time to post my bowl card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
VK/CC doin' work... :cheers:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have a normal format for bowl write-ups but I am mixingthe order a bit because the main point of the play in this game is based on onearea of the writeup. I just don’t havethe time for detailed write-ups like I used to so those who read my bowl write-upslast year that often took a couple hours to type up coherently are going to bedisappointed with the lack of in depth within this year but they will give thebasic reasoning…. Onward.<o
></o>
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New Mexico Bowl<o></o>
Colorado State (7-6) Vs. Washington State (6-6)<o></o>
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Stength of Schedule/conference strength/common opponents-LargeEdge Washington State<o></o>
This is the most important facet of handicapping this game in my opinion. The reason is thatWashington State played a very difficult schedule and CSU played one of theeasiest schedules in college football. <o></o>
The combined record against FBS competition for theopponents of CSU this year was 49-92. They played Alabama and if you removed them from the equation thatrecord moves to 38-91 or 29.4% as a winning percentage. Obviously, you could remove Hawaii numbers aswell to remove the other extreme except that the other extreme is thenorm. The average national ranking ofthe opposing defense faced by CSU in their wins is 116[SUP]th[/SUP]! In 4 of their 6 losses the opposing defenseswere ranked 109[SUP]th[/SUP] 104[SUP]th[/SUP], 97[SUP]th[/SUP] and 75[SUP]th[/SUP]. The highest quality win on the CSU scheduleis a win at 4-11 Wyoming. Again…. RemoveAlabama from the equation for a second .. the combined record of the teams thatbeat CSU against fbs competition was 24-32. They played three bowl teams and lost by dd to all three averaging 12points per game. Granted SJSU wassnubbed for lesser teams ( like csu and ohio ) but they lost that game by a tdas well. If I had time ( or cared enoughabout other people ) I would get into more detail on this in the writeup butsuffice it to say the surface information is good enough.<o></o>
On the flip side, you have a Washington State club that hadquality wins over Arizona and USC ( will get to those in a minute too as theyare applicable to this game ) and 5 of their losses were to quality clubs (Auburn, Washington, ASU, Oregon and Oregon State ). While the Oregon State score was lopsided,the game was close until an ill-timed fake punt attempt fail by Leach and quitefrankly, Washington State thoroughly outplayed Auburn and should have won thatfootball game.<o></o>
This is just too glaring to ignore though one should notethat teams in the past that have been questionable bowl teams have oftenoverachieved in their bowl game. Withthat said, a win over Washington State would be Colorado States ONLY qualitywin of the season if they pull it off.<o></o>
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Coaching – Small edge Washington State<o></o>
Normally, I would give Leach the edge over most coaches ashe smartly goes for it more than most coaches and schemes really well againsthis defensive opponent. But with hissmart aggressiveness does come some volatility. I am also a fan of McElwain on the other sideline and think he is doinggood work. But one would be hard pressednot to give Washington State at least a small edge and I suspect most wouldgive them a slightly larger edge than I have accounted for.<o></o>
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Venue – Push to small edge csu<o></o>
I could give CSU an edge here based on altitude and proximitybut both seem pretty inconsequential to me. Washington State will be playing in weather very normal for them andboth teams have sold about 5,000 tickets so far but 1,000 of the CSU ticketswere bought and donated to military personnel . So the proximity factor isn’t that big … nor do I think there is a hugeadvantage to having played in that stadium before. So the Rams are not getting an edge forhaving more fans in the seats.<o></o>
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Motivation- Push<o></o>
I tend to lean to being conservative on how much of an edge Igive teams for motivation because handicapping motivation has been a strugglefor me in the past ( and most people that I have watched attempt to handicap itover the years ). I have tracked thissome the two previous years with Garfather and we haven’t found that theperceived motivational edges add up to much of an edge at all. Both teams are hungry for the bowl win, CSUshould be more excited about opponent, and Washington State should be interestedin finishing with a winning season. I amsure most give Washington State the motivational edge with how long it has beenfor them and wanting to validate their high profile coaching hire with a bowl win but I need the edge to be glaring to weight it much.<o></o>
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Special Teams – large edge CSU<o></o>
CSU has the better kicking game in all aspects. Their punter is better and I give their PK an edge as well. But CSU has been really good in the return game this year ( kept them in the Colorado game and almost single handedly won them the Tulsa game which they ended up losing anyway ).<o></o>
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Washington State offense vs csu defense<o></o> large edge Washington state
Obviously, whenever you look at a game involving WashingtonState, one of the most important areas to examine is the cougars opponentsdefense against the pass. CSU is 111[SUP]th[/SUP]in the nation against the pass, yielding 265.4 yards per game, while giving upan average of 7.9 yards per attempts ( 100[SUP]th[/SUP] ). Again, what is troubling is how bad they haveperformed against bad competition.<o></o>
Colorado 440, they avg 249.1<o></o>
Tulsa 212, they avg 191.4<o></o>
Bama 272, they avg 236.9<o></o>
Utep 365, they avg 163.3<o></o>
Sjsu 431, they avg 355.9 <o></o>
Wyoming 251, they avg 282.4<o></o>
Hawaii 386, they avg 301.4<o></o>
Boise st 305, they avg 269<o></o>
Nevada 247 they avg 247.3<o></o>
New mexico 249, they avg 113.8<o></o>
Utah state 43, they avg 241.3<o></o>
Air force 125, they avg 104.9<o></o>
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You get the idea … … teams tend to drastically over performthrough the air when facing CSU and their 111[SUP]th[/SUP] rated passingdefense was created despite facing two fbs option teams and cal poly.<o></o>
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Balance is optional for Washington State.<o></o>
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CSU offense vs Washington State defense<o></o>small edge Colorado state
Washington State defense is sometimes optional as well. They rank 105[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation intotal defense, 108[SUP]th[/SUP] against the pass, and 85[SUP]th[/SUP] againstthe run. However, adjusting foropposition you find that Washington State’s yards per play allowed is roughly5.37 yards per play or 52[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the nation ( credit adjustedstats.comand I recommend the site. I can’tremember if buckeye showed me that site or if I got wind of it from the barkingcarnival days but it is a great tool ).<o></o>
CSU has pretty good balance and I think their play callingis pretty good as well. They are 28[SUP]th[/SUP]in the nation in total offense and average 6.3 yards per play ( again if youadjust for schedule they are more middle of the pack though ). What they really like to do is hand the balloff to sophomore RB Kapri Bibs. He hasan impressive 120.92 yards per game on the ground at a whopping 6.19 yards percarry. Their offensive line plays aphysical brand of offense and they like to set up the passing game via the runand loosen you up in the back when you bring guys forward. However, Washington State has played a fewteams who like to power run and then hit you with the pass … teams like Auburn,usc, Arizona, Washington and Stanford. Whilesome of those schemes are different .. look at how Washington State performedto average against them …<o></o>
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Auburn 394, they average 505<o></o>
Usc 193, they average 392<o></o>
Stanford 560, they average 413<o></o>
Washington 405, they average 514<o></o>
Arizona 395, they average 453<o></o>
The USC game happened while kiffin was still there and thatteam got a lot better after he was fired, so take that with a grain of salt butthe above illustrates that Washington State can matchup to some degree withoffenses that are run first, pass second in style which CSU certainly is. It also illustrates the strength of scheduledifference ….. and to make one more point on that front, I have a feeling bamabeats up on csu more if the coach had been any other man than McElwain.<o></o>
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I think that CSU can move the ball on Washington State andlook for them to contribute to the scoreboard but the matchups favor WashingtonState and the better team is not at a motivational disadvantage.<o></o>
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Other Notes<o></o>
One concern for the game as a cougar backer will be the fact that they are shotgun based spread and the rams are more power based. As a general rule, the team that is powerbased is going to fair better near the goal line. I think this is mitigated by the matchupadvantages of wazzu wr’s vs csu db’s but it is a concern.<o></o>
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Bottom line is that CSU is class relief for WashingtonState, representing one of their easiest opponents of the season and,conversely, Washington State would represent the best win on CSU’s schedule todate.<o></o>
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The Plays:<o></o>
Washington State minus the points and over the posted total<o></o>
></o><o
></o>New Mexico Bowl<o
></o>Colorado State (7-6) Vs. Washington State (6-6)<o
></o><o
></o>Stength of Schedule/conference strength/common opponents-LargeEdge Washington State<o
></o>This is the most important facet of handicapping this game in my opinion. The reason is thatWashington State played a very difficult schedule and CSU played one of theeasiest schedules in college football. <o
></o>The combined record against FBS competition for theopponents of CSU this year was 49-92. They played Alabama and if you removed them from the equation thatrecord moves to 38-91 or 29.4% as a winning percentage. Obviously, you could remove Hawaii numbers aswell to remove the other extreme except that the other extreme is thenorm. The average national ranking ofthe opposing defense faced by CSU in their wins is 116[SUP]th[/SUP]! In 4 of their 6 losses the opposing defenseswere ranked 109[SUP]th[/SUP] 104[SUP]th[/SUP], 97[SUP]th[/SUP] and 75[SUP]th[/SUP]. The highest quality win on the CSU scheduleis a win at 4-11 Wyoming. Again…. RemoveAlabama from the equation for a second .. the combined record of the teams thatbeat CSU against fbs competition was 24-32. They played three bowl teams and lost by dd to all three averaging 12points per game. Granted SJSU wassnubbed for lesser teams ( like csu and ohio ) but they lost that game by a tdas well. If I had time ( or cared enoughabout other people ) I would get into more detail on this in the writeup butsuffice it to say the surface information is good enough.<o
></o>On the flip side, you have a Washington State club that hadquality wins over Arizona and USC ( will get to those in a minute too as theyare applicable to this game ) and 5 of their losses were to quality clubs (Auburn, Washington, ASU, Oregon and Oregon State ). While the Oregon State score was lopsided,the game was close until an ill-timed fake punt attempt fail by Leach and quitefrankly, Washington State thoroughly outplayed Auburn and should have won thatfootball game.<o
></o>This is just too glaring to ignore though one should notethat teams in the past that have been questionable bowl teams have oftenoverachieved in their bowl game. Withthat said, a win over Washington State would be Colorado States ONLY qualitywin of the season if they pull it off.<o
></o><o
></o>Coaching – Small edge Washington State<o
></o>Normally, I would give Leach the edge over most coaches ashe smartly goes for it more than most coaches and schemes really well againsthis defensive opponent. But with hissmart aggressiveness does come some volatility. I am also a fan of McElwain on the other sideline and think he is doinggood work. But one would be hard pressednot to give Washington State at least a small edge and I suspect most wouldgive them a slightly larger edge than I have accounted for.<o
></o><o
></o>Venue – Push to small edge csu<o
></o>I could give CSU an edge here based on altitude and proximitybut both seem pretty inconsequential to me. Washington State will be playing in weather very normal for them andboth teams have sold about 5,000 tickets so far but 1,000 of the CSU ticketswere bought and donated to military personnel . So the proximity factor isn’t that big … nor do I think there is a hugeadvantage to having played in that stadium before. So the Rams are not getting an edge forhaving more fans in the seats.<o
></o><o
></o>Motivation- Push<o
></o>I tend to lean to being conservative on how much of an edge Igive teams for motivation because handicapping motivation has been a strugglefor me in the past ( and most people that I have watched attempt to handicap itover the years ). I have tracked thissome the two previous years with Garfather and we haven’t found that theperceived motivational edges add up to much of an edge at all. Both teams are hungry for the bowl win, CSUshould be more excited about opponent, and Washington State should be interestedin finishing with a winning season. I amsure most give Washington State the motivational edge with how long it has beenfor them and wanting to validate their high profile coaching hire with a bowl win but I need the edge to be glaring to weight it much.<o
></o><o
></o>Special Teams – large edge CSU<o
></o>CSU has the better kicking game in all aspects. Their punter is better and I give their PK an edge as well. But CSU has been really good in the return game this year ( kept them in the Colorado game and almost single handedly won them the Tulsa game which they ended up losing anyway ).<o
></o><o
></o>Washington State offense vs csu defense<o
></o> large edge Washington stateObviously, whenever you look at a game involving WashingtonState, one of the most important areas to examine is the cougars opponentsdefense against the pass. CSU is 111[SUP]th[/SUP]in the nation against the pass, yielding 265.4 yards per game, while giving upan average of 7.9 yards per attempts ( 100[SUP]th[/SUP] ). Again, what is troubling is how bad they haveperformed against bad competition.<o
></o>Colorado 440, they avg 249.1<o
></o>Tulsa 212, they avg 191.4<o
></o>Bama 272, they avg 236.9<o
></o>Utep 365, they avg 163.3<o
></o>Sjsu 431, they avg 355.9 <o
></o>Wyoming 251, they avg 282.4<o
></o>Hawaii 386, they avg 301.4<o
></o>Boise st 305, they avg 269<o
></o>Nevada 247 they avg 247.3<o
></o>New mexico 249, they avg 113.8<o
></o>Utah state 43, they avg 241.3<o
></o>Air force 125, they avg 104.9<o
></o><o
></o>You get the idea … … teams tend to drastically over performthrough the air when facing CSU and their 111[SUP]th[/SUP] rated passingdefense was created despite facing two fbs option teams and cal poly.<o
></o><o
></o>Balance is optional for Washington State.<o
></o><o
></o>CSU offense vs Washington State defense<o
></o>small edge Colorado stateWashington State defense is sometimes optional as well. They rank 105[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation intotal defense, 108[SUP]th[/SUP] against the pass, and 85[SUP]th[/SUP] againstthe run. However, adjusting foropposition you find that Washington State’s yards per play allowed is roughly5.37 yards per play or 52[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the nation ( credit adjustedstats.comand I recommend the site. I can’tremember if buckeye showed me that site or if I got wind of it from the barkingcarnival days but it is a great tool ).<o
></o>CSU has pretty good balance and I think their play callingis pretty good as well. They are 28[SUP]th[/SUP]in the nation in total offense and average 6.3 yards per play ( again if youadjust for schedule they are more middle of the pack though ). What they really like to do is hand the balloff to sophomore RB Kapri Bibs. He hasan impressive 120.92 yards per game on the ground at a whopping 6.19 yards percarry. Their offensive line plays aphysical brand of offense and they like to set up the passing game via the runand loosen you up in the back when you bring guys forward. However, Washington State has played a fewteams who like to power run and then hit you with the pass … teams like Auburn,usc, Arizona, Washington and Stanford. Whilesome of those schemes are different .. look at how Washington State performedto average against them …<o
></o><o
></o>Auburn 394, they average 505<o
></o>Usc 193, they average 392<o
></o>Stanford 560, they average 413<o
></o>Washington 405, they average 514<o
></o>Arizona 395, they average 453<o
></o>The USC game happened while kiffin was still there and thatteam got a lot better after he was fired, so take that with a grain of salt butthe above illustrates that Washington State can matchup to some degree withoffenses that are run first, pass second in style which CSU certainly is. It also illustrates the strength of scheduledifference ….. and to make one more point on that front, I have a feeling bamabeats up on csu more if the coach had been any other man than McElwain.<o
></o><o
></o>I think that CSU can move the ball on Washington State andlook for them to contribute to the scoreboard but the matchups favor WashingtonState and the better team is not at a motivational disadvantage.<o
></o><o
></o>Other Notes<o
></o>One concern for the game as a cougar backer will be the fact that they are shotgun based spread and the rams are more power based. As a general rule, the team that is powerbased is going to fair better near the goal line. I think this is mitigated by the matchupadvantages of wazzu wr’s vs csu db’s but it is a concern.<o
></o><o
></o>Bottom line is that CSU is class relief for WashingtonState, representing one of their easiest opponents of the season and,conversely, Washington State would represent the best win on CSU’s schedule todate.<o
></o><o
></o>The Plays:<o
></o>Washington State minus the points and over the posted total<o
></o>
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Las Vegas Bowl
fresno state vs usc
Coaching Edge: Medium Fresno State
-Given the situation with Oregeron out and Sark in and Clay Helton coaching the bowl game, coupled with a good coach on the opposing sideline, one has to give Fresno an advantage here.
Venue Edge: Medium USC
-USC is the adopted team of Las Vegas. There are more Trojan fans living in Las Vegas than there are Rebels fans. USC fans also travel better than Fresno State fans.
Special Teams Edge : Push
I think that Fresno State has a slight edge in most categories but the explosive punt return plays of USC make it all even out .... so while I think there are more hidden yards for Fresno State the likelihood of a game changing play favors the Trojans.
Motivation: Push
This is a really tough one to figure out. USC has been acting the exact opposite of how they acted in el paso for last years bowl game. They seem excited to be here. With that said, they wanted Orgeron as a head coach and this isn't exactly the bowl opponent that these usc kids wanted to play when they took the money to go to usc (
). However, bad bowl performances are often demons that are exorcised the following year. Meanwhile, Fresno State as a California based team might be more excited to play USC.... but they might also be disappointed that they are in a Las Vegas bowl instead of a BCS bowl. This is really tough to figure out and Fresno State has their own bowl demons to exorcise from last year. One other fear for Fresno State backers is one has to wonder at what point Carr protects his career by releasing the ball too early as USC defensive linemen are in his face all game?
USC offense vs Fresno State defense - medium edge USC
I refuse to ever give USC a huge offensive edge. They are somewhat banged up on that side of the ball heading into the game and they just make too many penalties and too many poor execution plays to warrant it. However, Fresno state has given up over 500 yards in a third of their games, including over 700 to SJSU. They rank 92nd in total defense and, more importantly, they rank 118th against the pass this year. USC has a pair of studs on the outside and are as healthy as they have been at WR all year. While Tre Madden is banged up and questionable and their oline is banged up and undisciplined, USC should have huge plays available in the passing game all day long.
USC Defense vs Fresno State Offense - Push
USC rates to dominate at the point of attack and they have done an amazing job defending the pass this year against pass heavy teams. Fresno State has done a great job protecting Carr. He has been sacked just 11 times and that offensive line will be tested by a USC defense that has forced 34 sacks on the year against quality competition. Fresno has scored 35 or more in all but one game and they mustered 24 in that one. They have a prolific offense with quality across the board but especially at WR with Adams and Harper ( groin questionable ) who both are in the top 40 in receiving in CFB right now. While I think USC matches up well defensively, it is hard to imagine another completely lackluster offensive bowl performance from this Fresno State offense and I expect them to hit the low to high twenties in this game.
Overview:
USC has turned their season around and what better way to culminate the year than by winning a bowl game after last seasons debacle at the sun bowl? They have played two defenses all year who were in the same realm of the poor Fresno State defense. They should find sledding here much easier. And I have a hard time finding the scenario where USC is not scoring. I have little doubt they answer Fresno State scores and if they dominate from the defensive line and Fresno is going three and out ... the fresno defense isn't good enough to not yield points to just about any cfb team with a pulse. USC has played a much tougher schedule and will have more butts in the stands cheering them on today than the bulldogs will. Fresno State is just not as good as their record and playing against the best team they have seen all year long, I think they fall short. In fact, I actually think they get their doors blown off.
The plays
usc minus the pts and over the posted total
fresno state vs usc
Coaching Edge: Medium Fresno State
-Given the situation with Oregeron out and Sark in and Clay Helton coaching the bowl game, coupled with a good coach on the opposing sideline, one has to give Fresno an advantage here.
Venue Edge: Medium USC
-USC is the adopted team of Las Vegas. There are more Trojan fans living in Las Vegas than there are Rebels fans. USC fans also travel better than Fresno State fans.
Special Teams Edge : Push
I think that Fresno State has a slight edge in most categories but the explosive punt return plays of USC make it all even out .... so while I think there are more hidden yards for Fresno State the likelihood of a game changing play favors the Trojans.
Motivation: Push
This is a really tough one to figure out. USC has been acting the exact opposite of how they acted in el paso for last years bowl game. They seem excited to be here. With that said, they wanted Orgeron as a head coach and this isn't exactly the bowl opponent that these usc kids wanted to play when they took the money to go to usc (
). However, bad bowl performances are often demons that are exorcised the following year. Meanwhile, Fresno State as a California based team might be more excited to play USC.... but they might also be disappointed that they are in a Las Vegas bowl instead of a BCS bowl. This is really tough to figure out and Fresno State has their own bowl demons to exorcise from last year. One other fear for Fresno State backers is one has to wonder at what point Carr protects his career by releasing the ball too early as USC defensive linemen are in his face all game?USC offense vs Fresno State defense - medium edge USC
I refuse to ever give USC a huge offensive edge. They are somewhat banged up on that side of the ball heading into the game and they just make too many penalties and too many poor execution plays to warrant it. However, Fresno state has given up over 500 yards in a third of their games, including over 700 to SJSU. They rank 92nd in total defense and, more importantly, they rank 118th against the pass this year. USC has a pair of studs on the outside and are as healthy as they have been at WR all year. While Tre Madden is banged up and questionable and their oline is banged up and undisciplined, USC should have huge plays available in the passing game all day long.
USC Defense vs Fresno State Offense - Push
USC rates to dominate at the point of attack and they have done an amazing job defending the pass this year against pass heavy teams. Fresno State has done a great job protecting Carr. He has been sacked just 11 times and that offensive line will be tested by a USC defense that has forced 34 sacks on the year against quality competition. Fresno has scored 35 or more in all but one game and they mustered 24 in that one. They have a prolific offense with quality across the board but especially at WR with Adams and Harper ( groin questionable ) who both are in the top 40 in receiving in CFB right now. While I think USC matches up well defensively, it is hard to imagine another completely lackluster offensive bowl performance from this Fresno State offense and I expect them to hit the low to high twenties in this game.
Overview:
USC has turned their season around and what better way to culminate the year than by winning a bowl game after last seasons debacle at the sun bowl? They have played two defenses all year who were in the same realm of the poor Fresno State defense. They should find sledding here much easier. And I have a hard time finding the scenario where USC is not scoring. I have little doubt they answer Fresno State scores and if they dominate from the defensive line and Fresno is going three and out ... the fresno defense isn't good enough to not yield points to just about any cfb team with a pulse. USC has played a much tougher schedule and will have more butts in the stands cheering them on today than the bulldogs will. Fresno State is just not as good as their record and playing against the best team they have seen all year long, I think they fall short. In fact, I actually think they get their doors blown off.
The plays
usc minus the pts and over the posted total
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Really quick
Idaho Potato bowl is sdsu and under. The under is easy to figure out .... you have a buffalo team that loves to run the ball and a sdsu team that really defends the run well and you have a sdsu team that can throw it a little bit and a buffalo team that can defend the pass. The reason I prefer SDSU is because they are more battle tested with quality wins and losses. I also think they are better suited for coming from behind to win if it is going badly and I think they are more balanced overall .... I think buffalo has more of the field to defend than the Aztecs.
New Orleans Bowl
Tulane and Under -- Tulane is tough to pass the ball on if you have all your horses.... ULL QB Broadway likely to miss the game and they managed just 8 points in the first game he was out. The extra snaps for Haack ( sp? ) will help but I have a hard time seeing ULL running it down the throat of Tulane. This is the third straight year for ULL in this game? How excited can they be? And this is the last game Tulane will be playing with this as their main home stadium. ULL has benefitted from having a huge hfa in this game the last two years that won't be there today and the kicker they won with the last two years is gone .. replaced by a sophomore who is just 8 of 13 on the year. On the flip side, Tulane gets healthy at the QB position and should be highly motivated here. Just taking the better defense, the team I think should be more motivated, and the team with the healthier starting QB ... even if his name isn't Joe.
Idaho Potato bowl is sdsu and under. The under is easy to figure out .... you have a buffalo team that loves to run the ball and a sdsu team that really defends the run well and you have a sdsu team that can throw it a little bit and a buffalo team that can defend the pass. The reason I prefer SDSU is because they are more battle tested with quality wins and losses. I also think they are better suited for coming from behind to win if it is going badly and I think they are more balanced overall .... I think buffalo has more of the field to defend than the Aztecs.
New Orleans Bowl
Tulane and Under -- Tulane is tough to pass the ball on if you have all your horses.... ULL QB Broadway likely to miss the game and they managed just 8 points in the first game he was out. The extra snaps for Haack ( sp? ) will help but I have a hard time seeing ULL running it down the throat of Tulane. This is the third straight year for ULL in this game? How excited can they be? And this is the last game Tulane will be playing with this as their main home stadium. ULL has benefitted from having a huge hfa in this game the last two years that won't be there today and the kicker they won with the last two years is gone .. replaced by a sophomore who is just 8 of 13 on the year. On the flip side, Tulane gets healthy at the QB position and should be highly motivated here. Just taking the better defense, the team I think should be more motivated, and the team with the healthier starting QB ... even if his name isn't Joe.
bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
the info and thoughts are always appreciated
GL
GL
HammersSpreads
Pretty much a regular
Very good stuff my man. I know it takes a lot of time to do write ups, but it's always good to see them. We have the same exact feelings about wazzou. Good luck buddy
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Feel pretty good about how today's games played out.
las vegas bowl -- I thought usc would blow the doors off those pretenders and they did. motivation was one of my only concerns. I did have concern about fresno contribution to the total too. while most cashed that total it really got steamed and late bettors took it in the shorts.
new mexico bowl -- played out pretty much exactly as capped
new Orleans bowl- unfortunate that broadway played but the killer to the side were the returned int for score by ull and the int deep in Tulane territory to set up the chip shot game winner. Even with broadway, they scored 17 offensive points and had just 325 yards. just an unfortunate result and the wave put themselves behind the 8 ball there.
potato bowl -- this is the one I think I was off on ... really envisioned a defensive struggle ...but I cant complain too much ... had dog ( closed the fave ) and under and the favorite had 309 yards and just 113 from their primary attack ( rushing ).
Unfortunately ... struggling to find the play in ecu/ohio and running out of time...
las vegas bowl -- I thought usc would blow the doors off those pretenders and they did. motivation was one of my only concerns. I did have concern about fresno contribution to the total too. while most cashed that total it really got steamed and late bettors took it in the shorts.
new mexico bowl -- played out pretty much exactly as capped
new Orleans bowl- unfortunate that broadway played but the killer to the side were the returned int for score by ull and the int deep in Tulane territory to set up the chip shot game winner. Even with broadway, they scored 17 offensive points and had just 325 yards. just an unfortunate result and the wave put themselves behind the 8 ball there.
potato bowl -- this is the one I think I was off on ... really envisioned a defensive struggle ...but I cant complain too much ... had dog ( closed the fave ) and under and the favorite had 309 yards and just 113 from their primary attack ( rushing ).
Unfortunately ... struggling to find the play in ecu/ohio and running out of time...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I meant the bulk of the game ... not the debacle. Though when I examined the box score, CSU actually outgained WSU significantly. Incidentally, Washington State had negative 10 yards rushing for the game, Halliday had negative yards rushing for the year, the rb who fumbled twice at the end of the game had also fumbled earlier in the game but WSU recovered. You have to tip the cap to Leach.... that was a hard one to figure out a way to lose with.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Hope this one is on the Sirius radio as it is a road travel day for me getting home for the holidays .. some really quick thoughts.
Ohio struggled down the stretch blocking up front at the offensive line. Tettleton had no time to pass at all and the running game was not what it had been. Some may think it was rectified in the UMASS game and it certainly improved but they still only had 460 yards or so that game and two of the TD's in their 51 point burst were interception returns for TD's. Ohio ranked 29 against the pass this year giving up 212 yards per game but that is deceiving because of opponents faced. They were somewhere around 83rd in yards per pass attempt against. With that said, they played decent pass defense on the average and did have 14 interceptions. Obviously, I expect Carden and company to do more damage than that here. While not quite as bad as their numbers show ( again style of opponents that benefitted their pass D numbers ) on rushing defense, the Bobcats can be had somewhat on the ground. The problem there is that ECU ( As I mentioned early in the year ) can't run block well. I think this lines up decently because ECU will have slightly more success running than they are accustomed to, Ruffin has said in an interview I listened to that they might run more than usual this game and be slightly more balanced, and that may mean less plays in the game than a normal ecu affair. One of my worries with Washington State against CSU was the fact they couldn't run the ball and that this often makes for struggles near the goal line .. the worry didn't come to fruition as they just passed it in with ease all day but that same worry applies to ECU. East Carolina is shockingly 15th in the nation against the run this year and while that is skewed by ease of schedule and style of opponent, their run defense has looked solid to my naked eye and should do well here against ohio. Where ECU is obviously weaker is defending the pass but I don't think that the Ohio offensive line can block well enough for Tettleton to consistently exploit the ECU secondary to score a bunch. This all seems to line up decently to me for the under ...
1. Team that likes to pass the ball plans on passing less than normal
2. Team that likes to pass the ball faces a defense that defends the pass better than the run
3. Ohio struggling up front in pass protection but ECU vulnerable in the back .. it should make for some conversions here and there but also make it hard for Ohio to sustain long drives.
4. Team that rates to score the most can't run it well and that makes for tough situations when goal to go.
5. 14 point favorite that likes to pass rates to have a lead late and control the clock with conservative play calling late.
Only 10 of 24 games these two teams have played have gone over this total in regulation this year. While I do account for recency where the over has been more prominent for the two clubs, I like the situation. I also like the fact that ECU has missed 9 FG's on the year for those drives that do bog down.
Not sure why ECU would be particularly motivated for this game playing against a team that has gotten blown out in recent weeks on national TV after blowing their game against Marshall for the CUSA title. There is obviously the scenario where Ohio looks like they have quit like late in the year and they just got their doors blown off and ECU goes off for 56 points. I don't blame anyone who is taking ECU based on the numbers alone ... but it feels wrong to me for some reason....
While I think the game does start slowish, I am going with full game under because I like the dynamic of ECU playing from the lead in the fourth quarter.
going under the total
Ohio struggled down the stretch blocking up front at the offensive line. Tettleton had no time to pass at all and the running game was not what it had been. Some may think it was rectified in the UMASS game and it certainly improved but they still only had 460 yards or so that game and two of the TD's in their 51 point burst were interception returns for TD's. Ohio ranked 29 against the pass this year giving up 212 yards per game but that is deceiving because of opponents faced. They were somewhere around 83rd in yards per pass attempt against. With that said, they played decent pass defense on the average and did have 14 interceptions. Obviously, I expect Carden and company to do more damage than that here. While not quite as bad as their numbers show ( again style of opponents that benefitted their pass D numbers ) on rushing defense, the Bobcats can be had somewhat on the ground. The problem there is that ECU ( As I mentioned early in the year ) can't run block well. I think this lines up decently because ECU will have slightly more success running than they are accustomed to, Ruffin has said in an interview I listened to that they might run more than usual this game and be slightly more balanced, and that may mean less plays in the game than a normal ecu affair. One of my worries with Washington State against CSU was the fact they couldn't run the ball and that this often makes for struggles near the goal line .. the worry didn't come to fruition as they just passed it in with ease all day but that same worry applies to ECU. East Carolina is shockingly 15th in the nation against the run this year and while that is skewed by ease of schedule and style of opponent, their run defense has looked solid to my naked eye and should do well here against ohio. Where ECU is obviously weaker is defending the pass but I don't think that the Ohio offensive line can block well enough for Tettleton to consistently exploit the ECU secondary to score a bunch. This all seems to line up decently to me for the under ...
1. Team that likes to pass the ball plans on passing less than normal
2. Team that likes to pass the ball faces a defense that defends the pass better than the run
3. Ohio struggling up front in pass protection but ECU vulnerable in the back .. it should make for some conversions here and there but also make it hard for Ohio to sustain long drives.
4. Team that rates to score the most can't run it well and that makes for tough situations when goal to go.
5. 14 point favorite that likes to pass rates to have a lead late and control the clock with conservative play calling late.
Only 10 of 24 games these two teams have played have gone over this total in regulation this year. While I do account for recency where the over has been more prominent for the two clubs, I like the situation. I also like the fact that ECU has missed 9 FG's on the year for those drives that do bog down.
Not sure why ECU would be particularly motivated for this game playing against a team that has gotten blown out in recent weeks on national TV after blowing their game against Marshall for the CUSA title. There is obviously the scenario where Ohio looks like they have quit like late in the year and they just got their doors blown off and ECU goes off for 56 points. I don't blame anyone who is taking ECU based on the numbers alone ... but it feels wrong to me for some reason....
While I think the game does start slowish, I am going with full game under because I like the dynamic of ECU playing from the lead in the fourth quarter.
going under the total
T
tipyerbartender1
Guest
Lot of good thoughts for less than a normal unit. Might do the under instead of the side too. Thanks, cc, and safe travels.
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Good shit clown
I hope that under cashes for you just pay off for the time you put in.
GL K :shake:
I hope that under cashes for you just pay off for the time you put in.
GL K :shake:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Quick thoughts on Hawaii bowl....
In 2007, Oregon State had the best rushing defense (statistically) in the nation ... In 2010, Boise State had the 7th best rushing defense ( statistically ) in the nation ... Well boys and girls, this isn't your big brother's orst or bsu defenses this year. When looking at teams playing against Oregon state, you obviously have to ask whether they rate to defend the pass or not. Boise state ranked 92nd in the nation against the pass this year at 248.4 yds per game, while allowing 7.1 yards per attempt ( 63rd ) and a 64.1 completion percentage ( 103rd ). They have played some decent passing teams but also faced two option attacks this year, so while I want to say they are more just slightly below average, I am not 100% sure that is the case ,,,,, they might be bad. What they are decent at is getting pressure on the QB and generating sacks but when they fail to do that when bringing extra men, they are getting burned for big plays on the back end. Mannion to Cooks has been a deadly combo and when boise state faced a similar level wr in the form of fresno state's Adams they gave up 12 receptions and 110 yards to the young man. And the thing here is that their heart and soul head coach has moved on to Washington, their interim coach has already sent home qb southwick amidst controversy and they are already dealing with distractions that come with playing in Hawaii. There is no way they are schematically fixing their problems against the pass in time for this game. Beavers can give up sacks at times though and those negative plays coupled with mannion occasionally throwing picks are really the broncos best shot at stopping Oregon state. Meanwhile the broncos will likely attack the beavers weakish run defense with Jay Ajayi. Hedrick has been decent at qb and he can run a little himself. So I think boise gets some points here in this game against the beavs but at the end of the day we have a good match up for or st , riley vs an interim head coach ( Harsin already hired ), and a ton of distractions for boise state ... bsu was legitimately good for a long time ( several in the nfl ) and that is why Petersen ( amongst some family reasons ) never left despite being sought after but he leaves now because the same talent just isn't on their club right now. Oregon State had some lingering bad blood after their loss at Boise state back in 2010 and I think the coaching staff wants this one. This was a relatively easy bet ( the side anyway ) to make despite beavers late season collapse. Perfect weather with no wind .....
beavers and over the posted total
In 2007, Oregon State had the best rushing defense (statistically) in the nation ... In 2010, Boise State had the 7th best rushing defense ( statistically ) in the nation ... Well boys and girls, this isn't your big brother's orst or bsu defenses this year. When looking at teams playing against Oregon state, you obviously have to ask whether they rate to defend the pass or not. Boise state ranked 92nd in the nation against the pass this year at 248.4 yds per game, while allowing 7.1 yards per attempt ( 63rd ) and a 64.1 completion percentage ( 103rd ). They have played some decent passing teams but also faced two option attacks this year, so while I want to say they are more just slightly below average, I am not 100% sure that is the case ,,,,, they might be bad. What they are decent at is getting pressure on the QB and generating sacks but when they fail to do that when bringing extra men, they are getting burned for big plays on the back end. Mannion to Cooks has been a deadly combo and when boise state faced a similar level wr in the form of fresno state's Adams they gave up 12 receptions and 110 yards to the young man. And the thing here is that their heart and soul head coach has moved on to Washington, their interim coach has already sent home qb southwick amidst controversy and they are already dealing with distractions that come with playing in Hawaii. There is no way they are schematically fixing their problems against the pass in time for this game. Beavers can give up sacks at times though and those negative plays coupled with mannion occasionally throwing picks are really the broncos best shot at stopping Oregon state. Meanwhile the broncos will likely attack the beavers weakish run defense with Jay Ajayi. Hedrick has been decent at qb and he can run a little himself. So I think boise gets some points here in this game against the beavs but at the end of the day we have a good match up for or st , riley vs an interim head coach ( Harsin already hired ), and a ton of distractions for boise state ... bsu was legitimately good for a long time ( several in the nfl ) and that is why Petersen ( amongst some family reasons ) never left despite being sought after but he leaves now because the same talent just isn't on their club right now. Oregon State had some lingering bad blood after their loss at Boise state back in 2010 and I think the coaching staff wants this one. This was a relatively easy bet ( the side anyway ) to make despite beavers late season collapse. Perfect weather with no wind .....
beavers and over the posted total
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I saw Devin Streeter has been made doubtful. Im on Pitt too so was a bit disappointed.
KowboyKarl
Live. Breathe. Blue.
Utags under looks good... Buena suerte, senor. :shake:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Little caesar’s bowl
Pittsburgh vs Bowling Green
Controlled environment. Familiarity of venue for bg.
Motivation – Lots going on here …. Pittsburgh looking for a win to have a winning season, Chryst is looking for a bowl win, and the Pitt players haven’t won a bowl since the 2010 27-10 compass bowl victory over Kentucky. They are dogged to bowling green ( and rightfully so ) and that is humbling to a program as rich in tradition as Pitt is. You would think they have some level of motivation but it is sketchy at best. Meanwhile, the bowling green motivation is even tougher to figure out. They lost their head coach to Wake Forest and their end of season reward for winning the MAC championship in Detroit is to go back to Detroit to play Pittsburgh. How many BG players or fans can really be up for a return trip to Detroit at Christmas time? They are gunning for a bowl win and redemption after playing well but losing to SJSU in last years bowl game. These kids haven’t gotten a bowl win and have one quality win this season so defeating Pittsburgh has to be appealing to them on some level. But one wonders how focused they can be with their coach departing. It is very hard to figure out the motivational angles in my opinion. BG QB Johnson was a PA high school star and Pitt didn’t give him a look so you have to wonder if he has a chip on his shoulder about that ….
Coaching – Clawson gone and special teams coach Adam Scheieris in as the interim coach ( EIU coach hired by bg so true interim ). That is a lot of distraction. Chryst has done a decent job as the Panther coach and obviously Pitt has a significant edge in this regard all things considered.
Strength of Schedule/conference
One has to fear for the MAC after watching Rocky Long and the Aztecs dismantle the Buffalo Bulls. This game has one of the more striking disparities in strength of opponents faced. Pitt played one of the 20 toughest schedules in all of cfb and bgsu played one of the 20 easiest schedules in all of cfb. Let’s give credit to BG for being 3-1 vs. bowl teams this season but keep in mind one of those wins was against buffalo and one of them was against Ohio who both lost by dd in their bowl game ( though ohio final score deceiving ). Their loss was a 1 point defeat toMississippi State. Their lone quality win was against NIU in the MAC championship game ( thus sparing us watching NIU getting destroyed in a bcs game ). Conversely, Pittsburgh played against NINE bowl teams, going 3-6 in those games with quality wins over duke , notre dame and Syracuse. One of their losses was to the second best team in the nation in the season opener and other than that game Pitt has not lost by more than 11 points. In otherwords, they have competed in every game they have played and were one of themore competitive teams against fsu. Hard to think they just lay down here.
BG offense vs pitt defense
Bg defenses faced:
Tulsa 96[SUP]th, [/SUP] 430 avg, bg 396
Kent 74[SUP]th, [/SUP] 410 avg, bg 576
Indiana 123[SUP]rd[/SUP], 523 avg 409
Akron 59[SUP]th[/SUP], 397 avg, bg 396
Umass 99[SUP]th[/SUP],433 avg, bg 448
Miss st 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] 366 avg, bg 384
Toledo 88[SUP]th[/SUP] 422 avg, bg 343
Miami oh 115[SUP]th[/SUP], 484 avg, bg 447
Ohio 68[SUP]th[/SUP], 406 avg, bg 460
Emu 120[SUP]th[/SUP], 511 avg, bg 560
Buffalo 51[SUP]st[/SUP], 383 avg, bg 574
Niu 91[SUP]st[/SUP] 424 avg, bg 574
It is clear that BG has played against a lot of bad defenses this year but it is also clear that they are peaking offensively, which makes sense with Johnson progressing at qb. They played three teams who were ranked in the top 50% in total defense this year and scored 31, 20 and 24 respectively in those games. In two of those three games Bowling Green held their opponent to under 300 yards and the other ( miss st ) to the low 400’s. This is important to me when analyzing this game because they averaged just 25 points in those games despite playing great defense. When you hold teams to under 300 yards, you are setting yourself up to succeed offensively. Yet against these teams with half decent defenses, BG succeeded defensively and still struggled offensively to light up the scoreboard. Only Mississippi State has a better defense than what Pittsburgh is putting out there on the field on the 26[SUP]th[/SUP]. They rank 42[SUP]nd[/SUP] and after you adjust for schedules faced, the Pitt defense is relatively on par with what BG has. Pitt also has something that BG rarely ( If ever) faces in conference and that is an elite defensive lineman. The Panthers Aaron Donald was second in the nation in tackles, first in the nation in tackles for loss ( by wide margin ), 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in sacks, 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in fumbles forced and is simply a beast. He did this while playing at least 7 offenses that I rate as better than BG. I don’t think BG has an answer for him.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense is ranked 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation so it must be really good, right? Wrong. The ranking is very deceiving in my opinion. The Panthers played not one, not two, but three option teams this year which grotesquely skews their ypg allowed through the air stats. They actually gave up 7.1 yards per attempt and I think if you look at it as a whole you will find it is an average pass D rather than top 30. With that said, they held quite a few opponents under their season average. BG has a decent QB and senior Shaun Joplin has emerged as their best receiver.
But the best offensive weapon for bowling green is RB TravisGreene. He averages almost 120 yard a game and they give him about 20 attempts per game. BG ranks in the low thirties in total rushing and Pitt is just 60[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing defense so we expect bg to be able to run here, right? Wrong … just like the pass defense numbers were skewed for having faced three option teams, so are the rushing defense numbers. I think I could fairly easily argue that while the raw numbers show Pitt has a better pass defense ( 29[SUP]th[/SUP] ) than rush defense ( 60[SUP]th[/SUP] ) that the exact opposite is true. They faced three of the top 7 rushing teams in the nation and also faced the fsu rushing attack.
Fsu avg 207, 156 vs pitt ++<o></o>
New mexico avg 308, 213 vs pitt ++<o></o>
Duke avg 173, 213 vs pitt -<o></o>
Uva avg156,, 65 vs pitt ++<o></o>
Vt avg 118. 93 vs pitt +<o></o>
Odu avg 132, 93 vs pitt +<o></o>
Navy 322, 220 vs pitt++<o></o>
Gt avg 311, 276 vs pitt +<o></o>
Ndame avg 149, 138 vs pitt +<o></o>
Unc avg 146, 149 vs pitt -<o></o>
Syracuse avg 194, 148 vs pitt +<o></o>
Mia fl avg 172, 180 vs pitt –<o></o>
Note that Pitt performed way above average against the rushing attacks they faced. Incidentally, 73 of the Miami fl rushing yards came on a wide receiver semi-trick play rush for a TD ( A Game wr Coley single handedly won for Miami). I would expect Pitt to shut down the rushing game this game and if bg can’t make plays in the passing game they will truly struggle
When Pitt has the ball vs bg defense ….
BG plays good defense but when I have watched them, they have looked more vulnerable vs the pass than the run. Pitt has two quality receivers in tyler boyd and Devin Street. Boyd led all freshmen in the nation with 77 catches this year, While Street was their big play player. Street has been downgraded to doubtful (donbest ) fighting a bad elbow. If healthy the duo present the best tandem bg would face all year. QB Savage is a senior and while I am not a huge fan of the kid he did have a solid seasonand this will be his last collegiate game. Their rushing attack has traditionally been their strength but they have been incapable of mustering quality games on the ground. BG only gives up about 142 a game on the ground and just 4.3 yards per carry and I have a hard time seeing Pitt get that many on the ground. If Street does not play it hurts in multiple ways … Most teams have put their best cover guy on Street and that is one of the reasons for Boyd’s success and no Street may mean more rushing attempts which I just don’t think will work here.
Special teams
If there is one area of concern for me as someone who is on both side and total under in this game it is the special teams…. Pitt has one of the worst punt coverage teams in the nation. They allowed 3 returns for td and they rate to punt a lot this game. Meanwhile BG has excellent punt coverage. While it is certainly not a favorite for BG to return one for a huge gain or td, it certainly won’t be a shock. While I prefer the Pitt kicker, both have had good years and FG kicking can play a big role in a low totaled game. I will hold my breath on special teams plays all game long.
Overview
I really envision a game dominated by defense. I think the game is close throughout and is a one possession game late. Neither team rates to run the ball well in my estimation and that leads me to wonder where the big plays come from in the passing game. The interceptions created by both defenses and thrown by both QB’s are about the same but I think Pitt has the better talent on the outside for big gainers, have the stud to force a fumble or create negative plays with AaronDonald on defense, have their regular coach in for continuity and have a senior qb playing against a sophomore qb. BG’s big game was against niu in the MAC championship and a return trip to Detroit against Pitt just doesn’t seem to be something to get excited about where as Pitt needs the win to have a winning season and may feel slighted being a significant dog to a MAC school. I also think that we have a situation with a plateaued team in BG. They are what they are … the time off can help Johnson progress some but the extra practices rate to help Pitt MUCH more than BG and even more so with Clawson leaving BG for the Wake job. Seems to line up as a spot where the dog can bark and bite. Both teams play at an extremely slow pace for modern football and the BG side with the coaching change may be even slower as far as time between snaps goes. I see a 23-20 type game. BG is 0-2 in close games and Pitt has played in a ton of close games this year so there might be a hidden edge for Pitt in that regard.
The plays pitt and under the posted total
Pittsburgh vs Bowling Green
Controlled environment. Familiarity of venue for bg.
Motivation – Lots going on here …. Pittsburgh looking for a win to have a winning season, Chryst is looking for a bowl win, and the Pitt players haven’t won a bowl since the 2010 27-10 compass bowl victory over Kentucky. They are dogged to bowling green ( and rightfully so ) and that is humbling to a program as rich in tradition as Pitt is. You would think they have some level of motivation but it is sketchy at best. Meanwhile, the bowling green motivation is even tougher to figure out. They lost their head coach to Wake Forest and their end of season reward for winning the MAC championship in Detroit is to go back to Detroit to play Pittsburgh. How many BG players or fans can really be up for a return trip to Detroit at Christmas time? They are gunning for a bowl win and redemption after playing well but losing to SJSU in last years bowl game. These kids haven’t gotten a bowl win and have one quality win this season so defeating Pittsburgh has to be appealing to them on some level. But one wonders how focused they can be with their coach departing. It is very hard to figure out the motivational angles in my opinion. BG QB Johnson was a PA high school star and Pitt didn’t give him a look so you have to wonder if he has a chip on his shoulder about that ….
Coaching – Clawson gone and special teams coach Adam Scheieris in as the interim coach ( EIU coach hired by bg so true interim ). That is a lot of distraction. Chryst has done a decent job as the Panther coach and obviously Pitt has a significant edge in this regard all things considered.
Strength of Schedule/conference
One has to fear for the MAC after watching Rocky Long and the Aztecs dismantle the Buffalo Bulls. This game has one of the more striking disparities in strength of opponents faced. Pitt played one of the 20 toughest schedules in all of cfb and bgsu played one of the 20 easiest schedules in all of cfb. Let’s give credit to BG for being 3-1 vs. bowl teams this season but keep in mind one of those wins was against buffalo and one of them was against Ohio who both lost by dd in their bowl game ( though ohio final score deceiving ). Their loss was a 1 point defeat toMississippi State. Their lone quality win was against NIU in the MAC championship game ( thus sparing us watching NIU getting destroyed in a bcs game ). Conversely, Pittsburgh played against NINE bowl teams, going 3-6 in those games with quality wins over duke , notre dame and Syracuse. One of their losses was to the second best team in the nation in the season opener and other than that game Pitt has not lost by more than 11 points. In otherwords, they have competed in every game they have played and were one of themore competitive teams against fsu. Hard to think they just lay down here.
BG offense vs pitt defense
Bg defenses faced:
Tulsa 96[SUP]th, [/SUP] 430 avg, bg 396
Kent 74[SUP]th, [/SUP] 410 avg, bg 576
Indiana 123[SUP]rd[/SUP], 523 avg 409
Akron 59[SUP]th[/SUP], 397 avg, bg 396
Umass 99[SUP]th[/SUP],433 avg, bg 448
Miss st 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] 366 avg, bg 384
Toledo 88[SUP]th[/SUP] 422 avg, bg 343
Miami oh 115[SUP]th[/SUP], 484 avg, bg 447
Ohio 68[SUP]th[/SUP], 406 avg, bg 460
Emu 120[SUP]th[/SUP], 511 avg, bg 560
Buffalo 51[SUP]st[/SUP], 383 avg, bg 574
Niu 91[SUP]st[/SUP] 424 avg, bg 574
It is clear that BG has played against a lot of bad defenses this year but it is also clear that they are peaking offensively, which makes sense with Johnson progressing at qb. They played three teams who were ranked in the top 50% in total defense this year and scored 31, 20 and 24 respectively in those games. In two of those three games Bowling Green held their opponent to under 300 yards and the other ( miss st ) to the low 400’s. This is important to me when analyzing this game because they averaged just 25 points in those games despite playing great defense. When you hold teams to under 300 yards, you are setting yourself up to succeed offensively. Yet against these teams with half decent defenses, BG succeeded defensively and still struggled offensively to light up the scoreboard. Only Mississippi State has a better defense than what Pittsburgh is putting out there on the field on the 26[SUP]th[/SUP]. They rank 42[SUP]nd[/SUP] and after you adjust for schedules faced, the Pitt defense is relatively on par with what BG has. Pitt also has something that BG rarely ( If ever) faces in conference and that is an elite defensive lineman. The Panthers Aaron Donald was second in the nation in tackles, first in the nation in tackles for loss ( by wide margin ), 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in sacks, 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in fumbles forced and is simply a beast. He did this while playing at least 7 offenses that I rate as better than BG. I don’t think BG has an answer for him.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense is ranked 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation so it must be really good, right? Wrong. The ranking is very deceiving in my opinion. The Panthers played not one, not two, but three option teams this year which grotesquely skews their ypg allowed through the air stats. They actually gave up 7.1 yards per attempt and I think if you look at it as a whole you will find it is an average pass D rather than top 30. With that said, they held quite a few opponents under their season average. BG has a decent QB and senior Shaun Joplin has emerged as their best receiver.
But the best offensive weapon for bowling green is RB TravisGreene. He averages almost 120 yard a game and they give him about 20 attempts per game. BG ranks in the low thirties in total rushing and Pitt is just 60[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing defense so we expect bg to be able to run here, right? Wrong … just like the pass defense numbers were skewed for having faced three option teams, so are the rushing defense numbers. I think I could fairly easily argue that while the raw numbers show Pitt has a better pass defense ( 29[SUP]th[/SUP] ) than rush defense ( 60[SUP]th[/SUP] ) that the exact opposite is true. They faced three of the top 7 rushing teams in the nation and also faced the fsu rushing attack.
Fsu avg 207, 156 vs pitt ++<o
></o>New mexico avg 308, 213 vs pitt ++<o
></o>Duke avg 173, 213 vs pitt -<o
></o>Uva avg156,, 65 vs pitt ++<o
></o>Vt avg 118. 93 vs pitt +<o
></o>Odu avg 132, 93 vs pitt +<o
></o>Navy 322, 220 vs pitt++<o
></o>Gt avg 311, 276 vs pitt +<o
></o>Ndame avg 149, 138 vs pitt +<o
></o>Unc avg 146, 149 vs pitt -<o
></o>Syracuse avg 194, 148 vs pitt +<o
></o>Mia fl avg 172, 180 vs pitt –<o
></o>Note that Pitt performed way above average against the rushing attacks they faced. Incidentally, 73 of the Miami fl rushing yards came on a wide receiver semi-trick play rush for a TD ( A Game wr Coley single handedly won for Miami). I would expect Pitt to shut down the rushing game this game and if bg can’t make plays in the passing game they will truly struggle
When Pitt has the ball vs bg defense ….
BG plays good defense but when I have watched them, they have looked more vulnerable vs the pass than the run. Pitt has two quality receivers in tyler boyd and Devin Street. Boyd led all freshmen in the nation with 77 catches this year, While Street was their big play player. Street has been downgraded to doubtful (donbest ) fighting a bad elbow. If healthy the duo present the best tandem bg would face all year. QB Savage is a senior and while I am not a huge fan of the kid he did have a solid seasonand this will be his last collegiate game. Their rushing attack has traditionally been their strength but they have been incapable of mustering quality games on the ground. BG only gives up about 142 a game on the ground and just 4.3 yards per carry and I have a hard time seeing Pitt get that many on the ground. If Street does not play it hurts in multiple ways … Most teams have put their best cover guy on Street and that is one of the reasons for Boyd’s success and no Street may mean more rushing attempts which I just don’t think will work here.
Special teams
If there is one area of concern for me as someone who is on both side and total under in this game it is the special teams…. Pitt has one of the worst punt coverage teams in the nation. They allowed 3 returns for td and they rate to punt a lot this game. Meanwhile BG has excellent punt coverage. While it is certainly not a favorite for BG to return one for a huge gain or td, it certainly won’t be a shock. While I prefer the Pitt kicker, both have had good years and FG kicking can play a big role in a low totaled game. I will hold my breath on special teams plays all game long.
Overview
I really envision a game dominated by defense. I think the game is close throughout and is a one possession game late. Neither team rates to run the ball well in my estimation and that leads me to wonder where the big plays come from in the passing game. The interceptions created by both defenses and thrown by both QB’s are about the same but I think Pitt has the better talent on the outside for big gainers, have the stud to force a fumble or create negative plays with AaronDonald on defense, have their regular coach in for continuity and have a senior qb playing against a sophomore qb. BG’s big game was against niu in the MAC championship and a return trip to Detroit against Pitt just doesn’t seem to be something to get excited about where as Pitt needs the win to have a winning season and may feel slighted being a significant dog to a MAC school. I also think that we have a situation with a plateaued team in BG. They are what they are … the time off can help Johnson progress some but the extra practices rate to help Pitt MUCH more than BG and even more so with Clawson leaving BG for the Wake job. Seems to line up as a spot where the dog can bark and bite. Both teams play at an extremely slow pace for modern football and the BG side with the coaching change may be even slower as far as time between snaps goes. I see a 23-20 type game. BG is 0-2 in close games and Pitt has played in a ton of close games this year so there might be a hidden edge for Pitt in that regard.
The plays pitt and under the posted total
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have a real problem with the Rose Bowl now .. .. MSU suspending the on-the-field-coach at linebacker not only hurts but devastates both side and total. I can bail on the total easy enough ( and pray it lands 42 or 43 ) but the side has moved 1.5 against me already and will probably get worse. I am not a fan of the "polish middle" nor can I lay the -225 or so on the Stanford ml to get off this thing but I can at least tell you not to tail it if you were otherwise inclined to and hadn't yet.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I won't get into detail but the reason I like the under in the Utah state vs niu game is because of my two basic questions and answers....
What does a team like to do on offense?
Can the opponent defend it?
In the case of NIU offense, they are primarily a running football team. I think I have shown a few times how bad MAC rushing defenses are on the whole already this bowl season so won't again ... but NIU hasn't faced a rush defense as good as Utah states all year and they failed to reach 200 against two of the better rush defenses they did play against ( iowa and bowling green ). Utah state has a solid defensive line and linebacking group and Lynch will be required to pass from behind the chains more than he is used to. These Utah state kids have also spent the last few years practicing against Chuckie Keeton ( out for year ) who is similar in style to Lynch and I think that helps them here. Meanwhile, everyone has seen how bad NIU has been defensively this year but what many fail to realize is that it has largely been their pass defense. Their rushing defense has only been giving up 150 a game at 3.87 yards per carry. And the thing is, since usu lost their starting qb for the year, they also lost their passing game. They have thrown for 300 or more just once since that injury despite playing a "who's who" of bad MW conference pass defenses. So what I see is a game with two rushing teams trying to run into the strength of the opposing defense which should make both passing games struggle a bit more than normal too because their down and distance situations won't be as good as they are used to. Makes for a running clock and even scoring drives should take some plays. There is one glaring weakness on the field in the form of the niu pass D but it just doesn't look all that exploitable by Utah state. And when drives do bog down I have a pair of fg units that have combined to miss 19 fg's this year.
I have a strange feeling about this game ,.... I could make a case by the numbers to take Utah state but my instinct is telling me lynch might find a way to will a victory here and I think this could be a game where the stupid money takes the smart money. Just a feeling .. I won't be surprised if the better team ( Utah st ) wins, of course.
the play is under the posted total and please run a lot so I can enjoy my brand of football.
What does a team like to do on offense?
Can the opponent defend it?
In the case of NIU offense, they are primarily a running football team. I think I have shown a few times how bad MAC rushing defenses are on the whole already this bowl season so won't again ... but NIU hasn't faced a rush defense as good as Utah states all year and they failed to reach 200 against two of the better rush defenses they did play against ( iowa and bowling green ). Utah state has a solid defensive line and linebacking group and Lynch will be required to pass from behind the chains more than he is used to. These Utah state kids have also spent the last few years practicing against Chuckie Keeton ( out for year ) who is similar in style to Lynch and I think that helps them here. Meanwhile, everyone has seen how bad NIU has been defensively this year but what many fail to realize is that it has largely been their pass defense. Their rushing defense has only been giving up 150 a game at 3.87 yards per carry. And the thing is, since usu lost their starting qb for the year, they also lost their passing game. They have thrown for 300 or more just once since that injury despite playing a "who's who" of bad MW conference pass defenses. So what I see is a game with two rushing teams trying to run into the strength of the opposing defense which should make both passing games struggle a bit more than normal too because their down and distance situations won't be as good as they are used to. Makes for a running clock and even scoring drives should take some plays. There is one glaring weakness on the field in the form of the niu pass D but it just doesn't look all that exploitable by Utah state. And when drives do bog down I have a pair of fg units that have combined to miss 19 fg's this year.
I have a strange feeling about this game ,.... I could make a case by the numbers to take Utah state but my instinct is telling me lynch might find a way to will a victory here and I think this could be a game where the stupid money takes the smart money. Just a feeling .. I won't be surprised if the better team ( Utah st ) wins, of course.
the play is under the posted total and please run a lot so I can enjoy my brand of football.
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Thanks for write-ups K,appreciated :shake:
Pitt upto 6.5 here now,when a star player goes down,often the market over reacts and the other players step up knowing one of their better players isnt there.
GL mate :shake:
Pitt upto 6.5 here now,when a star player goes down,often the market over reacts and the other players step up knowing one of their better players isnt there.
GL mate :shake:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
yup .. not a good sign for a game day move of that size. I suppose bg money had little reason to get involved until late, throw in Street deal and probably a big bettor and we have a big move.
I just wish I could trade my number for the current .. I am pretty confident in my overall view of the game 23-20 for one of them ...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
let's hope so ... like I mentioned, pitt is the team most likely to have improved over more practices.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
thanks jimmy
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