time to post my week 1 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Off another winning year even if it wasn't spectacular and another good bowl season. I don't think I have ever had a losing season posted on CTG and while that is hardly as impressive as my hotdog eating capping, I can hang my hat on it.

All week one plays will be graded in this window and each individual play or group of plays will also be in a window somewhere below that I will never edit. I will not have the time I normally do for write-ups this year, mainly because I am travelling a lot and I am going to avoid promising write-ups or thoughts because I feel guilty when I promise and never get to it which happened a few times last year..... ... but I plan on giving my reasoning on each play by kickoff whenever possible. I hope to educate and be educated by all who want to participate in my threads this season.

My plays window is broken down into three categories;" Locked in" which is a play that has been made, "Strong Leans" which are mainly plays that I have a strong opinion about but need either another little angle to push me over the top or a better line to push me over the top. This section will also include games I am playing for sure but I have a strong feeling market will be against me, totals that I like but have weather concerns etc etc ... the third and usually most important category over the years in my threads is the "talk me off leans" ,,,, these are plays I like but am leaning to not playing. A few years ago we used to get some really good conversations about these games in the thread. It is the part of the thread that actually helps me the most as often it is a play I like but involves a team (or two ) I don't feel confident I have a handle on and the feedback helps me a lot.

My main purpose to having the thread is to help ME make money. My secondary purpose is to help others make money and to give them tools so that they can make money in this sport going forward. This occasionally means tangents into different topics of gambling. I have made every mistake a person could throughout my gambling life. Any advice I give on the subject doesn't come from being on a high horse but from having lived through years of the good and bad that comes with the territory of the business/hobby. Obviously, with the small edge winning handicappers have, there is no guarantee that I will win this year. You are responsible for your own decisions. If you tail and I win ... you are the one to give credit to and if you tail and I lose, you are the one to blame.

That will probably be my biggest write up of the year.

Locked In:

#179 Arkansas +21.5 ( Grade B )
#145 byu -16 Grade A
#148 wku +7.5 Grade A+
#140 Boise State +10 Loser ( Grade B- )( +0.5 vs close )
#160 Virginia +21.5
#163 Troy Pick
#173 Marshall -23.5
#185 Louisiana Tech +38
#188 Purdue -10 -120
#201 UTEP +7.5
csu/cu under 64 Grade A
Temple/vandy Under 52.5 Winner ( Grade D ) ( +2 vs close )
Georgia Southern +22
Georgia Southern/NCState over 53.5
Clemson/Georgia under 57.5
Tulane/Tulsa under 47.5( loser F )
Boston College -15
Latech/Oklahoma over 51
South Carolina -10 Loser ( Grade F- ) ( -1 vs close )
PSU/UCF under 48.5
USC -21
fsu -17.5
BYU/UConn under 52 Grade D
CSU/CU under 30 1h Grade A
UTSA/Houston over 28 1h
 Arizona -13 1h Grade B-
WKU TT OVER 27.5 Grade A+
Arizona/UNLV over 60
byu -6.5 2h Grade F
byu/UConn 2h over 25.5 Grade D

10 pt teaser 3 team
Miami Florida +13.5
Washington -7
Utah State +14.5


Strong Leans:

Miami +3.5 ( The more I look at it, the more I like it ... not sure I can back it after bowl )
Boston College -15 added to plays
LSU -3.5 ( Sort of wanted the 3 and appears to be moving opposite way )


Talk Me Off Leans:

Georgia Southern +21.5 added to plays
Southern Miss +31 eliminated
North Texas +23.5 eliminated
Georgia -7 eliminated
 
Last edited:
Played Arkansas +21.5 , rotation # 179.

I will probably regret this on several levels ... 1. I am betting this prior to having my PR ready though it would be hard to imagine it won't be less by pr. ... 2. I am not sure if the line will grow or shrink and 3. I was too lazy to drive across town for a better number (22).
 
On it with you...quite a trend working against the national title game losers in their opener the following year
 
Glad to see this thread up, it not only means CFB is right around the corner, it means VK is going to be here giving us picks and analysis each week.

Oh, before I forget....change your god-damned name back to VK already, will you? :tiphat:
 
Ark will be close for most of the game especially early with Marshall out a few drives, its usually the last quarter that is scary when the up-tempo teams finally get their feet underneath them. Baylor, Oregon, Okla, etc, all the same. Have to play them even for 60 minutes, if you even have one bad quarter that is when they can separate. Oregon-UCLA last year is the ultimate example of this. UCLA plus 23, played even for 42.5 minutes, didn't cover.

Can't just play a straight math edge in spots like this, and I know you know all this clown, but I'm repeating it for myself to make sure I think its still true, and I do.

I don't know anyone who thinks LT should be getting 38 (now 37.5) points from Oklahoma. Opinions seem to range from 28.5 up to about 36.5 (I think 35.5 will be your close). But I also don't think any of those people that I've talked to will be on LT for the simple fact that they won't score much, and that the Sooners could score 35 in a given quarter. 49-10, 56-3, 63-6, 59-7. None of those could be seen as a surprising scoreline here.

Good luck this year my friend.
 
TheGarfather said:
Ark will be close for most of the game especially early with Marshall out a few drives, its usually the last quarter that is scary when the up-tempo teams finally get their feet underneath them. Baylor, Oregon, Okla, etc, all the same. Have to play them even for 60 minutes, if you even have one bad quarter that is when they can separate. Oregon-UCLA last year is the ultimate example of this. UCLA plus 23, played even for 42.5 minutes, didn't cover.

Can't just play a straight math edge in spots like this, and I know you know all this clown, but I'm repeating it for myself to make sure I think its still true, and I do.

I don't know anyone who thinks LT should be getting 38 (now 37.5) points from Oklahoma. Opinions seem to range from 28.5 up to about 36.5 (I think 35.5 will be your close). But I also don't think any of those people that I've talked to will be on LT for the simple fact that they won't score much, and that the Sooners could score 35 in a given quarter. 49-10, 56-3, 63-6, 59-7. None of those could be seen as a surprising scoreline here.

Good luck this year my friend.
Click to expand...


Well, it won't be a shock if Auburn blows their doors off and it won't be a shock if Arkansas hangs their heads if it goes bad early ( that is what they have done the last few years in games where the going gets rough ). But I think my major concern is the Auburn defensive line which looks pretty decent to me. If Arkansas cannot run the ball then big trouble ensues for the Razorbacks. The thing is .... Arkansas shot themselves in the foot a lot in the game last year. Auburn only outgained them by about 20 yards and that was with the Tigers connecting on an 88 yard TD pass. I think they were held to somewhere near a season low which makes me think that maybe Arkansas matches up decently ( though part of me thinks Auburn was mentally taking the week off ). Their offense was Mason that game and while we all know a lot of that is scheme, he was a special RB imo. In fact, I think I mentioned him as the standout to me in last years spring game ( No Marshall so I was somewhat deceived as the backups looked awful ). He gone. Razorbacks had 25 first downs or somewhere in that ballpark. The line for that game was 7.5 last year and it was a game in the second half of the season with Auburn rolling and Arkansas coming off a combined 104-7 defeat the previous few weeks. In other words, it wasn't a case of not valuing Auburn correctly. Flip the field and you are getting a TD more this year with Arkansas and I have to ask which team is more likely to have improved the most year over year in this case? Arkansas was one of the slower teams in cfb last year from a pace perspective and if they can just get first downs like last year while not shooting themselves in the foot, some of it was crazy calls from Bielema, then they should be competitive. You already know how I feel about Auburns season last year. They got better every week and were a decent top twenty team by year end ... and I am not comparing the December Auburn team to the September one ... but they caught an amazing number of breaks last season .. not to mention catching hail mary passes and missed FG's for game winning TD's.

I actually played this prior to knowing Marshall was missing a few drives ( insert dancing giraffe here ) .... but if Auburn struggles without Marshall and then Marshall shows any rust at all ..... we could see Arkansas with a lead after the first quarter and then it gets really tough to cover a number over three TD's ... though the coaches don't like each other so maybe Gus runs it up if he gets the chance.

I thought Arkansas closed the season ( beginning in that Auburn game ) pretty well.

Just cannot afford the early DD deficit in this one.

I know you all are going to call me crazy but I might end up with a quarter unit on the ML
 
Auburn only ran 55 plays against Arkansas last year in Fayetteville which I believe was a season-low for the high-flying Tigers. Bielema will be able to run the ball even more effectively this year with Collins and Williams, so certainly a strong case for taking the three TDs and change. Especially now that Marshall will likely sit out the entire first quarter for enjoying a little weed among friends.

Good luck,
Paul
 
I agree with all three of them. Don't know if that is a good thing or not.

You should have value on BYU & Ark by gametime. I'm less sure about this other one, seems to be a fair amount of support for the Falcons. I like that both teams are breaking in new coaches, that will usually favor a dog, especially a home dog.
 
Ya .. I admit to valuing BG less than most and I "like" the players filling voids on the WKU defense so not too concerned about them getting trucked. Offense .. if it doesn't lose too much continuity, was able to move the ball on just about any defense last year. Think they have a chance at the upset and certainly should be competitive in the game.

I am concerned with BYU road margins of victory but if they can't crush this crappy Connecticut team in transition then I just have BYU over rated and I at least learn something from the game.
 
#140 Boise State +10 ( haven't fully capped it but based on PR I played and will bail if it is no good after adjusting for situation/matchup )
 
Can I get ur thoughts on the total(52.5) with vandy/temple?
I was leaning over hard. Temple has a decent play making qb and even tho vandy will be down some it's still on sec offense vs. A below avg team.
 
I will give ya my thoughts on that total but it might be a bit before I post them.

Add #163 troy pick
 
Card starting to take shape. Agree on a few Kyle. U gonna be around tomorrow to talk some?
 
th
#201 +7.5
 
My pr has a lean to Georgia Southern. Unfortunately, I have little confidence in my Georgia Southern number and it is a harder year than normal to make a Wolfpack #. I threw it in my talk me off leans in hopes of getting feedback/indormation in here to help me going forward. If I get enough information pointing toward Georgia Southern I will pull the trigger... If the information is neutral or pro-ncsu then I will not play it. I am a little weak on the transitioning teams of the last two years to d1. I know Dwight and Tru have a good knowledge of those types of teams so hoping they will help me here. Think both follow the acc as well.

Currently the personnel don't fit the system change for Georgia Southern in my opinion ..Will miss McKinnon versatility, doubt they sneak up on ncsu after beating Florida to end last year. Game 1 so the rigors of a full "tough" schedule won't be in play yet. Run the ball a lot for a running clock which is good for dogs. I think the front seven for NCSU is a little stronger year over year but they weren't exactly run stoppers last season. They had a great coach in 2012 and suffered from losing him and having year 1 with a lesser coach. They should be in better shape heading into this year and 3-9 type seasons aren't the norm for ncstate so I would expect them to be a bit better as a squad. The talent level is there .... but the spread is awfully large. PR says Georgia Southern.

But the problem is that my PR is unit eval oriented ( which means player eval oriented to a lesser extent ) and I just don't have a good base of information to PR a team like Georgia Southern.
 
clowncar said:
Maybe I will call Horses and he can tell me why.
Click to expand...

I wont' speak for him, but I'm sure it has to do with the presumption that GaSo won't score more than 10, if at all. Combine that with the fact that Brissett is a Doeren style QB and will fit this offense much better than the turds last year. He ought to be the magic bullet that helps them score more than 22.8 ppg this year. Won't be the magic bullet to take down Florida St necessarily, but should at least get them moving the chains.

This matchup really has everything to do with a change in offense for GaSo. If they were still running the TO you expect this line to be smaller, fewer poss, and probably look at the dog, instead of the other way around.
 
I know Florida's qb production is largely a part of their horrible offensive scheme but I am wary of a guy who failed at Florida being considered a magic bullet at ncsu
 
Not ruling out playing Canes at 3.5 but if I see a 4 I am taking it. Will be a nice chase game for the weekend college bettor too so I think I will see it and I will remain patient.
 
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