Time to get on the Road to the Derby

Gandolf

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Super Ninety Nine's romp in the slop at Oaklawn yesterday in the Southwest Stakes completed what's known as the prep season (10 points for winners) for determining the Kentucky Derby field. Now its time to start paying attention!

With a points system in place this year everything has changed regarding how the Derby field is constructed. Gone are the days of graded stakes earnings; the automatic spots that would have gone to the winners of the big 2 year old races have been eliminated. So Breeder's Cup champ Shanghai Bobby, Delta Jackpot winner Goldencents and Cashcall Futurity winner Violence, who normally would already have earned enough $ to guarantee a spot at Churchill, now have to perform well as 3 years in order to move on.

The points per race now jump up dramatically this weekend with the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star Stakes. Where we were working with 10-4-2-1 for the top four, now we start having 50-20-10-5 races. Why is this important? Look at the current standings:

[TABLE="class: ckeditor-styled-table, width: 100%"]
<THEAD>[TR]
[TH="width: 5%"]Rank[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%"]Horse[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%"]Trainer[/TH]
[TH="width: 10%"]Points[/TH]
[TH="width: 25%"]Non-restricted Stakes Earnings[/TH]
[/TR]
</THEAD><TBODY>[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Shanghai Bobby[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]$1,731,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Goldencents[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]$740,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Oxbow[/TD]
[TD]D. Wayne Lukas[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]$180,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Violence[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$495,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Itsmyluckyday[/TD]
[TD]Edward Plesa, Jr.[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$393,600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Overanalyze[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$296,381[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Uncaptured[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$292,374[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Den's Legacy[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$265,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Power Broker[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$210,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Super Ninety Nine[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$200,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]Will Take Charge[/TD]
[TD]D. Wayne Lukas[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$152,791[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Falling Sky[/TD]
[TD]John Terranova[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$122,500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]t-13[/TD]
[TD]Flashback[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$120,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]t-13[/TD]
[TD]Revolutionary[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]$120,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Dynamic Sky[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]$271,668[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]He's Had Enough[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]$430,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Fear The Kitten[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]$84,890[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]Tesseron[/TD]
[TD]Josie Carroll[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]$49,017[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]Bern Identity[/TD]
[TD]Kelly Breen[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$572,000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]Capo Bastone[/TD]
[TD]John Sadler[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]$246,000[/TD]
[/TR]
</TBODY>[/TABLE]

Only two horses have over 20 points to date. Over the next two months, 17 races will be run in which 22 spots for winners and place horses will shell out at least 40 points, with another 17 spots giving out 20 points.

This means NOBODY is locked in, and everyone needs to be ready to run his best. Which also means lots of big fields and lots of great races ahead.
 
First up this weekend in the 50-20-10-5 category are the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds.

Here's my look at the FOY, sorted by anticipated running style:

- FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#5 Elmutahid - Just broke his maiden on his 5th try last month on a sloppy track. Has been improving steadily and his early speed is a plus. Also cutting back from 9 furlongs to the 8 1/2 here, so you know he has some stamina. Big class jump though, but one to keep an eye on.

#6 Cerro - Won a 9 furlong optional claimer last month as the favorite over Sky Captain, who's also in this field. Started as a turf horse in Italy, never ran a maiden race, 2 for 5 overall, 1 for 2 on dirt. Speed figures need to improve here.

#8 Speak Logistics - Won 2 of his first 3 as a 2YO, but came up an empty 7th in the BC Juvenile last year, and was a fair 4th in the Sam Davis this year at Tampa. Need to improve to get to last year's level, which still wouldn't win today. Rosario takes over the mount though, minor plus.

#4 Majestic Hussar - Interesting colt from Eddie Kenneally, trying two turns for the first time here. Ran a blistering 7 furlongs in the slop last month in a nice optional claimer win over Palace Malice, who'll be well placed in the Risen Star. Has won 2 of 3 on off tracks, his poorest effort was on a fast track, so he might be a mudder. Check the weather reports.

- ABLE TO RATE JUST OFF THE PACE

SCRATCHED #10 Falling Sky - Winner of the Sam Davis in Tampa, and three out of four lifetime. Speed numbers need to improve though. He's a game finisher if he can get the lead late, only problem is he doesn't figure to have it here without a nice jump forward. Outside post is brutal here with the short run to the turn.

SCRATCHED - #7 Sky Captain - Only win was a 10 length maiden romp last July. Against stiffer competition in his last two he's been beaten by Fallen Sky, Majestic Hussar and Cerro. No reason to think he's leapt ahead of them in the last month.

#11 Sr. Quisqueyano - His 8 starts are second most in the field. Won his first 3 races as a 2YO, then fell short 4 straight times to Brave Dave and Itsmyluckyday. Got bumped at the start of the Holy Bull and didn't run at all. If you throw that out then yes this horse has some talent. Working out a trip from the outside post makes it almost impossible for him to win, but 3rd or 4th would be a good result.

- OFF THE PACE RUNNERS

#9 He's Had Enough - The follow-up horse to the connections of I'll Have Another, this year's version is no match for last year's electrifying Derby winner. Entered both here and in the Risen Star, but is reported to be headed to Gulfstream despite the bad post position. Has shown little in two races since his close 2nd in the BC Juvenile. Don't like his chances here either.

#3 Violence - Pletcher's Cash Call Futurity and Nashua winner as a 2YO makes his first start of 2013 as the 9/5 favorite. Unbeaten in 3 starts, likes to track a couple of lengths off the front-runners and should be able to find a ground saving trip from the 3 hole. Needs to show he's moved forward from last year, if he has he'll be right there at the finish.

#1 Orb - Late improving horse, broke his maiden in his 4th try after running up against Violence and Vyjack in earlier tries. Followed it up with an 9 furlong optional claimer win last month. Rosario jumps off this mount, but HOF Velazquez takes over. Not sure he can be close enough to the pace to contend late against this group. Gulfstream is a notorious speed favoring track. In his 9 furlong win he was able to rate a half length off the leader against a slow 1:13+ fraction. He won't see that here.

- CLOSERS

#2 Joshua's Comprise - A 16 race veteran, 14 times as a 2YO, with only 1 win to his credit. Closers are at a huge disadvantage at Gulfstream, and this guy doesn't have the talent to overcome it. A distant 4th in the Holy Bull and Gulfstream Derby, might catch something similar here but that's about it.

SUMMARY

If Violence has moved forward from his 2YO campaign, he's certainly the one to beat. IF he hasn't, and IF Majestic Hussar can make the distance, then the #4 would be a logical alternative. IF neither of them show then its totally wide open, with the 5, 6, 7 (scr) and 8 all with a shot.
 
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The Risen Star at Fair Grounds has a huge field of 14 scheduled. He's Had Another is probably running in the FOY, which means alternate entry Sunbean draws in. Unlike Gulfstream, Fair Grounds is a very fair track in terms of speed bias and post position. Late runners have more than a fair chance here, although you still want to be no more than 4-5 lengths out heading into the stretch.

- FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#10 Oxbow - Winner of the LeComte last month here, trained by legendary D. Wayne Lukas. Was an unthreatening 4th to Violence and Den's Legacy in the Cash Call last December, but synthetic may not be his game as he 0 for 2 on the surface. Has the form, will need to continue to improve against a much better field today.

#6 Palace Malice - Chased speedballer Majestic Hussar to finish 2nd in a 7 furlong optional claimer at Gulfstream last month. Has the speed figures to contend, now stretches to two turns for the first time. Son of Curlin should get the distance, and also gets Rosie who is solid at Fair Grounds. Certainly the best name contending for the triple crown this year.

- ABLE TO RATE JUST OFF THE PACE

#2 Code West - Baffert entry ships in with Martin Garcia tagging along. Broke his maiden in his 4th try, but was at this distance. Lost by 3 lengths to Super Ninety Nine in his last, who went on to crush in the Southwest. Like to rate just off the leader, which should fit him well in here.

SCRATCHED #15 Sunbean - Has been successful in state-bred races at Fair Grounds. Not Triple Crown nominated and comes in off the alternates list, gives the impression that this was not originally on his radar. Has some tactical speed and wouldn't need to improve much from his best to be in the hunt.


#13 Circle Unbroken - Grade 3 winner at sprint distance in 2012, did not show much in his first try at two turns in the Lecomte. Needs to show me something in routes before I'd play him.

#3 Agent - Cinderella story has wins at Remington and Sam Houston, not exactly triple crown stepping stones. Pretty slow figures, would be a shocker.

#11 Bethel - comes up from the maiden claiming ranks, broke his cherry in his 3rd try there. Last effort was a decent fourth in a low level allowance, but would need to improve in a major way to be in the hunt here. 50-1 ML and will probably go higher.

- OFF THE PACE TYPES

SCRATCHED #14 Departing - The other Stall horse (with Sunbean), undefeated in two starts at Fair Grounds with a low level optional claimer under his belt. Speed figures are a little substandard but this is only his third race and he's proven to have a nose for the wire. Price will be attractive.
#8 I've Struck a Nerve - 8 races into his career with only a maiden win is a clear negative. Contended in the Sugar Bowl and Jean Lafitt but was a non-threatening fourth in the LeComte. No reason to think he'll leap forward in a big way here.

#1 Proud Strike - Ran a big fig in this 3rd maiden race to win by 7 lengths on this track, at this distance, in what has become a key race. Now he gets red hot HOF Gary Stevens to fly in from California to ride. This horse is well intended and in the right situation to succeed. Major player.

- CLOSERS

#4 Golden Soul - Ran a distant (11 lengths!) 2nd to Oxbow in the LeComte. Don't really see how he can shave 2+ seconds in 5 weeks.

#5 Mylute - Son of the great sprinter Midnight Lute, has shown he can handle the distance with a close 3rd in the Delta Jackpot last November, followed by a smashing 10 length win in an optional claimer a month later. Rosie doesn't stick with him though, but Bridgmohan is a good substitute. Steadily improving speed figures, could make some noise in the stretch.

#7 Hardrock Eleven - 50/1 ML on this one, who's put in his best efforts either under a mile or on turf. In his 3 two turn dirt races he's finished 6th, 8th and 5th, the last two beaten by over 15 lengths. Nuff said.

#9 Normandy Invasion - Finally the ML favorite, who sports the best speed figure in the group thanks to his game loss to Overanalyze in the Remsen last year. Appears to be training well, last 3 works were 5th in 24, 1st in 26 and 2nd in 74 on the day. Lezcano leaves Gulfstream's big card to come in and ride this guy. If he takes to the track he'll be tough to beat.

- SUMMARY

When going through horse by horse it becomes apparent that there's a lot of runners in this race who really can't be considered contenders, many of which came out of the LeComte. Makes you wonder how Oxbow will fair. You can pretty much pull the best horse in each running style, Palace Malice, Code West, Proud Strike and Normandy Invasion, and say those are the four contenders to win. Press me for just one and I'll say Stevens and Proud Strike get it done. But give me 3 of those four in the super with 1 of the next bests in 3rd, which to me are Oxbow, Sunbean (scr), Departing (scr) and Mylute.
 
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Glad you got this going, Gandy. Thank you and i'll try my best to contribute.

Still have some more work to do on FOY, but i like Orb.
 
Orb's a good one Play but I think he's at the wrong track for his running style. He'd have been better served to run in Louisiana or even Aqueduct.
 
Nice call on Orb Play2Win! The pace went a little faster than I expected considering Majestic Hussar got a clear lead. Should've known better than to discount Johnny V in the saddle. Gomez, Dominguez and Johnny V are three jocks that always need to be accounted for.

On the other hand, everyone discounted I've Struck A Nerve in the Risen Star. 135 to 1!!!! He was tough to get. Without his unexpected involvement the 2-6-10-9 finish of the next four would've gotten me the super.

As far as my top choice, I guess Stevens felt the need to send Proud Strike from the 1 hole, which is against that horse's running style and likely helped lead to his fade on the far turn. Code West ran an outstanding race in defeat, pressing the pace, dropping back then re-rallying.

Not sure what the Beyer figure will be but the final time of this race was about 2 lengths better than Mark Valeski in the Mineshaft and 4 lengths better than Unlimited Budget's romp in the Rachel. Will that make I've Struck a Nerve a legitimate contender in May? Time will tell.
 
Well the 20 points earned by Violence just went up in smoke, as he suffered a sesamoid injury that takes him off the trail.

On tap this week: The Gotham Stakes at Acqeduct featuring Remsen winner Overanalyze.

Current Standings

[TABLE="class: ckeditor-styled-table, width: 100%"]
<TBODY>[TR]
[TH="width: 5%"]Rank
[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%"]Horse
[/TH]
[TH="width: 30%"]Trainer
[/TH]
[TH="width: 10%"]Points
[/TH]
[TH="width: 25%"]Non-restricted Stakes Earnings
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]Ive Struck A Nerve
[/TD]
[TD]Keith Desormeaux
[/TD]
[TD]51
[/TD]
[TD]$268,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]Orb
[/TD]
[TD]Shug McGaughey III
[/TD]
[TD]50
[/TD]
[TD]$240,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]Violence (OFF THE TRAIL)
[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher
[/TD]
[TD]30
[/TD]
[TD]$575,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]Shanghai Bobby
[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]$1,731,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]Goldencents
[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]$740,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]Code West
[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]$80,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]Oxbow
[/TD]
[TD]D. Wayne Lukas
[/TD]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[TD]$196,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]Speak Logistics
[/TD]
[TD]Eddie Plesa Jr.
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]$52,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]Itsmyluckyday
[/TD]
[TD]Eddie Plesa, Jr.
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$393,600
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]Overanalyze
[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$296,381
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]Uncaptured
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$292,374
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]Den's Legacy
[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$265,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]Power Broker
[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$210,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14
[/TD]
[TD]Super Ninety Nine
[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$200,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]Will Take Charge
[/TD]
[TD]D. Wayne Lukas
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$152,791
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[TD]Falling Sky
[/TD]
[TD]John Terranova
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$122,500
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]t-17
[/TD]
[TD]Flashback
[/TD]
[TD]Bob Baffert
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$120,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]t-17
[/TD]
[TD]Revolutionary
[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$120,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD]Palace Malice
[/TD]
[TD]Todd Pletcher
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]$40,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]Dynamic Sky
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Casse
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]$271,668
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]He's Had Enough
[/TD]
[TD]Doug O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]$442,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]Fear The Kitten
[/TD]
[TD]Mike Maker
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]$84,890
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD]Tesseron
[/TD]
[TD]Josie Carroll
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]$49,017
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]Majestic Hussar
[/TD]
[TD]Eddie Kenneally
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]$22,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD]Bern Identity
[/TD]
[TD]Kelly Breen
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]$572,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
</TBODY>[/TABLE]
 
Not nearly as good as you all, but I got one dude I know in the game

I'll post what I can:shake:
 
twinkie13 said:
Not nearly as good as you all, but I got one dude I know in the game

I'll post what I can:shake:
Click to expand...

YES!

Shrewd move by your guy pulling Sunbean from his parking lot post position in the Risen Star and putting him in a winning spot in that nongraded stake.
 
Looks like another full field lined up for the Gotham this Saturday at Aqueduct. Twelve horses drawn, all triple crown nominated. The inner track at the Big A has been playing reasonably fair, with closers able to rally against a solid pace.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#8 Elnaawi - One of three from Kiaran McLaughlin (other two are a coupled entry from Darley Stable). Broke his maiden on the inner track at 1 mile in the mud in January. This is his first try against winners. If he moves forward again from his last effort he might be surprisingly tough.

#1(entry) Now And Then - Another McLaughlin horse, this one is broke his maiden at 6 furlongs in his first try last month. So he's trying winners and stretching out. Interesting that Irad Ortiz was on him for his win but decided to run with McLaughin/Darley's other horse Transparent. Junior Alvarado is no slouch, but the Ortiz brothers have dominated this Big A meet. Difficult to say how fast he'll go early since his main competition for the lead has the same trainer. Would have to really leap forward to be competitive here.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#3 Escapefromreality - Looked like he might be a winner in G3 Withers just 3 weeks ago at 16-1, but ended up 2nd by a neck. Has steadily improved in each of his 3 starts. Experienced on the inner and at the distance, should be better bet this time. Only drawback is Cohen replaces Junior Ortiz, a downgrade in riders.

#4 Ore Pass - Has two dominating sprint wins at Laurel (the latter a stakes race) sandwiched around a subpar effort in a 6 furlong sprint at Parx. New track, stretching out, has yet to run as well as his initial effort speed figure-wise. Too many question marks to endorse.

#6 Siete De Oros - Experienced horse (7th race), ran competitive 2nd and 3rd in G2 Jerome and G3 Withers on the inner at very nice odds after coming out of Parx. Parx regular Angel Arroyo was not on him for those races, but gets back on him now, hmmm. Hard to throw out, but hard to say this time will be the charm.

#7 Vyjack - One of the two main contenders, is 3 for 3 for Rudy Rodriguez including the G2 Jerome despite a rough trip. Joel Rosario comes up from Florida to ride for the 1st time. This is rarified air for Rudy Rod, who's great on the claiming circuit but doesn't usually find himself with a Derby horse. He'll be cranked up.

#9 Sky Captain - Mark Casse entry has been slow to improve, with only his maiden win to show in 4 races. Ran a decent 2nd to Cerro in an optional claimer at Gulfstream, which was not flattered by his performance last week. Unlikely.

#11 Overanalyze - The other primary contender, one from the never-ending Pletcher stable. Two time graded stakes winner including the 9 furlong G2 Remsen over Normandy Invasion, who was OK in the Risen Star. Now cutting back from that effort, which means he's been off for 3 months. The layoff is probably the only drawback for this talented horse, who figures to be in the mix down the stretch.

#10 West Hills Giant - Put up a pretty big number in his first effort of 2013, a six furlong stake on the inner. 1 for 3 on grass routes but his two best speed efforts have been on dirt at 6 panels. Will be interesting to see if its been the lawn or the distance that's been his problem. Jose Espinoza on the mount does not excite.

#1(entry) Transparent - The other half of the Darley entry, finally broke his maiden in his 6th try after running up against the likes of Orb, Revolutionary and Arch Warrior. Interesting that Irad Ortiz chose this horse to ride. Maybe the light bulb finally went on? Will need to improve speed figure here.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#2 Champion Boy - Making his third start, winless in his first two including a plodding fifth in the G3 Withers. Trained by Juan Carlos Guerrero, who was kicked out of Parx for 10 years in late 2011, not from shady dealings that produced a gaudy win percentage there, but from an indecent assault incident. As a still eligible maiden this horse probably shouldn't be in here, which under any other trainer would make him a throwout. But with Juan C watch out.

#5 Amerigo Vespucci - Finished 3rd and 4th in the Jerome and Withers, right behind Siete de Oros both times at double digit odds. Would need a really hot pace here to help him pass them late. Probably not fast enough but could run late for the exotics.

CLOSERS

There are no true closers in this race.

SUMMARY - With so many horses with similar running styles it going to be their trips and positioning that will be a big factor, and that makes it a rider's race. With unflappable John Velazquez on board, and a nice bit of tactical speed, Overanalyze gets a big leg up in that department. Rosario on Vyjack is the other big name coming in, he will be aggressive in getting him towards the front. No surprise there that the two most likelys have the bigtime jocks. The intriguing longshots to me are two horses trying something new, turfer West Hills Giant and 2nd time starter Now And Then.
 
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Play2win said:
I'll be using Transparent, Elnaawi and Sky Captain in the Gotham. GL Gandy.
Click to expand...

GL Play. Transparent looks good with the scratch of the 1A. Only problem with Elnawai is the weak rider. This race has a pretty big jock disparity for a Derby prep.

Gonna try have Johnny V get me home on the fave in a small pick 4:

1-2-3-8/2-3-4/11/1-4-12
 
Rosario gets it done on Vyjack by sitting back and making one big run in the stretch. My longshot prospect West Hills Giant almost wires the field and hangs tough for 2nd. Naturally I took the wrong main contender in Overanalyze, who was sent early by Johnny V, sat a stalking trip in 3rd but came up empty in the stretch. Pick 4 only paid $48 thanks to Comma To the Top holding off the 3 in the Tom Fool, so no big loss.

Vyjack showed a nice closing kick but there are concerns about his ability to go 10 panels. He'll get the chance to prove it now.

Pletcher's derby contingent is starting to thin out.
 
Two of the real buzz horses take to the track this weekend in a pair of Derby preps, Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby and Flashback in the San Felipe. While Tampa's been playing a little better to speed types, both races can be had by late runners if the pace is right.

First the Tampa Bay Derby:

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#7 Offlee Fast - Despite the name, this entry from Ronald Pelligrini has not shown the overall speed figures needed for this race. 2nd by a head in his last to Capo Bastone in an optional claimer at Gulfstream.

#9 Falling Sky - Winner of three of four, including the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa last month as a wire to wire winner. Has red hot Jose Espinoza on board. From the outside post he'll need to be sent early to avoid getting caught wide. Will be outside of Offlee Fast on the backstretch and should be the one to catch in the stretch. Was able to go 47.3 and 1:12.3 in the Sam Davis and barely held on vs Dynamic Sky. Will need to do the same against a likely faster pace in this one.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#1 Eton Blue - Finished 2nd to Verrazano in his last, behind by 16 lengths. Same problem as Offlee Fast in that his speed figures to date are not nearly enough to be competitive here.

#6 Verrazano - Pletcher/Velazquez colt is this year's #1 buzz horse. Won his maiden by over 7 lengths in a race where the 2nd place finisher won next out. Followed that up with a smashing 16 length romp in an optional claimer where the 3rd place finisher won next out. Reportedly training very well, only question is how he takes to the Tampa track. The one to beat.

#2 Purple Egg - Three for three with a stakes win on the Tampa track, but stretching out past 6 furlongs for the first time. Might be a tall order against this group. Might keep the pace fast enough to set up some closers though.

#3 Honorable Dillon - Won the Grade 2 Hutcheson at 7f at Gulfstream, son of Tapit should be OK with the extra distance. Went 1:22.2 in that one, which is not far off where Verrazano was after 7f in his mile win. Could be very competitive if the favorite doesn't fire.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#4 Java's War - Making his 6th start, 2nd on dirt. Both his wins have come on turf, and his best speed effort was on Keeneland's poly track, where he was 3rd in the Breeder's Futurity. Broke slow and ran 6 wide to finish 6th in the Kentucky Jockey Gold at Churchill, so his true ability on dirt is still a bit of a mystery. A sleeper horse who figures to see very attractive odds.

CLOSERS

#8 Park City - The other Pletcher horse, two for two but stretching out for the first time. Damsire Pleasant Colony gives the horse the stamina to go long. Velazquez obviously chose Verrazano, but Prado onboard is not bad. Has shown he knows how to win, but can he handle the step up in class?

#5 Dynamic Sky - The veteran of the bunch, making his seventh start. 2nd in the Sam Davis against fairly average pace, figures to benefit from a quicker one in this matchup. Rosario/Casse combination could be tough, and this horse is battle tested with two stakes wins and seconds in a G1 and G3. Likely second choice.

SUMMARY - It's the very talented Verrazano's race to lose, but with this being his first time in stakes company, his first time past a mile, his first time at Tampa, and with a couple of sprinters stretching out, there could be a scenario where he tires and a late runner picks up the pieces. If so, I like Dynamic Sky to win in the shadow of the wire. Like Java's War and Park City as the longshots for exotics.
 
The San Felipe features one of Bafferts best in Flashback against one of the more battle-tested horses on the Derby trail in Goldencents. San Anita has played very fair this year after the speed fest at the Breeder's Cup.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#7 Salutos Amigos - The unquestioned speedball in the race, stretching out for the first time after running 21.2 and 43.2 fractions to break his maiden at 6 furlongs in his 3rd try. Pedigree does not show routing excellence, so it looks like his main function will be to set up an honest pace for the late runners.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#3 Goldencents - Top entry from last year's Derby winning trainer, he's 3 for 4 with back to back Grade 3 wins including the Sham last month at Santa Anita. His only defeat was a 2nd to champion Shanghai Bobby in the Grade 1 Champagne. He breaks inside of Salutos Amigos so it will be important for Krigger to find a comfortable spot for him. He's never been positioned worse than 2nd in any of his four races, so there's no telling how he'll take to dirt getting kicked in his face. Has the class but not sure the race sets up for him.

#2 Flashback - Inside of Goldencents will be this flashy colt from Bob Baffert. 2 for 2, with a big win in the Bob Lewis against a small field. Was able to rate in 4th in his maiden win before turning it on, so I'd expect Leparoux to be comfortable sitting his 3rd here. Has a lot of talent but hasn't faced all that much really. If he moves forward he'll be tough.

#1 Carving - Baffert's other horse, started his career as a pacesetter type but in his last two efforts on poly he's been running further back early. It hasn't been working as he finished out of the money both time. Bejarano jumps on board now, which should bode well for a more aggressive ride. Has not shown good enough speed numbers to compete at this level in his first six efforts, which means he's probably not a contender.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#5 Hear the Ghost - Son of Ghostzapper will try two turns after a credible 2nd in a non-graded stake at this track. Pedigree says distance shouldn't be an issue. Trained by Hall of Famer Hollendorfer, he's very interesting at what should be a pretty good price.

#8 Omega Star - John Shirrefs (Zenyatta) colt was beaten by a length by Tiz a Minister on Sunshine Millions Day. Well bet in his two west coast efforts since leaving the Jerkens barn in New York, he's another one that may be battling in the stretch should the pace be as hot as expected.

#4 Kochees - Finished a distant fourth to Super Ninety Nine and Code West in his last race, which is no shame. 3rd effort could see a nice jump forward, and adding blinkers as well. Valdivia has been ice cold on his mounts this year so far, a big minus, otherwise he might be more interesting.

CLOSERS

#6 Tiz a Minister - Already a nine race veteran, with 6 tries needed to break his maiden, the light bulb clicked on bigtime in his last, his first effort on dirt, as he rallied from nine lengths back in the last quarter mile to win a 300k stake on Sunshine Millions day. Maybe Gomez being on board helped too. The horse and jockey mesh well in style here. Figures to be a square price as the 3rd choice.

SUMMARY - The key to this race is the speedball #7, and whether the two favorites go along with him or let him go. I'm thinking it'll be the former, which should set up for the race to fall apart and Tiz a Minister to rally to the win. Omega Star and Hear the Ghost have a legitimate shot at finishing in the money, along with one of the two top choices.

Best of luck everyone!
 
Verrazano turned out as good as advertised, with a 103 Beyer for his efforts. He took control at the start of the backstretch and never wavered. Java's War ran big for his price to help perk up the exotics next to the 2/5 favorite. Rosario had Dynamic Sky tracking very close to the early pace which negated any chance for a closing kick.

The San Felipe was an absolute thriller, with upstart Hear the Ghost getting the jump on Tiz a Minister as the two closed impressively from over 6 lengths back at the top of the stretch, with Ghost nipping Flashback and Tiz finishing a close 3rd. My recommended trifecta grouping using Tiz with Omega Star-Ghost and Flashback-Goldencents cost $24 to box and brought home $125. Not bad.

Elsewhere I've Struck a Nerve has an ankle injury and has been taken off the derby trail. Current standings are below with the Rebel on deck for this weekend.

1T. Verrazano, 50
1T. Orb, 50
1T. Vyjack, 50
1T. Hear The Ghost, 50
5. Flashback, 30
6. Goldencents, 29
7. Shanghai Bobby, 24
8. Java's War, 22
9T. Falling Sky, 20
9T. West Hills Giant, 20
9T. Code West, 20
12. Oxbow, 16
13. Dynamic Sky, 13
14. Speak Logistics 11
15T. Itsmyluckyday, 10
15T. Overanalyze, 10
15T. Uncaptured, 10
15T. Den's Legacy, 10
15T. Power Broker, 10
15T. Super Ninety Nine, 10
15T. Will Take Charge, 10
15T. Revolutionary, 10
15T. Elnaawi, 10
15T. Palace Malice, 10
15T. Tiz A Minister, 10
 
They haven't drawn the field yet but the notables for the Rebel include:

Oxbow, 16 pts (Lukas)
Will Take Charge, 10 pts (Lukas)
Den's Legacy, 10 pts (Baffert)
Super Ninety Nine, 10 pts (Baffert)
Texas Bling, 4 pts (Durham)
Delhomme, 2 pts (Pletcher)
Big Lute (Hobby)
Treasury Bill (Ellis)
Always In A Tiz (Schettino)
Carve (Asmussen)
So Raise Yourglass (McPeek)
Heaven’s Runway (Chatters)
 
The Rebel at Oaklawn in Arkansas is the 6th 50 point race in the Road to the Derby and last of the big five winter tracks (Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Santa Anita and Fairgrounds are the others) to complete leg 1 of the championship series. Oaklawn is generally a pretty fair track, with a speed bias of only 57% in races at this length. So pace will be a factor.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#1A Title Contender - Part of a coupled entry from Gary and Mary West, along with the well considered Treasury Bill. Formerly in the Baffert barn, now under Wayne Catalano. Was caught by Carve at the wire in his last, a first level optional claimer where he set tepid early fractions of 23:3 and 47:4. Contested the lead in the BC Juvenile last year under much sterner fractions and wilted away to 8th. He'll be upfront again here and will likely fade once more.

#9 Oxbow - Comes over from Fairgrounds, where he had things his way in the Risen Star and took the lead in the stretch, only to be caught late and finish 4th in the photo. This after a dominating 11 length romp in the LeComte. Making his first start at Oaklawn, the 6th different track of his young career. Has the numbers to be a contender, but the speed in this race figures to make things tough for him.

#10 Super Ninety Nine - Like Oxbow in the Risen Star, this Baffert entry comes off an 11 length domination in the Grade 3 Southwest. That is looking like a pretty weak field at this time, so this will be a serious test for him. Beat Code West by 3 lengths two back, who was one of the three to catch Oxbow in the Risen Star. Has had two sharp works since his last and figures to be right in the mix until the very end.

#4 Delhomme - Pletcher horse making only his 4th start and first of 2013. Was a close third to Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion at 9 furlongs in the Remsen, so distance shouldn't be an issue. If he's improved in the 3 months since he figures to be very tough. Has raced from the lead his past two, so he'll add to what should be a stern pace. Picks up Gomez, which is a big plus.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#7 Will Take Charge - 2nd Lukas entry along with Oxbow, ran a dismal race in the Southwest as the sloppy track did not suit him. With better weather expected he should run closer to his winning effort in the Smarty Jones from January. Held held up well there despite tracking a 23 flat/46:3 pace. Probably a notch below the best here. A top effort would make him an exotics option.

#3 Texas Bling - Another horse who showed a dislike for the sloppy Oaklawn track in the Southwest, ran a game 2nd before that in the Smarty Jones losing by only a neck. A twelve race vet at this point in his career, his upside is limited and his current level is not good enough. Trainer has limited experience at the graded stakes level. Pass.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#6 Den's Legacy - Hard knocking horse has a win in a grade 3 turf race, a place in a grade 1 on poly and back to back 2nds in graded stakes on Santa Anita's dirt track. Ships out of Cali for Baffert for first time. The speed numbers in the Cali preps this year have not matched last year's bumper crop, so there's reasonable hesitation in thinking this horse is really Derby material. Gomez sides with Delhomme instead of this horse who's been ridden by him his last six starts, so that's telling. Maybe catches a piece since he's a proven battler, but not one to put on top.

#2 Carve - Relative unknown is 2 for 2 lifetime, both at this distance, making his stakes debut. Gets the rail so he'll be able to save ground. Made a nice step forward between first and second races while still managing to win against better company. Another move forward like that and he could be right in the mix. At 15/1 morning line he's a solid bet to outrun his odds. Pace works in his favor too. Not a triple crown nominated horse, one of two in the race.

CLOSERS

#5 Hardrock Eleven - Making his eighth start and still eligible for non-winners of two. His best efforts were shorter than a mile races on the tighter tracks of Delta Downs and Sam Houston. Did not appear to like Fairgrounds, which is more similar to Oaklawn in terms of size. Was 142 to 1 in the Risen Star and finished last. Hard to see how he'll excel here.

#8 Stormy Holiday - The other non-triple crown nominated horse. Has run 4th in three straight non-graded stakes, no steps up to graded company. Speed figures show him 10 lengths or more behind the better horses in this field. No thanks.

#1 Treasury Bill - Trying two turns for the first time, which shouldn't be an issue for this Ellis trained horse. Has gradually improved in each of his three races to date, including a 2nd in the grade 2 San Vicente at 7 furlongs. Should be rallying in the stretch. Whether he can get there will be the question.

SUMMARY - With all the pace signed on for this race it's almost begging you to look for someone off the pace. The two most intriging to me are Carve and Treasury Bill. Delhomme and Super Ninety Nine need to be respected based on there results to date. I'll be using those four in the late pick four and vertical wagers.
 
Wow, total whiff on my part in the Rebel, as the two D Wayne Lukas entries, Oxbow and Will Take Charge, battled to the wire with WTC winning by a nose at 28 to 1.

Title Contender did his part as an early rabbit and managed to wear down Southwest champ Super Ninety Nine. Delhomme tracked the pace as well and faded, he likely needed the race. Treasury Bill and Carve were nowhere to be found. About the only thing I did get right was Den's Legacy battling his way to a third place finish.

Will Take Charge moves to 60 points and has his ticket punched for Churchill. Oxbow now has 36 points and is probably on the borderline if he doesn't run well in the Arkansas Derby. Updated standings:

1. Will Take Charge, 60
2T. Verrazano, 50
2T. Orb, 50
2T. Vyjack, 50
2T. Hear The Ghost, 50
6. Oxbow, 36
7. Flashback, 30
8. Goldencents, 29
9. Shanghai Bobby, 24
10. Java's War, 22
11T. Falling Sky, 20
11T. West Hills Giant, 20
11T. Code West, 20
11T. Den's Legacy, 20
15. Dynamic Sky, 13
16. Speak Logistics 11
17T. Itsmyluckyday, 10
17T. Overanalyze, 10
17T. Uncaptured, 10
17T. Power Broker, 10
17T. Super Ninety Nine, 10
17T. Revolutionary, 10
17T. Elnaawi, 10
17T. Palace Malice, 10
17T. Tiz A Minister, 10

Next weekend: the last two 50 point races, the Spiral on poly on Saturday and the Sunland Derby in New Mexico on Sunday. Both fields are expected to be filled with a lot of relatively unknown horses.
 
The Spiral features a full field of 12 but very little in terms of big names. Capo Bastone and Balance the Books are probably the two most recognizable, as both ran in the Breeders Cup races. Turfway Park is a synethetic track which tends to favor late-running types. This is also the first of the 9 furlong preps. Blurbs will have to be short as the NCAA tourney dominates this week.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#7 Mac the Man - Likely frontrunner wired the in a 1 mile stake at his first try around 2 turns. All 7 of his races have been on synthetic, and he's won his last three. Does not appear to be a lot of speed in this one, so he might get loose. Has shown a love for Turfway.

#10 Giant Finish - Nipped in the stretch by General Election in a 75k Stake last month after controlling the pace throughout. His fractions in that effort actually beat Mac the Man's, so expect them to battle early. Only his 5th race, so room to improve.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#3 Uncaptured - Mark Casse entry is 6 for 7 with wins in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club and G3 Iroquois on his resume. Started career at 4 for 5 at Woodbine so he's OK with poly. Figures to get first run at the two leaders, could prove tough to reel in.

#6 For Greater Glory - Stepping up in class after running 3rd in the General Election/Giant Finish stake. Would really need to leap up from here.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#9 Black Onyx - Rallied from fifth to win his last, an optional claimer on turf at Gulfstream. Bit of an unknown quantity as he's never tried synthetics or stakes company. Interesting that Joe Bravo made the trip for this one.

#11 Taken by the Storm - Another horse coming in from the optional claimer turf ranks, although with a few more races under his belt and a winning effort on Keeneland's poly on his resume. Hard to endorse this one.

CLOSERS

#2 Channel Isle - Was 46-1 in Southwest and ran a distant 4th in the slop. Tried Keeneland poly once as a maiden and rallied for third. Otherwise pretty non-descript 8 race career so far.

#5 My Name is Michael - Finished a disappointing 3rd as the favorite in the Sam Davis at Tampa. Has had success on the Woodbine poly. Bill Mott should be able to squeeze a big effort out of this colt, and is that Rosario I see on board? Wow. Expect him to be in the mix.

#12 Capo Bastone - Pletcher horse has yet to live up to his promise, with maiden and optional claimer wins sandwiched around three G1 Stakes efforts of show, show and fourth. Overall speed has never been graded stakes quality, not sure how this effort will be any better.

#8 General Election - Winner coming from 6 lengths back in the 75k stake noted above. Will need some pace to get there, but this race is a little light on burners.

#4 Fear the Kitten - Kitten's Joy progeny should do fine on the poly. Has a 2nd and 3rd in graded stakes this year, although the speed numbers have been dreadful. Rosie comes in to ride, will need to be at her best to coax this one home.

#1 Balance the Books - Making his 2013 debut at a closing 3rd in the BC Juvenile Turf. Makes his first try on poly after 4 turf races, whic shouldn't be an issue. If he's matured in his three months away he could be very formidable. Leparoux makes the trip to stay on him, his closing style meshes well with the jockey's rider style.

SUMMARY - The race features five formidable closers in #1, 4, 5, 8 and 12. What it lacks is a lot of speed, so I think Uncaptured should be able to rate right in behind Mac the Man and Giant Finish and pass them heading into the stretch, at which point it'll be a question of whether he can last the ninth furlong. I think he can.
 
The unknown quantity gets it done. Black Onyx, trying stakes and synthetic for the first time, took to it like a fish to water and held off Uncaptured to win at 15 to 1. Uncaptured ran the race I expected, sitting 4th off the pace set by Mac the Man, but Manuel Mega let Joe Bravo and BO get the first jump at the 3/4 pole and ended up having to chase him home. Mac the Man faded badly despite some not too pressing 48.2 for the 1st quarter on a speed favoring track. How speed favoring was it? The six closers in the race started 6th, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 12th and finished 5th, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11th.
 
No time for a big writeup on the Sunland Derby, suffice it to say that Baffert sends in two in Govenor Charlie and Shakin It Up that both look capable, and Pletcher brings in Abraham along with Hall of Famer Velazquez for a rare turn at Sunland. I'd be shocked if the winner comes from the other six in the field, and you can probably count on at least two in the top three. The most interesting horse not in the above group is Saint Prado, which sees regular Baffert rider Rafael Bejarano riding for Jeff Bonde on the maiden winner.
 
Govenor Charlie punches his ticket to Churchill with an impressive win as the favorite on the fast Sunland track, tracking Saint Prado and Abraham into the far turn then making his move and drawing off down the stretch. Abraham was gassed but still managed to hang on to 3rd. Local runner Show Some Magic ran well to finish 2nd and pick up 20 points.

Next up this week is the start of the 100 point races, with the UAE Derby in Dubia, the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

PS - Mark down Midnight Lucky as a co-favorite in the Kentucky Oaks next month along with Beholder. She absolutely crushed her opponents in the Sunland Oaks, running the last 1/2 furlong in a canter while still setting a track record.
 
Midnight Lucky is a freak. She was totally geared down at the end and still set a track record. The track was lightning fast though, 2 track records also fell at Sunland today. Baffert used this race also for Plum Pretty two years ago, who would win the Kentucky Oaks in her next start. Midnight Lucky will try to do the same.
 
Gandolf said:
Govenor Charlie punches his ticket to Churchill with an impressive win as the favorite on the fast Sunland track, tracking Saint Prado and Abraham into the far turn then making his move and drawing off down the stretch. Abraham was gassed but still managed to hang on to 3rd. Local runner Show Some Magic ran well to finish 2nd and pick up 20 points.

Next up this week is the start of the 100 point races, with the UAE Derby in Dubia, the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

PS - Mark down Midnight Lucky as a co-favorite in the Kentucky Oaks next month along with Beholder. She absolutely crushed her opponents in the Sunland Oaks, running the last 1/2 furlong in a canter while still setting a track record.
Click to expand...

We may be punching the ticket baby!!! I will have something here soon.
 
Bring it Twink!

Early look at who's running where in the 100 pointers:

Florida - Shanghai Bobby, Itsmyluckyday, Orb, Frac Daddy, Merit Man, Are You Kidding Me

Louisiana - Revolutionary, Code West, Departing (STALL), Sunbean (STALL), Palace Malice, Titletown Five, Golden Soul, Ground Transport, Hip Four Sixtynine, My Lute, Proud Strike, Brazillian Court, Whiskey Bravo

Wood - Normandy Invasion, Verrazano, Vyjack, Elnaawi, West Hills Giant, Mr. Palmer, Transparent

Arkansas - Falling Sky, Oxbow (new jockey Stevens), Den's Legacy, Overanalyze, Heaven's Runway, Texas Bling, War Academy

Santa Anita - Flashback (new jockey Gomez), Hear the Ghost, Goldencents, Super Ninety Nine, Power Broker

Blue Grass - Charming Kitten, Rydilluc, Dewey Square, Java's War, Noble Tune, Will Take Charge, Uncaptured, Dynamic Sky, Giant Finish, Speak Logistics, Bambazonki, Footbridge
 
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Fields drawn for the Florida and Louisiana Derbys. First up, Florida. Gulfstream is notorious for rewarding front running or close to the pace types, although Orb won the Fountain of Youth from mid-pack after 6 furlongs by making a big move on the turn (and the pace in that race rated as very fast).

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#1 Shanghai Bobby - 2 year old championing has been off since late January, when he suffered his first defeat in 6 races against Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull. His 103 Bris Speed matched his career best in the Champagne. The pace in the HB was not unusually fast, which brings into question whether this horse will be able to last the extra half furlong.

#8 Merit Man - The wildcard in the race, sprinter last seen running fourth in the Hutcheson. Now he stretches out and tries two turns for the first time. Will be a pace presence and will probably help set things up for the stalkers.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#3 Itsmyluckyday - Winner of the Holy Bull and the Gulfstream Derby in January with an eyepopping 111 Bris Speed. Off for two months, the concern is he was a disappointing 6th in the Delta Jackpot off a similar layoff. Likely the one to beat.

#7 Indy's Illusion - Has already ready gone the 9 furlongs three times in his career, running 5th in the Remsen and 2nd & 3rd in a pair of optional claimers. Speed and class ratings nowhere near what is needed. With his bottom he could stay on for 4th.

#10 Narvaez - Deadheat with Declan's Warrior at 7 1/2 furlongs in his last. Now try a G1 Stake in his first try past a mile? Unlikely.

#5 Frac Daddy - Ran a disappointing 6th in the Holy Bull following to excellent efforts at Churchill last fall. May have just been a bad day as he's had two bullet works and a third solid one at Gulfstream in the last 3 weeks. Should be ready to put in his best effort here, which would make him a contender.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#2 Pick of the Litter - Ran huge at 9 furlongs in his last to break his maiden in his 2nd try. Now steps way up in class. Not a win candidate but could show up in the exotics.

CLOSERS

#9 Are You Kidding Me - First time on dirt after seven tries on turf and poly. Finished 5th in his one grade 1 try at Keeneland. Would really need to leap forward on the new surface to be in the hunt here. Would benefit from a hot pace.

#6 Orb - Moved forward significantly in his last to win the Fountain of Youth. Has a win at 9 furlongs on this track. Benefitted from a really hot pace in the FOY that eventually cooked Violence, may not see a pace that fast hear and faces a little better class level as well. Seems like it will be tough for him to duplicate his last win here.

#4 Pontiff - Still a maiden, will hope for a big improvement and a pace meltdown to have a shot for his one run style. Will be a big price.

SUMMARY - Itsmyluckyday should have a setup to his liking, tracking just behind Shanghai Bobby and Merit Man and ready to pounce on the far turn. Watch out for Frac Daddy, who may try to duplicate Orb's big move on the turn from the Fountain of Youth to get himself in position in the stretch. Orb still has Johnny V onboard, but his effort in the FOY was such a big leap forward it would be hard to expect a similar effort today. Will try to slip in Pick of the Litter for the exotics.
 
This Louisiana Derby looks like it'll be a hell of a race. Last year a 100+ to 1 shot, Hero of Order, won it. This year the Fairgrounds already had a 100 to 1 winner in the Risen Star, proving that this is the kind of track where anything is possible. This race has a full field of 14 and about half look like they have a good chance. Might be the best betting race this year that's not on Derby or Breeder's Cup days.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#10 Titletown Five - Buzz horse from D Wayne Lukas, will try 2 turns for the first time. Broke his maiden two back last October (in his 4th try) with a smashing 7 furlong win at Churchill in a key race that included Proud Strike. Before that he'd been nipped at Saratoga by a neck to the well-thought of Violence. His debut this year was a 6 furlong 60k stake at Oaklawn, and as the even money favorite he lead throughout until being caught in the stretch by King Henry. He's from Tiznow so getting the two turns shouldn't be an issue. If he runs back to his October race he'll be in the mix. I'm skeptical, will have to pay to see it. There's a lot of pressers in this one that could make his life miserable.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#2 Palace Malice - Has shown consistent quality in his career, never finishing more than 2 1/4 lengths from the winner with every Bris Speed number over 90. Ran great in the Risen Star despite going 3 wide near turn then 4 wide far turn, still rallying at the end. From the 2 post he should save some ground this time. Son of Curlin can probably go all day. Rosie leaves him to ride at Gulfstream, but Prado is fine. First time running three races without a break, should be very fit. Would be surprised if he's not in the mix late.

#8 Code West - Baffert horse contested the pace in the Risen Star, then fell back to 4th in the stretch, then RE-RALLIED to lose only by a nose to I've Struck a Nerve. Very impressive. Another consistent performer, no worse than third in any race, has multiple route races under his belt. Back to back 99 speed figures, if he moves forward in his 3rd race of the year he'll be very tough to beat.

#13 Ground Transport - 2 for 3 in career, all races at Fairgrounds. Won a 50k first level allowance in his last, 2nd place horse flattered by winning next out. Will try stakes company for the first time. Has been the favorite his last two races, both wins, will see double digit odds in this field. Both wins were at 8 1/2 furlongs and he race 3-4 wide both times, so the outside post might not be an issue. Only his fourth race, hard to throw this one out. Sleeper.

#14 Nina's Dragon - Comes in from the poly track at Golden Gate, where he finished second to Dice Flavor (running in Dubai on Sat) in the G3 El Camino at 9 furlongs. Has improved in each of his four races. First race was the only one on dirt and had his worst result despite being favored. Would have to step way up in speed today to be in the mix. Probably not.

#12 Brazilian Court - Has taken an odd route to get here, going 8 tries before breaking his maiden, was actually claimed after the 7th try by Mike Maker. Then ran 2nd at the OBS Championship at on poly at Ocala, a non-betting race. Steps way up in class here, have to think this will be too much for him. Rosario declined this one to ride elsewhere.

#11 Mylute - Son of sprinter Midnight Lute was a weakening 7th in the Risen Star after following close behind a decent pace. Has 4 stakes tries at 1 mile or longer and has never finished closer than 3 lengths from the winner. Starting to think they may need to go back to sprinting with this one. Will take the chance to play against this one.

#6 Sunbean - Trainer Stall scratched this one out of the Risen Star to run him in an off-turf stake that day. Was a good move as he crushed by 4 3/4 lengths for his third straight win. All races have been at Fairgrounds and he's 3 for 4 with a 2nd. Broke his maiden in the 106k LA Futurity, so its obvious his connections think highly of him. Should get a square price, may be worth a shot.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#1 Hip Four Sixtynine - Can't believe this name slipped past the racing board haha. Just broke his maiden in his last on his 7th try, at 6 furlongs. One of the few I'm comfortable tossing. Seven maiden tries straight to a Grade 2 is not a path to success.

#4 Golden Soul - Was a very distant second to Oxbow in the LeComte, wrote this before the Risen Star: "Ran a distant (11 lengths!) 2nd to Oxbow in the LeComte. Don't really see how he can shave 2+ seconds in 5 weeks." He didn't but he did shave about 9. Borel jumps on, and with a #4 post he's almost certain to get a ground saving trip. Was 34 to 1 in the Risen Star, will likely be similar here and has a really good shot at outrunning his odds. Exotics candidate.

#5 Whiskey Bravo - Another one I'm tossing, has run 4 times without a speed number over 89. Was a non-threatening 4th in Departing's win at Sam Houston last month (50k stake). The trainer is the same one for I've Struck a Nerve, but the horse isn't the same. Toss.

#7 Departing - 3 for 3, improving, has made a nice progression in races, winning that stake in his last that I just mentioned. The other Stall entry, out of War Front, dam sire is Pulpit, so he's got a nice pedigree. First two wins were at Fairgrounds. In both his routes he made his move on the far turn and lead at the stretch, drawing off down the lane. Not sure he'll have the lead to start the stretch, but should be closing ground. Can't ignore.

#9 Proud Strike - Really liked this horse in the Risen Star and Steven rode maybe his worst race his returning from retirement, pushing him up with the leaders only to see him fade to 8th. And still he gained a length on the leaders in the stretch run. Nakatani on the mount this time, if he's patient he might get a good close with him this time around. Has raced against 10 or more in each of his 4 starts, so he's seen traffic before. Will play in exotics, reluctantly pass on him in the win pool.

CLOSERS

#3 Revolutionary - last but not least, has shown a punishing stretch drive in his last two efforts, a maiden romp at a 103 Bris and then a thrilling ride through traffic to get up by a neck in the Withers at Aqueduct. Trying Fairgrounds for the first time, Castellano makes the trip for Pletcher, so they mean business. The most he's run against in his five race career has been 7 others, so this field will have almost twice the opportunity for trouble. He's capable of rating closer to the pace, wouldn't be surprised if Javier has him no horse than 6th or 7th on the backstretch. The NY horses have been pretty good so far in their trips to Florida, can one do it in Louisiana?

SUMMARY - This is a difficult race to decipher. I wouldn't be surpised to see any of the following win this:

Titletown Five
Code West
Palace Malice
Sunbean
Proud Strike
Departing
Revolutionary

Even Ground Transport, Mylute and Golden Soul are interesting. Will probably use the top 7 in the all-stakes pick four and look to single elsewhere on the card. Also a good time to try a double-keyed dime super using maybe Revolutionary with Code West or Palace Malice as keys in various in the money pairings.
 
Lines of Battle took the UAE Derby and earned a trip to Churchill if Aiden O'Brien is so inclined. Early indications are that they're coming.

Orb ran a credible race to take down Itsmyluckyday in the Florida Derby, although it should be noted the he ran ELEVEN lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia did in her freakish run in the Gulfstream Oaks. Johhny V now has to choose between Verrazano and Orb, wouldn't be surprised to see Dominguez get the other mount upon his return. Itsmyluckyday's 40 points for 2nd should provide him enough for a shot at the roses as well.

Revolutionary came through with a big effort at the Fairgrounds and used his tenacity in the stretch to hold off Mylute in the Louisiana Derby. Mylute looked like a winner halfway down the stretch, but Revolutionary found an extra gear late for the win. Mylute gets to 42 points and is likely in the field of 20 in May.

Likely on the outside looking in will be Shanghai Bobby, who had nothing in the stretch at Gulfstream; Code West and Palace Malice, who both finished out of the money at Fairgrounds, and Departing, who finished a credible 3rd in Louisiana but still only has 20 points. They can consider one of the two wildcard races, the Lexington and the Derby Trial as a last chance option.

Next week is another huge weekend with the Wood and Santa Anita Derbys. The Wood is looking at a fantastic field with Normandy Invasion, Verrazano, Vyjack, Elnaawi, West Hills Giant, Mr. Palmer and Transparent all slated to run.
 
Big day today with Aqueduct and Santa Anita both hosting huge cards, and Keeneland now in full swing. Spring is in the air!

The Wood is shaping up to be a three horse matchup similar to the Florida Derby, with Verrazano, Vyjack and Normandy Invasion getting most of the play. Of the three the only one needing a top effort is Normandy Invasion, as the two V's already have their tickets punched for Louisville. Don't underestimate that angle, especially at a track like Aqueduct which usually plays pretty fair to closers. NI should get some pace help with sprinter Chrisandthecapper and frontrunner Freedom Child able to put pressure early on heavy favorite Verrazano.

If I'm looking for someone to upset the applecart the two that interest me are 12-1 Elnaawi, who was a closing 3rd in the Gotham and is only running the 4th race of his career, and 30-1 Go Get the Basil, who moves up from 2 wins and a close 2nd in the optional claiming ranks on the Aqueduct inner and posted a speed figure in his last that would fit here. I would mix both of those two into the exotics and hope one of the big 3 doesn't fire.

At Santa Anita, the early scratch of Hear the Ghost has established Flashback as the heavy favorite. The switch from Leparoux to Gomez will be a big help. But looking at the race there's plenty of options to go against the 6-5 favorite. The second Baffert colt, Power Broker, is back after a five month layoff following his wide trip in the BC Juvenile, and he gets Bejarano returning to ride. The colt sports a Grade 1 win on his resume as a 2 year old at Santa Anita.

The third Baffert colt, Super Ninety Nine, comes back to Cali after mixed results at Oaklawn, winning the Southwest in the slop but fading to 5th in the Rebel. He'll be up on the pace again today, and he's got two wins already at Santa Anita.

Goldencents also returns from his competitive 4th in the San Felipe. Whether he can rate a little better and get the distance will be the question.

As for me I'm going to the well again with Tiz a Minister. The race looks like it has a ton of pace to it and Tiz closed strong in the San Felipe, but Hear the Ghost had already gotten first jump. The extra 1/16th should help close that last length. He's 5-1 on the morning line and should be all of that at posttime.
 
No shockers in the Wood as Verrazano beats back Vyjack at the top of the lane and then holds off a late charging Normandy Invasion for the win. Pace at the half was a slow 49 seconds as Freedom Child was hampered at the gate and Chrisandthecapper got to run alone on the lead. In that respect Normandy Invasion closed pretty well to get to 2nd. All three now have enough points for the Derby invite.
 
Beholder and Emolient both cruised in Oaks preps today as well. The Oaks is shaping up to be a classic with Midnight Lucky, Dreaming of Julia, Emolient and Beholder all coming in with great form.
 
I was dead wrong on Golden Cents. Didn't think he was rateable. Krigger rebounded nicely on him.

Thought Verranzano showed a gutty effort today. Nice 2nd from Normandy invasion.

Beholder beat the same fillies she beat last time. Don't like her at all going forward to the 1 1/8 Kentucky Oaks. Solider group of fillies this year.
 
Gandolf said:
No shockers in the Wood as Verrazano beats back Vyjack at the top of the lane and then holds off a late charging Normandy Invasion for the win. Pace at the half was a slow 49 seconds as Freedom Child was hampered at the gate and Chrisandthecapper got to run alone on the lead. In that respect Normandy Invasion closed pretty well to get to 2nd. All three now have enough points for the Derby invite.
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Great stuff as usual bro,,,love reading your posts
 
Flashback is off the Triple Crown trail. Having a small knee chip removed and will miss about 60 days of training according to Baffert on Twitter.
 
Thanks for the kudos guys. Huge effort from Goldencents running back to his Delta Jackpot form. Flashback looked like he had him measured in the stretch, but then hung a bit. It's a shame Flashback will miss the Triple Crown races, hopefully he's back in time for the Haskell.

Really disappointing effort from Tiz a Minister. You can't make up 10 lengths in the stretch at Santa Anita, I'd don't care if your name is Zenyatta. Talamo needed to have a tracking a little closer the first half of the race.

Next up: Arkansas Derby on what should be a great Oaklawn card, and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. It's looking like over 30 will be the magic number as far as points.
 
Thanks Timh! Time for the last two of the 100 point races, Arkansas and the Blue Grass. The Blue Grass looks inscrutable so I'll start with the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which is in the middle of their Festival of the South race days. Oaklawn is a very fair track in that early pace horses have won only 53% of the route races over a mile, with only 23% winning wire to wire. Those are really low numbers for a dirt track.

Ten are entered, and in a race where over half the field has derby points, the favorite has none.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

#6 Heaven's Runway - Returns off layoff after a distant 3rd in the Southwest Stakes at 59-1. His two wins in eight tries have come in polytrack sprints. In 3 races of 1 mile or he's finished 10, 11 and 13 lengths back. He's just not a good fit here. Probably won't get the front here either with Oxbow on his outside.

#10 Oxbow - Comes back of his game 2nd in the Rebel, where he got nipped late by Will Take Charge, who chose not to return to Oaklawn. Probably has enough points to get to Churchill. This time Gary Stevens gets the mount, an interesting choice since he's not had a lot of success in the preps in his comeback. Will go to the lead and carry them as far as he can. Has never gone the full 9 furlongs yet. Pretty good bet to finish run on and finish top 4 but seems vulnerable to lay the 5-2 morning line odds.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#4 Falling Sky - 3rd to star Verrazano in the Tampa Derby following his win in the Sam F Davis. Needs to add to his 20 points. Trying Oaklawn for the first time, his last 3rd BRIS speed figures have been identical and about 10 lengths below what's needed to win this Grade 1. Gonna be a tall order for him to get it done today.

#2 War Academy - The favorite despite only 3 races under his belt, including a disappointing 4th in the Grade 2 San Vicente at 7 furlongs in February. Followed that up with a dominating effort in an optional claimer in March. Out of Giant's Causeway, the colt should relish the 9 panels. Throw Baffert in as the trainer, Mike Smith on the mount and you've got a horse well intended to perform in this spot. Whether he will is the question.

#3 Divine Ambition - Ran a pretty good 2nd to Crop Report in the Rushaway on Turfway's polytrack. His best efforts on dirt have been in the single turn 7 furlong races. His one route try on dirt was a distance 6th in the Sam F Davis. Seems quite deserving of his 20-1 odds.

#9 Overanalyze - Ships in from NY for Pletcher but gets Cali Jockey Bejarano for the first time as Velazquez will ride in Kentucky. Not much dropoff there. Finished 5th in the Gotham but probably needed the race (his 2013 debut). If he's right he'll be tracking Oxbow and War Academy fairly close, looking to get first run at the top of the stretch and holding off the stretch runners late. Probably need to use.

#7 Texas Bling - Finished a pretty good 4th in the Rebel at 55-1. Has outrun his odds in three of his last four, all stakes. Probably not a win candidate but wouldn't be surprised if he runs 3rd or 4th as he stays on well in the stretch.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#5 Den's Legacy - A great also ran horse, has only two wins in eleven starts but has seven other in-the-money finishes, including his last four (all graded stakes). Produced his best BRIS speed number in the Rebel, where he finished 3rd beaten 2 lengths. He's run well into some pretty quick paces, which I think we'll see here. Could he pull off an upset? Might have a little too much work to do in the stretch.

#8 Frac Daddy - Ran his best races as a two year old. Was a non-factor in two Gulfstream stakes despite showing some good works there. First time at Oaklawn, would be a surprise. If he pulls an upset watchout next month as he's run well at Churchill.

#1 Carve - Assmussen tries this on again after his dull showing in the Rebel. This is still only the colts 4th race, so he could bounce back in a big way. The rail wasn't his friend last time out, gets it again here. He'll save ground but in the end he'll still need to pass most of the field in the last half mile working from the rail, a pretty tough task.

CLOSERS

There are no true one run closers in this race.

SUMMARY - Looks like it'll be the proven commodity in Oxbow vs the improving newcomer in War Academy, with Overanalyze trying to spoil the party late. I kinda like the Pletcher horse in this one over Baffert's. Den's Legacy and Texas Bling look like good candidates to fill out the exotics.
 
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Outside of the Derby and Breeders Cup there might not be a more difficult race to assess than this year's Blue Grass Stakes. You've got a full field of 14 running further than they've ever run, on a track most are unfamiliar with, a surface many have never run on before, with every horse in the field needing to be fully cranked as none have clinched a ticket to the Derby.

Being a polytrack Keeneland tends to show an advantage for closers. In the fall meet 7 out of 12 races run at 9 panels were won by closer types.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES - This race is lacking in traditional early speed horses, at least successful ones.

#3 Undrafted - Wes Welker's horse. Broke his maiden at 2 at Keeneland in a 4 1/2 furlong sprint. Worked his way up to the Gulfstream Derby at 1 mile in January, where he set a solid early pace before fading to solid Derby contender Itsmyluckyday and Sr Quisqueyano, who just won the Calder Derby last week. Finished a close third in both the Hutcheson and the Swale, two of the big Florida 7 furlong races. Would be surprised to seem him wire this field at the extra distance.

#12 West Hills Giant - Not really a front runner type until his last race, where he broke to the front in the Gotham and almost held on to wire the field at 33-1 until Vyjack nabbed him in the last half furlong. Has no polytrack experience but does have a turf win on the resume. Has not run as strong fractions on the lead as Undrafted, so he may not keep up and is likely to tire early.

#13 Rydilluc - The buzz horse, he comes out of three straight turf wins, including the Grade 3 Palm Beach. Has never run on polytrack, but connections are hoping his turf success translates. Speed figures on the turf were not impressive, so I'm skeptical.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE

#10 Footbridge - Just broke his maiden in his fourth try, all on dirt. Must have something in his pedigree to suggest he's worth moving up to a Grade 1 on polytrack. I don't really see it though. Loses Gomez on the mount and swtches to local rider Lanerie. He did give Sunland Derby winner Governor Charlie all he can handle two races back, so there's a little bit of talent at least.

#7 Uncaptured - A horse I really liked in the Spiral, where he was a game 2nd to Black Onyx. The race was on poly at 9 furlongs, so he really has a class and experience edge. Worked his way up winning multiple races on Woodbine's poly track, so he's pretty legit. Like him to get first run and maybe this time he can stay on for the win?

#5 Palace Malice - Another one of my favorites, got cooked by a furious pace in the LA Derby. If he can take to the poly ok he might find things more to his liking here. A little surprised that Gomez makes the trip from Cali to run for a NY based Pletcher horse, that's certainly a big positive. Should be able bounce back and run more like his four efforts previous to the Derby, where he never ran worse than 3 and posted two > 100 speed figures. I'm gonna have to use him in the mix again despite the polytrack worries.

OFF THE PACE TYPES

#4 Java's War - Ran a game but clear 2nd to Verrazano at 32-1 in the Tampa Bay Derby, his first start of 2013. May be able to move forward from there. Has a solid race at Keeneland on his resume, a 3rd in the Breeders Futurity behind Joha and Dynamic Sky, was 12-1 there. Also has finished behind Uncaptured, Frac Daddy and Dewey Square in the past. His only two wins were on turf. Now he's 4-1, which might be a little short to accept given his past odds in graded stakes, none of which he won.

#9 Tesseron - Claim to fame for this horse is his running within about two lengths of Black Onyx and Crop Report in February in a first level allowance. Has only 4 races under his belt: an opening maiden win where he had his best speed number, a 2nd in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes on the poly at Woodbine, a good fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, running ahead of Java's War, then the fourth noted above. Morning line of 50-1 looks way too high! Value play here.

#8 Charming Kitten - Wouldn't be a big race at Keeneland without a Ramsey's Kitten horse involved. This one has five quality turf results on his resume, along with one deceptive 9th place finish on the Keeneland main at last year's Breeders Futurity. Despite getting bumped hard when trying to close, he still managed to finish only about four lengths from winner Joha and three lengths and closer from Dynamic Sky and Java's War. Pletcher has this one running well, wouldn't surprise me if he's if the photo at the end.

#6 Channel Isle - 30-1 and really more worthy of the 50-1 that Tesseron got. Needed five tries to break his maiden, including a try on Keeneland main. Then was nowhere to be found in a stake at Remington Park won by Texas Bling over Will Take Charge. Came back this year to win a non-winner of two allowance that has hadn't any others come out of it well. Followed that up with non-threatening performances in the Southwest and Spiral. Nothing on that resume catches the eye.

CLOSERS

#1 Dynamic Sky - Tough gamer of a horse, had a tough loss 2nd in the Sam Davis, followed by a disappointing effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. Now he comes back to the surface he ran very well on as a 2 year old. Reminds me a little of Dullahan in that regard, who won here last year. Rosario to ride him a second time, may not be the best choice for a closer but you're certainly going to get a square price at 10-1. Could see him in the winner's circle.

#2 My Name is Michael - Was surprisingly dull in the Spiral after his 2 year old campaign showed his skills on the polytrack surface. Gets blinkers today along with a switch to Bridgomohan from Rosario. Could clunk up for 3rd or 4th but I don't see the explosive late kick you need from a closer in a 14 horse field.

#14 Fear the Kitten - Another Kitten's Joy colt, this one has lost by 4 lengths to Uncaptured, 13 lengths to Oxbow, 11 lengths to Super Ninety Nine and over 3 lengths to Black Onyx in his last four efforts. Have to respect the name and use him in exotics, but no reason to think he'll be getting his picture taken.

#11 Balance the Books - Nice colt out of Lemon Drop Kid has a nice turf pedigree, so no surprise his two year old campaign was all turf and quite good, including a solid 3rd in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Opened his 2013 campaign with a faltering 11th in the Spiral. Was it the polytrack that was the problem? Or did he just need a race? Hard to say. Leparoux gets off him and Castellano gets on, so that's interesting.

SUMMARY - Man this is a tough race. With 14 in the field you have to factor in the possiblity of some of the late runners just having awful trips to navigate. Also the fact that there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of speed leads me to look harder at the stalkers and less at the deep closers. IMO Uncaptured is the most talented presser in the field, and has every reason to move forward in his 2nd start this year. Also like Palice Malice to be right there, along with Dynamic Sky returning to his preferred surface, and give me Tesseron in the exotics to outrun his odds. If Java's War, Rydillic one of the Kittens wins it then so be it.
 
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Guess its time to start believing in Java's War. Pretty impressive to miss the break like he did, sit dead last as very reasonable fractions are set, and then explode in the stretch like that to win in the last few jumps. Need to see what the closing fractions were on that. Really thought Palice Malice had it mid-way through the stretch, happy to see him moving on to Churchill though. Charming Kitten shows how much form counts as he indeed finished in the photo at the end.

On the disappointing side, Uncaptured was sitting in the perfect spot to make his move off the far turn, but didn't fire. Dynamic Sky was a no-show, and I guess Tesseron deserve his 50-1 morning line.
 
Pletcher gets the best of Baffert as Overanalyze sits well off the hot pace set by Divine Ambition and Heaven's Runway and rolls down the stretch to a convincing win at Oaklawn. Frac Daddy is one to watch as he may be running back to his 2YO form just in time for a trip to Churchill, were he's run well before. Carve snuck into 3rd coming from well back.

War Academy was in position early to make a move but he faded. Den's Legacy made a big move on the far turn to get to the front but as usual couldn't get it done in the stretch. No idea what happened to Oxbow, he was a non-factor.
 
Current top 20

Orb - 150
Verrazano -150
Goldencents - 129
Java's War - 122
Revolutionary - 110
Overanalyze - 110
Lines of Battle - 100
Vyjack - 70
Will Take Charge - 60
Palace Malice - 50
Itsmyluckyday - 50
Black Onyx - 50
Governor Charlie - 50
Frac Daddy - 44
Normandy Invasion - 44
My Lute - 42
Oxbow - 36
Uncaptured - 30
Super Ninety Nine - 30
Falling Sky - 30

Merit Man holds 21st spot with 20 pts and tiebreaker edge
 
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Word is Uncaptured is being taken off the derby trail, and Merit Man and Den's Legacy are passing as well, which moves Charming Kitten into the field of 20. Also, Departing is running in the Illinois Derby next weekend, which takes him off the alternates list. Revised list below.

Orb - 150
Verrazano -150
Goldencents - 129
Java's War - 122
Revolutionary - 110
Overanalyze - 110
Lines of Battle - 100
Vyjack - 70
Will Take Charge - 60
Palace Malice - 50
Itsmyluckyday - 50
Black Onyx - 50
Governor Charlie - 50
Frac Daddy - 44
Normandy Invasion - 44
My Lute - 42
Oxbow - 36
Super Ninety Nine - 30
Falling Sky - 30
Charming Kitten - 20

ALTERNATES
Code West - 20
Tiz a Minister - 20
Golden Soul - 14
Power Broker - 10
 
Baffert pulls Super Ninety Nine and Code West off the trail, AND GOVENOR CHARLIE BEING HELD FOR PREAKNESS. Also Tiz a Minister ran on Saturday and is questionable for 5/4.

Orb - 150
Verrazano -150
Goldencents - 129
Java's War - 122
Revolutionary - 110
Overanalyze - 110
Lines of Battle - 100
Vyjack - 70
Will Take Charge - 60
Palace Malice - 50
Itsmyluckyday - 50
Black Onyx - 50
Frac Daddy - 44
Normandy Invasion - 44
My Lute - 42
Oxbow - 36
Falling Sky - 30
Charming Kitten - 20
Tiz a Minister - 20??????
Golden Soul - 14

After that its anybody's guess who would fill the 20th slot.
 
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Hard to imagine a slow pace in the Derby but there's not really a lot of natural early speed in this race. There might be just enough however.

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

Falling Sky - Has led 2 of 3 graded stakes this year at the second call, was 2nd back a length in the other. Here's an example of how speed and class intersect: Falling Sky's Bris Speed rating has been 92 or 91 each of his last four races. In that time he's gone from an optional claimer, to a Grade 3 stake, to a Grade 2, to a Grade 1. That consistent speed rating won the OC by 1 3/4 lengths, won the Grade 3 by a neck, finished 3rd in the Grade 2 back 7 lengths, and finished 4th in the Grade 1 back 5 lengths. Now he's in basically a super Grade 1. Without a significant improvement he's a cinch to finish somewhere mid-pack or lower. Has the 2nd worst stretch rating in the race as well.

Giant Finish - About the 42nd option to fill the final post this year. Ran a game 3rd at 23 to 1 to Black Onyx in the Spiral. Has run first or second in each of his 3 races in 2013, stamping him as an early horse. Best speed efforts came on the Turfway Park poly, but his two wins were at Aqueduct (which explains the Dutrow connection). Is not in the class or speed level of the favorites, but will help keep the pace honest. That's good news/bad news for the likes of Orb, Java's War, Overanalyze, Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion. On the one hand they get a better pace to run at, on the other there's one more traffic pylon to work around or check up against.

Oxbow - Ran a horrid race in the Arkansas Derby, being taken back early for the first time in his race career, then flattening out in the stretch and passing tired horses to finish 5th. Bad last result makes it hard to use him here, but if he reverts back to the style of a pace leader he might be able to carry this field a long way. Don't see him winning but he could be this year's Shackleford and hang on to 3rd or 4th. If he takes back again then he's likely got no chance. Interesting Stat - horses that finished worse than fourth last time out are only 2 for 54 in hitting the board since 1991, with both finishing third.

RATING JUST OFF THE PACE - These guys figure to be within 1-3 lengths of the lead heading to the far turn.

Goldencents - Looked like he would be caught by Flashback in the stretch of the SA Derby, but was able to hold on for the win. Cali horses have been a notch below their 2012 levels. Runs tough in the lane, has improved nicely in this three 2013 races. Tied for 2nd with best BRIS speed number and also tied with Orb as having the highest class rating in his last. He's a definite contender and needs to be used liberaly in all exotic spots.

Itsmyluckyday - Holy Bull winner was the favorite in the Fla Derby and looked to have everything going his way until Orb ran him off the track. Still his Bris speed number of 111 in the Gulfstream Derby on Jan 1 was the fastest speed posted by any horse in the Derby field, and his 106 in the Holy Bull tied for the 2nd fastest with Goldencents SA Derby run. There's a real question as to whether he'll be able to sustain for the full 10 furlongs, but he'll definitely be forwardly placed throughout the first mile plus, which makes him dangerous. Plus you'll get double digits odds on him.

Verrazano - Still a little green, the Derby is only his fifth race, so there's still room to improve. Has done everything asked of him in going four for four, but there's plenty of doubters still. Figures to be the second choice behind Orb. Ran very nicely down the stretch in both graded stakes wins, losing only 1 1/2 lengths in the stretch to Java's War in Tampa despite setting all the fractions, and closing with enough vigor in the Wood to hold off late charging Normandy Invasion after 9 furlongs. Gets Johnny V in the saddle which is a big plus, as he's great gauging pace. If he can outduel Itsmyluckday and Goldencents early in the stretch, he may be far enough in front to hold off the late runners.

Mylute - Comes in off a huge effort in the LA Derby, running 10 points better than he's ever run. Unfortunately that makes him a bounce candidate. Will be a bit of an underlay thanks to having Rosie on board. Is reportedly looking great on the track, so maybe there's hope yet. Has never shown an ability to gain in the stretch against stakes company, which makes him tough to endorse here considering he'll have to track down the big 3 just ahead of him.

Palace Malice - Rated a mid-pack "P" horse on paper, but he's consistently run early within the first five in big graded stakes fields, even with a patient rider like Gomez on him. Like Mylute he always seems to hang in the stretch, which is how you end up finishing 12th in the Derby. His best speed figures have come in sprints, his route numbers don't fit well here.

OFF THE PACE TYPES - These horses figure to sit around 3-5 lengths back heading to the far turn. Positioning starts getting critical here, as you'll need to give your horse a chance to make a move on the far turn while avoiding front runners that will be slowing down.

Black Onyx - Could be argued that he belongs at the back of the just off the pace group based on his Spiral run. Clockers say he's been looking pretty good. But his speed number in the Spiral was a half dozen lengths behind the 100 point race winners and several lengths behind what Animal Kingdom did in winning the Spiral. He's no Animal Kingdom, but he's not awful. He's never been rated highly by the betting public, and he won't be here. Interesting Stat - Horses that went to post at odds of 15-1 or greater in their last pre-Derby start are only 2 for 54 in finishing in the money since 1992. Black Onyx was 15-1 in his Spiral win. Others in this race with that condition are Charming Kitten, Frac Daddy, Golden Soul, Mylute and Will Take Charge.

Overanalyze - Enigmatic colt ran big in what has been graded as a slow Arkansas Derby. Before that he was a dull fifth as the favorite in the Gotham. Before that he was 2 for 4 in graded stakes as a 2 year old, running a Derby quality speed number in the Remsen. There's no denying his talent, and with this just his 3rd race in 2013, he may be sitting on a big effort. Has shown very good ability in the stretch and has two 9 furlong wins. Odds figure to be in the high teens, which makes him a very attractive longshot.

Lines of Battle - Weakened in the lane to finish 7th in the BC Juvenile Turf, his only other time running in the US. Has only run once in 2013, winning the UAE Derby against what's now considered a relatively weak field. Has never run on dirt, and is only going to have a couple of days to test out the Churchill track. Just too many negatives and historical trends working against this one to make it worth spending a nickel on him.

Vyjack - Plucky battler may try to be closer to the pace than I have him here, although his best performance came from his 8th place start in the Gotham. Couldn't pass Verrazano in the Wood, then got passed late by Normandy Invasion. I can see him running about 7th or 8th here before trying to make a far turn move, running into Verrazano, Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday, battling for a bit then flattening out in the stretch and fading late.

Charming Kitten - Ramsey horse was a sneaky exotics play in the Blue Grass at 22/1 based on his 5 starts as a favorite in stakes races on turf and synthetic, finishing first once, with two seconds and a 3rd. Has never tried dirt before, watchers are saying he looks just ok. His speed numbers to date make him non-competitive, although he could run on in the stretch and maybe catch a piece. Past longshot angle works against him.

Orb - Buzz has been steadily growing to the point where this FL Derby winner may be the race favorite. Has beaten well thought of horses Revolutionary, Violence and Itsmyluckday in his last four, making huge moves on the far turn and basically rolling past in the stretch with momentum on his side. The tricky part is he tends to start midpack at best through the first call. You risk getting a bad trip when you do this in a field of 20, with probably a dozen or so wanting to be closer to the front. Gets the hottest jockey in the country on him in Rosario, who will probably try to keep him wide throughout, sacrificing distance travelled for a cleaner trip. Interesting Stat - Of the last 68 horses to enter with a Quirin Speed number of 3 or less, only two have finished in the top two. Needs to be respected but probably worth trying to beat.

Will Take Charge - Has not run since his upset of Oxbow in the Rebel at 28-1, otherwise he'd be a bounce candidate. His close in the Rebel from 2 1/2 lengths back in the stretch is uncharacteristic of a horse who's tended to be either even or a slight fade down the lane. Actually if you look at his entire body of work he's shown steady improvement in his seven races with the exception of two potholes. The most recent was in the slop in the Southwest, which can be excused. The other was in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, which is worrisome. He's also the only horse in the field that hasn't gone at least 9 furlongs, which is another big concern. Probably figures to be an also-ran.

Frac Daddy - What makes him dangerous is he's the one horse in the field with a pair of credible route efforts on the Churchill dirt. What's doesn't make him a threat are his slow 3 year old speed numbers and the fact that he was a non-factor in the FL Derby and also a distant 2nd to
Overanalyze in a slow Arkansas Derby. Always seems to lose ground in the stretch too. No thanks.

Revolutionary - Seems like the most likely horse IMO to finish in the money. The lightswitch kicked on for this colt on the inner at Aqueduct in his fourth maiden try with a dominating win over next out winner Transparent. Then he was breathtaking working through traffic to win the Withers at the wire. Followed that up with a huge middle move in the LA Derby to go from 12th on the backstretch to the lead in the stretch, then still managed to have enough in the tank to hold off Mylute and finish 3 lengths ahead of Illinois Derby winner Departing. Yes he hung in the stretch as a maiden while losing to Orb. But after Itsmyluckyday he's got the best matched pair of speed figures. Classy pedigree too. And if it gets muddy move him way up.

CLOSERS - This group has a big hill to climb in that they'll need to pass a good 15 horses in the last half of the race to reach the wire first. That leads to plenty of pitfalls, traps and troubled trips. The good news is that if past history is any guide we'll see at least one of these four finish in the top four.
Java's War - Maybe the best closer in the race, either him or Normandy Invasion. Had an eye popping run in the Blue Grass after being left at the break and still was in last about 9 lengths back with just three furlongs to go. Made up almost 6 lengths in the stretch, a huge number, and the pace early in the race was only average so the leaders were still running. Before that he made up almost 2 lengths on Verrazano in the Tampa Bay stretch run. Overall speed figures do not suggest him to be a win contender IMO, but he certainly merits consideration for the other in the money slots.

Normandy Invasion - The other big-time closer, rallied 7 lengths from the 2nd call in the Remsen, then passed slower horses while gaining positions in the Risin Star. Also was coming hard in the Remsen. The problem is whether he can make a good middle move to put himself into position to win. He hasn't really shown it in the past.

Golden Soul - Trailed by 18 lengths at the first call in the LA Derby and made a huge middle move to get within 3 lengths in the stretch before flattening and passing a couple of tired runners to finish fourth. Stayed closer to the pace in the Risen Star and found himself gasping in the stretch before finishing 6th. Before that was the best of a badly beaten lot in the LeComte, finishing 2nd but 11 lengths behind Oxbow. Not the kind of resume that says contender, but if you're looking to add a bomb to clunk up for 4th in the super you can do a lot worse.
 
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As is Tiz a Minister.

Looks like Fear the Kitten may slip into that hot potato of a 20th slot. Basically the same as Tiz a Minister with less of a closing kick.

Right now my five win candidates are, in no particular order:

Goldencents
Verrazano
Itsmyluckyday
Overanalyze
Revolutionary

Also looking at the following to fill out lower spots in the exotics:

Orb
Java's War
Normandy Invasion
Mylute
 
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