Tuesday MLB Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Tuesday, August 11, 2020

6:37 PM
951Miami Marlins+1½
-130		+158O 8½
-105
952Toronto Blue Jays-1½
+110		-172U 8½
-115
6:40 PM
953Kansas City Royals+1½
-120		+170O 9
+100
954Cincinnati Reds-1½
+100		-185U 9
-120
7:05 PM
955Atlanta Braves+1½
-130		+141O 10
-115
956New York Yankees-1½
+110		-153U 10
-105
7:05 PM
957Baltimore Orioles+1½
-130		+164O 9
-105
958Philadelphia Phillies-1½
+110		-178U 9
-115
7:10 PM
959Chicago Cubs+1½
-160		+134O 8
-120
960Cleveland Indians-1½
+140		-145U 8
+100
7:10 PM
961Chicago White Sox-1½
+140		-108O 9½
+100
962Detroit Tigers+1 Markets+1½
-160		-102U 9½
-120
7:10 PM
963Washington Nationals-1½
+120		-142O 8
-105
964New York Mets+1 Markets+1½
-140		+131U 8
-115
8:40 PM
971Arizona Diamondbacks+1½
-190		-103O 11
-105
972Colorado Rockies+1 Markets-1½
+165		-107U 11
-115
9:05 PM
973Seattle Mariners+1½
-155		+132O 8
-115
974Texas Rangers+1 Markets-1½
+135		-143U 8
-105
9:40 PM
977Oakland Athletics+1½
-165		+120O 9
-115
978Los Angeles Angels+1 Markets-1½
+145		-130U 9
-105
9:40 PM
979San Diego Padres+1½
-135		+167O 8½
-120
980Los Angeles Dodgers+1 Markets-1½
+115		-182U 8½
+100

Tuesday starting pitchers
 
Ryno14 said:
Would be shocked if I’m not against my Cubs tomorrow after the long layoff.
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I’m assuming Lester threw a side session or something? They wernt under quarantine at least. Kinda screams under if Lester is on. As do most tribe games, lol.
 
2daBank said:
I’m assuming Lester threw a side session or something? They wernt under quarantine at least. Kinda screams under if Lester is on. As do most tribe games, lol.
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This is going to be ironic, but you love Lester way more than I do. I need him to prove it a little more this year to know if this cutter change is real or not. Think he’s still solid and the shortened season helps him more than most. However, I saw Clevinger won’t be starting anymore, so that changes things for me
 
Ryno14 said:
This is going to be ironic, but you love Lester way more than I do. I need him to prove it a little more this year to know if this cutter change is real or not. Think he’s still solid and the shortened season helps him more than most. However, I saw Clevinger won’t be starting anymore, so that changes things for me
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Lol. I wouldn’t go so far as to say I love him. The only time I recall praising him was when he was about to face cards and that had way more to do with our inept lineup being terrible against crafty lefties than loving him!! Kinda same here, more about not trusting tribe to score runs than thinking he dominate.
 
Castillo been running into some bad babip luck this year and it has come when guys been on base. His hard contact rate against is lowest it been in years and soft contact higher than last season. His velo up a mph on his 4 seamer and sinker. Gotta think he has better results coming.

This bubic kid for kc is their 3 rated prospect and while it seemed like they maybe rushed him having never pitched above high a he has held his own vs both Chicago clubs. His fastball rates as his weakest pitch according to scouts but it has played so far and he supposedly has excellent secondary stuff. He doesn’t walk many which I love. Another thing that would serve him well in this badbox is he been inducing a surprising amount of ground balls, my only concern there is that may be a outlier as he never been a ground ball pitcher before. He also a lefty which reds havnt hit as well thus far although I’m not sure that will continue being the case as they have raised their ops against lefties From .680 to .725 the last week.

I don’t love unders in this park but I could def see playing the Ff under here if I can get a reasonable number.
 
Really starting to like Cobb again, like he finally remembered how to pitch or is healthy? Don’t think I can play Ff under in that park when it hot humid and wind blowing out tho. Def Lean balty at the big number.
 
Was pretty crazy how many runs we got at coors yesterday with fairly low number of extra base hits and I think both HRs were solo shots. Revolving door of singles! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I’m leaning to playing snakes but has gallen pitched at coors yet?
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Ok he has pitched once at coors, didn’t have great success but I rather that than backing a guy who has never pitched there. He wasn’t awful, only went 4 innings spreading out 9 hits and a walk but only allowed 2 runs. Not worst performance at that place!
 
Crazy it sounds I actually lean Ff under at coors but no chance I play it, terrible ump for a under too!! If the starters pitch well for 3-4 innings I’ll def consider playing the over live.
 
For now just playing the snakes, I was hoping to get a small plus but I can live with -110. Or do I get greedy and play snakes Ff -.5 +130?
 
2daBank said:
Castillo been running into some bad babip luck this year and it has come when guys been on base. His hard contact rate against is lowest it been in years and soft contact higher than last season. His velo up a mph on his 4 seamer and sinker. Gotta think he has better results coming.

This bubic kid for kc is their 3 rated prospect and while it seemed like they maybe rushed him having never pitched above high a he has held his own vs both Chicago clubs. His fastball rates as his weakest pitch according to scouts but it has played so far and he supposedly has excellent secondary stuff. He doesn’t walk many which I love. Another thing that would serve him well in this badbox is he been inducing a surprising amount of ground balls, my only concern there is that may be a outlier as he never been a ground ball pitcher before. He also a lefty which reds havnt hit as well thus far although I’m not sure that will continue being the case as they have raised their ops against lefties From .680 to .725 the last week.

I don’t love unders in this park but I could def see playing the Ff under here if I can get a reasonable number.
Click to expand...

Park scares me but playing Ff u4.5 even money.
 
2daBank said:
Ok he has pitched once at coors, didn’t have great success but I rather that than backing a guy who has never pitched there. He wasn’t awful, only went 4 innings spreading out 9 hits and a walk but only allowed 2 runs. Not worst performance at that place!
Click to expand...

i guess he's a decent K% guy, but 9 hits and a walk at Coors in 4 IP only costing 2 runs sounds like he got insanely lucky
 
GWarner27 said:
i guess he's a decent K% guy, but 9 hits and a walk at Coors in 4 IP only costing 2 runs sounds like he got insanely lucky
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Bunch of singles and pitching out of trouble, like i said wasn’t a good performance but I rather see that than back a guy that has never pitched there. That the thing about coors, you gonna have to pitch out of some jams.
 
2daBank said:
Snakes rocked Freeland several times last year and their bats really appear to be coming around.
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Freeland had a tough 2019 and I'm not convinced by his start to 2020, but what about ARI bats are coming around?

12 runs yesterday against unhealthy Gray at Coors and then a 4-run 9th on Sunday against the bad SD pen since they were up 9-1 doesn't convince me of much after watching how toothless that lineup has been this year
 
GWarner27 said:
Freeland had a tough 2019 and I'm not convinced by his start to 2020, but what about ARI bats are coming around?

12 runs yesterday against unhealthy Gray at Coors and then a 4-run 9th on Sunday against the bad SD pen since they were up 9-1 doesn't convince me of much after watching how toothless that lineup has been this year
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They have to start somewhere and they a better lineup than they have performed, most their troubles been not producing with risp which has looked better to me going back to their last home stand and They have Plenty of bats with a good track record against lefties. For whatever reason they been incapable of hitting much at San Diego the entire year, I don’t think their struggles there enough to indite them everywhere but to each is own,
 
agree Halos number is huge, especially to give the hottest team in baseball, but i'm not sure Fiers is backable away from OAK.

LAA isn't the pitcher's park it might have been in the past with the RF wall changes and Fiers K numbers are way down including not striking anybody out in his first start of the year vs LAA. He's been better lately in his last two starts @SEA and home for TEX, but i'm currently struggling with my desire to play him as he tries to get by smoking hot Trout and Ohtani with no velocity

I'm not a bundy believer and Buttrey nor that bullpen are lights out at the back, but if you play OAK you're gonna have to be confident Fiers hangs around until he exits
 
I’m not really looking to back A’s either. I just can’t lay that with laa. Pretty sure it just a pass for me.
 
anyone know what kind of pitch count/limitations mad max be on tonight if any? I couldn’t find anything other than he threw a pen session over the weekend. I considered Ff under but I can’t trust porcello to put up another performance like he did last time vs Nats (although I suspect he be decent), seems like nats at -140ish be solid (a good 30-40 cents cheap actually which why I’m curious bout max) if scherzer can throw 100 pitches.
 
2daBank said:
They have to start somewhere and they a better lineup than they have performed, most their troubles been not producing with risp which has looked better to me going back to their last home stand and They have Plenty of bats with a good track record against lefties. For whatever reason they been incapable of hitting much at San Diego the entire year, I don’t think their struggles there enough to indite them everywhere but to each is own,
Click to expand...

Petco is a tough place to hit, but two series there and then the home games at a hitter's paradise in ARI doesn't leave much to make an opinion

Walker leading the league in doubles, but Escobar not doing much at all hitting on the interstate and then Peralta moving all around from 2-8 in the order. I like LoVullo, but i think that offense is a play against for me right now
 
GWarner27 said:
Petco is a tough place to hit, but two series there and then the home games at a hitter's paradise in ARI doesn't leave much to make an opinion

Walker leading the league in doubles, but Escobar not doing much at all hitting on the interstate and then Peralta moving all around from 2-8 in the order. I like LoVullo, but i think that offense is a play against for me right now
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I think this series and matchups a perfect time to back them. I been wrong before tho (not last night). If they ever gonna get going this the spot imo and it don’t hurt I like Gallen considerably more than Freeland.
 
2daBank said:
anyone know what kind of pitch count/limitations mad max be on tonight if any? I couldn’t find anything other than he threw a pen session over the weekend. I considered Ff under but I can’t trust porcello to put up another performance like he did last time vs Nats (although I suspect he be decent), seems like nats at -140ish be solid (a good 30-40 cents cheap actually which why I’m curious bout max) if scherzer can throw 100 pitches.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t think he is on one. It couldnt be that serious if he is already good to go, but it was a hammy so you just never know
 
i had Gallen circled as i figured he'd be dogged, but have had good success backing COL so far this season as they've been getting pretty disrespectful lines so far. Woke up to Freeland favored and was disappointed as i had switched to thinking i'd back him, now ARI is a small fave so i think i'm hoping more Gallen money comes in so I can catch a + on Freeland.

Gallen undoubtedly the better strikeout guy, but Freeland better control and that's important at Coors. Freeland still a bit hard to predict as we don't know if he's back to 2018 form or this was just a good start to a bizarre season
 
2daBank said:
anyone know what kind of pitch count/limitations mad max be on tonight if any? I couldn’t find anything other than he threw a pen session over the weekend. I considered Ff under but I can’t trust porcello to put up another performance like he did last time vs Nats (although I suspect he be decent), seems like nats at -140ish be solid (a good 30-40 cents cheap actually which why I’m curious bout max) if scherzer can throw 100 pitches.
Click to expand...

makes sense for the line to be low as i think the market sees some risk.

Part of why i don't touch favorites very often cuz if he goes out early your road -137 probably becomes a +137 yet you're stuck giving odds to the sportsbook
 
Despite good outings so far Freeland hard hit rate even higher than it was last year thus far. His babip been redic low so far. I guess we see but I like snakes chances.
 
GWarner27 said:
got any clue what we're seeing after Clippard goes maybe 2 for MIN?
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Smeltzer followed him last time and pitched 2.2 after that it went the usual suspects with Wisler, Duffy, May, Romo in 9th. Not sure if same plan today? Smeltzer started and went 4 innings at kc but he has had 3 days since then and he not scheduled so I’d assume he the best bet to follow.
 
Maybe nevermind. I see smeltzer scheduled for Friday as of now so unless that changes prob won’t be him.
 
Could be wisler, he goes more than 1 plenty and has had 3 days off. I’d certainly expect he pitches a few innings at some point but don’t know if he be second out?
 
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