Will not be around on Saturday, but fwiw...
CD 5/4
Race #9: Im against the fav (8) Trinniberg, have a live longshot with (6) Pass the Dice and will also be using (5) Unbridled's Note.
Race #9 Pk 3: 5,6 maybe 9 (but will possibly duel early w/ #8)/8,9 can't see anything else/5,12,16,19
if i play pk 4's starting w/ Race #8: Hard to get pass 5 and 8, my longshot is #7 and possibly throw in #6
Derby: Win bets #5 and #19, and boxing exactas with 5,12,16,19
Bol fellas :shake:
Thanks for the Pick 3 thoughts. Heading out in a bit myself.
Race 9 I can't ignore Trinniberg, I did that at Breeders Cup and it bit me. Agree that the 6 has a shot if the pace melts the 8 and 9, also the 2 could contend on the cutback in distance and 7 is 2 for 4 at the distance and has the best late kick. Not sure what to do with Unbridled's Note, he's talented but I kinda like him better on grass. Class edge clearly belongs to 8 & 9.
"A" horses - 8,9 "B" horses - 2,6,7
In the Woodford the whole world will be on Wise Dan and Point of Entry, and for good reason. Most of the rest of the field have similar running styles as well, so they'll have a hard time outclassing the 8 and 9. The best horse that goes against the early/presser running style is one-run closer Jeranimo (6), so I'll probably have a backup ticket with him.
"A" - 8,9 "B" - 6
For the Derby its a question of how long the early big 3 of Goldencents, Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday can last. I'm trying to equate something to last year's race but IMO none of these 3 are quite up to Bodemeister's freakishness. Itsmyluckyday came maybe the closest in the Holy Bull, but has not been recently. Verrazano needs some respect given how well Pletcher had his fillies cranked yesterday (1-3-4 in the Oaks).
The track played against frontrunners yesterday, but who knows what it will play like with the weather. I'll have to watch the earlier races closely for clues. Two things I'm going to carry with me from the Oaks are class ratings and stretch kick. Here's how I break it down:
Early pace horses
Good class and stretch numbers - Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday, Goldencents
Good stretch numbers - Mylute (move up if off track), Vyjack
Mid-late horses
Good class and stretch numbers - Orb, Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion
Good stretch numbers - Java's War, Revolutionary (move up if off track), Charming Kitten
Mystery longshots - Lines of Battle (move up if off track), Golden Soul
If the track plays like it did yesterday I'll go 5, 9, 16 for the win.
If they seal the track then its 3, 12, 14 for the win.
