Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 6 Tue 2021

12:10 PM
915Minnesota TwinsJ. Happ -L-144O 9
-127
916Detroit Tigers

C. Mize -R+1 Markets		+133U 9
+107
3:05 PM
901Atlanta BravesD. Smyly -L+116O 8
-110
902Washington Nationals

M. Scherzer -R		-126U 8
-110
3:07 PM
917Houston AstrosZ. Greinke -R-115O 8½
-120
918Los Angeles Angels

G. Canning -R+1 Markets		+105U 8½
+100
5:35 PM
919Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R+249O 8½
+105
920New York Yankees

G. Cole -R+1 Markets		-280U 8½
-125
5:40 PM
903St. Louis CardinalsJ. Gant -R-101O 8
-103
904Miami Marlins

S. Alcantara -R+1 Markets		-109U 8
-117
5:40 PM
905Pittsburgh PiratesT. Cahill -R+139O 9½
+105
906Cincinnati Reds

W. Miley -L+1 Markets		-150U 9½
-125
6:05 PM
907New York MetsM. Stroman -R-130O 9
+100
908Philadelphia Phillies

C. Anderson -R+1 Markets		+120U 9
-120
6:10 PM
921Tampa Bay RaysT. Glasnow -R-141O 9
+100
922Boston Red Sox

M. Perez -L+1 Markets		+130U 9
-120
6:40 PM
909Milwaukee BrewersF. Peralta -R-105
910Chicago Cubs

A. Alzolay -R+1 Markets		-105
7:05 PM
923Toronto Blue JaysT. Roark -R-120O 9½
-112
924Texas Rangers

D. Dunning -R+1 Markets		+110U 9½
-108
7:40 PM
911Arizona DiamondbacksL. Weaver -R+104O 11
-120
912Colorado Rockies

G. Marquez -R		-114U 11
+100
8:40 PM
927Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L-163O 8
-120
928Oakland Athletics

C. Bassitt -R+1 Markets		+150U 8
+100
9:10 PM
913San Francisco GiantsA. Sanchez -R+179O 8
-120
914San Diego Padres

Y. Darvish -R+1 Markets		-195U 8
+100
9:10 PM
925Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R-145O 7½
-120
926Seattle Mariners

J. Paxton -L+1 Markets		+134U 7½
+100
 
No idea why fish laying more on Monday than in this one? I think they have a bigger starting pitching edge here. Most likely be a Ff under for me, I think Gant will probably be able to navigate fish lineup and I sure don’t expect cards to get much of anything off alcontera!
 
Without looking at the pitching matchup jays look way too cheap again. I don’t like Roark very much so will have to look closer, but just lineups and pens gotta say they way off on this series.
 
I could see myself on Mariners, gotta see if I can find some stuff on how Paxton has looked/where his velo at? So far cws been playing some awful looking baseball and now anderson on the shelf, his replacement did look pretty good the other night tho. Just as a team they have sucked, can’t field, can’t hit with risp, the pen can’t get outs despite being loaded with power arms. Something don’t seem right bout them, we see how they look tonight.
 
Twins are 4-1 in their last five in game two of a series and 13-5 in their last 18 Tuesday games

Tigers are 24-65 in their last 89 in game two of a series and 24-59 in their last 93 versus the AL Centra
 
Big daddy naught said:
Roark is awful and dunning is decent
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yea but jays lineup way better and have the better pen. I don’t like Roark either but against this lineup I could certainly see him go 5 amd allow like 3., if he does that I’ll take jays at this price all day. Im getting ready to look at both starters now and see what I project thru 5 but if it close I think ya gotta roll jays who seem to me being undervalued at start of this year.
 
I see Roark velo that was never great has fallen off another mph after dropping a few ticks last year. That more concerning to me than fact he been knocked around all spring. Maybe over makes more sense? I still think jays lineup and pen advantage makes rangers unplayable at this low price.
 
That game could look like the 1st couple in kc, rangers get out to a lead off Roark then jays walk it down and pass them in short order. I don’t look at dunning as someone who gonna just lock down this jays lineup (man they gonna be tough when springer comes back!). Def don’t see him going more than 4-5 innings.
 
Ff u4 in Miami. Fish lineup just isn’t all that tough to navigate. Throw away the 3rd game against rays and we talking bout a team who has scored 5 runs in 3 games with 4 of those coming in 1! I was worried de leon would have walk issues but he didn’t so as expected he was able to get thru 5 with minimal damage. I don’t worry about gant’s control so I just can’t see him giving up more than a run or 2 tops thru 5.

ya’ll know how I feel bout Alcontera and he began the season looking in mid season form! My only worry with him is his efficiency but that was a pleasant surprise in the 1st start only taking 83 pitches to get thru 6 innings against the rays on opening day! Cardinals lineup isn’t all that scary either, I mean how many runs do they score last night if Rogers doesn’t walk 3 guys right out the gates? 2 maybe? Like fish They only had 5 hits on the night!! And while Rogers certainly has potential he not yet on alcontera level. Think sandy cruises thru 5 innings, maybe giving up 1 run.

2-1 after 5 seems bout right in this one.
 
So are the Nats actually gonna play today? I thought yesterday it took the Mets hitters a few at bats before settling into the game, think it be even worse for nats cause I’m assuming they haven’t been able to practice during this time? (I dunno who or how many players were impacted by Rona?). They get the same advantage of their ace facing Braves 4th starter but as we saw with phils yesterday their 4th starter was able to keep them in the game vs degrom against a rusty Mets lineup, really should have only given up 1 run if wasn’t for a botched play in center field costing him a out. We saw degrom be fantastic even tho he hadn’t pitched for 10+ days, unlike degrom who had dominated phils his whole career the Braves have had success vs mad Max. Max also has his lowest win percentage in March/April, his worst win percentage and ops against on 6+ days rest, and he only 10-9 in his career vs Braves.
 
I just realized the atl number got bet way down so scratch that, I would have considered them at +120 or more, now at less than +110 most places. That not enough for me to take smiley over scherzer!! Lol
 
I certainly understand Braves taking money on that open (I like them at that price also) but I don’t get why the market drove them down this far? Think anyone taking them once it got below +120 was making a mistake. Price is everything in this sport! What was a good play at +130 isn’t so much at +115 or less! I know a lot of my friends (so I’m assuming others) seem to have a hard time grasping this concept as they think it doesn’t matter long as they win. The obvious problem with that is “simply” picking the winner in a sport as random as baseball is a exercise in futility! I know the clip I’ve been hitting at to start this year is as much luck as anything else, my sides are dictated off price much more so than believing a team for sure gonna win the game! The “game hunter” thread that i believe at top the forum explains it far better than I can. I tell everyone who ask me about baseball betting they should read that!! Pretty much a Bible on how to be successful betting bases imo.
 
No clue wtf to do with the dbags/rox game? I had such high hopes for weaver but ever since he been in zona he been awful! Usually seems like he starts out looking pretty good but then 2nd time around he has a total meltdown. Prior to last year he had a few successful outings at coors but got blown up last season in his lone start. Believe rox blew him up once in zona also? Limited at bats but rox own a .905 collective ops in 62 plate appearances vs him.

not to be outdone in 116 at bats zona sporting a 1.072 ops vs Marquez! Escobar, peralta, and walker the 3 guys with 12+ Ab’s who have really rocked him! Both pitchers been rocked this spring (again I don’t put a ton of stock into this as there usually a bunch of circumstances we not aware of when it comes to guys preparing for the season). Marquez wasn’t bad in a few outings vs zona last year. He only allowed 1 run to open season vs lad but doyers stranded runners all over! in his 4 innings he allowed 6 hits and 6 walks, that usually a recipe to get clobbered in any park, doubly so at coors!!

this one those games that screams over but will prob have 30 runners stranded and somehow sneak under! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I certainly understand Braves taking money on that open (I like them at that price also) but I don’t get why the market drove them down this far? Think anyone taking them once it got below +120 was making a mistake. Price is everything in this sport! What was a good play at +130 isn’t so much at +115 or less! I know a lot of my friends (so I’m assuming others) seem to have a hard time grasping this concept as they think it doesn’t matter long as they win. The obvious problem with that is “simply” picking the winner in a sport as random as baseball is a exercise in futility! I know the clip I’ve been hitting at to start this year is as much luck as anything else, my sides are dictated off price much more so than believing a team for sure gonna win the game! The “game hunter” thread that i believe at top the forum explains it far better than I can. I tell everyone who ask me about baseball betting they should read that!! Pretty much a Bible on how to be successful betting bases imo.
Click to expand...
Imagine most of the line move has to do with everyone that’s out for the Nats
 
Ryno14 said:
Imagine most of the line move has to do with everyone that’s out for the Nats
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yea but didn’t the books know who was out when they posted the open? At least have a pretty good idea. Do you know which nats been or still being effected by Rona? To me it more about them not playing competitive games yet while everyone else has been. But like I said I don’t think there any value left in that line. I mean we got the same plus money getting 1.5 runs with phils last night in similar spot and with phils obviously playing better baseball than Braves at moment!
 
Anyone else get a chuckle at angels fans throwing trash cans on the field for the stros? Lol. Hate to say it but I think that stuff is motivating stros! They look like the class of the west once again, even with lot of questions in the rotation. The lineup still feels pretty stacked even without springer, altuve seems to be taking to the leadoff spot!
 
2daBank said:
yea but didn’t the books know who was out when they posted the open? At least have a pretty good idea. Do you know which nats been or still being effected by Rona? To me it more about them not playing competitive games yet while everyone else has been. But like I said I don’t think there any value left in that line. I mean we got the same plus money getting 1.5 runs with phils last night in similar spot and with phils obviously playing better baseball than Braves at moment!
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Just got announced this morning who all would be out because of Covid but I’m sure some of it is the not playing so far and people chasing Braves, etc. Agree it’s too far of a move to play ATL now
 
Ryno14 said:
Just got announced this morning who all would be out because of Covid but I’m sure some of it is the not playing so far and people chasing Braves, etc. Agree it’s too far of a move to play ATL now
Click to expand...

is schwarber on that list or is he out cause facing a lefty? Cant imagine he gonna be in a platoon?? Nats lineup today looks pretty similar to last season, are all their fa adds the guys with Rona?
 
2daBank said:
is schwarber on that list or is he out cause facing a lefty? Cant imagine he gonna be in a platoon?? Nats lineup today looks pretty similar to last season, are all their fa adds the guys with Rona?
Click to expand...
Schwarber, Bell, Corbin were on there for sure. Couple relievers too, I believe
 
Oh wow, i just realized stros lost last night!! Lol. I thought they had game locked up when I went to sleep. Halo’s got 7 runs with only 1 extra base hit! Trout is a bad mofo! I’m assuming ohtani be back in starting lineup today? Halo’s off to heck of a start.
 
How old is Walsh? He looks to be the real deal. Trout was mic’ed up on Sunday night and he said you can’t miss with a fastball to that guy, he not gonna miss it!
 
So tribe off today? Have the home opener move in case it got rained out? Takes away a Ff under which as jimbo’s thread states has basically become a auto bet! Tribe starting pitching is still solid and the offense can’t be better after losing lindor and Santana!
 
so the insane prices on Cole are gearing up! It’s like books have no interest in taking yanks money! Or they know they still get yanks money even at damn near 3 to 1!! I get it, they probably will win but I think O’s have the ability to be far more competitive than most 90-100 loss teams typically are!! Red Sox bats def made the pitching appear better than it is. I don’t really have any desire to play Balty here but how can you lay this on yanks? Maybe get creative with laying runs or the yanks team total over? That only way I can see getting involved with them. I pretty much just ignore the games when I see a line like that, if I can’t make a case for the dog that is.
 
Gotta like the way phils have started this season, I know they seem to be mostly the same lineup but I really like the makeup of them this year. They seem to be on a mission to make a statement to the favs of the division! Had yesterday’s game been played a month from now degrom prob pitches a complete game shutout! That said they did take some good cuts and hit quite a few balls on the screws, they just happened to be hit right at ppl. Moore and the pen battled tho to keep them in striking distance and soon as degrom was out the game the lineup went to work! Prob not real often a reliever comes in throwing mid/upper 90s like May was and it seems way more hittable than the 100 the starter was dealing! Lol.

I kinda like phils as dogs again tonight. I can’t see stroman going as deep as degrom did. Chase anderson along with Moore were pretty good pickups to fill in the back the rotation imo. Conforto has crushed him but overall anderson has always had reverse splits going on with better numbers against lefties (not last season but I’m throwing out 2020 for most part, even tho his surface numbers were bad he did have some interesting changes to his pitch mix I think will pay off this year!). I think he will battle and keep the phils in this one as everything in baseball is contagious imo, and right now phils are feeling it. They never hung their heads last night, just kept battling like a team that knew it would come eventually.
 
Pirates to start off with a long losing streak? 1-3 right now. lost 3 in a row. Does Cincy keep it going. I kinda lean like this could be a sweep. Reds have many times had the Pirates number in recent years.
The pitching matchup doesn't leave much to be desired, but I'd take the Red s lineup over the Pirates right now without Ke'bryan Hayes.
 
lfhlaw said:
Pirates to start off with a long losing streak? 1-3 right now. lost 3 in a row. Does Cincy keep it going. I kinda lean like this could be a sweep. Reds have many times had the Pirates number in recent years.
The pitching matchup doesn't leave much to be desired, but I'd take the Red s lineup over the Pirates right now without Ke'bryan Hayes.
Click to expand...

man. I had pirates Ff money line last night, had the 2-1 lead with 2 outs in 5th and moose goes yard to tie it up and squash my +155 payout! Fuckers. It was just a bet on Brubaker as I think he gonna turn out to be a pretty solid starter. Unfortunately he got pulled after 4 innings thanks to his control problems.

I was just getting ready to post the over 9. Neither Cahill or Miley has pitched much of any innings at all in spring. Both former sinker ballers who have all but abandoned that pitch as times have changed and most hitter swing plane can bash average sinkers! Cahill turned into a total junk baller last year, throwing tons of curves and other off speed, helped his k-rate but as you would expect his walk rate also way up, you would think it take him some time/innings to get the feel for that stuff, I could see some walks then he hangs a few and they get banged out the park for a couple crooked number innings! Im assuming Castellonos appeal will still be going so he be able to play tonight? That be only reason I wouldn’t play the over, he on fire to start the year!

Miley has went to the cutter in replacement of the sinker. Another pitch I would think take some innings to have total command of how he wants to shape it. I don’t think nearly as drastic as Cahill needing the time for all his off speed tho. I agree with reds but they a little too pricey for me. How bout team total over? In playing game ovsr im certainly counting on them to get me at least 6!!
 
Tried getting cute today and played Mize O4.5Ks at EV money... strikes out the side in the first and then gets pulled after 4 and 80 pitches. Finished with 4K
 
Rays/sox Ff u5 (again). Thought bout rays Ff rl but still gotta pay -125 for that. I like it cause I expect glastnow to continue his dominance from opening day but I don’t like it cause laying the half run with rays offense is counting on them to score 2 runs at least in 5 innings! Not sure how confident I am in them doing that?
 
Ryno14 said:
Tried getting cute today and played Mize O4.5Ks at EV money... strikes out the side in the first and then gets pulled after 4 and 80 pitches. Finished with 4K
Click to expand...

oh man, that stings. I have the game on but im not paying much attention while im capping the card, I def would have guessed he was over 4.
 
Anyone remember how rays hit lefties last year? I wanna say they have some guys who rake lhp, I know they platoon a bunch. That concerns me a bit for the Ff under. Maybe rays Ff -.5 is better?
 
2daBank said:
Anyone remember how rays hit lefties last year? I wanna say they have some guys who rake lhp, I know they platoon a bunch. That concerns me a bit for the Ff under. Maybe rays Ff -.5 is better?
Click to expand...

Yep. .794 collective ops vs lefties last year. Man, I might have to lay the half run on rays Ff. Not sure I trust Perez vs a team who hits lefties! I just hate taking favs where I still have to eat little juice while laying the half run!! Especially when I don’t particularly trust the offense!
 
28 bombs in 506 collective at bats last year vs lhp. Good for a .455 slug. Another thing to worry bout for Perez is while it didn’t hurt his hr rate last year his change in pitch mix has resulted in far less ground balls, can’t be a good idea to turn into a lefty fly ball pitcher at Fenway! That could to become a problem isn’t it?
 
2daBank said:
man. I had pirates Ff money line last night, had the 2-1 lead with 2 outs in 5th and moose goes yard to tie it up and squash my +155 payout! Fuckers. It was just a bet on Brubaker as I think he gonna turn out to be a pretty solid starter. Unfortunately he got pulled after 4 innings thanks to his control problems.

I was just getting ready to post the over 9. Neither Cahill or Miley has pitched much of any innings at all in spring. Both former sinker ballers who have all but abandoned that pitch as times have changed and most hitter swing plane can bash average sinkers! Cahill turned into a total junk baller last year, throwing tons of curves and other off speed, helped his k-rate but as you would expect his walk rate also way up, you would think it take him some time/innings to get the feel for that stuff, I could see some walks then he hangs a few and they get banged out the park for a couple crooked number innings! Im assuming Castellonos appeal will still be going so he be able to play tonight? That be only reason I wouldn’t play the over, he on fire to start the year!

Miley has went to the cutter in replacement of the sinker. Another pitch I would think take some innings to have total command of how he wants to shape it. I don’t think nearly as drastic as Cahill needing the time for all his off speed tho. I agree with reds but they a little too pricey for me. How bout team total over? In playing game ovsr im certainly counting on them to get me at least 6!!
Click to expand...

Problem is the Pirates offense at times has really been lacking ...if you can keep the Bucs in the yard...they will score 1-2 runs...you'd be hoping the Reds tag the Bucs for a ton of runs or the Reds Bullpen to suck as well. The other thing that might help your over seems to be the Bucs defensive fielding. There have been some head scratching errors at times with the Bucs Defense. I tend to wait to see the Starting Lineups now. Evans, Moran and Reynolds are the "hot" batters for the Bucs if there is such a thing for the Bucs lol.
 
lfhlaw said:
Problem is the Pirates offense at times has really been lacking ...if you can keep the Bucs in the yard...they will score 1-2 runs...you'd be hoping the Reds tag the Bucs for a ton of runs or the Reds Bullpen to suck as well. The other thing that might help your over seems to be the Bucs defensive fielding. There have been some head scratching errors at times with the Bucs Defense. I tend to wait to see the Starting Lineups now. Evans, Moran and Reynolds are the "hot" batters for the Bucs if there is such a thing for the Bucs lol.
Click to expand...

that was why I mentioned possibly playing the reds team total over instead? I’m basically counting on them to get me at least 6 to cash the game over 9 (maybe 7!). I havnt looked but assuming the team total can’t be more than 5.5? Reds throwing a lefty might limit Moran ability to get a tater also. Good news is there not many better parks to get jacks, decently warm weather and small helping wind.
 
Glastnow did get roughed up in his one Fenway start last year but I don’t foresee that happening this year. Long as he stays healthy I think he will be challenging for the al cy young this year. Another great move by the pirates shipping him out of town after trying to ruin him by making him something he wasn’t instead of embracing all the talent!! Lol. Poor pirates fans!
 
2daBank said:
Glastnow did get roughed up in his one Fenway start last year but I don’t foresee that happening this year. Long as he stays healthy I think he will be challenging for the al cy young this year. Another great move by the pirates shipping him out of town after trying to ruin him by making him something he wasn’t instead of embracing all the talent!! Lol. Poor pirates fans!
Click to expand...
I think the biggest thing is his walks...as long as he can minimize those. Not a problem.
 
lfhlaw said:
I think the biggest thing is his walks...as long as he can minimize those. Not a problem.
Click to expand...

no doubt, which he didn’t walk any on opening day where you would think might be a bit more adrenaline flowing that could lead to control problems. He did have 7 walks this spring in 14+ innings but who knows if he was working on something? Not to mention in those 14.2 innings he struck out freaking 27!! So of his 44 outs 27 came via punch out. He got 6 in 6 innings against fish, as mentioned with no walks, he was super efficient in that game only taking 77 pitches to get thru 6 innings! Of course the fish lineup is really lacking, they gonna struggle to score vs cards 4th and 5th starters (yesterday and tonight).
 
Speaking of high strikeout rates this spring the Brewers peralta fanned 23 in 13.2 innings, again I do not put much weight into spring performances despite bringing them up a lot! Lol. What is interesting is that his velo was way up in his 1st outing this year, up 2+ ticks from last season. I just don’t know if that was a product of coming out the pen his 1st outing? Def a good sign for brewers if it legit. He did walk 3 in 2 innings but he fanned all 6 twins batters he got out! Took him 50+ pitches to get thru the 2 innings! He can’t do that if he gonna be a effective starter! God forbid he pitches to some contact, we know how fangraphs considers outs in that fashion lucky! Lol. He been absolutely his best on 4 days rest which he will be tonight. He has had some good and bad at wrigley.

this guy pitching for Cubs is 26 so he kinda on the boarder line of me considering him being a prospect. I know some guys are late bloomers, simply figure something out, or one of any other reasons but im always skeptical if it takes them this long to make a rotation. Looks like he started 4 games for the scrubbies last year (im assuming sept call up?) he stuck out over 12 batters per 9 innings but also walked almost 6 per 9! So glad we have turned game into this! (Lol). I dunno how good he is? Throw mid 90s heater/sinker combo, his secondary stuff has better pitch values on fangraphs . He def doesn’t appear to throw enough strikes so if brewers take pitches they should have a chance to have guys all over the bases! He never went past 3 innings in spring. Gotta think 4-5 innings be his max.
After game 1 milw offense has started to resemble the crap we saw last year. They really need to show something in this one vs a kid who should give them opportunities!

think I like the small plus money here. Although mark wegner has never been a very friendly ump for dogs!!
 
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