Tuesday Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Well fuck, chalk up another one my little know pitchers to being figured out. They hung a damn ov 5.5 -175 k prop on my guy Herz. Another kid i was playing 4.5s w 50 cents or so less juice few weeks ago! Not even gonna look closer unless the price gets bet down under -150, or maybe I’ll take a look and see if there any merit to playing him 7+ +130. I just noticed they have the ov 5.5 -175 but 6+ is -160! Still high but curious why it 15 cents cheaper for some number,!?!?
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
No k prop for wheeler yet, I was siooo curious where they put this. Think Wheeler generally a 6.5 or 7.5 guy in right matchup, I could seriously see them hang a 8.5 here, if it less and I don’t find a red flag I’ll play it. Braves are striking out 5-6-7x a game vs scrubs!
Short of playing k prop wheeler Ff -.5 or game ml both seemed priced right. Neither team been on fire but I still think Philly the much better team and the pitching matchup is obviously huge adv Philly.
Short of playing k prop wheeler Ff -.5 or game ml both seemed priced right. Neither team been on fire but I still think Philly the much better team and the pitching matchup is obviously huge adv Philly.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
it’s fucjing comical cards are favs. Already have mentioned my issues w fedde even tho I I do think cards got a good deal on trade he really doesn’t q
Me fit their mold other than being mediocre and cheap! Top it off milw already roasted him this year! This the series that will finally shut up the idiot fans and radio ppl around here who spend their days telling themselves redic stories bout how they van get into playoffs, after milw takes 2 of 3 or sweeps them surely they be so far back even these idiots have to stfu How is a team w a 11 game lead who been better all year dogs? Whatever i guess um a sucker cause I’ll take milw all day!
Me fit their mold other than being mediocre and cheap! Top it off milw already roasted him this year! This the series that will finally shut up the idiot fans and radio ppl around here who spend their days telling themselves redic stories bout how they van get into playoffs, after milw takes 2 of 3 or sweeps them surely they be so far back even these idiots have to stfu How is a team w a 11 game lead who been better all year dogs? Whatever i guess um a sucker cause I’ll take milw all day!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Getting decent + money against bad teams is what this time of year is all about. Sign me up for COL and PIT, and CIN when that line's available. No reason Keller should be +130. Maybe at least 1st 5 to avoid the PIT pen. KC/SF parlay is around +110, can't see any reason to avoid that one.
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Atlanta down Riley. Line seem low?
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Need to remember this. Good stuff peel
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I dunno wtf happened to Robbie Ray his last start but shit happens, I’m willing to look at it as just one those days but I’m wondering if books are? I ask cause his k’s being a not very juiced 6.5 vs Chisox today is puzzling to me! Just off top my head I absolutely expected 7.5 with some juice to over. So do they think he isn’t right? I don’t think Taj right and they keep lining him like he fine!! Ray hasn’t been fantastic since coming back as of yet but I don’t see anything that makes me think he lost something or isn’t right, other than that disaster vs Braves last start but sometimes shit just happens, if it was anything more than that would giants be pitching him today?
He hasn’t been dominant but he also has 30 k’s in just 21 innings and his swinging strike is pretty much elite like it always been. He hadn’t been in zone quite as much his norm but he only 21 innings back from the injury, last game non withstanding I’d expect he gets better the more he pitches assuming he fine. I know I’m willing to roll the dice cause if he anything close to even what he been most his starts since coming back he can punch out 7 white Sox in his sleep,
He hasn’t been dominant but he also has 30 k’s in just 21 innings and his swinging strike is pretty much elite like it always been. He hadn’t been in zone quite as much his norm but he only 21 innings back from the injury, last game non withstanding I’d expect he gets better the more he pitches assuming he fine. I know I’m willing to roll the dice cause if he anything close to even what he been most his starts since coming back he can punch out 7 white Sox in his sleep,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Ragans has punched out 7+ in 7 of last 10 but for some reason he has been terrible vs laa pretty much every time he has faced them! 20 innings and has allowed as many runs (13) as k’s vs them. I’d never have guessed a kid punching out way more than 1 per inning would struggle so much w this team, I know he really broke out this year but when he saw them in la they smacked him around for 7 runs and only struck out 3x in 6 innings. Maybe they have picked up on him possibly tipping pitches? Or maybe it just a flukey small sample? I dunno but think I feel more comfy playing Ray if I’m gonna take a lefty ov 6.5 k’s tonight!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hate Montas and still love Milw, crazy they dogs . Montas has pitched 2x vs cards this season and went 6 innings in both, 3 runs in one of them and only 1 in the other. No clue why cards favs?
That game fedde punched out 8 he only got 7 swinging strikes. Will he freeze guys again or will they figure him out? I don’t like this guy! He took 100 pitches to go 5 innings vs rays and that was by far his best start as a cardinal thus far! Not saying he won’t strike out 5 I just don’t trust this guy.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
I think he's flukey as fuck too, been shit his entire career and all of a sudden on the White Sox of all teams he finds his way? Just going with the math and numbers in front of me and putting all the other shit aside.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
His stuff isn't as dominant as his "good" seasons right now. Maybe it gets better as he pitches more? IDK.. feel like this is the kinda game he fans 6 and leaves in the 6th inning.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I think Ray just had one of those games against Atlanta where he had no command whatsoever. He plunked two batters and walked three. I am willing to call that an anomaly.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I feel same. Shit just happens sometimes. I don’t see any reason he doesn’t mow down 8-9-10 white Sox if he on.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I grabbed him when I was out this morning also. I was kinda surprised it wasn’t 7.5! I guess maybe we have the crappy angels pitchers to thank for that, thanks to them Braves k rate wasn’t so high this past week! Lol. How quickly they seem to forget, before that series Braves couldn’t find a starting pitcher that couldn’t punch them out at least 5-6x! Wheeler almost always pitches great when he faces these guys. Only fanned 5 the loan meeting this year but I think that was his 1st start the season and he came out after 6 innings with a pitch count below 90, that one certainly don’t concern me. I expect he goes 7 innings tonight and fans at least 1 per inning.
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
One thing scares me as I do like Pitt. I think 8 straight road losses
2daBank
Voice of Reason
He did that thing where he sent to Japan or Korea for a year, lot of guys have done that and actually learned to pitch, come back much better than before they left. I’m usually a fan of these guys cause they usually not guys w lights out stuff and after they learn to pitch you know who the die hard analytics ppl feel, they don’t believe in the art of pitching they think if you not striking out 1+ per inning you getting “lucky” so we often get great prices as those shits fade and fade and fade waiting for “regression”, then dude finally has a bad start and they can’t wait to say “see, regression”, kinda like how their bank accounts gotta regress! So foolish to believe anything as gospel but you can’t convince these mfers the world isn’t black and white!
That was my soap box for the day, back to issue at hand, lol
When it comes to fedde I actually tend to agree he pitching over his head/numbers will regress. It not cause his stuff so much it how he uses it, I don’t think the way he goes about it is typical for guys I like who manage to be good pitchers without A+ stuff, think he tricking lot of ppl but I think it will get figured out, he doesn’t pitch like the guys with lessor stuff I respect. That why when cards traded for him I said he was typical cards move in the fact he cheap but most the guys cards like have a much different approach I think more sustainable than what he doing.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
You reminded me of the KBO bit last time, or maybe KJ lol.. thanks for the reminder again..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You looks at o’s/mets? I know you guys liked o’s yesterday, you know I played over cause I couldn’t stomach backing Rogers, we both got screwed w the bottom 9th hr, anyways. I like o’s getting a little plus way way more tonight. I always been a Kremer fan, havnt been much lately cause I’m a bandwagon jumper and he hasn’t looked all that good! My loyalty is for sale! Lol. I know looking good vs nats isn’t the best sign a guy is back but I still believe in his talent, I like o’s seeing a lefty for a second night in a row even tho they completely different kind of pitchers I actually think they will have a much easier time with Quintana stuff. Looks like a night in NY that will help Kremer quite a bit, don’t think it matters much for Quintana style think he getting hit! O’s feel like pretty strong dog, dunno if I rather play Ff? How good is Mets pen?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
As long as Royce Lewis decides to grace us with his presence tonight I like twins quite a bit. He has played 1 day in a row tho so might have to make sure he playing! Feel like his bat from right side is important here, hopefully he can suck it up and play 2 straight days!
TheDodgers
Pretty much a regular
Line looks really low and actually played the Mets on my end. With that being said Mets will get lit up tonight. Hope not. Back to Phillies this series is huge. Sale not going this series and Riley out and Braves dogs at home I will bite and can be wrong.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
This is one game I haven't capped yet, but you'd have to be crazy to not back Baltimore a 2nd game in a row at + money, after last night. Quintana has given up 20 HRs this season (15 at Citi), going against the best HR hitting team in baseball. Will dig more in a bit.
Going to the Orioles Mets at Citi tomorrow afternoon. Eflin vs Maneaa. Can't wait, gorgeous weather ahead.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think Phillies roast them and re-establish dominance but I actually liked Philly over Braves at beginning the year, since then Braves have become a totally different team in a bad way. Neither is playing particularly well lately but I just can’t see them hitting wheeler with all the scrub pitchers who been mowing them down til the angels series they finally found a team w pitching so bad they didn’t strike out 10+ times a night! I don’t care who wins this one tho, long as wheeler punches out 7+ Braves can score 10 after that for all I care!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Nice, we got 2 more beautiful days before the disgusting heat and humidity come back, if cards wernt so awful maybe I’d go watch, lol,
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
O's are decent against the sinker, but dominant against the curve, 4 seam and sinker. He can't throw the sinker all game, so I think they get to him, maybe 4 ER. Peterson had a few Houdini innings last night, with some really nice plays in the field helping too. I'll play the odds and say it doesn't happen 2x in a row.
Lefty starting pitchers have gone over 2.5 ER only 2 out of the last 15 against Baltimore. That is crazy considering their offense.
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
I havnt decided what i think of this Baz kid? Not sure it all my fault cause he seems to have inconsistent results, you have a bad outing in stl then I’m really skeptical! He seems to have more than good enough stuff, not sure why before he got hurt he was punching out more than 10 per 9 but now thi year he under 8? His stuff doesn’t appear much different, they were all small samples pre injury and now this year. I’m just not sure, I’m wondering this cause that 16.5 out total in Oakland tonight is very enticing! Taj still looked like ass to me last night and he still managed to go 6 innings! They appear to be letting him throw more pitches his last couple times out, Oakland generally pretty good place for pitchers their bats have seemingly came back down to earth, I think he can go 5.2 innings at the very least tonight.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I just saw highlights end of Mets game last night, 1st off Dominguez you suck, you can’t throw a strike in the 1st 3 pitches but pitch 4 you manage to put the fastball in prob the only damn place that guy could hit it for damage? Really? At that point just throw another one over his damn head! I guess odds are he wasn’t aiming there or ball wouldn’t have ended up there! ! lol.
That said good for you Mets but I can’t imagine o’s enjoyed watching that! These guys should be in a bad mood tonight! I would be! This ain’t some loser team like cardinals, these kids should be dying to get back out there and give muts a little something back!
That said good for you Mets but I can’t imagine o’s enjoyed watching that! These guys should be in a bad mood tonight! I would be! This ain’t some loser team like cardinals, these kids should be dying to get back out there and give muts a little something back!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Buehler and that Gil kid from yanks should get together and brain storm. Gil is lights out when he gets 2 strikes he one the best in baseball putting guys away, unfortunately he doesn’t seem to be real good at getting those 1st 2 strikes! I saw earlier guys w 2 strikes have a ops over .800 vs Ferris! Thst makes no damn sense, I have no idea what the number is but I’d bet the league avg w 2 strikes is prob not even ,600 ops!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
even with Busch playing more pitcher friendly tonight that 7.5 total feels almost as crazy as milw being dogs! Like what the odds both these starters pitch 5-6 quality innings? It’s insane to me both Ff team totals are 1.5! There is no fucking way one these teams doesn’t have 2+ runs thru 5! It just ain’t happening! I think they both have at least 2. It’s not that freaking hard to score 2 runs! In fact it way damn harder for both these pitchers not to allow 2! You know how many runners will have to be stranded, double plays hit, overall craziness for these guys not to give up 2+??? It’s not cold out, yes the ball won’t be carrying like when it hot but the balls not gonna just die at warning track!
Of course now it will somehow be 0-0 in 5th. I feel like they have to know something I sure as hell don’t to even have the guts to set this here!
Of course now it will somehow be 0-0 in 5th. I feel like they have to know something I sure as hell don’t to even have the guts to set this here!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
From one of those analytics guys you love at Action Network. I'm not touching it and I didn't click the links to the two systems, just not interested in the game.
BSWI
Frankie Montas (MIL) vs. Erick Fedde (STL)A pair of trade deadline acquisitions—Frankie Montas and Erick Fedde—will also have favorable conditions for their matchup in St. Louis: 76 degrees at first pitch and nine mph winds blowing in from left-center field. Both NL Central rivals were off on Monday, allowing their high-leverage relievers to rest.
I set the total at 7.36 runs – compared to 8.1 on a typical day at Busch Stadium. This game also triggered a trio of profitable Action Labs systems for bettors, including Under Streak and a pair of wind-related under systems.
The Wind Blowing In system has had a 54.5% win rate and 5% ROI since 2005, and the Second Half Under system has had a 57.3% win rate and 10.2% ROI over the same span. Moreover, both systems have been profitable (1.8% and 2.7% ROI, respectively) in the five years since sports betting legalization.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-118 or 8, +100 or better)
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
And another guy at Action
We continue with this NL Central affair, and it's a play on the under in this duel.
Busch Stadium is one of the worst parks for homers this year, which benefits a fly-ball pitcher like Fedde.
Plus, another factor here is a PRO System centered around weather.
The system known as “Wind Blowing In” prompts betting under for MLB games if the wind blows inward and the over/under is set from six to 11, leading to a win 55% of the time.
At 7.5, bet the under at +105 or better. At 8.5, bet under -130 or cheaper
We continue with this NL Central affair, and it's a play on the under in this duel.
Busch Stadium is one of the worst parks for homers this year, which benefits a fly-ball pitcher like Fedde.
Plus, another factor here is a PRO System centered around weather.
The system known as “Wind Blowing In” prompts betting under for MLB games if the wind blows inward and the over/under is set from six to 11, leading to a win 55% of the time.
At 7.5, bet the under at +105 or better. At 8.5, bet under -130 or cheaper
Pick: Under 8
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Another of their guys likes Brewers all the way to -110. Guess collectively they're fairly comfortable backing Montas to keep StL in check. I don't mind the way you're doing it with the Brewers at +110 or whatever but I'd have to have around that to back ol' Frankie's weak sauce.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Oh I hate Montas but I don’t like Fedde either and Montas has actually pitched 2 QS vs cards already this year while Fedde got blown up vs milw, I suppose you could def argue law of averages w Montas, if it was a controlled environment I could buy it but seeing how it facing a team who’s 2 highest paid players barely holding .600 ops he could prob be a all star if he got to face cards enough!
Far as the under articles even tho less than 8 feels nuts w these starters I wouldn’t play over, there prob won’t be a run scored once the 2 asshole starters out the game, it just feels crazy to me to have it low enough they have both 1st 5 team totals at 1.5, that the part I think has no chance in hell of going under. They prob will hit their game unders, I think it pretty stupid they basing a system off wind especially if this game applies cause there isn’t enough wind to matter where I’m at! Busch will def play bigger tonight but it not cause some little breeze apparently blowing in, I’d bet money you won’t even be able to feel that wind they betting on in the park! Lol.
I def misrepresented tho if I implied anyone should bet the game over. I think it low but I also wouldn’t be shocked at all if it was 4-3 or less, just seems so crazy putting a total where they normally put them for good pitchers, not these 2 gas cans. Doubt either manager leave them in long enough to get all way there tho, they both be gone by 5th and it be something like 3-2 then it will prob end however it was when they get yanked.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Haven't watched him yet, if I can get shit done in the next 90 minutes (ie doing some swimming while it's 106 today) I'll try to watch some this afternoon. All I know is the same game logs you can see. Team is very satisfied at how he's progressing, think they'll reassess every couple starts but the first two haven't sucked. Going to be the same way with Kelly, slow and go and hopefully lean on the offense to carry a bad start or three til they get stretched out. Del Castillo has been awesome so far, was raking in the minors before the Montero injury. Going to have to find a spot for him when Gabi gets healthy, either 1B or DH type spot.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not sure where Montero, Walker or Marte are at but figure they should all be healthy for playoffs. At least Del Castillo seems plenty suitable to step in for Montero and/or Walker if needed for the lineup and Marte is on the 10 day IL. Ankle hopefully should be ready if he takes a couple weeks to let it heal appropriately.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It’s a bummer Adell hits so far down in lineup, he has 2 doubles and a bomb in 7 at bats vs ragans but I really don’t like playing hitter props on guys lower in order than 5th at worst! Not sure that a great strategy but don’t like the idea of possibly getting one less at bat! Plus against a stud pitcher I’d like to get a 1st inning at bat before he settles in!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not sure I've played one of ESPNbet's carnival bets before but taking a small gamble on any 2 of Judge, Soto, Harper to hit a HR juiced to +700 tonight. Figure wind blowing out to right in the Bronx should give both Yanks a chance, not like Judge can't go oppo then Harper facing Lopez off the injury has a shot. Even then Lopez will probably not pitch too deep because of it. Fun stab at a decent price.
