time to post my week 8 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Yup both defenses match up really well to the opponent. Both rush defenses are ranked in the top ten and both offenses would prefer to run it. Both pass defenses are pretty good too .. 6.7 and 6.3 ypa against respectively. Both teams are in the slowest 30 paced teams category so far this season ... Should just see a lot of running clock. Think the kickers are average at best too so we could see a nice long drive end in a FG miss too. Incidentally, there is probably a little bit of line value with SDSU as these teams are not that far apart for SDSU to be receiving this many at home. Utah State scored all those points last week but it wasn't from great offense. They only had 334 yards (threw up in my mouth) and averaged less than 5 yards per play in that game. Averaging just 5.31 yards per play for the year. SDSU relies heavily on the stud RB and then play action off of over-reaction to him by the defense. It works well. Team is well coached and tackles well. Everything seems to line up for an under so 20-20 overtime should be heading our way.
TheSportsCruncher
Pretty much a regular
I lined UNC higher than 21 in both!
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
:NoNo: Holy smokes how in the world is this total higher than at aTm last week?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I realize last Sarurdays line was bad and maybe this is partial correction .... but the implication is wake minus 1.5 neutral to uva. Ya no.
RetroVK
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I don't get it either but they are betting bama like free money. Current numbers in market say bama gets 36/37...
RetroVK
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Looks like charlotte might start acting more like last years team from a plays per game perspective. If so usm should score a lot
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
May be the case, but the average margin of victory in those 5 years is over 28 points.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
How hard were you laughing after mich "punt"?
RetroVK
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
As for utah asu game ..I watched with an under ticket (hence the kickoff return td and giftwraps mentioned). I felt Utah was a deserving winner of the game but the spread as coinflippish. Btw right before the third down handoff I sent a friend a text wondering if Booker was smart enough to slide. Nope is the apparent answer.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Yep, just think offensively there are way more challenges this year than any year other since what, 08'? Past several years we've had at least one WR go bananas since that career day DJ Hall had against them, think he actually had two in consecutive years but there was one where he went nuts. Cooper last year, so maybe Ridley does here but I don't really see it.
Tenny had their past offensive output last year against Bama in 10+ years and they got to 20, don't see them getting to 20 in this game. Also just don't see Bama getting into mid 30's like last year, prob more likely mid 20's. I'm just thinking it's gonna be a 23-10 type game.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I'm friends with him on facebook. He changes jobs it seems like every couple months. Was working at regions bank, then was selling cars, now maybe coca cola? He was getting lotta love recently with that sick catch the kid from Stanford(?) recently just had where he caught it behind the defender. I was a soph in T-Town that unexpected 10-2 season where he broke his leg. He should have never been in the game at that point, but I digress.. Don't know that he ever wanted to coach, he wasn't a Saban guy, his final year was 05'. Remember Jimmy Johns? Former Mr. Football Mississippi. He literally almost killed me one night in T Town, have some funny stories about him DJ and Nick Walker even Jacob Hester's mom when she showed up at the frat house when yall were in town. Different kind of student/athlete out there now under Saban lol.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
It should have been the catch by the Stanford kid that got you thinking about Tyrone Prothro.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Help me with some leans guys ...
Strong leans:
Col/OrST over 60
gasouth/app st under 62.5 (Running clock ..i keep lowering it every time i look at it but the current is around my original)
fau/utep und 58.5
kentucky 11
sdsu 5
umass 14.5
tol/umass under 60.5 (I kind of know this is correct play)
Talk me off
ULL/Ark St under 62.5
unt/marshall und 60
duke/vt und 44
Strong leans:
Col/OrST over 60
gasouth/app st under 62.5 (Running clock ..i keep lowering it every time i look at it but the current is around my original)
fau/utep und 58.5
kentucky 11
sdsu 5
umass 14.5
tol/umass under 60.5 (I kind of know this is correct play)
Talk me off
ULL/Ark St under 62.5
unt/marshall und 60
duke/vt und 44
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
:crying2:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
"The evidence is mounting that Toledo has a pretty good defense, Kyle"
:cigarguy:
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
this made me laugh haha
I know when we have big 5 stars in state and ya'll come sniffing around, a big pitch by Miles and Co. is...."Yea you can go play there, but what if, IF you don't go to the NFL??? Bama will have you for a few years, LSU got you forever"
ksimpsc
Pretty much a regular
yea you got me worried about my Toledo over, mass is typically an under team. I am leaning app st under as well. Orgst seems like they are going over every week that is a strong play. I am on the all under in the ULL game. Low number in the duke/VT game and would lean under but any cheap points and you are done
Following the same thought process, does anyone else find the Northwestern - Nebraska line strange? Or has Michigan just been adjusted that far upward, or Northwestern that far downward, since they played a couple weeks ago?
G
Gyno
Guest
That total should of never opened at 52.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
You could be right. I felt it was a bit low last week too but it took 4 non offensive touchdowns to get to 64. I think more often than not that game stays under mid 50's.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
On my lunch hour ...
Strong Leans
Col/OrST over 60 Still thinking.
gasouth/app st under 62.5 Played it at 63.5
fau/utep und 58.5 lost number eliminated
kentucky 11 Added at 11
sdsu 5 Eliminated
umass 14.5 Still thinking
tol/umass under 60.5 (Played 62.5)
Talk me off
ULL/Ark St under 62.5 Lost number .. eliminated.
unt/marshall und 60 played under 60
duke/vt und 44 Leaning to avoiding. Is Brewer back this week for sure?
Strong Leans
Col/OrST over 60 Still thinking.
gasouth/app st under 62.5 Played it at 63.5
fau/utep und 58.5 lost number eliminated
kentucky 11 Added at 11
sdsu 5 Eliminated
umass 14.5 Still thinking
tol/umass under 60.5 (Played 62.5)
Talk me off
ULL/Ark St under 62.5 Lost number .. eliminated.
unt/marshall und 60 played under 60
duke/vt und 44 Leaning to avoiding. Is Brewer back this week for sure?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think NW is being lowered for not just the last two weeks but also for what now looks like a horrible performance against Ball State. In addition, it is possible that Nebraska is pretty good. But yes,,, ,the line has been adjusted upward (I just think there is more evidence to support that than there is with the Wake Forest vs UVA with one game inbetween for each.)
Also, these NW kids are the same entitled ones that wanted to get paid for play too. So they are probably in the middle of quitting like they did last year. Sorry had to throw the jab at those jerks for trying to ruin my favorite sport.
P
phife
Guest
Northwestern packed in 2 years ago as well, IIRC. They don't seem to respond well to losses in big games.
RetroVK
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The last play of the Ohio State Northwestern game is my favorite play by play by Brent Musburger of all-time. It is perfect.
RetroVK
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Per my favorite site for judging pace, Ga Southern is the fourth slowest team in the country and App State is the 24th slowest team in the country. And using plays per game as a measure they are even slower than that as a combo. App State is 16th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game, and 17th in the nation in yards per rush against at 3.17. Good rushing defenses don't always translate to being able to defend the option attack but I would rather have a good one than a bad one. Incidentally, Georgia Southern has a statistically good rush defense as well .. somewhere in the top fifty area. Good enough. Just think it should be noted that they had 195 rushing against West virginia (good rush defense, no Ellison and a lot of time for WVU to prepare) ... Since that time they have faced the 95th, 124th, 126th and 127th ranked rush defenses in the nation statistically. Granted .. we are only a couple months into the season so some of the bad rushing numbers for the teams they faced are because they played against Ga Southern .... but it has been a looooooong time since Ga Southern has faced a good rush defense. And that is sort of important in more ways than one .. I mean, even if you assume they can run with some success, you have to assume that they are not peeling off runs at an average of 7 or 8 yards the way they have been. When you are running for chunks the clock stops on the made first downs each time, even if only temporarily and I think it will take them more attempts to get first downs ... which makes it not only tougher sledding for them but it also means they should in fact be even slower than normal, at least from a plays per game perspective. App State has run 411 plays .. 282 of those have been rushes. So they are going to be run heavy as well.
Much like Ga Southern ........ App St played a really good run defense early in the year after their FCS opponent, in the form of clemson. They managed 10 pts there. Since that time they have played the 95th, 96th, 112th, and 124th ranked rushing defenses.
So basically I see two slow teams and two rushing teams and they are both facing opposing rush defenses that are miles better than what they have faced in the last month. Seems like a good spot for one or both of them to struggle to find the end zone as frequently.
Much like Ga Southern ........ App St played a really good run defense early in the year after their FCS opponent, in the form of clemson. They managed 10 pts there. Since that time they have played the 95th, 96th, 112th, and 124th ranked rushing defenses.
So basically I see two slow teams and two rushing teams and they are both facing opposing rush defenses that are miles better than what they have faced in the last month. Seems like a good spot for one or both of them to struggle to find the end zone as frequently.
P
phife
Guest
Yep. That was the game that did it. NW was ranked and considered a live dog against OSU at home. They lost and then went out and got shellacked by Wisconsin the following week and I don't think they were heard from again. Kind of an interesting parallel to this year's michigan and Iowa games.
And I happened to have covered on that ridiculous lateral play which may have been my luckiest win of all time...up until this past Saturday when I won on the MSU moneyline, lol.
TheSportsCruncher
Pretty much a regular
GASO @ APP will be a fun one. GASO has played really bad pass defense this year, we'll see if APP throws more than usual to try and exploit it. Agreed neither team has played a good run defense in a while, while they've both been pretty solid against it. App has faced a slightly tougher line up of run defenses, while GASO has faced a tougher schedule of run offenses. Overall I think GASO will have the dominance on the ground, and APP (hugely) in the air. That being said I prefer the strong run match up to the passing one most of the time, so I lean GASO to cover. As for the total, with both teams having matchup advantages for the offense (even accounting for compensated stats) means I lean Over. But because of the pace and run heavy offenses you mention that are automatically factored into my line, I set the total a hair under 60, which puts a little bit of line value on the Under against the steam.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Just realized that I misread the meaning of your question ... it opened texas a one pt favorite I believe.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I just don't have the time to do the writeups anymore. I work a ton of hours now and travel every week.
I did do them for a lot of the bowls last year before tiring on that too.... but that is at least possible with only one or two or three games to cap on most of those days ... gives time to be more giving on the writeups.
I realize from a content perspective the thread is a shell of its former self both from my input and the discussions we used to have when people would cap out some of my TMO's (which was the major benefit i got from the threads).
I will try to do a little bit better at explaining some of the plays going forward this year. Ga southern/appst under style though .... not the graphic novels i used to write.
RetroVK
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RetroVK
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Thanks. Looks like you were at a minimum correct about where the Bama line would go. .....
RetroVK
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Ya I will try to be more active with some reasoning but it won't be like the old write ups .. i just dont want to put that kind of time into the actual writing of the things to make all the thoughts make sense and come together to the play .. but i can do the mini-types like i did for the ga southern app st under.
The other issue is that i lowered my unit a lot and expanded the number of plays a lot ... so writing up all those plays is just too much.
re: northwestern
1) The union thing was all Kain Colter, rumor was the team easily voted it down, but those votes will never be counted. Caused some rift in the locker room as well, or at least thats the excuse for poor play that year.
2) Yea, they fell apart after Ohio State game, but they also lost on a hail mary to Neb, a FG by Mich that should not have counted that forced OT, and a pick 6 in the Minnesota game. They got shellaced by Bucky and the spartans but should have won the other games.
3) They were terrible last year as well mostly due to injuries (2014).
4) This year is just bizarre. How the hell do you beat Stanford and Duke then get destroyed by Iowa and Michigan. Their offense just plain stinks. I think Mich and Iowa watched tape and just loaded the box and made Thorson throw. Thats probably the recipe the rest of the year. Their defense was really really good for 5 games, but Michigan and Iowa both totally controlled the LOS on both sides.
I have no idea what to expect, but usually when they are sucking like this, they pull out a miracle win (see ND/PSU/Wisc last year, at Neb in 2011, a few others)
1) The union thing was all Kain Colter, rumor was the team easily voted it down, but those votes will never be counted. Caused some rift in the locker room as well, or at least thats the excuse for poor play that year.
2) Yea, they fell apart after Ohio State game, but they also lost on a hail mary to Neb, a FG by Mich that should not have counted that forced OT, and a pick 6 in the Minnesota game. They got shellaced by Bucky and the spartans but should have won the other games.
3) They were terrible last year as well mostly due to injuries (2014).
4) This year is just bizarre. How the hell do you beat Stanford and Duke then get destroyed by Iowa and Michigan. Their offense just plain stinks. I think Mich and Iowa watched tape and just loaded the box and made Thorson throw. Thats probably the recipe the rest of the year. Their defense was really really good for 5 games, but Michigan and Iowa both totally controlled the LOS on both sides.
I have no idea what to expect, but usually when they are sucking like this, they pull out a miracle win (see ND/PSU/Wisc last year, at Neb in 2011, a few others)
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I could start doing the "I would play to" next week ... will add it to the post where plays are posted not the first. I think the LSU WKU game is the most interesting game of the week from a handicapping perspective. VERY tough to line and total.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya .... luckily or unluckily for me, I make so many plays now that I am almost always opposite someone i respect on something.
RetroVK
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CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Guilty..
Cool read and watch on history of App St/GSU rivalry for anyone interested: http://www.underdogdynasty.com/2015...-hate-the-history-of-appalachian-state-versus
aplous
Donkey Hater
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