time to post my week one card so far - 2015

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
No apologies if I lose this year. In what is a growing trend, I will spend even less time on capping football this year. Also, all bets listed may not be for the same amount either because I like one more or because of house limits or because I make a wager when I don't have a ton of cash on me (or in my onlines). All will be one unit plays as listed in this thread for tracking purposes. I will not make two unit plays this year within the thread itself and will try to refrain from mentioning when I have more or less on a game both prior to and after the results. It is July 3rd and I doubt most of these made today are available in any capacity come gameday. So do what you have to in order to get them now if you are the tailing type.

Thread has been around a few years now, so you know the routine. Disagreement is welcomed as long as it is constructive. I will answer questions as best I can and as time permits, everyone is to be nice to each other blah blah blah.

Western Kentucky 7 -115 WINNER
Baylor -23 WINNER
FAU 17.5
BYU 7
Akron 38
Mississippi State -14
Tulane 14 -115 LOSER
Colorado -2.5 LOSER
Arizona -30.5 LOSER
Georgia Southern 31
Vols -17.5
Old Dominion 6
Marshall -2.5
Kentucky -14
FIU +17.5 WINNER
FIU/UCF Under 46.5 WINNER
UTSA/Arizona over 50 WINNER
penn state -6
south Carolina -1 WINNER
eastern Michigan 7
Kent state/Illinois under 51.5 RESCHEDULED
old dominion/Eastern Michigan under 65.5
Texas/Notre Dame under 55
Arizona State 3
Colorado/Hawaii under 58 WINNER
Baylor/SMU under 74
Michigan St/W Michigan under 58.5 LOSER
Troy/NCSU Over 56.5
Ohio State -10
BYU/Nebraska Under 66
Penn St/Temple over 38.5
Nebraska -5.5
Boise State -10 Loser
Northern Illinois -20.5
Arkansas -33
Baylor/SMU over 74 WINNER
Oklahoma/Akron over 55.5
Missst/USM over 55.5
GA southern/WVU under 58.5
Louisville/Auburn under 59
NDSU/Montana over 48.5 WINNER
Kent St/Illinois under 53.5

Please note the Eastern Michigan side would be a bet at 6 or better-as you can see it is a middle attempt for me.

Strong Leans:
Arkansas -33 added 08/22/15
Kent State 15.5 added the under, settled on 17.5 as a force bet on kent st. - for now eliminated 7/23
Virginia 17 eliminated 08/26/15 I really don't have good reasons for eliminating. I just don't want the ticket. travel, some concern over massive improvement at oline for ucla year over year.

Talk Me Off Leans:
TCU -14 not playing
Okst -21 (losing interest more each day, prior a strong lean) eliminated as of 08/26/15
Utah -6 (prove it) - PR doesn't allow for it eliminated 7/23
Northwestern 12 eliminated 07/26/15 barring line movement
northern illinois -20.eliminated 07/26/15 lost the number to an extra score, then added on 08/22 after it fell back down.
Texas State 29.5 (gonna be tough considering what i passed on) 7/23 eliminated
Purdue +8 (note I already took Marshall at the stupid number so it would be a middle attempt) eliminated 08/26/15
 
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07/03/15


Western Kentucky 7 -115
Baylor -23
FAU 17.5
BYU 7
Akron 38
Mississippi State -14
Tulane 14 -115
Colorado -2.5
Arizona -30.5
Georgia Southern 31
Vols -17.5
Old Dominion 6
Marshall -2.5
Kentucky -14
FIU +17.5
FIU/UCF Under 46.5
UTSA/Arizona over 50

 
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Of note ... I like Eastern Michigan to win that football game and might have a play going the other direction by kickoff but the line there is stupid and had to be played. I also was looking very hard at Purdue in week one as a probable play but again, didn't expect that line. I was almost willing to lay a million on Arkansas because of matchup but they lined it a million plus 1.
 
GL this season like always, get money vk. I'm way behind where I should be at rite now
 
phife said:
Arkansas down to -33. Is that number in your wheelhouse yet?
Click to expand...


Not sure but it is in the area. I will want perfect weather to do it. There is an issue with the running clock in this game if Arkansas does not get off to a fast start. The premise of liking Arkansas is pretty straight forward. UTEP runs the ball and is really incapable of passing and is in transition at the QB position. On the road at Fayeteville seems a tough place to break in a QB if UTEP falls behind and the Arkansas defensive front seven looks pretty nasty to me ... meaning I don't think UTEP can run on them. In addition, the UTEP slow pace and ability to run is what protected their defense last season. If you look at the games where they struggled running the ball, you will find the defense was not quite as good either .. not as rested and had to defend more plays. They are just going to get physically dominated in the football game and you would think Arkansas progresses a little year over year with the system. It just lines up very nicely for Arkansas assuming there are enough snaps in the game. The pace of play is the biggest problem with the investment. So I am waiting it out and since the number dropped from openers there is no hurry anyway.
 
clowncar said:
Not sure but it is in the area. I will want perfect weather to do it. There is an issue with the running clock in this game if Arkansas does not get off to a fast start. The premise of liking Arkansas is pretty straight forward. UTEP runs the ball and is really incapable of passing and is in transition at the QB position. On the road at Fayeteville seems a tough place to break in a QB if UTEP falls behind and the Arkansas defensive front seven looks pretty nasty to me ... meaning I don't think UTEP can run on them. In addition, the UTEP slow pace and ability to run is what protected their defense last season. If you look at the games where they struggled running the ball, you will find the defense was not quite as good either .. not as rested and had to defend more plays. They are just going to get physically dominated in the football game and you would think Arkansas progresses a little year over year with the system. It just lines up very nicely for Arkansas assuming there are enough snaps in the game. The pace of play is the biggest problem with the investment. So I am waiting it out and since the number dropped from openers there is no hurry anyway.
Click to expand...


Prolly a pretty good investment as they will wear and break some and could be a score like Gar said...but with the 'bolded' you definitely have to pause here and take your time.
 
Bielema has always been good to me when playing doormats dating back to his time at Wisky. He doesn't give a F about running it up.
 
7/15/15

Kentucky -14
FIU +17.5
FIU/UCF Under 46.5
UTSA/Arizona over 50
 
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I strongly considered using Kentucky in a ten point teaser as I hate trusting teams like this to score enough to ever feel safe ... thoroughly confident they win the game without threat ... Went over this game with a sunbelt guy tonight and with Gar/Horses the other night (though I was physically ill and deranged so maybe that explains this play). It is by far my least favorite that I have made so far .... but one of the things Gar, horses and I discussed was where the line will likely go .... and so I felt compelled to play this now given our agreement as a significant rise would take the teaser out of play too. I like a few things about this game ...the schedule UK has following this game ... they have to go to South Carolina with the cocks seeking revenge in week two .. almost certainly will be on scarolina there at any reasonable line, and then face Florida and Missouri in back to back home games. It isn't just that this schedule is so tough early but the types of teams they are playing. I think it will be tough for these guys to get off on the three upcoming SEC foes and with the new OC, a quick start here should be in order. ULL replacing the QB is huge here ... tough to start out on the road against better athletes. i don't think ULL can line it up and run it down UK throat and not certain they have the same running ability in the QB position. There will be growing pains. I think UK has a huge advantage in the kicking game as well. ULL YPA defense was horrible last year and especially so out of conference (sans Fajardo bowl) ..... and so I think that is what could be trouble for ULL..... because what do they do when they fall behind with a new QB taking snaps? They were 100th in the nation in passing yards per game last year with a decent QB who fit their system ... they were able to run on the sun belt teams and wear them down but this seems like a game where they get worn down by better athletes and better depth. On the defensive side of the ball, the cajuns lose one of the best players in the entire conference .. I just don't think you can expect them to have a run defense or pass rush close to what they had a year ago. So back to what I was saying ....what do they do when they fall behind DD? And so I think this is a game that UK comes out ready for, more ready for than ULL ... and takes care of business .. btw .. I wouldn't sleep on UK at home to Missouri a few games down the line.
 
B.A.R. said:
Prolly a pretty good investment as they will wear and break some and could be a score like Gar said...but with the 'bolded' you definitely have to pause here and take your time.
Click to expand...


The more you look at the pace numbers, the tougher this gets to play. UTEP was by far the slowest paced team in football last year .. Arkansas was about the third slowest, excluding option teams. It's just a perfect matchup for Arkansas though.
 
phife said:
Bielema has always been good to me when playing doormats dating back to his time at Wisky. He doesn't give a F about running it up.
Click to expand...


True. Wisconsin home field worth a little more than Fayetteville though and a faster track. I will need perfect weather to play it and I could see being very frustrated by 6 minute unconverted or fg drives. Gar likes to think about holding the opposing ticket .. and I know I wouldn't want to be holding a miners ticket in this one.
 
The game I'm looking forward to the most is Michigan @ utah. I haven't gone too much into depth but do have a lean at this stage. Any opinion, mate?
 
Alan Tongue said:
The game I'm looking forward to the most is Michigan @ utah. I haven't gone too much into depth but do have a lean at this stage. Any opinion, mate?
Click to expand...


No interest in Michigan. I have mild interest in Utah. If Michigan were to win, it would be their best true road win since September 11th, 2010 at Notre Dame (and even that is debatable, not to mention they scored the winning TD there with under 30 seconds to go- DRobinson had a huge game). So game 1 in a new system in what is going to be a crazy home field environment is a tall order, imo. Talent is there, coaching is there, but it is hard to reap immediate dividends. Pts theoretically could be at a minimum and that is the concern of the game from the favorite perspective .. plus the Harbaugh factor. I think the line is pretty telling though when Michigan has received more press since the National Championship game than Ohio State has. The other problem I have though is that last year's game was really competitive .. moreso than the 26-10 final would have you believe. Michigan actually outgained Utah despite being minus 3 in turnovers and held the Utes to 2.2 yards per carry and under 300 yards .... it makes it tough to lay for me when if I were to believe there would be a drastic improvement for either it would more likely be Michigan. I also don't mind waiting on this one .... the line won't move a ton away from 6 either direction and the crowd here at CTG usually has good thoughts on Wolverines games that I can read later too. Incidentally, instinct tells me the under may be a trap of sorts too ... maybe not as it will be a heavily bet game (which has seemed to reap unders over the years) ....

Tough game and I will probably sit it out while watching and seeing what Michigan has to offer for future bets .. at Utah is a very good early litmus test for speed, size, execution.

What are you seeing, Alan?
 
Thanks, similar to what I'm thinking. Utah don't get the attention they once did when they were in the M-West. They flew under the radar last season, with loses to the North and South champions, and the other 2 by a point and OT.. Booker is an underrated beast, but they do have few coaching changes. The one thing that interests me is they are very good at home. Combine that with a number of returners. Plus I think there maybe an early Harbaugh premium factored into. Michigan maybe a tad overpriced here

Im in the process of going through every team, and this one caught my eye. Going to dig deeper
 
The statistical breakdown is interesting...watching it live, my recollection was that Utah was the much better team and far more motivated. Harbaugh should help with the motivation, but not sure what he can do about the talent/speed disparity. There was also a very long lightning delay at which point the game was essentially over. Not sure what stats were accumulated once both teams took the field again in an empty stadium.

I think the elephant in the room is the qb play for mich. Gardner wasn't great but he was a physically talented player who could give you something in the right circumstances. With better coaching in a competent offensive system I think he could've done well. But he's gone. Go watch game footage of Shane Morris and get back to me. Harbaugh isn't going to wave a magic wand and turn that kid into a player. With a porous O-line going against a good defense in a hostile environment...he's a sitting duck. And a frail one at that. Maybe Ruddock gets the start instead? Getting notes from fall camp will be helpful in this regard. But IMO Shane Morris is automatic fade bait until proven otherwise.

Utah returns their qb's and Booker. UM loses their best 2 offensive threats in Gardner and Funchess. Just not sure where UM has improved from last year to bridge the gap between them and Utah...especially playing in what will be a very hostile environment at a different altitude.

I took Utah -3 and feel good about it.
 
TheGarfather said:
phife has it dialed in.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

we are going to get that Hargaugh premium for the first half of the season. I think people are expecting immediate success. But he just doesn't have the cattle at present.

Utah have lost DC Sitake to the good guys, and again have new co-OCs. That's a question mark for me
 
I would think Rudock starts. He's just a guy...Prob won't lose the game, but he won't win it either.
 
I actually just assumed that Rudock would start over Morris...neither option is that great and Harbaugh will surely upgrade the position but Morris is a stiff imo.

I do actually think the Michigan OL will be fairly decent this year. Tough call but the talent and xp is there.
 
Alan Tongue said:
Thanks, similar to what I'm thinking. Utah don't get the attention they once did when they were in the M-West. They flew under the radar last season, with loses to the North and South champions, and the other 2 by a point and OT.. Booker is an underrated beast, but they do have few coaching changes. The one thing that interests me is they are very good at home. Combine that with a number of returners. Plus I think there maybe an early Harbaugh premium factored into. Michigan maybe a tad overpriced here

Im in the process of going through every team, and this one caught my eye. Going to dig deeper
Click to expand...


Realistic price?

Obviously all the early 'limit' prices have been wild all over the place.
 
horses said:
I actually just assumed that Rudock would start over Morris...neither option is that great and Harbaugh will surely upgrade the position but Morris is a stiff imo.

I do actually think the Michigan OL will be fairly decent this year. Tough call but the talent and xp is there.
Click to expand...


I think when all said and done Rudock does and perfect for this team, this year with no big play-makers. Just don't make mistakes and let what should be a top-15 defense do their work.

OL finally has 2-deep at most spots and not coached by stiffs...will be much better...


Shane has some potential, I doubt he wins it but he can do a few things(first time having a QB coach etc...came here at wrong time). If he does play, just learning from JH is big.
 
phife said:
The statistical breakdown is interesting...watching it live, my recollection was that Utah was the much better team and far more motivated. Harbaugh should help with the motivation, but not sure what he can do about the talent/speed disparity. There was also a very long lightning delay at which point the game was essentially over. Not sure what stats were accumulated once both teams took the field again in an empty stadium.

I think the elephant in the room is the qb play for mich. Gardner wasn't great but he was a physically talented player who could give you something in the right circumstances. With better coaching in a competent offensive system I think he could've done well. But he's gone. Go watch game footage of Shane Morris and get back to me. Harbaugh isn't going to wave a magic wand and turn that kid into a player. With a porous O-line going against a good defense in a hostile environment...he's a sitting duck. And a frail one at that. Maybe Ruddock gets the start instead? Getting notes from fall camp will be helpful in this regard. But IMO Shane Morris is automatic fade bait until proven otherwise.

Utah returns their qb's and Booker. UM loses their best 2 offensive threats in Gardner and Funchess. Just not sure where UM has improved from last year to bridge the gap between them and Utah...especially playing in what will be a very hostile environment at a different altitude.

I took Utah -3 and feel good about it.
Click to expand...


Love the analysis...and thanks for posting...before I make my post underneath I will respond to a few things for some good debate...

I'll go bolds..

#1 Definitely more motivated. This UM team has been fractured for some time.

#2 Devin is one of the brightest kids you will meet at that age. He got thrown from receiver to QB to receiver and back during HS/College and never had proper coaching. He definitely got some stagefright IMO.

#3 The porous o-line angle should be gone. RichRod didn't recruit that position much at all so with coaching changes/attrition etc UM has had to put guys out early who were not ready at all and the scheme was horrific at times.

With that being said, look up their rushing stats in NOV last year. Progress...

#4 Funchess was garbage last year after first game and then injury. As far as closing gap, who knows? Michigan will have a top 15 defense in country. Improved o-line? Absolutely. Running game...is Ty Isacc done partying this summer and ready to look like the beast he showed in some snaps at USC? We will see.



----------------------------------------------


As far as betting...you got -3..nuetral site says UM favored. Tough to tell but cannot argue your bet whatsoever with the unknowns.
 
my man BAR Uof M baby what a great D utah will get under 50 yards rushing a big fat goose egg:money::moose:BAR you no what this means to the bank baby mint gov mint
 
B.A.R. said:
Love the analysis...and thanks for posting...before I make my post underneath I will respond to a few things for some good debate...

I'll go bolds..

#1 Definitely more motivated. This UM team has been fractured for some time.

It's not unreasonable to think that UM would be higher up for this game compared to last year at home vs Utah which was basically rock bottom. But exactly how much more motivated? It's game *1* of the Harbaugh regime. These aren't even his guys that he recruited, fall camp will probably be a weeding out process...there's no guarantee that this team will be down to run through a brick wall for Harbaugh right out of the gate.


#3 The porous o-line angle should be gone. RichRod didn't recruit that position much at all so with coaching changes/attrition etc UM has had to put guys out early who were not ready at all and the scheme was horrific at times.

These are Hoke's players not Dick Rod's. It just so happens that Hoke recruited his ass off at OL but the players didn't develop. Will the OL be fully developed and comfortable within the system come game 1? I guess we'll have to see but I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that this group will morph into competency overnight. Protecting Ruddock/Morris will present a greater challenge.

With that being said, look up their rushing stats in NOV last year. Progress..

Against Indiana, NW, Maryland and...OSU. Sure, running the ball well against OSU is nice but even OSU's rushing defense wasn't all that great last season. Having Gardner under center might have kept the defense more honest and opened up the run game a bit more compared to UM's current options...both immobile pocket passers who don't pass the ball particularly well.

#4 Funchess was garbage last year after first game and then injury. As far as closing gap, who knows? Michigan will have a top 15 defense in country. Improved o-line? Absolutely. Running game...is Ty Isacc done partying this summer and ready to look like the beast he showed in some snaps at USC? We will see.

Funchess was a 2nd round draft pick and a guy on the field opposing teams needed to account for. Who is that threat this year? Isaac bailed from SC because he couldn't crack their very average RB rotation. Defense loses Jake Ryan and Frank Clark. Who is filling these spots?


As far as betting...you got -3..nuetral site says UM favored. Tough to tell but cannot argue your bet whatsoever with the unknowns.
Click to expand...

Line is up to 5.5-6 now and last year UM was favored by 9 and lost by 16 so I'm not gonna get too hung up over the opener...especially since many of the opening lines were downright silly.

​Let's pretend for a moment that UM's jersey's had MARYLAND printed above the numbers and Harbaugh wasn't coaching. Where would this game be lined? With major uncertainty at the qb position and not many objectively clear upgrades at other positions how many points are we willing to give Harbaugh in game *1* after taking over a crippled program? You have far more accomplished cfb coaches (Saban, Meyer, etc.) who wouldn't be given this type of line bump.

I read somewhere that UM as getting the 4th or 5th most bets to win the NC outright...which is nuts.
 
phife said:

Line is up to 5.5-6 now and last year UM was favored by 9 and lost by 16 so I'm not gonna get too hung up over the opener...especially since many of the opening lines were downright silly.

​Let's pretend for a moment that UM's jersey's had MARYLAND printed above the numbers and Harbaugh wasn't coaching. Where would this game be lined? With major uncertainty at the qb position and not many objectively clear upgrades at other positions how many points are we willing to give Harbaugh in game *1* after taking over a crippled program? You have far more accomplished cfb coaches (Saban, Meyer, etc.) who wouldn't be given this type of line bump.

I read somewhere that UM as getting the 4th or 5th most bets to win the NC outright...which is nuts.
Click to expand...

2nd paragraph = gold
 
phife said:

Line is up to 5.5-6 now and last year UM was favored by 9 and lost by 16 so I'm not gonna get too hung up over the opener...especially since many of the opening lines were downright silly.

​Let's pretend for a moment that UM's jersey's had MARYLAND printed above the numbers and Harbaugh wasn't coaching. Where would this game be lined? With major uncertainty at the qb position and not many objectively clear upgrades at other positions how many points are we willing to give Harbaugh in game *1* after taking over a crippled program? You have far more accomplished cfb coaches (Saban, Meyer, etc.) who wouldn't be given this type of line bump.

I read somewhere that UM as getting the 4th or 5th most bets to win the NC outright...which is nuts.
Click to expand...


Good thoughts for sure...


The line last year was ridiculous to begin with. I need to find the thread, lol. It was discussed.

-------------------------------


I wrote up a whole 'nother thing two nights ago but lost it before I could post...


As far as this game...and I have loved this play for awhile and obviously it will change a bit before the first week but I will prolly be on UTAH tt Under pretty big.
 
7/23/15

Kent state/Illinois under 51.5
old dominion/Eastern Michigan under 65.5
Texas/Notre Dame under 55
Arizona State 3
 
My PR fell Utah -5.5 which is in line with current numbers. And the way I see the game playing out really doesn't allow me to lay the points. I eliminated it.

I also eliminated Kent State. I did add the under to this game and I feel it is a bit of a way to back Kent State as a side. I had a hard time envisioning the path kent state had to covering in a high scoring game. Pace of the game should be below average. On paper, kent state has what should be a somewhat average defense (which is saying something) this season and Illinois defense is the perfect situation for the under in my opinion. Kent State lacks playmakers on offense but does have a reasonably decent QB and began executing a bit better down the stretch last year. Illinois just had a bad defense last year. No way around that. But they have bigger and faster players than kent state and the kent state oline is not going to line up and do any damage against them consistently. So I sort of see it playing out where kent can get first downs, but can't get big plays .... and to score they are going to have to string first downs together. The first quarter of this game will probably be key as I definitely want a slow pace and I think the pace will quicken if Illy jumps on them fast. PR does like kent state some but looking over the schedule ... this would be a tough one for a HC to lose at Illinois and have a job at the same school next spring. I think the game plays out in a way that makes the >2 TD a good option but if Illinois comes out real fired up and Reardon turns it over, it could get ugly. I would also watch the steam in this game as it has been pretty good in Illinois games the last few years.

Now I am not saying last years game wasn't an absolute fluke of sorts between emu and old dominion but a mid sixties total between two teams who had 1 .. yup one .....offensive TD in last years game seems a bit out of line to me. Especially when one team is replacing a star QB the way old dom is. I do like the EMU qb and think he can get first downs in this game but you can never expect 30+ from this team and they return a bunch of their defenders from last year ... which may not be a great thing but it does mean they should be better on that side of the ball year over year at a minimum. Game is in Ypsilanti where only one game reached this total last year (Toledo). Obviously this won't be another 17-3 type of game like last year but I will take my chances. Pace numbers from last year seem to back the under as well and old dom almost has to be slower this year without a ten year (hehe) starter back there ... third down conversions should be perfect here .... old dom will drop year over year for the season and emu will rise enough to put their defense in less bad situations. under so weather can only help ... 24-23 and calling for the upset.


ASU 3 - not gonna get into great detail. qb is the concern but I am just backing what I consider the better all around football team and specifically the better defense. ASU is a team that should be better prepared for what TAMU does too. Some of the SEC schools are built a little different defensively and it works for them ... but can struggle with this type of offense. ASU can struggle against it too but they are used to spread attacks coming from the pac12. TAMU fell off offensively the second half of last year. I am taking the better team and hoping Sumlin doesn't wizard them in his house.
 
ASU QB had some solid stats in his limited time last year as well so not sure the loss of Kelly will matter either
 
clowncar said:
Of note ... I like Eastern Michigan to win that football game and might have a play going the other direction by kickoff but the line there is stupid and had to be played. I also was looking very hard at Purdue in week one as a probable play but again, didn't expect that line. I was almost willing to lay a million on Arkansas because of matchup but they lined it a million plus 1.
Click to expand...

I have dove into Eastern Michigan much, but I can probably tell you there aren't many that follow ODU football as much as I do.

2015 will depend 100% on how Shuler Bentley plays; a highly touted (SC player of the year) QB that is a redshirt freshman. Everything I've read about him as been good up to this point and Heinicke really took him under his wing last year. Bentley was great at the spring game; 21-32 for 242 yards.

Obviously, the QB is a huge question mark, everywhere else the roster is significantly better than last year. They are slowing down the pace big time this year and adding a TE more often and using Ray Lawry (amazing year last year....7.1 yards/carry on 134 carries) No loses at RB.

Vaughan (speedster) is a loss at WR, but they replace him with Blair Roberts, a senior who was injured all of last year. They have some significant young talent at WR that were redshirted or saw little snaps (Reynolds, Duhart, Little)

The only loss on the OL is the center so OL should be better this year (and certainly deeper)

Defense was awfully young and has sucked for years. This will be another young squad; albeit much more talented. They have a couple 3 star ish DEs that should significantly improve the pass rush (both redshirted last year) They have gotten much bigger and deeper upfront; especially at nose tackle.

No big losses at LB and they added 2 junior college transfers. This is a solid group.

Huge losses in the secondary as they lost their top 4 corners. (safety play will be fine). Performance of the secondary will depend on a couple redshirt freshman a transfer from UAB. (Devon Brown) This is my biggest concern on the team.

I think the preseason rankings of ODU are a little low because of the loss of Heinicke. If Bentley can translate his practice ability to games, he will be every bit as productive as Heincke has been the last 2 years; the guy looks like an absolute stud in practice.

Therefore, I do expect ODU to put a solid beating on Eastern Michigan, but the 1 game nerves of a redshirt freshman QB are the big question mark.
 
I don't think you have enough plays. You usually have more than 24 on opening day? (Competing against Fondy)

GL on the season.
 


last year 107 plays the first month so about 27 a week: 33,30,25,19 for weeks 1,2,3 and 4 respectively.

60-44-3.

I gave a bunch back before having a great bowl season. I did a good job of attacking most when it was weak sauce lines the first month but maybe didn't taper enough after that. But I am trying as hard as I can to treat it the same way I treat other positive EV endeavors in gambling. Almost every year I pass on something week 1 when it was better than the biggest advantage of week 10. Because it is hard to have that much in play in one day. So I am trying to force myself to be smarter and play more games. It wasn't hard for week 1 with the lines that are out there. So I hope to have another 7 or 8 .. or else I feel like I should stop two months in because those bets for me (whatever they are then) are likely to be less valuable than the 25th-35th best ones week 1.
 
I think I have DD number of lines with more than fg the best of it ..... will I even get one of those in week 10? not unless it is a total.
 
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