Tuesday MLB Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Tuesday, August 18, 2020

2:10 PM
901Colorado Rockies+1½
-120		+173O 9
-125
902Houston Astros+1 Markets-1½
+100		-188U 9
+105
3:10 PM
905San Francisco Giants+1½
+105		+204O 9½
+100
906Los Angeles Angels+1 Markets-1½
-125		-225U 9½
-120
5:10 PM
907Oakland Athletics-1½
+100		-147O 9
-108
908Arizona Diamondbacks+1 Markets+1½
-120		+136U 9
-112
6:05 PM
911Tampa Bay Rays+1½
-190		-105O 8½
+100
912New York Yankees-1½
+165		-105U 8½
-120
6:05 PM
913Cleveland Indians-1½
-120		-190O 8½
-115
914Pittsburgh Pirates+1½
+100		+175U 8½
-105
6:10 PM
917Washington Nationals+1½
-180		+113O 10
+100
918Atlanta Braves+1 Markets-1½
+160		-123U 10
-120
6:10 PM
919Seattle Mariners+1½
+110		+220O 9½
-105
920Los Angeles Dodgers+1 Markets-1½
-130		-245U 9½
-115
6:30 PM
921Philadelphia Phillies-1½
+125		-115O 10½
-110
922Boston Red Sox+1½
-145		+105U 10½
-110
6:35 PM
909Toronto Blue Jays-1½
+115		-130O 9½
-105
910Baltimore Orioles+1 Markets+1½
-135		+120U 9½
-115
7:10 PM
925Milwaukee Brewers+1½
-130		+152O 9
-103
926Minnesota Twins-1½
+110		-165U 9
-117
7:10 PM
927Detroit Tigers+1½
-130		+157O 9
-115
928Chicago White Sox+1 Markets-1½
+110		-170U 9
-105
7:15 PM
929St. Louis Cardinals+167
930Chicago Cubs+1 Markets-182


Tuesday starting pitchers
 
I dunno if I like Rox but that line seems crazy high don’t it?

Greinke must really be on his game tho, I heard in his last start he was telling guys what he was gonna throw!!!
 
I know twinks got to Brubaker in his 1st start but man I watched his first couple relief appearances and his stuff is pretty good. I could definitely see him holding down tribe, carrasco should carve up pirates. For sure lean Ff under there.
 
Snell for sure. I’m sure I’ll take a long look at my teams I seem to always find myself on over the last few weeks in Metropolitans and Stros. Been backing Yu a lot too.
 
Ryno14 said:
Snell for sure. I’m sure I’ll take a long look at my teams I seem to always find myself on over the last few weeks in Metropolitans and Stros. Been backing Yu a lot too.
Click to expand...

Is he still on a limited pitch count? I don’t think he’s been going deep in games
 
Ryno14 said:
Snell for sure. I’m sure I’ll take a long look at my teams I seem to always find myself on over the last few weeks in Metropolitans and Stros. Been backing Yu a lot too.
Click to expand...

i want to back Peterson but he did have shoulder soreness in his last start. I’ve already gotten burned by pitchers facing like 3 batters and tapping out. Maybe try a 1st 5 and hope he can go at least that long
 
I’ll be on the Rockies this afternoon
Senzatela will start here and is 3-0 with a 3.91 ERA and 18 strikeouts this season
this will be Senzatela’s first career start against ‘Stros
Greinke is 14-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 209 strikeouts against Rockies
Houston’s finally above .500, but a lot of those wins came against lower teams like Seattle and San Francisco and I think their bats are going to continue to have issues catching up to Senzatela’s strong arm
 
All this bundy praise and I do think it warranted as fan graphs does good job pointing out why it sustainable. I still think the price is pretty damn crazy for a team who 8-15!! Both pens are bad, like bad to the point is anyone gonna be surprised if either team rips off 4-5 after the 6th? Lol.

I do like halo’s Ff but even laying the half run is -160 which way above my tolerance level for favs! Suppose we could use halo’s Ff in a parlay of some kind? That be about only way I see getting involved. San Fran blew their best chance to cash a nice Ff and even game last night!
 
2daBank said:
I know twinks got to Brubaker in his 1st start but man I watched his first couple relief appearances and his stuff is pretty good. I could definitely see him holding down tribe, carrasco should carve up pirates. For sure lean Ff under there.
Click to expand...

Carrasco has ran into some control issues the last few games, he needs to get that back in check anx this pirates lineup be easy pickings.

Ff u 4.5 for me.
 
Ryno14 said:
Snell -122 large
Bundy -240

May come back and play Peterson later.
Click to expand...

Jesus, you laying the -240? Man I just can’t do that with baseball. Nba playoff favs sure, not the most random of all sports and certainly not with those pens who make this incredibly unpredictable once starters leave imo.

I know we love Pearson but I can’t help but think bout O’s putting up 5 on scherzer. Pearson no mad max yet!!
 
2daBank said:
Jesus, you laying the -240? Man I just can’t do that with baseball. Nba playoff favs sure, not the most random of all sports and certainly not with those pens who make this incredibly unpredictable once starters leave imo.

I know we love Pearson but I can’t help but think bout O’s putting up 5 on scherzer. Pearson no mad max yet!!
Click to expand...

Sorry - Peterson for my favorite Metropolitans. I get not wanting to lay the juice but the SP and Lineup advantage for the Halos is huge for me here. I think this line should be closer to -280.
 
Ryno14 said:
Sorry - Peterson for my favorite Metropolitans. I get not wanting to lay the juice but the SP and Lineup advantage for the Halos is huge for me here. I think this line should be closer to -280.
Click to expand...

Oh my bad. Thought we were talking bout the Jays kid. Forgot bout muts as I often ignore them! Lol

It just against my religion to lay more than -150 even with baseball. Occasional exception with 2 team parlays but can’t imagine laying 240 to win a 100 in this sport!
 
I think If i was gonna consider Halo’s I’d have to go Ff, just to much uncertainty with both those pens!
 
2daBank said:
Oh my bad. Thought we were talking bout the Jays kid. Forgot bout muts as I often ignore them! Lol

It just against my religion to lay more than -150 even with baseball. Occasional exception with 2 team parlays but can’t imagine laying 240 to win a 100 in this sport!
Click to expand...

Nothing wrong with that. I play my games regardless of line if I still have an edge. Halos at -265 (which I see some places) wouldn’t have been a large enough edge for me to play them. I certainly do go for the 2 team ML parlays but I didn’t have anything I loved enough to go with them. Guess I could’ve looked cross sport
 
Ryno14 said:
Nothing wrong with that. I play my games regardless of line if I still have an edge. Halos at -265 (which I see some places) wouldn’t have been a large enough edge for me to play them. I certainly do go for the 2 team ML parlays but I didn’t have anything I loved enough to go with them. Guess I could’ve looked cross sport
Click to expand...

Certainly not saying my way right or wrong, it just right for me. The crazy thing I’ve found over years and years is my win percentage on bigger favs really not much better than on sides and totals between -120/+120! lol. Freaking goofy. Strictly baseball I’m talking bout. I love me some nba playoff favs! I’ll lay juice all bubble!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Certainly not saying my way right or wrong, it just right for me. The crazy thing I’ve found over years and years is my win percentage on bigger favs really not much better than on sides and totals between -120/+120! lol. Freaking goofy.
Click to expand...

You certainly have to hit a higher % of high juiced plays, otherwise they’re killers. That’s why cappers records rarely matter in baseball. Of course, that’s for flat bettors and I’m against the grain on that as well. If I like a play more, I put more on it. Just how I bet and I’m sure a lot disagree on that as well
 
Ryno14 said:
Snell for sure. I’m sure I’ll take a long look at my teams I seem to always find myself on over the last few weeks in Metropolitans and Stros. Been backing Yu a lot too.
Click to expand...

pretty big move on Snell as I was considering him as a dog last night and now he's favored on the road in the Bronx. Think i'm looking at NYY now since Tanaka has looked pretty good to me
 
Ryno14 said:
You certainly have to hit a higher % of high juiced plays, otherwise they’re killers. That’s why cappers records rarely matter in baseball. Of course, that’s for flat bettors and I’m against the grain on that as well. If I like a play more, I put more on it. Just how I bet and I’m sure a lot disagree on that as well
Click to expand...

I used to be strictly flat bettor with bases cause I just thought I wasn’t very good weighting plays, I have worked on that a bunch and have started using a more sliding scale. Problem being I still struggle with a play I “love” the most often my worst! Lol. Nfl I often instantly scratch the 1st game that I just love soon as I see it!
 
GWarner27 said:
pretty big move on Snell as I was considering him as a dog last night and now he's favored on the road in the Bronx. Think i'm looking at NYY now since Tanaka has looked pretty good to me
Click to expand...

Damn, I never noticed he was a dog, guess I was so wrapped up in the blues game I missed it. I’d have prob been all over tampons as dogs. Not feeling them as much as favs. Ff under is on my radar.
 
GWarner27 said:
pretty big move on Snell as I was considering him as a dog last night and now he's favored on the road in the Bronx. Think i'm looking at NYY now since Tanaka has looked pretty good to me
Click to expand...

Yeah - knew I liked them -wish I would have gotten them in before bed
 
Snell has never really had much success at yankee stadium. I’m sure it be helpful yanks missing 3 of what would normally be top 4-5 in their everyday lineup!! .797 career ops against him at this park.

Ff under is where I lean.
 
2daBank said:
Certainly not saying my way right or wrong, it just right for me. The crazy thing I’ve found over years and years is my win percentage on bigger favs really not much better than on sides and totals between -120/+120! lol. Freaking goofy. Strictly baseball I’m talking bout. I love me some nba playoff favs! I’ll lay juice all bubble!! Lol
Click to expand...

In my opinion, if you‘re confident enough to lay -240, then you‘re confident enough to buy the RL, which is what you should do since the juice will be at least much more reasonable. Just my view.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
In my opinion, if you‘re confident enough to lay -240, then you‘re confident enough to buy the RL, which is what you should do since the juice will be at least much more reasonable. Just my view.
Click to expand...

Probably true, although I don’t play many full game RLs either, few exceptions in certain parks with high totals. I know when I’m on a +150 or higher dog even if I lose if it a 1 run game I felt I made the right play.
 
+105 on Tanaka the 1st 5 is somewhat appealing to me. Most certainly a game I would be making a case for either side at plus money.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
In my opinion, if you‘re confident enough to lay -240, then you‘re confident enough to buy the RL, which is what you should do since the juice will be at least much more reasonable. Just my view.
Click to expand...

Probably true but I don’t really mess with a lot of RL unless it’s a road team. Nothing worse than losing a -1.5 when the team wins. Maybe I’ll make a note to start tracking it for awhile and see how it goes.
 
Ryno14 said:
Probably true but I don’t really mess with a lot of RL unless it’s a road team. Nothing worse than losing a -1.5 when the team wins. Maybe I’ll make a note to start tracking it for awhile and see how it goes.
Click to expand...

Only home teams I lay the 1.5 is in one those band boxes with a high total.
 
Ryno14 said:
Probably true but I don’t really mess with a lot of RL unless it’s a road team. Nothing worse than losing a -1.5 when the team wins. Maybe I’ll make a note to start tracking it for awhile and see how it goes.
Click to expand...

yeah it'll definitely save juice, but those 1x losses that would have been wins are brutal mentally and for the ole bankroll
 
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