time to post my week 3 card so far

He was asking which capper u would feel more comfortable tailing the next season, thus which one would indicate future success, not past. Pretty sure which one the bookie fears more for some reason..
 
RJ Bell ‏<s>@</s>RJinVegas <small class="time">10 Sep </small> How did USC loss affect spread vs. Boston College. USC opened -21.5 at Golden Nugget in June. Opened -17.5 Sunday. Now -14.


wouldn't mind having a BC +21.5 ticket
 
Play2win said:
RJ Bell ‏<S>@</S>RJinVegas <SMALL class=time>10 Sep</SMALL> How did USC loss affect spread vs. Boston College. USC opened -21.5 at Golden Nugget in June. Opened -17.5 Sunday. Now -14.


wouldn't mind having a BC +21.5 ticket
Click to expand...

If I lived in Vegas, I would check those GOY numbers weekly
 
kjohnson109 said:
He was asking which capper u would feel more comfortable tailing the next season, thus which one would indicate future success, not past. Pretty sure which one the bookie fears more for some reason..
Click to expand...
And what I am saying is this sample size is too small to conclude that B will begin applying his "line movement predicting" skill to games that will produce a higher winning percentage. Like I said earlier, there is an art to this (in my opinion) that goes beyond algorithms and standard deviations and key numbers (again my opinion).
 
TahoeLegend said:
Well, if one picker has a 2 point better percentage than the other picker there is no argument. The better percentage is the better percentage.

I thought he said both pickers were at 55%.

The best winning percentage is all that counts. He asked me the question and I said that if both percentages are the same the handicappers are equal. That will always be the case. Nothing else matters.
Click to expand...

Based on a sample size of 100? Never heard of variance?

If the market is efficient then beating the close all but guarantees long term success
 
Beating the closing line is important...good numbers are important

How can anyone argue this?

I bet alot on Saturdays for CFB, but I still cannot argue the above....how can you?
 
twinkie13 said:
Beating the closing line is important...good numbers are important

How can anyone argue this?

I bet alot on Saturdays for CFB, but I still cannot argue the above....how can you?
Click to expand...
Its a mute point,I dont understand what all the bs is about,of course getting the best number is number 1 objective.
This isnt fucking covers.
 
twinkie13 said:
Beating the closing line is important...good numbers are important

How can anyone argue this?

I bet alot on Saturdays for CFB, but I still cannot argue the above....how can you?
Click to expand...

Is it not possible for the closing line to be the best line? If you like Maryland this week, what did getting in early get you?
 
cudder said:
It obviously goes both ways. He's 4-4.5 points better on north Illinois than the current line
Click to expand...

I didn't even mean that toward the OP...I was just using a game that I know has had movement. Of course it goes both ways, that's been my point all along in terms of getting in early vs late... wouldn't this all depend on the side you liked and where you predicted it to end up? And being early isn't ipso facto better?

The only blanket statement that is true is, it's better to have the better number than the worse one. I think we all can agree there.
 
53percent said:
Is it not possible for the closing line to be the best line? If you like Maryland this week, what did getting in early get you?
Click to expand...

I do agree wit that though. I have had talks about this before. If I like team a +14 and it moves to +17 on game day I'm happy.
 
53percent said:
Is it not possible for the closing line to be the best line? If you like Maryland this week, what did getting in early get you?
Click to expand...

It gets you a kick in the nuts and holding a bad ticket. My point is that if you are a good handicapper ( or good market predictor even ) you will recognize errors. I am not sure why you are missing this part of the point.

1. If you know what you are doing, you will recognize the errors/bad lines
2. Bad lines/errors usually get corrected by market

Which of these two statements are you disagreeing with?
 
VK said:
It gets you a kick in the nuts and holding a bad ticket. My point is that if you are a good handicapper ( or good market predictor even ) you will recognize errors. I am not sure why you are missing this part of the point.

1. If you know what you are doing, you will recognize the errors/bad lines
2. Bad lines/errors usually get corrected by market

Which of these two statements are you disagreeing with?
Click to expand...
I'm disagreeing with the sentiment that the coming correction can't work in your favor, if you wait through the week.

It's like this, if you consistently get the best number available on the side you like, what difference does it make if that happens on Sunday morning or Friday night?
 
53percent said:
I'm disagreeing with the sentiment that the coming correction can't work in your favor, if you wait through the week.

It's like this, if you consistently get the best number available on the side you like, what difference does it make if that happens on Sunday morning or Friday night?
Click to expand...


If you can do that then nothing is wrong with it. But ,,,think about it .... if you are getting the best number late week you are fading the move. I do this too on occasion but fading the moves is probably a hard way to succeed. Also, the truly weak lines are gone by then for most games. Nothing is an absolute ,,, I know I might come off like a dick sometimes but every post I made in here was just trying to help people ( a lot already have of course but I think some of us forget new people arrive in our community all the time ) learn something. I realize you disagree with the premise and that's fine but hope we can discuss games and so on without the disagreement getting in the way. And truthfully I hope you come back to this thread in a few months and reread it. My handicapping may suck donkeyballs so dont read that ( not that I did write-ups this week to read anyway ) but I promise the other posts will help you become a better betting version of yourself than whatever you are now ( and you might be great now I don't know you ) I think you might be entrenched into defending your argument but with a little time and space you will see the underlying points here. I learn about new things and mistakes that I have been making all the time,,,,, it is how we grow. I have made every bad mistake you could want over the years whether it be bankroll management, not working hard enough, not networking enough etc etc etc ( and I am making mistakes now that I just haven't discovered yet ) ,,, We live and we learn and I know you don't think it now but you will come to see the point I made in this thread is valid.. I promise. You aren't even close to being alone in your thoughts about it either and I do respect you voicing them because if you didn't we don't have this conversation and I have a very strong feeling that this discussion helped people. I do feel the conversation has hit a bit of a dead end and that can lead to personality clashes so I think maybe it is time to talk some football instead.
 
Alan Tongue said:
both sides of the game. If the best line for one team is the close, the other teams...
Click to expand...
Well any time there is movement on a line, one side was better early and the other side is better late... All I'm saying is the timing of placing your bets should be to get the best number on the side you like (which may or may not be early).

The original statement that I've been responding to is that it is always better to be earlier on the "softer" lines. I don't know if this response even addresses what you're getting at or not....

Anyway, while it's been entertaining to say the least, I will now bow out of this thread .. As I'm now to the point of repeating things and nobody is changing anybody's mind and this thread can go back to focusing on the OPs week 3 selections.
 
I personally wouldn't mind a solid few days of talking with Alan.... I have a feeling he could teach me a lot.
 
Since we're on page 5 of your thread, and I scrolled through and didn't see much talk about week 3 plays, I was going to say GL or BOL or sweep the card or something like that ... can you re-post your plays again so that I can truthfully dole out compliments, por favor?

TY, LOL, BRB, AFK, ROFL, IMHO, ICYMI (and judging by the attendance, you have), BOL, GL, CWTTWDSAACG ...

[Can't wait to tailgate with Dwight Schrute at a Clemson game]
 
VK sorry if it was mentioned somewhere else in the thread, but what are the worst numbers you would take on Rice, Washington, Miss State, and N Illinois?
 
yea, back to football

Kyle, these games are out your way and I'm going by numbers rather than team knowledge.
Do you have any lean for or against Colorado, Cal Poly, and UNLV. Number is 7 1/2 in all 3 the last time I looked.
And do you still 'lean' Indiana but it remains a no play ?:searching:
 
Is that actually true that betting against the move hasn't been a good idea? This is something I've been wondering about a lot recently and don't know if anyone here has any data. If you take every college football line that has moved 4+ points from the open and take the new line now...definitely wonder what kind of % you can be expected to hit
 
DwightS, see Tulane last week vs USA

steam chasing can be profitable in my eyes.....don't always do it though
 
of course it can be profitable from time to time, but you can say that about most everything. curious what the results are for taking a line that is 4+ points off from where the oddsmakers opened it when betting blind
 
DwightS said:
of course it can be profitable from time to time, but you can say that about most everything. curious what the results are for taking a line that is 4+ points off from where the oddsmakers opened it when betting blind
Click to expand...

it can be profitable and it can be dangerous. A couple of seasons ago when Dr Bob would release his plays the price would go really off, and everybody would know it's him, so they would all follow. Sooner or later the line would move so much that a +EV line would become a -EV line. Then you would have other parties would would see the new line as +EV and push it back the other way.

Sometimes you have to judge the steam based on the limits. A market that moves on a gust of wind (eg CBB totals) is dangerous to follow. But lines in the major pro sports and major CFB conferences are better to follow.

It's what makes markets efficient
 
WKU????? Good question. The red head was great for 30 seconds as long as you keep a bat away from her. Under is good. See you boys tomorrow
 
VK said:
I went a little lower on totals and sort of shotgunned it for full disclosure. The linesmakers at cris are about twice as good as a normal this season so far. variances are smaller.
Click to expand...

It's the computer kids that were based at one point out of Vegas. They hooked up with the New Zealander and got his database and have spent the last few years tweaking it. Got hooked up with Mickey. Not sure how they ended up getting involved so heavily in the day-to-day operations, as they were just doing live earlier this year. I guess the main guy, the Penguin, figured out that KB was skimming in the live (letting someone bet a dead number) and so that endeared him even more to Mickey. Anything else I say is purely speculative, other than they've got a robot moving the lines off any sort of significant bet (with humans watching to decide where to move it to, back to the original number or up a half-point or more). No doubt it's different than what they used to do but it's a good thing for sharp folks because they take big bets and are unafraid to gamble.

GL this week sir

:shake:
 
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[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]current[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]difference[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]rdiff[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]127 Maryland -8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]133 wku -10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]133 wku -10 again[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]178 rice -2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]157 Washington -7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-10[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]155 Mississippi state +7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]153 northern Illinois -24[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-28.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]139 ucla +4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]185 w Michigan +34[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]28[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]105/106 Tulane latech over 57[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]59[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]107/108 troy ark st over 66.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]68[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]109/110 boise st/afa under 57.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]58[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-0.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]14.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]119/120 marshall ohio over 68.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]67.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]141/142 gt/duke over 56[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]58[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]15.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]151/152 tamu/bama und 62[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]61[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]177 178 Kansas rice over 58[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]59[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]17.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]189 190 orst Utah over 57[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]57.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]2half boise st/afa under 30.5 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Happy with my work this week Counted the wku line move twice. Twinkie I have no idea what is going on there. Feel unfortunate that I have an extra unit on that .. obviously not because I don't like it .. I LOVE it... but because I rarely go over a unit on something and I cannot add to it anymore. Assumed it would rise ... whoops.

a little less confident in Washington after watching boise state tonight

takeit , thanks for posting the halftime for me

MOT rice 6, wash 9.5, miss st 6 , niu 28 .... ( note self pr lg spd disc )

I have done bad fading moves Dwight but obviously a tiny sample. I haven't studied it so probably should not have said that because I am truly speculating. I stand by what I said though ...I don't think it will be easy to make a ton of hay fading moves.

liked cmich at the crazy numbers which I somehow did not take ,, would actually lean unlv now. csu awful in both games with deceiving finals in both games .. but tip of the cap to anyone who can lay a td or more with unlv.. can add BH to jumponboards "dead man walking thread ". Colorado game cancelled. didn't cap the poly game bull. How is that for not being helpful?
 
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