time to post my bowl card so far

vk shake NBAfan

press -- I think Hanks finished in the top 700 in Texas in high school football. whoooooo
I have been souring on Mississippi State a bit .... team was super pumped to make a bowl ( more than any team that snuck in I think ) and an excited SEC team against a satisfied Rice who met all their goals already ( btw shout out to Gar who told me in the summer he thought rice had a shot a cusa title ) is hard for me to pass on.

unlv is winning straight up.
 
thanks d8

btw .. before I get in trouble with anyone ... being on niu doesn't mean you are stupid money, being on usu doesn't mean you are smart money. I hope everyone here has been around enough to know what I meant there. NIU deserves a look 2h but I am gonna pass on it and hope there is no overtime.

I knew special teams was going to be a killer in the early game... two scores ( though punching incident was NOT after the play but during ) from special teams in an under that low just will rarely end well. Pitt D dominated but I didn't see a way that Pitt rushing offense would do that. I mean, I knew they were likely to have improved over that month but that was ridiculous.
 
really appreciate all the effort.....thanks again, using your analysis and some work I did and then reading other threads and on a small heater. appreciate all you do.

FWIW: The "Strength of Schedule" has been a good tool in these early games, almost 100% wins ATS. (counting Wazzu as a victory, that was a ridiculous bad beat caused solely by Leach and am surprised there is a debate).

Here is what I had on SOS:

Wazzu #1/Col St#105;
USC #14/Fresno#111;
SDST#77/Buffalo#128;
OreSt#12/Boise#93;
Pitt#33/BGU#123;
UtahSt#82/Nilly#113.
Also ECU#108/Ohio#129 [both bad, but ecu with better quality wins].

Only Loss on SOS was Tulane#98/ULL#133

We have Maryland#72/Marshall#126 and Washington#13/BYU#35 tomorrow and Rutgers#90/ND#17 Saturday.... thinking about riding with SOS again in these games.
 
Last edited:
bones said:
really appreciate all the effort.....thanks again, using your analysis and some work I did and then reading other threads and on a small heater. appreciate all you do.

FWIW: The "Strength of Schedule" has been a good tool in these early games, almost 100%. (counting Wazzu as a victory, that was a ridiculous bad beat caused solely by Leach and am surprised there is a debate).

Here is what I had on SOS:

Wazzu #1/Col St#105;
USC #14/Fresno#111;
SDST#77/Buffalo#128;
OreSt#12/Boise#93;
Pitt#33/BGU#123;
UtahSt#82/Nilly#113.
Also ECU#108/Ohio#129 [both bad, but with better quality wins].

Only Loss on SOS was Tulane#98/ULL#133

We have Maryland#72/Marshall#126 and Washington#13/BYU#35 tomorrow and Rutgers#90/ND#17 Saturday.... thinking about riding with SOS again in these games.
Click to expand...

Interesting Good Information, bones :shake:
 
bones said:
really appreciate all the effort.....thanks again, using your analysis and some work I did and then reading other threads and on a small heater. appreciate all you do.

FWIW: The "Strength of Schedule" has been a good tool in these early games, almost 100% wins ATS. (counting Wazzu as a victory, that was a ridiculous bad beat caused solely by Leach and am surprised there is a debate).

Here is what I had on SOS:

Wazzu #1/Col St#105;
USC #14/Fresno#111;
SDST#77/Buffalo#128;
OreSt#12/Boise#93;
Pitt#33/BGU#123;
UtahSt#82/Nilly#113.
Also ECU#108/Ohio#129 [both bad, but ecu with better quality wins].

Only Loss on SOS was Tulane#98/ULL#133

We have Maryland#72/Marshall#126 and Washington#13/BYU#35 tomorrow and Rutgers#90/ND#17 Saturday.... thinking about riding with SOS again in these games.
Click to expand...

Thanks for putting that up bones. I've been riding the "tougher schedule" train for the most part as well. The motivation factor needs to be looked at in each one as well but I think for the most part, these teams are happy to be there. Leaning Terps this morning for that reason.
 
Oh, and clowncar......under was the right side in that Pitt/BG game, had some bad breaks that an under can't overcome.
 
adds

military bowl: terps/herd over 63 ( normal )
and
fight hunger :byu/wash over 61 ( less than a normal unit )
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
good stuff, kyle. are you totally sold on navy?
Click to expand...

Well there are the normal concerns with navy bets as a favorite ... limited possessions and a secondary that if it doesn't lose you the game , will still be vulnerable to backdoor. But they rate to do what 2011 gt did to mtsu rather than what 2012 gt did. Reynolds was passed on by the mtsu coach and Reynolds was on record long before this season that the two teams he wanted to beat were army and mtsu ..so I think he goes off here. question is the defense imo....
 
Score not indicative of how bad ksu punished Michigan. I finally had the refs on my side but it didn't matter. Was texting with a ctg member ( want to say it was dicky ) and he made a comment about how badly Michigan schemes defensively. How can you have that many quality recruits and still be that bad at getting a rush, that bad in coverage, that bad at tackling, that undisciplined, that confused and that uninspired.

In any event, I said the 7/7.5 juiced was ridiculous and I was right ... ridiculously low though.

UNC and ville were easy .. thought I was fortunate to under the ksu game since they were capable of getting a lot more had Michigan been scoring at all but felt unfortunate with all the missed oppos in the pinstripe. 3-2 probably the deserved result.

think the Michigan qb pans out for them. hell of an arm and if he develops some touch, look out.
 
I can't help thinking of the KU-KSU game. KU's defense put up much more of a fight than Michigan's did.
 
Thank you Kyle for a 3-1 day . (I did not play the Michigan side )
Left to my own devices, I would have played both Cincy and Miami.

The ND_Rutgers score was annoying as hell. 9 FG attempts, 3 touchdowns. Should easily have had one less FG and one more TD when Dodd missed the totally uncovered fullback in the left flat for an easy TD.
 
clowncar said:
Well there are the normal concerns with navy bets as a favorite ... limited possessions and a secondary that if it doesn't lose you the game , will still be vulnerable to backdoor. But they rate to do what 2011 gt did to mtsu rather than what 2012 gt did. Reynolds was passed on by the mtsu coach and Reynolds was on record long before this season that the two teams he wanted to beat were army and mtsu ..so I think he goes off here. question is the defense imo....
Click to expand...

agree, that on paper navy should cover. guess i just have a different take, especially when talking motivation.
don't doubt reynolds will be motivated. also don't doubt that the entire mtst team will be motivated. besides, ken just 1-4 bowling.
 
i was wondering what bar, hunt and the michigan clan think of hoke? is he falling out of favor? program momemtum seems to have slowed and that's always a really bad sign for any coach. currently has the 20th rated class. inexact science for sure, but michigan should be getting better than 20th and that game won't help him close late on some of the late guys.

good call on the blowouts and under clown. i wish mtsu didn't have the couple extra weeks to prepare for the option but i'm definitely on navy. gl
 
clowncar said:
Score not indicative of how bad ksu punished Michigan. I finally had the refs on my side but it didn't matter. Was texting with a ctg member ( want to say it was dicky ) and he made a comment about how badly Michigan schemes defensively. How can you have that many quality recruits and still be that bad at getting a rush, that bad in coverage, that bad at tackling, that undisciplined, that confused and that uninspired.

In any event, I said the 7/7.5 juiced was ridiculous and I was right ... ridiculously low though.

UNC and ville were easy .. thought I was fortunate to under the ksu game since they were capable of getting a lot more had Michigan been scoring at all but felt unfortunate with all the missed oppos in the pinstripe. 3-2 probably the deserved result.

think the Michigan qb pans out for them. hell of an arm and if he develops some touch, look out.
Click to expand...



It hurts man...it is what it is right now...
 
dickydunn said:
i was wondering what bar, hunt and the michigan clan think of hoke? is he falling out of favor? program momemtum seems to have slowed and that's always a really bad sign for any coach. currently has the 20th rated class. inexact science for sure, but michigan should be getting better than 20th and that game won't help him close late on some of the late guys.

good call on the blowouts and under clown. i wish mtsu didn't have the couple extra weeks to prepare for the option but i'm definitely on navy. gl
Click to expand...

Smaller class numbers-wise so that is part of it. I actually really like this class(obv gotta wait till that first tues in feb to make sure Peppers is all-in).

Personally on Hoke...he recruits like a beast which I never saw coming in...not sure what to think rationally in other facets...key word rationally...give me a few weeks on that one...
 
dickydunn said:
i was wondering what bar, hunt and the michigan clan think of hoke? is he falling out of favor? program momemtum seems to have slowed and that's always a really bad sign for any coach. currently has the 20th rated class. inexact science for sure, but michigan should be getting better than 20th and that game won't help him close late on some of the late guys.

good call on the blowouts and under clown. i wish mtsu didn't have the couple extra weeks to prepare for the option but i'm definitely on navy. gl
Click to expand...
Right now Borges is the fall guy...but Hoke seemingly will not part with him...may end up being his demise
 
Love Texas and the Holiday Over tonight....played em straight and teases as well. Horns +21 and Over 65 nice numbers. GL today.
 
Navy cruising scoring td on first drive and moving at will to start second drive ... then over the course of the second drive they lost two starting olinemen, 1 blocking TE ( aka third lineman ) and since have not gotten chunk runs. They lost a linebacker to injury, a safety to an ejection, and the backup safety just got his bell rung. Not gonna know who gets healthy to play 2h but if those guys are all out mtsu is the better team. Raiders receive the 2h kick as well.
 
kingsbury look like ryan gosling to anyone else?

Shame to have a +14 , hold opposing offense to 1 offensive td and lose .... and amazingly still be on the wrong side of the game. McCoy is shockingly bad at qb

ASU/ttech total was just me thinking Kelly was an average qb or better. let go of the ball, son.

GTECH was dominated. score not indicative how how badly they were outplayed imo.

shame on mtsu kids for playing thug-ball against an academy. glad they got their punk butts beaten.
 
some tough picks today after one big surprise last night, and I was a bit surprised at GT's showing

GL, my friend.
 
luckythirteen said:
any chance for a write up on UNLV?
Click to expand...


The UNLV team really came into its own late in the year defensively as far as taking away the opponents strength. They held Running Nevada 50 yards or so below their average ( 50 above total ), They held SJSU to 175 yards or so below their normal passing stats ( 1below total), They held Utah State 25 yards below their normal rushing average ( 30 above total ), They held AFA 35 yards or so below their normal rushing numbers ( 70 below total ), and held sdsu to 88 yards rushing and 327 total yards. They just came together as a unit. The most comparable team to unt is Utah State ,,,, except Utah State has a better defense ( not that unt is not good, they are ).


So I see the game playing out with both teams running the ball with some success but probably not in any dominating fashion ( unt run defense good as well )... and that makes for a running clock. Both teams struggle mightily kicking FG's and if it comes to that we could see a six or seven minute drive that does not result in points in this game. UNLV statistically has a better offense than unt by about the same margin as unt has the better defense after you adjust for the schedules faced .. certainly doesn't fall into the TD dog area imo.

With the motivational edges in favor of unlv imo and momentum for a team that is getting better each week, with the kids buying in ... I think they find a way to win the game.
 
clowncar said:
The UNLV team really came into its own late in the year defensively as far as taking away the opponents strength. They held Running Nevada 50 yards or so below their average ( 50 above total ), They held SJSU to 175 yards or so below their normal passing stats ( 1below total), They held Utah State 25 yards below their normal rushing average ( 30 above total ), They held AFA 35 yards or so below their normal rushing numbers ( 70 below total ), and held sdsu to 88 yards rushing and 327 total yards. They just came together as a unit. The most comparable team to unt is Utah State ,,,, except Utah State has a better defense ( not that unt is not good, they are ).


So I see the game playing out with both teams running the ball with some success but probably not in any dominating fashion ( unt run defense good as well )... and that makes for a running clock. Both teams struggle mightily kicking FG's and if it comes to that we could see a six or seven minute drive that does not result in points in this game. UNLV statistically has a better offense than unt by about the same margin as unt has the better defense after you adjust for the schedules faced .. certainly doesn't fall into the TD dog area imo.

With the motivational edges in favor of unlv imo and momentum for a team that is getting better each week, with the kids buying in ... I think they find a way to win the game.
Click to expand...


Thanks Clowncar!
 
clowncar said:
add

tamu/duke over 75 ( less than a normal unit )

Just in case jff goes off
Click to expand...

Here ya go Kyle ... just to end 2013 or kick-off 2014 for ya ...

<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.421875px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">Adam Kramer @KegsnEggs
</header>If you bet the over, I assume your pants are already off, hanging from a lamp or fan or burning on your family room floor.
 
excellent recovery on the late games, Kyle.

and here's pulling for a doggy day today :cigarguy::clapping::thumbsup2::aok:
 
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