Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 2 Tue 2024

 
i'm loving twins offense when royce actually healthy but skubal at that price tough to pass, you know he cspsble of dd k's vs free swinging twins, have to see where they put number. prob 7.5 at least.
 
might as well just pencil in ff under in seattle anytime decent or better pitch there. in this case o's offense good but they most likely not roughing kirby up in that park, he usually saves stinkers for crap teams! lol. grayson should look good in seattle, they make worse pitchers look good!
 
almost did a double take when i woke up and saw skubal k's 6.5 +125 to over! i swear almost ran across river and bet it now but after little work im not so sure, his history in minny isn't great, i think of twins as a high strikeout team but turns out that might be more perception than reality, especially of late, in june they only had a very respectable whiff rate right around 20%, only 21% on year vs lhp. to make things worse i see potential rain in forecast but i believe that for earlier in day, as of now doesn't look like be a issue during game but think i might wanna hmake sure of that, nothing worse than pitcher outing getting cut short cause weather! ultimately imo twins offense is a whole different beast when royce lewis healthy which he seems to be at moment and the scary thing he hasn't even been hitting this past week! it is very hard not to grab this number on skubal, that in itself scary as they don't screw up a lot of k props these days! i'm almost considering playing twins ff tt ov 1.5 even tho betting against skubal is not something i do much, this offense tho 2 runs vs any pitcher thru 5 innings isn't out the question, they have a ops well over .800 the past month and top 5 in home runs, top it off skubal hasn't been great in this park and maybe that is the play?
 
so gonna be at cancer center for her immuno therapy today, think between seeing dr and then infusion it like a 4-5 hour deal although seemed faster last time. anyways i'll hopefully get lot accomplished there, i don't see and day games so that good. i just ate my last piece of weed gummy, that bad, feel like i might need more of that to cap! although i might be just baked enough here soon!! lol.

nobody has added anything yet, feel free to pop off plays or ideas for anything in next 2 hours, that seriously helps me focus on one game at time w big card! im still torn on twinks vs skubal, i really do think there some value in getting minny offense ov 1.5 ff for cheap, even tho skubal one my fav young pitchers, love those 1.5s all it takes a bloop and a blast to go over. skubal can still pitch well and they hit this, just not dominant which he hasn't really been against these guys in this park.
 
i dunno how excited i am to play mets again today with more juice but it another lefty/lefty matchup which i think favors them despite gore shutting them down yesterday, im not a huge manaea fan but nats struggles vs lhp could be just what he needs to go out and have strong outing, walks a big part his problem but nats don't take lot of walks or work counts all that much vs lefties. as we saw with peterson yesterday they put lot of pitcher pitches into play, i saw several times guys hitting into a out on what would have been ball 4 against peterson. this def a game manaea should be pretty decent.
 
damn mets are up at -157? i don't see myself on them at that price, maybe another way to bet them have to look more at nats pitcher. think i recall playing him or his k's vs fish but i play lot of lefties vs fish, that doesn't exactly mean he anything special!
 
damn mets are up at -157? i don't see myself on them at that price, maybe another way to bet them have to look more at nats pitcher. think i recall playing him or his k's vs fish but i play lot of lefties vs fish, that doesn't exactly mean he anything special!

looks like the fish game was his only good game! lol. i do recall his k's were low and he fanned a bunch of fish but again that a miami thing not much to do with the lefty pitching!
 
so gonna be at cancer center for her immuno therapy today, think between seeing dr and then infusion it like a 4-5 hour deal although seemed faster last time. anyways i'll hopefully get lot accomplished there, i don't see and day games so that good. i just ate my last piece of weed gummy, that bad, feel like i might need more of that to cap! although i might be just baked enough here soon!! lol.

nobody has added anything yet, feel free to pop off plays or ideas for anything in next 2 hours, that seriously helps me focus on one game at time w big card! im still torn on twinks vs skubal, i really do think there some value in getting minny offense ov 1.5 ff for cheap, even tho skubal one my fav young pitchers, love those 1.5s all it takes a bloop and a blast to go over. skubal can still pitch well and they hit this, just not dominant which he hasn't really been against these guys in this park.
Good luck at the cancer center today Bank.

Hope that infusion shit doesn't make you feel too bad...
 
i could see just playing the over 9 in washigton. whether i'm a believer or not mets are scoring runs, even after getting worked by gore they piled on after they got rid of him, i wouldn't expect this Herz kid to have that kind of success so earlier runs today. even w nats struggles vs lefties i can't imagine manaea being dominant, for him a good start is 5+ and less than 3 runs, he ain't gonna come out and mow them down for 6 innings, just don't see it happening. neither pen is that great and both got knocked around yesterday. i dunno, feels like pretty decent chance we see another higher scoring affair.
 
Good luck at the cancer center today Bank.

Hope that infusion shit doesn't make you feel too bad...

well it doesn't make me feel one way or other, the wife doesn't do real well that night or next day after but it seems to be having positive effects on her cancer so she getting thru. no way i could go thru all the stuff she is, im a little bitch when i have the flu, i prob woulda took myself out by now, lol. luckily she stronger than me!!

but thanks buddy. appreciate the sentiment all the same!
 
well it doesn't make me feel one way or other, the wife doesn't do real well that night or next day after but it seems to be having positive effects on her cancer so she getting thru. no way i could go thru all the stuff she is, im a little bitch when i have the flu, i prob woulda took myself out by now, lol. luckily she stronger than me!!

but thanks buddy. appreciate the sentiment all the same!

My bad.

I missed seeing "her", and I thought you were the one doing it. Hope she keeps getting better and beats that shit...
 
so this is almost embarrassing considering how much i think i know but i know absolutely nothing bout this kid starting for twins today, i was shocked to see he has made 13 freaking starts this year! lol. guess it fair to say while im still capping games as many days i can i been a bit preoccupied this year, lol. his surface stats are more than respectable, his advanced stuff says maybe he playing over his head/having some good fortune but since i have no book on him, no clue what he throws, his pitches effectiveness, pitch shape, i dunno which to believe? i never been one to buy totsllly in with the metrics or surface stats, that why i chart all these pitchers!! problem is he has somehow stayed off my radar!! it def looks like he hits quite a few barrels, not a good hard hit rate, the k:bb ratio nothing to write home bout. basically there no way i havd enough to set a stat line for him which makes it pretty damn hard to set line for game or any the props!!! lol. i will say with all that the line been creeping twins direction all morning, you rarely see that when a guy the analytics don't like pitching cause the blind followers of the advanced stuff tend to be the ones who often move lines (god love their uninspired capping souls! lol). anyways that line creeping up really screams to me i was on the right track with twins ff tt ov 1.5! unless the money is as much fading tigers offense as support this young pitcher?
 
i wonder if getting +135 on twins -.5 ff would make more sense but seeing how i don't trust or know this twins pitcher i hate going that route, i rather leave him out of it and isolate twins offense vs skubal and give a bit of respect to line to think i might be on right track with twins getting a couple off him, it just really hard for me to fade the young stud pitchers i like! lol.
 
kinda have same problem with stros/jays, i'm sure i can come up with a line i trust on berrios day but stros have another pitcher young pitcher going im not familiar with. this a strange feeling as most years id have all kinds of stuff wrote bout these rookie pitchers by this time in the season. so it either narrows down my pull of games to possibly play, little more guesswork, or have to find bets that only involve lineup vs the pitcher i know!!
 
i'm pretty much posting all random thoughts cause i don't have my notebook so using this thread as reference point for me to figure out my day, usually i write this shit down where i can keep to myself, no reason to force other ppl into my head, it ain't the most relaxing place! lol
 
despite nats issues w lefties i def think they can put a better number up against manaea than peterson. 3.5 seems very doable considering not only i expect they can get 2-3 off manaea they should get into mets pen sooner today. i def wouldn't play mets here but i am interested in mets red hot offense facing a lefty who far less developed than Gore yesterday. also think it a edge for both offenses seeing lefties b2b days. keep coming back to maybe a simple game over 9 is the way to go here?
 
damn, tigers have taken 20 at bats vs twins starter and have 1 hit to show for it. with a guy like him whose stuff doesn't jump off the page you gotta wonder if you can trust he continues to dominate their lineup or things balance out a bit? not a easy question. i think if twins able to get to skubal it most likely be early as like lot of stud pitchers he gets tougher as game goes. minny pitcher actually sports very good 1st inning numbers but like pitchers w lessor stuff he gets hit more when he seen a 2nd-3rd time.
 
hate to say this but im not real sure why pirates favs over cards? as much crap i give them unless one of pirates young studs is pitching i don't think they better than cards. i'd take keller stuff over gibson all day every day but gibson can pitch and pirates the kind of lineup you would expect him to navigate while more times than not putting up a quality start which the numbers pretty much bare out. just looking at current form cards offense been a lot better than pirates who ops hovering way down at bottom the league the last few weeks and 2md worst in baseball on the season against rhp! gibson ov 17.5 outs is def a option but so are cards getting plus money.
 
for the most part gibson has consistently went 6+ most the year. think 11 of 15 starts and the 4x he failed to go 6 were mostly good offenses, most certainly way better offenses than the one pirates sport night to night!
 
along same theme as the over in washington im kinda partial to lindor ov 2.5 h,r,rbi at plus money and lane thomas ov 1.5 h,r,rbi -145., i dont play a lot of 2.5 numbers outside like freaking ohtani when he scorching but lindor has feasted on lefties and this isn't good one, i expect mets to score and he def sets the table for the offense, at plus money i dont hate it, i could easily see him scoring 2 runs so obviously a hit or 2 be in order. far as nats side i guess abrams be the easier choice but if he gets on it puts thomas in good position to drive him in and cash with one swing the bat against a hittable lefty. he only has 2 hits in 8 at bats vs manaea but his exit velo been right around 95mph avg when he makes contact so that says more hits coming to me.
 
kinda surprised to see rays ff tt at 2.5, i feel pretty confident singer either hits his out total pitching 6 innings and/or holds rays to 2 runs or less. singer been pretty great at home and this year he been at his best on 5 days rest. dont always love playing rays unders away from the trop where they tend to score less but if singer on he should easily hold them to 2 or fewer thru 5.
 
only one game all year has singer given up multiple home runs in a start and that was against dodgers which hardly counts when talking bout pitching to the rays! try to avoid the ff tt with much juice but -140 i really don't think comes close to the true number on likelihood singer holds them under 3.
 
Gotta take a chance on Mercado today at even money with the Phillies. Line looks to good to be true but I like it enough to dive in.

so many games and so much crap going on im trying to get to them all but i passed over some w guys im less familiar with for time sake. i'll take a look at philly next tho. i did see they were dogs and sure thought they must be facing a better team than the scrubbies!! lol
 
no clue why cubs pitching a opener favs over philly? although i freaking hate capping openers, kinda wish rays guy who came up w these would get shot! shit tough enough without having to cap a game where it likely none the hitters will see same pitcher twice! it why i loved japan in last world baseball classic, usa imposing lineup didnt scare me when i knew they were gonna be facing another nasty jap pitcher every at bat! of course the huge difference here is cubs don't have 6-7 dudes like japs did to trot out inning after inning. hard to figure cubs have the pen to go thru philly lineup 3-4x without someone having a bad day!

not like cubs are exactly ripping cover off ball either.
 
man they have really started making it tough to attack seattle w pitcher k props. i'm a grayson rodriguez fan, just like ryan i was hoping for a 6.5 but unlike ryan not sure 7.5 as justified here? i mean im pretty sure he only has 2 games all year he has punched out 8+ and that what we need to cash?!?!! i get the feeling they want to keep us away from playing these guys vs seattle! lol. can hardly blame them seattle swings with their eyes closed!
 
man they have really started making it tough to attack seattle w pitcher k props. i'm a grayson rodriguez fan, just like ryan i was hoping for a 6.5 but unlike ryan not sure 7.5 as justified here? i mean im pretty sure he only has 2 games all year he has punched out 8+ and that what we need to cash?!?!! i get the feeling they want to keep us away from playing these guys vs seattle! lol. can hardly blame them seattle swings with their eyes closed!

the last 15 days seattle striking out 33% the time! few ticks up from their 31% on season! you sure wouldn't think they still be having stretches actually worse than the season long clip! like i said i seriously think at times they closing their eyes when they swing!! maybe getting the plus money is worth playing that number? he certainly capable of fanning double digits vs this squad, his swinging strike rate has ticked up little each year to where he at 13% now. im still mad they scared me off Ryan on sunday with this same 7.5 number! lol
 
i was looking at cease ov 6.5 vs rangers last night but they fan 10% less than seattle, think there def more risk of a shorter outing facing rangers than facing seattle in their pitcher friendly park!
 
grayson absolutely dominated seattle in balty (much friendlier hitter park i think) earlier in the year. 6 innings, only 1 hit but he reached "only" 7 k's with 3 walks. thing is he was only at 82 pitches when being pulled after the 6th, he could have easily pitched at least one more inning! that was actually his best game score on the year and now he gets to face them in their park where their team ops is a good 30 points lower!
 
this could be another game where the price so cheap on o's playing them makes more sense than messing with the grayson props? as much i like kirby balty isn't a great matchup for him, they got him for 5 runs in balty. kirby has been lights out all month, as one guy i know for sure will attest (yes you @Inspekdah ! lol) kirby good for a clunker after putting bunch of good starts together, he bout on cusp for as many games without a ugly one far as i can tell in his short career, not like he even has to be bad. seattle
scoring more than 3 off grayson and o's pen would surprise me (unless kimbrel is given ball, then nothing shock me!). holding o's to 3 or less no easy feat in any stadium, they seem to have bounced back pretty strong from their 1st losing streak of last 2 years!! seattle on other hand has dropped 3-4 straight series as stros closing the gap. at -110 it real easy for me to play o's and live with outcome, at this kind of price range im
quite confident can get a win with them this series, if not 2! odds are the pitching matchups will favor seattle more the next few games so o's might even be dogs! very tough for me to say there isn't some value on o's at this price.
 
not sure how much i wanna get involved w brewers/rox, i've always hated kuechal, never been able to cap him well but this mfer has some awful numbers the few times he pitched at coors, now he like 60! doubt he got better, lol. surely rox can score 3 off this bum??
 
i'll feel like a dummy if he shuts them down but i don't think as much as if i pass and they score 2 in 1st inning! think passing on a win would hurt more than taking a loss in this case.
 
can't find any issues with rays ff under. i just don't see singer giving up 3 to rays here. i do like just playing kc at this price also.
 
feel pretty strong bout the ov 17.5 outs with gibson. this the kind of team i expected he would do well against when cards signed him and honestly he been better overall than i would have thought, the one thing cards havnt lost their touch on is finding bargain basement vet pitchers who have really good years after signing here or coming at trade deadline. id much rather the front office could actually identify and develop young talent instead of getting pimped in any prospect trade but gotta give them props in this area. another game where i dunno if i like the prop better or cards getting little plus money? probably the gibson prop stronger, who knows if cards will score runs off keller? i really dont know, lol.
 
wouldn't you know it. i get to illinios and for some reason someone hit gibson outs down a tick!?!? lol. i don't understand that, honestly don't know i love paying -140 for over 16.5 than i did the -110 on 17.5? whatever tho. nothing i like more disagreeing with money! lol. gibson ov 16.5 outs it is!
 
Infusion center a good place to get some capping done ;).

Full week since Skubal started. That was the game I went to. Many have mentioned the 4 vs 5 days rest. We have 6 days here.

Don't know much about the Twins kid though.

Strikeout prop worth a look IMO
 
Infusion center a good place to get some capping done ;).

Full week since Skubal started. That was the game I went to. Many have mentioned the 4 vs 5 days rest. We have 6 days here.

Don't know much about the Twins kid though.

Strikeout prop worth a look IMO

yea i know nothing bout twinks kid. for me it twins ff tt ov1.5. don't think ive ever made a play like this against skubal but twins are raking, hit lefties, his history here isn't great. and 1.5 just doesn't take shit, my fav saying just a bloop and a blast and twins got all kinds of pop in that lineup. like lot the best pitchers you can sometimes get to skubal early and with the extra time off i'd think that even more so here. doubt it takes 5 innings to know, i'll prob know after 1st if this has shot, lol. my 1st reaction when i saw plus money on ov 6.5 k's i damn near ran out in middle the night to bet it, those usually ones i fuck up tho! lol. i thought twins were much more strikeout prone than they actually seem to be. i don't expect them to crush him or anything but i also don't think getting 2 runs asking a ton here.

i played stros ff tt ov 1.5 also. berrios hasn't really been in fantastic form lately and stros are humming, again a good offense and all i need a walk and a yordan blast to cash. couldn't resist!

the infusion center didn't really go as planned. the oncologist didn't want her going thru it while she dealing with this freaking tear in her bladder. they getting a room ready for her where the urology surgeon is located so we don't have to sit in er but appears we going right back to a different hospital tonight or 2marro. shit scary when they start talking bout quality of life instead of beating these things. i dunno, at moment im kinda numb to it and while i really appreciate everyone's thoughts and concerns i kinda just need this right now to give myself a little break from all the emotional shit!! lol. i did end up making bunch of plays, i've heard of emotional eating and shopping. i did emotional capping and gambling today!!
 
yea i know nothing bout twinks kid. for me it twins ff tt ov1.5. don't think ive ever made a play like this against skubal but twins are raking, hit lefties, his history here isn't great. and 1.5 just doesn't take shit, my fav saying just a bloop and a blast and twins got all kinds of pop in that lineup. like lot the best pitchers you can sometimes get to skubal early and with the extra time off i'd think that even more so here. doubt it takes 5 innings to know, i'll prob know after 1st if this has shot, lol. my 1st reaction when i saw plus money on ov 6.5 k's i damn near ran out in middle the night to bet it, those usually ones i fuck up tho! lol. i thought twins were much more strikeout prone than they actually seem to be. i don't expect them to crush him or anything but i also don't think getting 2 runs asking a ton here.

i played stros ff tt ov 1.5 also. berrios hasn't really been in fantastic form lately and stros are humming, again a good offense and all i need a walk and a yordan blast to cash. couldn't resist!

the infusion center didn't really go as planned. the oncologist didn't want her going thru it while she dealing with this freaking tear in her bladder. they getting a room ready for her where the urology surgeon is located so we don't have to sit in er but appears we going right back to a different hospital tonight or 2marro. shit scary when they start talking bout quality of life instead of beating these things. i dunno, at moment im kinda numb to it and while i really appreciate everyone's thoughts and concerns i kinda just need this right now to give myself a little break from all the emotional shit!! lol. i did end up making bunch of plays, i've heard of emotional eating and shopping. i did emotional capping and gambling today!!
Understood.

Oncology will always error in caution on treatment days. I remember going to the ER 4 times due to issues directly from there.

Anyways, back to baseball. Tough to fade my guy but understand the history. I have a feeling we'll be seeing his last 4-5 starts in Detroit. Season is going south and they need to use him to get a mega package back.

Tailing the F5 on the Stros.

I've done the emotional capping/betting before...can be pretty wild. Let's make it a good night!
 
like i said big card. i dont think i made the plays out of any emotional distress i just kept finding things i liked the odds.

team totals

twins ff ov 1.5
stros ff ov 1.5
rays ff un 2.5

totals

mets/nats ov 9
milw/rox ov 11.5

props

gibson ov 16.5 outs
grayson rodriguez ov 7.5 k's
lindor ov 2.5 h,r,rbi

games

o's ml
cards ml
kc ml
philly ml


think that it! lol
 
like i said big card. i dont think i made the plays out of any emotional distress i just kept finding things i liked the odds.

team totals

twins ff ov 1.5
stros ff ov 1.5
rays ff un 2.5

totals

mets/nats ov 9
milw/rox ov 11.5

props

gibson ov 16.5 outs
grayson rodriguez ov 7.5 k's
lindor ov 2.5 h,r,rbi

games

o's ml
cards ml
kc ml
philly ml


think that it! lol
Thanks for listing it out!
 

i dunno where the hell the flaherty ya'll have got this year been hiding?!? we got that guy for like the covid season and another half year, other than that he mostly was ass. i think i would trade that mfer so fast my head would spin! unless they think they figured out his problem? i assume he prob on a 1 year/short term deal anyways. with so many playoff spots id think it has become a huge sellers market as fewer and fewer teams think they out of it and more think bout adding. i can't imagine ya'll trade skubal but i dont know how many controllable years he has? it would be scherzer all over again if ya did, dude gonna win cy young's and be a ace for a championship team somewhere imo, i get ya'll still have lots of needs but id be signing skubal who really just hitting those years where the best pitchers (outside few early blossoming freaks like skenes) really come into their own and become a true ace.
 
i dunno where the hell the flaherty ya'll have got this year been hiding?!? we got that guy for like the covid season and another half year, other than that he mostly was ass. i think i would trade that mfer so fast my head would spin! unless they think they figured out his problem? i assume he prob on a 1 year/short term deal anyways. with so many playoff spots id think it has become a huge sellers market as fewer and fewer teams think they out of it and more think bout adding. i can't imagine ya'll trade skubal but i dont know how many controllable years he has? it would be scherzer all over again if ya did, dude gonna win cy young's and be a ace for a championship team somewhere imo, i get ya'll still have lots of needs but id be signing skubal who really just hitting those years where the best pitchers (outside few early blossoming freaks like skenes) really come into their own and become a true ace.
Flaherty is 1 year 14 million with incentives on top.

I love Tarik. I really do. But, this might be the most value he'll have. The history of injury has to be factored. Either way, have read some local writers opining about this.

We'd have to get back a star and then some offensively.
 
Flaherty is 1 year 14 million with incentives on top.

I love Tarik. I really do. But, this might be the most value he'll have. The history of injury has to be factored. Either way, have read some local writers opining about this.

We'd have to get back a star and then some offensively.

how many years/control ya'll have on skubal? he like only 25 ain't he? man i'd have to get a insane haul to give him up unless he close to free agency anyways cause he def gonna break somebody bank!
 
Back
Top