time to post my week 1 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Seems it is that time of year again.

I have one request for those who want to participate in my thread
1. Don't be a dick in my thread.

A couple of quick notes:
1. I have a lower average unit this year due to some baseball losses.
2. I do not have the large number of outs as in prior years. I will mostly be using Las Vegas books and I will mostly be going to those books in person (rather than App). I do not recommend others do it this way if they are trying to win. This will cost me some money this season and it will cause me to be unable to obtain certain numbers. Hopefully, I find a few off ones in las vegas as well to mitigate my poor process this season.

I added in a (+) to signify games I like a lot and (-) to the ones that barely made the cut.

Locked In:

#147 Army +17 (no blurb will be offered) WINNER Grade A+ 1-0
#165 Missouri +11.5 (+) Grade A 2-0
#168 New Mexico State +8 N/A 2-1
#173 Texas State +21 (+) Grade C 3-1
#175 Southern Miss +7 Grade A- 4-1
#187 San Jose State +5.5 F- 4-2
#208 Wyoming 10.5 (+) Winner Grade A 5-2
#142 Vanderbilt -3 LOSER Grade D+ 5-3
#137/#138 Tulane/Wake Forest Under 43 Winner Grade A+ 6-3
#153/#154 Georgia Tech/Boston College Over 44 (-) loser Grade F 6-4
#139/#140 Rice/WKU Under 63 Winner Grade C 7-4
#165/#166 Missouri/WVU Under 50.5 (+) Winner Grade B+ 8-4
#171 South Alabama +32 (blurb post #83) Winner A 9-4
#171/#172 South Alabama/Miss State Under 57 Winner Grade A 10-4
#173/#174 Texas State/Ohio Under 58 loser Grade C 10-5
#183 Clemson -7 Loser Grade C 10-6
#183/#184 Clemson/Auburn over 59 (-) Loser Grade F 10-7
#191/#192 Rutgers/Washington Under 55 Loser Grade B 10-8
#195/#19 UNC/UGA over 54.5 (blurb post #81) Winner D+ 11-8
#197/#198 Houston/Oklahoma Under 68 (+) winner Grade B 12-8
#201/#202 USC/Alabama Under 54 (+) Loser Grade B- 12-9
#203 Boise State -20 Winner Grade A 13-9
#205/#206 BYU/Arizona Under 62.5 Winner Grade A 14-9
#137 Tulane 17.5 Winner Grade A+ 15-9
#291/#292 California/Hawaii Under 67 Loser, Grade F+ 15-10
NDSU/Charleston Southern under 49 Winner Grade A 15-11
Ohio 2h -9.5 -11 loser grade C- 15-12
nw -4 loser grade C- 15-13
TAMU/UCLA Loser Grade B- 15-14
Texas 4 winner B+Winner 16-14
Texas/nd over 54 winner A+ 17-14
fsu/ole miss under 60


Strong leans:
NMSU/UTEP over 61
north Texas 11.5 eliminated for now, lost number
Kent st 20.5 eliminated
South Alabama 32 Added 08/20/16
Rutgers 26 moved from tmo to strong lean 08/15. Eliminated on 08/20/16. I prefer the under and don't want two units on Rutgers defense with their preferred pace.

Talk me off leans:
Umass/Florida Under 48.5 eliminated 08/26/16
Ole Miss/FSU Under 57
LSU/Wisconsin Under 44.5
CSU/Colorado Under 54 eliminated 08/26/16
Hawaii 21 (Cal) eliminated 08/26/16
Indiana -8 eliminated 08/20/16. Might use in a teaser
Tulane +17.5 Added 08/22/16
Georgia State -3 eliminated
Alabama -10/10.5 eliminated
Rutgers moved to strong lean 08/15

 
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Good luck. I like the mizzou bet and will likely be joining you on that. Only thing that sucks is Brady was booted from team and he was one of our top pass rushers last year. Just like the idea of getting an SEC team with athletes and catching those points vs a big 12 team. Concerns would be can mizzou keep up offensively. I expect Lock to progress a lot this year. Guy is too talented not to progress a lot this year. Good thing is he's very athletic and he'll need it with the brutal offensive line we are going to put on the field.
 
I also like that Vanderbilt bet. This is a game of two programs right now going in opposite directions.
 
Tulane is interesting....a QB is gonna be thrown to the wolves one way or the other. We know Tulane is gonna run this year, and they have a pretty decent stable there. WRs are thin thin thin.....the OL is questionable, but the defense should be pretty good.

Obv Fritz is a big big plus as HC


I can't pretend to know as much about WF, but it would be a stay away game until I see what Tulane has at QB and if they can even throw the ball
 
Alan, Wise, Silky, Press. thanks.

Here is my thinking on Tulane....

Wake Forest will be better on offense this year but they averaged 333 yards or so per game last year. They cleared 400 yards twice vs fbs opponents, 419 at Cuse and 450 at home against Duke in the finale. They scored greater than 21 vs fbs competition last year all of once. 24 against Indiana and they had 10 pts after three quarters there. Meanwhile, I like some of the parts returning for Tulane on defense. They only gave up 2146 rushing yards last year. That made them the 74th ranked defense against the run last year. The reason I used the word "only" was because they faced the 2nd, 8th, 12th, and 13th ranked rushing offenses last year. So they are likely to be middle of the pack or better against the run this year statistically given what they have coming back on that side of the ball. In addition, the team was a poor time of possession team and a poor third down conversion team. Both of those numbers should improve for Tulane, especially the time of possession given the system they are running. Which is my other point .... you are not just asking Wake to score more than they normally do, you are asking them to do it against a running clock. My concern is the way Wake defended Army option principles last year.

Seems to me, you likely only need two TD drives from an option team (slightly different style than the academies) to be sitting fairly pretty. I would think Tulane is less turnover prone too which has hurt them in some games against the ACC in the past.

How many drives will there actually be in this game? Obviously there are no numbers to shoot at yet but this should be one of the lower totaled games on the board.
 
sirwinzalot said:
Good luck. I like the mizzou bet and will likely be joining you on that. Only thing that sucks is Brady was booted from team and he was one of our top pass rushers last year. Just like the idea of getting an SEC team with athletes and catching those points vs a big 12 team. Concerns would be can mizzou keep up offensively. I expect Lock to progress a lot this year. Guy is too talented not to progress a lot this year. Good thing is he's very athletic and he'll need it with the brutal offensive line we are going to put on the field.
Click to expand...

Well, we know they cannot be much worse on offense than a year ago.

Lets talk the attrition in the trenches. Brantley is gone due to academic ineligibility. Rumor is he got addicted to Percocet that he was taking after he had the car accident making recovery difficult and academic recovery very difficult. Don't know it as a fact but that is the rumor. Brady will be missed. But if there is one place that Missouri can afford a little attrition (until now) it is on the defensive line I would think. Still have good players there. I do have some concern about system changes to a defense that isn't broken. FWIW they lost the 300 pound left guard as well. They don't have depth there at all.

I thought Missouri had a lot going on last year. Coach gets lymphoma, the player "strike" and whole atmosphere on that campus just made it tough to concentrate on football.

There is nowhere to go but up for the offense and I suppose nowhere to go but down for the defense.

Liked the talent displayed in the spring game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjABcf8OT7Q
 
I might add Florida State to my TMO lean list. Just going to be a huge difference week 1 between team readiness in my opinion.
 
clowncar said:
I might add Florida State to my TMO lean list. Just going to be a huge difference week 1 between team readiness in my opinion.
Click to expand...
Would LOVE to hear your thoughts on this gm.
I think this maybe be the best game of opening weekend AND it's the last gm of the week.
I am looking fwd to watching Francois play
 
clowncar said:
Alan, Wise, Silky, Press. thanks.

Here is my thinking on Tulane....

Wake Forest will be better on offense this year but they averaged 333 yards or so per game last year. They cleared 400 yards twice vs fbs opponents, 419 at Cuse and 450 at home against Duke in the finale. They scored greater than 21 vs fbs competition last year all of once. 24 against Indiana and they had 10 pts after three quarters there. Meanwhile, I like some of the parts returning for Tulane on defense. They only gave up 2146 rushing yards last year. That made them the 74th ranked defense against the run last year. The reason I used the word "only" was because they faced the 2nd, 8th, 12th, and 13th ranked rushing offenses last year. So they are likely to be middle of the pack or better against the run this year statistically given what they have coming back on that side of the ball. In addition, the team was a poor time of possession team and a poor third down conversion team. Both of those numbers should improve for Tulane, especially the time of possession given the system they are running. Which is my other point .... you are not just asking Wake to score more than they normally do, you are asking them to do it against a running clock. My concern is the way Wake defended Army option principles last year.

Seems to me, you likely only need two TD drives from an option team (slightly different style than the academies) to be sitting fairly pretty. I would think Tulane is less turnover prone too which has hurt them in some games against the ACC in the past.

How many drives will there actually be in this game? Obviously there are no numbers to shoot at yet but this should be one of the lower totaled games on the board.
Click to expand...

the other issue when talking Tulane is the awful shit that happens on ST(outside the one Brasil kid in the NFL now)......not sure if you cap that or can even, but blocked punts, shitty punts, you name it......hopefully Fritz cleans it up, but not sure if soon enough.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Would LOVE to hear your thoughts on this gm.
I think this maybe be the best game of opening weekend AND it's the last gm of the week.
I am looking fwd to watching Francois play
Click to expand...

I will try to get some coherent thoughts together on the game. By PR it doesn't really qualify for me so that is a problem right off the bat. Obviously love the ole miss QB but I think they just lose too much to replace in week one in a game like this. Also, Ole Miss in the bowl was my largest wager of the year last season which thankfully cashed going away. Part of that play, even if small, was a unique motivation for the bowl. I think FSU has had a sour taste in their mouths from Houston beating. Anyway, I will try and put some thoughts together about the match ups at some point.
 
xyz, teeed, Tru .. thanks guys. Hope you make some time for me to talk a few games this year tru.


Twinks -- I won't soon forget the special teams they played against Duke a few years ago ... my lord.
 
cubsker said:
Usm thoughts would be appreciated
Click to expand...

The quick answer is that i like the talent at receiver replacing the studs and a lot of other pieces return to a team that was pretty good a year ago and that i wouldn't blink an eye playing at 7 against Kentucky. PR makes it a bit lower too. Actually think there is a pretty good chance they win the game outright.
 
not trying to be a dick, but you forgot to post Texas ML

...and if it's not too personal why the loss of outs/no app use/need to go to the casinos? Soon you will be known as Kyle Walters
 
Hey CC, I don't cap so FYI. I monitor this site and the other one and over the years have learned who the consistent winners are. My standard unit is 1% of bankroll and I'll go as high as 3%. Like you this year I lose some units each year because I tail and don't get the opening numbers.

Just some comments FWIW. I have tailed you (and some others) on NMS and Vandy. Wyoming seems likely. Only one i see where you might line up against some other really good cappers is Kent St. I have locked in PSU -20. Most seem Kent will have trouble scoring and Franklin's new up temp offense w/o Hackenberg will lead to better offense this year and a cover in this game. One thing I've learned tailing good cappers is they are often against each other so this is no surprise. But of your list, that game is the only major one I see. again FWIW. GL
 
I think everyone, including those betting Kent State, knows that Kent will have trouble scoring on Penn State. A bet on Kent is a bet that Penn State will have trouble scoring on Kent as well.
 
GWarner27 said:
not trying to be a dick, but you forgot to post Texas ML

...and if it's not too personal why the loss of outs/no app use/need to go to the casinos? Soon you will be known as Kyle Walters
Click to expand...

I want to obey the law, is the short answer. Offshore books treated me fairly for the most part other than 5dimes, my credit agents treated me extremely fairly and I have no issue doing business with them and appreciate the services they provided, but I just think it is a small sacrifice to make to obey the current law. Make no mistake, it has nothing to do with winning too much. In fact, one of my outs I had to pay repeatedly over the years.
 
Kyle, I don't like the Mizzou play. Things change from year to year, but I can't get past the fact that WVU was 0-7 ATS last year when facing teams that averaged at least 7.0 yards per pass against their opponents (excluding WVU) and 5-1 ATS versus teams averaging less than 7.0 yards per pass (again excluding WVU). Against teams that averaged under 6.5 yards per pass, WVU covered every game by 20+ points. Missouri, at 5.3 yards per pass was worse in that category than any team WVU faced last year. Of course, Mizzou is likely to have an excellent defense that should make them a reliable dog, and the pattern may not continue this year, but there's no way I would back a bad passing team against WVU.
 
clowncar said:
I want to obey the law, is the short answer. Offshore books treated me fairly for the most part other than 5dimes, my credit agents treated me extremely fairly and I have no issue doing business with them and appreciate the services they provided, but I just think it is a small sacrifice to make to obey the current law. Make no mistake, it has nothing to do with winning too much. In fact, one of my outs I had to pay repeatedly over the years.
Click to expand...

And what law, specifically, are you wishing to obey? As far as I know, placing bets outside the US is still legal.
 
lvmike32 said:
Hey CC, I don't cap so FYI. I monitor this site and the other one and over the years have learned who the consistent winners are. My standard unit is 1% of bankroll and I'll go as high as 3%. Like you this year I lose some units each year because I tail and don't get the opening numbers.

Just some comments FWIW. I have tailed you (and some others) on NMS and Vandy. Wyoming seems likely. Only one i see where you might line up against some other really good cappers is Kent St. I have locked in PSU -20. Most seem Kent will have trouble scoring and Franklin's new up temp offense w/o Hackenberg will lead to better offense this year and a cover in this game. One thing I've learned tailing good cappers is they are often against each other so this is no surprise. But of your list, that game is the only major one I see. again FWIW. GL
Click to expand...

Well, a lot of good cappers have UTEP at a smaller number. I think NMSU has the best player on the field in that game and I think this is the year we could see a few wins for NMSU as a squad. I will probably have a decently detailed write up on that game on this site by kickoff. Anyway, big difference between laying a fg with utep and taking over a td with nmsu.

I have to lean KentSt on PR alone. I think uptempo offense could potentially hide some of the offensive line woes that have plagued penn state the last few years. I am not sure week 1 is the week they are running it to perfection but the more plays in the game the less likely kent st is to cover. I tend to agree with most of the other people that kent st will struggle to score much but I do wonder how much they would actually have to score in order to cover a number like 20.5, 21, or 21.5 which is where I think the line is headed. Also, I think there is addition by subtraction with Hackenberg. He was a guy with all the tools but a bad football player. J Russell comes to mind except J Russell played in a better offense with better WR's.

To me the problem is clearly that Kent St cannot score on the road and it makes it extremely difficult to back them. 32 pts is what they scored COMBINED in their road starts last year and this is better than any of those defenses. The got shut out in three of their final five games last year. Also, if you are looking at pace teams, they played one really fast paced team in BG and got rolled on defense. So that could potentially even be a weakness.

It will be tough to lock in kent st in this game though I am high on them for some MAC value going forward. Still, I want to look at it some more because the matchups is the problem where the pr is not.
 
M.W. said:
And what law, specifically, are you wishing to obey? As far as I know, placing bets outside the US is still legal.
Click to expand...

It is legal, minus a few particular States or at least not explicitly illegal. But virtually every other function surrounding online gambling is potentially illegal. Processors, advertisers, fascillitators, booking of etc. etc.
 
M.W. said:
Kyle, I don't like the Mizzou play. Things change from year to year, but I can't get past the fact that WVU was 0-7 ATS last year when facing teams that averaged at least 7.0 yards per pass against their opponents (excluding WVU) and 5-1 ATS versus teams averaging less than 7.0 yards per pass (again excluding WVU). Against teams that averaged under 6.5 yards per pass, WVU covered every game by 20+ points. Missouri, at 5.3 yards per pass was worse in that category than any team WVU faced last year. Of course, Mizzou is likely to have an excellent defense that should make them a reliable dog, and the pattern may not continue this year, but there's no way I would back a bad passing team against WVU.
Click to expand...

I get that we are talking about ATS numbers so it is factored into the spread already, making your point a pretty valid one in my estimation but ga southern was an option team without their starting QB and arguably best player, Terps 91st ranked defense, kansas 128th ranked defense, iowa st 108th ranked defense, kansas state 106th ranked defense, texas 107th ranked defense.
Just not sure it is an apples to apples comparison in light of that.
 
I also think it is fair to assume Missouri will be a little better on offense this year.
 
clowncar said:
I get that we are talking about ATS numbers so it is factored into the spread already, making your point a pretty valid one in my estimation but ga southern was an option team without their starting QB and arguably best player, Terps 91st ranked defense, kansas 128th ranked defense, iowa st 108th ranked defense, kansas state 106th ranked defense, texas 107th ranked defense.
Just not sure it is an apples to apples comparison in light of that.
Click to expand...

Sure, that's factored into the spread, but we both understand that scoring on Mizzou (or being scored on by Mizzou) is an infrequent occurrence, and the Mizzou O/D split compresses the point spread as well. Mizzou +10.5 is like the typical team getting 17 or 18, so it's understandably tempting to see Mizzou as a double-digit dog. I'm not sure I can lay double-digits against Mizzou, but I won't be playing the Tigers.
 
clowncar said:
It will be tough to lock in kent st in this game though I am high on them for some MAC value going forward. Still, I want to look at it some more because the matchups is the problem where the pr is not.
Click to expand...

The PR is not a problem for me if I compensate for the fact that both teams have lopsided O/D splits in favor of the defense. Low-scoring games make points valuable (to state the obvious), but I think KSU's problem is not an inability to score on the road; it's an inability to score with Bollas playing QB. Five starts by Reardon produced 104 points (20.8 per game); seven starts by Bollas produced 53 points (7.6 per game). Reardon faced a couple horrendous teams, but he also faced Illinois, Minnesota, and Marshall, though I haven't done the work to see how the power ratings for the two QBs' opponents compare. Of course, we may see another QB under center.
 
Pretty confident Reardon is not in the current competition. Bollas, Agner and Mitchell and the coach said he is likely going to name the starter after the first scrimmage. I will be surprised if it isn't Bollas because I can't see him usurping him after one scrimmage which makes me think he has already made up his mind.
 
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Yikes Missour lost 162 career starts on the offensive line including all 5 starters from LY. Lock had a completion percentage of 49% with 4.1 ypa last year. If I had a Mizzou lean I think I would just wait and bet the under
 
Scrute said:
Yikes Missour lost 162 career starts on the offensive line including all 5 starters from LY. Lock had a completion percentage of 49% with 4.1 ypa last year. If I had a Mizzou lean I think I would just wait and bet the under
Click to expand...

They were 120th in rushing, and gave up 30 sacks on just 373 pass attempts. Just how much worse do you think it could get. Howell is going to be a really good player too according to other people (I have no idea on a personal level).
 
clowncar said:
Pretty confident Reardon is not in the current competition. Bollas, Agner and Mitchell and the coach said he is likely going to name the starter after the first scrimmage. I will be surprised if it isn't Bollas because I can't see him usurping him after one scrimmage which makes me think he has already made up his mind.
Click to expand...

Reardon was moved to WR I believe, so he's out of the running. I heard it would likely be Agner, but you make a good point about such a short timeline.
 
Glad to see you on several of these. I've finally gotten around to incorporating my own power ratings and was wondering if you could give some thoughts on Vandy, Wyoming, and Indiana.

My numbers are quite a bit different than the current line and I'm wondering if you rate them in the same ballpark or playing the matchup more than the number? I have..

Vanderbilt -9
Wyoming +4
Indiana -13.5
 
I have Vandy -8.5 and I think it's fairly simple though by no means does it guarantee a cover of 3. They project to have very similar offenses but Vandy projects to have a significantly better defense.
 
M.O.T said:
Glad to see you on several of these. I've finally gotten around to incorporating my own power ratings and was wondering if you could give some thoughts on Vandy, Wyoming, and Indiana.

My numbers are quite a bit different than the current line and I'm wondering if you rate them in the same ballpark or playing the matchup more than the number? I have..

Vanderbilt -9
Wyoming +4
Indiana -13.5
Click to expand...


Pr was -2 NIU but I adjusted up to -4.5. Still a huge variance and played it even though Wyoming is hard to trust and niu isn't.
Pr was -6.5 for vandy which I adjusted down to -4.5. It went through some key numbers and I like the situational aspect of week 1 vandy vs week 1 scary in this spot.
pr indiana -12. Again I adjusted it to -11. I should probably play this. My problem at this point is that when openers came out, I identified it as a probable horrible line but since I hadn't done the work to be sure, I laid off and now it is 5 or so points higher. Just hard to hop in after blowing that opportunity. Another capper I respect mentioned trusting Indiana's defense on the road when basically needing hem to win by dd and I tend to agree with that to a certain extent as well.
 
Scrute said:
I have Vandy -8.5 and I think it's fairly simple though by no means does it guarantee a cover of 3. They project to have very similar offenses but Vandy projects to have a significantly better defense.
Click to expand...

Agreed and with more continuity for a week 1 game.
 
Also, it is very likely your pr for either niu or wyoming (or both) is better than mine currently is. I don't think market moves the game away from my line (movement so far) if my pr number is truly accurate. Any pr that makes niu over a td favorite at wyoming would be bad though, imo.
 
Thank you both for the comments. Those three are all teams I made a decent upward adjustment to after establishing a baseline, so I think that's where the NIU/Wyoming variance comes from my line to current market.

I plan to lock in some picks this week and Texas and A&M are two more teams I adjusted that appear to cause a noticeable variance. I should go dig up some of the "make the line" threads to see how my numbers compare.
 
Welcome to the world of pr.

Remember the one thing to make sure you do when you are beginning with your pr work is to note openers, and your pr each week. If the opening number moves towards your pr number by kickoff then you are generally doing it right. If the opening number moves away from your pr number by kickoff you are most likely not making good ratings. Obviously, there are exceptions both ways and exceptions on individual teams .... but in general your numbers should identify the "mistakes" and the line movement will tell you whether they are or not.
 
Since we are talking pr ....

It is also important to understand what teams you have confident pr in and what teams you are less confident in pr with. For instance, for me ..... Cuse is a low confidence pr because I am not sure how the talent there will translate to the new systems being implemented. Therefore, I may need a wider variance to get involved in cuse games than say Oklahoma games where I am very confident that my power rating is accurate.
 
clowncar said:
I might add Florida State to my TMO lean list. Just going to be a huge difference week 1 between team readiness in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Ole Miss is probably better at 2 positions: QB and WR. As an Ole Miss fan, I'm concerned about FSU being able to negate the QB and WR advantage with the match up of their DEs vs. Ole Miss' OTs. Ole Miss will either be starting a true frosh or a redshirt frosh at LT. At RT, Ole Miss is probably going with a sophomore who saw limited action last year. Assuming the OTs hold up well enough to give Kelly time, my FSU buddy tells me that the Noles' secondary, though young, is very talented. If Kelly has time, they better be. If not, it won't matter.

Ole Miss will also almost certainly be without a starter at SDE (F. Brown). If the defensive plan is to set the edges and force Cook back inside, which it better be, Brown's absence will make that more difficult. The roster is very thin at DE.
 
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