time to post my week one card so far - 2015
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Also like the under in the Texas game. Sans a short field or two with Zaire gifts, we're not going to out of the mid teens most likely.
Strong? I'm in his corner. Love the guy and want him to succeed. If he tanks and things go south this season, there will be a silver lining in that our piece-of-shit AD will likely be gone. Patterson's already done enough to be given his walking papers. A .500 season or worse by Strong will be the nail in the coffin.
Strong? I'm in his corner. Love the guy and want him to succeed. If he tanks and things go south this season, there will be a silver lining in that our piece-of-shit AD will likely be gone. Patterson's already done enough to be given his walking papers. A .500 season or worse by Strong will be the nail in the coffin.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Jealous. I would love to meet him. I have watched a bunch of his speeches on youtube, including some to groups completely unrelated to sports. He really is an amazing speaker, lisp and all. He somehow manages to be witty, loving, and funny while having expectations of his players/teams/friends/family .... I love his jokes.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Western Kentucky 7 -115 (Play at 4.5 or better. My PR line was pick but I make it a FG after capping the game, current is vandy -2.5 so I would pass at current)
Baylor -23 (Play at -33 or better, My PR was -36 and I didn't adjust really as I didn't feel a need to revisit after locking in -23, current is -34 and I would pass at current)
FAU 17.5 I played this before PR was made, I would lay off the game at anything near current. HARD game to cap.
BYU 7 (I bet this before finishing my PR, Play at 7 or better pending suspensions, My PR actually makes this -6 and depending on suspension announcements this could end up being a bad investment, Current +5 I would pass on)
Akron 38 (I made this -24 by PR and after capping it some more an extra hook to -24.5. I am high on Akron compared to market and slightly down on OU compared to market and it might be that I am off a pt here ... heck maybe two .. but the line is silly and this is one of the best current bets on the board. I would play this at 27 or better, current line 30.5)
Mississippi State -14 (I made this -18.5 by pr, -20.5 after accounting for matchup, I think there is value here on usm at current 23 so obviously I would pass)
Tulane 14 -115 I made this pick by PR, I made it Duke -3 after capping it. This is my favorite play week one, I will be on the ml in some capacity as well. Obviously this is a play at current 9/9.5 but I am not sure that 10 isn't more likely than 8 as a final line on the game so it might be good to wait.. but this is a good play win, lose or draw.
Colorado -2.5 (-10.5 by PR, -11 by capping, current is -8 and I would play it at -8 or better
Arizona -30.5 ( -34.5 by PR, I capped it to a final score of 48-13 which is why I bet the over as well. I would play at -32 or better, current is -31.5/32 so I would play it but barely. Part of me thinks it is even uglier than the final I capped it to.)
Georgia Southern 31 (PR made it 16.5, capped it to 37-20, I would need 20 to take ga southern, 14 to take wvu)
Vols -17.5 It's a no play at current.
Old Dominion 6 (Emu -1 by PR, EMU -1 after capping it, 28-27 final score prediction for emu. I have a middle going here that i think is more valuable than a EMU ticket but I would definitely take EMU at 4 or better, currently 6/6.5)
Marshall -2.5 (This one was weird because PR made Marshall -11.5 but I capped it at 6.5. No play at current 7 but my radar has gone off on this game and would prefer Purdue in it... so I played Marshall because the number was silly but in a normal week with this number I would be laying off because PR and traditional matchup capping are at odds for me)
Kentucky -14 play at -14 or better.
FIU +17.5 (Play at 17 or better. My PR made it ucf -15 and I think game dynamics make it even lower than that to maybe -13.5, current is 17 so this is a play at current)
FIU/UCF Under 46.5 I would play this at 45 or better, currently 46.5. I gave UCF a lot of credit to even get to this number)
UTSA/Arizona over 50 I totaled it 61 and won't be surprised if Zona hits 50 on their own. This is a big play at current 52.5
penn state -6 I made it -8, I would play at -6 or better. My instinct likes them as well so I laid with less variance going through the 7. Currently -6.5 and I wouldnt play it at that
south Carolina -1 I would play this at -2 or better. I would consider 2.5 but likely pass. I would pass at a FG.
eastern Michigan 7 Already discussed. I like the EMU side.
Kent state/Illinois under 51.5 I have made this total about five different times and I have come up with four different totals ranging from 45-48. I feel good about this under at 51 or less and had a kent state lean that i am passing on.
old dominion/Eastern Michigan under 65.5 you can bet this anywhere close to this. I made it 55 and gave credit to both the EMU QB and the new QB for Old Dom. This seems too easy which is scary.
Texas/Notre Dame under 55 I made this 45 so again, at anything near current of 54.5 and I would be on it.
Arizona State 3 3 or better
Colorado/Hawaii under 58 always tough to have favorite and under. Easier for me at the -2.5. I made it 51 so obviously this is a play at current 58
Baylor/SMU under 74 I made this 68 and would play at 70 or better, currently 74
Michigan St/W Michigan under 58.5 I would play at 58 or better. Situation and matchup here trumps some negatives.
Troy/NCSU Over 56.5 I have spent an ungodly amount of time on this one and feel 62 is the correct number. 58 or better for sure
Ohio State -10 -11 or better
BYU/Nebraska Under 66 I have a low confidence 57 for this game.... which made taking this number mandatory but I think i could be low.
Baylor -23 (Play at -33 or better, My PR was -36 and I didn't adjust really as I didn't feel a need to revisit after locking in -23, current is -34 and I would pass at current)
FAU 17.5 I played this before PR was made, I would lay off the game at anything near current. HARD game to cap.
BYU 7 (I bet this before finishing my PR, Play at 7 or better pending suspensions, My PR actually makes this -6 and depending on suspension announcements this could end up being a bad investment, Current +5 I would pass on)
Akron 38 (I made this -24 by PR and after capping it some more an extra hook to -24.5. I am high on Akron compared to market and slightly down on OU compared to market and it might be that I am off a pt here ... heck maybe two .. but the line is silly and this is one of the best current bets on the board. I would play this at 27 or better, current line 30.5)
Mississippi State -14 (I made this -18.5 by pr, -20.5 after accounting for matchup, I think there is value here on usm at current 23 so obviously I would pass)
Tulane 14 -115 I made this pick by PR, I made it Duke -3 after capping it. This is my favorite play week one, I will be on the ml in some capacity as well. Obviously this is a play at current 9/9.5 but I am not sure that 10 isn't more likely than 8 as a final line on the game so it might be good to wait.. but this is a good play win, lose or draw.
Colorado -2.5 (-10.5 by PR, -11 by capping, current is -8 and I would play it at -8 or better
Arizona -30.5 ( -34.5 by PR, I capped it to a final score of 48-13 which is why I bet the over as well. I would play at -32 or better, current is -31.5/32 so I would play it but barely. Part of me thinks it is even uglier than the final I capped it to.)
Georgia Southern 31 (PR made it 16.5, capped it to 37-20, I would need 20 to take ga southern, 14 to take wvu)
Vols -17.5 It's a no play at current.
Old Dominion 6 (Emu -1 by PR, EMU -1 after capping it, 28-27 final score prediction for emu. I have a middle going here that i think is more valuable than a EMU ticket but I would definitely take EMU at 4 or better, currently 6/6.5)
Marshall -2.5 (This one was weird because PR made Marshall -11.5 but I capped it at 6.5. No play at current 7 but my radar has gone off on this game and would prefer Purdue in it... so I played Marshall because the number was silly but in a normal week with this number I would be laying off because PR and traditional matchup capping are at odds for me)
Kentucky -14 play at -14 or better.
FIU +17.5 (Play at 17 or better. My PR made it ucf -15 and I think game dynamics make it even lower than that to maybe -13.5, current is 17 so this is a play at current)
FIU/UCF Under 46.5 I would play this at 45 or better, currently 46.5. I gave UCF a lot of credit to even get to this number)
UTSA/Arizona over 50 I totaled it 61 and won't be surprised if Zona hits 50 on their own. This is a big play at current 52.5
penn state -6 I made it -8, I would play at -6 or better. My instinct likes them as well so I laid with less variance going through the 7. Currently -6.5 and I wouldnt play it at that
south Carolina -1 I would play this at -2 or better. I would consider 2.5 but likely pass. I would pass at a FG.
eastern Michigan 7 Already discussed. I like the EMU side.
Kent state/Illinois under 51.5 I have made this total about five different times and I have come up with four different totals ranging from 45-48. I feel good about this under at 51 or less and had a kent state lean that i am passing on.
old dominion/Eastern Michigan under 65.5 you can bet this anywhere close to this. I made it 55 and gave credit to both the EMU QB and the new QB for Old Dom. This seems too easy which is scary.
Texas/Notre Dame under 55 I made this 45 so again, at anything near current of 54.5 and I would be on it.
Arizona State 3 3 or better
Colorado/Hawaii under 58 always tough to have favorite and under. Easier for me at the -2.5. I made it 51 so obviously this is a play at current 58
Baylor/SMU under 74 I made this 68 and would play at 70 or better, currently 74
Michigan St/W Michigan under 58.5 I would play at 58 or better. Situation and matchup here trumps some negatives.
Troy/NCSU Over 56.5 I have spent an ungodly amount of time on this one and feel 62 is the correct number. 58 or better for sure
Ohio State -10 -11 or better
BYU/Nebraska Under 66 I have a low confidence 57 for this game.... which made taking this number mandatory but I think i could be low.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Things to remember for the first weekend in September
2014 – Tropical Storm Dolly
2013 – no hurricanes or Tropical Storms
2012 – Hurricane Issac, Hurricane Leslie
2011 – Hurricane Katia, TS Lee
2010 – Hurricane Earl, TS Hermine
And so forth. While some may have not reached the coast, there was the heavy wind and rain in places, from the fringes of the storm or the remnants. Not necessarily only week 1, can carry over into week 2. Obviously has an effect on totals and big lines
2014 – Tropical Storm Dolly
2013 – no hurricanes or Tropical Storms
2012 – Hurricane Issac, Hurricane Leslie
2011 – Hurricane Katia, TS Lee
2010 – Hurricane Earl, TS Hermine
And so forth. While some may have not reached the coast, there was the heavy wind and rain in places, from the fringes of the storm or the remnants. Not necessarily only week 1, can carry over into week 2. Obviously has an effect on totals and big lines
Plus current conditions at Carrier Dome, Georgia Dome etc...
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
:tiphat:
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
totals at BM
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
08/07/15
Add Nebraska -5.5
The injury is big to the RB and we still have suspensions most likely, unless Memphis has suddenly become a more strict school than BYU.
I just believe this is the right thing to do, especially given that it was a low confidence play to begin with.
Add Nebraska -5.5
The injury is big to the RB and we still have suspensions most likely, unless Memphis has suddenly become a more strict school than BYU.
I just believe this is the right thing to do, especially given that it was a low confidence play to begin with.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
With release of a couple of the totals at betcris, there seemed to be some line adjustments made as well.
Some that caught my eye, mostly involving things I have vested in.
I flip flopped a few times when I initially put my FIU wager in because I was not positive on the direction it would move, given a lot of prior UCF backing in week 1 in the years prior to PSU overseas. However, for the short term it looks ok now as the line dipped to 16.5. Through the 17 isn't exactly key but as far as midteen numbers go it is. Generally, it is a very bad idea to fade all florida school line moves. I get more confident every day with that game. You lose all of you top wide receivers, all of your top tacklers and your run game is average at best .... tough to be ready week 1 to blow a team out that has arguably the best defense in their conference.
Cmich took some money and the line now sits at 21.5. At 21 I would have to start considering Ok st again so that is of interest to me. They were not exactly blowing teams out last year though.
5.5 appears to be the resistance point in the Utah/Mich game .. it hits 6 and mich money plays, it goes 5 and Utah money seems to come in. I won't be surprised if this game is one of the more heavily wagered of week 1. I won't be involved.
Hawaii is now down to 7.5. So at first glance I would think Hawaii would be getting money because some will think USC QB transfer will be a good fit. But that cannot be the reason as the total dropped to 56. So it would appear based on the combo of movement that it is a backing of either the hawaii defense or a fading of the colorado offense. Interesting.
Of interest was MSU moving to 20 at betcris while pinny held at 19.
I am looking to back Boise State. i was hoping for a ten ... but it moved to 11. Now I am considering teaser options for that one.
Old Dom moved to 6.5 and the total was released by betcris at 66.5. I think it is a ridiculous total. As imgn mentioned it closed 69.5 last year. One team takes a fairly big step back in QB, according to Dollaz and other things I have read it would appear that same team is taking a step back in pace, meanwhile both teams look to be improved defensively and yet the total is just a fg short of last year's close. I am never surprised by money against emu but I would think 7 is the absolute ceiling for anyone to back the Monarchs.
Surprised to see TAMU 3 at BC and still 2.5 at Pinny.
Not a lot of reaction to the BYU injury from market either with the total or the side
Oklahoma to 31
Some that caught my eye, mostly involving things I have vested in.
I flip flopped a few times when I initially put my FIU wager in because I was not positive on the direction it would move, given a lot of prior UCF backing in week 1 in the years prior to PSU overseas. However, for the short term it looks ok now as the line dipped to 16.5. Through the 17 isn't exactly key but as far as midteen numbers go it is. Generally, it is a very bad idea to fade all florida school line moves. I get more confident every day with that game. You lose all of you top wide receivers, all of your top tacklers and your run game is average at best .... tough to be ready week 1 to blow a team out that has arguably the best defense in their conference.
Cmich took some money and the line now sits at 21.5. At 21 I would have to start considering Ok st again so that is of interest to me. They were not exactly blowing teams out last year though.
5.5 appears to be the resistance point in the Utah/Mich game .. it hits 6 and mich money plays, it goes 5 and Utah money seems to come in. I won't be surprised if this game is one of the more heavily wagered of week 1. I won't be involved.
Hawaii is now down to 7.5. So at first glance I would think Hawaii would be getting money because some will think USC QB transfer will be a good fit. But that cannot be the reason as the total dropped to 56. So it would appear based on the combo of movement that it is a backing of either the hawaii defense or a fading of the colorado offense. Interesting.
Of interest was MSU moving to 20 at betcris while pinny held at 19.
I am looking to back Boise State. i was hoping for a ten ... but it moved to 11. Now I am considering teaser options for that one.
Old Dom moved to 6.5 and the total was released by betcris at 66.5. I think it is a ridiculous total. As imgn mentioned it closed 69.5 last year. One team takes a fairly big step back in QB, according to Dollaz and other things I have read it would appear that same team is taking a step back in pace, meanwhile both teams look to be improved defensively and yet the total is just a fg short of last year's close. I am never surprised by money against emu but I would think 7 is the absolute ceiling for anyone to back the Monarchs.
Surprised to see TAMU 3 at BC and still 2.5 at Pinny.
Not a lot of reaction to the BYU injury from market either with the total or the side
Oklahoma to 31
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am not going to debate it. Others can help you if they want. I have done my bit for King and Country at CTG trying to teach this and other concepts, time for someone else to pick up the torch. But I will leave you with an example to ponder for yourself
One guy takes Ohio State ML at roughly -400 when line is -9.5
One guy takes Ohio state ML at roughly -800 when line is -14.5
They have selected the same ML side but not the same bet. By your logic of winners=profit they should come out the same.
I don't have time to do my job, my gambling work, my additional gambling handicapping work, take care of familial duties and teach introductory math courses for free in my spare time. I have dropped the last one.
I do beg of you to research EV, which you clearly have not. No one should be gambling for anything other than entertainment expense if they don't understand it.
I especially do not want to waste my time explaining it to what I believe will be deaf ears.
One guy takes Ohio State ML at roughly -400 when line is -9.5
One guy takes Ohio state ML at roughly -800 when line is -14.5
They have selected the same ML side but not the same bet. By your logic of winners=profit they should come out the same.
I don't have time to do my job, my gambling work, my additional gambling handicapping work, take care of familial duties and teach introductory math courses for free in my spare time. I have dropped the last one.
I do beg of you to research EV, which you clearly have not. No one should be gambling for anything other than entertainment expense if they don't understand it.
I especially do not want to waste my time explaining it to what I believe will be deaf ears.
opcorn:
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Take -105 on a coin toss. You'll win 50% long term, but you'll lose
taking +105 is +EV
you do the math
taking +105 is +EV
you do the math
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
Funny.
I don't see the answer to any questions? Just a bit of self proclaimed teaching to a forum of "deaf ears".
Quite a lofty claim sir.
"Teaching" is likely a fault in your perception, if you categorize your vagueness as teaching?
I would think that members would appreciate an explanation a bit deeper than a ML at two different factors.
Wasn't there any EV in points spreads? You have most of your early plays posted against the spread.
I won't bother to look up EV as Im sure that you could explain it better than anyone else since its your advantage.
It wasn't my logic of winners =profit. I thought I simply agreed with Wiseplayers quote? I didn't ask for any help for me. I simply was asking as a member for anyone who was curious. Im sure not many here could challenge the EV factor because they may not have wanted to ask. But as a courtesy, you could have explained it to Wiseplayer. He was asking for validation.
As far as a ML based on the point spread, the expected risk is consistent with the variance in the two spreads.
Yet it doesn't change the expect value when they are two different risks. Isn't it perception - by how big the spread is - that increases the possibility of the advantage one team has.
Since you said one guy likes it at -400 one likes it as -800. Who has the EV? Why?
What then is the EV that stands out in that game you used as an example. You have the buckeyes at -10 ?
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for the insightful retort.
I'll try and dumb it down even more. Why can't you win long term playing roulette? Why is taking evens in red a bad bet (ie -EV)?
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
What would you call it?
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
Please don't try anymore you've exceed expectations already...
Thanks for your help.
D
dudleysdad
Guest
Thanks for all your teachings here to us amatuers. You are the man.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
You don't need a formula, its even easier than that. Just pick winners. Remember cub, "its only juice if you lose."
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Capping Genius,
You don't understand what these guys are saying? Take out the word EV if you don't like it. Your retort to Alan and VK is just wrong.
You must simply be talking about football spreads and winning only being important(and even then, long term it could still catch up with certain vig)
Surely you have to see that one can be profitable in gambling and still have a losing record. You do see how that would work right?
Yes, no one strives to "lose", but you see the point yes?
You don't understand what these guys are saying? Take out the word EV if you don't like it. Your retort to Alan and VK is just wrong.
You must simply be talking about football spreads and winning only being important(and even then, long term it could still catch up with certain vig)
Surely you have to see that one can be profitable in gambling and still have a losing record. You do see how that would work right?
Yes, no one strives to "lose", but you see the point yes?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I can't tell if you are being sarcastic and I didn't mean for my post to be "I am great". Certainly have not gotten rich on sports investing. With that said, I gambled for a living full time for two decades, made a lot in all sorts of different endeavors ranging from live poker to blackjack to video poker. I have made a lot of mistakes but also done a few things only a handful of gamblers have ever done as far as figuring out EV of Casino offerings. I have been 86ed from numerous places, forced casinos to remove games, been forced to take casinos to task with nevada gaming because they were mad I beat them and refused to pay. I would like to think at some point over the last ten years I have shared a few things at this site because there is no other subject in the world I could claim to be an expert.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
You're so arrogant.
What is going to happen in this UGA-ULM game? I know there is a winner but I'm having a tough time finding it. How many ULM realistically good for?
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
Ooooh Myyyy.
Sorry this topic forced you to inform the site about your life.
Last time I checked - NO casino ever refused to pay off a bet and unless you have bet millions,(and corruption was suspected) then maybe Im wrong.
Unless you could prove that claim and who the "Casino" was, it sounds to good to be true. As a matter of fact someone I know went to Vegas and made bets for years there and even posted his plays for the public to see. He was told by several casino's (MGM and Stardust he wagered in), that they pride themselves on not refusing any wager.
Unless you are talking some dinky little book shop that shuts down at 500.00 per game then this story is in need of some proof. Like maybe a newspaper article or some legal proof that a complaint was filed in Clark County? Shouldn't be hard to find if it was in the last 20 years. Have you won any handicapping contests at the casinos that published your name? I know that some cappers (that most people here hate), have won many of the contests. Marc Lawrence, as example and several others who have been known for decades. Yet I never read that any of them were 86'd or didn't get paid.
I cant imagine how a casino could ban anyone who drops off his money at the window, getting refused and having HIS bet cause the bet to be pulled off the board.
We've all seen games come "off" for uncertainties like injuries or other player factors that could effect the line from being posted, but gimme a break, nothing in your public makeup, would make a casino be afraid to take your bet.
Again about the EV thing. You say to go look it up. Yet you say you are one of a handful of gamblers to ever make this EV discovery? Why then - if its so effective, - can't you explain something so good, that causes the casinos to refuse to pay you, or force them to pull the game off the board?
Furthermore what casinos are still taking your bets??? Isn't the word on you, all over town? Haven't you made the news? What games are you expecting to bet, that will be removed from the board this first week once you go to the window to bet?
Im sure the MGM grand will take any bet you can carry in the building.
There are many "experts " that have their bets accepted. If you're still betting, then the casinos you bet at, know you are an "expert" that they are not afraid of.
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TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Guy has taken his share of abuse on the FOV stuff already. He posts here regularly and contributes. Maybe it's time to give him a second chance and let him post in relative peace? Been a dick to me before directly and I can forgive the guy, so why don't we try to be inclusive and give him a break?
:cigarguy:
:cigarguy:
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
I actually forgot what thread I was in as I was scrolling down reading all this stuff; not sure why someone should have to put up with this type of rhetoric in his own picks thread...pretty sure he isn't getting paid to post in here, much less explain himself about his methods, which happen to be legitimate. (how is math not legitimate?)
Would be good to just get back to football.
Would be good to just get back to football.
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
I understand twinkie. Just looking to see the answer to an EV claim, that was refused when Wiseplayer asked. Now its gotten its own life and has become something so important that it caused bets to be taken down, refused to be paid on when it won and was big enough to be filed against the casino board!
A simple answer would have been easier if it could be explained when asked. Not rejected, like Wiseplayer was unimportant for asking.
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
I AGREE. Plus I never said math didn't work. I just asked for an explanation to the EV factor when Wiseplayer was refused to get an answer.
If it is math as you say horses, than it could have been explained fairly easy.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
CG,
I have had a couple friends that have been asked to leave blackjack tables in Las Vegas. 2 deck blackjack where counting cards isn't difficult.
After a few hands, the shoe may contain a certain ratio of certain cards to another. My friend(s) would bet standard $10 bets in general. However, when the shoe got to the certain ratio that I mention, my friends would drop heavy action on the hand. Some they lost, but more they won. Floor managers know that there are players like this and they will generally ask them to leave...why?...you got it...because they are now betting at +EV against the house. The house knows this and hates this (and blackjack floor managers damn well better know this or they'll be out of a job posthaste)...and that is the most predominant reason a blackjack player will be asked to leave cuz he's betting at +EV when the shoe favors his bet. It happens.
I have had a couple friends that have been asked to leave blackjack tables in Las Vegas. 2 deck blackjack where counting cards isn't difficult.
After a few hands, the shoe may contain a certain ratio of certain cards to another. My friend(s) would bet standard $10 bets in general. However, when the shoe got to the certain ratio that I mention, my friends would drop heavy action on the hand. Some they lost, but more they won. Floor managers know that there are players like this and they will generally ask them to leave...why?...you got it...because they are now betting at +EV against the house. The house knows this and hates this (and blackjack floor managers damn well better know this or they'll be out of a job posthaste)...and that is the most predominant reason a blackjack player will be asked to leave cuz he's betting at +EV when the shoe favors his bet. It happens.
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
I agree with what you're saying. Blackjack has been hacked for years.
Pulling g down a game is another story. It takes a lot a money (more than clown money) to pull down a game, if it wasn't pulled for other spread factors. I also don't believe that Clown is betting enough money to not get paid. Unless it was some bookie . Not a house.
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
I did give you the math. Plus money on a 50% chance is +EV.
And winners does not equal profits. I could go 80% on picking winners, but I would be losing money if they were all -1000.
Simple enough?
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
Michael Shackleford, Stratosphere casino. 2007
there's one example. GCB stepped in and they had to pay
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
You have so much wrong I don't even know where to begin.
I will try bullet points to help you
1. I don't bet huge sums of money
2. I never said I had a sports bet taken off the board. I said that the casinos have been forced to remove games from my action. They are video poker largely, with some video BJ mixed in. Your reading comprehension is bad.
3. Though I don't bet large, your premise that you can walk into the MGM and bet whatever amount you want is false.
4. I never said I invented EV lol. Nor did I say I was one of a handful of people to understand EV. I said I have "done a few things only a handful of gamblers have ever done as far as figuring out EV of Casino offerings". This means coupling all aspects of the game itself, any promotion, any benefit from playing such as cash back or knowing the theoretical the casino is using and how much you need to run through for a particular mailer, and any angles regarding anything progressive in nature like Vison games, Hurricanes, Ultimate X games, Flush attack games, video bingo games and on and on and on and on. You simply have no idea what you are talking about.
5. Any time you are wronged by a casino you can call gaming. It does not have to be a large sum of money. I have done it three times in Nevada, The Vegas Club, The Cassablanca in Mesquite and the Alamo Truck Stop in Sparks. But you don't understand how that all works. Please don't comment on what you don't understand (again). I am pretty sure the Las Vegas Club ran out of money and that is one reason they refused to pay. They were also angry at the dozens of pros who crushed their promotion as soon as it started at midnight, playing keno machines. Alamo attempted to steal cash back off of their players cards for me and the other fellow who was abusing they point multiplier promotion during specific hours. I could go on ... I also am cut off from receiving Wynn mail, cut off from receiving Harrah's mail now, cut off from all promotions at the Atlantis Reno as well as all mail, and fairly unwelcome in the entire town of Mesquite. You just don't know what you are talking about.
6. I didn't dismiss Wiseplayer at all. I told him he should research it (which should have been very helpful for him) and then rather than engage in the bullshit I am engaging in now, I actually asked for his opinion on some of the games.
7. There is more to gambling than sports investing and many of those forms are much easier to beat.
8. Oh, i have only been involved in the Hilton contest two or three times .. but we did get mentioned by espn on one of those runs (not my picks for full disclosure) and finished just outside the money though we were in the top ten almost the whole tournament before fading the last two weeks.
I have taken the high road with you repeatedly and the passive-aggressive shit you pull in my threads is getting kind of old to me. I don't think I should have to deal with it in my picks thread. If you want to PM or engage me in another thread, that is fine. Please refrain from posting in here though as I am trying to help people and some people might buy into your stupidity and I would hate for that to happen within my thread.
I will try bullet points to help you
1. I don't bet huge sums of money
2. I never said I had a sports bet taken off the board. I said that the casinos have been forced to remove games from my action. They are video poker largely, with some video BJ mixed in. Your reading comprehension is bad.
3. Though I don't bet large, your premise that you can walk into the MGM and bet whatever amount you want is false.
4. I never said I invented EV lol. Nor did I say I was one of a handful of people to understand EV. I said I have "done a few things only a handful of gamblers have ever done as far as figuring out EV of Casino offerings". This means coupling all aspects of the game itself, any promotion, any benefit from playing such as cash back or knowing the theoretical the casino is using and how much you need to run through for a particular mailer, and any angles regarding anything progressive in nature like Vison games, Hurricanes, Ultimate X games, Flush attack games, video bingo games and on and on and on and on. You simply have no idea what you are talking about.
5. Any time you are wronged by a casino you can call gaming. It does not have to be a large sum of money. I have done it three times in Nevada, The Vegas Club, The Cassablanca in Mesquite and the Alamo Truck Stop in Sparks. But you don't understand how that all works. Please don't comment on what you don't understand (again). I am pretty sure the Las Vegas Club ran out of money and that is one reason they refused to pay. They were also angry at the dozens of pros who crushed their promotion as soon as it started at midnight, playing keno machines. Alamo attempted to steal cash back off of their players cards for me and the other fellow who was abusing they point multiplier promotion during specific hours. I could go on ... I also am cut off from receiving Wynn mail, cut off from receiving Harrah's mail now, cut off from all promotions at the Atlantis Reno as well as all mail, and fairly unwelcome in the entire town of Mesquite. You just don't know what you are talking about.
6. I didn't dismiss Wiseplayer at all. I told him he should research it (which should have been very helpful for him) and then rather than engage in the bullshit I am engaging in now, I actually asked for his opinion on some of the games.
7. There is more to gambling than sports investing and many of those forms are much easier to beat.
8. Oh, i have only been involved in the Hilton contest two or three times .. but we did get mentioned by espn on one of those runs (not my picks for full disclosure) and finished just outside the money though we were in the top ten almost the whole tournament before fading the last two weeks.
I have taken the high road with you repeatedly and the passive-aggressive shit you pull in my threads is getting kind of old to me. I don't think I should have to deal with it in my picks thread. If you want to PM or engage me in another thread, that is fine. Please refrain from posting in here though as I am trying to help people and some people might buy into your stupidity and I would hate for that to happen within my thread.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Couldn't you just have explained it to Wiseplayer instead of attacking me? It has been explained to you before and surely you understand its importance. If you really care about Wiseplayer then take a few minutes to explain it to him instead of going all passive-aggressive on me.
You did similar shit in one of my threads last year .. want to say it was the bowl thread .. .let me find it ...
[h=2]
ADD
Cincinnati/VT over 50
All the facts you use to cap are on target in a wide range of games, but when its time to cap Bowls there is a big need to dissect more.
In college - especially injuries - have a huge affect on stats. We don't have the resources or time to go back and find out why each team did what it did. We also don't log the true betting volumes that have occurred with books that tell them how many gamblers are staying on a team in different situations during the year. Those factors are known only by the takers of bets, not the makers of bets.
Totals are one bet that follows the crowd. Meaning that each team has a certain number of over and under outcomes. The over/under line, is indicative of that pattern. I personally hate totals because they are typically wrong by one score or more. ONCE THE GAME GOES OVER YOUVE LOST IF YOUR BET UNDER.
In sides you are always in it even when trailing by 17 getting more than 4 points. College and pro are both known for back door crushes.
Most of what Im saying here is well known and won't really make sense for us all when capping totals, but one thing that most capping styles lack is depth in capping.
We all think we've got enough to find value. Its the lack of knowing what is enough by any of us that counts. Where and when is it enough info to decide on a play?
GO to my Bowl Thread to see MY capping secrets to games ,ike this. I don't want to shit up Clowns thread. Its a full capping angle to winning games in Bowl and NFL Playoffs.
