time to post my week 3 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
ytd 17-21

Brutal day on Saturday for me personally. While the capping wasn't quite as bad as the results there were some major errors made... notably the Memphis total where I had a bit extra involved, buffalo, and the last nail in M Brown's coffin. I will grade out the games in post 2.
Onwards

127 Maryland -8 win
133 wku -10 loss
133 wku -10 again loss again
178 rice -2 win
157 Washington -7 win
155 Mississippi state +7 win
153 northern Illinois -24 loss
139 ucla +4 win
185 w Michigan +34 win
105/106 Tulane latech over 57 loss
107/108 troy ark st over 66.5 win
109/110 boise st/afa under 57.5 loss
119/120 marshall ohio over 68.5 loss
141/142 gt/duke over 56 loss
151/152 tamu/bama und 62 loss haha
177 178 Kansas rice over 58 loss
189 190 orst Utah over 57 win
2h afa/bsu und 30.5 win

9-8 ( 9-9 counting wku twice ),

Strong leans

Indiana -3
 
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I'm surprised you can do your handicapping so fast. It takes me several days to do mine and I can't even start until I do a complete evaluation on what I did right and wrong this week.

I am still going over Week 2 and evaluating my own mistakes or successes and am still collecting stats from yesterday as well as waiting for injury reports before I can do it precisely.

Just as an example, Texas had several key injuries last night, including the QB, and even the coaches don't know the extent of them yet.

How do you do your handicapping so fast?
 
Agree wit most Kyle. GL this week these BOL numbers or Vegas? Made my numbers but haven't looked at vegasinsider to see what came out in vegas
 
If I start not having my handicapping mostly complete by sunday AM, then I should quit. Process is far more important than the handicapping imo. If you are betting on Saturdays you are doomed to fail .. or if you can consistently win that way then you would become a GOD if you actually bet smarter from a process perspective ( prepared by sunday morning ). I beat the close with my personal tickets by over 30 points last week and still lost money.

Tru they are up at bm already with small limits ( 2k or so )
 
Of course having a Texas -4 ticket is meaningless when you handicap them to win at the line of scrimmage and they get overpowered like men vs school girls. Not saying that the handicapping is meaningless... I am a matchup capper so i believe in it but if you are actually about making money you are ready on sunday for next Saturdays cfb
 
I'm sayin how tha fuck should tcu be -3 at Texas tech? I thought that was laughable when I saw those goy lines
 
thanks for Utah State and Washington State, VK.
pure blind coattails on my part. Sorry you had bad week- I managed to pick the right ones off your list because I had no action on them.
re Sunday/Saturday - I beg to differ I make all my plays on Friday nite/Saturday.
It doesn't seem to keep me from winning.
GL
 
I make my plays late too, unless something is just waaay off...but I know VK tries to beat the number, and he often does..I'm not good at that.

GL VK
 
VK said:
If I start not having my handicapping mostly complete by sunday AM, then I should quit. Process is far more important than the handicapping imo. If you are betting on Saturdays you are doomed to fail .. or if you can consistently win that way then you would become a GOD if you actually bet smarter from a process perspective ( prepared by sunday morning ). I beat the close with my personal tickets by over 30 points last week and still lost money.

Tru they are up at bm already with small limits ( 2k or so )
Click to expand...

:) thanks Kyle

:shake:
 
bull said:
thanks for Utah State and Washington State, VK.
pure blind coattails on my part. Sorry you had bad week- I managed to pick the right ones off your list because I had no action on them.
re Sunday/Saturday - I beg to differ I make all my plays on Friday nite/Saturday.
It doesn't seem to keep me from winning.
GL
Click to expand...

I am not saying it is impossible. I am saying if you are able to win betting late week that you should be able to win more early week against softer lines. While I am not quite the advocate of the market as I was a few years ago ( a lot of manipulation can actually occur and you have lines moving off singular opinions which makes it somewhat untrue to think of it as a true massive market ), it is undeniable that assuming you largely come to the same conclusions with having your basic lines ready friday night and adjust them for injury/info from saturday that you will have better lines than you get on Saturday. That is to say ... if you like Maine -5 against portland state on Saturday then if you had prepared ahead and gotten them at -3 on Sunday you would be better for it. If the lines are consistently moving against you and you are winning then you are an anamoly. This is at least my belief.. whether right or wrong.
 
I agree you have to have your bets prepared before the weekend. One of the keys to handicapping is to have firm positions and not bet and chase money game by game.

I have observed your picks--at least the ones you posted publicly--over the last few years and you are one of the better public handicappers--the best on totals--I just don't see how you evaluate your own handicapping, then explore the next week's games in just a few hours after the last game. I'm not challenging your methods, I just like to know how other handicapper approach the craft.

What do you mean when you say "process is more important than handicapping."

As far as early betting goes, I owned a sports book in Reno for 7 years and watched the Sunday night bets closely to see if there was any advantage to be gained. There was not. The winning percentage on Sunday night picks were exactly the same as the rest of the week.

For the last two years I drove or flew down to Vegas most weekends so I could see firsthand the first lines and the guys who bet them and determine if there was any advantage to getting down early and do a little research for a book I'm writing. I wasn't on the inside, but bettors all wanted to talk about what they saw and what they were betting. They didn't get any better results than than the standard sports books returns.

Truth is, most of the were scrambling to make a living and pay the rent. Most of the were the guys you see hustling to sell picks the rest of the week.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm surprised you can do your handicapping so fast. It takes me several days to do mine and I can't even start until I do a complete evaluation on what I did right and wrong this week.

I am still going over Week 2 and evaluating my own mistakes or successes and am still collecting stats from yesterday as well as waiting for injury reports before I can do it precisely.

Just as an example, Texas had several key injuries last night, including the QB, and even the coaches don't know the extent of them yet.

How do you do your handicapping so fast?
Click to expand...

Wow!!!! Why does it take you so long?
 
TahoeLegend said:
I agree you have to have your bets prepared before the weekend. One of the keys to handicapping is to have firm positions and not bet and chase money game by game.

I have observed your picks--at least the ones you posted publicly--over the last few years and you are one of the better public handicappers--the best on totals--I just don't see how you evaluate your own handicapping, then explore the next week's games in just a few hours after the last game. I'm not challenging your methods, I just like to know how other handicapper approach the craft.

What do you mean when you say "process is more important than handicapping."

As far as early betting goes, I owned a sports book in Reno for 7 years and watched the Sunday night bets closely to see if there was any advantage to be gained. There was not. The winning percentage on Sunday night picks were exactly the same as the rest of the week.

For the last two years I drove or flew down to Vegas most weekends so I could see firsthand the first lines and the guys who bet them and determine if there was any advantage to getting down early and do a little research for a book I'm writing. I wasn't on the inside, but bettors all wanted to talk about what they saw and what they were betting. They didn't get any better results than than the standard sports books returns.

Truth is, most of the were scrambling to make a living and pay the rent. Most of the were the guys you see hustling to sell picks the rest of the week.
Click to expand...

Be first, be right, or cheat. Three is impossible, so you're either 1 or 2. In my opinion you're limiting your options to win by waiting. Beating the closing line is half the battle.
 
I only bet games where all the percentages are on my side. There are a lot of them that can kill you if you ignore them and it takes me a while to check them all.

And there is no hurry. Betting early gives no advantage unless you think the line is going to go against you. All it does is tie up your money for several days.

Guys who bet early do not win at a higher percentage. Ask your bookie or sports book and they will confirm that fact.

Having your handicapping done early does indicate that you are organized and the organized bettor performs better over time than the disorganized guy.

But as long as you are prepared before the weekend and then keep your discipline while the games are going on you will do fine.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I only bet games where all the percentages are on my side. There are a lot of them that can kill you if you ignore them and it takes me a while to check them all.

And there is no hurry. Betting early gives no advantage unless you think the line is going to go against you. All it does is tie up your money for several days.

Guys who bet early do not win at a higher percentage. Ask your bookie or sports book and they will confirm that fact.

Having your handicapping done early does indicate that you are organized and the organized bettor performs better over time than the disorganized guy.

But as long as you are prepared before the weekend and then keep your discipline while the games are going on you will do fine.
Click to expand...

Dude...
 
Obviously if he's betting early he thinks the lines will move against him. And they usually do.
 
There is more than one way to skin a cat. Other people can win in their own way. Betting early for me yields better results for me because where my lines vary from open or early lines they tend to move toward my number over the course of the week/year. I am gonna be right and wrong ( about what the true line should be ) at the same percentage no matter what when i create my own lines but if i can get a half pt per game or even a quarter of a point per game by being prepared then somewhere along the way i am going to win a game i would have bet at a lesser variance that i would have lost or pushed otherwise. I am a small time bettor but the big time bettors, who have an edge or think they do, actually manipulate lines to bet bigger into the better number on the opposite side.

My point is not that someone who bets early wins at a higher percentage than someone else who bets late. That is comparing one bettor to another which is very difficult. My point is that a specific capper will win at a higher percentage for himself if he is consistently getting better numbers and that is undeniable and if he has an edge he should be getting better numbers early than will be available late. I think that is fairly undebatable as well if we assumed a true market ( which i am a little less convinced of now than a few short years ago ).

That is to say ... people who have texas -4 at byu are going to win that bet a higher percentage of time than people who have texas at -7 at byu. Many games such a difference won't matter but the guy with -7 will never win a bet that the guy with -4 does not and the reverse is not true.
 
So for me to not be prepared by Sunday is just me being lazy in my opinion. Sometimes a family event, personal illness ( watching texas play football ), another money making endeavor/job that makes more money for the time or other things can cause me to be slow but I definitely try to give myself the best chance to win more than my capping ability allows on its own or lose less than my capping ability allows on its own.
 
157 Washington -7
155 Mississippi state +7

good job on UW, VK.
i missed 20 on Oregon (for 23), and 7 on UW (got 9.5). feel worse about the ducks though. hopefully neither matters much in the end though.
also a nice get on rice. i was so focused on the Pac-12 that i didn't even see that # (got them at 3.5 pts).

anyhow, seeing a lot the same.
copied Messy St over too, cuz i expect to be on that side. do you think the line will move much?
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
157 Washington -7
155 Mississippi state +7

good job on UW, VK.
i missed 20 on Oregon (for 23), and 7 on UW (got 9.5). feel worse about the ducks though. hopefully neither matters much in the end though.
also a nice get on rice. i was so focused on the Pac-12 that i didn't even see that # (got them at 3.5 pts).

anyhow, seeing a lot the same.
copied Messy St over too, cuz i expect to be on that side. do you think the line will move much?
Click to expand...

I suspect so. Confident it does not close over the 7 anyway. A limit to how far downward that one can go though. But we are talking key numbers.
 
kyle gimme some thoughts on ucla. I am either low on ucla or too high on Nebraska.
 
I beat the close with my personal tickets by over 30 points last week and still lost money.

Kyle, the 30 points is not the important number. What matters is how many bets that you won would have been losers or pushes if you bet late in the week and missed your 'good' number. Then from that, don't you subtract the extra juice you pay for betting early? After doing these calculations you will be able to determine just how valuable betting on Sunday night is to you.
 
Well if you have a regular spot you get -05 juice or something that is another variable for sure. It is normal juice betting on Sunday .. there is no tax... that isn't to say you can't find reduced juice somewhere else though later in the week. What juice are you laying on average?
 
VK said:
Well if you have a regular spot you get -05 juice or something that is another variable for sure. It is normal juice betting on Sunday .. there is no tax... that isn't to say you can't find reduced juice somewhere else though later in the week. What juice are you laying on average?
Click to expand...

.05 is pretty standard. I get a fair number of -103s, and then there are the 107s 108s and even 110s occasionally.
This year i have in a few instances bot a half point, a first believe it or not.
Haven't figured out how I stand, but I do know that I turned one loser into a push (Troy v UAB ) so I'm ahead of the game on buying. But I'm off the subject. Sorry.
I have a great deal of respect for guys who can prepare themselves for the following Saturday by the previous Sunday.
Kudos to you. Just not my MO.
bull:cheers:
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm surprised you can do your handicapping so fast. It takes me several days to do mine and I can't even start until I do a complete evaluation on what I did right and wrong this week.

I am still going over Week 2 and evaluating my own mistakes or successes and am still collecting stats from yesterday as well as waiting for injury reports before I can do it precisely.

Just as an example, Texas had several key injuries last night, including the QB, and even the coaches don't know the extent of them yet.

How do you do your handicapping so fast?
Click to expand...

you sound like u have been here before....
 
bull said:
.05 is pretty standard. I get a fair number of -103s, and then there are the 107s 108s and even 110s occasionally.
This year i have in a few instances bot a half point, a first believe it or not.
Haven't figured out how I stand, but I do know that I turned one loser into a push (Troy v UAB ) so I'm ahead of the game on buying. But I'm off the subject. Sorry.
I have a great deal of respect for guys who can prepare themselves for the following Saturday by the previous Sunday.
Kudos to you. Just not my MO.
bull:cheers:
Click to expand...

Like I said... there is more than one way to skin a cat. Always enjoy your input, Bull.
 
I like UCLA.. Will wait to see where the line goes.. I don't think it will go up higher than 6.
 
Let me ask you as a group since we are having the discussion about line value...

Say you have two cappers posting at ctg. All they post is their plays and they post for a full season. All numbers available at time of each of their posts.

Capper 1 bets 100 games and wins 57 but loses to the close by an average of .5 pts per game.
Capper 2 bets 100 games and wins 55 but beats the close by an average of .5 pts per game.

If you were forced to tail one of them for the next season, which one would you tail?
 
i was big in the camp that beating the market does not mean automatic winning results a few years ago when we started this discussion, but I don't think I considered the dummying factor that you described above. My heart tends to stay separated from my stomach when I got a better number in my pocket than what I see on the screen minutes before gametime, but sadly even getting over key numbers does not make you a winner either. The nice thing is we know your humility does not come close to your talent in this game...

(also nice to lose the week before my first trip back to Austin since 2011)
 
VK said:
Let me ask you as a group since we are having the discussion about line value...

Say you have two cappers posting at ctg. All they post is their plays and they post for a full season. All numbers available at time of each of their posts.

Capper 1 bets 100 games and wins 57 but loses to the close by an average of .5 pts per game.
Capper 2 bets 100 games and wins 55 but beats the close by an average of .5 pts per game.

If you were forced to tail one of them for the next season, which one would you tail?
Click to expand...


If you would of said 51 i still would of pick capper 2
 
VK is a master at beating the opening line, some just don;t have that gift..or different power numbers, rankings etc.

Lotta variables, but if I could predict the way the line goes I would obviously do it.
 
HUNT said:
VK is a master at beating the opening line, some just don;t have that gift..or different power numbers, rankings etc.

Lotta variables, but if I could predict the way the line goes I would obviously do it.
Click to expand...

exactly, not a guarantee but it's obviously a nice thing to have in your favor...

good luck this week Mike Price
 
In answer to your question, VK, I view both handicappers as precisely the same.

You obviously believe one is better, but your own example proves that is incorrect.

if either handicapper had an advantage one winning percentage would be better than the other one, but they are the same. Therefore the two systems are equal.

There is a distinction between the two, but it is meaningless to the bottom line. Neither is able to use the difference to win more games than the other one.

Therefore it is a distinction without a difference.
 
w/you on a few. GL, and would love to hear your thoughts on that hoosier game when you can.

and i'm takin the dude who can beat the number. and we're going straight to sizzler.
 
VK said:
Let me ask you as a group since we are having the discussion about line value...

Say you have two cappers posting at ctg. All they post is their plays and they post for a full season. All numbers available at time of each of their posts.

Capper 1 bets 100 games and wins 57 but loses to the close by an average of .5 pts per game.
Capper 2 bets 100 games and wins 55 but beats the close by an average of .5 pts per game.

If you were forced to tail one of them for the next season, which one would you tail?
Click to expand...
Well, if the 2nd one has an advantage of beating the number he's not very good at picking the right games to apply it to.
 
Correct, 53. What anyone does against the closing line is an exercise in vanity, not handicapping.

If you disagree, go ask the book to pay the bet you just lost because you came so close to the close.

Handicapping is an intellectual exercise. The only thing that matters is the bottom line. In the example VK proffered the two handicappers are precisely the same.

As long as the winning percentage remains the same you can change those pointless comparisons to the close to ANY percentage and the handicappers will always remain precisely equal.
 
Kyle is correct no matter if I'm bettin early or late I still wanna get tha best number I can. If I think it will move closer to my numbers I hit it early, if its a heavy public fade I wait till game day but have hit early when I think tha dog would drop. It's not rocket science, continue to get tha best numbers u can, it will matter from a push that's now a win or a lose that's now a push or a game most lost bettin late but it's a winner from an early bet.
 
TahoeLegend said:
In answer to your question, VK, I view both handicappers as precisely the same.

You obviously believe one is better, but your own example proves that is incorrect.

if either handicapper had an advantage one winning percentage would be better than the other one, but they are the same. Therefore the two systems are equal.

There is a distinction between the two, but it is meaningless to the bottom line. Neither is able to use the difference to win more games than the other one.

Therefore it is a distinction without a difference.
Click to expand...

Of course a winner is better than a loser, but when you're using VK's example and looking for future performance I don't know how you can take the guy who lost on the moves all season long. Sounds like extremely good fortune to me
 
books will boot out a guy who beats a closing line regularly than a guy who just wins.
 
Well, you guys obviously didn't read VK's hypothetical.

If the winning percentage is the same--and since it was his hypothetical he must have intended for the winning percentages to be identical--then anything else is extraneous and meaningless.

You guys are in love with a theory that has nothing to do with handicapping.

If it influences winning, then it is important and means something. If it does not then it is just a way for guys who lose to try and make themselves feel better about their loss.

If there was any validity otherwise someone would have posted the proof by now, but they won't because there is none. If you know of any proof please post it and I will adopt the idea immediately.

And if you know of a single example of books "booting out a guy who beats a closing line regularly" and letting guys who win stay just post the guy's name and the sportsbook.

Vague urban legends are just that.
 
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