time to post my week 3 card so far

[bull]

Bull .. my math could be flawed but I think this answers your question

assume 110 to win 100 , 105 to win 100
[TABLE="width: 480"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 192, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]100 games at 10 cents juice[/TD]
[TD="width: 128, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"].44 lose pct[/TD]
[TD="width: 192, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 3"]100 games at 5 cents juice[/TD]
[TD="width: 128, bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2"].44 lose pct[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]inv[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]inv[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11000[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4840[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10500[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4620[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]savings[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]220 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 4"]or 2.2 units per 100 games played[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Thanks much , Kyle. Very enlightening.

And I'll throw a new angle in here, not that it diminishes your efforts and strategy of betting early and getting the better of the early line. What if I tell you truthfully that games I play have little or no line movement ? I just have to be careful to wait sometimes on games around key numbers and try not to get the worst of it when I do bet ? Looking at your plays and what I perceive as latest line ( we are far from closing yet) WKU-SAU looks like it has moved a half point in your favor. So I have lost 1/2 point if I want WKU (not sure I do ) and gained 1/2 point if I want USA ( not sure I do). Granted
the line is on a key number, but the result has to come out exactly on 10 to make a difference in the bet. How often that happens i have no idea. But it is very clear that in even this hypothetical (?) case of a minute line move, the advantage is yours. I - and I suspect most of us - just dont have our acts together on Sunday afternoon with over 100 games to deal with for the following Saturday. I admire your ability to beat the line consistently by making early decisions. ( You must agree that you have to pick the right side to be successful) And I have to throw in here that I don't do totals.

Here's a final question for you. You have your own power ratings and set your own spreads, then look for discrepancies. Correct ?

Just suppose that this week you have FRESNO rated a 3 point favorite and the line comes out 9 1/2.
Does this mean you jump on Colorado ??
Cheers and GL

 

[RetroVK]

how concerned are you of UCLA playing at 12pm eastern?

A little bit actually. Concerned with a lot there. revenge, hfa, some of the defensive matchups, early start time, to name a few .... but ... I don't think there is a huge difference in the trenches or the skill positions .. I give a slight nod to ucla qb personally ... and a huge edge at head coach. Also sport an awesome backdoor offense vs a defense that can yield it... and last years game which I watched is not to be forgotten ... box score incoming .....

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks much , Kyle. Very enlightening.

And I'll throw a new angle in here, not that it diminishes your efforts and strategy of betting early and getting the better of the early line. What if I tell you truthfully that games I play have little or no line movement ? I just have to be careful to wait sometimes on games around key numbers and try not to get the worst of it when I do bet ? Looking at your plays and what I perceive as latest line ( we are far from closing yet) WKU-SAU looks like it has moved a half point in your favor. So I have lost 1/2 point if I want WKU (not sure I do ) and gained 1/2 point if I want USA ( not sure I do). Granted
the line is on a key number, but the result has to come out exactly on 10 to make a difference in the bet. How often that happens i have no idea. But it is very clear that in even this hypothetical (?) case of a minute line move, the advantage is yours. I - and I suspect most of us - just dont have our acts together on Sunday afternoon with over 100 games to deal with for the following Saturday. I admire your ability to beat the line consistently by making early decisions. ( You must agree that you have to pick the right side to be successful) And I have to throw in here that I don't do totals.

Here's a final question for you. You have your own power ratings and set your own spreads, then look for discrepancies. Correct ?

Just suppose that this week you have FRESNO rated a 3 point favorite and the line comes out 9 1/2.
Does this mean you jump on Colorado ??
Cheers and GL

I adjust for matchup and situation ( injuries suspensions too ) .. the pr is a start point not an end point for me. yes.. if I have fresno -3 and they have fresno -9.5 then I am hammering Colorado. And not always .. but more times than not, I have found value and the line moves towards my number because other handicappers will attack the same error until the books correct. Sometimes my line is bad... for instance I had Cincinnati a 10 point fave on the road at Illinois last week. I was wrong. However, it is my belief one has to make a good line or know a good line when they see one in order to do that.

And this is also what I mean about process. I am going to make my lines and bet off of variance ..... the closer we get to kickoff the more the available lines resemble my own. In other words, I have capped the same games, basically the same way ( weather issues pop up, coaching firings, suspensions, arrests, injuries, new information I hadn't considered etc etc for sure ) ... my skill level has not changed from sunday to Saturday.... however, the lines I have available to shoot at have. To me this is betting smarter.

If I don't know what I am doing, then the lines would not move towards my numbers or at least logic would dictate that. Moreover, I find slightly greater success the greater the variance which also makes sense.

Of course sample size comes into play.

The time spent is no different either,, I will make a post showing this as well since it has been brought up before in the thread

 

[RetroVK]

This particular season I have way more time constraints than normal with things that are worth a lot more money than cfb investing and so I have not been in my normal groove as far as preparation all year but the idea is this:

Get 1 week ahead and you don't have to spend more time handicapping than anyone capping the current week once you have. All you have to invest as far as time is making the adjustments based of Saturday events between sat night and sunday afternoon ( they came out early sunday with smaller limits last week but generally it has always been sunday afternoon/evening)

As mentioned before .. you still have to look over a few things, learn new information and might even be forced to bail on rare occasions because of midweek news ... I spend time midweek tracking games that are close to plays for me for minutia and line moves to see if they become plays ...but I am keeping the eye on the ball towards creating the lines for week 4. Someone else is spending the exact same amount of time capping.. they are just doing it game week. the key is getting a week ahead and you only have to do this once.

I am less prepared this year than any year since I first started posting here and it makes me a dumber cfb bettor for it.. because this is not easy to make money in and I cant afford to give away anything. but like most of us, I have other money making obligations that are worth more $ per hour spent and so my prep suffers. But that suffering is still gonna happen a week ahead of most people. There are a ton of people who can handicap a lot better than me but they are hurting themselves with their approach. I cannot be convinced that a quality handicapper will not get better lines for himself earlier in the week before other quality handicappers attack it and books correct it. That is not to say that handicapper A who bets early is a better handicapper than handicapper B who bets at close. It IS to say that handicappers A and B ( assuming he is a good handicapper ) will win more money betting into weak lines than he will into less weak lines and if he is a good handicapper he will know the weak lines. Again, he can still bet any value he sees on Saturday ... but he can no longer bet the values that were there earlier in the week or at least not at the same positive EV as he could have

 

[RetroVK]

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<thead>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
NEB[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
UCLA[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]1-11[/TD]
[TD]9-20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]439[/TD]
[TD]653[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]309[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]17-31[/TD]
[TD]22-38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]5.8[/TD]
[TD]8.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]260[/TD]
[TD]344[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]7.2[/TD]
[TD]6.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]7-60[/TD]
[TD]11-126[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]22:20[/TD]
[TD]37:4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Play2win]

Love me some VK, would say no homo but prolly a lil. BOL and glad youre posting :cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

I would go as far as to say that if you are making your own lines .. compare those lines to what happens from open to close. If most numbers head towards your number you are on the right track .. if most numbers move away from your numbers then you have a lot of work to do.

 

[Play2win]

:confused2:


just read thru this thread and must admit, reading comprehension has never been a strength...but people are trying to say that a capper that is well prepared enough to beat the close is a negative...maybe I drank too much, smoked too much...but i'm confused? DO YOU VK!!!

 

[geopackiv]

how concerned are you of UCLA playing at 12pm eastern?

They are only 2 hours ahead of PST, so the internal clock would be 9am. Im a bit worried about that.

typo on my part

I'm a fuckin moronuking:

 

[twinkie13]

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]NEB[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]UCLA[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]1-11[/TD]
[TD]9-20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]439[/TD]
[TD]653[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]309[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]17-31[/TD]
[TD]22-38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]5.8[/TD]
[TD]8.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]260[/TD]
[TD]344[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]7.2[/TD]
[TD]6.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]7-60[/TD]
[TD]11-126[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]22:20[/TD]
[TD]37:4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

where do you get these? formatted like this

 

[RetroVK]

just copied and pasted from espn, twinks. that is how it shows up here when you do

 

[E.T.G.]

where do you get these? formatted like this

http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=322520026

 

[TahoeLegend]

I like your UCLA pick, VK, one of my highest rated picks.

I'm leaning toward Maryland, but I usually never pull the trigger giving points on the road.

 

[twinkie13]

just copied and pasted from espn, twinks. that is how it shows up here when you do

looks cleaner here than espn lol

Ive seen em on espn....like this look better

 

[RetroVK]

Auburn Under 7 -155 2-0 and the chalk in week 3 .. w Carolina and fau still on the schedule. Margin of error decreased
Illinois under 4.5 -175 2-0 this one hurt not just because illini beat bearcats but because they look much improved
Indiana under 6.5 -125 1-1 loss to navy goes a long ways here. small fave to bgsu... a loss here and golden
Maryland over 6 -125 2-0 but expected. UConn game sort of a big deal for this one. a lot of teams on schedule > expected
navy over 5.5 -170 1-0 huge dd dog win.
northwestern under 7 -125 2-0. missed on cal opportunity week 1
California under 4.5 even 1-1 and they are better than I thought. brutally tough schedule
ohio over 6.5 -290 1-1 and in big trouble. need a healthy version. fortunate to escape unt
pitt under 6.5 -120 0-1 but fsu loss expected. unm up next where they are 3 td faves
ball state over 7 -145 2-0 and their schedule looks easier than before the season started
utep over 3.5 -180 0-1 could not stop the option of unm. that one hurts. to win will mean November effort. trouble

 

[RetroVK]

I like your UCLA pick, VK, one of my highest rated picks.

I'm leaning toward Maryland, but I usually never pull the trigger giving points on the road.

I had ncsu in a similar spot at UConn last year so I have my concerns ... line moved against me that week too. trusting my eyes a bit having watched the terps some ... could be trouble

 

[RetroVK]

they just lined up and blitzed glennon every play as I recall and it was super windy

 

[53percent]

I would go as far as to say that if you are making your own lines .. compare those lines to what happens from open to close. If most numbers head towards your number you are on the right track .. if most numbers move away from your numbers then you have a lot of work to do.

Here's another difference between us... If my line is way off, I would stay away or even consider the other side .. I always assume people know more than I do and if my line is 10 points off the open I'm doing more research into why...

 

[Lareux]

They are only 2 hours ahead of PST, so the internal clock would be 7am. Im a bit worried about that.

Maybe I'm missing something, and forgive me if I am.....but, wouldn't the internal clock be 9am? If the game is kicking off at 11am local time in Nebraska, and they are 2 hours ahead of PST, I think it should be 9am as opposed to 7am. Or am I missing something?

 

[geopackiv]

Maybe I'm missing something, and forgive me if I am.....but, wouldn't the internal clock be 9am? If the game is kicking off at 11am local time in Nebraska, and they are 2 hours ahead of PST, I think it should be 9am as opposed to 7am. Or am I missing something?

Sorry I have fat fingers....9am lol

 

[Alan Tongue]

I agree you have to have your bets prepared before the weekend. One of the keys to handicapping is to have firm positions and not bet and chase money game by game.

I have observed your picks--at least the ones you posted publicly--over the last few years and you are one of the better public handicappers--the best on totals--I just don't see how you evaluate your own handicapping, then explore the next week's games in just a few hours after the last game. I'm not challenging your methods, I just like to know how other handicapper approach the craft.

What do you mean when you say "process is more important than handicapping."

As far as early betting goes, I owned a sports book in Reno for 7 years and watched the Sunday night bets closely to see if there was any advantage to be gained. There was not. The winning percentage on Sunday night picks were exactly the same as the rest of the week.

For the last two years I drove or flew down to Vegas most weekends so I could see firsthand the first lines and the guys who bet them and determine if there was any advantage to getting down early and do a little research for a book I'm writing. I wasn't on the inside, but bettors all wanted to talk about what they saw and what they were betting. They didn't get any better results than than the standard sports books returns.

Truth is, most of the were scrambling to make a living and pay the rent. Most of the were the guys you see hustling to sell picks the rest of the week.

You were looking at it wrong

 

[Alan Tongue]

In answer to your question, VK, I view both handicappers as precisely the same.

You obviously believe one is better, but your own example proves that is incorrect.

if either handicapper had an advantage one winning percentage would be better than the other one, but they are the same. Therefore the two systems are equal.

There is a distinction between the two, but it is meaningless to the bottom line. Neither is able to use the difference to win more games than the other one.

Therefore it is a distinction without a difference.

With this answer I very much doubt you owned a casino for 7 years. Or it may explain why you used to own a casino

 

[Marsski]

I'm warming up to UCLA as well...agree 100 percent about coaching edge. Tragedy angle helps too...

 

[gsro]

goodluck VK

 

[GWarner27]

So I'm buying the hook on 38 everytime = what I learned from this thread

 

[RetroVK]

lol at that push rate... just shows you the fluctuation that can happen in analyzing small samples

 

[GWarner27]

Every post on this thread proves one thing.

There is zero advantage to picking early unless you correctly anticipate that a line will move against you, get down a quick bet, then the line does move as you anticipated, and the final margin falls WITHIN the move of the line. In that case you win a game (it does NOT mean you would have automatically lost if you had not made the bet when you did, because you would pass the game if the line moved to a point where you no longer consider it a winning bet).

Any database will tell you that happens in a few games every week and, if you are a good overall handicapper, a few games may be enough to make a difference in the long run.

Of course that assumes you will ALWAYS be on the right side of a line move, but any statistician--and simple logic--will tell you that you will only be correct on those early games at the same percentage as your overall season long winning percentage. So it is possible that a really good handicapper might win 60% of those early picks--if he is really good--and lose 40 percent. And you will not even be at 60% unless you are as good at predicting which way the line will move as you are at picking the game.

And when you bet becomes moot unless the final outcome falls precisely within the movement of the line. Perhaps 3% of all games during the course of a year, probably closer to 1%.

But if you can do it, and if your wins exceed your losses doing it during a year, then it is a successful handicapping tool, even though it only applies to a small number of games, and is worth doing.

But for all other games--the other 99%--there is zero advantage into betting early.

you're right, it won't matter very often. However, on the games where it does a +1u is a huge difference from a -1.1 and I employ the open for plays that I'm comfortable with at that time.

If they move against me, at least I got in at a place where I was satisfied, but if they move with me it's huge because ill either have value or even better have a play where id normally be sitting out. For a selective player without a ton of volume, this is huge for me in the sports I feel I can do it in (MLB & NCAAB currently)

 

[TahoeLegend]

Alan, if you believe that when two handicappers have the identical win percentage that one of them was better than the other you don't understand grade school math.

What do you do when two teams push? Demand that the book declare one of them the winner based on which team bus got to the stadium first?

 

[RetroVK]

terps just dropped below 7 ..... smelling a Tony special in Storrs.

 

[53percent]

terps just dropped below 7 ..... smelling a Tony special in Storrs.

I just don't understand what I'm missing.....Maryland has looked legit (vs garbage yes, but they've beat FIU and ODU about as well as any top 20-40 FBS would). Plus, I would think their coach wants to show out in front of his old stomping grounds....

 

[tru]

Alan, if you believe that when two handicappers have the identical win percentage that one of them was better than the other you don't understand grade school math.

What do you do when two teams push? Demand that the book declare one of them the winner based on the color of the uniform?

Haha u sound like a child not someone who said they owned a sports book in Reno.

 

[Wilks]

Alan, if you believe that when two handicappers have the identical win percentage that one of them was better than the other you don't understand grade school math.

Just to clarify this for you Tahoe...

57/100 = 57% (Capper #1)
55/100 = 55% (Capper #2)

57% is NOT the same as 55%

I learned that in grade school math

and Capper #2 IS better

 

[TahoeLegend]

Well, tru, then you should be able to post a hole in the logic instead of posting gibberish.

 

[TahoeLegend]

I don't know where you got 57%, Wilks.

The hypothetical that VK posted said both handicappers had a 55% winning rate. That means they were precisely the same.

 

[bloodhound]

ytd 17-21


127 Maryland -8
133 wku -10
133 wku -10 again
178 rice -2
157 Washington -7
155 Mississippi state +7
153 northern Illinois -24
139 ucla +4
185 w Michigan +34
105/106 Tulane latech over 57
107/108 troy ark st over 66.5
109/110 boise st/afa under 57.5
119/120 marshall ohio over 68.5
141/142 gt/duke over 56
151/152 tamu/bama und 62
177 178 Kansas rice over 58
189 190 orst Utah over 57

Strong leans

Indiana -3

damn, I have to say this every wk. ur threads keep getting better and better pardner

Great thread VK
Good to see we agree on most All

BOL on them all....that is if u believe in luck. I still do

 

[Wilks]

I don't know where you got 57%, Wilks.

The hypothetical that VK posted said both handicappers had a 55% winning rate. That means they were precisely the same.

Read the hypothetical AGAIN

 

[tru]

Let me ask you as a group since we are having the discussion about line value...

Say you have two cappers posting at ctg. All they post is their plays and they post for a full season. All numbers available at time of each of their posts.

Capper 1 bets 100 games and wins 57 but loses to the close by an average of .5 pts per game.
Capper 2 bets 100 games and wins 55 but beats the close by an average of .5 pts per game.

If you were forced to tail one of them for the next season, which one would you tail?

Bump

 

[53percent]

Just to clarify this for you Tahoe...

57/100 = 57% (Capper #1)
55/100 = 55% (Capper #2)

57% is NOT the same as 55%

I learned that in grade school math

and Capper #2 IS better

This is like the AT&T commercials.....when it comes to winning more money, what's better, winning more or winning less? $970 vs $550 .. I guess the guy can hang his hat on being "better".. but "better" doesn't pay the bar tab.

 

[53percent]

I don't know where you got 57%, Wilks.

The hypothetical that VK posted said both handicappers had a 55% winning rate. That means they were precisely the same.

The hypothetical was

A wins 57/100 but loses to the closing number
B wins 55/100 but beats the closing number

 

[Alan Tongue]

Alan, if you believe that when two handicappers have the identical win percentage that one of them was better than the other you don't understand grade school math.

What do you do when two teams push? Demand that the book declare one of them the winner based on which team bus got to the stadium first?

My math skills are greater then your reading skills

 

[tru]

Handicapper a wont get cut off, capper b would get cut off before a ever will

 

[tru]

HandicappedLegend!

I'm sure ur dad would be proud. How many different names is this now here?

 

[TahoeLegend]

Well, VK went back and changed the hypothetical.

For the first two days he posted it he said that both handicappers had a 55% winning percentage. He changed it because he tried to prove a point and it dawned on him after reading my answer that the hypothetical he posted actually proved the exact opposite of what he was trying to prove.

Now that he has changed it, the 57% handicapper is better than the 55% handicapper. Better by two percentage points.

But the principle remains the same--the only thing that counts is the winning percentage. Whether you achieve it by betting one second after the line comes out or by betting at one minute to midnight on Thursday is immaterial.

 

[tru]

:rofl:

He didn't edit his fuckin post. This shit is a joke

 

[KJ]

Lol it was 57% when I read it within a minute of him posting. Man up and admit ur wrong

 

[tru]

Son of a legend

:rofl:

 

[KJ]

Nice hijack of VK's thread as well

 

[53percent]

Handicapper a wont get cut off, capper b would get cut off before a ever will

So B is so good he can't even use his skills to place bets any more....what good is that now? So, while A is busy making bets, having a grand ole time, enjoying himself, B is sitting to the side telling anyone who will listen that he's really good...and maybe they'll buy him a round?

 

[TahoeLegend]

Well, if one picker has a 2 point better percentage than the other picker there is no argument. The better percentage is the better percentage.

I thought he said both pickers were at 55%.

The best winning percentage is all that counts. He asked me the question and I said that if both percentages are the same the handicappers are equal. That will always be the case. Nothing else matters.

 

[xyzky]

Son of a legend

:rofl:

:shake: