I like how you used different colors in this post. Maybe do it more often? GL this week cc
time to post my week 8 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya they played fairly well against Duke. Not sure they were that much better than Duke (thought duke was better for the bulk and NW was better late third qtr on)
Good stuff ... thanks for posting in my thread. I appreciate it.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I would hesitate to take under bc OdU sped up the pace again once they switched QBs. I need to do some research on how FUI does vs read option/athletic QBs before I have a strong opinion. In curious if the switch helps our Lawry as well with occupying one defender.
Washington has the look of a good QB; great athlete, cannon for arm, accurate, but it remains to be seen how he manages an offense and how good of decisions he makes.
Los 50s is just a low total for the kind of pace this game might have. Interested in hearing CCs take as well.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Again, credit to the coach for making the switch. It had to be done.
Pace for ODU is fast in the sense that the time between their plays is short .. the problem is their 116th in the nation in time of possession because they simply can't get first downs (11th at 17.5 per game). I think they are better with this guy at QB on offense and I agree it makes it that much easier for Lawry to get off .... in the same way someone was discussion Elliott for TOSU as a big benefactor of JTB starting. And FIU had a bunch of defensive injuries out of last game even though most of them were very minor. That would be a concern to stopping odu. There really isn't that much data as far as FIU facing read option ...Holman, Sudfeld, Frohnapfel, Driskel ... Kavika Johnson, the las cruces 200 pound boy wonder was the only real running qb they have faced. He and the rest of the white hats for utep didn't do much that game. In order for ODU pace to matter, they have to have the ball to do it. Charlotte is playing fast right now which played into the ODU pace last game along with the scoreboard which forced pace. I think the defense is the strength of FIU and I am positive it is the strength of ODU. Unless ODU just gets run out of the stadium, i don't see it reaching the number.
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
GL this week. KY looks very good at 11.
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
I'm not as interested in who you are on, but definitely why
I agree wholeheartedly with Alan's comment. After I make my tentative picks on my spreadsheet, your plays are the first I take note of. Some I bet on, some I pass on, a few I fade. But t really helps to know where you stand, and why.
I agree wholeheartedly with Alan's comment. After I make my tentative picks on my spreadsheet, your plays are the first I take note of. Some I bet on, some I pass on, a few I fade. But t really helps to know where you stand, and why.
Judge Smails
Vegas For March Madness Coordinator
I enjoy seeing the BOL openers/BM(CRIS) stuff you crush and wouldn't mind the variance plays that you are still trying to get us to "talk you off of" on a Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, but maybe that's just me. EX: "These are the ones that are in my zone for plays as long as it stays between x and y. But with this QB having sex the last 3 days, if the number drops to z, I'm off that play." It helps with both type of forum users: (1) the ones who wait patiently for the Sunday NFL 2nd round of games timing of books releasing college plays to pounce on poor openers, and (2) the visitors to your thread that are checking out what is out there to compare their plays with during the week after the openers have settled.
There's probably a group of forum and thread visitors I am leaving out, but for the serious guys, your thread gives them something to compare to before, during and after making their own plays AND to the straight tailing variety of viewer, they can use your plays/simple analysis/14-word write-up as a barometer regardless of day of week and outlet.
Hope that helps in your quest for greatness, Kyle of the Desert. Plus, any thread where Kyle of the South chimes in on, is a great thread!
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ok don't get mad at me ... but I had to bail on a play
ADD
Memphis/Tulsa under 78
In addition, I have added a couple of plays
ADD
Iowa State/Baylor under 79
Umass 14.5
And one other note ... I recommended the Toledo/Umass under earlier. I no longer think that is a good investment. I am keeping my action because I would rather lose a unit at risk than give away 0.1 units. I don't like the over, I just think after further review that my number was too low. So I will personally be looking at options at halftime or if the line moves down options at getting off it with a middle chance. That is the difference between memphis/tulsa and tol/umass ... I was able to get off of the memphis/tulsa total while maintaining an outside chance at a middle with three pts the best of current. Looks like some weather tomorrow most likely in tulsa and I just can't play an over totaled that high without decent weather.
Texas State total is another where i have an over and it looks like weather/wind could come into play. I think I would lay off that total as well if you haven't gone over it yet. As it sits, it has moved way down and I won't get polish middled so i am left holding the ticket. But I wanted to tell you that I wouldn't recommend this to you (or me) if the weather isn't good.
ADD
Memphis/Tulsa under 78
In addition, I have added a couple of plays
ADD
Iowa State/Baylor under 79
Umass 14.5
And one other note ... I recommended the Toledo/Umass under earlier. I no longer think that is a good investment. I am keeping my action because I would rather lose a unit at risk than give away 0.1 units. I don't like the over, I just think after further review that my number was too low. So I will personally be looking at options at halftime or if the line moves down options at getting off it with a middle chance. That is the difference between memphis/tulsa and tol/umass ... I was able to get off of the memphis/tulsa total while maintaining an outside chance at a middle with three pts the best of current. Looks like some weather tomorrow most likely in tulsa and I just can't play an over totaled that high without decent weather.
Texas State total is another where i have an over and it looks like weather/wind could come into play. I think I would lay off that total as well if you haven't gone over it yet. As it sits, it has moved way down and I won't get polish middled so i am left holding the ticket. But I wanted to tell you that I wouldn't recommend this to you (or me) if the weather isn't good.
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
Kentucky seems to be very capable of playing to their competition, which I think is the result of finally getting some talented kids in and having a green coaching staff that doesn't really know what to do with them. They were better than Auburn last Thursday IMO, but a redzone INT in the 1H and bad play calling on the final drive cost them. I haven't seen much of Mississippi State this year, but they haven't done anything overwhelming and I'm not sure they have any type of significant talent edge here to just run away with it if both teams play to their capabilities. It also looks like they were neck-and-neck with LT last week before a punt block set up an easy TD right before half and shifted momentum. This is only UK's second road game and first since Week 2 so I have a tough time seeing them not fully focused and it seems like they have the horses to keep it interesting.
lindetrain
Pretty much a regular
Oh well you added it, nevermind then
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
CTG Posted
104-87-10 54.5%
Got beat up last week. Second losing week out of the 7 weeks.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Quick thoughts on Air Force....
As with all the academies, you have to start by looking at the rush defense of the opponent. Fresno State has some interesting stats when you break them down... On the face of things, the Fresno State rush defense looks just a little below average giving up 4.53 yards per carry on the year. The problem is that once you account for their opener things change dramatically. They played abilene Christian and held them to 1.17 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Since that time they have given up 4.87 yards which is more around the 100th area (Obviously if you removed every teams best game they drop but giving perspective). AFA is 3-3 and still has utah state and an away game against boise state on the schedule. They need to show up to this type of game to get bowl eligible and are off a loss at CSU. They have averaged over five yards per carry and this is the worst fbs rush defense they have faced this season. Meanwhile, Fresno state needs to run to succeed. They average 5.4 yards per pass attempt (122nd in nation) so when they get behind it just becomes real tough for them. This is especially true for this game because AFA has a decent rush defense .. holding Mich St to 77 yards at 1.83 per carry in that game and opponents to 3.77 yards per carry on the season (They also have a skewed game 1 fcs opponent game). Held Sjsu to 150 who average 166, mich st to 77 who average 157, Navy to 270 who average 335, Wyo to 115 who average 174, and col state to 160 who average 164. So they have managed to hold every opponent below their season average (an average that includes the AFA number too as I did not exclude them in that look at the rush numbers). So we have a situation where I think AFA will be the more motivated team, will be able to run at will with their option attack, and who can A. Stop what Fresno State likes to do on offense and B. Stop Fresno State's really inefficient passing game if the Dogs cannot run or are forced to pass because of the scoreboard. We all know AFA is not as good without Romine but Fresno has lost Childress and Virgil for the year themselves and red shirt freshman Kilton Anderson (fourth string to start the year) is making his first road start.
Has to be worth a go.
As with all the academies, you have to start by looking at the rush defense of the opponent. Fresno State has some interesting stats when you break them down... On the face of things, the Fresno State rush defense looks just a little below average giving up 4.53 yards per carry on the year. The problem is that once you account for their opener things change dramatically. They played abilene Christian and held them to 1.17 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Since that time they have given up 4.87 yards which is more around the 100th area (Obviously if you removed every teams best game they drop but giving perspective). AFA is 3-3 and still has utah state and an away game against boise state on the schedule. They need to show up to this type of game to get bowl eligible and are off a loss at CSU. They have averaged over five yards per carry and this is the worst fbs rush defense they have faced this season. Meanwhile, Fresno state needs to run to succeed. They average 5.4 yards per pass attempt (122nd in nation) so when they get behind it just becomes real tough for them. This is especially true for this game because AFA has a decent rush defense .. holding Mich St to 77 yards at 1.83 per carry in that game and opponents to 3.77 yards per carry on the season (They also have a skewed game 1 fcs opponent game). Held Sjsu to 150 who average 166, mich st to 77 who average 157, Navy to 270 who average 335, Wyo to 115 who average 174, and col state to 160 who average 164. So they have managed to hold every opponent below their season average (an average that includes the AFA number too as I did not exclude them in that look at the rush numbers). So we have a situation where I think AFA will be the more motivated team, will be able to run at will with their option attack, and who can A. Stop what Fresno State likes to do on offense and B. Stop Fresno State's really inefficient passing game if the Dogs cannot run or are forced to pass because of the scoreboard. We all know AFA is not as good without Romine but Fresno has lost Childress and Virgil for the year themselves and red shirt freshman Kilton Anderson (fourth string to start the year) is making his first road start.
Has to be worth a go.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Remember in the preseason??? Back when Auburn was ranked too high and Arkansas was the trendy pick in the SEC? Wow. Ark now 2-4 and Auburn is 4-2. This is good news for Arkansas because Auburn has idaho remaining on the schedule, meaning the Tigers will only need to find one win vs an SEC opponent down the stretch to reach bowl eligibility where as Arkansas will be in major trouble to reach bowl eligibility with a loss Saturday as they still have At Ole Miss, At LSU, vs Miss St and Vs. Missouri on their remaining schedule. The records are also good news when you put them into perspective. Auburn was outgained and out first downed in their win against louisville, outgained and out first downed in their win against jacksonville state, outgained and out first downed in their win against San jose state, and out gained and out first downed in their win against kentucky last week. If you were not counting, that means they were outgained and out first downed in EVERY win. In fact, the loss to Miss State is the only game where one could argue they were legitimately the better team on the field that day, through their first six games. Meanwhile, Arkansas has out gained and first downed their opponents in four out of six games and two of their losses were highly undeserved from a level of play standpoint. This has given us value in the line. And while Auburn had a weekday game last week, Arkansas is coming off a full bye. They will be prepared. In addition, BB has a bit of disdain for Gus and I think he really wants this game badly on a personal level beyond the team season aspirations. Auburn simply isn't any good right now, and the team that is pretty good (Arkansas) has hfa, a bye and a lot more motivation.
Has to be worth a go.
Has to be worth a go.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Houston has the fifth most yards in fbs and is the fifth highest scoring team in fbs. UCF is 127th in fbs in scoring and dead last in fbs in total yards. UCF is 67th in the country in total defense giving up roughly 392 yards per game but it doesn't even tell the whole story .... because they have played the 99th, 33rd, 84th, 124th, 104th and 100th ranked offenses in fbs in their six games against fbs opponents (an average ranking of 90.7 !). I really could go on and on about the stats supporting a Houston play in a pretty big way but I won't. This cougar team has lost two nailbiters to ucf in the last few years ... I suspect they get their revenge here.
Saw those, good stuff.
TheSportsCruncher
Pretty much a regular
Good cap on the GASO@APP Under CC, well done.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Just curious. Have you ever looked at what your record would be if you took the other side of your plays at the closing number? You tend to predict market value and get the best of each line at a high clip, rarely moving against you.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Not really. I know I have run unusually unlucky the last ten years in that regard though. Meaning, while I have won slightly more games (which I am not complaining about and quite frankly deserve) as a result of my good numbers from Sunday-Tuesday, it isn't as good as it should be (which would mean fading myself at close would not generate profit - though a breakdown on the big movers would be interesting to see). My bad numbers have come into play a lot the last decade. I can recall one week with 14 bets where I had the best of it in 11 and the worst of it in 3 and won zero as a result of my good number and lost two as a result of my bad number. Unfortunately for me, the number just hasn't mattered as much as it should. And while I used to devote more time to this to have time to track such things, these days it is all i can do to get my bets in and track the results segregated by sport.. I can't really spend a bunch of time doing a bunch of metrics on my stuff. The other thing that I would have to do is go back through and determine whether I would have played a game at the closing number or not for a different metric.
For my purposes, it really is just a way I can see if I am doing this well. As long as the lines/totals move the way I think they should on a consistent basis then I know I am capping the games right or noticing value right. That should be enough to give me confidence to keep going (though it doesn't take much for me to consider stopping nowadays because 1 bad week and I start thinking about not wanting to give back the profits with bets that decrease in value as the year progresses).
Something else that I perceive but have not tracked is my late adds as a result of steam seem to not have the value i think they do. For instance, say the first time I see Toledo/Umass number it is Toledo -11. I make the line 12,5. I pass on the game. It gets steamed to 14.5. I then take the game on the extra score. Those types of plays traditionally have done not so good for me (perception, I haven't tracked it). So in my mind, both my perception that my good numbers haven't mattered as much (land between close and line I bet) as I think they should and my perception that I have done bad when making plays when taking a side or total after it was steamed the other way, makes me think that following the steam isn't that bad even at the lesser number. I also know that books hate steam chasers (especially the ones who attack the books who are slow to move).
If I make a lot of bets and have a great year at 55% where I don't beat the close, I really don't feel like I would know whether I am making positive EV plays or not. If I make a lot of bets and have a not so great year at 49% and I consistently beat the close then I am fairly confident that I am playing with positive EV. So for me, the tracking vs the close is a way to know whether I am doing good work or bad work ..... I am doing good work this year (I am especially proud of my totals that seem to gradually move the way I would expect as the week progresses this year). Meanwhile I am having a good year with results too but if I didn't know what the games closed at, I really wouldn't know if the winning % is just short term luck/fluctuation.
Then you also have to be a bit locked into the market. Did I get line value (or lose line value) because of a trueish market or because of singular opinions...
Let me give an example.
ulm pickem vs idaho
Say drbob releases ulm as a play against idaho
his tailers slam into ulm
the line moves to ulm -2
the rest of the market is relatively indifferent to the game and small amounts of money are bet on this game because less people care about it, less people have quality info on each team, it is less likely to be a bet they can watch, etc. etc
So it closes ULM -2.
Two pts of line value but is it true line value? Because had drbob released idaho at pickem it would have closed at Idaho -2 and you would have two pts of line value that way too !!!!
So it is tough to know sometimes whether you are up against a true market (more likely in the heavy bet headliner games of the week) or just big money based on a singular opinion.
All of it is very difficult to ascertain from this side of the counter. So I just look at the aggregate for myself, for my purposes .... for just a general understanding of whether or not I am doing good work and playing with an edge.
Hope that helps as I realize I rambled and hit upon a tangent or two
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
great read CC. one thing I have done this year some is double down on a better number against steam when it was RAS or someone releasing a play. Example like 3 weeks in a row when RAS was against App St. Line opens at like -17 or something like that, RAS releases against App St and the line which I already felt great about dropped to -14 or better. I doubled and it was a winner beating even the opener. Curious your thoughts against steam on a play you feel like you are on the right side of. I also met Billy last week on one play like this and it didn't do so well (Ball St) so I realize this isn't something you would look to do often, and probably not often against Billy
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Most of my bets are done early, so I just have to trust my numbers. So while I would rather be with the proven winners like RAS or or some of the guys i talk to on a regular basis (sometimes we are opposite each other of course), there isn't much I can do about it.
I don't have a problem double dipping on the ones I am extremely confident on (2012 Mich st against Cmich comes to mind where they kept betting cmich big and i kept taking more mich st.) but I am not a believer in the general practice of adding more to the bet at a better number.
The reason I say that is because the bets that are moving against me are generally going to be my bad bets. My negative EV bets. I really don't want more money in play in those games where it is more likely that i am wrong than right (more likely i made a bad play than a good one). Again, if it is a game i feel i have pegged to perfection and think market is crazy then sure ... but otherwise i think you are throwing away good money chasing bad money when you add to line moves that indicate you are on the wrong side.
But I am more likely to do so if I think the move is the result of a singular opinion than the overall market, if that is what you are asking.... though even there it may depend on the opinion ...
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
Thanks CC I think I was just more of the mind that the market had App St pegged wrong so I took my shot for those weeks, Navy was another I did a couple times when I did not understand the moves against them but I think I learned my lesson last week when I was against Billy. Like you said the opinion matters but it is hard to tell if it is a singular or multiple opinion
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
That was an excellent read. For those that have been around long, that is the type of write-up we would get on nearly every game he played.
..and it answered my question. Thanks CC.
..and it answered my question. Thanks CC.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya. I have no idea what Billy Walters is actually on, outside of Rex's best guess, so no point in me worrying about him. I guess RAS is the only opinion where there are fairly transparent results for a long enough period of time for me to be sad I am against them. I hate being against Timh here for pete's sake. Hate being against Dwight or other guys I chat with regularly who I know are long term winners. But even the best singular opinion is going to be wrong about 44% of the time so I try to not get too worked up over being against them on five or six games over the course of the year ... usually going to be on the same side and not against is my guess.... sample will be small on the opposite scenarios because most people making good numbers are going to line up on the same games more often than on opposite sides of a game.
One thing I do when opposite of an opinion i respect is to look the game over again.
I mean ... if I bet a cbb total and then found out D$ or Ritos were on the other side of me, then that is a case where I know I most likely made a bad bet. I am fairly confident they are WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY better than I am at generating accurate cbb totals (Which I won't even do this year).
So it all depends.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It fit in perfectly. Was not a hijack. I appreciate every post you make in my threads.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya maybe the "good" writeups come bowl season.
I only started using Excel the last few years and I have never made time to import past years stuff into excel ... I could analyze my stuff a lot easier if I had it all data-entered into that program.
bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
looks like the only sides we are differing on will be Vols and UMass
BOL on them All VK
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
This guy is a logic machine, and much smarter than the average bear, and me. Great read Kyle..thanks.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
slight lean to over 21 2h in san diego .. laying off in case utah state makes adjustments in the run defense. It is by far the strength of their team so tough to see them getting rolled like this in the run game .... they may respond and if they do, it would stay under that number ... but the way the game rates to play out 2h, you have to lean over at the 21 they have out there.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Gameday additions
Indiana 16.5
tosu -21
tosu/rut over 64
colorado pickem
Spent a good bit of time capping the colorado/oregon state over lean and fell into liking the side instead. TOSU was out of sight and out of mind for a bit with it being off the board most of the week. Think there is little reason to think the Buckeye offense doesn't roll them hard here. Some possible weather for the indiana mich state game .... spot seems bad for msu who has looked vulnerable almost every week. Indiana with Suds and Howard can give most teams fits.
Indiana 16.5
tosu -21
tosu/rut over 64
colorado pickem
Spent a good bit of time capping the colorado/oregon state over lean and fell into liking the side instead. TOSU was out of sight and out of mind for a bit with it being off the board most of the week. Think there is little reason to think the Buckeye offense doesn't roll them hard here. Some possible weather for the indiana mich state game .... spot seems bad for msu who has looked vulnerable almost every week. Indiana with Suds and Howard can give most teams fits.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I'm sure Pfife could give you a better answer, but found it strange that the side stayed relatively in line w/ the opening. On the other hand the total jumped a full score w/ the announcement of the QB change. Like the side more with the news.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I keep fading rutgers and not winning, though I should have with Kansas .. think i had the only number that didn't win there.
P
phife
Guest
This is what I thought. I don't think the jump in total coincided with the inevitable announcement of the qb switch but I don't remember the timing exactly.
As for the side, I think with the amount of $$ lost this season people are still looking to fade OSU or are at least remain in "prove it to me" mode. There were stretches of the game against PSU where they still looked like warmed over ass (granted that was with Cardale). Barrett resembled his old self last week but still didn't get a lot of work through the air. He'll need to throw it for OSU to live up to their lofty power rating.
Leonte Caroo has obviously been a big boost and is worth several points for Rutgers. Supposedly a game time decision.
Redscot
Pretty much a regular
College Football not my sport. You and others on this site are invaluable in helping me get through CF 101. I definitely appreciate you efforts and the insight as to your reasoning.
:cheers3:
Judge Smails
Vegas For March Madness Coordinator
:shake:
Alan Tongue
Pretty much a regular
solid stuff on this last page. Real good
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Another good day. Had potential to be great.
Let's grade the losers
Memphis under 78 - Obviously this was me bailing on some bad weather information and I have to beat myself up a little bit for not revisiting it closer to kickoff. Original cap of the over was spot on. So I guess it is a bit of 20/20 hindsight to knock myself too hard but also a little bit of bad work (cap was fine) to not follow up. As my buddy said .. Weathermen are even worse at predicting weather than I am at predicting games.. which is pretty bad. GRADE N/A on the handicap.
TAMU 6 -- This was a game I felt extremely good about heading into it. Thought TAMU matched up well on the defensive side of the ball and that ole miss defense was a little banged up. TAMU had competed against Bama but got bad QB play in that game. Well, I thought the bad QB play was the result of Bama defensive line pressure and maintained a decent opinion of Kyle Allen. But he looked like a deer in headlights yesterday. The game speed appeared too much for him. He had the Yips. Missing wide open guys with his eyes, missing wide open guys with his arm ... playing scared in the pocket. While the WR did get open here and there as I just mentioned they didn't do it consistently and never helped Allen on a 50/50 ball. 28 first downs to 12 , 471 yards to 192. Uhhhh ya .... Grade FMinus
to be continued ....
Let's grade the losers
Memphis under 78 - Obviously this was me bailing on some bad weather information and I have to beat myself up a little bit for not revisiting it closer to kickoff. Original cap of the over was spot on. So I guess it is a bit of 20/20 hindsight to knock myself too hard but also a little bit of bad work (cap was fine) to not follow up. As my buddy said .. Weathermen are even worse at predicting weather than I am at predicting games.. which is pretty bad. GRADE N/A on the handicap.
TAMU 6 -- This was a game I felt extremely good about heading into it. Thought TAMU matched up well on the defensive side of the ball and that ole miss defense was a little banged up. TAMU had competed against Bama but got bad QB play in that game. Well, I thought the bad QB play was the result of Bama defensive line pressure and maintained a decent opinion of Kyle Allen. But he looked like a deer in headlights yesterday. The game speed appeared too much for him. He had the Yips. Missing wide open guys with his eyes, missing wide open guys with his arm ... playing scared in the pocket. While the WR did get open here and there as I just mentioned they didn't do it consistently and never helped Allen on a 50/50 ball. 28 first downs to 12 , 471 yards to 192. Uhhhh ya .... Grade FMinus
to be continued ....
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