Tuesday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
M. Parra

</TD><TD>+1.5 -201</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>OVER 9 -106</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm

</TD><TD>-1.5 +183</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -104</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
M. Owings

</TD><TD>-1.5 +134</TD><TD>-116</TD><TD>OVER 9 -115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
M. Hendrickson

</TD><TD>+1.5 -144</TD><TD>+108</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +105</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>G2 New York Mets
C. Vargas

</TD><TD>+1.5 -206</TD><TD>-104</TD><TD>OVER 10 +102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>G2 Atlanta Braves
J. Campillo

</TD><TD>-1.5 +186</TD><TD>-104</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -112</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
C. Hamels

</TD><TD>-1.5 +109</TD><TD>-153</TD><TD>OVER 8 -115</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
J. Bergmann

</TD><TD>+1.5 -119</TD><TD>+145</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +105</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
R. Dempster

</TD><TD>-1.5 +133</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Houston Astros
C. Sampson

</TD><TD>+1.5 -143</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
T Lincecum

</TD><TD>+1.5 -171</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:35 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
A. Cook

</TD><TD>-1.5 +161</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
J. Pineiro

</TD><TD>+1.5 -191</TD><TD>+110</TD><TD>OVER 8 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
G. Maddux

</TD><TD>-1.5 +178</TD><TD>-118</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
M. Belisle

</TD><TD>+1.5 -136</TD><TD>+160</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley

</TD><TD>-1.5 +126</TD><TD>-168</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
C. Silva

</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+149</TD><TD>OVER 9 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
J. Verlander

</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-157</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
D. Cabrera

</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+139</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 -123</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>New York Yankees
M. Mussina

</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-147</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 +113</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>921</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
G. Meche

</TD><TD>+1.5 -149</TD><TD>+134</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +100</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>922</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
J. Masterson

</TD><TD>-1.5 +139</TD><TD>-142</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -110</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>923</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Lackey

</TD><TD>+1.5 -195</TD><TD>+107</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>924</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
D. McGowan

</TD><TD>-1.5 +182</TD><TD>-115</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -115</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia

</TD><TD>-1.5 +138</TD><TD>-118</TD><TD>OVER 8 -112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
J. Contreras

</TD><TD>+1.5 -148</TD><TD>+110</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +102</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
D. Mathis

</TD><TD>+1.5 -167</TD><TD>+116</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
G. Perkins

</TD><TD>-1.5 +157</TD><TD>-124</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
S. Kazmir

</TD><TD>-1.5 +134</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
G. Smith

</TD><TD>+1.5 -144</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -105</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 5/20</TD><TD>931</TD><TD>G1 New York Mets
J. Maine

</TD><TD>-1.5 +134</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>OVER 9 -120</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>10:10 AM</TD><TD>932</TD><TD>G1 Atlanta Braves
T. Glavine

</TD><TD>+1.5 -144</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Kansas City at Boston
Home Plate Umpire: Hudson, Marvin

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Gil Meche
Justin Masterson
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Carlos Silva
Justin Verlander
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Baltimore at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Daniel Cabrera
Mike Mussina
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:07 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Toronto
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>John Lackey
Dustin McGowan
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Texas at Minnesota
Home Plate Umpire: Joyce, Jim

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Jeff Mathis
Glen Perkins
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:11 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at Chi. White Sox
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>C.C. Sabathia
Jose Contreras
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Tampa Bay at Oakland
Home Plate Umpire: Gorman, Brian

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Scott Kazmir
Greg Smith
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:00 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Atlanta
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>John Maine
Tom Glavine
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:00 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Atlanta
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Jason Vargas
Jorge Campillo
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Manny Parra
Paul Maholm
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Arizona at Florida
Home Plate Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Micah Owings
Mark Hendrickson
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Philadelphia at Washington
Home Plate Umpire: Cuzzi, Phil

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cole Hamels
Jason Bergmann
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at Houston
Home Plate Umpire: Bucknor, C.B.

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Ryan Dempster
Chris Sampson
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Colorado
Home Plate Umpire: Campos, Angel

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Tim Lincecum
Aaron Cook
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>St. Louis at San Diego
Home Plate Umpire: Cederstrom, Gary

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Joel Pineiro
Greg Maddux
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cincinnati at LA Dodgers
Home Plate Umpire: O'Nora, Brian

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Matt Belisle
Chad Billingsley
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Only looking at the game 1 DH in Atlanta. When Tom Glavine pitches in the day then I think two things over or fade him . Just check hi snumbers in the past few years they are pretty bad......


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>15.43</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4.2</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.476</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2.70</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>30.0</TD><TD align=right>25</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.238</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>7.62</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>39.0</TD><TD align=right>52</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.319</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>3.68</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>26</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>161.1</TD><TD align=right>167</TD><TD align=right>66</TD><TD align=right>66</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>72</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.271</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Day</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>4.00</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>74.1</TD><TD align=left>85</TD><TD align=left>37</TD><TD align=left>33</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>21</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>49</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.291</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>Night</TD><TD align=left>11</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>3.71</TD><TD align=left>20</TD><TD align=left>20</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>123.2</TD><TD align=left>117</TD><TD align=left>57</TD><TD align=left>51</TD><TD align=left>17</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>41</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>82</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.252</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>DAY</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>3.86</TD><TD align=left>13</TD><TD align=left>13</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>79.1</TD><TD align=left>96</TD><TD align=left>35</TD><TD align=left>34</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>26</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>37</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.307</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>NIGHT</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>3.34</TD><TD align=left>20</TD><TD align=left>20</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>132.0</TD><TD align=left>131</TD><TD align=left>53</TD><TD align=left>49</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>35</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>68</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>.261</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Looking at 33 starts 197.1 inn but last 10 starts just 43.2 inning and left start vs Wash due to injury but still he avg only about 5 innings per start since 2007 in day starts.

197.1 Inn 245 H 116 runs 109 earned 68bb 106Ks 1.59WHIP and 4.97 ERA...clearly you can see his Night ERA's are 3.71 . 3.67 and 3.34 with 2.70 to date in 2008. Quite a difference plus the WIDE GAP in BAA , anywhere from 39 to 48 points worse in day games prior to 2008. Why this happens ?? Would guess ball travels better in the day and being a soft tosser hitters probably have real comfortable atbats vs him. Now take his numbers and his decreased innings and remember the ATL pen has had issues at times. It will also be taking Campillo out of the pen on the mound for the start of Game 2.

Both SP do much better with the extra rest but Maine is getting 7 days here so be cautious of that . Could lead to early problems .

Really simply put just think Mets are flying high after the Yankee games and have the edge here clearly in SP and probably the pen even. Lets not forget Glavine didnt leave on good terms and he was the one who get wrecked in the last game of the year which all but took away NYs chances . So revenge could be a Met factor more then Glavince factor.

So Mets lean strong and maybe some sort of 1st Inn score Prop remember Johan Santana on 7 days rest allowed a 2 run Hr to Jeter on Saturday Or maybe 1st 5 Over especially if I can get a 4.5 . Smaller lean to the game over.....but Mets or pass I would think when it comes to a side but lets see what tmrw brings and the starting lineups as well. :cheers:
 
Makes you wonder how much Cox is working with for him to play Glavine in the morning game instead of the night.
 
tuck321 said:
Makes you wonder how much Cox is working with for him to play Glavine in the morning game instead of the night.
Click to expand...

Tell ya one thing makes me wonder why they just havent stopped pitching him in day games he always got hit hard as met in day games. Last year was ridiculous and doesnt seem like any change so far. I think alot of these managers are just oblivious. I dont think he can start someone like Campillo in Game 1 because he really could go through his entire pen where as seeing Glavine he will hope he doesnt have to and if asked why he did it that way he surely will answer who is the safer choice Campillo or Glavine...so he wont be second guessed any this way if disaster strikes IMO

:shake:
 
6-14 is an interesting number. Last 20 games the Brewers are 6-14. Last 20 games the Brewers in Pitt are 6-14. Paul has won 4 in a row at home this season and 7 straight going back to last year. Minus 7 cents-----. Brewers may be due though having lost 9 straight on the road. Life is a gamble. Take a chance.
 
as per Nuts observations about Glavine in the daytime, looking at the Over in that game...

Mets last 10 roadies - 11, 7, 12, 4, 1, 5, 4, 7, 5 & 7 runs (6.3 avg)
Mets vs lefties away - 7, 1, 4, 6, 13 & 7 runs (6.3 avg)

Atlanta last 10 @home - 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 14, 9, 2 & 7 runs (5.9 avg)
Atlanta last 9 vs righties - 5, 4, 8, 4, 8, 2, 5, 14 & 9 runs (6.5 avg)

Maine's only start @ATL this season
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ecece4; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>DATE</TD><TD></TD><TD>Venue</TD><TD>OPP</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD>SCORE</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>WHIP</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>04/05</TD><TD></TD><TD>Away</TD><TD align=left>Atlanta</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>5-11</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>9.00</TD><TD>2.75</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Wind projected 13 out to centre right
 
tuck321 said:
6-14 is an interesting number. Last 20 games the Brewers are 6-14. Last 20 games the Brewers in Pitt are 6-14. Paul has won 4 in a row at home this season and 7 straight going back to last year. Minus 7 cents-----. Brewers may be due though having lost 9 straight on the road. Life is a gamble. Take a chance.
Click to expand...


I immediately think to back Maholm when at home but this is sort of curious being he is facing Parra and a team that lost 9 straight away showing basically a PKem situation....Maholm has struggled some in his last 3 but while two were away he wasnt very sharp vs SFG. Last year MIL @ Miller smoked him twice lasting only 9.2 inn allowing 17 hits and 8 runs . Real solid before that but probably cause the Brew Crew was so LH orientated. Now Milw didnt pitch well @ Boston but they did hit pretty well and seeing a LH in Maholm could be trouble.

Looking at the lines it isnt suprising I guess that Parra is aorund even because thats what he has been so far and really Maholm has been real valuable because he has been real small chalk Or hom pup...this is definetly a game to really look at because there is great value in either Milw or Pitt just have to figure out which one...:shake:thanks tuck got the wheels spinning here....:cheers:
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
as per Nuts observations about Glavine in the daytime, looking at the Over in that game...

Mets last 10 roadies - 11, 7, 12, 4, 1, 5, 4, 7, 5 & 7 runs (6.3 avg)
Mets vs lefties away - 7, 1, 4, 6, 13 & 7 runs (6.3 avg)

Atlanta last 10 @home - 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 14, 9, 2 & 7 runs (5.9 avg)
Atlanta last 9 vs righties - 5, 4, 8, 4, 8, 2, 5, 14 & 9 runs (6.5 avg)

Maine's only start @ATL this season
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ecece4; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>DATE</TD><TD></TD><TD>Venue</TD><TD>OPP</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD>SCORE</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>WHIP</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>04/05</TD><TD></TD><TD>Away</TD><TD align=left>Atlanta</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>5-11</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>9.00</TD><TD>2.75</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Wind projected 13 out to centre right
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Good stuff BC.

My only comment about weighing that start was it was Maine's 1st of the year after an unbelieveable ST which was actually pushed back a day because of a rain out . So the extra rest to begin the year could of disrupted his rythmn some plus facing a divisional foe who happened to tossing its ace in Hudson making his 2nd start. Although as I said he is getting 7 days rest here which might make this similiar to that start and I think with his laboring of late in his starts it might be a good thing in one sense it hards to believe his command improves after a week off.

If the wind is out that strong probably a good reason as to why this quickly went to 9.5 ...

good work....:cheers:
 
The drop off in production vL is pretty heavy for MIL this year, last year they led the league with a .860 OPS. I would have to think at least part of the decline is due to Braun's slow start, which he is quickly turning aroun(6 HRs last week I think). He batted .450 with and OPS of 1.480 vL, incredible really. He only has 1 HR in 40 Abs vL vs 15 in 111 last year.

Home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 8 of last 9 and 13 of 17 since 2007 started. MIL has hit Maholm well in the past(Hall and Hart mostly) and he hasn't even faced lefty masher Braun yet. The middle of their lineup could be tricky for Maholm.
 
With Paul at any rate he is playing on good rest. This Atlanta game is tricky. Its hard not to bet against Glavine in the day but at 9-5 in the day to the Mets 9-9 there is an immediate bad sign. Mets coming off a double smash of the Yankees looks also bad. At most I think a first half bet on the Mets small and maybe not at all. Seems like a great spot for Atlanta with Glavine on good rest except for the day disability.
 
Guys, what I am saying more or less with Pitt is in the last 20 days they have lost consecutive games 1 time. They are coming off a tight loss to a strong team. I think the Brewer;s season largely ended when the prodigy got hurt. If you bet on them getting almost nothing I think that is being too tricky. Just play a good team playing well at home with a pitcher playing reasonable baseball and see if you win.
 
Maine on the road on Tuesday 1-3. Last 3 he lasted 10-2/3rds innings giving up 18 runs. Mets 0-3 on the road on Tuesday this year and 3-9 last 12. This is the team that just smoked the Yankees on Sunday night tv playing a 9-5 day team major rival that is being made a home dog. My head hurts. I really do not want to bet on Glavine. I wish I had in game betting so I could take a position after 5 innings.
 
tuck: i respect your plays and i'm pretty familiar with your handicapping style just from my reading of your posts. i also look at those stats i.e. how a team does in game 1, or how a team does on a certain day, etc. i really believe however that it is arbitrary. if maine is 0-3 on tuesday or whatever but 4-0 on friday's i don't think it is becuz he pitches better on a certain day. it matters what team he faces and what the other situational factors are. just my opinion.
 
tuck321 said:
With Paul at any rate he is playing on good rest. This Atlanta game is tricky. Its hard not to bet against Glavine in the day but at 9-5 in the day to the Mets 9-9 there is an immediate bad sign. Mets coming off a double smash of the Yankees looks also bad. At most I think a first half bet on the Mets small and maybe not at all. Seems like a great spot for Atlanta with Glavine on good rest except for the day disability.
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Trust me Tuck I agree on the surface clearly it seems Paul Maholm has value and I have been riding that wave at home probably every start this season. Which is sort of why I am skeptical because its not so under the radar anymore. Which is why I am asking outloud why is this game a PK when Pitt clearly has improved and played well for weeks and is facing a Milw team that on the surface has lost 9 straight away games...

With the Mets and I have mentioned this previously the problem with there day starts is that in April they played a good amount of midweek day games @ Shea which really had some stiff winds that sort of hurt them more then there opponents from what i recall. Not sure I will be able to figure out but I do believe they have improved . I remember @ LAD when Maine faced Penny and the day questions arose I stated the same thing in the discussion thread and they showed that there day issues were sort of not real while also saying Penny was due to get smoked.

I agree that in some ways this is an interesting matchup for ATL and Glavine because then you need Campillo and your pen to avoid a sweep in game 2 . Vargas in his career has done well vs ATL especially as a SP . Maine has had some issues vs ATL and while he was solid the last time he still lasted just 5 innings and was nysteriously pulled that game with injury speculation thereafter. For awhile I have taken the John Maine express and think he has led NY to 4 or 5 straight wins and with the ??? of 7 days rest this might be a good spot to jump off but if so that probably would make a stronger case for the Over here.

We have some new Mets with Chuch and Scheinder but I believe NYM was one of the best day offenses in 2007. I see a 286 avg and 291 runs in 52 games almost 6 per game ( which basically made them and Philly top 2 in the NL). This year 89 runs in 18 games. Last year ATL 46 games only 213 runs but a nice 278 avg. This yr ATL 14 games 299 and 78 runs so big improvement. Also remember though almost every Met enjoys hitting on the road much better then at home. This yr 250 91 runs in 21 home games compared to 266 and 109 runs in 20 games. Castillo at 243 only NYM under 250 although 3 big bats Delgado , Reyes and Beltran at 250 flat. Last yr 288 , 274 and 282 so definetly room for improvement for them IMO......So far im may 76 runs in 16 games for ATL compared to 85 runs in 15 games for NYM...

Braves pen has improved of late but I still dont trust what they have outside of Acosta in a pressure situation and NYM pen is wildy inconsistent especially Heilman .

Maine has defeated both ARI and LAD recently in impressive fashion as he allowed just 3runs and 10 hits in 14.1 innings...

Recent Met day games this May
5-17 Won 7-4 @ Yankee Stadium Johan vs Andy
5-14 Lost 1-0 @ home Bergmann (NJ native)vs Pelfrey
5-11 Won 8-3 @ home vs Cueto w/Ollie Perez
5-10 Won 12-6 @ home Santana vs Belisle
5-7 Won 12-1 @ LAD Maine vs Penny
5-4 Won 5-2 @ Zona Johan vs Haren
5-3 Lost 10-4 @ Zona Webb vs Pelfrey

So 5-2 in May and 5-2 over scoring 48 runs....

Basically just trying to prove my point about the misperception of NYM offensively in day games...:shake:






 
tuck321 said:
Maine on the road on Tuesday 1-3. Last 3 he lasted 10-2/3rds innings giving up 18 runs. Mets 0-3 on the road on Tuesday this year and 3-9 last 12. This is the team that just smoked the Yankees on Sunday night tv playing a 9-5 day team major rival that is being made a home dog. My head hurts. I really do not want to bet on Glavine. I wish I had in game betting so I could take a position after 5 innings.
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I hear ya bro . Lots of conflicting stuff here...another Tuesday number is Bravos 1-5 and 6-0 Under but then again almost all Braves total trends so far suggest an under here....:shake:
 
Big Herm said:
The drop off in production vL is pretty heavy for MIL this year, last year they led the league with a .860 OPS. I would have to think at least part of the decline is due to Braun's slow start, which he is quickly turning aroun(6 HRs last week I think). He batted .450 with and OPS of 1.480 vL, incredible really. He only has 1 HR in 40 Abs vL vs 15 in 111 last year.

Home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 8 of last 9 and 13 of 17 since 2007 started. MIL has hit Maholm well in the past(Hall and Hart mostly) and he hasn't even faced lefty masher Braun yet. The middle of their lineup could be tricky for Maholm.
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They started well in 2008 then just slowly faded vs LHP. Probably due to Braun's slump and Kaplers return to Earth after that super start. Plus some other guys not getting in done like Hardy , Price , Weeks.

Which is why I think we cant overlook that MILW hit pretty well in Boston this weekend.

As the world turns.....:cheers:
 
sn, i unloaded on mets so i hope they get that "revenge" you were talking about. i like that angle btw.
 
jimbo1227 said:
sn, i unloaded on mets so i hope they get that "revenge" you were talking about. i like that angle btw.
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Probably be on the over then NYM just waiting for lineups...

Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
<LI class=more>Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a road favorite. <LI class=more>Mets are 44-18 in their last 62 games following an off day. <LI class=more>Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 Tuesday games.<LI class=more>Mets are 20-6 in Maines last 26 starts vs. National League East<LI class=more>Mets are 31-11 in Maines last 42 starts as a favorite<LI class=more>Braves are 4-10 in their last 14 games as a home underdog. <LI class=morecool>Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 Tuesday games.<LI class=more>Braves are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Braves are 22-7 in their last 29 games following an off day:cheers::shake:
Would like to believe the Mets really want this game. Great way to really blame Glavine is rock him today and show it was his pitching that cost them....
 
Actually tempted to double on the Pirates. I looked at his history vs the Brewers. 4 away games where he got hit. Newsflash, he pitches bad on the road. 1 game at home where he went 7 innings 2 runs. I regard his last start on the road game as for him a quality start. I do not buy even a little the efficient market theory. It may start having some validity after the various playoffs are complete but right now the market and the lines are frequently massively off. Sorry, I think Pitt is simply clear action. Bet on teams that are playing well. See Pitt. Duck and fade teams that play bad See Brewers. The Brewers definitely want to win and very badly. I want multiple diamond mines in South Africa. I doubt either happen.
Braves at home on Tuesday this season 1-1 and 12-8 last 20 Only action that now interests me is the over and I am not locked to that.
 
Major under umpire. Still like over a little but not really interested in betting this game
 
tuck321 said:
Actually tempted to double on the Pirates. I looked at his history vs the Brewers. 4 away games where he got hit. Newsflash, he pitches bad on the road. 1 game at home where he went 7 innings 2 runs. I regard his last start on the road game as for him a quality start. I do not buy even a little the efficient market theory. It may start having some validity after the various playoffs are complete but right now the market and the lines are frequently massively off. Sorry, I think Pitt is simply clear action. Bet on teams that are playing well. See Pitt. Duck and fade teams that play bad See Brewers. The Brewers definitely want to win and very badly. I want multiple diamond mines in South Africa. I doubt either happen.
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Good Luck Tuck. I really dont agree the lines are massively off I believe perception tends to be massively off creatling value in the lines. The lines tend to be correct but most people dont realize it . How many times do I see the value comment just because a line is supposedly high . There is no value if its high unlikely a team wins . The value as we know comes from simply better likelyhood of winning then the price indicates. Like Johan Santana vs Belisle last week? even KC yesterday ? to me price doesnt dictate value its situation and perception that does but that is me. Which is why I liked Minny yesterday simply no reason why Texas should be favored on the road and sort of the backwards example here....we all have our own ways but for the extreme majority will show off lines getting corrected unless misperception allows them to stay off and thats sort of why people make an issue of reverse movement . Which simply means misperception creates value when the bettors overwhelming back the bad line . So the way I would see it is Pitt @ -110 is what appears to be soft but when it continues to move against what one would expect then it only backs up my belief on lines and in this case being soft. Great example is Boston yesterday . I feel its cheap at -150 to 160 so when it moves to -170 then my play becomes confident cause it moved in the correct way in my eyes . Sometimes I think lines are tight so I dont want to see any movement . Its all about logic and situations dictating perception for me. What I need is a base to start of where the line should be and go from there. Lines move for a reason but they are also set on expectations and perceptions...just one big game IMO...just my take....

As I said Milw with Parra has been about even money on the road before and I just think Maholm is starting to slip lately. Quality starts are something I look at but more interested in seeing how effective a guy is compared to his last start sort of how I try and leap to figure out when a guy is due for a bad start... So Milw offensive improving and Parra off his best start facing Maholm who has gone from extremely effective to slightily better then medicore and the offense has slipped of late with all 3 road wins coming vs opposing bullpens which might not be a bad thing since we are talking Milw....just think Pitt is working on smoke and mirrors of late . Pitt started to hit real well vs LH but lately scored 3 when Zito started , 3 when Glavine started and 5 vs Chuck James.....so the offense has slowed considerable of late vs LHSP.....I guess I feel like Cubbies were ripe for the pickin and Pitt couldnt pull it off.....

I lean MILW cause I think they are more likely to outhit Pitt here..Braun heated up last week and he was terrible vs Billy Hall and Hart was 5-12 . He caught Reds and FLA when they were struggling vs LHP and won both by 1 run 1-0 and 3-2 . He did a great job vs Philly who does have a bunch of LHB but it was also a sweep game for them and Pitt just played better that day . Then SF they edged again winning by 1 run....so he has 3 home wins of 4 by 1 run. His boxscore vs SF was hurt b 1 bad inning and some sloppy defense.

Parra has seen 13 runs scored when he starts away this year and amazingly allowed 12 of them despite pitching ONLY 12 of the 25 innings in those games. So the pen which has been bad allowed just 1 run in 13 innings when he pitched . He faced a very sound LAD lineup vs LHP his last time out which destroyed Malholm who has allowed 35 baserunners his last 3 starts in 17 innings......

:shake:




 
Also Tuck the flaw in the fact you say he pitched well at home in the lone home outing is the fact I would bet he faced most LHB that day vs Milw ..so you have a point about his home and away splits which really aplly for the Pitt LHPs but the fact is Milw shedded its LHB after 2006....
 
Nut, they heated up against Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett both of whom have been pitching very poorly and then they lost. Parra has a road era of 8.25 and a night era of 5.49. Talking about Paul's results on the road as a reasonable indicator of his results pitching at home is classic apples and oranges. This is a little too new age for me. sorry
 
tuck321 said:
Nut, they heated up against Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett both of whom have been pitching very poorly and then they lost. Parra has a road era of 8.25 and a night era of 5.49. Talking about Paul's results on the road as a reasonable indicator of his results pitching at home is classic apples and oranges. This is a little too new age for me. sorry
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Tuck , I certainly dont disagree and I am not trying to convince you of anything other then stating my case and logic. Your points are clearly valid but I have different ways of weighing of information . Doesnt make either of us more right just both comfortable with what we see. All I did last nite was glance at the lines and besides the Mets game 1 what stuck out was Maholm at home facing struggling Milw but did expect to see just Pitt -110..it doesnt look right and had that bad vibe feel to it. So I researched it and found it looks off because it probably is off

There is no doubt that Maholm is head and shoulders better when he is at home then away . What I am saying is that with that mind he couldnt have asked for better situations to take the mound and still he won 3 of 4 by 1 run. I am very comfortable thinking even if Pitt wins its only by 1 run to the point where I just may take MILW +1.5 even paying 200 or so. I guess what I am saying about Maholm being home isnt why he is successfuls it more a combination of opponent and situation. His 2006 start and older starts vs Milw are sound because he gets killed by RH and Milw was built on LH for along time much like Zona who have now become more RHB orientated . I did research the MILW lineup and to be fair it wasnt actually LH or what I expected as Carlos Lee was there and some decent role players who could nit LH like Brady Clark , Jeff Cirillo and Tont Graffanino but they key was that MILW seemed to strand runners and the above players have been replaced by guys a bit better at producing runs imo.....so I was wrong in that sense.....

So Parra has struggled but look at the lineups he faced Houston , StL and NYM . That some tough RH lumber which Pitt probably doesnt have since Bay has struggled awhile vs LHP leaving Nady really until Sanchez finds a consistent groove . Your looking at Tejada , Lee , Berkman and Pence , Pujols , Ludwick , Glaus , Wright , Beltran and Alou wasnt there yet...He just did face a good test in LAD who tends to be real tough on LHP and did a nice job. One could dismiss it and say he was home which is probably true to a degree but it still shows improvement and most of his recent games show that as well only 3 hits vs STL the start before that. So I feel he is headed in the right direction and while Pitt can hit LHP well at times it seems to have slowed down of late after a good run couple weeks back. With Maholm he seems to be regressing some and I cant say its simply pitching on the road.

Am I guessing with MILW?? Clearly I am but I am weighing what I see that Pitt has been somewhat fortunate to get breaks of late and they played ATL as they were scuffling so it loses some luster.

Can I dismiss Wake and Beckett struggling ? Clearly not but it still some sort of a positive to hit Beckett even if he is in a rut. What does Maholm bring that makes him so stuff? Nothing really. He is solid pitcher with avg stuff so its not like Maholm is some big step up in class IMO.

I wasnt dismissing anything you said simply weighing it differently . With a young kid like Parra I think I look at him less rigid then say a Tom Glavine who once he develops a trend its hard to see how it changes at his age past his peak where as a young kid like Parra I have to rely more on what is happening now then in the past . The fact he has an 8 something ERA stinks but again its misleading as well since the Brewers allowed 13 runs in his 3 away starts or 4.33 ERA..so with a raw youngster I guess my point is its a game of chance...Brewers should be improvement @ fenway , rested there pen and got a day off to reflect...

I truly wish you Good Luck on Pitt today:shake:





 
Mets came slow close to breaking it open in the 1st inning I mean could Alou and Delgado hit the ball any harder ??

Played over 9.5 +110 {2.5units} & Over 5 1st 5 innings {1unit} , mets -130 {1unit} , -130 1st 5 innings {0.5 unit} and -1.5 +130 {0.5 unit}....Good Luck on the game fellas !:cheers:
 
alright now that's over... chasing like a mother fucker.
parlayed Detroit (-161)/ chisox +1.5 (-145) = pays about +180, if it loses im fucking done for a long time.
 
lackey/mcgowan under looks so easy... what the hell am i missing? Lackey has been pitching like a stud his first two and i dont see toronto bats getting to him. Mcgowan at home has also been money..
 
Trueblue said:
lackey/mcgowan under looks so easy... what the hell am i missing? Lackey has been pitching like a stud his first two and i dont see toronto bats getting to him. Mcgowan at home has also been money..
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Completely agree. I've looked for a reason this game goes over and I can't find anything. McGowan at home is unreal and Lackey's numbers against the Jays are pretty solid.
 
it's an over ump in toronto.. id lay off or take the angels since lackey is the stronger pitcher...but only 3 games in the season. no play for me..
 
Small play. One of KC's automatic outs is not in the line up. Playing KC ml an plus.5 for .5 a unit based on Robertson's pathetic minor league pitching.
 
Good Luck fellas especially you Jimbo. That game I thought was gonna get ugly in that 1st inning and well it kicked me in the balls ...I dont recall a harder out then Alou 's liner that I have seen this year ...

I guess the angles to worry about in Tor where the bats starting to come alive , Lackeys 1st road start and only 2nd start of the year and only 3 home starts for McGowan contributing to his stats...

At 8 Pm looking at Houston and over . Think this is an interesting start for Dempster coming off high pitch counts 115 and 118 . Sampson has beaten CHI all 3 times he started vs them and think he should be serviceable as Cubs havent hit much vs RHP so far...

Thinking Twins and under . Fading Texas seeing a LHSP with a rookie making his ML debut on the road and the pen struggling especially Wilson the closer.

Was thinking letdown spot for WSox after such a good trip and Sabathia being very good @ Chicago in the past in need of a WIN. Contreras as I have said when he is on it tends to continue for awhile so might just go Under 8 ....


:shake:try and spot back to post my final conclusions...
 
thanks sn; sports betting is a frustrating hobby, but i like it anyway. nothing is really standing out to me in these late games but i'd like to hear what your thinking, maybe u can help me find something i missed.
 
jimbo1227 said:
thanks sn; sports betting is a frustrating hobby, but i like it anyway. nothing is really standing out to me in these late games but i'd like to hear what your thinking, maybe u can help me find something i missed.
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Will I got screwed again through no fault of my own missing out of SF and over think I played exactly what I posted at 8 PM(*already said my peace in the NBA thread)...late think I may roll with oak and cincy again....both blew leads yesterday and games and they are still nice dogs getting similiar numbers with similiar spots..I think Oak is a litttle better to face a LHP then TB is but they havent shown it yet but Big Hurt did hit 2 Hrs . The start of something?? What killed OAK yesterday was pulling Cust and Thomas late before the game went to extras and losing there bats once it got there. Then out @ LAD the Dodgers just giot lucky with a bunch of 2 hits in the 5th to make a 5-2 game 5 up ...Reds just fell asleep after that ......just like the idea of fading LAD vs RH even if its Matt Belisle . Billingsley has been inconsistent , reds are hot and the big sticks are heating up in Cincy.....:cheers:
 
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