time to post my week 1 card so far

Kyle I am on ga southern, made tha line shorter than it is. I should be around later to talk that an other games over.
 
Love seeing this familiar thread title, means the best time of the year is upon us.

BOL Kyle
 
Anyone out there can reply esp if u making it own numbers..
Total on vandy temple thoughts pls
 
Pre-market total of 52/52.5 is in line with my 51.5. I don't see a value on the total as it sits now .. things could change when the real market hits.
 
Addition by subtraction at the qb position for Vandy but they bring in a defensive hard-nosed type at HC & DC and an NFL guy at OC .. just seems like a recipe for low scoring games. They break in a new qb basically into new systems and they don't have Matthews around to bail them out of their third and long situations anymore. Front seven will probably be the best Temple faces until they play Cincinnati in late November. Temple is kind of replacing a lot up front so I just don't see them moving the ball consistently on the dores. And while they caught lightning in a bottle on offense with the qb ... just can't believe it to start the year until I see it. Both teams were in the bottom half of plays per game last year so it isn't like we should expect a huge pace... vandy you would expect some slowness and Temple should go slow just from a game management standpoint as a DD dog. I do think teams change from 4-3 to 3-4 or from 3-4 to 4-3 can struggle with assignments early in a season so that works in Temples favor but I am not sure they can block anyone just yet.
 
Good luck this year VK. Always enjoy reading your perspective and may be joining you on a few. How those Miners gonna be this year?
 
Miners defense will be awful but the offense should be coming around to what he is trying to do ....
 
Hey Kyle. Hope all is well. Check the byU injury/suspension report. Going to be missing top 2 WRs, williams at RB, and some defensive guys for 1 game suspensions/injury problems. No idea about uconn but thought I'd make sure you were up to date on the byU side of things.
 
Jpicks -- Good to see you around. Hope you are not a stranger and start doing your MW or Pac12 stuff.


I will look at updated injury reports tonight. I don't have all that on my notes. I am actually a bit slow on injury news in general this year and will be throughout the year. Time isn't on my side for cfb capping the way it was prior to last year ( I had little time then too ).

Nice to see you even if you never return my calls. Started to wonder if you owed me ten bucks ....
 
Ya Gar ,,,, as we discussed the other day ... if I could only make one play week 1 it would be that under.
 
Kyle. Here is a link to byU message board that gives you a bit more detail on who will be in/out even more so than what the injury reports are saying. they have a new policy of not announcing suspensions so the ones that are known the players announced themselves on twitter.
 
Colorado. They're a buy-on team for me, at least initially until they go back to playing defense the way they did under Embree. Last year's CSU was the best Rams team in recent history by some distance and they got dominated by a Colorado team last year that won't be as good as this year's Colorado team.
 
TheGarfather said:
Colorado. They're a buy-on team for me, at least initially until they go back to playing defense the way they did under Embree. Last year's CSU was the best Rams team in recent history by some distance and they got dominated by a Colorado team last year that won't be as good as this year's Colorado team.
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
clowncar said:
Played Arkansas +21.5 , rotation # 179.

I will probably regret this on several levels ... 1. I am betting this prior to having my PR ready though it would be hard to imagine it won't be less by pr. ... 2. I am not sure if the line will grow or shrink and 3. I was too lazy to drive across town for a better number (22).
Click to expand...

I like this play, but I'll jump on Arky 1st half when it comes out. I like for Arky to hang tough for a half. I could see this one getting away from them late though. I'm not interested in sweating this one out for 4 quarters.

Best of luck to you this season!!!

:shake:
 
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Ya I would lean temple as well .... ..

thanks for the link JP,

Jimmy .. usually, I prefer the big dog for full game for obvious reasons ( though first half is often skewed ) but this game could be the rare case where there are some decent angles for a first half play .. Marshall out first qtr, Arkansas ability to quit mid-game in recent years, pace wearing down Razorbacks late, Arkansas run based and if forced to throw because way behind late that could be a problem as well ... Not a bad idea on your part
 
Though I generally like to lock in my stuff early ... but this was a game where I wasn't sure where line would go so maybe waiting would have been better.
 
DGB waiver to play in 2014 was denied. Should be worth a half point in the line and total. Don't see it adjusted yet ...
 
Ok .... I don't have time to get as in depth as my normal write-ups and there are so many plays week 1 that I barely have time to give brief explanations .. but I will start now ...


Why Virginia?

I have UCLA in a tie for the #3 spot in my power ratings. But last year Oregon ( a more known commodity ) was minus 23ish in the same spot with a team that is more built to blow out lesser competition by huge scores. Moreover, this years UVA squad is at least 3-4 points superior to last year's team. Having Ucla at #3 in my pr is probably the most positively speculative position that I have taken in my numbers going into the season. Despite this, when i make my line it comes out several points below 20 and the market is offering over three scores ( even a 23 in town now .. whoops to lock in I guess ). Then you have a three time zone travel situation from west to east for a 9AM pacific start time which lends itself to sluggish starts for the west coast team. We have a situation where the favorite doesn't need to impress pollsters either .. just win the pac12 and you make the playoffs... a blow out is meaningless. Bruins didn't cover this number on the road all of last year and were actually dogs in 5 of 6 road games ... now more than a three score fave. I wanted to make ucla prove my lofty ranking early but asking them to cover this number is going above and beyond even that. UVA has talent ... Obviously there is a huge coaching edge for the bruins and a pretty big special teams advantage as well for what is normally hidden points. But I really like the linebackers for cavs ... enough to keep them from being absolutely humiliated at home. And not to be even more repetitive but this line is giving ucla preseason credit greater than what Oregon had going into last season.... prove it.
 
12.5 is the o/u on number of games in wk 1 that you won't have a bet on. Im leaning under.

Decided to just take SC at the market number instead of finding the 10 pt teaser I see.
 
TheGarfather said:
12.5 is the o/u on number of games in wk 1 that you won't have a bet on. Im leaning under.

Decided to just take SC at the market number instead of finding the 10 pt teaser I see.
Click to expand...

yup .. I have a ton of belief in Sumlin and what he does ... but they lost so many great offensive players and I think it is a tall task to try and replace that on the road in week 1 against a team of this caliber and their defense is meh. I also have a high opinion of the SC qb ... It is one of those games where I have a feeling if the same line was offered in November I might be looking the other direction after tamu is seasoned a bit ... but it isn't November. Also think SC oline has its way with TAMU.

I feel pretty good about SC winning the game ... TAMU not the kind of offense I like to lay numbers vulnerable to backdoors with though ... so considered the ten pt teaser as we discussed. At the end of the day, where my power ratings have this only slightly higher than current, I like the situation enough to make a go of it.
 
Under Georgia/Clemson -- Just a case of Clemson having offensive turnover at key spots with special players against a solid Georgia defense. Georgia is going to run the football and I think the quality dline of Clemson can slow it down enough to force uga to throw some. Normally that might be an ok scenario if UGA was at full health at the wr position but Scott-Wesley has been suspended and Mitchell won't be playing either... leaving uga a little short at the position. I think Clemson develops offensively as the year progresses but for this one they are likely to struggle. Watched the Clemson spring game and the trenches were dominated by the tigers dl. Whether that is bad oline, good dline or a combination I am not 100% sure ... but whichever it was ... it looks good for the under. Usually for a game to hit the sixties you need either one really bad defense ( not applicable ) or two high powered offenses that rate to do well against the opponent ( not applicable ). Hopefully Clemson is smart enough to save their fast pace for a better spot.
 
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