time to post my week one card so far - 2015

I am warming up to an attempt on the middle in the Purdue/Marshall game. This would be an add on Sunday gameday for me. You all know that I am a bet early person but this particular game sort of lines up to where I think the late movement will be on Marshall. It is the lone game Sunday after a Thursday, Friday, Saturday of pretty good sized action. This is what is known as a chase game for bettors and chase games usually mean the favorite gets bet up. So I think I can get better than current in this instance by waiting. I haven't committed in my mind to Purdue just yet at this number but I am warming up to it.

col/haw under -- Last year the teams combined for less than 700 yards and 40 first downs. I think the biggest difference year over year with these two teams is a better defense for the Buffs. Current book puts Hawaii team total at roughly three td's and a fg .. I don't see it.
 
wiseplayer said:
Unders are good this time of year
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I hope so .. I am weighted. I also sort of feel better about locking in unders before I know weather since I cap as though it is nice outside for each game. My zona over is in the desert in the summer so feel I can take my chances
 
Dollaz said:
I have dove into Eastern Michigan much, but I can probably tell you there aren't many that follow ODU football as much as I do.

2015 will depend 100% on how Shuler Bentley plays; a highly touted (SC player of the year) QB that is a redshirt freshman. Everything I've read about him as been good up to this point and Heinicke really took him under his wing last year. Bentley was great at the spring game; 21-32 for 242 yards.

Obviously, the QB is a huge question mark, everywhere else the roster is significantly better than last year. They are slowing down the pace big time this year and adding a TE more often and using Ray Lawry (amazing year last year....7.1 yards/carry on 134 carries) No loses at RB.

Vaughan (speedster) is a loss at WR, but they replace him with Blair Roberts, a senior who was injured all of last year. They have some significant young talent at WR that were redshirted or saw little snaps (Reynolds, Duhart, Little)

The only loss on the OL is the center so OL should be better this year (and certainly deeper)

Defense was awfully young and has sucked for years. This will be another young squad; albeit much more talented. They have a couple 3 star ish DEs that should significantly improve the pass rush (both redshirted last year) They have gotten much bigger and deeper upfront; especially at nose tackle.

No big losses at LB and they added 2 junior college transfers. This is a solid group.

Huge losses in the secondary as they lost their top 4 corners. (safety play will be fine). Performance of the secondary will depend on a couple redshirt freshman a transfer from UAB. (Devon Brown) This is my biggest concern on the team.

I think the preseason rankings of ODU are a little low because of the loss of Heinicke. If Bentley can translate his practice ability to games, he will be every bit as productive as Heincke has been the last 2 years; the guy looks like an absolute stud in practice.

Therefore, I do expect ODU to put a solid beating on Eastern Michigan, but the 1 game nerves of a redshirt freshman QB are the big question mark.
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Great information, Dollaz. I look forward to the weekly odu thread too... it was great last year. Heineke was just so good by the eye test .. hard to imagine he can be replaced week 1 by any freshman qb talent.
 
07/25/15

Michigan State/Western Michigan under 58.5.

I guess the main factors pointing to this under for me are the pace of the two teams and the time of possession of the two teams. MSU was number one in the nation in time of possession, Wmich was 12th. Both teams show pretty good balance on offense. I really like the spot for the under here as well. We have a directional school playing the current State bully. Fleck is going to want to manage this game and keep his players at emotional highs. Try to get to the fourth qtr down 8 or less and see if they can find a way to pull it off. Meanwhile, MSU has a HUGE revenge game on deck the following week when they host Oregon, who gave them their largest margin of defeat since Oct of 2011. I think they may not want to show everything in their bag of tricks heading into this game, stay fairly vanilla, stay fairly healthy and get out of their with a win. So I think if up a decent size late that MSU will be more interested in running clock than adding scores. There will be several keys to the game staying under the total. The Wmich WR are fast and are capable of making big plays if Michigan State over commits to the run or is incapable of getting a pash rush (which I find unlikely). And the real concern is the scenario where W Michigan simply cannot guard the dive play. And that is a huge concern because they struggled stopping the run against good running teams, of which MSU applies. And it could get worse if they are incapable of picking up first downs. And that is what I am hoping for .. that W Michigan can execute, run clock like they normally do .. pick up a few first downs before they have to punt and don't turn it over. They have offensive talent so while I don't envision them scoring the 20/21 that the line/total is saying they should, I do think they can get a few first downs and probably find the end zone at least once. As with most big dog games, the first quarter is important both psychologically but also in the way the game will be managed. If MSU jumps on Wmu fast, wmu has skill players to force pace and I absolutely don't want that. This is a scary under because WMU isn't incompetent and MSU is capable of reaching 50 on their own if they are inspired to do so. I think the situation is too good to pass on when you factor in all aspects and so I went ahead and did it. But I can understand reluctance and I realize I will live in abject fear of a big play every time MSU snaps the ball. As you can probably tell, I lean MSU in the game from a matchup and talent level vs the current line position but I just hate the situation for backing MSU. If Wmich finds points I am in huge trouble obviously.
 
We should create a money management thread to help people for this marathon. Don't know if there's one from the past we could pull up. GL
 
wiseplayer said:
We should create a money management thread to help people for this marathon. Don't know if there's one from the past we could pull up. GL
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It would help me. I would say money management is one of the worst aspects of this already questionable use of my time,,,,, despite knowing Kelly and variations of Kelly, despite being well aware of what time of year I truly have an advantage, despite knowing what sports I have the greatest EV in and what sports I have negative EV in (like horse racing), despite knowing the pitfalls of chasing, despite knowing the pitfalls of multi-unit betting, etc. etc. etc. ..... I still think it is my biggest weakness in sports investing. Let's be honest. Beating sports is tough. If you can do it legally, the money is to be made by booking sports bets not making them.
 
clowncar said:
It would help me. I would say money management is one of the worst aspects of this already questionable use of my time,,,,, despite knowing Kelly and variations of Kelly, despite being well aware of what time of year I truly have an advantage, despite knowing what sports I have the greatest EV in and what sports I have negative EV in (like horse racing), despite knowing the pitfalls of chasing, despite knowing the pitfalls of multi-unit betting, etc. etc. etc. ..... I still think it is my biggest weakness in sports investing. Let's be honest. Beating sports is tough. If you can do it legally, the money is to be made by booking sports bets not making them.
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Agree completely. The excitement of the upcoming season and the rush of gambling and making money can get us in a pitfall right out the gate. I've said this a million times. It's a lot of fun to have action and risk a small percentage of my balance and think long term, than to stick my nose out there and risk too much. However, the battle comes when you risk too much and win. There's a different rush that comes from hitting big than hitting a small percentage bet. There can be boredom with not being risky.

My best example is Bowl Season. We have the holidays and 30+ games. If I go 20-10 that's a great Bowl season, however I have to be able to sustain 10 losses. If I take the approach of betting only a % of my bankroll, I will eventually reap the benefits of 20 wins. If I go with the max play approach, what if my 10 losses came at the front end of the Bowl Season? I'd never make it. I would have tapped out well before.
All in all, gambling during the season of football HAS TO BE looked at LONG TERM. Take your bankroll and try to make it grow through the Super Bowl. Scale your plays 1-10 percentage wise. If you need action (like a prime time game)and don't particularly have a play, bet 1% of your bankroll. If you must have a BiG bet when you like a play, 10% would be the Max. I'm going to try and take this approach this season. The next question is, what's the starting Bankroll going to be. GL!
 
A lot of folks around here couldn't get ten percent of their bankroll down on one event even if they wanted to. I am trying to be smarter with less basketball $ invested (post inability to tail dmoney and bb) and more baseball and football money invested. I am trying to be smarter by not being scared to have more invested week 1 of the season than the last three weeks of the season combined because I have a big advantage in the prior and a very tiny one in the later. I have made every mistake imaginable in sports investing, to include not checking a ticket at the window after a ticket writer made a mistake and gave me the opposite of an over/under, to trusting other people, to buying a 1/2 point that I know is mathematically incorrect to do, to overbetting mistakes leading me to losing outs, to making bad plays, to being lazy and not prepared to catch mistakes when they come, to not shopping numbers or being too lazy to drive across town for an extra half point (though with the price of gas these days), to lack of discipline ... you name it, I have done it at some point in the last twenty years and at times got hurt by a couple of those errors in judgment. Luckily, I have learned enough about the major errors I have made (trusting other people and losing discipline) to never do it again (knock on wood).

Anyway, I agree about long term thinking but I think I disagree about it in the way you are stating. If you need action, I suggest finding another way to vent that, which has positive EV, rather than playing the prime time game action. It's ok to be an action junkie if you always appease it with positive EV. Don't appease it with prime time action, which ironically is where most money is bet and where lines are the tightest. I would also say to never bet 10% of your bankroll on a true sporting event. That is just me though. Basically, get as much $ in play with positive EV as you can, while limiting risk to your bankroll.

I really don't want to turn this into a gaming theory thread but if others want to discuss, feel free.
 
In fact, I have greater EV, by far, in other gambling endeavors which means that the time I use for sports investing could, in and of itself, be considered bad money management. But I enjoy it, especially handicapping college football, and hate some other forms of gambling. I mean, poker is like taking candy from a baby (except the baby cries less afterwards than the poker player). I made a ton but I hate the people and the game is boring as fuck to play after playing for years and years. So I am getting a higher quality of life and sacrificing
$ by taking time to do sports investing that could be spent playing an easy to beat form of gambling instead but I accept the financial difference. In general, I am quite burnt out on gambling as a whole. I have some stuff now worth so much per hour that I can't help myself but to do it when I can but I would much rather just stick to Financial Healthcare Consulting and spend my free time doing other things compared to ten years ago when I was all about gambling in every way imaginable.

Wow I think I went on several tangents the last few posts.

Anyway, while I think NW is underrated, I am not sure that this is the spot to back them. I like the talent at the QB position but it is still raw and this might be a tough game to get footing in. So I am eliminating NW as a play barring severe upward movement in the line which would force me to take them and then bitch about how I never win when I fade steam.
 
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Prime time games when you're at home bbqing steaks with a bottle of grapes is what I mean by action betting. We've all been there. Don't like either side but a little beer money play is always more fun. Anyway, what does EV mean?
 
I would look at the BBQing and betting the Monday Night Football game as an entertainment expense, the way I view my Harness Racing habit.

EV=Expected Value. If any of you are unfamiliar with it, it would behoove you to research.
 
clowncar said:
In fact, I have greater EV, by far, in other gambling endeavors which means that the time I use for sports investing could, in and of itself, be considered bad money management. But I enjoy it, especially handicapping college football, and hate some other forms of gambling. I mean, poker is like taking candy from a baby. I made a ton but I hate the people and the game is boring as fuck to play after playing for years and years. So I am getting a higher quality of life and sacrificing
$ by taking time to do sports investing that could be spent playing an easy to beat form of gambling instead but I accept the financial difference. In general, I am quite burnt out on gambling as a whole. I have some stuff now worth so much per hour that I can't help myself but to do it when I can but I would much rather just stick to Financial Healthcare Consulting and spend my free time doing other things compared to ten years ago when I was all about gambling in every way imaginable.

Wow I think I went on several tangents the last few posts.

Anyway, while I think NW is underrated, I am not sure that this is the spot to back them. I like the talent at the QB position but it is still raw and this might be a tough game to get footing in. So I am eliminating NW as a play barring severe upward movement in the line which would force me to take them and then bitch about how I never win when I fade steam.
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http://www.hfsconsultants.com/team.shtml

which are you?
 
clowncar said:
I would look at the BBQing and betting the Monday Night Football game as an entertainment expense, the way I view my Harness Racing habit.

EV=Expected Value. If any of you are unfamiliar with it, it would behoove you to research.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
I looked at Expected Value. Still has nothing to do with determining wins and losses. Just another fancy phrase regarding subjective thinking.
 
I'm not going to argue the importance of expected value on a gambling board. So I will agree to disagree and move on.

Any sides or totals you are looking at that you think are solid bets week 1, Wise?
 
Too early for me to determine what lines are off. Teams still haven't reported so I have to wait. I' will say that totals that are more than 55 should be examined closely because these teams in week 1 usually don't score much.
 
You may need a lot of plays for the over just because I'm not sure either side will be super efficient. So a forecast for more passing is just what the doc ordered. I certainly don't think Troy ran so much LY just because they wanted to, probably more about shortening games and an inability to pass. I suspect your suspicion is right. The shutout or near shutout is your concern of course, but I still lean over, I made it 60 so I have to.
 
A. These guys are not worth 3-4 pts if you were trading them in for slightly below average players.
B. There is depth, they are not trading them in for slightly below average players.
C. Situation of the game makes me think they are focused and aren't dealing with normal suspension distraction issues.
D. This is the best college football team on paper in quite a while.
 
Agree on this.

The only really impactful loss is Bosa. But is he worth 4 points? NO. There's a lot to talent at DE but very young and inexperienced. Fortunately for OSU...VT is far from an offensive juggernaut.

Jalin Marshall is a terrific player but there is experienced depth at that position and you also have the possibility of Braxton Miller filling in here quite nicely. The plan is to also stick Braxton in at punt returner.

Dontre Wilson missed most of last season and the team still managed to be successful. Corey Smith has never really put it together on the field on a consistent basis. Both guys are replaceable.

I took OSU -14 a ways back thinking that this # would shoot up come kickoff. There had been rumors of suspensions for the past few weeks and I had the opportunity to play off it but never really felt the urgency to do so. Obviously I'd prefer -10 but I still feel ok with -14 given the currently positive state of the OL and run game.



clowncar said:
07/31/15

ADD

Ohio State -10
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phife said:
Agree on this.

The only really impactful loss is Bosa. But is he worth 4 points? NO. There's a lot to talent at DE but very young and inexperienced. Fortunately for OSU...VT is far from an offensive juggernaut.

Jalin Marshall is a terrific player but there is experienced depth at that position and you also have the possibility Braxton Miller filling in here quite nicely. The plan is to also stick Braxton in at punt returner.

Dontre Wilson missed most of last season and the team still managed to be successful. Corey Smith has never really put it together on the field on a consistent basis. Both guys are replaceable.

I took OSU -14 a ways back thinking that this # would shoot up come kickoff. There had been rumors of suspensions for the past few weeks and I had the opportunity to play off it but never really felt the urgency to do so. Obviously I'd prefer -10 but I still feel ok with -14 given the currently positive state of the OL and run game.
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You provide some insightful thoughts. Please keep posting.
 
I like that Ohio St add, CC. Don't think the offensive losses hurt the Buckeyes too much. HC Meyer will have the offense ready out of the gate in my opinion.

My best +EV is showing up to work every day.
 
horses said:
I like that Ohio St add, CC. Don't think the offensive losses hurt the Buckeyes too much. HC Meyer will have the offense ready out of the gate in my opinion.

My best +EV is showing up to work every day.
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Amen.
 
Temple WR Anderson deemed eligible. Not that I didn't expect that but it is official. They have a nice little team.
 
first glance just the texas total. i like the under as well, worth mentioning that the defense last year had trouble keeping up with offenses in the 3rd and 4th quarter. started tough, like a well coached and talented defense will do, but didn't have the depth and/or opportunity to rest due to the putrid offense. think the speed of ND's defense is gonna give watson fits in calling this game, might be worth lookin at 1h under, i know it's crossed my mind.

also, i'll be at the game. so if we need a distraction in the 2nd half (tv timeout due to drunk, naked gringo on the field) i can make that happen.
 
Elbutre88 said:
first glance just the texas total. i like the under as well, worth mentioning that the defense last year had trouble keeping up with offenses in the 3rd and 4th quarter. started tough, like a well coached and talented defense will do, but didn't have the depth and/or opportunity to rest due to the putrid offense. think the speed of ND's defense is gonna give watson fits in calling this game, might be worth lookin at 1h under, i know it's crossed my mind.

also, i'll be at the game. so if we need a distraction in the 2nd half (tv timeout due to drunk, naked gringo on the field) i can make that happen.
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The Hamptons, Notre Dame football games...must be nice
 
watson needs a guy that can throw it. just not the guy to run an offense with what they have. The thing I'll always remember is the last game of the Watson era. Big 12 championship game, last game in the Big 12 for Nebraska. It's the 4th quarter and the backup QB is giving the starting RB tips on how to run the zone read from the Wildcat. fuck me sideways.
 
clowncar said:
No apologies if I lose this year. In what is a growing trend, I will spend even less time on capping football this year. Also, all bets listed may not be for the same amount either because I like one more or because of house limits or because I make a wager when I don't have a ton of cash on me (or in my onlines). All will be one unit plays as listed in this thread for tracking purposes. I will not make two unit plays this year within the thread itself and will try to refrain from mentioning when I have more or less on a game both prior to and after the results. It is July 3rd and I doubt most of these made today are available in any capacity come gameday. So do what you have to in order to get them now if you are the tailing type.

Thread has been around a few years now, so you know the routine. Disagreement is welcomed as long as it is constructive. I will answer questions as best I can and as time permits, everyone is to be nice to each other blah blah blah.

Western Kentucky 7 -115
Baylor -23
FAU 17.5
BYU 7
Akron 38
Mississippi State -14
Tulane 14 -115
Colorado -2.5
Arizona -30.5
Georgia Southern 31
Vols -17.5
Old Dominion 6
Marshall -2.5
Kentucky -14
FIU +17.5
FIU/UCF Under 46.5
UTSA/Arizona over 50
penn state -6
south Carolina -1
eastern Michigan 7
Kent state/Illinois under 51.5
old dominion/Eastern Michigan under 65.5
Texas/Notre Dame under 55
Arizona State 3
Colorado/Hawaii under 58
Baylor/SMU under 74
Michigan St/W Michigan under 58.5
Troy/NCSU Over 56.5
Ohio State -10
BYU/Nebraska Under 66

Please note the Eastern Michigan side would be a bet at 6 or better-as you can see it is a middle attempt for me.

Strong Leans:
Arkansas -33
Kent State 15.5 added the under, settled on 17.5 as a force bet on kent st. - for now eliminated 7/23
Virginia 17

Talk Me Off Leans:
TCU -14
Okst -21 (losing interest more each day, prior a strong lean)
Utah -6 (prove it) - PR doesn't allow for it eliminated 7/23
Northwestern 12 eliminated 07/26/15 barring line movement
northern illinois -20.eliminated 07/26/15 lost the number to an extra score
Texas State 29.5 (gonna be tough considering what i passed on) 7/23 eliminated
Purdue +8 (note I already took Marshall at the stupid number so it would be a middle attempt)
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If things fall a certain way .. don't expect to see me week two.
 
Alan Tongue said:
as long as Strong is there Texas are going to need a lot more then a Lou Holtz motivation speech
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If he can learn to give the offense away and let the coordinator take it ... he could succeed. If he is going to demand slow pace and traditional sets like he did at louisville then you are right.
 
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