Tuesday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

May 16 Tue 2023

06:35 PM
909	Los Angeles AngelsC. Silseth -R		+115	O 9 -121
910	Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R+1 Markets		-125	U 9 +101

06:40 PM
901	Washington NationalsJ. Gray -R		+126	O 8 +105
902	Miami MarlinsJ. Luzardo -L+1 Markets		-136	U 8 -125

06:40 PM
917	Pittsburgh PiratesL. Ortiz -R		+108	O 9 +100
918	Detroit TigersM. Lorenzen -R+1 Markets		-118	U 9 -120

07:07 PM
911	New York YankeesD. German -R		+153	O 8½ -105
912	Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R+1 Markets		-166	U 8½ -115

07:10 PM
913	Seattle MarinersL. Castillo -R		-141	O 9 -120
914	Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+1 Markets		+130	U 9 +100

07:10 PM
919	Tampa Bay RaysJ. Beeks -L		+145	O 8 -130
920	New York MetsJ. Verlander -R+1 Markets		-157	U 8 +110

07:45 PM
903	Milwaukee BrewersW. Miley -L		+149	O 8 -120
904	St. Louis CardinalsJ. Montgomery -L+1 Markets		-162	U 8 +100

08:10 PM
923	Chicago CubsJ. Steele -L		+143	O 7½ -112
924	Houston AstrosC. Javier -R+1 Markets		-155	U 7½ -108

09:40 PM
925	Arizona DiamondbacksT. Henry -L		-131	O 9 -115
926	Oakland AthleticsK. Muller -L+1 Markets		+121	U 9 -105

09:40 PM
927	Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R		+188	O 9 -103
928	San Diego PadresS. Lugo -R+1 Markets		-205	U 9 -117

09:45 PM
907	Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R		-105	O 7½ -115
908	San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R+1 Markets		-105	U 7½ -105

10:10 PM
929	Minnesota TwinsB. Ober -R		+166	O 8 -105
930	Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L+1 Markets		-181	U 8 -115

 

[GWarner27]

wsh grayjosiah u4 (1H)
-great park for under, Luzardo big velocity for LHP but very fastball reliant. Gray can't keep the ball in the yard, but MIA is a great park for his HR tendencies since it's cavernous. WSH hit the road while MIA day off also weakens visitor
mil miley
-forever hard to trust a guy with little swing-and-miss especially against a team of power hitters, but StL terrible start suggests some value fading. Montgomery been great ever since the trade last season, should be in better shape vs poor MIL lineup. StL bullpen better than MIL probably keeps me away

phi wheeler
-not a dog

laa silseth
-don't want a lot of bullpen action vs one of the best

cle bieber
-short price for awesome arm vs struggling Lynn
cle bieber 1H under
-Lynn's good swing-and-miss numbers are intriguing, but probably need to see him throw well before getting in too early on a guy whose results have been bad

tb beeks
-tough to fade Verlander and at home, but TB better offense and pros at bullpen game. Verlander may be good enough that I don't want to take my chances when so many TB pitchers can blow up and ruin this if Verlander is Verlander

TEX DUNNING
-how much do we trust TEX lineup? Nowhere near barrel leaders, ATL 1st. Braves favored in TOR a bunch, makes sense to be favored here and when does Dunning deception get figured out?

chc steele
-big price to fade HOU lineup with pitcher off to great start that isn't completely false
chc steele u4 (1H)
-does HOU finally wake up? Javier not offering length probably means bad bullpen arm comes in if Javier can't go 5. Avoid CHC bullpen, do we trust them to hit? Steele should be pretty trustworthy vs HOU lineup based on 2023 production, though it's R dominant he can balance being a lefty with his k%

 

[2daBank]

Dunning ov 3.5 k’s -165

Feels like a slam dunk to me.

 

[GWarner27]

don't consider him a strikeout guy, but works vs ATL 3-true outcome strategy this year

 

[2daBank]

don't consider him a strikeout guy, but works vs ATL 3-true outcome strategy this year

He not a massive k guy but when he starts he gets over this number a crazy high percentage the time, 23 of 29 starts I believe he got at least 4 last year. Throw in what you brought up about Braves and I’d say long as they don’t blast him early he shouldn’t have much a problem getting here. Last year he saw Braves and fanned 7 over 7.2 innings.

 

[2daBank]

He been a 8+ k per 9 and right round 10% swinging strike guy every season,, he didn’t fare as well in the pen at beginning this year but I assume he get his numbers back on track now that he starting, some guys just not made for the pen. Only small concern I have is even tho he went 5 and 6 innings his 1st 2 starts he still hasn’t thrown more than 75ish pitches in a game this season.

 

[2daBank]

wsh grayjosiah u4 (1H)
-great park for under, Luzardo big velocity for LHP but very fastball reliant. Gray can't keep the ball in the yard, but MIA is a great park for his HR tendencies since it's cavernous. WSH hit the road while MIA day off also weakens visitor
mil miley
-forever hard to trust a guy with little swing-and-miss especially against a team of power hitters, but StL terrible start suggests some value fading. Montgomery been great ever since the trade last season, should be in better shape vs poor MIL lineup. StL bullpen better than MIL probably keeps me away

phi wheeler
-not a dog

laa silseth
-don't want a lot of bullpen action vs one of the best

cle bieber
-short price for awesome arm vs struggling Lynn
cle bieber 1H under
-Lynn's good swing-and-miss numbers are intriguing, but probably need to see him throw well before getting in too early on a guy whose results have been bad

tb beeks
-tough to fade Verlander and at home, but TB better offense and pros at bullpen game. Verlander may be good enough that I don't want to take my chances when so many TB pitchers can blow up and ruin this if Verlander is Verlander

TEX DUNNING
-how much do we trust TEX lineup? Nowhere near barrel leaders, ATL 1st. Braves favored in TOR a bunch, makes sense to be favored here and when does Dunning deception get figured out?

chc steele
-big price to fade HOU lineup with pitcher off to great start that isn't completely false
chc steele u4 (1H)
-does HOU finally wake up? Javier not offering length probably means bad bullpen arm comes in if Javier can't go 5. Avoid CHC bullpen, do we trust them to hit? Steele should be pretty trustworthy vs HOU lineup based on 2023 production, though it's R dominant he can balance being a lefty with his k%

I like steele a lot, I heard on radio he has bunch of friends family in houston to watch him tonight, think his dad from the area or something. I think he will be good.

Gray a pain in my ass, ever since I stopped betting him he has looked really good!

After all these years of cardinals smashing lhp they have kinda been the opposite this year, the heart their order still righty (unless the put Gorman between arenado and goldy but as you know they refuse to play him vs lhp) but they rely on lot more left handed hitters than in past. They can still stack lineup w righties but it not as good a lineup imo and their numbers reflecting that as the team ops is higher against rhp than left for 1st time I can remember! Think I like the Ff under in stl.

 

[2daBank]

dunning baby! That came down to the wire, I assume 6th was gonna be his last inning, punch out Albies to finish the inning for his 4th k!