time to post my 2015-2016 Bowls so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
I stole the format from Dwights thread. I like it better than what I was doing and by copying and pasting I don't have to type it all out.
updated Bowl Season Record 36-29

Army vs Navy
Plays for this game: 1h under 25.5 LOSER
0-1

Arizona vs New Mexico
Plays for this game: Arizona -9 & over 64.5 (thoughts post 52)
Game results 1-1
Bowl Season 1-2

BYU vs Utah
Plays for this game: Utah -2.5 -115 & under 52.5 (thoughts post 54)
Game results 1-1
Bowl season 2-3

Ohio vs Appalachian St
Plays for this game: Under 55 (thoughts post 53) & 2h app st -6.5 -120
Game Results 1-1
Bowl Season 3-4

SJSU vs GA St
Plays for this game: Georgia State ML +130
game results 0-1
Bowl Season 3-5

Arkansas St vs La Tech
Plays for this game: Arkansas State +2 (Thoughts post #51)
Game Results 0-1
Bowl Season 3-6

Western KY vs South Florida
Plays for this game: Western Kentucky -2 & over 66
Game Results 2-0
Bowl Season 5-6

Akron vs Utah St
Plays for this game: under 48.5 & Akron +7 -120
Game Results 2-0
Bowl Season 7-6

Toledo vs Temple
Plays for this game: Toledo +2
Game Results 1-0
Bowl Season 8-6

Boise vs Northern Illinois
Plays for this game: Under 56 & 2h under 27
game results 1-1
bowl season 9-7

GA Southern vs Bowling Green
Plays for this game: Georgia Southern 7.5 & Over 66 & 1h Under 32 & 2h over 33.5
game results 3-1
bowl season 12-8

MTSU vs Western Michigan
Plays for this game: Over 62.5 & 2h under 33
game results 1-1
bowl season 13-9

Cincinnati vs SDSU
Plays for this game: Sdsu/cin under 56.5 (thoughts post 113)
game results 1-0
bowl season 14-9

UCONN vs Marshall
Plays for this game: Under 44
game result 1-0
bowl season 15-9

Miami vs Washington St
Plays for this game: Washington State -2.5
game result 1-0
bowl season 16-9

Southern Miss vs Washington
Plays for this game: Washington -8.5 & over 55.5
game result 2-0
bowl season 18-9

Indiana vs Duke
Plays for this game: Indiana -1.5 Big & over 67
game result 1-1
bowl season 19-10

Tulsa vs Virginia Tech
Plays for this game: under 62 & 2h over 34
Game result 0-2
bowl season 19-12

Nebraska vs UCLA
Plays for this game: Nebraska +7 & over 61
game results 2-0
bowl season 21-12

Pittsburgh vs Navy
Plays for this game: under 56
game result 0-1
bowl season 21-13

CMU vs Minnesota
Plays for this game: Under 49.5
game result 1-0
bowl season 22-13


Air Force vs California
Plays for this game: over 67
game result 1-0
bowl season 23-13

Baylor vs UNC
Plays for this game: UNC +2
game result 0-1
bowl season 23-14

Nevada vs Colorado St
Plays for this game: Under 56
game result 1-0
bowl season 24-14


Texas Tech vs LSU
Plays for this game: LSU -7
game result 1-0
bowl season 25-14

Memphis vs Auburn
Plays for this game: over 63.5 & Memphis +3 & 2h under 29
game result 1-2
bowl season 26-16

NC State vs Mississippi St
Plays for this game: NC State +5
game result 0-1 Lol Brissett
bowl season 26-17

Louisville vs Texas A&M
Plays for this game: louisville pick and tamu 3.5
game result 1-1
bowl season 27-18

Wisconsin vs USC
Plays for this game: USC -3 & Under 50.5
game result 1-1
bowl season 28-19

Houston vs Florida St
Plays for this game: over 54
game results 1-0
bowl season 29-19

Michigan St vs Alabama
Plays for this game: Alabama -9.5
game results 1-0
bowl season 30-19

Clemson vs Oklahoma
Plays for this game: Over 66
game results 0-1
bowl season 30-20

Tennessee vs Northwestern
Plays for this game: Northwestern 8
game result 0-1
bowl season 30-21

Florida vs Michigan
Plays for this game: 2h under 21.5
game result 0-1
bowl season 30-22

Notre Dame vs Ohio St
Plays for this game: ND +7 -120 & over 54
game result 1-1
bowl season 31-23

Iowa vs Stanford
Plays for this game: UNDER 54.5
game result 0-1 (Thanks Shaw)
bowl season 31-24

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma St
Plays for this game: Ole Miss -6.5 Big
game result 1-0
bowl season 32-24

Penn St vs UGA
Plays for this game: Penn State 7 -120 & under 43
game result 1-0-1
bowl season 33-24-1

Kansas St vs Arkansas
Plays for this game: under 59.5 & 2h under 28 -115
game result 0-2
bowl season 33-26-1

TCU vs Oregon
Plays for this game: TCU/oregon Over 78 (thoughts post 112 but boykin since suspended) & 1h under 38
game result 2-0
bowl season 35-26-1

West Virginia vs Arizona St
Plays for this game: ASU -1 & under 66.5 & 2h over 33.5
game results 1-2
bowl season 36-28

College Football Championship Game
Alabama vs Clemson
Plays for this game: Under 53.5
bowl season 36-29

 
Last edited:
There's going to be some serious prep and focus by Ole Miss to try and make up for that bowl debacle last year against TCU. Thinking Freeze may have his team's full attention over the next few weeks. Okie State is a paper tiger.
 
Frank Costanza said:
There's going to be some serious prep and focus by Ole Miss to try and make up for that bowl debacle last year against TCU. Thinking Freeze may have his team's full attention over the next few weeks. Okie State is a paper tiger.
Click to expand...

Agree on all accounts. Plus compare the overall health of Ole Miss this year to last year. Only worry could be all those bad ass Jr's worried about the NFL Draft (Treadwell, Nkemdiche, Conner, Tunsil and Engram)
 
Thoughts on Oklahoma Clemson?

I am already on OKIE -3 but would like to know if you approve or not sir.
 
Frank Costanza said:
There's going to be some serious prep and focus by Ole Miss to try and make up for that bowl debacle last year against TCU. Thinking Freeze may have his team's full attention over the next few weeks. Okie State is a paper tiger.
Click to expand...


There is so much to like about it really .. from motivation, to superior talent, to matching up really well. Pretty sure this is a woodshed game .. in fact, while I could never line it that way, I think they win by over 20
 
gps_3 said:
Agree on all accounts. Plus compare the overall health of Ole Miss this year to last year. Only worry could be all those bad ass Jr's worried about the NFL Draft (Treadwell, Nkemdiche, Conner, Tunsil and Engram)
Click to expand...


it is a worry... the one year with Oklahoma where the WR just spent the whole game avoiding contact was fun to watch. So they are aware of things but in this case you also have some kids who need to prove they are durable too (Treadwell, Nkemdiche) for their draft status. I hope they are not that selfish. Team seems pretty tight.
 
Looking forward to reading thoughts on ASU. Would love to be talked off the Fightin' Ernie McCrackens. GL amigo.
 
With you on most of these.

USC is one I'm gonna have to really sit and think about. There bowl prep lately has been poor and they're no longer playing for Helton's contract.

But Stave is awful...so there's that.

clowncar said:
Adds'

Utah -2.5 -115
washington st -2.5
Indiana -1.5
usc -3
Bama -9.5
ASU -1
Click to expand...
 
CrimsonK said:
Looking forward to reading thoughts on ASU. Would love to be talked off the Fightin' Ernie McCrackens. GL amigo.
Click to expand...

I know who the character is but not sure I get what you mean by it.

Arizona State is one if my favorites and I will have a good writeup.
 
phife said:
With you on most of these.

USC is one I'm gonna have to really sit and think about. There bowl prep lately has been poor and they're no longer playing for Helton's contract.

But Stave is awful...so there's that.
Click to expand...

Similar ability on defense....
 
clowncar said:
I know who the character is but not sure I get what you mean by it.

Arizona State is one if my favorites and I will have a good writeup.
Click to expand...

Holgorsen looks like Ernie to me when he gets that crazy windswept hair look. Look forward to reading it
 
TheGarfather said:
If you don't like ASU, just play the under. That total at 63.5 is one of the best bets still on the board.
Click to expand...

My numbers show a little bit of value on the Under, but the tempo of both offenses makes it a dangerous proposition. West Virginia was statistically crushing KSU at the half, it took every bit of Snyder Magic for KSU to pull out that win.
 
Some plays

Georgia Southern 7.5
Georgia Southern/Bowling green over 66
MTSU Wmich over 62.5
uconn marshall under 44
indiana duke over 67
cmich/minny under 49.5
nevada/csu under 56
LSU -7
Notre Dame +7 -120
Notre Dame Ohio State over 54
Penn State +7 -120
WVU ASU under 66.5

All currently available numbers
 
Math question for you:

Clemson is +165 to beat Oklahoma

Making some assumptions for the championship, should they win:

Clemson +185 against Alabama
Clemson -185 against Michigan State

Right now Clemson is +537 on BM to win the championship. Am I calculating odds incorrectly in saying that +537 presents value considering taking them independently on the ML would each game would return +350, if they win and Bama win? I feel like I may be missing something because it would almost be like a parlay in terms of needing to win both to turn a profit while taking them independently you could split and win, albeit a much smaller return.
 
Frank Costanza said:
There's going to be some serious prep and focus by Ole Miss to try and make up for that bowl debacle last year against TCU. Thinking Freeze may have his team's full attention over the next few weeks. Okie State is a paper tiger.
Click to expand...

Last year's Ole Miss team was absolutely decimated by injuries. The team that played TCU was only shell of itself. I like the -6.5 play.
 
CrimsonK said:
Math question for you:

Clemson is +165 to beat Oklahoma

Making some assumptions for the championship, should they win:

Clemson +185 against Alabama
Clemson -185 against Michigan State

Right now Clemson is +537 on BM to win the championship. Am I calculating odds incorrectly in saying that +537 presents value considering taking them independently on the ML would each game would return +350, if they win and Bama win? I feel like I may be missing something because it would almost be like a parlay in terms of needing to win both to turn a profit while taking them independently you could split and win, albeit a much smaller return.
Click to expand...

It's the difference between hitting a straight bet and hitting a 2-team parlay.
 
CrimsonK said:
Math question for you:

Clemson is +165 to beat Oklahoma

Making some assumptions for the championship, should they win:

Clemson +185 against Alabama
Clemson -185 against Michigan State

Right now Clemson is +537 on BM to win the championship. Am I calculating odds incorrectly in saying that +537 presents value considering taking them independently on the ML would each game would return +350, if they win and Bama win? I feel like I may be missing something because it would almost be like a parlay in terms of needing to win both to turn a profit while taking them independently you could split and win, albeit a much smaller return.
Click to expand...

If the game was today, Clemson would be about -3 vs Mich State, +5.5 vs Bama
 
Jimmydafreak said:
It's the difference between hitting a straight bet and hitting a 2-team parlay.
Click to expand...

But if you're betting now on a team to win the title, you are essentially hitting a 2 team parlay. The +537 is presenting some value for sure. The ML on the Bama/Clem matchup would have to be +370 or better to get the same value as betting Clem to win it all now is presenting. And if they somehow ended up facing MSU, you'd be sitting very pretty with plus money on Clem who would be the favorite.
 
Lareux said:
But if you're betting now on a team to win the title, you are essentially hitting a 2 team parlay. The +537 is presenting some value for sure. The ML on the Bama/Clem matchup would have to be +370 or better to get the same value as betting Clem to win it all now is presenting. And if they somehow ended up facing MSU, you'd be sitting very pretty with plus money on Clem who would be the favorite.
Click to expand...

show your work
 
cubsker said:
show your work
Click to expand...

Haha. I was just about to post again (and show the work that proved Jimmy right)...I did just work it out and realized that the difference in winning the first Clem bet and then losing the Clem bet vs Bama/MSU is pretty much 5.37 to 1. You would win $65 if they went 1-1, or only win +350ish if you bet both games independently. I was using the hypothetical ML that he posted, so it may vary a bit, but it'll be close enough to the 5.37 to 1 either way.

So there is value really only if they face MSU in the final. Math is fun.
 
clowncar said:
Tough loss to start bowl season but an incredible experience going to that game.
Click to expand...
That's great that you got to attend. Incredible atmosphere, pageantry and pride at the Army/Navy games. I have been fortunate to attend quite a few over the years, and they never fail to impress me. I actually didn't get to see a play of the game this year as I was attending a funeral/wake. Prob the first time I can ever remember not seeing Army/Navy. BOL on the bowl season.
 
ADD

Arizona -9
Arizona/unm over 64.5
Pitt/Navy under 56
Western Kentucky -2
Western Kentucky/USF over 66
Washington -8.5
Washington/usm over 55.5
Tulsa/VT under 62
Memphis/Auburn over 63.5
ville pick
houston/fsu over 54
ou/clemson over 66
nwestern 8
kstate/ark under 59.5
 
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