Tuesday Discussion Thread

First one off the list, the Detroit Tigers have gone over 3.5Ks 15 out of their last 15 games, and 27 out of last 30. Blalock has done this twice in 5 legitimate starts vs AZ and NYY. Think the -138 at FD is worth drinking the juice a bit.

1725973739038.png
 
Well yesterday was a shit show, it never good when I wake up saying “I shoulda only played nfl!” lol. Hit my prop on that game, split the fucking Bello props missed outs by 1, festa wasn’t very good so of course gets yanked super early by Rocco right when he was finding his strikeout groove, if that prick woulda let him pitch the 5th think it 50/50 he woulda got the k’s. Then somehow dodgers get punked and don’t score any runs til 5th and come up one short. Gotta do better than that!
 
Bido o3.5 Ks +100 @ DK

Pitched 2 innings in Detroit out of the pen but has been reinserted into the rotation for tonight. He struck out 6 vs Houston on June 23rd.

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Anyone know what exactly going on with Bido? Last scheduled start they put someone in his place then he pitched 2 innings of relief. Looks like he due to start again tonight at Houston, wonder if they were just giving his arm a little rest? Do we gotta worry bout him only throwing a few innings tonight? Cause if he back to normal starts then his k’s a slam dunk even against a Houston offense getting healthy.

This an interesting game with my guy Arrenghetti really fucking up a huge day last time out getting shelled and not even making it out the 1st inning in cincy! Not gonna hold it to much against him cause he been a mfin cash cow for us! The only real problem is books have seemed to catch on lining his k’s at 6.5 and juiced to over. That a pretty good number imo, even assuming he bounces back here and I think he will, having to pay juice to get 7+ k’s on a sneaky tough A’s lineup isn’t much value, he can certainly get it im just not real sure that price a long term winning play?
 
Here is one to look at. Ollie from Marlins averaging a k an inning. Watched him pitch twice and he is a strikeout pitcher. I see 3.5 with high juice but I like it.
Also like flor +136
 
Have you looked at rangers/snakes yet @peelpub94 Or anyone else that feels like sharing!!

Rangers lineup has actually been on one their little hot streaks they have had way fewer of this year. We got the cheese on k’s and outs with gallen last time out and he sure addressed one the issues I thought he been having, he threw 90% 1st strikes last game! But even with that he still walked 4! So it took him 100 pitches to complete 6. Not horrible in general but when you take into account how any decent tho has been able to throw 6 innings vs giants the last month I sure woulda liked to see him go deeper than 6. The k’s were certainly there, for whatever reason he needing to punch more out while going deeper into counts, he isn’t getting a lot the quick outs I used to think of him getting so he could pitch deeper into games.

Him and Eovaldi both priced at 17.5 outs but gallen carrying the steeper juice. Im almost more tempted to play gallen ov 5.5 k’s at +110 and look at Eovaldi going over the out total. Feel fairly confident if gallen goes 6 innings he will get 6+ k’s, and I think he could come short of 6 innings and still possibly have the k’s. Rangers havnt been striking out at a high clip lately but they have also faced a lot of bad pitching this past week! Gallen has a good history getting these guys to expand the zone so the key gonna be that 1st pitch strike and whether rangers take it or are swinging early? I’m gonna assume his 1st pitch strike rate will be good, not 90% again but back closer to what we expect from him in the mid 60s not the 50% bull shit he has had for large part the season!

Hey @peelpub94 , how bouts you give us numbers on rangers pitches seen per at bat! That be super!!!

When it comes to Eovaldi it takes a really special kind of pitcher for me to even consider going over the out total vs snakes right now but I think he that guy and think this a good spot to maybe cool them off for a day, especially with that splitter he throws a lot, that feels to me like a pitch he could get a red hot lineup to roll over on a bunch! He has a great history in zona, years ago so nothing to do with lineup he be facing just the fact he seems to like pitching in the dry air!

Think this could be a rare pitchers duel with couple offenses who come in pretty hot, snakes have the best ops the last 15 days but cooled a bit the last week facing some good pitching in Houston. Rangers come in super hot the last 7 days but again that 4 games vs angels crappy pitching and for most part not seeing best yanks had to offer mostly beating up their pen. I like both these starters to slow the offenses down tonight. So besides the props also looking at the Ff u4.5 which at -110 or so I think has lot of value.
 
bulldogs said:
Here is one to look at. Ollie from Marlins averaging a k an inning. Watched him pitch twice and he is a strikeout pitcher. I see 3.5 with high juice but I like it.
Also like flor +136
Click to expand...

I’ll check it out bud, I had no clue who the fuck he was so kinda just glossed over it, I made that same mistake yesterday but I was so exhausted! Got lot of rest and feeling refreshed now!
 
Anyone care to take a stab at Taj line tonight? I’m going to at some point but I been putting it off., last game was another interesting outing. We got the Ff over with ease but after the bad inning he settled down and looked like that dude again as he mowed down the twins!! Twins annoy me to no end so I dunno if that was Taj finding himself again or just the shitbox twins just bailing him out chasing shit a foot off the plate?!?!?
 
bulldogs said:
Here is one to look at. Ollie from Marlins averaging a k an inning. Watched him pitch twice and he is a strikeout pitcher. I see 3.5 with high juice but I like it.
Also like flor +136
Click to expand...

I don’t think ya can pay the -170 to the over, I get his last 2 starts have been pretty impressive there are things to be concerned about. He seems to mostly be a 2 pitch pitcher (prob why he 29 and I havnt heard of him!) while pitching for A’s and even after 2 good starts this year his swinging strike rate is rather low which you would expect from a guy throwing 50 something percent 94ish mph fastballs. His curve does seem to be pretty dang good and I don’t think many pirates hitting curves, in fact they have lot of swing and miss vs it. I think the only way to go here would play him 5+ k’s +130 rather than pay the -170 he gets 4. Cause it really comes down to the walks, he has been able to get fairly deep into games despite that issue and against better lineups than pirates. If you trust he can stay out of a 35 pitch inning that gets him yanked early and he can go 5+ innings I think there is def value in the 5+ *130, more so than needing for at -170 cause in all reality he either continues getting deep enough into games and he fans 5 easy, or the walks catch up to him and pirates hit a few fastballs after he gives them free passes then he won’t get to 4 anyways imo. That the way I’d approach it, gonna look at pirates lineup and see how many k’s I can find or how much I have to worry bout walks biting him in the ass! Def not a bad look just gotta find a way to approach it that makes sense cause just don’t think ov3.5 -170 the way to go.
 
2daBank said:
Have you looked at rangers/snakes yet @peelpub94 Or anyone else that feels like sharing!!

Rangers lineup has actually been on one their little hot streaks they have had way fewer of this year. We got the cheese on k’s and outs with gallen last time out and he sure addressed one the issues I thought he been having, he threw 90% 1st strikes last game! But even with that he still walked 4! So it took him 100 pitches to complete 6. Not horrible in general but when you take into account how any decent tho has been able to throw 6 innings vs giants the last month I sure woulda liked to see him go deeper than 6. The k’s were certainly there, for whatever reason he needing to punch more out while going deeper into counts, he isn’t getting a lot the quick outs I used to think of him getting so he could pitch deeper into games.

Him and Eovaldi both priced at 17.5 outs but gallen carrying the steeper juice. Im almost more tempted to play gallen ov 5.5 k’s at +110 and look at Eovaldi going over the out total. Feel fairly confident if gallen goes 6 innings he will get 6+ k’s, and I think he could come short of 6 innings and still possibly have the k’s. Rangers havnt been striking out at a high clip lately but they have also faced a lot of bad pitching this past week! Gallen has a good history getting these guys to expand the zone so the key gonna be that 1st pitch strike and whether rangers take it or are swinging early? I’m gonna assume his 1st pitch strike rate will be good, not 90% again but back closer to what we expect from him in the mid 60s not the 50% bull shit he has had for large part the season!

Hey @peelpub94 , how bouts you give us numbers on rangers pitches seen per at bat! That be super!!!

When it comes to Eovaldi it takes a really special kind of pitcher for me to even consider going over the out total vs snakes right now but I think he that guy and think this a good spot to maybe cool them off for a day, especially with that splitter he throws a lot, that feels to me like a pitch he could get a red hot lineup to roll over on a bunch! He has a great history in zona, years ago so nothing to do with lineup he be facing just the fact he seems to like pitching in the dry air!

Think this could be a rare pitchers duel with couple offenses who come in pretty hot, snakes have the best ops the last 15 days but cooled a bit the last week facing some good pitching in Houston. Rangers come in super hot the last 7 days but again that 4 games vs angels crappy pitching and for most part not seeing best yanks had to offer mostly beating up their pen. I like both these starters to slow the offenses down tonight. So besides the props also looking at the Ff u4.5 which at -110 or so I think has lot of value.
Click to expand...
1725987888962.png
 
Another plus in your favor with Olier is he been throwing 90+ pitches every start and despite the walks he must be pretty careful with the fastball cause he been good about not giving up many bumbs and that something I always expect from a guy who throws lot of balls and lot of fastballs, they tend to be guys w command issues and that heater ends up over that plate in a hitter count, that doesn’t seem to be happening with him.
 
2daBank said:
Have you looked at rangers/snakes yet @peelpub94 Or anyone else that feels like sharing!!

Rangers lineup has actually been on one their little hot streaks they have had way fewer of this year. We got the cheese on k’s and outs with gallen last time out and he sure addressed one the issues I thought he been having, he threw 90% 1st strikes last game! But even with that he still walked 4! So it took him 100 pitches to complete 6. Not horrible in general but when you take into account how any decent tho has been able to throw 6 innings vs giants the last month I sure woulda liked to see him go deeper than 6. The k’s were certainly there, for whatever reason he needing to punch more out while going deeper into counts, he isn’t getting a lot the quick outs I used to think of him getting so he could pitch deeper into games.

Him and Eovaldi both priced at 17.5 outs but gallen carrying the steeper juice. Im almost more tempted to play gallen ov 5.5 k’s at +110 and look at Eovaldi going over the out total. Feel fairly confident if gallen goes 6 innings he will get 6+ k’s, and I think he could come short of 6 innings and still possibly have the k’s. Rangers havnt been striking out at a high clip lately but they have also faced a lot of bad pitching this past week! Gallen has a good history getting these guys to expand the zone so the key gonna be that 1st pitch strike and whether rangers take it or are swinging early? I’m gonna assume his 1st pitch strike rate will be good, not 90% again but back closer to what we expect from him in the mid 60s not the 50% bull shit he has had for large part the season!

Hey @peelpub94 , how bouts you give us numbers on rangers pitches seen per at bat! That be super!!!

When it comes to Eovaldi it takes a really special kind of pitcher for me to even consider going over the out total vs snakes right now but I think he that guy and think this a good spot to maybe cool them off for a day, especially with that splitter he throws a lot, that feels to me like a pitch he could get a red hot lineup to roll over on a bunch! He has a great history in zona, years ago so nothing to do with lineup he be facing just the fact he seems to like pitching in the dry air!

Think this could be a rare pitchers duel with couple offenses who come in pretty hot, snakes have the best ops the last 15 days but cooled a bit the last week facing some good pitching in Houston. Rangers come in super hot the last 7 days but again that 4 games vs angels crappy pitching and for most part not seeing best yanks had to offer mostly beating up their pen. I like both these starters to slow the offenses down tonight. So besides the props also looking at the Ff u4.5 which at -110 or so I think has lot of value.
Click to expand...
Over 8 seems reasonable in AZ. Like you said, TEX bats waking up a bit.

In AZ:
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1725988043620.png
 
peelpub94 said:
View attachment 88164
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So that def bodes well to a gallen out total but don’t love the price compared to the plus money on his k’s. The way he been pitching feel pretty confident if he goes 6 he will fan 6, we could get the old gallen at any time tho and he gets a bunch of quick outs. I know the goal isn’t to be at 100 pitches after 6 like he was last time out and his pitch counts been on the high side in general. I’m just bout glued to the Ff under in this game even tho it scary! Scary bets often the best! Really think Eovaldi will have snakes rolling over on his splitter tonight. I saw they opened snakes Ff tt at 1.5 -160 but someone else has gotten wise and that got slammed to 2.5 now, I wasn’t even thrilled to take the over 1.5 w that juice here, I mean -160 is 1
 
peelpub94 said:
View attachment 88164
Click to expand...

So that def bodes well to a gallen out total but don’t love the price compared to the plus money on his k’s. The way he been pitching feel pretty confident if he goes 6 he will fan 6, we could get the old gallen at any time tho and he gets a bunch of quick outs. I know the goal isn’t to be at 100 pitches after 6 like he was last time out and his pitch counts been on the high side in general. I’m just bout glued to the Ff under in this game even tho it scary! Scary bets often the best! Really think Eovaldi will have snakes rolling over on his splitter tonight. I saw they opened snakes Ff tt at 1.5 -160 but someone else has gotten wise and that got slammed to 2.5 now, I wasn’t even thrilled to take the over 1.5 w that juice here, I mean -160 is 15 cents higher than it was vs JV who we know not in top form yet!! Eovaldi is!
 
Gotta take into account who rangers been hitting against! When they saw Cole and rodon they were put to rest until they got into the pens, if we buying gallen is getting pretty close then I don’t think he allows more than a run or 2, 1st game home from road trip for snakes and facing a very good pitcher who splitter could def be a issue for them. I like both pitchers to go 6 innings and don’t think either allows more than 2.
 
Was I looking at wrong game or did someone hit the shit out that Ff under in zona? I coulda swore it was -115 to under now I seeing -150s. Jfc, it already a scary bet now they juicing the shit out of it?
 
Shit just erased all the stuff I wrote bout Ranger and why Phillies have been pulling him with such low pitch counts the last 4 starts! Fuck, I don’t wanna type that all again but the jist of it I assume Phillies want him fresh for postseason but isn’t there a fine line between that and not having him used to going 90+ like they will need in playoffs? Do they continue taking him out after 70-80 pitches even when he pitching well? Anyone know anything bout Phillies plans w him? I can’t see him having any problems holding this rays lineup down after Sanchez just blanked them for 6 innings.
 
Then there the saga of Taj, after the one blow up inning vs minny he mowed them down for 7 innings but twins are great about chasing shit out of the zone: did he fix his problem or was that the twins chasing a bunch? Plus money on Philly to score 3 thru 5 innings. Until seeing Cabrera and being blanked then that stinker yesterday Philly had seemed to be hitting. They have Taj at numbers he earned while he was pitching great but until last start seem redic. Think the best way to attack this might be Philly Ff -.5, I trust Ranger to hold this rays lineup down and even if Taj is good I expect he misses on one or 2 and Phillies take him yard.
 
Feel like we gonna see runs in Boston. My feeling with these Red Sox pitchers throwing so much spin and pitching backwards Is the more teams see it the less it working, the numbers bare that out wit kutter 2nd half numbers and this be the 3rd or 4th time Balty has seen him. We could def pay the juice for o’s Ff tt ov 1.5 but it cheaper to play full game over 9 and I don’t really expect Suarez to shut Red Sox down again.
 
Think there plenty of ammo here to make a winning card so I’m off over the river and thru the woods! There few more games I’d like to cap but time is flying on me and I gots shit to do!!
 
2daBank said:
Feel like we gonna see runs in Boston. My feeling with these Red Sox pitchers throwing so much spin and pitching backwards Is the more teams see it the less it working, the numbers bare that out wit kutter 2nd half numbers and this be the 3rd or 4th time Balty has seen him. We could def pay the juice for o’s Ff tt ov 1.5 but it cheaper to play full game over 9 and I don’t really expect Suarez to shut Red Sox down again.
Click to expand...
Weather is prime in the beantown..70s with a breeze 👌
 
Sorry I wasn’t really able to post my card, think I gave out lot of hints or where I was leaving but by time I got back home and took care of Theresa a ton the games had already started so wasn’t any point posting those. Taj getting busted upside head again, pretty sure I did post Phillies Ff -.5?

Really the only ones that havnt sent off are

Galken ov 5.5 k’s
Eovaldi ov 17.5 outs
Tex/zona Ff u4.5


They scratched bido which sucks but guess it better than sending him out there and burning our money cause something ain’t right! I was totally on the fence w arreghetti k’s but just couldn’t bring myself to lay the juice needing 7 k’s when A’s have actually been better than most teams against him. I do think he bounces back tho, small play on

Bregman ov 1.5 h,r,rbi


Lot of good west coast matchups I didn’t even cap so I might still try to find another play or 2
 
2daBank said:
Civale ov 15.5 outs +105
Click to expand...

Don’t see how they came up with this number? Giants have been allowing worse pitchers than him to go 6 innings vs them consistently. This park should play well for him to get plenty of quick outs. I just don’t see how we don’t play this at plus money? Only way it doesn’t cash is if he strikes out 10 and his pitch count gets away from him but that not really his game. I think he can complete 6 innings here but we just need 5.1 to cash
 
Let’s hope I’m right bout these pitchers slowing the offenses down here, gallen w k’s and Eovaldi pitching deep getting a lot of quick outs having them roll over on the splitter. I don’t think either pitcher giving up more than 2.
 
Not sure why gallen has been getting so far away from the zone looking for chases? I mean he getting them but his efficiency isn’t where he is at his best.
 
Man, gallen gets ahead of guys then he pussy foots around into 3-2 counts. Throw some damn strikes when you ahead in the count! Does he not trust his stuff? He throws any his good pitches in the zone when he ahead in count sure the k’s will come down but he will get a lot more quicker outs instead of jacking his pitch count up. Really curious why he has had this philosophy change? He got a 1st pitch strike on every hitter in 1st, had almost every one in 1-2 hole and all but one got the count to 3-2. That just not his game. He gotta trust his stuff more!! High pitch count 1st but he punched 2 so appears he still hunting k’s
 
Once again gallen k’s cash easy and his much count way up after 4 innings. I guess with the way they gonna have more electric arms coming out the pen they can live with gallen high k’s and no runs thru 5-6 innings. Last year they really needed him to go past the 6th, this year might not be the case. Fucjing joc and walker have all 4 runs, not sure why Eovaldi pitched to Walker after walking joc 2ns time around? Might as well have pitched around Walker and see if he chase, if not so what then get the other guys since these the only 2 doing damage.. dunno how this thing gonna sneak under 4.5?? Even if Eovaldi perfect for next 5 batters he then would see Joc with 2 outs in 5th. Maybe Texas be smart and won’t let him face joc and walker a 3rd time?
 
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