Tuesday bases from Uni

[Unicorn]

Official CtG MLB record: 9-7, +18.28 Units

Wazzup guys! Took a day off on Monday after quite a profitable Sunday evening. So many interesting matchups tonight, so here are my picks with write-ups being added soon..


Twins-Indians Over 8 (-111) - 7 Units
Blue Jays (-120) - 7 Units
Brewers (+146) - 3.5 Units
Giants (+144) - 3.5 Units
Phillies -1.5 (-102) - 5 Units


2-team parlay: Yankees (-155) & Rangers-Mariners Over 10 (+101) - 3.5 Units

 

[Santacapper]

GL Unicorn

 

[Unicorn]

Considering Rangers-Mariners game is just about to start, here are my reasons why I took the Over today:

Mariners are hitting well lately, averaging over 4 runs per game over their last 5 games. On the road vs RHP, they've been averaging 5.2 RPG. They got Washy going today, who's lifetime day-time ERA is 4.43 which is exactly .5 runs more than his night lifetime ERA. Not much of a difference but when I count in that his lifetime April ERA has been 4.45 - which is his 2nd worst month ERA, it sounds a bit stronger His career stats vs Rangers are 7-7, 4.13 ERA but only 2-4, 6.28 ERA when he was pitching on Ameriquest in Texas. Rangers on the other side have been averaging a little over 4 RPG lately, too - but I'm counting on the fact that they are hitting with over .350 BA with 8 runs scored per game at home vs LHP. Their today's SP is Vincente Padilla who hasn't impressed me so far. He's 1-4, 5.79 ERA vs Mariners in his career, which is nice to know for my possible Over bet to hit Rangers bullpen hasn't been so good lately, averaging 5.91 ERA and allowing .362 OBP to opponents over the last 10 days. I'll take my chances with the Over here.

 

[Unicorn]

Bah, the game's been postponed :/

 

[Unicorn]

Twins-Indians Over 8 (-111) - 7 Units

Although this may be Carmona's last start 'cause of the probable return of Cliff Lee to the starting rotation, I can't ignore his disasterous career stats in road (6.31 ERA) and night starts (6.19 ERA). Both of those ERA's are for 1.5 run larger compared to his ERA's in opposite situation(s). Add to that the fact that Twins are hitting more than well lately and got Santana on the mound (which means they will give him decent run support) who hasn't been particulary sharp in the month of April during his career (only 4.18 ERA lifetime) and the fact that the Twins are coming off a tough loss from last night. Also, although it's marginal, it may be worth to note that tonight's home umpire has a 3-0 OU record so far with 12.33 runs per game averaged. Enough for me to take the low-set line which imho better suits some really good pitching matchup like Escobar-Bonderman.

 

[Unicorn]

Blue Jays (-120) - 7 Units

Although almost everything points to possible Red Sox win here, it's just hard for me to believe that Jays won't give their best effort tonight with their ace on the mound. The fact that they "betrayed" him once already this season vs those same Red Sox with the same Julian Tavarez pitching, on THEIR place - I think it's time for them to return the favor and win this 2nd game too. Because the bullpen actually lost the game last time around for "Doc", he's the type of guy who may go all the way to the end by himself, which we've already seen this season once - when he went 10 freaking innings just to make sure that the pen doesn't blow the game. I don't think that he'll go 10 innings here but 8.2 may be enough

 

[Satyr]

GL buddy, I'm on the other side of your Brewers bet, but I like those Phillies and will add them to my card.

:cheers: :shake:

 

[Unicorn]

Brewers (+146) - 3.5 Units

It looks like the books have finnaly figured out that Richie Rich should (will) be money this season, but I also think that with the line set like this - they're counting on the public to be on the Cubs aswell. I may not be the type of guy who's going against the public because I think it's cool or always money-making, but I think this may be the right spot for Brew-Crew to steal one from Richie. Remember, they're the only team who managed to score against him this season and they've been swinging their bats exceptionaly well lately, especially vs LHP on road (.323 BA / .376 OBP / 7.0 RPG and only 2 K's). Suppan may not be the best pitcher to oppose Hill but I'm counting on him to do his usual job (6 IP and a few runs) vs frustrated Cubs lineup. The Brewers pen is the one which concerns me the most here but the fact that they've been better when pitching on road (3.27 ERA) gives me a little hope. Going with small stakes on this one.

 

[Unicorn]

Giants (+144) - 3.5 Units

The Dodgers have been hot lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games, but the Giants have been even better, going 8-2 and currently riding a 5-game winning streak. They got Matt Morris going for them tonight, and he's been their best pitcher so far (2-0, 2.00 ERA). Nothing suprising here, considering his career record in the month of April (18-10, 3.27 ERA) which has been his second best month so far. He will be opossed by Derek Lowe, who carries a 19-12, 3.46 ERA career record at Dodger's Stadium. Earlier this month, the Dodgers swept the Giants at home in a 3-game series, so this may be a good spot for SF to get some revenge, especially because they've been so hot lately. So I'm taking this solid doggie for a small stake, and we'll see how it goes.

 

[Capt. Slap]

Like Toronto at first glance, but in his career Julian Tavarez ALWAYS pitches well against Toronto

That being said, I would never bet against the Red Sox when they're + money at home as well

 

[Unicorn]

Phillies -1.5 (-102) - 5 Units

It looks like the things have finnaly came together for the Phillies. They got the healthy lineup who's been hitting very good lately. They're riding a 3-game winning streak and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Jamie Moyer will start for them tonight, and he's started this season more than well, posting a 2-1, 3.05 ERA so far. The Nats will be a familiar opponent for Moyer, considering he kept them in check a week ago, going 8 innings while surrendering only 2 runs on 4 hits. I'm looking for them to continue their recent surge vs injured and slumping Nats lineup. Only medium stakes considering I took the run line here for a decent price.

 

[Unicorn]

Yankees - everyone and their mother are on Devil Rays tonight. Imho the perfect spot for Tampa to win was last night, and, lucky for them - they won. Kazmir has been their ace, but he hasn't actually been the Yankee-killer, going only 1-3, 4.18 ERA vs them in his career, with his team posting a 1-4 record in those 5 starts. Far better has been Fossum who went 4-4 prior to last night's win vs Yankees. Anyway, a few reasons why I took "only" the ML on Yankees, not the run line: Wang's 1st start although I expect from him to go 6 innings with a few runs allowed (he's lifetime 3-1, 3.90 ERA when pitching in Tampa); although he had a great last season, his hasn't been particulary sharp in April throughout his career (only 4.38 ERA which isn't bad but isn't great either) and ofc. Kazmir's nice home ERA which stands at 3.12 (career). But the Yankees hot bats are the biggest reason why I'm going tonight with them, and actually I don't think that their pen could blow another game for the 3rd time in a row.

 

[Unicorn]

Quite a profitable night (+17.36 Units).

Cya later, guys... :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

hell of a day dude

 

[zigiss]

excellent!