time to post my week 8 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
104-87-10

Locked In

Clemson -2.5
Arkansas -4
Air Force -17
Houston -19.5
Vols 14.5
TAMU 6
ohio -2.5
texas st -2.5
usm -15.5
Kentucky 11
umass 14.5

GaSouthern/Appst under 63.5
Tol/Umass under 62.5 (I no longer want this ticket. If you tail, I don't recommend this bet though I have to keep it)
UNT/Marshall Under 60
Memphis/Tulsa over 75
Memphis/Tulsa under 78 (Bailed due to potential weather with a middle shot)
mtsu/latech under 66
wash st/zona over 72
sbama/texst over 69.5 (Potential weather. hammered lower. Stuck with it)
utah/usc under 59
Charlotte/USM over 58
Indiana/Michigan State over 63
Tennessee/Alabama Under 56
Missouri/Vanderbilt over 35
Old Dominion/FIU under 53.5
utahst/sdsu under 46
ISU/Baylor under 79

Indiana 16.5
tosu -21
tosu/rut over 64
colorado pickem
 
Last edited:
Clemson -2.5
Arkansas -4
Air Force -17
Houston -19.5
Vols 14.5
TAMU 6

 
Last edited:
curious to hear you talk about Bama/Tennessee. Tennessee has two weeks rest, but Bama needs all of the style points they can get. Saw Tennessee pound Dobbs two weeks ago, but don't think that will be affective against Bama. I thought it would be closer to 17-21
 
Marlo said:
curious to hear you talk about Bama/Tennessee. Tennessee has two weeks rest, but Bama needs all of the style points they can get. Saw Tennessee pound Dobbs two weeks ago, but don't think that will be affective against Bama. I thought it would be closer to 17-21
Click to expand...


Bama didn't look all that good against Texas AM .... but it was an emotional game .. coming off at uga, vs ark, at tamu and with lsu on deck and vols off a bye. Recent lines involving both teams also do not jive with this line. I do think bama, as you mention, does match up well against tennessee .. sort of like they do against arkansas. But spot is great for Vols.
 
And there it goes ... Rice bet removed from me.

As such, I edited post 1.

I assume Rice opens over a td the favorite at BM.
 
If there is a game Utah could lose it's this one. That being said, if I'm getting points with Utah I will be betting Utah.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Nice give Utes another chip on their shoulders to play with
Click to expand...

Exactly. You aren't dealing with a bunch of entitled prima donna's with this team. They will use this to their advantage. There are at least 10 kids on Utah that wanted a USC offer out of HS and they will want to beat that team badly. If Utah's getting points, I will let it go as high as possible and it will probably be a huge play for me.
 
Stealing money on that Arkansas grab. Like all your SEC plays, great get at 14.5 on Tenny. Gonna be a super ugly one. Biggest concerns there for you are Bama defense scoring. If Kelly is out at center with the concussion still playing the under at anything in the 40's is a great plan, IMO. Bama offense was laughable when he left the game. Good luck, my friend!
 
Hey guys ... wondering if any of you are getting use out of me posting these wagers. I mean if you are paying attention and come here you can crush the numbers that are usually far enough off that you will get value. And showing the process of how to approach things is far more valuable than any handicapping analysis I could offer anyone. But I wonder if maybe I shouldn't have one post about openers and then a separate post about what is still good Monday?... In other words, are enough people getting value out of me posting these? The tracking is useless for me since I have a ton in play more than posted. And I don't update it after i add to it (when applicable)... for instance I had way more on wku at -30.5 last week than -27.5 but I don't want to deal with a thread here where i track to that detail where I am breaking down how much at each number.
Again, while I think showing the process does more for people than showing plays .... do you think you would get more benefit if I just posted monday what I would play at those? Or more benefit of posting my bm stuff sundays rather than the silly bol mirror stuff?

I want to be as helpful as possible (6-10 here last week cough cough) and want to know what would be most helpful to you all. I don't need to dick wave numbers that aren't even the bulk of most of my investments unless it is actually helping some people.
 
Two Utes said:
If there is a game Utah could lose it's this one. That being said, if I'm getting points with Utah I will be betting Utah.
Click to expand...


I can't imagine that the game closes above usc -3 and won't be surprised to see Utah close the favorite. I will be passing on the game unless something ridiculous is posted somewhere
 
CrimsonK said:
Stealing money on that Arkansas grab. Like all your SEC plays, great get at 14.5 on Tenny. Gonna be a super ugly one. Biggest concerns there for you are Bama defense scoring. If Kelly is out at center with the concussion still playing the under at anything in the 40's is a great plan, IMO. Bama offense was laughable when he left the game. Good luck, my friend!
Click to expand...


Ya I haven't seen an update yet .. not on donbest either. They didn't look so good yesterday imo....couple of big runs ..some decent playcalling first half i thought ... some nice screens .. but they were not consistent enough. Turnovers were their friend. Thought they played very hard though. Even Saban seemed heavily engaged emotionally.
 
Not really sure I saw anything last night that warrants Utah being favored on the road here. They were wrong side of their game, USC was right side of theirs, and this is already a pretty big adjustment from what we'd have seen a few weeks back. Best hope for Utah is that USC threw everything they had at ND and just quits now.
 
I am with Lindetrain; I have adjusted accordingly and still have the Trojans with home field. I saw the USC game in Tempe and I saw the Arizona St game in SLC and nothing indicates to me why the Utes should be a road favorite here. Guess it's possible USC considered yesterday their personal super bowl and come out flat but I think they'll look forward to playing an undefeated, top 10 team at home. They'll feel like underdogs no matter the spread.

Guess the Rice cancellation was inevitable.
 
lindetrain said:
Not really sure I saw anything last night that warrants Utah being favored on the road here. They were wrong side of their game, USC was right side of theirs, and this is already a pretty big adjustment from what we'd have seen a few weeks back. Best hope for Utah is that USC threw everything they had at ND and just quits now.
Click to expand...

agree with this
 
bm openers ,.. i am cutting back betting size from last week fwiw... pretty small wagers.

ohio -2.5
clemson -5.5 and then some -5
air force -17
tamu 4
houston -20
usm -15.5
tex st -2.5
ark -5.5
vols 14

I will add any new teams to the first post ... and will leave my best number on any others so that I can say I hit 55% at the end of the year.
 
clowncar said:
Hey guys ... wondering if any of you are getting use out of me posting these wagers. I mean if you are paying attention and come here you can crush the numbers that are usually far enough off that you will get value. And showing the process of how to approach things is far more valuable than any handicapping analysis I could offer anyone. But I wonder if maybe I shouldn't have one post about openers and then a separate post about what is still good Monday?... In other words, are enough people getting value out of me posting these? The tracking is useless for me since I have a ton in play more than posted. And I don't update it after i add to it (when applicable)... for instance I had way more on wku at -30.5 last week than -27.5 but I don't want to deal with a thread here where i track to that detail where I am breaking down how much at each number.
Again, while I think showing the process does more for people than showing plays .... do you think you would get more benefit if I just posted monday what I would play at those? Or more benefit of posting my bm stuff sundays rather than the silly bol mirror stuff?

I want to be as helpful as possible (6-10 here last week cough cough) and want to know what would be most helpful to you all. I don't need to dick wave numbers that aren't even the bulk of most of my investments unless it is actually helping some people.
Click to expand...



I absolutely do and hope you continue :shake:
 
What did you make Boise CC? My 37 is maybe a couple high, but 31 has to be low, and it certainly does not seem like an ideal spot for the dog with Boise off a really bad loss.
 
lindetrain said:
What did you make Boise CC? My 37 is maybe a couple high, but 31 has to be low, and it certainly does not seem like an ideal spot for the dog with Boise off a really bad loss.
Click to expand...


I made it 31 which included a bump for embarassment. I was also the high of anyone I compared notes with until you just now. With that said, I would want no part of Wyoming in this one because they might take their frustrations out on the cowboys. Harsin was so pissed he kept risking his QB's life all the way to the final whistle in a game where he was getting abused over and over again with no chance at winning. Pretty sure it is going to be quite the week of practice for them. Meanwhile, Wyo tasted victory. I can see where a higher line than my 31 is possible.
 
lindetrain said:
Not really sure I saw anything last night that warrants Utah being favored on the road here. They were wrong side of their game, USC was right side of theirs, and this is already a pretty big adjustment from what we'd have seen a few weeks back. Best hope for Utah is that USC threw everything they had at ND and just quits now.
Click to expand...

respectfully disagree here, both teams won by DD...albeit, both wins were because of huge 4th quarters.

I believe USC has quit, the media said they were national title hopefulls, they won't even win the Pac 12....coach getting fired, and now losing again.
 
clowncar said:
Hey guys ... wondering if any of you are getting use out of me posting these wagers. I mean if you are paying attention and come here you can crush the numbers that are usually far enough off that you will get value. And showing the process of how to approach things is far more valuable than any handicapping analysis I could offer anyone. But I wonder if maybe I shouldn't have one post about openers and then a separate post about what is still good Monday?... In other words, are enough people getting value out of me posting these? The tracking is useless for me since I have a ton in play more than posted. And I don't update it after i add to it (when applicable)... for instance I had way more on wku at -30.5 last week than -27.5 but I don't want to deal with a thread here where i track to that detail where I am breaking down how much at each number.
Again, while I think showing the process does more for people than showing plays .... do you think you would get more benefit if I just posted monday what I would play at those? Or more benefit of posting my bm stuff sundays rather than the silly bol mirror stuff?

I want to be as helpful as possible (6-10 here last week cough cough) and want to know what would be most helpful to you all. I don't need to dick wave numbers that aren't even the bulk of most of my investments unless it is actually helping some people.
Click to expand...

I'm not as interested in who you are on, but definitely why
 
lindetrain said:
Not really sure I saw anything last night that warrants Utah being favored on the road here. They were wrong side of their game, USC was right side of theirs, and this is already a pretty big adjustment from what we'd have seen a few weeks back. Best hope for Utah is that USC threw everything they had at ND and just quits now.
Click to expand...

Just so I'm clear you think Utah was the wrong side in the game against ASU?
 
clowncar said:
Hey guys ... wondering if any of you are getting use out of me posting these wagers. I mean if you are paying attention and come here you can crush the numbers that are usually far enough off that you will get value. And showing the process of how to approach things is far more valuable than any handicapping analysis I could offer anyone. But I wonder if maybe I shouldn't have one post about openers and then a separate post about what is still good Monday?... In other words, are enough people getting value out of me posting these? The tracking is useless for me since I have a ton in play more than posted. And I don't update it after i add to it (when applicable)... for instance I had way more on wku at -30.5 last week than -27.5 but I don't want to deal with a thread here where i track to that detail where I am breaking down how much at each number.
Again, while I think showing the process does more for people than showing plays .... do you think you would get more benefit if I just posted monday what I would play at those? Or more benefit of posting my bm stuff sundays rather than the silly bol mirror stuff?

I want to be as helpful as possible (6-10 here last week cough cough) and want to know what would be most helpful to you all. I don't need to dick wave numbers that aren't even the bulk of most of my investments unless it is actually helping some people.
Click to expand...

Hard for me to chime in on this in current terms but I'll say in years past I loved watching the process more than the actual plays you had.

There are definitely people out there trying to learn the "art" of this and you're a great guy to watch and learn from. I know I learned an absolute from your threads and none of it had a thing to do with who you were actually betting on.
 
Always love comparing my thoughts on the early lines with others. Sometimes I don't know if I'm seeing things right.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I love the early posts to see which lines I frequently just lost out on, lol. For real though, anything you post is must read to me.
Click to expand...


yea I like this

I can't get the lines you get(or, I just won't allow myself I should say.......because I guess anyone who really wanted to could, right?)


I like to see where it goes and I like your reasons......every now and again I like the "still a play at" but I like the banter



Curious....what was the number on WKU that you saw?....feels like a real sleep walk for LSU and I woulda thought for sure to see you on it....kinda really surprised.
 
Great thread CC thanks for the work! I don't let you being on the other side of a early line deter my play but I usually am scared for my money at that point haha
 
clowncar said:
Ya I haven't seen an update yet .. not on donbest either. They didn't look so good yesterday imo....couple of big runs ..some decent playcalling first half i thought ... some nice screens .. but they were not consistent enough. Turnovers were their friend. Thought they played very hard though. Even Saban seemed heavily engaged emotionally.
Click to expand...

Agree that the offense didn't look very good. Was a really silly gameplan from aTm to start the game in the nickel, as Gary pointed out in the broadcast. Haven't rewatched it but my guess is they didn't really make the adjustment till at least the second quarter if not the second half. I remember a few years back Chavis ran that bear (5-2) against us with success during the regular season and then in the BCSCG it bit him cause we tweaked the gameplan. Coker isn't the passer nor decision maker AJ was so I think it was a good adjustment by him but silly to think they could slow Bama with that many DB's on the field. Bama OL is just not good this year and went to miserable when Kelly left game. I'm not enjoying the Kiffin offense this year - 12/44 on third down conversions the last 3 games (ironically,the defense the past three games has held opponents to 12/44), just not good. Fortunately, the defense is nails and this DL is absolutely filthy which has somehow masked how bad the OL and special teams are. Think it goes to just show the embarrassment of riches in talent that Bama trots out right now. As far as the spot goes, to me, that makes the play Seems like the past 5 years, if not more, Tenny comes right before the bye, Bama limps in to the game and just wants to get out with a W and get ready to compete for the west crown with LSU. I don't think Tenn is gonna be able to do much offensively but I think they have a decisive ST advantage which if the game last week and the OM game showed that can play a major role in how the game turns out.
 
I think it's a pretty good matchup for utah. Don't really see why asu was the correct side either.
 
Must be doing something right if we dusted off CrimsonK for 2nd time in a few weeks and JPicks as well...
 
Lean your way on the Bobcattians because of general Barfalo awfulness...Just a heads up though, star LB Quentin Poling was knocked out in the second quarter last week and the run defense went to shit in this absence.
He leads Ohio in fumbles forced, sacks and interceptions and second in tackles and tackles for loss. His replacements are guys dealing with injuries as well. I'm just not sure that Barfalo can exploit it, but the linebacking has me worried.
 
JPicks said:
Just so I'm clear you think Utah was the wrong side in the game against ASU?
Click to expand...

Not to clutter CC's thread with a right side/wrong side argument about a game that's in the past now, but I think you could argue both ways. No offensive TDs for ASU of course, but still were covering by two scores with the ball in the early 4th before gift wrapping the Utes three drives inside their 35. Also dropped an easy TD earlier in the 2H and a couple balls on the backdoor drive. Slight yardage edge for the Utes if you take out the Booker busted run at the end there. I felt like, if you got +6.5 or better, you probably deserved to get there.
 
Re: Kelly

Saban Monday presser:

"Kenyan Drake will practice today," Saban said. "Ryan Kelly is under concussion protocol. When he's normal, which he's very close, we'll allow him to resume activity. That's not gonna be today, unless something changes between now and practice. We feel like he'll be OK. It's not that bad right now. We feel like he'll be OK in a few days, but the medical staff has to make that decision."
Both players sustained their injuries in the first half of the Texas A&M game. Kelly did not return to the field after that.
 
Totals Adds:

Was working and missed true openers but I like these quite a bit

Charlotte/USM over 58
Indiana/Michigan State over 63
Tennessee/Alabama Under 56
Missouri/Vanderbilt over 35
Old Dominion/FIU under 53.5
 
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