Trash TD
Well-Known Member
Just a few thoughts for the RBC this weekend.
According to DataGolf's Course Fit Tool, Harbour Town puts a premium on players' around-the-green skills when compared to an average PGA Tour course. This makes sense as the greens are the second smallest on tour. Driving accuracy is slightly more important relative to the average PGA Tour course and approach is surprisingly about the same as the average 18 on Tour despite the diminutive greens. Driving distance and putting are not as important. DataGolf also tells me that the approach shot distribution favors those that are strong from 175-200 yards (27% of approaches) and 150-175 yards (20% of approaches).
While I think Cam Smith, JT, and Morikawa are built nicely for this course, I don't think they get up for this event one week after Augusta. Cam Smith's best finish is a T9, JT has played once in the past 5 years finishing with a T8, and Morikawa brings in a T7 from last year.
My ticket includes the following outright plays:
According to DataGolf's Course Fit Tool, Harbour Town puts a premium on players' around-the-green skills when compared to an average PGA Tour course. This makes sense as the greens are the second smallest on tour. Driving accuracy is slightly more important relative to the average PGA Tour course and approach is surprisingly about the same as the average 18 on Tour despite the diminutive greens. Driving distance and putting are not as important. DataGolf also tells me that the approach shot distribution favors those that are strong from 175-200 yards (27% of approaches) and 150-175 yards (20% of approaches).
While I think Cam Smith, JT, and Morikawa are built nicely for this course, I don't think they get up for this event one week after Augusta. Cam Smith's best finish is a T9, JT has played once in the past 5 years finishing with a T8, and Morikawa brings in a T7 from last year.
My ticket includes the following outright plays:
- DJ at 18 to 1: One could add DJ to the list of the three aforementioned golfers, but I think DJ is close to dominating a mid-tier tourney like he's done in the past - the 2020 Travelers comes to mind. Why not in his home state on a course built by an architect that he likes? DJ ranks 8th in this week's field in ball striking (off-the-tee + approach) true strokes gained (TSG).
- Hoge at 80 to 1: Hoge has the closest proximity on approaches from 175-200 on Tour, price seemed good for a quality ball striker.
- Webb at 30 to 1: Webb ranks first on Tour in GIR on approaches from 175-200. Webb has a sterling track record at Harbour Town with a win in 2020 plus other high finishes. Also a Dye guy, remember what he did at Sawgrass several years back? Finally coming into good health too.
- NeSmith at 175 to 1: Read that this is his favorite course, quality outing at Valspar with a T3. There are worse flyers I suppose.
- Conners at 25 to 1: Number 1 in the field in terms of TSG ball striking over last 20 rounds. Great results recently in top-tier fields. Hoping he isn't tired as this will be his fourth week in a row playing.
- Kisner at 45 to 1: Coming off top showings at two Dye tracks - Sawgrass and Austin. Around-the-green he ranks 9th in the field. Decent course history with a T11 in 2017 and a T7 in 2018.
- Maverick McNealy at 55 to 1: T4 last year at Harbour Town, seems to be playing well this year.
- Lowry at 22 to 1: Comes in ranking 1st in total TSG in the field over last 20 rounds. T9 in 2021, T3 in 2019.
- Fitzpatrick at 22 to 1: Fitzpatrick is a huge fan of Harbour Town and the results show with a T4 last year and a pair of T14s in 2020 and 2018. Quality ballstriker and wizard around-the-green ranking 5th in the field over past 20 rounds.
- Kuchar at 55 to 1: Ranks 2nd in around-the-green over last 20 rounds vs the field. Coming off a T2 at Valero. Played 68 competitive rounds at Harbour Town (most in the field) and owns the 7th best career TSG of those playing this week.
- HV III at 55 to 1: Playing career golf at the moment, T2 last year at Harbour Town. T6 at Dye's Sawgrass earlier this year.
- Niemann at 30 to 1: Though just 4 rounds, he has the highest true SG at Harbour Town of those in the field - resulted in a T5 in 2020. Ranks top 15 vs field in around-the-green, approach, off-the-tee, and ball striking.
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