time to post my week 3 card so far

[twinkie13]

I agree on WKU...see 9.5 now

I saw USA 2nd half vs Tulane....not sure how they can keep up

 

[twinkie13]

VK is a master at beating the opening line, some just don;t have that gift..or different power numbers, rankings etc.

Lotta variables, but if I could predict the way the line goes I would obviously do it.

We all would bro LOL

Tulane case in point last week

 

[twinkie13]

please go into the wku/usa game thread VK

 

[booksbestfriend]

Like the MSU wager, as AU's best defender will be suspended 1st half for targeting. GL with the rest. Looks like you got good numbers.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

part of me wants to jump into the debate, but i'm hesitant...partly cuz it's VK's thread, and partly cuz i'm not sure there's an absolute right or wrong (as is the case in most things).

but i will say this...getting the best # (or price) is always an excellent factor in success. does it work out every time? of course not. but is it meaningful, in wagers or stocks or whatever the topic happens to be? abso-fucking-lutely.

by no means is it the be all, end all. it's simply giving you a better probability...one facet of many involved in a particular process.
just look at oregon this week. up to 28. i'm pissed i was late to the party at 23...when the early bird was able to catch a mother fucking 20. yeah, this is an extreme example...but gotdamned, that's golden. crossed more than a couple huge numbers, and could very well be the factor between a win/push/loss...even if we all cap it correctly, and some strange backdoor happens in the final minute.

and in terms of the 1/2 point...well, that's why so many smarter than myself have "bought the hook" in the past. we've all been there at some point, where it's come into play.
and outta VK's example...outta 100 games, i think it was...getting a 1/2 pt better each & every time (vs the opposite) is bound to yield better results, long term.

 

[RetroVK]

A few comments ...

1. I specifically gave the lesser handicapper a better winning percentage to make a point. Someone keeps saying they are identical... nope.. the guy who got the worst of it won more games.

2. here is estimated ats push rates for cfb ( credit ganchrow )

<tbody>
[TD="class: ats"]Spread[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]N[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]Freq.[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]248[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]0.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]657[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.22%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]801[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.87%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]989[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]6.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1,038[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.99%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1,108[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.08%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1,015[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.76%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]955[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]5.45%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]960[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.98%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]870[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.26%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]693[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]3.17%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]668[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.10%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]684[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.61%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]624[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]0.48%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]585[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]4.44%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]995[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.01%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]957[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]912[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]5.04%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]837[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.99%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]736[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.04%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]713[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.81%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]684[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]4.68%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]624[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.28%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]575[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.09%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]568[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]4.40%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]515[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.52%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]26[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]453[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.55%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]422[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.84%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]389[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]3.60%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]337[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.48%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]306[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.29%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]31[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]281[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]4.27%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]240[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.92%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]33[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]207[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]0.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]180[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]3.33%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]156[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.92%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]36[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]128[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.34%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]37[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]112[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.79%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]38[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]8.25%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]39[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.32%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]40[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]64[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]1.56%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]41[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]56[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]3.57%[/TD]

[TD="class: ats"]42[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: ats"]2.17%[/TD]

</tbody>

 

[twinkie13]

VK I thought I saw you have some thoughts regarding ECU and the run game....cant find. Was that you?

 

[RetroVK]

They can't run block anyone

 

[twinkie13]

have you peaked at the game this week?

Lean VT

 

[RetroVK]

105/106 Tulane latech over 57
107/108 troy ark st over 66.5
109/110 boise st/afa under 57.5
119/120 marshall ohio over 68.5
141/142 gt/duke over 56
151/152 tamu/bama und 62
177 178 Kansas rice over 58
189 190 orst Utah over 57

 

[RetroVK]

have you peaked at the game this week?

Lean VT

yup.. hard to not like the vt side imo .. reason I believe this is that I think they know they need to only stop one thing ( the pass ) and vt defensive staff ( hc is a joke ) is very apt at taking away things.

 

[RetroVK]

I went a little lower on totals and sort of shotgunned it for full disclosure. The linesmakers at cris are about twice as good as a normal this season so far. variances are smaller.

 

[lindetrain]

105/106 Tulane latech over 57
107/108 troy ark st over 66.5
109/110 boise st/afa under 57.5
119/120 marshall ohio over 68.5
141/142 gt/duke over 56
151/152 tamu/bama und 62
177 178 Kansas rice over 58
189 190 orst Utah over 57

On 141 over and 152 under with you, as well as Rice (although jealous I missed the 2).

As far as beating the close, all I'll say is guys who always take the worst of it are insta-approves, even if they've been winning for years. Guys who always take the best of it are the ones who get respect (sans scalpers), even if they're down.

 

[RetroVK]

Do you think those of us holding an early Texans -3 ticket are in better shape than those holding a well capped -5 ticket tonight?

 

[53percent]

And those who got a late SD +5 or +6 are feeling even better ..

 

[RetroVK]

And those who got a late SD +5 or +6 are feeling even better ..

Yes they should feel very happy. By getting a better number for themselves they won a bet they would have pushed... and also they should feel great about winning a badly handicapped football game,

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<thead>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: right"]HOU

[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]SD

[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing 1st downs
[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing 1st downs
[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]1st downs from Penalties
[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]6-13[/TD]
[TD]7-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Plays[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]449[/TD]
[TD]263[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Yards per play[/TD]
[TD]6.0[/TD]
[TD]5.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Drives[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]329[/TD]
[TD]183[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp - Att
[/TD]
[TD]34-45[/TD]
[TD]14-29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]7.3[/TD]
[TD]6.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Sacks - Yards Lost
[/TD]
[TD]2-17[/TD]
[TD]2-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]4.3[/TD]
[TD]4.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Red Zone (Made-Att)[/TD]
[TD]3-3[/TD]
[TD]4-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]7-73[/TD]
[TD]7-55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Defensive / Special Teams TDs[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]36:31[/TD]
[TD]23:29[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[RetroVK]

If the sd bettor had the "bad" number for his side .... he doesn't win there. Glad we agree on the point... I thought you were suggesting the opposite earlier in the thread.

 

[RetroVK]

Suppose some of that boxscore is time and score factors but whatever.

 

[53percent]

If the sd bettor had the "bad" number for his side .... he doesn't win there. Glad we agree on the point... I thought you were suggesting the opposite earlier in the thread.

I'm saying two things. Results matter more than the process and the better number isn't always the first/early one.

As I said with your example, whatever advantage is gained by beating a number only matters if the result is a winning bet. There's obviously a disconnect for guy #2 between the ability to get the best number and then actually apply it to the right games.

As for San Diego being "capped" poorly .. Well how many of those Houston yards came when they were down by 21 points? I mean there's more to handicapping a game than a stat sheet .. For instance Matt Schaub is good for a few big mistakes pretty regularly (so maybe someone factored in that first int but you think it's a fluke and poor handicapping) .. The Texans defense is overrated when facing above average QBs .. And there's a reason this team is an annual pick to compete for the SB and gets bounced in the first round repeatedly. They don't show up big in big games..

But let me guess, you were on Houston so by default anyone taking San Diego had to have capped it poorly?

 

[RetroVK]

I said there were probably time and score factors.. .. not interested in debating the Texans game. I admit when I am wrong about games daily... you can read years of my threads on this site where I grade my handicapping and I suspect most would say I do it harshly not with "vk colored glasses". I readily admit I am wrong about 44% of the time in this sport for instance.

I think I posted this video a few years ago and people said it helped them so I will post it again ...

http://<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gH-aCkLkpOI" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

 

[RetroVK]

I'm saying two things. Results matter more than the process and the better number isn't always the first/early one.

And I contend results are a product of process. We just disagree which is fine.

I never said the early number is always the better one. I am saying a good handicapper can find more mistakes earlier in the week.

 

[RetroVK]

I am saying ... say kate upton is a good handicapper.,,,, when lines come out she sees

rice -2 vs Kansas.

She has prepared and made her numbers and knows this line is no bueno.

She bets it.

Now let's say in an alternate universe that Kate was up late on a date with someone ( let's call him kyle ) Saturday night and she was so busy getting disappointed that she didn't finish her prep until Monday. She sees rice at -3.5. She knows this line is slightly no bueno so she bets it.

Now let's say that in yet another alternate universe she is curled up in the fetal position for five days after sleeping with her Saturday night date.... and she sees rice at -6 ...and thinks .. eh I wish I had got the -2 but I still like it.

the same handicapper will have worse results because she has worse numbers. The closer you get to kickoff, the closer you get to the true line.

 

[RetroVK]

In the same above example .... Kate sees a value on Saturday .. whether she was prepared on Sunday or not ( obviously she can delve into more minutia over the course of a few days to fine tune her lines to make them better than what she had on Sunday ) ...if she continues capping throughout the week she can still bet the value she sees on gameday. But if she was not prepared Sunday then she will miss out on betting on values that are no longer there.

 

[RetroVK]

Bull brings up a great point about reduced juice. Juice is a factor of course.

 

[RetroVK]

So a few votes for capper 1 and a few votes for capper 2. Have to admit I am shocked.

 

[B.A.R.]

So a few votes for capper 1 and a few votes for capper 2. Have to admit I am shocked.

Obviously the choice is Capper Dos...

Long-term..lets say 10 years...Capper 2 wins more than Capper 1...99% of the time.

Great thread as always.

 

[pressitup]

I was going to ask about the juice, but see it was brought up.
I wait , earlier in the year. Play earlier, as the season goes on.
That's probably backwards from how it should work as the lines tighten, through the season.
But the number that seems to be left out until the last minute is 18-21. The age of the participants carrying our cash to the goal line.
Was +28 good for Rice if JFF had played the entire game?
As good as Joeckel played. As bad as the defense was. The Ags began to distance themselves in the second half when bubba was playing QB.

Good luck this week

Press

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Obviously the choice is Capper Dos...

Long-term..lets say 10 years...Capper 2 wins more than Capper 1...99% of the time.

Great thread as always.

I think it comes into play more in the NFL than in college....the numbers mean more

 

[RetroVK]

yup // market is tighter and the numbers tend to be hovering around key numbers

 

[Gyno]

I saw Rice at that low number and did nothing about it.. I was scared there was an injury or something I didn't know about and then got distracted with goings on in NFL.. Lines came out early this week.

 

[RetroVK]

ya bm messing everything up ....

 

[J Galt]

Love it, this is where you're at your best. Looking forward to a bounce back

 

[53percent]

Obviously the choice is Capper Dos...

Long-term..lets say 10 years...Capper 2 wins more than Capper 1...99% of the time.

Great thread as always.

Well his example was just after 1 year .. And based on the data given capper 1 shows the ability to over come his lack of line prediction by picking good games . Capper 2 shows a waste of line predicting talent by choosing to apply it to games that lose anyway.

And what kind of data have you kept personally on all the various handicappers you have met for 10+ years to know with any certainty your claim is true? There's a 99% chance that over 10 years he'll be profitable? Anyone can make statements like this ..

Besides do any of us have 10 years to wait for this guy to get it together if we're trying to tail him?

 

[53percent]

Perhaps the biggest difference is I see handicapping as more art and less science ... Obviously there are plenty who will disagree and that's fine.

 

[Marsski]

I don't have access to true openers so its a moot point to me. It seems like usually I get a crack at a number I like as the spread moves during the week but I usually bet non-big games.

Good luck this week, Vk, I'm on W Ky and like Maryland and Marshall...

 

[Marsski]

Agree on over in Athens

 

[TahoeLegend]

Every post on this thread proves one thing.

There is zero advantage to picking early unless you correctly anticipate that a line will move against you, get down a quick bet, then the line does move as you anticipated, and the final margin falls WITHIN the move of the line. In that case you win a game (it does NOT mean you would have automatically lost if you had not made the bet when you did, because you would pass the game if the line moved to a point where you no longer consider it a winning bet).

Any database will tell you that happens in a few games every week and, if you are a good overall handicapper, a few games may be enough to make a difference in the long run.

Of course that assumes you will ALWAYS be on the right side of a line move, but any statistician--and simple logic--will tell you that you will only be correct on those early games at the same percentage as your overall season long winning percentage. So it is possible that a really good handicapper might win 60% of those early picks--if he is really good--and lose 40 percent. And you will not even be at 60% unless you are as good at predicting which way the line will move as you are at picking the game.

And when you bet becomes moot unless the final outcome falls precisely within the movement of the line. Perhaps 3% of all games during the course of a year, probably closer to 1%.

But if you can do it, and if your wins exceed your losses doing it during a year, then it is a successful handicapping tool, even though it only applies to a small number of games, and is worth doing.

But for all other games--the other 99%--there is zero advantage into betting early.

 

[RetroVK]

through two weeks and just a cursory look over .. no weekdays and didn't look hard .... but ...

[TABLE="width: 480"]
<colgroup><col width="64" style="width: 48pt;" span="10"> <tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]game[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]opener[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]close[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]results[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]missouri st iowa[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tot 45.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]42[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]28-14.[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]sdak kansas[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tot 44.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]45.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]21-14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sfa ttech[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tot 71[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]74 to 75[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]61-13[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]norf st rutgers[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sid38[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]40.4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]38-0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]mtsu unc[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sid21.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]19.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]40-20[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]wcar vt[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sid42[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]42[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]45-3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]note line hist[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tol mizz[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]side 14.4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]38-23[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]note line hist[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]unt ohio[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]side 6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3 to 3.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]27-21[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]c ark col[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]side 16.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]38-24[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]umass wisc[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]odu ecu[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]bama vt[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]cin pur[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]mar mia oh[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]eh 1 or 2 bks[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]murr st mizz[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]uga clem[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]uni iowa[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[RetroVK]

one would also expect that number to rise as the season progresses and lines tighten.

 

[Reds4]

Love that you get on stuff early and I definitely think consistently beating the market is a sign of a great capper who is bound to win in the long run...

Any lean toward Tulane this week? Seems like quite a few points against an LA tech team that is far from great.

 

[RetroVK]

no on Tulane. lean opposite but prefer the over. I don't think they stop latech much...

 

[pressitup]

Yep. I lost that MTSU game(17) and UNT(3).

 

[RetroVK]

tough times for Permian and midland .. football powerhouse days in west texas over?

 

[pressitup]

tough times for Permian and midland .. football powerhouse days in west texas over?

In-laws were here this week(thank God they left before the Bama game, otherwise would have to invoke the world's greatest system). They didn't have any sharp objects around. Word is............they're bad.

 

[RetroVK]

Bull .. my math could be flawed but I think this answers your question

assume 110 to win 100 , 105 to win 100
[TABLE="width: 480"]
<colgroup><col width="64" style="width: 48pt;" span="10"> <tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 192, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]100 games at 10 cents juice[/TD]
[TD="width: 128, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"].44 lose pct[/TD]
[TD="width: 192, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]100 games at 5 cents juice[/TD]
[TD="width: 128, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"].44 lose pct[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]inv[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]inv[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11000[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4840[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10500[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4620[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]savings[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]220 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 4"]or 2.2 units per 100 games played[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[RetroVK]

In-laws were here this week(thank God they left before the Bama game, otherwise would have to invoke the world's greatest system). They didn't have any sharp objects around. Word is............they're bad.

hehe. Might start catching some high school footy out here if I can talk lind bb lineguesser joep .. or ss or dicky when they are in town to go with. Always wanted to but don't want to be that creepy guy all by himself staring at high school aged cheerleaders like in American beauty ... need someone to go with.

 

[E.T.G.]

how concerned are you of UCLA playing at 12pm eastern?

 

[pressitup]

Wear shades
I'm already creepy, so there's that.

 

[tru]

through two weeks and just a cursory look over .. no weekdays and didn't look hard .... but ...

[TABLE="width: 480"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]game
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]opener
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]close
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]results
[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]missouri st iowa
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tot 45.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]42
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]28-14.
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]sdak kansas
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tot 44.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]45.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]21-14
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sfa ttech
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tot 71
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]74 to 75
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]61-13
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]norf st rutgers
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sid38
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]40.4
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]38-0
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]mtsu unc
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sid21.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]19.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]40-20
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]wcar vt
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]sid42
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]42
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]45-3
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]note line hist
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]tol mizz
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]side 14.4
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]14
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]38-23
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]note line hist
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]unt ohio
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]side 6
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3 to 3.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]27-21
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]c ark col
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]side 16.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.5
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]38-24
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]umass wisc
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]odu ecu
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]bama vt
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]cin pur
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]mar mia oh
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]eh 1 or 2 bks
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"]murr st mizz
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]uga clem
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]uni iowa
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

don't forget sam Houston state/tamu

 

[RetroVK]

thanks tru .. there might be more ... only so much time I can devote to trying to help others