Thursday Independence Day MLB Discussion

yepp..should be interesting how he responds..

btw good calls last night, saw some idiot tried to call you out on "saving" money

i think it was more of a it's not worth it to gamble on that shit team rather than him calling me an idiot. Regardless, i've been called worse

2-0 +2.6u in one day for a flat bettor is :goal:
 
Thursday 7/4

Year-Over/Under-Runs Per Game

Barksdale, Lance - CLEVELAND/KANSAS CITY

2013 - 8-7 - 9.50 rpg
2012 - 13-20 - 7.40 rpg
2011 - 9-13 - 7.36 rpg
2010 - 13-19 - 8.85 rpg
2009 - 17-17 - 9.54 rpg

Conroy, Chris - PHILADELPHIA/PITTSBURGH

2013 - 7-9 - 7.40 rpg
2012 - 17-13 - 9.60 rpg
2011 - 11-5 - 10.62 rpg
2010 - 0-1 - 3.00 rpg

Cooper, Eric - SEATTLE/TEXAS

2013 - 4-11 - 7.80 rpg
2012 - 17-17 - 8.70 rpg
2011 - 18-14 - 8.59 rpg
2010 - 15-17 - 8.68 rpg
2009 - 18-14 - 9.84 rpg

Culbreth, Fieldin - SAN FRANCISCO/CINCINNATI

2013 - 8-8 - 8.20 rpg
2012 - 13-24 - 7.00 rpg
2011 - 16-17 - 8.38 rpg
2010 - 21-12 - 9.43 rpg
2009 - 15-19 - 8.69 rpg

Davis, Gerry - MILWAUKEE/WASHINGTON

2013 - 7-8 - 9.10 rpg
2012 - 16-17 - 8.70 rpg
2011 - 18-13 - 8.69 rpg
2010 - 17-16 - 8.91 rpg
2009 - 13-19 - 9.50 rpg

DeMuth, Dana - SAN DIEGO/BOSTON

2013 - 5-7 - 8.10 rpg
2012 - 15-17 - 8.20 rpg
2011 - 26-8 - 10.38 rpg
2010 - 17-18 - 8.60 rpg
2009 - 17-17 - 9.86 rpg

DiMuro, Mike - MIAMI/ATLANTA

2013 - 12-4 - 10.1 rpg
2012 - 7-9 - 9.60 rpg
2011 - 18-13 - 9.52 rpg
2010 - 15-17 - 8.79 rpg
2009 - 15-17 - 8.91 rpg

Fletcher, Andy - BALTIMORE/CHICAGO

2013 - 8-7 - 8.40 rpg
2012 - 16-14 - 8.60 rpg
2011 - 19-13 - 8.94 rpg
2010 - 17-14 - 9.00 rpg
2009 - 10-21 - 8.32 rpg

Gorman, Brian - CHICAGO/OAKLAND

2013 - 3-2 - 7.80 rpg
2012 - 16-16 - 8.40 rpg
2011 - 20-12 - 8.88 rpg
2010 - 17-16 - 9.06 rpg
2009 - 13-18 - 8.44 rpg

Hamari, Adam - ST LOUIS/LOS ANGELES

2013 - 1-0 - 9.00 rpg

Hickox, Ed - NEW YORK/MINNESOTA

2013 - 11-4 - 10.3 rpg
2012 - 15-16 - 7.70 rpg
2011 - 15-18 - 8.24 rpg
2010 - 16-19 - 9.26 rpg
2009 - 1-2 - 14.33 rpg

Layne, Jerry - DETROIT/TORONTO

2013 - 6-4 - 8.10 rpg
2012 - 17-14 - 8.50 rpg
2011 - 14-18 - 8.49 rpg
2010 - 11-20 - 8.25 rpg
2009 - 12-19 - 8.03 rpg

Reynolds, Jim - TAMPA BAY/HOUSTON

2013 - 10-9 - 8.30 rpg
2012 - 16-20 - 8.30 rpg
2011 - 15-17 - 8.58 rpg
2010 - 18-10 - 8.52 rpg
2009 - 18-11 - 9.72 rpg

Wegner, Mark - LOS ANGELES/COLORADO

2013 - 9-9 - 8.10 rpg
2012 - 16-19 - 8.90 rpg
2011 - 11-7 - 10.53 rpg
2010 - 15-10 - 8.81 rpg
2009 - 17-19 - 8.89 rpg

Welke, Tim - ARIZONA/NEW YORK

2013 - 8-9 - 8.00 rpg
2012 - 13-18 - 8.30 rpg
2011 - 20-14 - 9.56 rpg
2010 - 21-13 - 9.81 rpg
2009 - 16-11 - 11.25 rpg
 
great job GW, was w/ ya on cubbies but i wouldve mushed you for sure if i was on both...you likely woulda went 0-2 if i tailed...lol, bol today.
 
Hot pitchers
-- Hand is 0-1, 1.86 in two starts, but with only 9.2 IP.
-- Gee is 4-1, 2.68 in his last six starts.
-- Cain is 1-1, 1.56 in his last five starts. Leake is 2-0, 2.40 in his last four.
-- Cole is 4-0, 3.70 in his first four MLB starts (Pirates 29 runs).
-- Teheran is 2-1, 0.98 in his last three starts.
-- Chacin is 4-0, 1.26 in his last four starts.
-- Wainwright is 4-2, 1.97 in his last six starts. Blanton is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three outings.
-- Royals won last six Shields starts (1-0, 3.05). Jimenez is 2-0, 3.43 in his last four starts.
-- Gibson won first MLB start, allowing two runs in six IP.
-- Archer is 1-0, 3.27 in his last two starts.
-- Rogers is 2-1, 2.43 in six starts this season.
-- Perez is 2-0, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Jordan allowed three runs in 4.1 IP (84 PT) in his first MLB start.
-- Kennedy is 0-1, 7.40 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
-- Alvarez is making first '13 start; he is 10-17, 4.41 in 41 starts last couple of years; he was 2-0, 1.11 in four rehab starts in minors.
-- Capuano is 1-3, 5.68 in his last five starts.
-- Webster is 0-2, 10.00 in four starts. Stults is 0-1, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Cubs lost Wood's last five starts (0-4, 3.34) scoring 10 runs.
-- Phelps is 1-2, 9.64 in his last three starts.
-- Lyles is 0-2, 12.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Quintana is 0-0, 5.10 in his last five starts. Britton is 2-2, 4.50 in four starts this season.
-- Verlander is 0-1, 6.00 in his last three starts.
-- Iwakuma is 0-2, 5.40 in his last three starts.
Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Hand 0-2; Jordan 0-1
-- Kennedy 6-15; Gee 4-16
-- Cain 6-17; Leake 2-16
-- Hamels 3-17; Cole 1-4
-- Alvarez 0-0; Teheran 7-15
-- Capuano 2-9; Chacin 2-15
-- Stults 3-17; Webster 3-4
-- Wood 1-16; Parker 6-17
-- Wainwright 4-17; Blanton 6-16
-- Jimenez 5-16; Shields 7-17
-- Phelps 3-11; Gibson 0-1
-- Archer 2-6; Lyles 4-12
-- Britton 1-4; Quintana 6-16
-- Verlander 4-17 (0 of last 6); Rogers 1-6
-- Iwakuma 5-17; Perez 2-3
Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Washington home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven New York games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Cincinnati home games.
--
Five of their last six Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine San Diego games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Cub games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Angels' last six games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Texas games stayed under the total.
--
Four of last five Kansas City games went over total.
-- Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Bronx road games.
-- Under is 13-6-2 in last twenty-one Houston home games.
-- Seven of last nine Baltimore games stayed under total.
Hot teams
-- Pirates won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Cincinnati won four of its last five games.

-- Mets are 7-0 in game following their last seven losses.
-- Marlins won nine of their last twelve games. Atlanta won six of last eight.
-- Dodgers won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight games.
-- A's/Cubs both won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won seven of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last nine home games.
-- Texas won nine of its last 13 games. Seattle is 5-4 in last nine road games.
-- Indians won five of their last six games.
-- Bronx won its last three games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last ten games.
-- Orioles won five of their last six games.
Cold teams
-- Phillies are 10-13 in their last 23 games.
-- Washington lost three of last four home games; they scored one run in last two games. Brewers lost six of their last nine games, but won last two.
-- Giants lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last eight games.

-- Padres lost nine of their last eleven games.

-- Cardinals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Detroit lost six of its last nine games.
-- Royals are 0-5 in game following their last five wins.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost seven of its last nine games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last seven games.
Umpires
-- Mil-Wsh-- Favorites won five of last six Davis games.
-- Phil-Pitt-- Home team won 14 of last 16 Conroy games.
-- Mia-Atl-- Underdogs are 8-5 in last thirteen Dimuro games.
-- SF-Cin-- Favorites won 10 of last 12 Culbreth games.
-- Az-NY-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven TWelke games.
-- LA-Colo-- Underdogs won five of last six Wegner games.
-- SD-Bos-- Under is 8-4 in last twelve Demuth games. .
-- Chi-A's-- Underdogs won last three Gorman games.
-- StL-LAA-- Hamari's first MLB game behind the plate went over.
-- Det-Tor-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Layne games.
-- Blt-Chi-- Last five Fletcher games went over the total.
-- Sea-Tex-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Cooper games.
-- TB-Hst-- Underdogs won 14 of last 19 Reynolds games.
-- NY-Min-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Hickox games.
-- Cle-KC-- Favorites won eight of last eleven Barksdale games.
 
Last edited:
got some email from a pretty good capper saying the houston over is a 30-0 system play

take it fwiw
 
Have time today so hope that's a good thing

Really like the giants here. I still Leake has survived all to much. Some giants hit him well, in limited work better away then home vs sf ( significantly ) and huge gap in day v night splits but day splits are still solid just not exceptional. Cain has awful day splits but he is finding his form and as one of SF top pitchers always look for guys like him to end loing streaks

Giants ml 14u and +1.5 3u
F5 3u and ARL 2u
over SF TT 5u
over 5u and parlay 3u
 
Not really liking much though rest of the afternoon. Probably play twins as yanks wins hve been fortunate this series amd the unseen rookie gibson gives twins an edge
 
Yes, thanks I know green. Posey on my fantasy team seems to be smoking hot or frigid. Last week crushed it and this week nothing and seems to be alternating weeks like this for a few weeks.So I'll take him as a possi le PH and Scutaro since the injury not so much. Key here will be sandoval, pence and belt ..thanks GL today
 
Have time today so hope that's a good thing

Really like the giants here. I still Leake has survived all to much. Some giants hit him well, in limited work better away then home vs sf ( significantly ) and huge gap in day v night splits but day splits are still solid just not exceptional. Cain has awful day splits but he is finding his form and as one of SF top pitchers always look for guys like him to end loing streaks

Giants ml 14u and +1.5 3u
F5 3u and ARL 2u
over SF TT 5u
over 5u and parlay 3u

Switch this up a tad

Giants ml 16u and +1.5 just 2u
Giants TT over 7u

Big thing is reds swinging no better really of late barely crackin 4 in any of the past 10 games except vs kickham and tepesch. Despite chasing Timmy and Zito early still scored just 3 runs
 
Oh ok. Good Luck

Adding over @ boston 7u--- stults under streal ended and he struggled vs a miami team who had struggled vs lefties and boston same type situation imo. Huge difference is Fenway not a good park for LHreally ...

Twins ml 6u -- yanks resting gardner...played this 2 nites ago and passed yesterday. Hate the fact that twins are trying to avoid a sweep in some ways but twins should hve probably won yesyerday
 
just a warning -

blankets survivor contest has 2 guys on 17 picks, 1 guy on 16 picks. The fall off rate between their streaks as they stand and reaching 20+ is high. All 3 are favouring MLB picks, and today 2 are on Cincy, 1 on Texas.

From here on out almost guaranteed these guys are going to jump on -125 to -130 teams to try & get to 21 in a row (then 25).
 
AAlso looking at phillies....no doubt Cole is talented but he has allowed more hits then inn in 3 of 4 and doesn't h e a strikeout pitch despite great velocity. Philly gave Hamels a couple extra days and not sure that helps and its a day start not usually his best situation ...
 
Must be drunk already...Just took the Over 10, -130 in Boston to pound town...Happy 4th Fuckers!
 
BOS over reasoning:
-Don't think Webster is MLB quality based on how poor he's been this year, think the Padres get to him today. Stults is a crafty LHP, but i think the BoSox figure him out early and get to the Pads bullpen first.
HOU reasoning:
-Was hoping for a game to avoid the sweep, but I'm not a Chris Archer believer and I think he'll struggle with a tight K-zone behind the plate. Rays probably take this one, but Jordan Lyles can do it from time to time
 
Good Luck bro have it @ 10-120 myself...

Can't pass on Phillies +125 ...6u and arl 1u

So you can take Hamels at +125 vs the Pitts urgh Pirates...that alone has me hooked because doubt it's dawned on very many bettors
 
BOS over reasoning:
-Don't think Webster is MLB quality based on how poor he's been this year, think the Padres get to him today. Stults is a crafty LHP, but i think the BoSox figure him out early and get to the Pads bullpen first.
HOU reasoning:
-Was hoping for a game to avoid the sweep, but I'm not a Chris Archer believer and I think he'll struggle with a tight K-zone behind the plate. Rays probably take this one, but Jordan Lyles can do it from time to time

That's what I think about Stults also, crafty lefty and green monster are a poor combination. No real opinion on webster twice awful nd twice fairly decent but no game has shown less then 5 opposing runs ..
 
Good Luck bro have it @ 10-120 myself...

Can't pass on Phillies +125 ...6u and arl 1u

So you can take Hamels at +125 vs the Pitts urgh Pirates...that alone has me hooked because doubt it's dawned on very many bettors

i played phi ff, garrent cole hasnt been all that great, just didnt want any part of biggest mismatch in the gm, pit pen vs phils pen...
 
Seattle is 2-10 SU this season playing off 2 SU wins in their previous 2 games, with those games going 9-2-1 to Over (avg 9.66 rpg). 8 of the 10 losses were by 2+ runs.

Seattle has scored 4+ runs in 3 straight games, for only the 4th time this season. Off the 3 previous streaks, they've lost 2-10, 1-6 & 2-4.
 
Guess one thing I hate about fading the yanks today is it old George's bday, sort of a special day imo bit at least they are not home....fuckin 3 0years since Rags no no where does time go?
 
Also 40th anniversary of the year Steinbrenner bought the team. For $10 million.
 
Colorado this season off 3 straight losses...
has gone 0-3 SU when held to 1 run or less
has gone 7-0 SU when allowed to score at least 2 runs: avg TT of 6.43 rpg, 6 wins by 2+ runs.
 
Just the year anniversary ... I don't think he bought the team on the 4th. I just remember seeing a blurb earlier this season it was 40 years ago.
 
White Sox have avg'd 5.00 TT rpg & gone 7-2 SU this season playing @home off a home game in which they were held to 2 runs or less.

Balty is 4-12 SU (11-5 to Over) their last 16 instances of playing a road game off a SU win.
 
Just the year anniversary ... I don't think he bought the team on the 4th. I just remember seeing a blurb earlier this season it was 40 years ago.

Sorry just read it quick and incorrectly. You were actually clear the first time. Guess I thought with his huge sized ego it wouldn't be surprising if he did the deal on his bday but then again he wasn't exactly the BOSS before ow ing the yanks. It had to be odd to witness the yanks from the mid /late 60's to early 70's or maybe not to different from the early 90s yanks...born in 74 the yanks were always good maybe not world champ good but solid. The evil empire probably really started to take root in 1985 but guess since FA frenzies began in the late 1970s the evil empire was slowly on its way..
 
I tried taking the rays at the last moment and it was OTB...honestly forgot how bad Lyles was in day games...then my conversation w tuck the other day jumped I to my mind --- always look to fade houston in day games...lol

PS -- loved that NBA got a tout messgae citing a 30-0 over trend for houston game today. Really doesn't take a genius or gambler to see Archer vs Lyles and his 7career ERA in day games and thi k hmmmm over 9 seems like a good play..

Just think its funny how the obvious seems to be so often overlooked and need for a trend or something seems to be more validating ...

And has nothing to do w NBA just a general comment on things I see regarding gambling ..
 
He was a Clevelander, born and bred, family still has a house on Lake Road in Bay Village, I believe. His reign coincided with the darkest ages of Indians baseball, so Steinbrenner's the anti-prodigal son here, just one more reason to hate the New York Yankees.
 
I think I would enjoy having BetCrimes next to me spewing all this research data. All the shit my mind subconsciously notices when I look at logs for teama and pitchers but he puts it so precisely. Makes me think I'm mot crazy..lol..
 
He was a Clevelander, born and bred, family still has a house on Lake Road in Bay Village, I believe. His reign coincided with the darkest ages of Indians baseball, so Steinbrenner's the anti-prodigal son here, just one more reason to hate the New York Yankees.

When I was young used to read so much about the yanks, the players, the history, the steinbrenner's, etc....probably forgotten most of it ...remember his family was ohio shipbuilding fortune or something so did he ever have a chance to buy the Tribe or was there any story to why he chose the yanks? Other then being dirt cheap..I mean is 10 million even 100million inflation adjusted ....wtf..

I loved and hated steinbrenner as a kid growing up and for my time I was kinda a super fan. You k ow Tippy we grew up w baseball digest and yearly magazines not the Internet or really even cable to learn about our interests. Point being I always hated the way he treated the managers in the 80s Martin and Berra especially, the whole Wi field - Spira situation because winfield and guidry were my idols growing up and just because he presented himself as w a more Manhaytan attitude then say a NY borough..even though he was an ohio guy
 
scrubbies/A's ov 8 looks pretty good. oak scores off lefties and wood def been pitching over his head, this lineup and a dh should be enough to get to him.. straily recalled from minors and scrubbies offense been pretty good vs righties of late and playing to the over quite a bit on this dh trip..
 
i played phi ff, garrent cole hasnt been all that great, just didnt want any part of biggest mismatch in the gm, pit pen vs phils pen...

Can't believe they had 5 hits in 3 inn and couldn't score so naturally pitt goes up 2-0 b3
 
Steinbrenner wanted to, attempted to buy the Indians in the early seventies, and the Indians were wallowing, almost out of the baseball business back then. Vernon Stouffer (yes, the mac and cheese, french bread pizza guy) owned the team back then, and really the only thing that stood in the way of Steinbrenner buying the Indians rather than the Yankees was that Stouffer didn't like the guy. It wasn't business, just personal.
 
Interesting story . I definitely can appreciate the fact the guy didn't sell his team to someone he disnt like. That's something lost in today's world, were everyone sells out for $$$$...the municipal stadium days...Len Barker, Andre Thornton, Julio Franco as a middle IF, hell I can't even name to many guys off the top of my head because they were so bad for so long...probably lost on people is how the movie major league was in a sense realistic using the Indians franchise
 
Loved Grover, the Human Rain Delay. And the man at the helm in the '90's Renaissance.

I won't say I was at Ten Cent Beer Night in 1974 (I was only four years old then), and I didn't see Frank Robinson's game winning home run on opening day as a player manager in the tomato red unies, and I won't be one of the one million who claim to have been at Len Barker's perfect game before an attendance of about 10,000 maybe, but that old stadium had some character. Saw Cecil Fielder homer thrice there on a steamy night. Saw Roger Clemens as a rook. Saw the last game, I believe Carlos Baerga made the last out recorded at the old place trying to stretch a single into a double. Tribe lost, fittingly.
 
Back
Top