time to post my week 1 card so far

TheGarfather said:
12.5 is the o/u on number of games in wk 1 that you won't have a bet on. Im leaning under.

Decided to just take SC at the market number instead of finding the 10 pt teaser I see.
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Won't have a play on the following games barring some big money moving a line into something ridiculous...


1. Wake Forest at ULM ( PR says ULM, pure revenge from acc to sunbelt says wake forest )
2. UNT at Texas ( lean to UNT but passing )
3. Rutgers at Washington State ( Difficult Cap )
4. UTSA at Houston ( small lean to the over in this game but passing )
5. Navy at Ohio State ( Difficult Cap )
6. App State ( a team slightly worse than Idaho ) at Michigan ( I don't play high lined games where pr matches line - interesting angles )
7. Cal at Northwestern ( Conflict of who I like on paper and what happened on the field last year. Hard to lay dd when the dog outplayed the favorite when they played last year and is improved year over year ).
8. FAU at Nebraska ( Was going to play Nebraska but injury bug hit and now have to lay off )
9. Rice at Notre Dame ( # right )
10. Ohio at Kent State ( One of the three or four games I am really interested in for learning purposes week 1. Number seems dead on ).
11. Washington at Hawaii ( Can't get a feel for the game )
12. FSU at Ok St ( Instinct says arse whooping but I ain't laying 17.5 in Stillwater .. place will be nuts )
13. Utah state at Tennessee ( leaned vols but number got away. just gonna cheer for chuckie and usu )
14. smu at Baylor ( lean smu and under .. but likely avoiding all Baylor games this year )


over will hit ..

remaining games ...

unlv at Arizona -- lean zona. but this might be rebels superbowl for the season.
Bama v wvu -- Lean Bama. QB ? Kiffin? But can't figure out how wvu gets first downs... eventually skill guys for bama get loose. And if bama oline is not good enough to handle wvu dl then it will be a long year in the sec. ..... maybe
fighting Tru's at Florida -- I like Florida but hard to lay a number like that with them before seeing a functioning offense. Should "happen" into points with the best defense in the nation though.
southern miss at miss state - sort of a decent lean to southern miss. but eliminated them as a play at current... if public, betting group or tout moves that line enough I might reconsider and take the golden losers.
lsu v Wisconsin -- strong leans to both the over and the lsu tigers
Miami at Louisville -- I like Miami here .. have a feeling ville gets slammed as a bet on Monday/Tuesday though. I will take 4 or better. last years game is hard to look past but the situation is very different.
 
hmm capped that out as if at Stillwater .... might very well change my opinion ....... I will shop today
 
Schrute said:
Hope it pushes for ya Kyle
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hehe ... I don't know why I trust them but I can't figure out how fresno st gets first downs and the bulldog defense is more like a Chihuahua ... they think they are a lot bigger than they are.
 
VK, I have a strong NC State lean but still haven't played this game. I really think Ga Southern's defense will be overmatched here. LY was a wash for NCS because Doeren didn't have his style of QB and this year he does. By all indications, Brissett has not only shown skill mastering the offense but has shown a strong leadership role thru the summer and fall. NCS also has a solid front on defense to deal with whatever running game Ga Southern decides to throw at them not to mention they have the entire fall camp to prepare unlike if this game was in the middle of the year. If Ga S is able to ball hog some and grind some clock then laying the points is a problem and I do fear that some (or I would have played this already). Really comes down to, for me, how many possessions NCS will get. I like their offense, in this game anyway, do to some real damage. Brissett can toss it (and he has Underwood back) and can also scoot...see no way these FCS players on defense can keep up with that. Finally, no way NCS has any 'take for granted' attitude in this game off their worst season in years and the fact Ga S upset the school NCS starting QB transferred from...GO PACK!

I do agree with VK that Ga S is virtually impossible to power rank with any degree of confidence...but I am confident that their defense will suck at this level.
 
On that Colorado under, and likely joining on Marshall and Virginia. Good luck this week and this year.
 
clowncar said:
Resume speaks for itself. Possibly best bowl coach ever.
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We are talking NC State resume here; he had plenty of time in Raleigh and I find his resume somewhat average. What he did in bowl games in Chestnut Hill matters very little to me.
 
horses said:
We are talking NC State resume here; he had plenty of time in Raleigh and I find his resume somewhat average. What he did in bowl games in Chestnut Hill matters very little to me.
Click to expand...


Like the resume of FDR, we will have to agree to disagree....
 
Texas A&M O 25.5, new QB, but should fill in nicely being a dual threat and with SC's defense being so young still, surely they can hit this mark.
 
well, if day one is any indication, I have no idea what to expect this year. Managed to win the Temple/Vandy under but doubt it was the right side or if it was ... for the wrong reasons. I thought Vandy's offense was taking a step back but a large portion of that play was on the Vandy front 7 and they didn't get the job done. Tulane/Tulsa under was way wrong, South Carolina was way wrong too ... I wasn't a big fan of laying that many against a sumlin offense where even if it goes well you probably have to sweat a backdoor but I thought there would be a game of transition at a minimum considering the talent they lost on that side of the ball. I considered using them in a ten pt teaser thinking SC would find a way at home in the opener in that situation. So even though I was wishy-washy on the play, I would have used them in a teaser if I hadn't backed them ats anyway.

I guess the only game of the four I would bet again is boise state and I can only say that based on what I read in the box score and from following the game on my phone for three quarters or so. Stats and play by play don't always tell the whole story though. Had you told me that BSU would be trailing 6-7 heading into the 4th I would have tripled my bet at a minimum .... tell me they also score a fourth quarter TD from there and I would probably bet 10 times my investment. But Ole Miss exploded and that could be depth at bsu where they just tired. So saying I would take bsu is on limited information too.

I guess Wake Forest is a fade team .. my lord.

Read in ckr thread that the cmu wr is banged up .. was lining up to play them week 2 at what I consider normal market numbers .. if he is out then just forget about it.

BYU banged up in the secondary and UCONN off late promising QB play ... so byu and under there makes little sense in that regard. I am thinking BYU controls the line of scrimmage and for as long as UCONN is in the game, I am going to trust their coach to play it slow and steady. If UConn scores more than 13 then I tip the cap to them.
 
couldn't disagree with you more about temple/vandy under not being the right side. watched every play of that game. 9 turnovers, defensive td's, countless short fields. a big percentage of temple's rush yards came in the late 3rd and 4th quarter when vandy completely gave up. the under was definitely the right play
 
I guess I am more grading my handicapping than the play as a whole, Dicky. It is one thing to say the game itself was the right side but the reasons it was are far removed from how I capped the game. I suppose I went overboard saying I wouldn't play it again but I wouldn't play it again based on how I had it capped.

I guess I am thinking about how the games play out compared to how I expect them to. Boise State was the closest for me last night .. lowish scoring game that Boise State stays competitive in with a chance to win with an above average fourth quarter. That is what happened except Ole Miss had the way better than average 4th quarter.

I also was shocked Wake couldn't put up an offensive TD against ULM. ULM winning certainly isn't shocking.

I got kickback from another guy on how I graded out that under fwiw .. with him pointing out the yards per play and turnovers as you have. Again .. had vandy done that to Temple then I would be more apt to give myself a better grade there .. and maybe I am being tough on myself.
 
Hopefully get a game right .. gonna keep firing

WKU TT OVER 27.5
Arizona/UNLV over 60 ( Need rebels to show up but not until the 2h )
 
A little worried this is the game that is easiest for unlv to get up for this season .. destroyed at home by Zona the last time and they aren't eligible to bowl due to stupidity ( athletes gonna athlete ). Also hard for Zona to get too up for the game. But RichRod puts it on lesser and I cant imagine unlv slowing down the offense of zona outside of turnovers or silly dropped passes or aide from the officiating crew ( unlikely with zona at home ). Actually a believer in this version of Arizona and have them higher than ASU in my pr and while I assume most would it doesn't appear to be the public feeling between the two teams. I like to Zona to pile it on early and get everyone a lot of work though and hopefully whatever is lost with zona backups in on offense late is made up with their back up defenders. Rebels oline is actually decent this year so they could have some success against questionable dl depth late.
 
bg going fast paced per hc change without the personnel to do it. They will find success against wku defensive turnover but they will have some execution errors and fast three and outs too. WKU offense can move it on anyone and the scheme changes there are small. BG a reload on defense team? I don't think so and slow bg pace aided their defense before and that is out the window now. WKU 34-31 outright win
 
agreed ^ Played over 60 as well. Just think Zona is going to get into the 40s and hoping the Rebs can get half of what ever that number will be.
BOL this year CC
J
 
Just believing my lying eyes here. BYU doing whatever they want to UConn despite getting pushed back with a lot of offensive penalties. UConn parlayed a turnover into a TD and should toss it around some in the second half. i don't think byu slows their pace much .... at least not in the 3rd quarter ... hard to think of ways that byu doesn't hit 17 points other than the backups scoring zero in the fourth based on what i saw in the first half. Just looked too easy.

In the event that the 6.5 isn't covering at least the starters are in the game.
 
I ruined that byu game for myself. awesome. But i don't mind that one.. i have to believe what i am seeing that entire first half. Amazing number of penalties for that byu squad.
 
10 pt teaser 3 team

Miami Florida +13.5
Washington -7
Utah State +14.5

That's it for me for pregame bets.
 
16-14 .. teaser pending .. if that loses it is a losing week 1. Actually felt i deserved better overall for the week .. but it is what it is.

Only a few games Saturday threw me for a complete loop .. most notably troy. Troy left some points off the board but basically got rolled
 
:notworthy::notworthy::notworthy:

Honestly. U know what we were different on, god was 100% wrong. Strong week kid
 
think Uva was one of my better handicaps since joining the site.

Guy i talk to warned me about Marshall road fave ATS history ... of course i pointed out MOH overall ATS in recent years ... but that was a sickly second half Marshall played. They are not what i thought or they got a Brazilian wax.

Auburn is just tough for anyone to stop and the delay really hurt Arkansas. They were competing until a turnover turned to TD for the Tigers killed the morale of Arkansas and we knew how that would go. Strangely, Auburn played better D second half than first half and better offense first half than second half. Would have thought Arkansas would wear them down some too.... at least for one second half score which is all they needed to cover ..

Purdue was the wrong side and those are two awful football teams. WMU missed an extra point which opened the door for a push with Purdue up three. Sure enough the boilers scored the TD .. and then proceeded to miss the extra point to win by 9 .. covering closing numbers but not mine.

USC looked good today but i do think a lot of that was a product of Fresno State being down. Defense actually was not as dominant up front as i would have expected but they got lucky with some turnovers. The offensive line is clearly the weak link of the offense. Kessler looked really good, as did the WR's ... the run game eventually found some footing as Fresno tired but i didn't see domination at the los there.

Felt unfortunate to lose the PSU under with three late scores in the final couple minutes to push it over and a 4/4 day from Ficken. I am happy for the kid but i get kind of mad at being on the short end of FG kicking because i actually take the time to assess the kickers which i think most forget to do. Suffice it to say i didn't expect him to go 4 for 4.

I did get lucky with a backdoor cover from La Tech though the game basically played out as expected and LT and over was guaranteed 1-1 minimum with a lot of time left in the game.

FSU just isn't as good as i thought or were extremely flat .. the defense was what really disappointed me there. FSU caught a majority of the breaks or they actually lose ... i think they right that ship but it wasn't impressive.

Tip of the cap to the Miners for a road win in a game they controlled most of the way but ended up needing two turnovers late by unm to win.

Ga Southern took care of business ... unfortunately too well on the defensive side of the ball to cash but having a three td dog almost win the game in two different games felt good...

Considering my mood Thursday after being wrong a lot .. i actually feel better about the investments Friday and Saturday. See you tomorrow
 
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