starts minus the game vs CC
LAD- was in a huge funk vs LHP see what the Tribe LH did and he didnt get past the 5th inning
Philly- huge slump and 2 best hitters are LH
Atl- terrible vs LHP and a huge slump
and on and on ..just all weak opponents or teams who dont hit LHP. This year there have many teams who simply struggle at times to get 2 runs when they oppose a LHP and OAK-LAD and ATL were notorious for that .
Joe Saunders is just a quality LHP on a good team . He is not a true All Star type pitcher . He is nowhere near CC Sabathia or Cole Hamels he is more a Mark Buerhle type LHSP .
Just think his success is a product of his opponents . I am not saying Texas is a layup but I am saying if this kid can deliver any sort of serviceable start like 3 runs in 5 innings then I would say Texas has a much better chance of winning then LAA does . :shake:All good fun SC......:cheers:
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Thanks for showing me the other side of this one Nut. If the rest of the world has your same opinion of Saunders and the Rangers chances, this line is right where it should be.
I actually played Texas, because it appears with this line they're begging you to play the Angels. I would have made this line somewhere in the -145-150 range for ANA. Maybe I'm thinking too much reverse psychology but I'll play the opposite of lines that appear too good to be true now and then, and this looks like one of those spots.
Good luck tonight
I actually played Texas, because it appears with this line they're begging you to play the Angels. I would have made this line somewhere in the -145-150 range for ANA. Maybe I'm thinking too much reverse psychology but I'll play the opposite of lines that appear too good to be true now and then, and this looks like one of those spots.
Good luck tonight
Why ? Saunders appears better then he really is . He looks cheap till you figure out who he is . I mean you think LAA is -200 vs Texas on a neutral field ? Texas is 46-44 they are not some garbage team and they are 30 cent home dogs . Seems fair to me and I think yesterday proved that . Ervin Santana is better then Saunders and he was knocked around . What scares me is Texas vs a LHP. If Saunders gets behind quickly all his value is lost and people miss that when looking at games . You can say Philly sucks but when its 8-0 after the top of 3rd what are they supposed to do ? Same thing happened to Texas they were down 8-0 and they hit once ...
Everyone thinks its a trap but really its a fair line . The trap is not understanding what the line should be...IMO.....
I am just talking not arguing with anyone.....:shake:
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Like you said earlier, Saunders is a decent LHP on a good team. He very rarely gets shelled and keeps his team in position to win until the late innings. With a 1-2 punch like Shields and Rodriguez, if you can stay in the game until the 7th inning, you'll win 80% of those games.
If we're talking value, a pitcher like Saunders on a team like ANA, is worth more than say a pitcher like CC on a team like MIL.....
If we're talking value, a pitcher like Saunders on a team like ANA, is worth more than say a pitcher like CC on a team like MIL.....
No way . I disagree with that . Saunders rarely has been shelled because he faced nothing but garbage teams and easy lineups . He is not worth more then CC on KC . You dont want to pay for a guy like Saunders when he faces a tough opponent . Just like I would want to lay -130 with Mark Buerhle or Mike Mussina here . You know he is going to get by the better lineups .
He faced Sea 3 times , LAD twice , Oak twice , Atlanta , Cle , WSox , Minny and Philly. Thats 12 of his 16 starts vs teams who cant hit a LHP or in Phillys cause couldnt hit period . Thats how you get 1 year wonders .
Thats leaves 4 starts TB twice , Det and Boston . The only good start he was vs TB and it was because Pena was absent and w/o him and Aybar IN TB hits LHP much better then it normally would and the 2nd meeting they crushed Saunders . Which I bet heavily against him that day expecting him to get hit .
Basically I thought the line was high all aong but hard to say when I dont jack about the Tex kid.
Saunders cant outpitch a great SP or vs a great lineup . CC Sabathia can and does.
Anyway GL . I 'll probably be on Texas ML and RL because Saunders is overrated and the better teams he faces the more evident that will become IMO. Only point that scares me is Texas struggling vs LHP lately but hopefully the Burress beatdown got them on the right track.....
Gotta run .....:cheers:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Don't want to rain on your parade, but a 15 mph wind blowing out to centre aided by an Over Ump + the fact Minny has hit Lester the only time they've seen him + Boston having scored 8 ERs off the 7 IP they've faced from Blackburn the last 2 seasons, would generally give me pause for thought to, if not not back Under, at least not make it a large play.
Coco & Tek arent in the lineup to perform as blackholes, either. Cash is in the lineup and he has a very strong record for home games going Over when he plays.
