Tuesday Hoops with Handy

handy

Pretty much a regular
Hi there,

I hope you're all doing well and not too many of you got destroyed with the Patriots and Saints on Sunday. Wow, I thought I was going to nail both games and then the Indianapolis Colts came alive. Oh well.

Hoops have been treating me pretty well of late. I've had a couple of tough losses with some "Wounded Bears" but by and large things are going well. I'm not posting very much these days as I simply am not interested in writing a daily thread but from time to time I'm going to drop by with some NBA thoughts.

First off I simply don't understand this Super Bowl Line of Indy -7? Prior to Sunday's games I was able to pick up an early line of AFC -5.5 and you better believe I jumped all over that. I have no idea which team most are going to bet but I would assume it's the Colts. However, as I surf the message boards and talk to friends I'm finding a lot of love for the Bears +7. I just think you have to be crazy to bet against the Colts in this game. One number that is really eye popping is -250 ML for a 7 point spread. That number should be more like -340? I believe the Colts roll in this game simply by stacking the box and forcing Grossman to win it through the air. Plus, the Colts have arguably the greatest clutch field goal kicker of all time in Vinatieri. I don't know man if you like the Bears I would be very careful making that bet. If Grossman gives the Colts a couple of short fields it's going to be lights out. I hear a lot of people talk about the Bears defense. Yeah, so the Saints didn't get it done in adverse conditions but lets not forget what the Seahawks did to them as well as the other teams which faced them the last few games of the year. Plsu, I believe they're minus Brown for this game who plays in the secondary. All right enough about that. Good luck with what ever you're going to play but please don't tell me you have a system because I don't give a shit about it.

As for the NBA there is one line which has me shaking my head. That's the Suns -5 at Washington. I know the Suns are rolling and have won a shit load of games in a row but this number is wrong folks. Think about this for a moment. When Washington played at Phoenix a few weeks back they were a 9/9.5/10 pt. underdog and they were playing the second of a back to back after beating Sacramento the night before. Now the simple way to back out the line would be to adjust the spread 6 points when the game is played on the Wizards home court. Anyways, the line was wrong the last time these teams met as the Wizards won the game outright and tonight its clearly off by at least 2 and maybe 3 points. I believe the Wizards are live in this game playing at home in a no D type of game. I don't want to hear about revenge and all that bull shit. It's just another game on the schedule and lets not forget that for all the success the Suns have had they've had little success on the road vs. healthy above .500 teams. That being said I'm looking to bet on the Wizards tonight.

Dallas at Orlando - Dallas opens as a 5 points favorite on the road. Well guess what I have no interest betting against the Mavs vs. a Magic team playing their fourth game in five nights. I don't know about you but I would be surprised if Dallas loses this game as they seem to be able to pull out all the stops to win almost every game they play. Betting against them tonight vs. a club in a bad spot wouldn't seem on paper to be a bright idea. I'm not laying the chalk but I don't want the points. In other words good luck and enjoy your headache because that's what +/- 5 probably is in this game.

New Orleans at Philadelphia - I have no interest in this game. Seriously, imagine having to sit down and try to watch this snoozer? If you bet this game I would strongly recommend you making sure you have plenty of beer and it's cold because you're going to need it.

Denver at Seattle- Denver -2 on the road playing four games in five nights? Tell me this doesn't have "Sucker Bet" written all over it. I don't know about you but I have little to no interest in GAMBLING on this one.

Milwaukee at Clippers - I don't know what to make of this game but the Clippers laying 9.5/10 against any NBA team in my opinion is a dangerous bet. I'm not about to bet on a depleted Bucks team but LAC is such a coin flip these days that I don't know how anyone bets them as a favorite with any type of confidence?

Atlanta at Chicago - Well the Hawks are just what the Bulls need. The Bulls need to beat this team like a rented mule and get out of their mini slump. This Bulls team is so over rated. I wish I had unloaded on the Pacers last night. I did play them but for a very small amount since I hate laying chalk but -1 was worth it.

College Hoops

The one game which bettors are sure to jump on is BC -1.5 at home over Florida State. BC lost their big man Sean Williams for the season for some sort of academic or team rules violation. Anyways, this BC team isn't very good without him. I'm not sure taking +1.5 on the road is a great bet but I want nothing to do with BC right now as I believe the value is in going against them.

Indiana at Illinois- Well here is your classic big 10 "Sucker Bet." Sure seems like I see about 5 of these every week in the big ten. Here we have an Illinois team in desperate need of a win vs. a decent Indiana team which has proven they can play on the road in this conference. It sure looks real easy taking Indiana and laying a couple points but I simply say "Buyer Beware". I'm not betting this game as Illinois has done nothing to impress me.

Well for those of you following the Australian Open it sure looks like Serena is Cinderella. However, I don't buy it for one minute. I don't think there is any chance she wins this tournament. Sharapova is likely waiting in the wings to destroy Vadisova or Serena. I have no doubt Sharapova is going to the Finals. For some odd reason Clijsters is the favorite by the odds which makes absolutely no sense to me. You're telling me if Sharapova and Clijsters face each other Clijsters will be favored? Bull shit.

Well that's enough for this special edition of talking sports with Handy.

Good luck and as always life is dandy being a cross sports capper named Handy!!
 
nice write up. if Wash can beat Pho in Pho, I think they at least have a shot at home. plus the 5 pts don't hurt. good luck.
 
Gl Handy! I don't think Den is a sucker bet. Sea has been winning at home lately. As for Suns and mavs, Both are having one hell of a long winning streak. As history will tell us, it will come to an end soon. I think the best course to take is to wait for them to lose, then ride a new streak again.
 
I absolutely believe Denver is a "Sucker Bet." I'm not sure how you can make the case it's not? Denver is playing 4 games in 5 days and laying points on the road. That's your classic NBA sucker bet regardless of the matchup. This could be the classic mail it in game for the Nuggets. I have no idea what's going to happen but laying points on the road with a tired team is a formula for disaster. Don't forget the Nuggets also played OT in Houston the other day. They're playing well but it's not easy winning on the road and the oddsmakers certainly don't think it will be tonight.
 
Dude. You were on that other cap site and got banned. I'm convinced you thrive on negative attention. I hope you keep your comportment clean on this site, but I'll choose to ignore your posts. Sucker bets, wounded bears. All these capper angles make no sense to me. GL to you.
 
Handy,

I agree Denver would normally be a "sucker bet" in this spot. However, due to the facts that Melo just came back tonight and should be well rested and it looks like Iverson has a little extra bounce in his step with Melo back, I have a feeling this Denver team might go on a little run in the next couple weeks, in any case its a no play for me. Actually may stay away from the NBA completely tomorrow, only play I am looking to make is Auburn at home to Bama, Bama coming off an emotional win and has played atrocious on the road, will take my chances with the small home dog.
 
malibu$urfer said:
Dude. You were on that other cap site and got banned. I'm convinced you thrive on negative attention. I hope you keep your comportment clean on this site, but I'll choose to ignore your posts. Sucker bets, wounded bears. All these capper angles make no sense to me. GL to you.

I understand what you mean Malibu, and certainly everybody should be aware of replying in a way that spreads positive vibes. Handy does come across quite rash some times, when other people don't agree.

On the other hand, I enjoy Handys threads, and I would enjoy having him around - and I am not sure he meant any disrespect. I can understand what he means by sucker bet in this case.
 
handy said:
I absolutely believe Denver is a "Sucker Bet." I'm not sure how you can make the case it's not? Denver is playing 4 games in 5 days and laying points on the road. That's your classic NBA sucker bet regardless of the matchup. This could be the classic mail it in game for the Nuggets. I have no idea what's going to happen but laying points on the road with a tired team is a formula for disaster. Don't forget the Nuggets also played OT in Houston the other day. They're playing well but it's not easy winning on the road and the oddsmakers certainly don't think it will be tonight.

Btw Handy, did you check the sticky on playing 4 games in 5 days?
 
malibu$urfer said:
Dude. You were on that other cap site and got banned. I'm convinced you thrive on negative attention. I hope you keep your comportment clean on this site, but I'll choose to ignore your posts. Sucker bets, wounded bears. All these capper angles make no sense to me. GL to you.


Handy believes in his capping style, I would understand that not everyone agrees with his ways, me included at times. HOWEVER I DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD BE BASHING HIM NOR HIS CAPPING STYLE without giving a sensible explanation why you say what you say. Also, I notice you have a knack of coming into peoples thread and contradicting. It would be good to start your own thread, and prove how good a capper you are.

Just a friendly advice, if you enjoy this forum you gotta tone down a bit, a lot of people here are not happy with your ways. trust me on this.
 
malibu$urfer said:
Dude. You were on that other cap site and got banned. I'm convinced you thrive on negative attention. I hope you keep your comportment clean on this site, but I'll choose to ignore your posts. Sucker bets, wounded bears. All these capper angles make no sense to me. GL to you.

Everyone starts with a clean slate at CTG...whatever history anyone has with another...leave it there.

Nice analysis Handy...good all-around read today...interesting games tonight
 
B.A.R. said:
Everyone starts with a clean slate at CTG...whatever history anyone has with another...leave it there.

Nice analysis Handy...good all-around read today...interesting games tonight

:cheers:
 
handy said:
They're playing well but it's not easy winning on the road and the oddsmakers certainly don't think it will be tonight.

how do you know this ??
i believe SEA is the sucker bet being well rested and playing a team that's not!
 
Appreciate the great writeups as usual Handy - thank you. I wonder why people have to come in this thread and criticize you for doing so?
 
I don't see any plays for pro hoops. So no win no lose situation for you. I like :D

BOL whatever you decide to play.
 
I think people take way too much offense to his use of the word "sucker bet", big deal. Handy is calling like it is, he is not saying don't play the Denver Nuggets, or to actually play the other side on the Sonics, he is saying it is not as easy as it looks, buyer beware because the Nuggets are in a bad spot on the schedule. I myself will stay away from this game, just too many unknown variables concerning the chemistry of the Nuggets, like I said, I would not be surpised to see the Nuggets go on a little streak here in the next couple weeks as they seem to really think they have a legitimate shot to win the west. A confident team is a dangerous team in my opinion.
 
handy said:
I absolutely believe Denver is a "Sucker Bet." I'm not sure how you can make the case it's not? Denver is playing 4 games in 5 days and laying points on the road. That's your classic NBA sucker bet regardless of the matchup. This could be the classic mail it in game for the Nuggets. I have no idea what's going to happen but laying points on the road with a tired team is a formula for disaster. Don't forget the Nuggets also played OT in Houston the other day. They're playing well but it's not easy winning on the road and the oddsmakers certainly don't think it will be tonight.

I understand all that. But I think the shot in the arm they've gotten from getting all their players back continues into tonight.

for what it's worth regarding 4th in 5s....

* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights are 25-14-1 ATS and 19-22 SU.
* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights AWAY are 17-11-1 ATS and 11-18 SU
* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights AWAY vs an opponent with rest are 8-5-1 ATS and 3-11 SU
* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights AWAY vs an opponent with no rest are 8-8 ATS and 8-8 SU
* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights HOME are 8-3 ATS and 8-3 SU.
* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights HOME vs an opponent with rest are 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU
* Teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights HOME vs an opponent with no rest are 6-3 ATS and 6-3 SU.

smh212's numbers.

:shake:
 
Hi Handy--- That Patriot game was a tough one. I was on them pretty good at 3.5. The Colts won the game though, the Pats didn't lose it. Manning was so precision you have to hand it to him. It seems like they have 100 wide receivers open all the time.
How bout that massive 233 over/under in the Washington game.
I like the +5 also. Good Luck!
 
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